ENGR 200 Fall 2019

Solutions of Midterm 1 Study Questions

1.
(a)

P (A ∩ B) P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) > P (A) ⇒ > P (A) ⇒ > P (B) ⇒ P (B|A) > P (B)
P (B) P (A)

(b)
i. P (E) = 0.4, P (E|F ) = P (E) ⇒ P (E|F ) = 0.4
ii.P (E ∩ F ) = 0 ⇒ P (E|F ) = 0
P (F )
iii.F ⊂ E ⇒ P (E ∩ F ) = P (F ) ⇒ P (E|F ) = P (F )
=1
P (E) 0.4
iv.E ⊂ F ⇒ P (E ∩ F ) = P (E) ⇒ P (E|F ) = P (F )
= P (F )

2.

20


(a) We need to find probabilities for x = 0, 1, 2, 3. The sample space consists of the 3

different ways that we can select 3 items out of the available items. For the events
of the interest to occur, we have to select x defected items out of the 4 defected
items, which can be done in x4 ways, and also select 3 − x non-defected out of the

16


16 items that are not defected, which can be done in 3−x ways. Therefore, we can
write probabilities of selecting x defected items as follows:

4 16



0 560
pX (0) = 20

3 =
1140

3

4 16
1 480
pX (1) = 20

2 =
1140

3

4 16
2 96
pX (2) = 20

1 =
1140

3

4 16
3 4
pX (3) = 20

0 =
3
1140

1
 Then, the probability mass function is as follows:

560




 1140
, x=0



480




 1140
, x=1


pX (x) = 96
, x=2
 1140



4




 1140
, x=3




0,
 o.w

(b) Expected value of X is

E[X] = 0.pX (0) + 1.pX (1) + 2 ∗ pX (2) + 3.pX (3)

560 480 96 4
= 0. + 1. +2 + 3.
1140 1140 1140 1140
684
=
1140
3
=
5

(c) To find the variance of X, let us first calculate E[X 2 ]:

E[X 2 ] = 02 .pX (0) + 12 .pX (1) + 22 .pX (2) + 32 .pX (3)

560 480 96 4
= 0. + 1. +4 + 9.
1140 1140 1140 1140
900
=
1140
15
=
19

2
 Then,

V ar(X) = E[X 2 ] − E[X]2

15  3 2
= −
19 5
204
=
475

3.
(a) We define C and A as
C: batch C is selected
L:one of the two components is defective

2

8

1 16
P (L|C) =
1 =
10
2
45

(b) M:exactly one of the two components is defective

A: batch A is selected
B: batch B is selected
C: batch C is selected

1

9
2

8

1 1 1
P (M ) = P (M |A)P (A) + P (M |B)P (B) + P (M |C)P (C) = 0 +
× 0.3 +
10

1 × 0.2
10
2 2

(c) Z:both components defective

A: batch A is selected
B: batch B is selected
C: batch C is selected

P (C)P (Z|C) P (Z|C)P (C)

P (C|Z) = = =1
P (Z) P (Z|A)P (A) + P (Z|B)P (B) + P (Z|C)P (C)

(d) S:none of the two components defective

A: batch A is selected
B: batch B is selected

3
C: batch C is selected

P (S|A)P (A)
P (A|S) = =
P (S|A)P (A) + P (S|B)P (B) + P (S|C)P (C)
(102)×0.5
(102)
(102)×0.5 ( )( )×0.3 (20)(82)×0.2
1 9
+ 0 210 +
(102) (2) (102)
(e) X:number of defective components,0,1,2
E(X) = 0 × P (X = 0) + 1 × P (X = 1) + 2 × P (X = 2)
= P (X = 1|A)P (A) + P (X = 1|B)P (B) + P (X = 1|C)P (C)+
2 × [P (X = 2)|A)P (A) + P (X = 2)|B)P (B) + P (X = 2)|C)P (C)] =
(1)(9)×0.3 (11)(81)×0.2 (2)(8)×0.2
= 1 110 + 10 + 2 × 2 010
(2) (2) (2)

4. Let X be number of tosses required until you get a sum of 5 or a sum of 7.

(a) First alternative,

E[X] = E[X|a sum of 5 or 7 is achieved]P (a sum of 5 or 7 is achieved)

