9709/61/M/J/19/Q2

1 Jameel has 5 plums and 3 apricots in a box. Rosa has x plums and 6 apricots in a box. One fruit
is chosen at random from Jameel’s box and one fruit is chosen at random from Rosa’s box. The
probability that both fruits chosen are plums is 14 . Write down an equation in x and hence find x. [3]
9709/61/M/J/19/Q3
2 A fair six-sided die is thrown twice and the scores are noted. Event X is defined as ‘The total of the
two scores is 4’. Event Y is defined as ‘The first score is 2 or 5’. Are events X and Y independent?
Justify your answer. [4]
9709/61/M/J/19/Q6
3 At a funfair, Amy pays $1 for two attempts to make a bell ring by shooting at it with a water pistol.
³ If she makes the bell ring on her first attempt, she receives $3 and stops playing. This means
that overall she has gained $2.
³ If she makes the bell ring on her second attempt, she receives $1.50 and stops playing. This
means that overall she has gained $0.50.
³ If she does not make the bell ring in the two attempts, she has lost her original $1.

The probability that Amy makes the bell ring on any attempt is 0.2, independently of other attempts.

(i) Show that the probability that Amy loses her original $1 is 0.64. [2]
(ii) Complete the probability distribution table for the amount that Amy gains. [4]

Amy’s gain ($)

Probability 0.64

(iii) Calculate Amy’s expected gain. [1]

9709/62/M/J/19/Q1
4 Two ordinary fair dice are thrown and the numbers obtained are noted. Event S is ‘The sum of the
numbers is even’. Event T is ‘The sum of the numbers is either less than 6 or a multiple of 4 or both’.
Showing your working, determine whether the events S and T are independent. [4]
9709/62/M/J/19/Q5
5 Maryam has 7 sweets in a tin; 6 are toffees and 1 is a chocolate. She chooses one sweet at random
and takes it out. Her friend adds 3 chocolates to the tin. Then Maryam takes another sweet at random
out of the tin.

(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to illustrate this situation. [3]
(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for the number of toffees taken. [3]
(iii) Find the mean number of toffees taken. [1]
(iv) Find the probability that the first sweet taken is a chocolate, given that the second sweet taken is
a toffee. [4]
9709/63/M/J/19/Q2
6 Megan sends messages to her friends in one of 3 different ways: text, email or social media. For each
message, the probability that she uses text is 0.3 and the probability that she uses email is 0.2. She
receives an immediate reply from a text message with probability 0.4, from an email with probability
0.15 and from social media with probability 0.6.

(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
(ii) Given that Megan does not receive an immediate reply to a message, find the probability that the
message was an email. [4]
9709/61/O/N/19/Q1
7 When Shona goes to college she either catches the bus with probability 0.8 or she cycles with
probability 0.2. If she catches the bus, the probability that she is late is 0.4. If she cycles, the
probability that she is late is x. The probability that Shona is not late for college on a randomly chosen
day is 0.63. Find the value of x. [3]
 9709/62/O/N/19/Q2
8 Benju cycles to work each morning and he has two possible routes. He chooses the hilly route with
probability 0.4 and the busy route with probability 0.6. If he chooses the hilly route, the probability
that he will be late for work is x and if he chooses the busy route the probability that he will be late
for work is 2x. The probability that Benju is late for work on any day is 0.36.

(i) Show that x = 0.225. [2]

(ii) Given that Benju is not late for work, find the probability that he chooses the hilly route. [3]

9709/63/O/N/19/Q1
9 There are 300 students at a music college. All students play exactly one of the guitar, the piano or
the flute. The numbers of male and female students that play each of the instruments are given in the
following table.

Guitar Piano Flute

Female students 62 35 43
Male students 78 40 42

(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student at the college is a male who does not play
the piano. [1]
(ii) Determine whether the events ‘a randomly chosen student is male’ and ‘a randomly chosen
student does not play the piano’ are independent, justifying your answer. [2]

9709/52/F/M/20/Q6
10 Box A contains 7 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box B contains 9 red balls and 5 blue balls. A ball is
chosen at random from box A and placed in box B. A ball is then chosen at random from box B. The
tree diagram below shows the possibilities for the colours of the balls chosen.

(a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities. [3]

Box A Box B

Red

Red

Blue

Red

Blue

Blue
(b) Find the probability that the two balls chosen are not the same colour. [2]
(c) Find the probability that the ball chosen from box A is blue given that the ball chosen from box B
is blue. [4]
 9709/51/M/J/20/Q1
11 The score when two fair six-sided dice are thrown is the sum of the two numbers on the upper faces.
1.
(a) Show that the probability that the score is 4 is 12 [1]

The two dice are thrown repeatedly until a score of 4 is obtained. The number of throws taken is
denoted by the random variable X .

(b) Find the mean of X . [1]

(c) Find the probability that a score of 4 is first obtained on the 6th throw. [1]
(d) Find P X < 8
. [2]
9709/51/M/J/20/Q5
12 On Mondays, Rani cooks her evening meal. She has a pizza, a burger or a curry with probabilities
0.35, 0.44, 0.21 respectively. When she cooks a pizza, Rani has some fruit with probability 0.3.
When she cooks a burger, she has some fruit with probability 0.8. When she cooks a curry, she never
has any fruit.

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
(b) Find the probability that Rani has some fruit. [2]
(c) Find the probability that Rani does not have a burger given that she does not have any fruit. [4]
9709/52/M/J/20/Q2
13 A total of 500 students were asked which one of four colleges they attended and whether they preferred
soccer or hockey. The numbers of students in each category are shown in the following table.

Soccer Hockey Total

Amos 54 32 86
Benn 84 72 156
Canton 22 56 78
Devar 120 60 180
Total 280 220 500

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student is at Canton college and prefers hockey.
[1]
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student is at Devar college given that he prefers
soccer. [2]
(c) One of the students is chosen at random. Determine whether the events ‘the student prefers
hockey’ and ‘the student is at Amos college or Benn college’ are independent, justifying your
answer. [2]
9709/53/M/J/20/Q1
14 Juan goes to college each day by any one of car or bus or walking. The probability that he goes by
car is 0.2, the probability that he goes by bus is 0.45 and the probability that he walks is 0.35. When
Juan goes by car, the probability that he arrives early is 0.6. When he goes by bus, the probability
that he arrives early is 0.1. When he walks he always arrives early.

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
(b) Find the probability that Juan goes to college by car given that he arrives early. [4]
9709/62/F/M/19/Q1
15 On each day that Tamar goes to work, he wears either a blue suit with probability 0.6 or a grey suit
with probability 0.4. If he wears a blue suit then the probability that he wears red socks is 0.2. If he
wears a grey suit then the probability that he wears red socks is 0.32.

(i) Find the probability that Tamar wears red socks on any particular day that he is at work. [2]
(ii) Given that Tamar is not wearing red socks at work, find the probability that he is wearing a grey
suit. [3]
 9709/51/O/N/20/Q1
16 Two ordinary fair dice, one red and the other blue, are thrown.
Event A is ‘the score on the red die is divisible by 3’.
Event B is ‘the sum of the two scores is at least 9’.

(a) Find P A › B
. [2]

(b) Hence determine whether or not the events A and B are independent. [2]

9709/51/O/N/20/Q2
17 The probability that a student at a large music college plays in the band is 0.6. For a student who plays
in the band, the probability that she also sings in the choir is 0.3. For a student who does not play
in the band, the probability that she sings in the choir is x. The probability that a randomly chosen
student from the college does not sing in the choir is 0.58.

(a) Find the value of x. [3]

Two students from the college are chosen at random.

(b) Find the probability that both students play in the band and both sing in the choir. [2]
9709/52/O/N/20/Q4
18 In a certain country, the weather each day is classified as fine or rainy. The probability that a fine day
is followed by a fine day is 0.75 and the probability that a rainy day is followed by a fine day is 0.4.
The probability that it is fine on 1 April is 0.8. The tree diagram below shows the possibilities for the
weather on 1 April and 2 April.

(a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities. [1]

1 April 2 April

Fine

Fine

Rainy

Fine

Rainy

Rainy

(b) Find the probability that 2 April is fine. [2]

Let X be the event that 1 April is fine and Y be the event that 3 April is rainy.

