Assignment 2 - Solutions

Scribed by: Avinash Kumar

1. There are n · (n − 1) · (n − 2) . . . · 1 = n! ways in which the n people can sit in the row. Assume
that the two people X and Y are one entity and are always together. X and Y can arrange
among themselves in two was XY and Y X. Also, now the (n − 1) people (considering XY as
on entity) can seat in (n − 1)! ways. Thus the number of favorable outcomes, in which X and
Y are seating together is 2 · (n − 1)!. Then the probability that the two particular people X
2 · (n − 1)! 2
and Y will be seated next to each other is P = = .
n! n
2. Let the player be named P1 , P2 , P3 and P4 . The number
of ways of choosing the positions in
the deck that will be occupied by the four aces is 52 4 . Since player P1 will receive 13 cards,
the number of ways of choosing the
positions in the deck for the four aces such that all of them
will be received by player P1 is 134 . Similarly, since player P2 will receive 13 other cards, the
number of ways
of choosing the positions for the four aces so that all of them will be received
player B is 13 4 . A similar result holds for each of the other players. Therefore, the total
number of ways of choosing the positions in the deck for the aces so that all
of52them will be
received by the same player is 4 13 13



4 . Thus, the final probability is P = 4 4 / 4

3. The sample space consists of all subsets of 10 out of 24 balls in the box. There are 24


10 such
subsets. The number of subsets
that contain the two red balls is the22number

24
of 10×9
subsets of size
8 out of the other 22 balls, 22
8 , so the required probability is P = 8 / 10 = 24×23 = 0.1630

4. We assume that there are only 365 days in a year and that all birthdays are equally probable,
assumptions which are not quite met in reality. The first of the n people has of course some
birthday with probability 365/365 = 1. Then, if the second is to have a different birthday, it
must occur on one of the other 364 days. Therefore, the probability that the second person has
a birthday different from the first is 364/365. Similarly the probability that the third person
has a birthday different from the first two is 363/365. Finally, the probability that the nth
person has a birthday different from the others is (365 − n + 1)/365. We therefore have

365 364 365 − n + 1

P (all n birthdays different) = . .....
365 365   365 
  
1 2 (n − 1)
= 1− 1− ....... 1 −
365 365 365

5. Let A1 be the event that the design is faulty and A2 be the event that the design is not faulty.
Then A1 ∩ A2 = φ and A1 ∪ A2 = S. Let B be the event of the bridge collapsing. Then we
are given the following

P (A1 ) = 0.6, P (A2 ) = 0.4 , P (B|A1 ) = 0.9, P (B|A2 ) = 0.2

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 We are asked to compute the probability of B. From the total probability law,

P (B) = P (B|A1 )P (A1 ) + P (B|A2 )P (A2 ) = 0.9 · 0.6 + 0.2 · 0.4 = 0.62

Thus, there is a 62% chance of the over bridge designed by Mr Narayanan collapsing.

6
6. P (A) = 1 − P (Ac ) = 1 − 56 · 65 · 56 · 56 · 65 · 56 = 1 − 65 ≈ 0.6651
P (B) = 1−P (B c ) = 1−(probability that no six appears)-(probability that one six appears) =
 12  11 !
5 1 5
1− − · ≈ 0.5973
6 6 6
2  
c
X 18 n 18−n
P (C) = 1 − P (C ) = 1 − (1/6) (5/6) ≈ 0.5972
n=0
n

. Thus P (A) > P (B) > P (C).

7. (i) If card A has been selected. each of the other four cards is equally likely to be the other
selected card. Since three of four cards are red, the required probability is 34 .
(ii) Let R1 denote the event that the first selected card is red, R2 denote the event that the
second selected card is red. Then, P (R1 ) = 45 and P (R2 |R1 ) = 34 . Thus, P (R1 ∩ R2 ) =
P (R1 )P (R2 |R1 ) = 45 · 34 = 35 .
8. Let us define the following events:
E1 - Marble initially in the bag is green, E2 - Marble initially in the bag is blue, E3 - (after one
green marble is put in the bag) Both the marbles are green, E4 -(after one green marble is put
in the bag) One of the marbles in the bag is green and one is blue
Then P (E1 ) = P (E2 ) = 0.5, P (E3 ) = 0.5 and P (E4 ) = 0.5. Let G be the event that the
marble taken out is green. Then we need to find P (E3 |G). Noting that the events E3 and E4
are disjoint and E3 ∪ E4 = S, using Bayes rule:

P (G|E3 )P (E3 ) 1 · 0.5

P (E3 |G) = = = 0.6667
P (G|E3 )P (E3 ) + P (G|E4 )P (E4 ) 1 · 0.5 + 0.5 · 0.5

9. The sample space consists of the the points

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

Let A be the event that the number drawn is at-least 5 and B be the event that the number
is 10, then

A = {5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
B = {10}
3 1
Clearly P (A) = 5 and P (B) = 10 . We need to find P (B|A). Using definition of conditional
probability:

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
1
10 1
= 3 =
5
6

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10. Let Ai be the event that no card of the ith suit appears. The we want to calculate P (∪4i=1 )Ai
Using inclusion-exclusion formula:

P (∪4i=1 )Ai = P (A1 ) + ....P (A4 ) − P (A1 ∩ A2 ) − ..... − P (A3 ∩ A4 ) + P (A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) + .....P (A4 ∩ A5 ∩ A6 )
− P (A1 ∩ ..... ∩ A4 )
4  
X 4
= (−1)k+1 P (A1 ∩ .... ∩ Ak )
k
k=1
4     
X
k+1 4 52 − 13k 52
= (−1) /
k 13 13
k=1