Module 3 - Section 1

Introduction to Probability

By: Sharandeep Singh Pandher

Random Phenomena:

• Many things in our world depend on randomness:

(a) What is the probability that the train will be on time today?
(b) Probability of getting HEAD at least once on tossing a coin twice?
(c) What is the chance of getting an even number greater than or equal to 4 in a dice roll?
(d) What is the chance to roll a 6 with a "fair" die?

• Even if those events occur randomly(again and again), there is an underlying pattern in the occurrence of these
events. This is the basis of Probability Theory.

Definition: A phenomenon is random if we know what outcomes could happen, but we don’t know which particular
outcome did or will happen i.e.

(a) Individual outcomes are unpredictable

(b) With a large number of observations, predictable patterns occur

• Examples of random phenomena are:

(a) Toss a coin three times.
(b) Roll a die.
(c) Number of customers coming into the bank each day.
Definition:

• In general, each occasion upon which we observe a random phenomenon is called a trial.
• At each trial, we note the value of the random phenomenon and call it an outcome.
• The collection of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.

Example: (a) trial: roll a die

Sample space: S={1,2,3,4,5,6}.
(b) trial: Toss a coin
Sample space: S={H,T}
(c) trial: Toss a coin three times
Sample space: S={HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, HTT, THT, TTT}

• When we combine outcomes, the resulting combination is an event.

(a) An event is a subset of the sample space (or is the collection of one or more of the outcomes of an experiment)
(b) Events are usually denoted by letters from the beginning of the alphabet, such as A and B, or by a letter or string of
letters that describe the event.

Example: Let A be the event of rolling an even number i.e. A ={2,4,6}

Let B be the event of tossing a head i.e. B={H}
Let C be the event of rolling a number less than four i.e. C ={1,2,3}
Venn Diagram:
• A Venn diagram is a picture that depicts all the possible outcomes of an experiment.
• The outer box represents the sample space, which contains all of the outcomes, and the appropriate events are
circled and labeled.

Example: Draw a Venn Diagram for the dice example:

1 3 5
2 4 6

Tree diagram:

• Tree diagram is an ideal way of visualizing sample spaces with a small number of outcomes.
• Each outcome on the tree diagram is represented by a branch of the tree.
• As the number of trials or the number of possible outcomes on each trial increase, the tree diagram becomes
impractical.
 Example: Three coin tosses. S={HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, HTT, THT, TTT}

• If we toss 3 coins, what is the sample space? Draw a tree diagram to illustrate it.

Note: 2 × 2 × 2 = 8 possible outcomes when tossing three coins

Note: Let B be the event of getting no tails when tossing three coins B={HHH}
Definition:

• The probability of any outcome (or event) of a random phenomenon is the proportion of times the outcome would
occur in a very long series of repetitions. (Probability is a measure of the likelihood or chance of a future event)

• This definition is based on the Law of Large Numbers (LLN): the long-run relative frequency of repeated independent
events gets closer and closer to a single value.

• The LLN says nothing about short-run behavior.

• Relative frequencies even out only in the long run, and this long run is really long (infinitely long, in fact).
Equally likely (fair or unbiased) Probability:

• It’s equally likely to get any one of six outcomes from the roll of a fair die

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6

Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

Example: Toss a coin three times

S={HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, HTT, THT, TTT}

Assuming the coin is fair, the outcomes are equally likely

P(HHH)=P(HHT)=P(HTH)=P(THH)=P(TTH)=P(HTT)=P(THT)=P(TTT)= 1/8

Note: However, keep in mind that events are not always equally likely.
Probability of an Event:
• In general, the probability of an event 𝐴 is

𝑃 𝐴 = sum of the probabilities of the individual outcomes contained in 𝐴.

• With equally likely outcomes the probability of an event 𝐴 is

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Example:
• Let A be the event of obtaining an exactly “HHH” in three tosses of an unbiased coin.

𝑃 𝐴 =

• Let A be the event of obtaining a “5” in one roll of an unbiased die.