(c) Find the value of P X › Y
. [3]

(d) Find the probability that 1 April is fine given that 3 April is rainy. [3]
9709/52/F/M/21/Q2
19 Georgie has a red scarf, a blue scarf and a yellow scarf. Each day she wears exactly one of these
scarves. The probabilities for the three colours are 0.2, 0.45 and 0.35 respectively. When she wears a
red scarf, she always wears a hat. When she wears a blue scarf, she wears a hat with probability 0.4.
When she wears a yellow scarf, she wears a hat with probability 0.3.

(a) Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day Georgie wears a hat. [2]
(b) Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day Georgie wears a yellow scarf given that she
does not wear a hat. [3]

9709/51/M/J/21/Q4
20 To gain a place at a science college, students first have to pass a written test and then a practical test.

Each student is allowed a maximum of two attempts at the written test. A student is only allowed
a second attempt if they fail the first attempt. No student is allowed more than one attempt at the
practical test. If a student fails both attempts at the written test, then they cannot attempt the practical
test.

The probability that a student will pass the written test at the first attempt is 0.8. If a student fails the
first attempt at the written test, the probability that they will pass at the second attempt is 0.6. The
probability that a student will pass the practical test is always 0.3.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information, showing the probabilities on the branches.
[3]
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student will succeed in gaining a place at the college.
[2]
(c) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student passes the written test at the first attempt
given that the student succeeds in gaining a place at the college. [2]

9709/52/M/J/21/Q3
21 On each day that Alexa goes to work, the probabilities that she travels by bus, by train or by car are
0.4, 0.35 and 0.25 respectively. When she travels by bus, the probability that she arrives late is 0.55.
When she travels by train, the probability that she arrives late is 0.7. When she travels by car, the
probability that she arrives late is x.

On a randomly chosen day when Alexa goes to work, the probability that she does not arrive late
is 0.48.

(a) Find the value of x. [3]

(b) Find the probability that Alexa travels to work by train given that she arrives late. [3]

9709/51/O/N/21/Q3
22 For her bedtime drink, Suki has either chocolate, tea or milk with probabilities 0.45, 0.35 and 0.2
respectively. When she has chocolate, the probability that she has a biscuit is 0.3. When she has tea,
the probability that she has a biscuit is 0.6. When she has milk, she never has a biscuit.

Find the probability that Suki has tea given that she does not have a biscuit. [5]
9709/52/O/N/21/Q1
23 Each of the 180 students at a college plays exactly one of the piano, the guitar and the drums. The
numbers of male and female students who play the piano, the guitar and the drums are given in the
following table.

Piano Guitar Drums

Male 25 44 11
Female 42 38 20

A student at the college is chosen at random.

(a) Find the probability that the student plays the guitar. [1]
(b) Find the probability that the student is male given that the student plays the drums. [2]
(c) Determine whether the events ‘the student plays the guitar’ and ‘the student is female’ are
independent, justifying your answer. [2]

9709/53/O/N/21/Q7
24 Box A contains 6 red balls and 4 blue balls. Box B contains x red balls and 9 blue balls. A ball is
chosen at random from box A and placed in box B. A ball is then chosen at random from box B.

(a) Complete the tree diagram below, giving the remaining four probabilities in terms of x. [3]

Box A Box B

Red

Red
6
10
Blue

Red
4
10
Blue

Blue

4
(b) Show that the probability that both balls chosen are blue is . [2]
x + 10
It is given that the probability that both balls chosen are blue is 16 .

(c) Find the probability, correct to 3 significant figures, that the ball chosen from box A is red given
that the ball chosen from box B is red. [5]
9709/51/M/J/22/Q6
25 Janice is playing a computer game. She has to complete level 1 and level 2 to finish the game. She is
allowed at most two attempts at any level.
• For level 1, the probability that Janice completes it at the first attempt is 0.6. If she fails at her first
attempt, the probability that she completes it at the second attempt is 0.3.
• If Janice completes level 1, she immediately moves on to level 2.
• For level 2, the probability that Janice completes it at the first attempt is 0.4. If she fails at her first
attempt, the probability that she completes it at the second attempt is 0.2.

(a) Show that the probability that Janice moves on to level 2 is 0.72. [1]
(b) Find the probability that Janice finishes the game. [3]
(c) Find the probability that Janice fails exactly one attempt, given that she finishes the game. [4]
9709/52/M/J/22/Q7
26 Hanna buys 12 hollow chocolate eggs that each contain a sweet. The eggs look identical but Hanna
knows that 3 contain a red sweet, 4 contain an orange sweet and 5 contain a yellow sweet. Each
of Hanna’s three children in turn randomly chooses and eats one of the eggs, keeping the sweet it
contained.

(a) Find the probability that all 3 eggs chosen contain the same colour sweet. [4]
(b) Find the probability that all 3 eggs chosen contain a yellow sweet, given that all three children
have the same colour sweet. [2]
(c) Find the probability that at least one of Hanna’s three children chooses an egg that contains an
orange sweet. [3]
9709/52/F/M/22/Q6
27 A factory produces chocolates in three flavours: lemon, orange and strawberry in the ratio 3 : 5 : 7
respectively. Nell checks the chocolates on the production line by choosing chocolates randomly one
at a time.
(a) Find the probability that the first chocolate with lemon flavour that Nell chooses is the 7th chocolate
that she checks. [1]
[1] chooses is after she has
(b) Find the probability that the first chocolate with lemon flavour that Nell
checked at least 6 chocolates. [2]
‘Surprise’ boxes of chocolates each contain 15 chocolates: 3 are lemon, 5 are orange and 7 are
strawberry.

Petra has a box of Surprise chocolates. She chooses 3 chocolates at random from the box. She eats
each chocolate before choosing the next one.
(c) Find the probability that none of Petra’s 3 chocolates has orange flavour. [2]
(d) Find the probability that each of Petra’s 3 chocolates has a different flavour. [3]
(e) Find the probability that at least 2 of Petra’s 3 chocolates have strawberry flavour given that none
of them has orange flavour. [4]

9709/53/M/J/22/Q6
28 Sajid is practising for a long jump competition. He counts any jump that is longer than 6 m as a success.
On any day, the probability that he has a success with his first jump is 0.2. For any subsequent jump,
the probability of a success is 0.3 if the previous jump was a success and 0.1 otherwise. Sajid makes
three jumps.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate this information, showing all the probabilities. [2]
(b) Find the probability that Sajid has exactly one success given that he has at least one success. [5]
On another day, Sajid makes six jumps.

(c) Find the probability that only his first three jumps are successes or only his last three jumps are
successes. [3]
9709/51/O/N/22/Q5
29 A game is played with an ordinary fair 6-sided die. A player throws the die once. If the result is
2, 3, 4 or 5, that result is the player’s score and the player does not throw the die again. If the result
is 1 or 6, the player throws the die a second time and the player’s score is the sum of the two numbers
from the two throws.

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
Events A and B are defined as follows.
A: the player’s score is 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9
B: the player has two throws

(b) Show that P A
= 13 . [3]

(c) Determine whether or not events A and B are independent. [2]

(d) Find P B | A′
. [3]

9709/52/O/N/22/Q1
30 On any day, Kino travels to school by bus, by car or on foot with probabilities 0.2, 0.1 and 0.7
respectively. The probability that he is late when he travels by bus is x. The probability that he is late
when he travels by car is 2x and the probability that he is late when he travels on foot is 0.25.

The probability that, on a randomly chosen day, Kino is late is 0.235.

(a) Find the value of x. [3]

(b) Find the probability that, on a randomly chosen day, Kino travels to school by car given that he
is not late. [2]

9709/52/O/N/22/Q5
31 Eric has three coins. One of the coins is fair. The other two coins are each biased so that the probability
of obtaining a head on any throw is 14 , independently of all other throws. Eric throws all three coins
at the same time.

Events A and B are defined as follows.

A: all three coins show the same result
B: at least one of the biased coins shows a head

7.
(a) Show that P B
= 16 [2]
(b) Find P A | B
. [2]
The random variable X is the number of heads obtained when Eric throws the three coins.

