DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

III – B.Tech – I – Sem (A & C Sections)

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENGE (20-CS-PC-314)

(R20 Regulations)

By
Dr.A.Nirmal Kumar

11
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
- The Future

2
SYLLABUS

3
 COURSE OUTCOMES
Upon completion of the course, the student will be able
CO 1: To explain the concepts of artificial intelligence
(Unit – I)
CO 2: To illustrate various search algorithms
(Unit – II)
CO 3: To adapt various probabilistic reasoning
approaches (Unit – III)
CO 4: To elaborate Markov decision process
(Unit – IV)
CO 5: To perceive various reinforcement learning
approaches (Unit – V)
4
 UNIT – III
Probabilistic Reasoning
Part-A:
 Probability
 Conditional probability
 Bayes Rule
 Bayesian Networks- representation
 Construction and inference
Part-B:
 Temporal Model
 Hidden Markov Model
Probabilistic reasoning in Artificial Intelligence
Uncertainty:
• Till now, we have learned knowledge
representation using first-order logic and
propositional logic with certainty, which means
we were sure about the predicates. With this
knowledge representation, we might write A→B,
which means if A is true then B is true, but
consider a situation where we are not sure about
whether A is true or not then we cannot express
this statement, this situation is called uncertainty.
• So to represent uncertain knowledge, where we
are not sure about the predicates, we need
uncertain reasoning or probabilistic reasoning.
Causes of Uncertainty:
Following are some leading causes of
uncertainty to occur in the real world.
1. Information occurred from unreliable sources
2. Experimental Errors
3. Equipment fault
4. Temperature variation
5. Climate change
 Probabilistic Reasoning
• Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge
representation where we apply the concept of probability
to indicate the uncertainty in knowledge. In probabilistic
reasoning, we combine probability theory with logic to
handle the uncertainty.
• We use probability in probabilistic reasoning because it
provides a way to handle the uncertainty that is the result
of someone's laziness and ignorance.
• In the real world, there are lots of scenarios, where the
certainty of something is not confirmed, such as "It will
rain today," "behavior of someone for some situations,"
"A match between two teams or two players." These are
probable sentences for which we can assume that it will
happen but not sure about it, so here we use probabilistic
reasoning.
Need of probabilistic reasoning in AI:
• When there are unpredictable outcomes.
• When specifications or possibilities of
predicates becomes too large to handle.
• When an unknown error occurs during an
experiment.
In probabilistic reasoning, there are two ways to
solve problems with uncertain knowledge:
• Bayes' rule
• Bayesian Statistics
 Probability
• Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain
event will occur.
• It is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an
event will occur.
• The value of probability always remains between 0 and
1 that represent ideal uncertainties.
• Probability implies 'likelihood' or 'chance'.
• When an event is certain to happen then the probability
of occurrence of that event is 1 and when it is certain
that the event cannot happen then the probability of that
event is 0.
• Hence the value of probability ranges from 0 to 1.
Probability has been defined in a varied manner by
various schools of thought.
 Classical Definition of Probability
• As the name suggests the classical approach to defining
probability is the oldest approach. It states that if there are
n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely cases
out of which m cases are favorable to the happening of
event A.
Example
• Problem Statement:
A coin is tossed. What is the probability of getting a
head?
• Solution:
Total number of equally likely outcomes (n) = 2 (i.e. head
or tail)
Number of outcomes favorable to head (m) = 1
• 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, where P(A) is the probability of an eve
nt A.
• P(A) = 0, indicates total uncertainty in an event A.
• P(A) =1, indicates total certainty in an event A.
We can find the probability of an uncertain event
by using the below formula.
• Probability of Occurrence = (Number of
desired Outcomes / Total No of Outcomes)
• P(¬A) = probability of a not happening event.
• P(¬A) + P(A) = 1.
 Terminologies in Probability Theory
• Event: Each possible outcome of a variable is called
an event.
• Sample space: The collection of all possible events is
called sample space.
• Random variables: Random variables are used to
represent the events and objects in the real world.
• Prior probability: The prior probability of an event
is probability computed before observing new
information.
• Posterior Probability: The probability that is
calculated after all evidence or information has taken
into account. It is a combination of prior probability
and new information.
Basic Probability Rules
• Probability Rule One (For any event A, 0 ≤
P(A) ≤ 1)
• Probability Rule Two (The sum of the
probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1)
• Probability Rule Three (The Complement
Rule)
• Probabilities Involving Multiple Events.
• Probability Rule Four (Addition Rule for
Disjoint Events)
• Finding P(A and B) using Logic.
How is probability used in real life?
• You use probability in daily life to make
decisions when you don't know for sure what
the outcome will be. Most of the time, you
won't perform actual probability problems,
but you'll use subjective probability to make
judgment calls and determine the best course
of action.
What is a certain event?
• A certain event is an event that is sure to
happen. E is a certain event if and only if P(E)
= 1. Example. In flipping a coin once,
a certain event would be getting a head or a
tail.
• The probability formula provides the ratio
of the number of favorable outcomes
to the total number of possible outcomes. The
probability of an Event = (Number of
favorable outcomes) / (Total number of
possible outcomes) P(A) = n(E) / n(S)
What is impossible event?
• An impossible event is an event that cannot
happen. E is an impossible event if and only if
P(E) = 0. Example. In flipping a coin once,
an impossible event would be getting BOTH a
head AND a tail.
• The probability line is a line that
shows probabilities and how
these probabilities relate to each other. Since
the probability of an event is a number from 0
to 1, we can use the probability line above to
show the possible ranges of probability values.
Four perspectives on probability are
commonly used:
• Classical (sometimes called "A priori" or "Theoretical") ...
• Empirical (sometimes called "A posteriori" or "Frequentist") ...
• Subjective. ...
• Axiomatic.
What are the different types of probability
distributions?
• There are many different classifications of probability
distributions. Some of them include the normal distribution,
chi square distribution, binomial distribution, and Poisson
distribution.
What are probability models?
• A probability model is a mathematical representation of
a random phenomenon. It is defined by its sample space,
events within the sample space, and probabilities associated
with each event. The sample space S for a probability
model is the set of all possible outcomes.
Who is known as father of probability?
• A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a
mathematical theory of probability by two famous French
mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat.
What are the 3 axioms of probability?
• For any event A, P(A) ≥ 0. In English, that's
“For any event A, the probability of A is
greater or equal to 0”.
• When S is the sample space of an experiment;
i.e., the set of all possible outcomes, P(S) = 1.
• If A and B are mutually exclusive outcomes,
P(A ∪ B ) = P(A) + P(B).
 Conditional Probability
• Conditional probability is a probability of occurring
an event when another event has already happened.
• Let's suppose, we want to calculate the event A when
event B has already occurred, "the probability of A
under the conditions of B", it can be written as:

