LBOMGTS Presentation
LBOMGTS Presentation
DATA SET
Income (Y) Marketing Expediture (X1)
1 50000 7000
2 55000 7500
3 52000 7200
4 60000 8000
5 63000 8200
6 66000 8500
7 64000 8300
8 68000 8700
9 70000 8800
10 73000 9000
FIRST STAGE
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995993659036028
R Square 0.992003368839976
Adjusted R Square 0.989718617079969
Standard Error 69.727697117392
Observations 10
Coefficients
Intercept 2452.52466627975
Advertising Spend (Z) 0.0235055136389997
Firm Size (W) 45.0957632037145
SECOND STAGE
Income (Y)
1 50000
2 55000
3 52000
4 60000
5 63000
6 66000
7 64000
8 68000
9 70000
10 73000
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999448478906366
R Square 0.998897261988249
Adjusted R Square 0.998582193984892
Standard Error 291.367591719905
Observations 10
ANOVA
df
Regression 2
Residual 7
Total 9
Coefficients
Intercept -11079.7329143755
Marketing Expediture (X1) 3.77847604084839
Firm Size (W) 343.283582089552
uld be endogenous due to its correlation with other unobserved variables, such as market conditions.
very strong linear relationship between the observed and predicted values of dependent variables
approximately 99.2% variability in income can be explained by the model (Advertising and Firm)
very high
measures the ave distance that the observed fall from the regression line
number of data points
SS MS F Significance F
538305734.485467 269152867.242734 3170.41797752809 4.453E-11
594265.514532601 84895.0735046573
538900000
Upper 95%
Upper 95%
FIRST STAGE
Models' Explanatory
The model explains a very high proportion of the variance in Income, as indicated by the R Square
means that 99.2% of the variability in Income is explained by the Advertising Spend and Firm Size
The adjusted R Square (0.990) supports this high explanatory power even after adjusting for the n
Overall Significance of the Model
Advertising Spend (Z): The coefficient for Advertising Spend is 0.0235, but its p-value is 0.978, whi
the conventional significance level of 0.05. This suggests that Advertising Spend is not a significant
this model. The confidence interval also spans zero (-1.972 to 2.019), further indicating non
Significance of Individual Predictors
Advertising Spend (Z): The coefficient for Advertising Spend is 0.0235, but its p-value is 0.978, whi
the conventional significance level of 0.05. This suggests that Advertising Spend is not a significant
this model. The confidence interval also spans zero (-1.972 to 2.019), further indicating non
Firm Size (W): The coefficient for Firm Size is 45.10, with a p-value of 0.085. This p-value is slig
threshold but indicates marginal significance at the 10% level. This suggests that Firm Size has a n
strongly significant, positive effect on Income. For each additional unit increase in Firm Size, In
approximately 45.10 units, holding Advertising Spend constant.
Practical Implications
The high explanatory power of the model suggests that the included variables (Advertising Spend
relevant for explaining Income. However, the non-significance of Advertising Spend implies that oth
in this model might be driving Income. Therefore, relying solely on Advertising Spend to predict or
not be effective.
Firm Size, showing some significance, might be a more reliable indicator for predicting Income. La
higher income, which could be due to economies of scale, better market reach, or more diversifie
Other Considerations
Given that Advertising Spend is not a significant predictor, it might be beneficial to investigate othe
variables that could influence Income. Additionally, checking for multicollinearity, adding interactio
modeling techniques might improve the model.
Considering the marginal significance of Firm Size, further data collection and analysis with a larger
clarify its role and potentially strengthen its significance in predicting Income
SECOND STAGE
Models' Explanatory
R Square (0.999) and Adjusted R Square (0.999) indicate that approximately 99.89% of the variab
variable (likely Income) can be explained by the model. This suggests that Marketing Expenditure an
effective predictors of the dependent variable in this dataset.
Overall Significance of the Model
F-statistic (3170.42) and Significance F (4.45E-11) demonstrate that the overall model is highly sign
the combination of predictors (Marketing Expenditure and Firm Size) significantly explains the varia
variable.
Significance of Individual Predictors
The negative intercept is statistically significant (p-value: 0.027). It implies that when both Marketin
Size are zero, the dependent variable would be -11079.73. This might not be practically meaningf
significant.
Statistically significant (p-value: 0.048). For each additional unit of Marketing Expenditure, the d
expected to increase by 3.78 units, holding Firm Size constant.
Statistically significant (p-value: 0.002). For each additional unit of Firm Size, the dependent variable
by 343.28 units, holding Marketing Expenditure constant.
Practical Implications
Model Validity: The extremely high R Square and F-statistic values indicate that the model is robu
chosen (Marketing Expenditure and Firm Size) are highly relevant to predicting the depend
Effect of Marketing Expenditure: Marketing Expenditure has a positive and statistically significant im
variable. However, its effect is relatively smaller compared to Firm Size.