(c) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

9709/53/O/N/22/Q7
32 Sam and Tom are playing a game which involves a bag containing 5 white discs and 3 red discs. They
take turns to remove one disc from the bag at random. Discs that are removed are not replaced into
the bag. The game ends as soon as one player has removed two red discs from the bag. That player
wins the game.

Sam removes the first disc.

(a) Find the probability that Tom removes a red disc on his first turn. [2]
 (b) Find the probability that Tom wins the game on his second turn. [4]
(c) Find the probability that Sam removes a red disc on his first turn given that Tom wins the game
on his second turn. [2]

9709/52/F/M/23/Q4
33 The probability that it will rain on any given day is x. If it is raining, the probability that Aran wears
a hat is 0.8 and if it is not raining, the probability that he wears a hat is 0.3. Whether it is raining or
not, if Aran wears a hat, the probability that he wears a scarf is 0.4. If he does not wear a hat, the
probability that he wears a scarf is 0.1. The probability that on a randomly chosen day it is not raining
and Aran is not wearing a hat or a scarf is 0.36.

Find the value of x. [3]

9709/52/F/M/23/Q5
34 Marco has four boxes labelled K , L, M and N . He places them in a straight line in the order K , L, M ,
N with K on the left. Marco also has four coloured marbles: one is red, one is green, one is white
and one is yellow. He places a single marble in each box, at random. Events A and B are defined as
follows.
A: The white marble is in either box L or box M .
B: The red marble is to the left of both the green marble and the yellow marble.

Determine whether or not events A and B are independent. [3]

9709/53/M/J/23/Q5
35 Jasmine throws two ordinary fair 6-sided dice at the same time and notes the numbers on the uppermost
faces. The events A and B are defined as follows.
A: The sum of the two numbers is less than 6.
B: The difference between the two numbers is at most 2.

(a) Determine whether or not the events A and B are independent. [4]
(b) Find P B | A′
. [3]
9709/53/O/N/23/Q3
36 Tim has two bags of marbles, A and B.

Bag A contains 8 white, 4 red and 3 yellow marbles.

Bag B contains 6 white, 7 red and 2 yellow marbles.

Tim also has an ordinary fair 6-sided dice. He rolls the dice. If he obtains a 1 or 2, he chooses two
marbles at random from bag A, without replacement. If he obtains a 3, 4, 5 or 6, he chooses two
marbles at random from bag B, without replacement.

(a) Find the probability that both marbles are white. [3]
9709/52/O/N/23/Q6
37 Freddie has two bags of marbles.

Bag X contains 7 red marbles and 3 blue marbles.

Bag Y contains 4 red marbles and 1 blue marble.

Freddie chooses one of the bags at random. A marble is removed at random from that bag and not
replaced. A new red marble is now added to each bag. A second marble is then removed at random
from the same bag that the first marble had been removed from.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information, showing the probability on each of the
branches. [3]
(b) Find the probability that both of the marbles removed from the bag are the same colour. [4]
(c) Find the probability that bag Y is chosen given that the marbles removed are not both the same
colour. [2]
1 5 x M1 Their 2 probabilities for P(plum) multiplied and equated to 1/4
Jameel: P(plum) = , Rosa: P(plum) =
8 x+6
A1 Correct equation oe
5 x 1
× =
8 x+6 4

(x =) 4 A1 SC correct answer with no appropriate equations i.e. common sense

B1

3
 2 3  1  B1
P(X) =  oe 
36  12 

12  1  B1
P(Y) =  oe 
36  3 

1 M1 Independent method to find P(X∩Y) without multiplication, either

P(X∩Y) = stated or by listing or circling numbers on a probability space
36
diagram. OR condititional prob with a single fraction numerator

P(X) × P(Y) = P(X∩Y), independent A1 Numerical comparison and conclusion, www

3 P(loses $1) = P( F and F) = 0.8 × 0.8 M1 0.8 x 0.8 or (1 – 0.2)(1-0.2) or P(F) × P(F) or P(F)+P(F) seen or
implied

= 0.64 AG A1 Must see probabilities multiplied together with final answer and a
clear probability statement or implied by labelled tree diagram

(ii) B1 –1 linked with 0.64 in table

Amount
–1 0.50 2
gained ($) B1 0.5 seen in table
Prob 0.16 0.2 B1 0.16 seen in table linked to their 0.5

B1 FT P(2.00 gained) = 0.36 – P(0.50 gained) or correct, and all

amount gained linked correctly in table

(iii) E(winnings) = –1 × 0.64 + 0.5 × 0.16 + 2 × 0.2 B1 FT Accept ($)0.16 or 16 cents loss. FT unsimplified E(winnings)
= –($)0.16, –16 cents from their table provided Σp = 1

1
4 1 B1
P(S) =
2

16  4  B1
P(T) =  
36  9 

10  5  M1 P(S ∩ T) found by multiplication scores M0

P(S ∩ T) =   M1 awarded if their value is identifiable in their sample space diagram or
36  18 
Venn diagram or list of terms or probability distribution table (oe)

P(S) P(T) ≠ P(S ∩ T) so not independent A1 8/36, 10/36 P(S) × P(T) and P(S ∩ T) seen in workings and correct
conclusion stated, www

Alternative method for question 1

1 B1
P(S) =
2

16  4  B1
P(T) =  
36  9 

10  5  M1 P(S ∩ T) found by multiplication scores M0

P(S ∩ T) =   M1 awarded if their value is identifiable in their sample space diagram or
36  18 
Venn diagram or list of terms or probability distribution table (oe)

10 10 A1 Either 18/36, 10/16,P(S) and P(S |T) seen in workings and correct
P(S | T) = or P(T | S) = conclusion stated, www
16 18
Or 16/36, 10/18, P(T) and P(T | S) seen in workings and correct
P(S | T) ≠ P(S) or P(T | S) ≠ P(T) so not independent conclusion stated, www

4
5 T B1 First pair of branches labels and probs correct (6/7 and 1/7 or rounding to
5/9 0.857 and 0.143)

T (Labelling must be logically…e.g. (T and T) or (T and Not T) would be

acceptable)
6/7 4/9
C B1 Either of second top pair or bottom of branches labels and probs correct

T
1/7 6/9
C

3/9 B1 Both second pairs of branches labels and probs correct. No additional /
C further branches.

(ii) B1 P(1) correct

No of toffees
0 2
taken (T) B1 P(0) or P(2) correct
3 30 30 B1 FT Correct values in table, any additional values of T have stated
, , ,
prob 63 63 63 probability of zero. For FT Σp = 1,
0.0476(2) 0.476(2) 0.476(2)

(iii) 90 10 B1 Not FT
E(X) = ( ) (1.43)
63 7

(iv) 1 6 6 B1 P(C ∩ T) attempt seen as numerator of a fraction, consistent with their tree
P(C ∩ T ) × diagram or correct
P(1st C | 2nd T) = = 7 9 = 63
P(T ) 1 6 6 5 36
× + × M1 Summing 2 appropriate two-factor probabilities, consistent with their tree
7 9 7 9 63
diagram or correct seen anywhere

A1 36
oe or correct unsimplifed expression seen as numerator or
63
denominator of a fraction

1 A1 Final answer
oe
6
6 B1 Fully correct labelled tree with correct probabilities for ‘Send’

B1 Fully correct labelled branches with correct probabilities for the

‘reply’

(ii) P ( email ∩ NR ) 0.2 × 0.85 M1 P(email) × P(NR) seen as numerator of a fraction, consistent with
P (email NR) = = their tree diagram
P ( NR ) 0.3 × 0.6 + 0.2 × 0.85 + 0.5 × 0.4

0.17 0.17 M1 Summing three appropriate 2-factor probabilities, consistent with

= = their tree diagram, seen anywhere
0.18 + 0.17 + 0.2 0.55
0.55 oe (can be unsimplified) seen as denom of a fraction

17 A1
= 0.309,
55

A1 Correct answer

4
 7 0.8 × 0.6 + 0.2 (1− x ) = 0.63 M1 Equation of form 0.8 × A + 0.2 × B = C, A,B involving 1 – x and
0.6 or 0.4 and C = 0.63 or 0.37

0.2x = 0.05 M1 Correct unsimplified equation

x = 0.25 A1

Alternative method for question 1

0.8 × 0.4 + 0.2x = 1 − 0.63 M1 Equation of form 0.8 × A + 0.2 × B = C, A,B involving x and 0.6
or 0.4 and C = 0.63 or 0.37

0.2x = 0.05 M1 Correct unsimplified equation

x = 0.25 A1

8(i) 0.4x + 0.6 × 2x = 0.36 or 0.4(1 − x) + 0.6(1 − 2x) = 0.64 M1 0.4a + (1 – 0.4)b = 0.36 or 0.64, a,b terms involving x

1.6x = 0.36 A1 Fully justified by algebra

x = 0.225 AG

(ii) P( H L') = M1 Correct numerical numerator of a fraction. Allow unsimplified.