+ E[X|a sum of 5 or 7 not achieved]P (a sum of 5 or 7 not achieved)

10 26
E[X] = 1. + (1 + E[X])
36 36
36
E[X] =
10
= 3.6

Another alternative is that since the number of tosses required until the end of the
10 1 36
game is a geometric random variable with p = , then E[X] = = .
36 p 10

(b) We are asked to find the probability of achieving a sum of 7 before achieving a sum

4
 of 5. Let Y be achieving a sum of 7 before achieving a sum of 5, then:

P (Y ) = P (Y |a sum of 7 on first roll)P (a sum of 7 on first roll)

+ P (Y |neither a sum of 7 nor 5 on first roll)P (neither a sum of 7 nor 5 on first roll)

+ P (Y |a sum of 5 on first roll)P (a sum of 5 on first roll)

6 26 4
P (Y ) = + P (Y ). + 0.
36 36 36
3
P (Y ) =
5

(c)

E[X] = 3.P (a sum of 5 before a 7) − 2.P (a sum of 7 before a 5)

2 3
= 3. − 2.
5 5
=0

(d)

E[X 2 ] = 32 .P (a sum of 5 before a 7) + (−2)2 .P (a sum of 7 before a 5)

2 3
= 9. + 4.
5 5
=6

V ar(X) = E[X 2 ] − E[X]2

=6

5. Let Xi denote the outcome of the ith roll.

5
 (a)

P (X1 < X4 , X2 < X4 , X3 < X4 |X4 = 3)

= P (X1 < X4 |X4 = 3).P (X2 < X4 |X4 = 3).P (X3 < X4 |X4 = 3)
 2 3
=
6

Note that the first equality comes from the independence.

(b) The game is won only when max{X1 , X2 , X3 } < X4

6
X
P (max{X1 , X2 , X3 } < X4 ) = P (max{X1 , X2 , X3 } < X4 |X4 = j).P (X4 = j)
j=1
1  1 3 1  2 3 1  3 3 1  4 3 1  5 3 1
= 0. + . + . + . + . + .
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
225
=
1296

Note that each die being less than the forth one is independent of others being less
than the fourth one.

(c) Let Y be the payoff of the game. Then:

E[Y ] = 100.P (X4 > max{X1 , X2 , X3 }) − 10.P (X4 ≤ max{X1 , X2 , X3 })

 225    225 
= 100. − 10 1 −
1296 1296
= 9.0972

6.
(a) Let random variable X be the number of inspections required until the flaw is
detected.
The probability of a detection of the flaw at the second inspection can be represented
as P (X = 2). As the inspections are successive, a detection of the flaw at the second
inspection indicates a fail in the first attempt. Then, we need to find the probability of

6
detecting after one not being able to detect. Note that inspections are independent from
each other. So,

P (X = 2) = (1 − p)p

(b) Let D be the event of detecting a flaw in an inspection with probability P (D) = p
and Dc be not detecting it with P (Dc ) = 1 − p. Let random variable X be the number
of inspections required until the flaw is detected.
The detection at the nth inspection entails n − 1 unsuccessful trial. As the probability
of detecting is same for each trial and independent from previous ones, we can write

P (X = n) = P (Dc )n−1 P (D) = (1 − p)n−1 p

which is a geometric random variable.

(c) A flawed item passing all three inspections means 3 consecutive failed inspections.
Let this event be A. Probability of passing each inspection is (1 − p) and independent
from each other, so P (A) = (1 − p)3
(d)
F : chosen ball has a flaw with P (F ) = 0.1 (given)
F c : chosen ball has not a flaw with P (F c ) = 0.9 (given)
A: randomly chosen item passing 3 inspections
P (A|F c ) = 1 since if there is no flaw item definitely passes the inspection
P (A|F ): what we calculated in part c.

