IOE ENTRANCE

As per Updated Syllabus

Statistics & Probability

Part - 3
– Prajeet K. Timalsina
Topics to discuss under Probability
▪ Basic Probability
✓ Defining terminologies
✓ Cards and dice related calculations
✓ Events in favor and against
✓ Use of combination
✓ Applying theorems of probability
▪ Conditional Probability
▪ Bayes’ Theorem
▪ Binomial Distribution
Probability
▪ The probability is the chance or possibility or likelihood of
occurring or not occurring an event under an experiment
having the numerical value from 0 to 1.
▪ For sure events the probability will be 1 and for impossible
events the probability will be 0.
▪ Initially, the application of probability was made by
European mathematicians.
▪ Mathematically it can be expressed as:

M Where,
P (A) = M = Total no. of favorable events
N N = Total no. of possible event
P(A) = Probability of event A
About Playing Cards
Total Cards = 52

Black = 26 Red = 26

Spade = 13 Club = 13 Heart = 13 Diamond = 13

Ace Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten Jack Queen King
(A) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (J) (Q) (K)

Some facts about playing cards:

a. Jack card is also known as Knave card.
b. There are 4 cards in each category of card from ace to king.
c. There are 12 face cards or court card or picture cards consisting 4 jacks, 4 queens and 4 kings.
Probability of Events in Favor and Against
If odds in favour of an event are a : b then the probability of A is obtained as:
a
P (A) =
a+b
Similarly,
If odds against of an event are a : b then the probability of A is obtained as:
b
P (A) =
a+b
Where
a = Front value of ratio (i.e., success)
b = Back value of ratio (i.e., failure)
Use of Combination under Probability
If two or more events are to be selected at a time (i.e. Random),
then in that condition we should use combination (ncr) for
determining favorable case (M) and possible case (N) under
probability.

𝐧!
ncr =
𝐫! 𝐧 − 𝐫 !

Where,
n = total events
r = required events
! = factorial (product from n to 1)
Theorems of Probability
▪ The theorems of probability must be applied
at that condition when the probability of
happening or not happening events are
already given in the question.
▪ There are two theorems of probability and
they are given below:
1. Multiplicative Theorem
2. Additive Theorem
Multiplicative Theorem:
If the terms like both, all & and are given, then in
that case we use multiplicative theorem

For example:

P(A and B) = P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)

P(A, B and C) = P(A  B  C) = P(A)  P(B)  P(C)

Additive Theorem:
▪ If the terms like at least, one of them & Either - or
are given, then in that case we use additive theorem.
▪ There are two conditions for applying additive
theorem.
1. For Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(A or B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)

2. For Mutually Inclusive Events:

P(A or B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

P(at least 1) = 1 – (none)