0.4 (1− x ) 0.4 × (1− 0.225 ) 0.4 × 0.775
= =
1 − 0.36 0.64 0.4 × 0.775 + 0.6 × 0.55

M1 Denominator 0.36 or 0.64. Allow unsimplified.

31 A1
or 0.484
64

3
9(i) 120 B1 OE
= 0.4
300

(ii) 160 225  8 3  2 M1 P(M) × P(P ' ) seen

P(male) × P(not piano) = ×  × = Can be unsimplified but the events must be named in a
300 300  15 4  5
product

120 2 A1 Numerical comparison and correct conclusion

As P(male ∩ not piano) also = =
300 5

The events are Independent

Alternative method for question 1(ii)

120 225 M1 P(M|P ' ) or P(P ' |M) unsimplified seen with their probs with
P(male ∩ not piano) = ; P(not piano) = correctly named events
300 300

120 A1 Numerical comparison with P(M) or P(P ' ) and correct

120 8 conclusion
P(M | not piano) = 300 = = = P(male)
225 225 15
300
or
120
120 3
P(not piano | M) = 300 = = = P(not piano)
160 160 4
300

Therefore the events are Independent

2
10(a) Box A Box B B1 Both correct probs, box A

Red B1 2 probs correct for box B

d
B1 All correct probs for box B

Red

Blue
Red

Blue

Blue

(b) 7 5 1 9 M1 Two 2 factor terms added, correct or FT their 6(a).

× + ×
8 15 8 15

44  11  A1 OE
= or 0.367 
120  30 

(c) P ( A blue ∩ B blue ) M1 1 6

P(A blue |B blue) = their × seen as numerator or denom of fraction
P ( B blue ) 8 15
1 6 1
×
= 8 15 = 20
7 5 1 6 41
× + ×
8 15 8 15 120

M1 7 5 1 6
their × + × seen
8 15 8 15

M1 7 5 1 6
their × + × seen as denominator
8 15 8 15

6 A1
= or 0.146
41
11(a) 3 1 B1
Prob of 4 (from 1,3, 3,1 or 2,2) = = AG
36 12

(b) 1 B1
Mean = = 12
1
12

(c) 5
 11  1 161051 B1
  × = 0.0539 or
 12  12 2985984

(d)  11 
7 M1
1−  
 12 

16344637 A1
0.456 or
35831808

2
12(a)

Fully correct labelled tree for method of transport with correct probabilities. B1

Fully correct labelled branches with correct probabilities for lateness with either 1 branch after W or 2 branches with the prob 0 B1

(b) 0.35 × 0.3 + 0.44 × 0.8 (+ 0) M1

0.457 A1

(c) P ( B'∩ F') M1

P(not B|not fruit) =
P ( F')

0.35 × 0.7 + 0.21 × 1 M1

1− their ( b )

0.455 M1
0.543
(M1 for 1 – their (b) or summing three appropriate 2-factor probabilities, correct or consistent with their tree diagram as
denominator)

455 A1
0.838 or
543
13(a) 56 14 B1
or or 0.112
500 125

(b) P ( D ∩ S) 120 M1
P ( D | S) = =
P ( S) 280

120 3 A1
or
280 7

(c) 220 M1
P(hockey) = = 0.44
500
242
P(Amos or Benn) = = 0.484
500
104
P(hockey ∩ A or B) = = 0.208
500
P(H) × P(A U B) = P(H ∩ (A U B)) if independent

220 242 1331 A1

× = so not independent
500 500 6250

2
14(a)

Fully correct labelled tree for method of transport with correct probabilities. B1

Fully correct labelled branches with correct probabilities for lateness with either 1 branch after W or 2 branches with the B1
probability 0.

(b) P (C ∩ E) 0.2 × 0.6 M1

P(C|E) = =
P(E) 0.2 × 0.6 + 0.45× 0.1 + 0.35 × 1

Summing three appropriate 2-factor probabilities M1

0.12 A1
0.515

12 A1
0.233 or
515

4
15(i) 0.6 × 0.2 + 0.4 × 0.32 M1 Addition of 2 two-factor terms 0.6 × a + 0.4 × b

31 A1 CAO
= 0.248,
125

(ii) Method 1

0.4 × 0.68 B1 Correct [unsimplified] numerator seen in fraction

P(GS|Not Red socks) =
1 − (i)

M1 1 – their (i) as denominator in fraction

17 A1
= 0.362,
47

Method 2

0.4 × 0.68 B1 Correct [unsimplified] numerator seen in fraction

P(GS|Not Red socks) =
0.6 × 0.8 + 0.4 × 0.68

M1 Correct or (their (i))’ as denominator in fraction

17 A1
= 0.362,
47

3
16(a) M1 Complete outcome space or
Red
or listing A and B outcomes
or listing A∩B outcomes
1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Blue

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6 7 8 9 1 11 12

5 A1 With evidence
P(A∩B) =
36

(b) 1 10 M1 1 10
P(A) × P(B) = × Their × their seen
3 36 3 36

5 5 A1 5 5
≠ so not independent , , P(A) × P(B) and P(A∩B) seen in workings and correct
54 36 54 36
conclusion stated
5
Condone being stated in (a)
36

Alternative method for question 1(b)

P(B|A) = P(B) M1 their 1( a )

5 OE, seen
their P ( A )
P ( A ∩ B ) 36
P(B|A) = =
P (A) 1
3

5 5 A1 5 5
≠ so not independent P(A|B), P(B), , seen in workings and correct conclusion
12 18 12 18
stated
5 10
Condone ≡ being identified in (a)
18 36
17(a) 0·6 × 0·7 + 0·4(1 – x) = 0·58 M1 Equation of form 0·6 × a + 0·4 × b = 0·58;
≡ 0·42 + 0·4(1 – x) = 0·58 a = 0·3, 0·7, b = x, (1 – x)

B1 Single correct product seen, condone 0·42, in an equation of

appropriate form

x = 0·6 A1

Alternative method for question 2(a)

0·6 × 0·3 + 0·4x = 0·42 M1 Equation of form 0·6 x a + 0·4 x b = 0·42;

≡ 0·18 + 0·4x = 0·42 a = 0·3, 0·7, b = x, (1 – x)

B1 Single correct product seen, condone 0·18, in an equation of

appropriate form

x = 0·6 A1

(b) ( 0.6× 0.3)2 M1 (a × b)2, a = 0·6, 0·4 and b = 0·7, 0·3, x, (1–x)
or 0·182, alone.

0.0324 A1

2
18(a) B1 All probabilities correct, may be on branch or next to
‘Fine/Rainy’
Ignore additional branches.
Fine
0.75
0.8 Fine

0.25
Rainy

0.4 Fine
0.2 Rainy

0.6 Rainy

(b) 0·8 × 0·75 + 0·2 × 0·4 (= 0·6 + 0·08) M1 Correct or FT from their diagram unsimplified, all probabilities
0 < p < 1.
Partial evaluation only sufficient when correct.
Accept working in 4(b) or by the tree diagram.