𝑃 𝐴 =
• Let A be the event of obtaining no ‘H’ in one toss of an unbiased coin.

𝑃 𝐴 =
Example: Find the probability of A

• Let A be the event of obtaining exactly two heads in three tosses of an unbiased coin.

A= {HHT, THH, HTH}

𝑃 𝐴 =
or
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐻𝐻𝑇 + 𝑃 𝑇𝐻𝐻 + 𝑃 𝐻𝑇𝐻 = + + =

• Let A be the event of obtaining no tails in three tosses of an unbiased coin.

A={HHH}

𝑃 𝐴 =
Formal Probability Rules or Axioms of Probability:
• P(S)=1 where S is the sample space.

• 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1 for any event A.

• P 𝐴 = 0, if the event A never occurs.

Example:
(a) For the toss of 1 coin: P(S) = P({H, T}) = 1 as P(H)+P(T)=1/2 +1/2=1

(b) For the toss of 2 coin: P(S) = P({HH,H T,TH,TT}) = 1 as P(HH)+P(HT)+P(TH)+P(TT)=1/4+1/4+1/4+1/4=1

(C) For the toss of 3 coin: P(S) = P({HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, HTT, THT, TTT}) = 1

(d) P(roll with a regular die a number >7) =0

• Example: Based on the following table, find the probability for x=4.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 0.11 0.12 0.19 0.28 ? 0.09 0.06

we know P(S)=1
P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=1
0.11+0.12+0.19+0.28+P(4)+0.09+0.06=1
P(4)=1-0.85
P(4)=0.15
 Complement Rule:

• Complement of an event 𝐴 (denoted by 𝐴 ) 𝑨𝒄

𝑨s
• Consists of all outcomes in the sample space that are not in 𝐴.

• 𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐴 =1

• 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

Example: Use the complement rule to find the probability of having at least two heads in three tosses of an
unbiased coin.
4 1
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, = =
8 2
or

P 𝐴 =1−𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃(at most one heads in three tosses)

= 1 − 𝑃({ TTH, HTT, THT, TTT})
=1−
=1− =
 Definition:

• If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are disjoint events (or mutually exclusive events), then they have no outcomes in common
(i.e. when one event occurs, the other cannot occur, and vice versa.)

𝑨 𝑩

Example:
Let A be the event of obtaining exactly one head in three tosses of an unbiased coin.
Let B be the event of obtaining exactly three tails in three tosses of an unbiased coin.
Let C be the event of obtaining at least two heads in three tosses of an unbiased coin
Let D be the event of obtaining exactly three heads in three tosses of an unbiased coin.

• Which of the events (A, B, C, D) are disjoint?

A={TTH, HTT, THT}, B={TTT}, C={HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}, D={HHH}

(i) A and B are disjoint. (ii) A and C are disjoint. (iii) A and D are disjoint

(iv) B and C are disjoint. (v) B and D are disjoint (vi) C and D are not disjoint
Notations:

• Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be two events:

(a) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵

(b) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵

• The intersection of events 𝐴 and 𝐵, denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵, consists of outcomes that are in both A and B.

• The union of events 𝐴 and 𝐵, denoted by 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, is the event that either A or B or both occur.

General Addition Rule:

• Probability of the Union of 2 Events P 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

• Addition Rule for Disjoint Events: P 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵

Note: (a) The subtraction of 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) is necessary because this area is counted twice by the addition of 𝑃 𝐴 and
𝑃 𝐵 , once in 𝑃 𝐴 and once in 𝑃 𝐵 .