 MCQs
for Practice
Question 1:
A deck of playing cards contains 52 cards.
What is the probability of drawing a knave
card of red?
A. 1/4
B. 1/13
C. 1/26
D. 1/52
Correct Answer: C (2/52 = 1/26)
Question 2:
You randomly select a letter from the word
"P R O B A B I L I T Y." What is the probability of
selecting a vowels?
A. 4/11
B. 3/11
C. 5/11
D. 6/11
Correct Answer: A (4/11)
Question 3:
If two dice are rolled, what is the probability
that the sum of the numbers is 8?
A. 5/36
B. 4/36
C. 7/36
D. 1/6
Correct Answer: A (5/36 )
Question 4:
An urn contains 8 red balls and 5 green balls.
What is the probability of drawing a green ball after
drawing a red ball if the balls are not replaced?
A. 40/169
B. 10/39
C. 5/20
D. 8/12
Correct Answer: B (8/13 x 5/12 = 10/39)
Question 5:
Three fair coins are tossed once. Find the
probability of occurrence of two heads.
A. 1/8
B. 1/4
C. 3/8
D. 7/8
Correct Answer: C (3/8)
Question 6:
Tickets numbered from 1 to 20 are mixed
up together and then a ticket is drawn at
random. What is the probability that the
ticket has a number of 4 and 5 multiple.
A. 1/10
B. 1/20
C. 1/5
D. 1/4
Correct Answer: B (1/20)
Question 7:
What is the probability of giving a child
birth by a pregnant woman on Sunday of a
week?
A. 4/7
B. 1/7
C. 2/7
D. None of above
Correct Answer: B (1/7)
Question 8:
What is the probability that leap year
selected at random will contain 53 Sundays.
A. 2/7
B. 3/7
C. 4/7
D. None of above
Correct Answer: A (2/7)
Question 9:
In a company out of 40 people i.e. 25 men
and 15 women apply for two vacancies,
what is the probability that both men are
selected.
A. 0.625
B. 0.375
C. 0.385
D. 0.685
Correct Answer: C (25c2 / 40c2 = 0.385)
Question 10:
The odds against A speaking the truth are 4 : 3
while the odds in favor of B speaking the truth
are 5 : 4. What is the probability that A and B
contradict each other in stating the same fact?
A. 0.51
B. 0.24
C. 0.76
D. 0.49
Correct Answer: A (32/63 = 0.508)
Question 11:
A card is drawn at random from a well
shuffled pack of cards. What is the
probability that it is a spade card or a king
card?
A. 0.307
B. 0.327
C. 0.207
D. 0.227
Correct Answer: A (16/52 = 0.307)
Question 12:
One bag contains 7 white and 5 red balls
and the other bag contains 6 white and 8
red balls. If one ball is drawn from each
bag, find the probability that one white and
one red.
A. 0.512
B. 0.333
C. 0.488
D. 0.667
Correct Answer: A (0.512)
Question 13:
Mr. A and Mr. B both are interested to attend in
a seminar of central department of statistics, T.U.
The chance of attending a seminar by Mr. A is
0.6 and that by Mr. B is 0.3. They both can also
attend the seminar with probability 0.18. What is
the probability that at least one of them will
attend the seminar?
A. 0.92
B. 0.90
C. 0.62
D. 0.72
Correct Answer: D (0.72)
Question 14:
The probability of reading Kantipur daily by
a person is 0.60 and that of Nagarik daily is
0.40. If the probability reading Kantipur or
Nagarik daily by that person is 0.70, what is
the probability of reading both types of
news paper by him.
A. 0.30
B. 0.50
C. 0.80
D. 0.20
Correct Answer: A (0.30)
Question 15:
If the probability of boy passing the examination is
0.60 and the probability of girls passing the
examination is 0.70. Find the probability that none of
them will pass the examination.
A. 0.18
B. 0.12
C. 0.42
D. 0.28
Correct Answer: B (0.12)
Question 16:
The salesman has a 40% chance of making a sale of
each customer. The behavior of successive
customers is independent. If two customers A and
B enter, what is the probability that the salesman
will make a sale to one of them?
A. 0.80
B. 0.24
C. 0.84
D. 0.64
Correct Answer: D (0.64)
Question 17:
A problem in statistics is given to three
students A, B and C whose chance of
solving it are 1/3, 1/4, 1/2 respectively. What
is the probability that the problem will be
solved?
A. 0.042
B. 0.958
C. 0.25
D. 0.75
Correct Answer: D (0.75)
Question 18:
If the probability of machine P, Q and R
working without failure are 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5
respectively in a production lot, find the
probability that the production lot will not
be interrupted.
A. 0.97
B. 0.03
C. 0.72
D. 0.28
Correct Answer: C (0.72)
Question 19:
The ratio of providing wrong information by
three secretaries of a minister is 2 : 3 : 4. The
minister is always supposed to make decision
on the basis of information provided by his
secretaries. Find the probability that the