17 A1 From supporting working

0.68,
25

2
(c) 0·8 × 0·75 × 0·25 + 0·8 × 0·25 × 0·6 M1 a × b × c + a × 1-b × d, 0 < c, d ⩽ 1,
a, b consistent with their tree diagram or correct, no additional
terms

0·15 + 0·12 A1 At least one term correct, accept unsimplified

0.27 A1 Final answer

(d) P(Y) = their (c) + 0·2 × 0·4 × 0·25 + 0·2 × 0·6 × 0·6 B1 FT their (c) + e × f × g + e × (1-f) × h, 0 < g, h ⩽ 1, e, f consistent
(= 0·362) with their tree diagram, or correct

their ( c ) 0.27 M1 their 4(c) (or correct)/their previously calculated and identified
P(X|Y) = = P(Y) or a denominator involving 3 or 4 3-factor probability
their P ( Y ) 0.362
terms consistent with their tree diagram & third factor 0 < p < 1

373 135 A1 (0.7458…)

0·746, or
500 181

19(a) 0.2 ×1 + 0.45× 0.4 + 0.35× 0.3 M1 0∙2 [× 1] + 0∙45 × b + 0∙35 × c, b = 0∙4, 0∙6 c = 0∙3, 0∙7

97 A1
0∙485 or
200

(b)
(
P Y ∩H )= 0.35 × 0.7 0.245
B1 0∙35 × 0∙7 or 0∙245 seen as numerator or denominator of
(
P Y |H = ) = fraction.
P H ( ) 1 − their(a) 0.515
M1 0∙515 or 1 – their (a) or
[0∙3 × 0 +] 0∙45 × d + 0∙35 × e, where d = their b′, e = their
c′ seen as denominator of fraction.

49 A1 0∙4757 ⩽ p ⩽ 0∙476
0∙476 or
103

3
20(a) B1 Fully correct labelled tree diagram for each pair of
branches clearly identifying written and practical, pass
and fail for each intersection (no additional branches)

B1 ‘One written test’ branch all probabilities (or %) correct

B1 ‘Two written tests’ branch all probabilities (or %)

correct, condone additional branches after W2F with
probabilities 1 for PF and 0 for PP

(b) [P(W1P) × P(PP) + P(W1F) × P(W2P) × P(PP)] M1 Consisten with their tree diagram or correct
0.8 × 0.3 + 0.2 × 0.6 × 0.3

69 A1
0.276 or
250

(c) P (W 1∩ Practical ) 0.8× 0.3  0.24  M1 Correct expression or FT their (b)

P (W 1 P ) = = =
P ( getting place ) their ( b )  0.276 

20 A1
or 0.87[0]
23

2
21(a) P(not late) = 0.4 × 0.45 + 0.35 × 0.3 + 0.25 × (1 – x) M1 0.4 × p + 0.35× q + 0.25 × r ,
or p = 0.45, 0.55, q = 0.3, 0.7 and r = (1 – x), x
P(late) = 0.4 × 0.55 + 0.35 × 0.7 + 0.25x

0.18 + 0.105 + 0.25 (1 – x) = 0.48 A1 Linear equation formed using sum of 3 probabilities and 0.48 or
or 0.52 as appropriate.
0.22 + 0.245 + 0.25x = 0.52 Accept unsimplified.

x = 0.22 A1 Final answer

(b)  P ( train ∩ late )  B1 0.35 × 0.7 or 0.245 seen as numerator of fraction

 P ( train late ) = 
 P ( late )  M1 P(late) seen as a denominator with their probability as numerator
0.35 × 0.7 0.35× 0.7 their p their p
= or (Accept or )
1 − 0.48 0.4 × 0.55 + 0.35 × 0.7 + 0.25 × their 0.22 0.52 0.22 + 0.245 + 0.25× their 0.22

49 A1
= 0.471 or
104

22  P (T ∩ B′ )  M1 0.45× a + 0.35 × b + 0.2 [×1] , a = 0.7,0.3 b = 0.4,0.6 , seen

 P ( T |B ′ ) = 
 P ( B ′ )  anywhere.
P ( B′ ) = 0.45 × 0.7 + 0.35× 0.4 + 0.2 × 1 A1 Correct, accept unsimplified.
 131 
 = 0.655, 200 
 

7 M1 Seen as numerator or denominator of a fraction.

P (T ∩ B ') = 0.35 × 0.4 [= 0.14, ]
50

their 0.14 M1 Values substituted into conditional probability formula

P (T | B ') = correctly. Accept unsimplified.
their 0.655
Denominator sum of 3 two-factor probabilities (condone
omission of 1 from final factor).
If clearly identified, condone from incomplete
denominator.

28 A1 If 0 marks awarded, SC B1 0.214 WWW.

0.214,
131

5
23(a) 82 41 B1
, , 0.456
180 90

(b) 11 M1 P ( M ∩ D)
 P(M ∩ D) 0.6011 Their identified
 P ( M|D ) =
180
 = 20 11 or P ( D)
 P ( D )  + 0.1722
11
180 180 or from data table , accept unsimplified, condone × 180.
20 + 11

11 A1 Fina answer.
, 0.355
31

(c) 100 5 82 41 M1 Their identified P(F) × their identified P(G) or correct seen, can be
P(F) = , , 0.5556 OE P(G) = , 0.4556 OE
180 9 180 90 unsimplified.
38 19
P(F∩G) = , , 0.2111 OE A1 41 38
180 90 , , P ( F ∩ G ) and P ( F ) × P ( G ) seen with correct
162 180
100 82 41  38 
P ( F) × P ( G ) = × = , 0.2531 OE  ≠  conclusion, WWW. Values and labels must be seen.
180 180 162  180 
Not independent

Alternative method for question 1(c)

38 19 82 41 M1 P(F|G) (OE) unsimplified with their identified probs or correct

P(F∩G) = , ,0.2111 OE P(G) = , , 0.4556 OE
180 90 180 90
A1 19 100
38 , , P ( F ∩ G ) and P ( F|G ) seen with correct conclusion WWW.
19 41 180
P ( F|G ) = 180 = , 0.4634 OE Values and labels must be seen.
82 41
180
100 5
≠ P ( F) = , ,0.5556 OE
180 9
Not independent

2
24(a) x +1 9 x 10 B1 One probability correct in correct position.
Probabilities: , , ,
x + 10 x +10 x + 10 x +10

B1 Another probability correct in correct position.

B1 Other two probabilities correct in correct positions.

(b) 4 10 M1 Method consistent with their tree diagram.

× their
10 x +10

4 A1 AG
x +10

2
(c) 4 1 B1 Find value of x. Can be implied by correct probabilities in
= calculation.
x +10 6
x + 10 = 24, x =14

P(ARed|BRed) = P(ARed ∩ BRed) ÷ P(BRed) B1 FT 6 x +1

× their as numerator or denominator of
10 x +10
6 x +1 6 15 3 fraction.
× their ×
10 x + 10 = 10 24 = 8
6 x +1 4 x 6 15 4 14 73 M1 6 x +1 4 x
× their + × their × + × × their + × their seen anywhere.
10 x +10 10 x + 10 10 24 10 24 120 10 x +10 10 x + 10

A1 FT Seen as denominator of fraction.

45 A1 If B0 M0:
, 0.616[4…]
73 3
0.375 45
SC B1 for 8 or SC B1 or 0.616.
73 0.6083 73
120

5
25(a) 0.6  0.4  0.3  0.72 or 1 – 0.4 x 0.7 = 0.72 B1 Clear identified calculation AG

(b) 0.72   0.4  0.6  0.2  M1 0.72  u, 0 < u < 1

M1 v  (0.4 + 0.6  0.2), or

v  (1 – 0.6  0.8) 0 < v ⩽ 1 no additional terms
SC B1 for 0.72  (0.4 + 0.12) or 0.72  (1 – 0.48)

0.3744 A1 WWW. Condone 0.374. SC B1 for 0.3744 only

Alternative method for question 6(b)

[p(P1P2) + p(F1P1P2) + p(P1F2P2) + p(F1P1F2P2)] = M1 Any two terms unsimplified and correct
0.6  0.4 + 0.4  0.3  0.4 + 0.6  0.6  0.2 + 0.4  0.3  0.6  0.2
M1 Summing 4 appropriate scenarios by listing or on a
tree diagram
SC B1 for 0.24 + 0.048 + 0.072 + 0.0144

0.3744 A1 WWW. Condone 0.374. SC B1 for 0.3744 only

(c) P (fails first or second level  finishes game) M1 Either 0.6  0.6  0.2 or 0.4  0.3  0.4 seen
P (fails first or second level | finishes game) 
their (b) Condone 0.072 or 0.048 if seen in (b)

A1 Both correct accept unsimplified expression.