(b) The probability of the intersection of disjoint events is 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0

Example: Random experiment can result in one of the outcomes {a, b, c, d} with probability 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.1
respectively. Let 𝐴 denote the event { a, b}, 𝐵 the event { b, c, d}, and 𝐶 is the event {d}.
Find 𝑃 𝐴 , 𝑃 𝐵 , 𝑃 𝐶 , 𝑃 𝐴 , 𝑃 𝐵 , 𝑃 𝐶 , 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 , 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 , and 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 .
Solution:
(a) 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.4

(b) 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.1 = 0.9

(c) 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.1

(d) 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 0.4 = 0.6

(e) 𝑃 𝐵 = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1

(f) 𝑃 𝐶 = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9

(g) 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑏 = 0.3
(h) 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = 0
(i) 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.4 + 0.9 − 0.3 = 1.0
Example: Suppose that 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events with probabilities𝑃 𝐴 = 1/4 and 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐵 ).
Given that 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = , Find 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
Solution:
𝑃 𝐵 =𝑃 𝐵 =1−P B
2𝑃 𝐵 = 1
𝑃 𝐵 =
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = + − = 0.625

Example: A group of 68 school children completed a survey asking about their television preferences. The results show that
43 of the children watch channel 𝐴, 26 watch channel 𝐵, and 12 watch both channels. If a child is selected at random from
the group, what is the probability that they watch at least one of the two channels?
Solution:
𝑃 𝐴 = , 𝑃 𝐵 = ,𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = + − =
How to find P(A and B)?

• Sometimes 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 is not given in a question, and the rule for calculating 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 depends on the idea of
independent and dependent events.

• Multiplication Rule:

(a) Probability of the Intersection of Dependent Events

P(A and B) = P(A|B) x P(B)

(b) Probability of the Intersection of Independent Events

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

Note: disjoint ≠ independent

Independence of Two Events:

• Two events are considered independent when the occurrence of one of the events has no impact on the probability for
the second event to occur.

• NOTE: it doesn’t mean they are disjoint!

• Disjoint events cannot be independent! Well, why not?

(a) Since we know that disjoint events have no outcomes in common, knowing that one occurred means
the other didn’t.

(b) Thus, the probability of the second occurring changed based on our knowledge that the first occurred.

(c) It follows, then, that the two events are not independent.

• A common error is to treat disjoint events as if they were independent, and apply the Multiplication Rule for
independent events—don’t make that mistake.
Example:

• Toss a fair coin twice. What is the probability to toss two heads?

• Recall: P({HH}) = ¼

• Define:

A: head on the first toss

B: head on the second toss

and find P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) = ½ * ½ = ¼

A and B are independent events.

Example: What is the probability to get the outcome (HTH) with a biased coin which has a 0.2 chance to toss a head?
P({HTH})=P(H)*P(T)*P(H)=0.2*0.8*0.2=0.032
Example: In Tim Hortons, 80% of the employees take a bonus every year. suppose 3 employees are randomly
selected from all employees of Tim Horton,

(a) what is the probability that at least one of three employees takes a bonus every year?
(Note that each employees take a bonus is independently)

Given that 80% of the employees take a bonus every year, the probability that a randomly selected employee takes
a bonus is p=0.80.
The probability that a randomly selected employee does not take a bonus is = 1-p=1-0.80=0.20
𝑃(at least one of three employees takes a bonus every year)= =1-P(None of three)=1 − 1 − 𝑝 = 1 −
1 − 0.80 = 1 − 0.20 = 1 − 0.008 = 0.992

Example: What is the probability of getting the outcome {TTTT} with a biased coin which has a 0.8 chance to toss a
head (Note that each toss is independent)?
P(H)=0.80, P(T)=1-0.80=0.20
P(TTTT)=P(T)P(T)P(T)P(T)=0.20 = 0.0016
Example: Two Dice Rolling Game.

• When you roll two dice, what is the probability to roll two 4’s?
P(roll two 4’s)=

𝑃 4 ∩4 =𝑃 4 𝑃 4 = . =

• There are 36 possible outcomes:

• When you roll two dice, what is the probability to roll a ‘2’ and a ‘3’?