minister’s decision is wrong.
A. 0.967
B. 0.712
C. 0.096
D. 0.288
Correct Answer: B (0.712)
Basic Terminologies
▪ Even Number:
Any integer (i.e. whole number) that can be divided by 2
is even number.
Example: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 20, 100 etc.
▪ Odd Number:
Any integer (i.e. whole number) that can’t be divided by
2 is odd number.
Example: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 15, 25, 49, 55 etc.
▪ Prime Number:
The natural number which has only two divisors: 1 and
itself is called prime number.
Example: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37, 41, 43,
47, 53, 59, etc.
▪ Experiment:
An action of operation which produces almost same results
or outcomes is called an experiment.
Example: If we perform an action under an identical
condition, then we get almost same result.
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▪ Random Experiment:
An action of operation which produces heterogeneous
results may known set of results is called random
experiment. It means, under random experiment, the
outcome cannot be predicted.
Example: Tossing a fair coin, rolling a fair die, drawing a
card from a deck of cards are some examples of
random experiment.
▪ Trial and Events:
Performing a random experiment is a trial and obtaining
the result is event. Event is also known as case.
Example: Tossing a fair coin is trial and getting head or
tail is event.
▪ Sample Space:
The set of all possible outcomes under a random
experiment is called sample space. It is denoted by "S".
Example: If we toss two unbiased coins simultaneously,
then the sample space can be given by:
S = (H, T) (H, T) = (HH, HT, TH, TT)
 No. of possible events (N) = 4
▪ Exhaustive Events (N):
The total possible events in an experiment are called exhaustive
events.
Example: In a case of toss of three fair coins, the exhaustive events
are : (2)3 = 8
In a case of rolling two dice once, the exhaustive events are :
(6)2 = 36
▪ Equally likely events:
If there are two or more events and all of them have equal chance of
occurrence, then they are called equally likely events.
Example: In a toss of a fair coin, getting the event of Head or Tail are
the equally likely events.
▪ Favorable events (M):
The desired no. of outcomes among the exhaustive events are called
favorable events.
Example: If we need an ace card from the deck of cards. Then,
favorable case for ace cards will be 4.
 Simple and compound events:
▪ The event of getting a single outcome is called
simple event and the event of getting joint
outcomes is called compound event.
▪ Compound event is also called mixed event or
composite event. Compound events can be
spitted into further events.
Example:
Drawing a single number "5" in a single throw
of a die is the simple event. Similarly, drawing
the odd numbers (1 or 3 or 5) are the compound
events.
 Mutually exclusive and inclusive events:
▪ If the occurrence of the event is excluded in the
occurrence of another event in an experiment,
then it is called mutually exclusive events.
▪ Similarly under the mutually inclusive events,
the occurrence of an event is included in the
occurrence of another event.
Example: Occurring 2 or odd numbers in a
single throw of a die are the mutually exclusive
events and occurring 2 or even numbers are the
mutually inclusive events.
 Dependent and Independent events
▪ If the occurrence of one event is affected by the
occurrence of another event then they are called
dependent events. It is the event with reduced sample
space.
▪ Oppositely, if the occurrence of one event is not
affected by the occurrence of another event then they
are called independent events
Example:
Two successive drawn of balls without replacement are
the dependent events and same drawn of balls with
replacement are the independent events.
If P(A) × P(B) = P(A  B),
then events A and B are independent events.
Thank You!
Conditional Probability
▪ The conditional probability of an event occurred at that time when
another event is already accrued.
▪ It means, under the conditional probability the occurrence of one event
is influenced (i.e. affected) by the occurrence of another event.
▪ Conditional probability is the probability of an event with reduced
sample space.
▪ Conditional probability is the probability of dependent events.
▪ It is the ratio between joint probability and the marginal probability.
▪ It is calculated as:

P (A/B) = Probability of occurring event A when event B is already occurred

P(AB)
=
P(B)
P (B/A) = Probability of occurring event B when event A is already occurred
P(AB)
=
P(A)
Some facts about conditional probability

• The conditional probability is valid only when

P (A) and P (B) are greater than zero.
• Under the question of conditional probability,
two statements are always given
• In one statement; base is given with past
tense or present perfect tense. Sometimes,
base statement is expressed with “if clause”
or “when clause” too.
• Similarly in another statement, we are given
asked event with present tense or future
tense.
Bayes Theorem
▪ It is propounded by the British mathematician Thomas Bayes
in 1763.
▪ It is the extended version of conditional probability.
▪ If there are two or more mutually exclusive events to
intersect a common event, then the question is related with
Bayes theorem.
Mutually Exclusive Events Common Events
Example a. Bag 1 and Bag 2 White ball
b. Student A and B Solve the problem
c. Manager X, Y and Z Distribute bonus
d. City A, B and C Smokers
e. Machine X, Y and Z Defective product
f. Party A, B and C Lead the government
 College 1 College 2
If we have TWO mutually exclusive events Fail Students

Exclusive Events Common Events Product (i.e. Multiply)

P(C1) = … P(F/C1) = … P(C1) × P(F/C1) = … (Let ABC)

P(C2) = … P(F/C2) = … P(C2) × P(F/C2) = … (Let XYZ)

Sum = 1 Sum = P(F) = P(Fail Students)

(ABC) + (XYZ) = Let PQR

Now,
ABC
P(C1/F) = Probability of selecting college 1 for fail students =
PQR
XYZ
P(C2/F) = Probability of selecting college 2 for fail students =
PQR
Class Work 13_____ Solution:
In a certain factory, Plant I, II, and
Plant I Plant II Plant III
III manufacture 60%, 25%, and 15%
products respectively. Of the total Sub-standard
of their output 1%, 2%, and 2% are
of sub-standard quality. A product
Let
is drawn at random from the total
production and found to be sub- P1 = Event of production from plant I
standard quality,
P2 = Event of production from plant II
a) What is the probability of
getting a sub-standard product? P3 = Event of production from plant III
b) From which plant the sub- S = Event of producing sub-standard quality
standard product is expected to
be manufactured?
Using Probability Tree approach

Exclusive Events Common Events Product 0.006

P(P1/S) = = 0.428
P(P1) = 0.60 P(S/P1) = 0.01 0.60 × 0.01 = 0.006
0.014

P(S/P2) = 0.02
0.005
P(P2) = 0.25 0.25 × 0.02 = 0.005 P(P2/S) = = 0.357
0.014
P(P3) = 0.15 P(S/P3) = 0.02 0.15 × 0.02 = 0.003
0.003
Sum = 1 Sum = P(S) = 0.014 P(P3/S) = = 0.215
0.014
Req. (a) Prob. of getting sub-standard quality is given by: Decision:
P(S) = 0.014 Referring above calculations,
Req. (b) In order to find, from which plant the sub-standard from plant I, the sub-standard
product is expected to be manufactured, we need product is expected to be
to calculate following probabilities: manufactured as it has a
higher probability of 0.428.
Class Work 15_____
One bag contains 5 white and 4 black balls. Then,
Another bag contains 7 white and 9 black P(E1) = 5/9 P(W/E1) = 8/17
balls. A ball is transferred from the first bag to P(E2) = 4/9 P(W/E2) = 7/17
the second bag and then a ball is drawn from
the second bag. Find the probability that the Using Probability Tree approach
ball is white.
Solution: Exclusive Events Common Events Product
P(E1) = 5/9 P(W/E1) = 8/17 5/9 × 8/17 = 0.261
Bag 1 Bag 2
1 Ball
5 White Transferred 7 White
4 Black 9 Black
Total = 9 Total = 16 P(E2) = 4/9 P(W/E2) = 7/17 4/9 × 7/17 = 0.183
Sum = 1 Sum = P(W) = 0.444
Let, E1 = Event of picking the white ball to
transfer from first bag to second bag. Now,
E2 = Event of picking the black ball to The probability of selecting white ball from second bag
transfer from first bag to second bag. after transfer is given by:
W = Event of selecting white ball from P(W) = 0.444
second bag after transfer.
 MCQs
for Practice
 MCQs
for Practice
Thank You!