Numerator = P(S SF) + P(FS S) = 0.6  0.6  0.2 + 0.4  0.3  0.4 = 0.072 + 0.048 = 0.12 No additional terms
0.12 M1 Their sum of two 3-term probabilities as numerator
Required probability =
their(b) their (b) or correct

25 A1 0.3205 < p ⩽ 0.321

0.321 or
78

4
26(a) 5 4 3 60 1 M1 Either 12  11  10 in denominator
YYY:    ,
12 11 10 1320 22 or a  (a –1)  ( a – 2), a = 5, 4, 3 in numerator seen in at least
one expression.
4 3 2 24 1
OOO:    , A1 a a 1 a  2
12 11 10 1320 55 One expression   , a = 5, 4, 3 (consistent in
12 11 10
3 2 1 6 1 expression).
RRR:    , Correct order of values in the numerator is essential.
12 11 10 1320 220
M1 5 4 3 4 3 2 3 2 1
        , either d = 11, e = 10 or
12 d e 12 d e 12 d e
d = 12, e = 12.
1 1 1
Condone   OE
22 55 220

90 3 A1 0.06818. Dependent only upon the second M mark.

[Total =] , , 0.0682
1320 44

(a) Alternative method for question 7(a)

5
C3 10 1 M1 Either 12 C3 in denominator or a C3 in numerator seen in at least
YYY: 12
 ,
C3 220 22 one expression.
4
C3 4 1
OOO: 12
 , A1 a
C3
C3 220 55 One expression 12
a = 5, 4, 3
3
C3
C3 1
RRR: 12

C3 220 M1 5
C3 4
C3 3
C3
12
 12
 12
C3 C3 C3
1 1 1
Condone   OE
22 55 220

90 3 A1 0.06818. Dependent only upon the second M mark.

[Total =] , , 0.0682
1320 44

4
(b) 60 90 M1 60 1
[P(YYY | all same colour) =]  their P  YYY  or or
1320 1320 1320 22
90 3
their 7  a  or or
1320 44

2 A1 OE
, 0.667
3

(c) In each method, the M mark requires the scenarios to be identifiable. This may be implied by a list of scenarios and then the calculations which will
be assumed to be in the same order.
A correct value/expression will be condoned as identifying the connected scenario.

Method 1

8 7 6 8
C 14 B1 8 7 6 8
C3 336 56
[1 – no orange = ]1−   or 1  12 3 = 1   or 12
seen, condone or only, not
12 11 10 C3 55 12 11 10 C3 1320 220
OE.

M1 f g h
1  
12 d e
Either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12
8
C
or 1 - 12 3 .
C3
14 41
Condone 1 OE (not ).
55 55

41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545
55 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
(c) Method 2

 4 3 2 4 5 4  B1 P(1 O)or P(2 O) correct, accept unsimplified.

 12  11  10  12  11  10   672
P(1 O)=  3  M1 3 correct scenarios added, with at least one 3-term product of
 4 5 3  1320
 2    f g h
 12 11 10  form   seen, either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12.
12 d e
4 3 8 288
P(2O) =   3 
12 11 10 1320
24
P(3O) =
1320

984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

[Total =]  , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55

Method 3

O Y R = 4 C1  5 C1  3 C1 = 60 B1 Number of ways either 1 or 2 orange sweets obtained correctly

(112 or 48). Accept unsimplified
O R R = 4 C1  3 C 2 = 12 Note 4C1  8C2 = 112 or 4C2  8C1 = 48 are correct alternatives.
4 5
O Y Y = C1  C2 = 40
4 5 M1 3 correct scenarios (1, 2 or 3 orange sweets) added on
O O Y = C2  C1 = 30
numerator, denominator 12 C3
O O R = 4 C2  3 C1 = 18
4
O O O = C3 =4
Total = 164
164
Prob = 12
C3

984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

 , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55
(c) Method 4

3 2 4 1 B1 17 17
P(R R O) =    P(R ^ ^) = or P(Y ^ ^) = . Accept unsimplified.
12 11 10 55 110 66
3 4 1
P(R O ) =   M1 3 correct scenarios added, with at least one 3-term product of
12 11 11
3 5 4 1 f g h
P(R Y O) =    form   seen, either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12.
12 11 10 22 12 d e
4 1
P(O 
12 3
5 3 4 1
P(Y R O) =   
12 11 10 22
5 4 5
P(Y O ) =  
12 11 33
5 4 4 2
P(Y Y O) =   
12 11 10 33

984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

 , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55

(c) Method 5

4 1 B1 8 28
P(O  P(^ O ) = or P(^ ^ O) = . Accept unsimplified.
12 3 33 165
8 4 8
P(^ O ) =   M1 3 correct scenarios added, with at least one 3-term product of
12 11 33
8 7 4 28 f g h
P(^ ^ O) =    form   seen, either d = 11, e = 10 or d = 12, e = 12
12 11 10 165 12 d e
with correct numerator.

984 41 A1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545

 , 0.745 If M0 scored SC B1 0.745 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.74545.
1320 55

3
27(a) 3 1 B1 0.0524288 rounded to more than 3SF if final answer
[Probability of lemon = = ]
15 5
 4 6 1  4096
  × =  , 0.0524
 5  5  78125

(b)  1
6 M1 4
6
1
1 −  or   . FT their or correct. From final answer
 5 5 5
5 5 6
4 1 4 4
Condone   or   ×   +  
5 5  5 5

4096 A1 0.262144 rounded to more than 3SF

, 0.262
15625

Alternative method for question 6(b)

[1 – P(1,2,3,4,5,[6]) =] M1 From final answer

5
 1 4 1  4  2 1  4 3 1  4  4 1  4  5 1  4 1
1 – + × +  × +  × +  × +  ×  Condone omission of   ×
  5 5
5 5 5  5 5  5 5  5 5  5 5

4096 A1 0.262144 rounded to more than 3SF

, 0.262
15625

2
(c) 10 9 8 M1 a a −1 a − 2
× × × × , no additional terms
15 14 13 15 14 13

24 A1 0.263736 rounded to more than 3SF

, 0∙264
91

Alternative method for question 6(c)

3 2 1 3 2 7 3 7 6 7 6 5 M1 [3Ls + 2Ls1S + 1L2Ss + 3Ss]

× × + 3× × × +3× × × + × × Condone one numerator error.
15 14 13 15 14 13 15 14 13 15 14 13
Condone no multiplications seen if tree diagram complete
with probabilities on each branch, scenarios listed and
attempt at evaluation

24 A1 0.263736 rounded to more than 3SF

, 0∙264
91

Alternative method for question 6(c)

5 4 3 5 4 10 5 10 9  M1 1 ‒ P(3,2,1 oranges)
1−  × × + 3× × × + 3× × ×  Condone one numerator error.
 15 14 13 15 14 13 15 14 13 

24 A1 0.263736 rounded to more than 3SF

, 0∙264
91

Alternative method for question 6(c)

10
C3 M1
15
c3

24 A1 0.263736 rounded to more than 3SF

, 0∙264
91

2
(d) 7 5 3 M1 7 5 3
× × × 3! All probabilities of the form: × × , 13 ⩽ a,b,c ⩽ 15
15 14 13 a b c

M1 e g i
× × ×3! e,f,g,h,i.j positive integers forming
f h j
probabilities
or 6 identical probability calculations or values added, no
additional terms

3 A1 0∙230769 rounded (not truncated) to more than 3SF

, 0∙231
13

Alternative method for question 6(d)

3
C1 × 5 C1 × 7 C1 M1 3
C1 × 5 C1 × 7 C1
15
, k integer > 1
C3 k
Condone use of permutations

M1 3
C a × 5 Cb × 7 C c
15
, 0<a<3, 0<b<5, 0<c<7,
C3
Condone use of permutations

3 A1 0∙230769 rounded (not truncated) to more than 3SF

, 0∙231
13

3
(e) 7 6 5 3 7 6 B1 3 7 6
× × + × × ×3 × × × 3 seen (SSL, SLS, LSS)
15 14 13 15 14 13  14 24  15 14 13
their ( c )  = 65 ÷ 91 
  3 126
SC B1 × 3, × 3 seen
65 2730

B1 7 6 5
× × seen in numerator (SSS)
15 14 13
210 1
SCB1 , seen in numerator
2730 13