P((2 and 3), (3 and 2)) = P(2 and 3) + P(3 and 2)

= P(2)*P(3) + P(3)*P(2)
= (1/6)*(1/6) + (1/6)*(1/6) = 2/36 = 1/18

• Probability of getting six as a product = [(1,6), (2,3), (3,2), (6,1)]=4

= 4/36=1/9
• Probability of getting sum divisible by 5 = [(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1), (4,6), (5,5), (6,4)]=7
= 7/36
Example: Continued
• What is the chance of rolling at least one ‘6’ with 2 fair dice?

Method 1: 11/36.

Method 2:
let 𝐴 to be the event that the first die is ‘6’, and

let 𝐵 to be the event that the second die is ‘6’.

Using the Probability of the Union Rule, we have:

1 1 1 11
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = + − =
6 6 36 36
Method 3:
Let 𝐴 to be the event to have at least one ‘6’

Let 𝐴 to be the event to have no ‘6’

Using the complement rule, we have: 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑛𝑜 6 ∩ no 6

= 1 − P no 6 P no 6 = 1 − =1− =
Example:
• The odds against Manager X settling the wage dispute with the workers are 8:6 and odds in favor of Manager Y
settling the same dispute are 14:16.

(a) What is the chance that neither settles the dispute, if they both try, independently of each other?

Let 𝐴 be the event that Manager X will settle the dispute

Let 𝐵 be the event that Manager Y will settle the dispute

8 4 8 6 3
𝑃(𝐴) = = , 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − = =
8+6 7 14 14 7
14 7 7 8
𝑃 𝐵 = = , 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − =
14 + 16 15 15 15

The required probability that neither settles the dispute is given by 𝑃 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴̅ 𝑃(𝐵 ) = =

Note: Since 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent => 𝐴̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 are also independent .
Conditional Probability:

• To understand the concept of independent and dependent events even further, we will introduce the idea of
conditional probability.

Definition:

• If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are events with 𝑃 𝐵 > 0 , the conditional probability of 𝑨 given 𝑩 is defined by
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)

• Interpretation of the conditional probability 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 :

• The probability of having 𝐴, given that you know the event 𝐵 occurred.

Example: Toss a fair coin twice.

Let 𝐴 : head on second toss
𝐵: head on first toss
P(𝐴⁄𝐵) = and P(𝐴⁄𝐵 ) = .
 Example:
• Two dies are thrown simultaneously, and the sum of the numbers obtained is found to be 7. What is the
probability that the number 3 has appeared at least once?

𝑆 consists of 6 × 6, i.e. 36 events.

Event 𝐴 indicates the combination in which 3 has appeared at least once.
Event 𝐵 indicates the combination of the numbers which sum up to 7.
𝐴 = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (1, 3), (2, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3)}

𝐵 = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}

𝑃 𝐴 = , 𝑃 𝐵 =
𝐴∩𝐵 =2, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =

Applying the conditional probability formula we get,

2
36
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 1
𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 = = 6 =
𝑃(𝐵) 36 3
Example: A random sample of 110 hikers and the areas of hiking they prefer.
Gender The Coastline Near Lakes and On Mountain Total
Streams Peaks
Male 20 10 50
Female 15 60
Total 30
Complete the above table
Gender The Coastline Near Lakes and On Mountain Total
Streams Peaks
Male 20 10 20 50
Female 25 20 15 60
Total 45 30 35 110
Are the events "being female" and "preferring the coastline" independent events?
Let F = being female and let C = preferring the coastline. 𝑃 𝐹 ∩ 𝐶 = = 0.2272 ,
60 45
𝑃 𝐹 𝑃 𝐶 = = 0.2231
110 110
𝑃 𝐹 ∩ 𝐶 ≠ P F P(C) so the events F and C are not independent.
• Find the probability that a person is male given that the person prefers hiking near lakes and streams.
Let M = being male, and let L = preferring hiking near lakes and streams.

(a) What word tells you this is conditional?

The word 'given' tells you that this is a conditional.

(b) Fill in the blanks and calculate the probability: P(__|___) = ___.

