Prime Minister Mr.
Narendra Modi, having secured victory in the
election, is now seeking to enhance India's global performance.
There's significant potential for strengthening the Comprehensive
Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Korea and India.
The recently concluded 44-day general election, pivotal in shaping
India's future as it aspires to be among the world's top three economies,
culminated in a hard-fought victory for the National Democratic Alliance
(NDA), spearheaded by incumbent Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi of
the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Prime Minister Modi's triumph marks him
as a "historic leader," securing his third consecutive term, a feat unmatched
since Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first prime minister. Nonetheless, the
election was tinged with disappointment for Modi, falling short of the
sweeping mandate he had sought, making it a bitter contest.
Media reports have suggested that Prime Minister Mr. Modi's
leadership might be at risk due to concerns over the impact of his economic
policies, known as 'Modinomics'. On the day of the vote count, India's Nifty
50 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 6 percent. However,
leading Indian experts in Korea, speaking to the Hankook Ilbo, believe that
while Modi's reelection prospects may have encountered a setback, it is
unlikely to pose a significant obstacle to India's continued rapid growth as
the world's most populous nation.
Unlike China, India remains enigmatic to the general public, shrouded
in mystery. Consequently, both the government and businesses have
struggled to grasp and engage effectively with this aspiring G3 nation.
Addressing this issue, the Hankook Ilbo and its India Research Institute
convened a symposium titled "The Third Modi Government: Spotlight on
Korea-India Relations." Held at the Hankook Ilbo headquarters in central
Seoul on Tuesday afternoon, the event brought together esteemed Indian
experts from ROK and beyond to analyze the forthcoming general
elections' outcomes and offer fresh insights into the collaboration between
India and Korea in Prime Minister Mr. Modi's third term.
Mr. Lee Joon-gyu, Chairman of the India Forum and Former
Ambassador of the ROK to India, joined by Mr. Baek Jwaheum, President
of the Institute for Indian Studies Korea (IISK), Mr. Park Hyun-jae,
Professor of Business Administration at Chonnam National University, Mr.
Cho Choongjae, Head of the Korea Institute for Foreign Economic Policy
(KIEP) Delhi office, Ms. Choi Yoon-jeong, Director of the Center for Foreign
Policy at the Sejong Institute, Mr. Sandeep Mishra, Professor at Jawaharlal
Nehru University's East Asia Center in India, Ms. Lee Ji-eun, Professor of
History at Sejong University, Mr. Kim Dong-kyu, Former Head of KOTRA
Bengaluru Office, and Mr. Kim Eung-ki, Director of the Institute for Indian
Studies Korea (IISK), were all in attendance at the panel.
The event commenced with a keynote video speech by H.E. Mr.
Chang Jae-bok, the Ambassador of the ROK to India. He highlighted,
"President Mr. Yoon Suk Yeol and Prime Minister Mr. Modi held two
summit meetings last year and exchanged congratulatory messages after
the general elections. Prime Minister Modi's third consecutive term offers
an ongoing opportunity to engage in substantive discussions, fostering
concrete achievements and sustaining the momentum for cooperation in
bilateral relations."
India's parliamentary elections were regarded as an "unexpected" as
the result came in the opposite direction, overturning expectations that the
ruling BJP would win a landslide victory. The NDA, the ruling party's
coalition led by the BJP, won 293 seats in 543 districts. The exit polls
showed that the party would win up to 450 seats.
In particular, the BJP, which includes Prime Minister Mr. Modi, was
sluggish. The BJP won only 240 seats on its own, but was 42-63 seats
short of the 2014 (282 seats) and 2019 (303 seats) elections, which were
overwhelmingly won. On the other hand, India's National Development
Union, a political coalition led by the main opposition Indian National
Congress (INC), which continues the tradition of Gandhi and Nehru,
performed better than expected with 232 seats.
Experts at the symposium analyzed the results of the general election
as a judgment on economic growth policies that turned a blind eye to
people's livelihoods. The BJP is a party aimed at establishing a "Hindu
state," and it was Prime Minister Modi who played a decisive role in
popularizing Hindu nationalism, which was criticized for extremism in the
past.
However, the BJP, which once dominated Indian politics, won only 36
seats in the Hindu nationalist state of Uttar Pradesh, giving up 43 seats to
the opposition alliance. The BJP has secured only 17 seats in the central
state of Maharashtra (48 seats) as well as in the traditionally weak South
India.
Professor Ms. Lee Ji-eun said, "The BJP has succeeded in election
engineering through 'patriotic marketing' that uses religion for politics, such
as encouraging a war crisis against Pakistan despite the economic crisis of
the common people," adding, "Hindu nationalism naturally declined when
there was no hope in the issue of high-quality youth unemployment."