M1 Fraction with their (c) or correct in denominator

 720 24 
 , , 0.263736 
 2730 91 

49 A1 Accept 0.816
= , 0∙817
60

Alternative method for question 6(e)

7
C 2 × 3 C1 + 7 C3 B1 7
C2 × 3 C1 seen (SSL, SLS, LSS)
10
C3 SCB1 21 × 3 seen or use of permutations

B1 7
C3 seen in numerator (SSS)
SCB1 35 seen in numerator or use of permutations

M1 Fraction with 10 C or consistent with their numerator of 6(c)

3
in denominator

49 A1 Accept 0.816
= , 0∙817
60

4
28(a) 1st 2nd 3rd B1 First and second jumps correct with probabilities
and outcomes identified.
0.3 S
0.3 S B1 Third jump correct with probabilities and outcomes
0.7 F identified.
S 0.1 S
0.2 0.7
F F
0.9
0.3 S
0.8 0.1 S
0.7
F F
0.9 0.1 S
F
0.9 F

(b) SFF 0.2  0.7  0.9  0.126 M1 Two or three correct 3 factor probabilities added,
FSF 0.8  0.1 0.7  0.056 correct or FT from part 6(a). Accept unsimplified.
FFS 0.8  0.9  0.1 0.072

 127  A1 Accept unsimplified.

[Total = probability of 1 success =] 0.254  
 500 

 44  B1 FT Accept unsimplified.
[Probability of at least 1 success = 1− 0.8  0.9  0.9 ]0.352  
 125 

their 0.254 M1 Accept unsimplified.

P(exactly 1 success | at least 1 success)=
their 0.352

127 A1 0.7215 < p ⩽ 0.722

0.722,
176

(c) 0.8  0.9  0.9  0.1 0.3  0.3  0.005832 [FFFSSS] M1 a × b × c × d × e × f FT from their tree diagram.
0.2  0.3  0.3  0.7  0.9  0.9  0.010206 [SSSFFF] Either a, b and c all = 0.8 or 0.9 (at least one of
each) and d, e and f all = 0.1 or 0.3 (at least one of
each).
Or a, b, c = 0.2 or 0.3 (at least one of each) and d,
e, f = 0.7 or 0.9 (at least one of each).

A1 Either correct. Accept unsimplified.

[Total =] 0.0160[38] A1

3
29(a) B1 1st throw fully correct with probabilities and outcomes identified.
 1
(Probabilities  all  and outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6) on branches).
 6

B1 2nd throw fully correct with probabilities and outcomes identified.

 1
(Probabilities  all  and outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6) on branches).
 6

2
(b) 1 1 1 7 B1 P(5) or P(7) identified and correct unsimplified, accept if
5 comes from 1+4 or 5: P(5) =  + = supported by correct scenarios shown or from tree diagram .
6 6 6 36
1 1 1
6 comes from 1+5 P(6) =  =
6 6 36
1 1 1 1 2
7 comes from 1+6 or 6+1 P(7) =  +  =
6 6 6 6 36
1 1 1
8 comes from 6+2 P(8) =  =
6 6 36
1 1 1
9 comes from 6+3 P(9) =  =
6 6 36

7 1 2 1 1 M1 Adding only the values from 5 correct scenarios.

P(A) = + + + +
36 36 36 36 36

12 1 A1 Scenarios identified (may be on tree diagram in 5(a)), all

= = probabilities seen, WWW AG.
36 3

(c) 1 6 M1 Both identified and evaluated, consistent with their tree diagram
P(B) = , P(A∩B)= or correct.
3 36

1 1 1 A1 P(A) × P(B) seen and evaluated, all notation present and correct.
P(A)P(B) =  = Correct conclusion WWW.
3 3 9
6 1
 , so not independent
36 9

(d) 6 B1 6
P ( B  A’) their
36 36
oe as numerator of a fraction.
P(B | A’) = =
P ( A ) 2
3 M1 6
their or correct
36 seen, consistent with their tree diagram.
1
their 1 − or correct
3

1 A1
, 0.25
4

3
30(a) 0.2 x + 0.12x + 0.70.25 = 0.235 M1 0.2 x + 0.1 2x + 0.70.25 or 0.2x + 0.2x + 0.175 seen.

M1 Equating their 3 term expression (2 terms involving x) to 0.235

x = 0.15 A1

(b)  P ( car and not late )  M1 0.1 (1 − 2  their x ) or 0.1  0.7 as numerator
 P(car |not late ) = 
 P ( not late )  and
0.2  (1 – their x) + 0.1  (1 – 2 × their x ) + 0.7  0.75 with values
0.1  (1 − 0.3)
substituted or 1 – 0.235 or 0.765 as denominator of fraction.
1 − 0.235 Condone 0.2  (1 – their x) + 0.1  (1 –  their x) + 0.7  0.75 as
denominator consistent with 1(a).

 0.07  70 14 A1 0.091503267 to at least 3SF.

 0.765 =  0.0915, 765 , 153 If M0 scored SC B1 for 0.091503267 to at least 3SF.
 

31(a) Method 1: Scenarios identified ignoring unbiased coin

1 3 3 M1 All 3 different calculations seen unsimplified.

P(BH1 BT2) =  =
4 4 16
3 1 3
P(BT1 BH2) =  =
4 4 16
1 1 1
P(BH1 BH2) =  =
4 4 16

3 3 1 7 A1 Clear identification of all scenarios, linked probabilities and sum.

+ + = AG
16 16 16 16
(a) Method 2: Scenarios identified with all 3 coins

1 1 3 3 M1 All 6 different calculations seen unsimplified.

P(H BH1 BT2) =   =
2 4 4 32
1 1 3 3
P(T BH1 BT2) =   =
2 4 4 32
1 3 1 3
P(H BT1 BH2) =   =
2 4 4 32
1 3 1 3
P(T BT1 BH2) =   =
2 4 4 32
1 1 1 1
P(H BH1 BH2) =   =
2 4 4 32
1 1 1 1
P(T BH1 BH2) =   =
2 4 4 32

1+ 3 + 3 +1 + 3 + 3 14 7 A1 Clear identification of all scenarios, linked probabilities and sum.

P(B) = = = AG
32 32 16

Method 3: 1- P(BT1 BT2) ignoring unbiased coin

3
2 M1 Calculation seen unsimplified
1 – P(BT1 BT2) = 1 −   and 1 – probability seen.
4

7 A1 Clear identification of scenario used, linked probability and

= calculation. AG
16
(a) Method 4: 1- P(BT1 BT2) with all 3 coins

1 3 3 1 3 3 M1 Both calculations seen unsimplified

1 – P(H BT1 BT2) – P(T BT1 BT2) = 1 −     −     and 1 – 2 probabilities seen.
2 4 4 2 4 4

9 9 7 A1 Clear identification of all scenarios used, linked probabilities and

= 1− − = calculation. AG
32 32 16

(b) 1 1 1 1 M1 Their identified P(HHH) or correct as numerator

 P ( A  B )  2  4  4 32 and their identified P(B) or correct as denominator.
 P ( A|B ) = = =
 P ( B)  7 7 Either numerical expression acceptable.
16 16

1 A1 Accept 0.071428… rounded to at least 3SF.

= , 0.0714
14

(c) 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 15 B1 Table with correct X values and at least one probability.

P(1H) =   +   +   = Condone any additional X values if probability stated as 0.
2 4 4 2 4 4 2 4 4 32
1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 7
P(2H) =   +   +   = B1 P(1) or P(2) correct, need not be in table, accept unsimplified.
2 4 4 2 4 4 2 4 4 32
B1 4 correct probabilities linked with correct outcomes, may not be in
X 0 1 2 3 table.
p(X) 9 15 7 1 Decimals correct to at least 3 SF.
32 32 32 32
0.28125 0.46875 0.21875 0.03125 SC B1 for 4 probabilities (0 < p < 1) sum to 1 ± 0.005 with P(1)
and P(2) incorrect.