P (A) = P (F )P (A|F ) + P (F c )P (A|F c )

= 0.1(1 − p)3 + 0.9

7
 (e)

P (A|F )P (F )
P (F |A) =
P (A)
0.1(1 − 0.2)3
= = 0.054
0.1(1 − 0.2)3 + 0.9

7.
(a)
P (A) = 0.2, P (B) = 0.3, P (c) = P (A ∪ B), P (D) = ((A ∩ B c ) ∪ (B ∩ Ac ))
P (C) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = 0.2 + 0.3 − 0.2 × 0.3 = 0.44
(b)
P (D) = ((A ∩ B c ) ∪ (B ∩ Ac )) = P (A) − P (A ∩ B) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = P (A) +
P (B) − 2P (A) = 0.2 + 0.3 − 2 × 0.3 × 0.2 = 0.38
(c)
P (A∩D) P (A∩B c ) P (A)−P (A∩B) 0.14 14
P (A|D) = P (D)
= P (D)
= P (D)
= 0.38
= 38
P (D∩A) 0.14 14
P (D|A) = P (A)
= 0.2
= 20

(d)
P (D|A) 6= P (D) , so D and A are dependent

8.
(a) Number of ways to choose 3 girls out of 12 and 2 boys out of 10.

  
12 10
3 2

(b) Sample space Ω: choosing 5 people from the whole class so |Ω| = 22


5

Event A: Choosing 3 girls and 2 boys (from part (a)) so |A| = 12

10

3 2

12 10



|A| 3 2
P (A) = = 22


|Ω| 5

(c) Total class number: n = 10+12 = 22

n people can sit around a table in (n-1)! different ways. So answer is (22-1)!=21!

8
9.
P
(a) To have a proper pmf, x∈{1,4,9} pX (x) = 1 should be satisfied:
pX (1) + pX (4) + pX (9) = 1
√ √
a+a 4+a 9=1
6a = 1
1
a= 6

(b)
P (X = 4 and X < 9)
P (X = 4|X < 9) =
P (X < 9)
P (X = 4)
P (X = 4|X < 9) =
P (X < 9) √ 1 1
P (X < 9) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 4) = a + a 4 = 3a = 3 · 6
= 2
1 1
P (X = 4) = 2a = 2 · 6
= 3

Then,
P (X = 4) 1/3 2
P (X = 4|X < 9) = = =
P (X < 9) 1/2 3
(c)
P
E(X) = x∈{1,4,9} xpX (x)
E(X) = 1 · pX (1) + 4 · pX (4) + 9 · pX (9)
√ √
E(X) = 1 · a + 4 · a 4 + 9 · a 9
E(X) = a + 4 · 2a + 9 · 3a
1
E(X) = 36a = 36 · 6

E(X) = 6
(d)
P √
E(X) = xpX (x)
x∈{1,4,9}
√ √
E(X) = 1 · pX (1) + 4 · pX (4) + 9 · pX (9)
√ √
E(X) = 1 · a + 2 · a 4 + 3 · a 9
E(X) = a + 2 · 2a + 3 · 3a
1
E(X) = 14a = 14 · 6
7
E(X) = 3

10.
(a) Let X be the random variable representing the demand for the bicycle. We need

9
 to calculate P (X ≥ 1):
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X = 0)
Since X has Poisson distribution with parameter λ = 1,
e−λ λx e−1 1x
P (X = x) = = for x = 0, 1, 2.... Hence,
x! x!
e−λ λ0
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X = 0) = 1 −
0!
−λ
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − e
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − e−1 = 0.6321.
(b) Let R be the random variable that represents the revenue. When the demand is
0,you are not able to sell your bike, which means that R = 0. When the demand is
above 1, you are able to sell your bike and the revenue is R = 100 TL. Therefore,
expected revenue is:
P∞ P∞
E(R) = 0 · P (X = 0) + x=1 100 · P (X = x) = 100 x=1 P (X = x)
E(R) = 100(1 − P (X = 0))
E(R) = 100(1 − e−λ )
E(R) = 100(1 − e−1 ) = 63.21 TL
(c) Since the expected revenue is 63.21 TL, which is greater than 50 TL, we should
not sell it at 50 TL.