Professor Mr. Sandeep Mishra also pointed out, "Prime Minister Modi
should provide important ministerial posts such as finance, diplomacy, and
defense to the political parties that will form a coalition," adding, "The
Indian people showed their resistance to Modi's one-man show."
Japan next year, Germany three years later
However, experts predicted that there would be no significant change
in India's foreign policy and economic policy stance. There may be changes
in internal politics with Hinduism as the front line, but there is no change in
India's status as a "Chinese substitute" considering its geopolitical position.
Mr. Baek Jwaheum, President of the Institute for Indian Studies Korea
(IISK) said, "The welfare policy for the poor will be strengthened as the
influence of regional political parties participating in the NDA will be
strengthened and the opposition coalition can strongly oppose Prime
Minister Modi," but predicted, "The importance of Indian diplomacy in the
Indo-Pacific environment will not decrease further."
India's economic growth is likely to be maintained irrespective of the
outcome of the upcoming general elections. According to the International
Monetary Fund, India's economic growth rate this year is 6.8 percent, far
exceeding that of China (4.6 percent). India is the only G20 country that is
expected to grow around 6 percent to 7 percent next year. At the end of
last year, the country overtook Hong Kong to become the world's fourth
largest stock market capitalization after the U.S., China and Japan.
India's gross domestic product is expected to rise to the fourth place
in the world next year, beating Japan. "India cannot replace China in the
short term, but India is the only alternative to China," Mr. Cho Choongjae,
Head of the KIEP Delhi office of the Korea Institute for Foreign Economic
Policy (KIEP) said. "With the continued push of Modinomics, India is
expected to become the G3 around 2027 (beating Germany)."
Global performance needed by both governments
Analysts say that the situation in which Prime Minister Modi has to
make "global results" to overcome the domestic political situation could
paradoxically be a decisive opportunity for Korea. The basics of India's
foreign policy are to pursue an inclusive cooperative relationship while
thinking of China as a threat, with pro-Western policies such as the U.S. as
the priority. Korea has many points to target.
Given that both ROK and India have shifted their domestic political
weight toward the opposition, some analysts say that the two leaders are
likely to have a similar interest in achieving diplomatic results. On
strengthening bilateral cooperation, Ms. Choi Yoon-jeong, Director of the
Center for Foreign Policy at the Sejong Institute said, "The BJP has
pursued 'muscle diplomacy' that values relations with powerful countries
such as the United States and combines hard power such as economy and
military power," adding, "It is highly likely to be a 'practical pursuit type' that
emphasizes the strategic autonomy of foreign policy according to the
results of the general elections, but reveals differences from China and
minimizes exclusivity."
Some argued that a golden opportunity has come for the revision of
the Korea-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA), which has
been sluggish so far. CEPA is a de facto free trade agreement (FTA)
signed by Korea and India in 2010, which was made separately in
consideration of poor preconceived notions about the terms of the FTA
within India. Until now, the Korean government has been pushing to
improve CEPA, including easing standards of origin, in order for domestic
companies to enter the Indian market, but it has been stalled by India's
lukewarm negotiation attitude. Mr. Kim Eung-ki, Director of the Institute for
Indian Studies Korea (IISK), said, "At the beginning of the government's
launch, it may be possible to quickly conclude pending issues such as the
CEPA improvement agreement. We should also make concessions and
prepare practical negotiations to make aggressive concessions."
As India is likely to provide favorable incentives to partner countries
to emerge as a global production base to replace China, it was also
suggested that the Korean government should actively discuss ways to
cooperate in terms of economic security, including key minerals, beyond
attracting investment and technological cooperation. Some suggested
promoting strategic human exchanges with India, which produces young
and excellent labor. Professor Mr. Park Hyun-jae said, "Korea is suffering
from low productivity problems due to high labor costs due to low birth rates
and concentration of medical schools. We need to improve the visa system
so that small and medium-sized companies can actively enter India and
excellent Indian talents can work for domestic companies."
As the central government of India has diminished in power,
suggestions have arisen advocating for the active cultivation of individual
cooperative relationships, including with local governments and opposition
parties. It is proposed that Korean companies should engage in mutual
agreements with key state governments and institutions where they
operate, initiating collaborative projects. Professor Mishra pointed out, "The
broadening scope of India's economic and foreign policy decisions
suggests an increased potential for negotiations with Korea." He further
emphasized, "Building upon the trust we have established thus far, bilateral
exchanges are poised to become more dynamic."
****
Source: Hankook Ilbo:
https://m.hankookilbo.com/News/Read/A2024060910300005176?did=kk