3
32(a) 3 2 5 3 M1 3 2 5 3
[P(SR TR) + P(SW TR) =]  +   + k or l +  0 < k,l < 1
8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7

21 3 A1 3
= , , 0.375 SC B1 for with no explanation.
56 8 8

(b) [RRWR, WRRR, WRWR] M1 m n o q

   1 ⩽ m,n,o,q ⩽ 5, m ≠ n ≠ o ≠ q
3 2 5 1 5 3 2 1 5 3 4 2 8 7 6 5
   +    +   
8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 8 7 6 5
1 1 1 A1 Probability for one scenario correct, accept unsimplified.
[= + + ]
56 56 14
M1 Adding probabilities for 3 correct scenarios and no incorrect.

180 3 A1 Or 0.1071428… to 4SF or better.

= , , 0.107 SC B1 for 3/28 with inadequate explanation.
1680 28

(c) 30 1 M1 3 2 5 1
their P ( RRWR ) or   
[P(S first disc R |T2 ) =] 1680 = 56 8 7 6 5
3 3 3
their 7 ( b ) − must be a prob or
28 28 28

1 A1
, 0.167
6

33 (1 – x) × 0.7 × 0.9 = 0.36 M1 (1− x )  ab = 0.36, a = 0.7 or 0.3, b = 0.9 or 0.1
B1 (1-x)×0.7×0.9=0.36, (1-x)×0.63=0.36,
0.36
0.63 – 0.63x = 0.36 or 1 − x = seen.
0.63
Condone recovery from omission of brackets.

3 A1 Accept 0.428571 to at least 3 sf.

x= Condone 0.4285 rounding to 0.429 .
7
3
If M0 awarded, SC B1 for x = or 0.428571 to at least 3 sf.
7

3
 34 1 8 1 B1 Both stated, accept unsimplified.
P(A) = , P(B) = = ,
2 24 3

1 M1 Evidence that independence properties not used.

P(A B ) =
6

1 1 1 A1 Evaluated and conclusion stated.

P(A) × P(B) =  = P(A) × P(B) and P(A B ) seen.
2 3 6
so events are independent

35(a) 10 B1 10 5
P(A) = Accept P(A) = , , 0.278
36 36 18
24 24 2
P(B) = and P(B) = , , 0.667 .
36 36 3

8 B1
P(A ∩ B) =
36

10 24 M1 Their P(A) × their P(B) seen numerically,

 0 ⩽ their P(A), P(B) ⩽ 1.
36 36

5  8 A1 FT Multiplication evaluated correctly and compared with intersection

 , 0.185    that is not a product of multiplication, conclusion stated, notation
27  36 
P(A), P(B) and P(A ∩ B) used.
Events are not independent

4
(b)  P  B  A   M1 16
 P  B  A   , 0.4444
 P  B|A   
 P  A  
36
or their P(B) – their P(A ∩ B) seen as numerator or denominator
16 of conditional probability fraction.
36
 10  M1
1    10  26
 P  A    1   , , 0.7222 or 1 – their P(A) seen as
 36 
 36  36
denominator of conditional probability fraction.

8 A1 16 8
 Final answer , , 0.6153846 to at least 3SF.
13 26 13

Alternative Method for Question 5(b): Direct from outcome tables

 Number of outcomes  B  A   M1  Number of outcomes  B  A   16 seen as numerator or

 P  B|A   
 Number of outcomes  A   denominator of conditional probability fraction.
16
26
M1 Number
 of outcomes  A    26 seen as denominator of
conditional probability fraction.

A1 16 8
Final answer , , 0.6153846 to at least 3SF.
26 13

36(a) [P(WW) = P(AWW) + P(BWW) =] M1 2 8 7 4 6 5

Either   or   seen, accept unsimplified.
2 8 7 4 6 5 6 15 14 6 15 14
  +  
6 15 14 6 15 14
M1 q r r −1 6 − q s s −1
  +   seen, no additional terms, accept
6 15 14 6 15 14
unsimplified.
q r r 6−q s s
Condone   +   ,
6 15 15 6 15 15
1 ⩽ q ⩽ 5, 1 < r, s <9.

 56 60 4 2 58 A1 SC B1 for 58/315 if either M mark withheld.

 = 630 + 630 = 45 + 21  = 315 or 0.184
 

3
(b)  P ( W & R from bag B )  B1 P(W & R from bag B)
 P(B |WR or RW) = =
P ( W and R )
2 6 7 2 7 6 2 6 7 4
  =   +   or 2    [= or 0.267]
3 15 14 3 15 14 3 15 14 15
4 6 7 4 7 6
  +   Seen alone or as numerator/denominator of conditional
6 15 14 6 15 14 probability.
2 8 4 2 4 8 4 6 7 4 7 6
  +   +   +  
6 15 14 6 15 14 6 15 14 6 15 14 M1 P(WR or RW) = P(W & R from bag A) + P(W & R from bag B)
2 8 4 4 6 7
= a   + a    or
4 6 7 6 15 14 6 15 14
2  
or 6 15 14 2 8 4
2 8 4 4 6 7 = a    + their P(W & R from bag B ).
2   + 2   6 15 14
6 15 14 6 15 14 a = 1 or 2.
116
[expect or 0.368 ]
315
Seen alone or as numerator/denominator of conditional
probability.

168 4 M1 their identified P (W & R from bag B )

630 = 15 their identified P ( WR or RW )
232 116
630 315 Accept unsimplified.

168 21 A1 0.7241379 to at least 3SF.

= , or 0.724
232 29

4
37(a) B1 1st column, 2 branches identified X, Y with
probabilities ½, ½ indicated.

B1 2nd column (1st marble pick) of 4 branches

identified R B R B (oe) and probabilities
7 3 4 1
, , , indicated appropriately.
10 10 5 5

B1 3rd column (2nd marble pick) of 8 branches

identified R B R B R B R [B] (oe) and
7 3 8 2 4 1
probabilities , , , , , ,1,0 .
10 10 10 10 5 5

Condone omission of YBB branch if YBR

branch is fully correct.
. Ignore any additional columns of branches.

If separate tree diagrams for bags X and Y,

B0B1B1 max if bags clearly identified.

3
(b) [P(both same colour) = P(BB) + P(RR) = P(XBB) + P(XRR) + P(YRR) =] B1 FT 1 3 2  1 1   6
P ( BB) =    +   0 = 
1 3 2 1 7 7 1 4 4  2 10 10  2 5   200
  +   +   seen. Accept unsimplified.
2 10 10 2 10 10 2 5 5 FT from 6(a) unsimplified only with 3 term
probabilities.
 6 49 16 
 = 200 + 200 + 50 , 0.03 + 0.245 + 0.32
  B1 FT 1 7 7
Either [P(XRR) =]   or
2 10 10
1 4 4
[P(YRR) =]   seen.
2 5 5
FT from 6(a) unsimplified only with 3 term
probabilities.

M1 [P(BB) + P(XRR) + P(YRR) =]

6 49 16
their + their + their
200 200 50
Accept unsimplified, consistent with tree
diagram if not clearly identified by notation.

119 A1
= , 0.595
200

4 Special case: if ½ omitted consistently in the

tree diagram and the calculation (i.e., no
probability for picking the bags), no FT.
3 2  1 
SC B1 [P(BB) =]  + 0
10 10  5 
7 7 4 4
SC B1 [P(RR) =]  + 
10 10 5 5
3 2 1  7 7 4 4
SC B1  + 0 +  + 
10 10  5  10 10 5 5
(c)   P ( bag Y  different colours )   M1 FT from their 6(a) and their 6(b) with 3 term
 P( bag Y | different colours) =    probabilities unsimplified only or correct.
  P ( different colours )   4 1 2 1
+ +
1 4 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 0.08 + 0.1
  +  1   +  1 Accept 50 10 , 25 10 , .
2 5 5 2 5 2 5 5 2 5 81 81 0.405
or
 119  1 7 3 1 3 8 1 4 1 1 1
  +   +   +  1
200 200
1 − their  
 200  2 10 10 2 10 10 2 5 5 2 5

 9  A1
Accept
36
, 0. 4.
  4 81
=  50  = , 0.444
 81  9
 200 

2 Special case: if ½ omitted consistently in the

tree diagram and the calculation (ie no
probability for picking the bags), no FT.
4 1 1
 + 1
SC B1 5 5 5 ,
1 − their 6(b)
4 1 1
 + 1
or 5 5 5 .
7 3 3 8 4 1 1
 +  +  + 1
10 10 10 10 5 5 5