11.
(a) X has a geometric distribution with the parameter p = 0.6:
P (X = x) = xk=1 (1 − p)k−1 p for x = 1, 2, ...
P

P (X ≤ 2) = p + (1 − p)p = 0.6 + (0.4)(0.6) = 0.84

(b) For the geometric random variable, E[X] = 1/p. Thus, E[X] = 1/0.6 = 5/3
minutes.
(c) C(x) > 4 ⇒ x2 /3 + 1 > 4 ⇒ x > 3
P (C(X) > 4) = P (X > 3) = 1 − P (X ≤ 2) = 1 − 0.84 = 0.16, where P (X ≤ 2)
comes from part a.
(d) E[C(X)] = E[X 2 /3 + 1] = E[X 2 ]/3 + 1

10
 We know that E[X 2 ] = V [X] + E 2 [X]. V (X) = (1 − p)/p2 and E[X] = 1/p for
the geometric random variable. Thus,
E[X 2 ] = V [X] + E 2 [X] = (1 − 0.6)/0.62 + (1/0.6)2 = 10/9 + 25/9 = 35/9.
E[C(X)] = E[X 2 /3 + 1] = E[X 2 ]/3 + 1 = (35/9)(1/3) + 1 = 35/27 + 1 = 62/27
12.
(a)

3 X 2
X c
=1
x=1 y=1
xy
c c c c c
c+ + + + + =1
2 2 4 3 6
11c/4 = 1

c = 4/11

(b) pX (x) = 2y=1 4/11 = 4/11 + 4/11 4 2 6

P
xy x 2x
= 11x + 11x
= 11x
for x = 1, 2, 3
E[X] = 3x=1 x 11x
6
= 3x=1 11 6
P P
= 18/11
(c) The minimum value of Z is 1 and the maximum value is 3.
P (Z = 1) = pX,Y (1, 1) = 4/11
P (Z = 2) = pX,Y (1, 2) + pX,Y (2, 1) + pX,Y (2, 2)
4/11 4/11 4/11
P (Z = 2) = 2
+ 2
+ 4
= 2/11 + 2/11 + 1/11 = 5/11
4/11 4/11
P (Z = 3) = pX,Y (3, 1) + pX,Y (3, 2) = 3
+ 6
= 4/33 + 2/33 = 6/33 = 2/11
Then the pmf of Z is





 4/11, if z = 1




5/11, if z = 2

pZ (z) =




 2/11, if z = 3




0
 otherwise

P3
(d) E[Z] = z=1 zpZ (z) = (1)(4/11) + (2)(5/11) + (3)(2/11) = 20/11
P3
(e) E[Z 2 ] = z=1 z 2 pZ (z) = (1)(4/11) + (4)(5/11) + (9)(2/11) = 42/11

11
 V (Z) = E[Z 2 ] − E 2 [Z] = 42/11 − (20/11)2 = 0.5124
13.
(a) E[X]= 2.a + 0.b + 0.05.(−1) + 0.15.3 + 0.25.(−2) = 2.a − 0.1 = 0.5 → a = 0.3
P
x pX (x) = a + b + 0.05 + 0.15 + 0.25 = 0.75 + b = 1 → b = 0.25

(b) E[X2 + 2]=E[X2 ]+E[2]=E[X2 ]+2

E[X2 ]= x pX (x)X 2 = 0.3(2)2 + 0.25(0)2 + 0.05(−1)2 + 0.15(3)2 + 0.25(−2)2 =2.52
P

(c) Var[Y]=Var[2X+1]= 4Var[X]= 4(E[X2 ]-E[X]2 )= 4(2.52 − 0.52 ) = 9.08

(d) P (X ≥ Y ) = P (X = −1) + P (X = −2) = 0.3
14.
8 10



(a) There are 4
ways to pick 4 lower level classes, and 3
ways to choose 3 higher
level classes, so there are
8

10

4 3
valid curricula.
(b) We need to consider several different cases:
Suppose we do not choose L1 . Then both L2 and L3 must be chosen; otherwise no
higher level courses would be allowed. Thus, we need to choose 2 more lower
level classes out of the remaining 5, and 3 higher level classes from the available 5.
We then obtain 52 53 valid curricula.

If we choose L1 but choose neither L2 nor L3 , we have 53 53 choices.

5

5

If we choose L1 and choose one of L2 or L3 , we have 2 · choices. This is
2 3

because there are two ways of choosing between L2 and L3 , 52 ways of choosing 2

lower level classes from [L4 , ..., L8 ] and 53 ways of choosing 3 higher level classes from

[H1 , ..., H5 ].
5 10



Finally, if we choose L1 , L2 , and L3 , we have 1 3
choices. The total is found by
adding the above four.

12