Effect of Firm Size: Firm Size has a much larger positive impact on the dependent variable com
Expenditure. This suggests that larger firms tend to have higher values for the dependent variable (
could be due to economies of scale, better market reach, or other advantages associated with
Other Considerations
Data Size and Robustness: Given the small sample size (10 observations), the results should be inte
More data would help validate these findings and ensure they are not due to overfi
Additional Variables: Considering other potential variables that might influence the dependent var
more comprehensive model and potentially increase its explanatory power furth
SUMMARY
The regression analysis highlights that the model has a very high explanatory power overall, but the individual p
Advertising Spend is not statistically significant, while Firm Size shows marginal significance. This suggests t
other than Advertising Spend might be more crucial for predicting Income, and additional variables should be co
improve the model's robustness and predictive capability.
The regression analysis indicates that both Marketing Expenditure and Firm Size are significant predictors of th
variable, with Firm Size having a much larger impact. The model has an extremely high explanatory power an
significance, suggesting it is robust and the chosen predictors are relevant. However, given the small sample si
validation with more data is recommended.
ome, as indicated by the R Square value of 0.992. This
Advertising Spend and Firm Size variables in the model.
wer even after adjusting for the number of predictors.
FIRST STAGE
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995993659036028
R Square 0.992003368839976
Adjusted R Square 0.989718617079969
Standard Error 69.727697117392
Observations 10
ANOVA
df SS
Regression 2 4221966.33778294
Residual 7 34033.6622170633
Total 9 4256000
SECOND STAGE
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999448478906366
R Square 0.998897261988249
Adjusted R Square 0.998582193984892
Standard Error 291.367591719905
Observations 10
ANOVA
df SS
Regression 2 538305734.485467
Residual 7 594265.514532601
Total 9 538900000
MS F Significance F
2110983.16889147 434.184311050478 4.573E-08
4861.95174529475
SECOND STAGE
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.1148128677
R Square 0.0131819946
Adjusted R Square -0.0466251573
Standard Error 0.7449009762
Observations 36
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 2 0.2445992328 0.1222996164
Residual 33 18.310956323 0.5548774643
Total 35 18.555555556
Other Considerations
Sample Size: The relatively small sample size (36 observations) may limit the ability to detect sig
Multicollinearity: Check for multicollinearity between Activity and Availability, which could infl
PREDICTED VALUE
the predicted value of 0.196219598 means that, given the specific values of the independent variab
variable in the second stage) would be approximately 0.1962.
This predicted value will be used in the second stage of the 2SLS regression to replace the endoge
endogenous variable on the dependent variable in the second stage.
SECOND STAGE
Models' Explanatory
The model explains only 1.32% of the variation in the dependent variable, which is very low. This
Overall Significance of the Model
The model is not statistically significant overall (p-value = 0.8034), suggesting that the independen
Significance of Individual Predictors
Familiarity (X1): The coefficient is -0.0061 with a p-value of 0.9623, indicating that it is not a sig
Availability (W): The coefficient is 0.0994 with a p-value of 0.5133, indicating that it is also not a
Practical Implications
Given the low explanatory power and lack of significant predictors, this model is not useful for pre
Other Considerations
Sample Size: The relatively small sample size (36 observations) may limit the ability to detect sig
Multicollinearity: Check for multicollinearity between Familiarity and Availability, which could i
SUMMARY
First Stage
The first-stage regression model does not effectively predict the dependent variable. The low R-sq
Availability) are not strong predictors.
Second Stage
The second-stage regression analysis indicates that the model, which includes Familiarity and Ava
statistically significant overall (p-value = 0.8034). Neither Familiarity nor Availability significantl
Therefore, this model is not useful for prediction, suggesting that other variables not included in th
specification is recommended.
riable (x1), which is very low. This indicates that Activity and Availability are not good predictors of x1.
suggesting that the independent variables collectively do not explain the variability in the dependent variable.
this model is not useful for predicting the dependent variable. It suggests that other variables not included in this model might be better pre
alues of the independent variables (Activity and Availability), the model predicts that the dependent variable (e.g., an instrumental variable
gression to replace the endogenous variable with its predicted value from the first stage, thus allowing for a more accurate estimation of the
riable, which is very low. This indicates that Familiarity and Availability are not good predictors of the dependent variable.
suggesting that the independent variables collectively do not explain the variability in the dependent variable.
this model is not useful for predicting the dependent variable. It suggests that other variables not included in this model might be better pre
endent variable. The low R-squared value, lack of significant predictors, and non-significant overall model suggest that the chosen instrum
h includes Familiarity and Availability as predictors, is not effective. The model explains only 1.32% of the variability in the dependent var
ty nor Availability significantly predicts the dependent variable, as evidenced by their high p-values and wide confidence intervals that incl
her variables not included in the model might be better predictors. Further research with different predictors, a larger sample size, or an imp
model might be better predictors.
SECOND STAGE