Where P(A⋀B)= Joint probability of A and B

P(B)= Marginal probability of B.
If the probability of A is given and we need to find the
probability of B, then it will be given as:

It can be explained by using the below Venn diagram,

where B is occurred event, so sample space will be
reduced to set B, and now we can only calculate event A
when event B is already occurred by dividing the
probability of P(A⋀B) by P( B ).
• Conditional probability is
the probability of one event occurring with
some relationship to one or more other events.
For example: Event A is that it is raining
outside, and it has a 0.3 (30%) chance of
raining today. Event B is that you will need to
go outside, and that has a probability of 0.5
(50%).
What is the difference between probability
and conditional probability?
• Their only difference is that the conditional
probability assumes that we already know
something -- that B is true.
How do you calculate conditional
proportions?
• The analog of conditional
proportion is conditional probability: P(A|B)
means “probability that A happens, if we know
that B happens”. The formula is P(A|B) = P(A
and B)/P(B).
Independent Events
• Events can be "Independent", meaning each
event is not affected by any other events.
Example: Tossing a coin.
• Each toss of a coin is a perfect isolated thing.
• What it did in the past will not affect the
current toss.
• The chance is simply 1-in-2, or 50%, just like
ANY toss of the coin.
• So each toss is an Independent Event.
Dependent Events
• But events can also be "dependent" ... which means
they can be affected by previous events.
Example: Marbles in a Bag
• 2 blue and 3 red marbles are in a bag.
• What are the chances of getting a blue marble?
• The chance is 2 in 5
• But after taking one out the chances change!
• So the next time:
• if we got a red marble before, then the chance of a
blue marble next is 2 in 4
• if we got a blue marble before, then the chance of a
blue marble next is 1 in 4
 Bayes Rule
• Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes'
law, or Bayesian reasoning, which determines the
probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.
• In probability theory, it relates the conditional
probability and marginal probabilities of two random
events.
• Bayes' theorem was named after the British
mathematician Thomas Bayes. The Bayesian
inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which
is fundamental to Bayesian statistics.
• It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the
knowledge of P(A|B).
• Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction
of an event by observing new information of the real
world.
• Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by
using Bayes' theorem, we can determine the probability of
cancer more accurately with the help of age.
• Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and
conditional probability of event A with known event B:
• As from product rule we can write:
P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or
Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A:
P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)
Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:

• The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes'

theorem. This equation is basic of most modern AI systems
for probabilistic inference.
• It shows the simple relationship between joint and
conditional probabilities. Here,
• P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we need to
calculate, and it will be read as Probability of hypothesis A
when we have occurred an evidence B.
• P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we consider that
hypothesis is true, then we calculate the probability of
evidence.
• P(A) is called the prior probability, probability of
hypothesis before considering the evidence
• P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an
evidence.
• In the equation (a), in general, we can write P (B) =
P(A)*P(B|Ai), hence the Bayes' rule can be written as:

Where A1, A2, A3,........, An is a set of mutually

exclusive and exhaustive events.
Applying Bayes' Rule:
Bayes' rule allows us to compute the single
term P(B|A) in terms of P(A|B), P(B), and
P(A). This is very useful in cases where we
have a good probability of these three terms
and want to determine the fourth one. Suppose
we want to perceive the effect of some
unknown cause, and want to compute that
cause, then the Bayes' rule becomes:
• Example-1:
Question: what is the probability that a patient has diseases meningitis
with a stiff neck?
Given Data:
• A doctor is aware that disease meningitis causes a patient to have a stiff
neck, and it occurs 80% of the time. He is also aware of some more facts,
which are given as follows:
• The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000.
• The Known probability that a patient has a stiff neck is 2%.
• Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff neck and b be the proposition
that patient has meningitis. , so we can calculate the following as:
• P(a|b) = 0.8
• P(b) = 1/30000
• P(a)= 0.02

Hence, we can assume that 1 patient out of 750 patients has

meningitis disease with a stiff neck.
Example-2:
Question: From a standard deck of playing cards, a single card is
drawn. The probability that the card is king is 4/52, then calculate
posterior probability P(King|Face), which means the drawn face card
is a king card.
Solution:

P(king): probability that the card is King= 4/52= 1/13

P(face): probability that a card is a face card= 3/13
P(Face|King): probability of face card when we assume it
is a king = 1
Putting all values in equation (i) we will get:
Application of Bayes' theorem in Artificial
Intelligence:
• It is used to calculate the next step of the robot
when the already executed step is given.
• Bayes' theorem is helpful in weather
forecasting.
• It can solve the Monty Hall problem.
 Bayesian Belief Network
• Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for
dealing with probabilistic events and to solve a problem
which has uncertainty. We can define a Bayesian network
as:
"A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model
which represents a set of variables and their conditional
dependencies using a directed acyclic graph."
• It is also called a Bayes network, belief network,
decision network, or Bayesian model.
• Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these
networks are built from a probability distribution, and
also use probability theory for prediction and anomaly
detection.
• Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to
represent the relationship between multiple events, we
need a Bayesian network. It can also be used in various
tasks including prediction, anomaly detection,
diagnostics, automated insight, reasoning, time series
prediction, and decision making under uncertainty.
• Bayesian Network can be used for building models from
data and experts opinions, and it consists of two parts:
Directed Acyclic Graph
Table of conditional probabilities.
• The generalized form of Bayesian network that represents
and solve decision problems under uncertain knowledge
is known as an Influence diagram.
A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs
(directed links), where:

•Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable

can be continuous or discrete.
•Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or
conditional probabilities between random variables. These directed
links or arrows connect the pair of nodes in the graph.
These links represent that one node directly influence the other
node, and if there is no directed link that means that nodes are
independent with each other
• In the above diagram, A, B, C, and D are random
variables represented by the nodes of the network graph.
• If we are considering node B, which is connected with
node A by a directed arrow, then node A is called the
parent of Node B.
• Node C is independent of node A.
• The Bayesian network graph does not contain any cyclic
graph. Hence, it is known as a directed acyclic graph or
DAG.
• The Bayesian network has mainly two components:
1. Causal Component
2. Actual numbers
Each node in the Bayesian network has condition
probability distribution P(Xi |Parent(Xi) ), which
determines the effect of the parent on that node.
• Bayesian network is based on Joint probability
distribution and conditional probability. So let's first
understand the joint probability distribution:
Joint probability distribution:
• If we have variables x1, x2, x3,....., xn, then the
probabilities of a different combination of x1, x2, x3.. xn,
are known as Joint probability distribution.
P[x1, x2, x3,....., xn], it can be written as the following
way in terms of the joint probability distribution.
= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2, x3,....., xn]
= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2|x3,....., xn]....P[xn-
1|xn]P[xn].
Explanation of Bayesian Network:
Let's understand the Bayesian network through an example
by creating a directed acyclic graph:
Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home
to detect burglary. The alarm reliably responds at
detecting a burglary but also responds for minor
earthquakes. Harry has two neighbors David and Sophia,
who have taken a responsibility to inform Harry at work
when they hear the alarm. David always calls Harry when
he hears the alarm, but sometimes he got confused with
the phone ringing and calls at that time too. On the other
hand, Sophia likes to listen to high music, so sometimes
she misses to hear the alarm. Here we would like to
compute the probability of Burglary Alarm.
• Problem:
Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded,
but there is neither a burglary, nor an earthquake
occurred, and David and Sophia both called the
Harry.
• Solution:
• The Bayesian network for the above problem is given
below. The network structure is showing that burglary and
earthquake is the parent node of the alarm and directly
affecting the probability of alarm's going off, but David
and Sophia's calls depend on alarm probability.
• The network is representing that our assumptions do not
directly perceive the burglary and also do not notice the
minor earthquake, and they also not confer before calling.
• The conditional distributions for each node are given as
conditional probabilities table or CPT.
• Each row in the CPT must be sum to 1 because all the
entries in the table represent an exhaustive set of cases for
the variable.
• In CPT, a boolean variable with k boolean parents
contains 2K probabilities. Hence, if there are two parents,
then CPT will contain 4 probability values.
• List of all events occurring in this network:
• Burglary (B)
• Earthquake(E)
• Alarm(A)
• David Calls(D)
• Sophia calls(S)
• We can write the events of problem statement in the
form of probability: P[D, S, A, B, E], can rewrite the
above probability statement using joint probability
distribution:
P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]
=P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]
= P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]
= P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]
= P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]
• Let's take the observed probability for the
Burglary and earthquake component:
• P(B= True) = 0.002, which is the probability of
burglary.
• P(B= False)= 0.998, which is the probability of no
burglary.
• P(E= True)= 0.001, which is the probability of a
minor earthquake
• P(E= False)= 0.999, Which is the probability that
an earthquake not occurred.
• We can provide the conditional probabilities as per the
below tables:
• Conditional probability table for Alarm A:
The Conditional probability of Alarm A depends on
Burglar and earthquake:
Conditional probability table for David Calls:
The Conditional probability of David that he will
call depends on the probability of Alarm.
Conditional probability table for Sophia
Calls:
The Conditional probability of Sophia that she calls is
depending on its Parent Node "Alarm”.

From the formula of joint distribution, we can write the problem

statement in the form of probability distribution:
P(S, D, A, ¬B, ¬E) = P (S|A) *P (D|A)*P (A|¬B ^ ¬E) *P (¬B) *P
(¬E).
= 0.75* 0.91* 0.001* 0.998*0.999
= 0.00068045.
Hence, a Bayesian network can answer any query about the domain
by using Joint distribution.
 The semantics of Bayesian Network
• There are two ways to understand the semantics
of the Bayesian network, which is given below:
1. To understand the network as the
representation of the Joint probability
distribution.
It is helpful to understand how to construct the
network.
2. To understand the network as an encoding of
a collection of conditional independence
statements.
It is helpful in designing inference procedure.
 Types Probability Models
• Bayes’ Net
• Temporal Probability Model
• Dynamic Bayes’ Net (DBN)
Special classes of DBN
– Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
– Kalman Filter