Chapter 3

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PROBABILITY
Content
Learning objectives
1. Using Statistics
2. Basic definitions: Events, - Define probability
Sample space, and Probabilities - Distinguish between
3. Basic rules for Propability subjective and objective
4. Conditional probability, Law of probability
total probability and Bayes’ - Explain the concept of
Theorem conditional probability and how
5. The Joint probability table and to compute it
Contingency table - Describe permutation and
6. Distribution of probability of combination
discrete variables - Explain Bayes’ theorem and
its application
- Distinguish between Binomial
and Poisson distribution
- Using Excel to calculate the
probability
PROBABILITY
A quantitative measure of uncertainty
A measure of the strength of belief in the occurrence of an uncertain
event
A measure of the degree of chance or likelihood of occurrence of an
uncertain event
Measured by a number between 0 and 1 (or between 0% and 100%)
3 types of probability Subjective Probability
Objective or Classical Probability ✓ based on personal beliefs,
✓ based on equally-likely events experiences, prejudices, intuition –
✓ based on long-run relative personal judgment
frequency of events ✓ different for all observers (subjective)
✓ not based on personal beliefs Emperical Probability
✓ is the same for all observers ✓ based on observed data derived from past
(objective) occurrences or experiments
✓ based on real-world observations
✓ different if more collecting
 Let’s test your understanding
1. The probability of an enzyme being in its active conformation at a given substrate
concentration affects its binding affinity to the substrate.
2. From a study of 100 cancer patients, it is observed that 80% respond positively to
a particular chemotherapy regimen.
3. In a population of rabbits, the probability of randomly selecting an individual with
white fur is 40%.
4. Based on symptoms and medical history, a physician assesses the probability of a
patient having a particular disease.
5. Among soil samples collected, the probability of finding mycorrhizal fungi in a
given sample is 20%.
6. Offspring of two heterozygous individuals (Aa) have a probability of inheriting
the homozygous recessive genotype (aa).
7. After observing interactions between herbivores and plants in a grassland
ecosystem, 30% of the observed plants show signs of herbivore damage.
8. In studying the foraging behavior of a species, researchers observe that individuals
exhibit a preference for certain food sources.
 Let’s test your understanding
9. When assessing the success of a reintroduction program for an endangered
species, conservationists evaluate the probability of establishing a viable
population.
10. In a clinical trial with 200 participants, the probability of experiencing side effects
from a drug is observed to be 25%.
11. During meiosis, the probability of observing a recombination event between genes
located on different chromosomes depends on their distance from each other.
12. Scientists predict that the probability of coral bleaching events increasing in
frequency due to climate change is high.
13. Following a birdwatching survey in a forest, the probability of encountering a
woodpecker is 30% based on observed bird populations.
14. In a population with a known infection rate of 20%, individuals have a probability
of contracting the disease given exposure.
15. The probability of an enzyme being in its active conformation at a given substrate
concentration affects its binding affinity to the substrate.
Equally-likely Probabilities
(Hypothetical or Ideal Experiments)
Basic Rules for Probability
COMBINATIONS and PERMUTATIONS
 Let’s test your understanding
1. Team Formation: A coach needs to select 5 players for a starting lineup from a
squad of 12 players. How many different combinations of players can the coach
assemble for the starting lineup?
2. Password Creation: If a password consists of 6 characters chosen from a set of
10 alphanumeric characters, how many different arrangements of passwords are
possible?
3. Class Scheduling: A student needs to select 4 courses from a list of 10 electives to
complete their schedule for the semester. How many different sets of courses can the
student select?
4. Seating Arrangements: In a theater with 8 rows and 10 seats per row, how many
different arrangements of seating are possible for a group of 6 people?
5. Travel Itinerary: A traveler plans to visit 4 cities during a trip. How many
different orders of travel destinations are possible if they can visit each city only once?
 Let’s test your understanding
6. Race Rankings: In a track event with 10 participants, how many different orders
of rankings are possible for the top 3 finishers?
7. Event Planning: A party planner is organizing an event and needs to choose 3
entertainment options from a list of 7 activities. How many different sets of
entertainment options can the planner choose for the event?
8. Inventory Management: In a warehouse, there are 8 different types of products
available. If a store manager wants to select 3 products for a promotional offer, how
many different selections of products can they choose from?
9. Menu Planning: A restaurant offers a selection of 5 appetizers, 6 main courses,
and 4 desserts. How many different choices of meals can a customer order if they
select one item from each category?
10. Book Arrangement: A librarian needs to arrange 5 books on a shelf. How many
different orders of book arrangements are possible?
 Contingency Table and Joint Probability Table
- A joint probability table is similar to a contingency table,
except that it has probabilities in place of frequencies
- The row totals and column totals are called marginal
probabilities.
Example: Two groups of individuals were tested the effect of inoculation
in Cholera attack. One group had inoculated medicines, the other had no
medicines. Calculate the probability that an individual has no cholera’
attacked given that individual got inoculated medicines.
Attacked Unattacked Total
Inoculated 11 89 100
Uninoculated 21 79 100
Total 32 168 200
Attacked Unattacked Total
Inoculated 0.055 0.445 0.50
Uninoculated 0.105 0.395 0.50
Total 0.160 0.840 1.00
Conditional Probabilities
Product Rules for Independent events
The Law of Total Probabilities
Bayes’ Theorem
 Chapter 3 (cont.)

DISTRIBUTION OF PROBABILITY
Discrete Random Variables
100 200 300 400 500 600
spending ($)

50

38

30 31

22

13
100 200 300 400 500 600
spending ($)
100 200 300 400 500 600
spending ($)
Discrete Random Variables
Example

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Example

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Example

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TYPES of RANDOM VARIABLES
A discrete random variable:
✓ has a countable number of possible
values
✓ has discrete jumps (or gaps) between
successive values
✓ has measurable probability associated
with individual values
✓ counts
A continuous random variable:
✓ has an uncountably infinite number
of possible values
✓ moves continuously from value to
value
✓ has no measurable probability
associated with each value
✓ measures
Binomial Distribution

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Example

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Example

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Poisson Distribution

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Poisson Distribution

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Example