∩
𝑃 𝑀⁄𝐿 = = = 1/3

.
The General Multiplication Rule:

• Rearranging the equation in the definition for conditional probability, we get the General Multiplication Rule:

∩
• 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 𝑎𝑠 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 =

∩
• 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃 𝐵 ⁄𝐴 𝑎𝑠 𝑃 𝐵 ⁄𝐴 =

Note: (a) 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 ≠ 𝑃 𝐴 ; 𝑃 𝐵 ⁄𝐴 ≠ 𝑃 𝐵 for dependent events.

(b) 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ; 𝑃 𝐵 ⁄𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 for independent events.

(c) 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃(𝐵) for independent events only

Example: A bowl contains seven balls, three black and four blue

• Randomly select two balls without replacement, and define

𝐴: the second ball is black.
𝐵: the first ball is blue.
𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 = , and 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 =

So 𝐴 and 𝐵 are dependent.

• Randomly select two balls with replacements, and define

A: the second ball is black.
B: the first ball is blue.
𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 = , and 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 =

So 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent

Example:
• In a special city’s Lottery, 3 numbers are randomly sampled without replacement from the integers 1 to 10. To win,
all 3 numbers on the lotto ticket must match.
If you buy a lotto ticket, how likely are you going to win? In other words, what is the probability that it is the winning
ticket?
• Let A = you have the same first number
• B = you have the same second number
• C = you have the same third number

NOTE: A, B, and C are not independent events. You need A before you can have B, you need both A and B before you
can have C,
𝑃 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑙 3 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 ⁄𝐴 𝑃 𝐶 ⁄𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
= = 0.0083333

• what is the probability that the ticket will match at least one of the 3 numbers?
Let A = at least one of 3 numbers
𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 3 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
= 1 − 𝑃 𝑛𝑜 1 𝑛𝑜 2 𝑛𝑜 3
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 1 )P(𝑛𝑜 2 /𝑛𝑜 1 ) 𝑃 𝑛𝑜 3 ⁄𝑛𝑜 1 𝑛𝑜𝑟 2
=1− = 0.708333.
Example: Suppose 70% of employees at Company ABC attend regular professional development workshops.
Of these employees who attend workshops, 40% actively participate in networking events.
Among the employees at Company ABC who do not attend regular professional development workshops, 15% do
not engage in any form of professional networking.
(a)What is the probability that a randomly selected employee at Company ABC participates in networking events
during professional development workshops?“
Let's denote the following events:
𝐴: Employee attends regular professional development workshops.
𝐴:̅ Employee does not attend regular professional development workshops.
𝑁: Employee participates in networking events during professional development workshops.
̅
P 𝐴 = 0.70, P(N/A)=0.40, P(𝐴)=0.30, ̅
P(N/ 𝐴)=0.15
P(N)= P(N/A) P(A)+ P(N/ 𝐴)̅ P(𝐴)= ̅ (0.40)(0.70)+(0.15)(0.30)=0.325

(b) "What is the probability that a randomly selected employee at Company ABC attends professional
development workshops and actively engages in networking events during the sessions?“
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝑁)=P(A)P(N/A)=(0.70)(0.40)=0.28
(c) "From Company ABC, if an employee who did not participate in networking events during professional
development workshops is randomly selected, what is the probability that this employee attended
professional development workshops?“
( /A)P(A) (0.60)(0.70)
P(A/𝑁)= = =0.622
( ) .
Where P(𝑁)= P(𝑁 /A) P(A)+ P(𝑁 / 𝐴)̅ P(𝐴)=
̅ (0.60)(0.70)+(0.85)(0.30)=0.675
̅ ̅
P(𝑁 / 𝐴)=1- P(N/ 𝐴) =1-0.15=0.85

(d) "From Company ABC, if an employee who attended professional development workshops is randomly
selected, what is the probability that this employee participated in networking events during the
workshops?“

(N∩A) 0.28
P(N/A)= = =0.40
( ) .

Where 𝑃 𝑁 ∩ 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝑁/A)P(A)=(0.40)(0.70)=0.28
Example:
• Let A and B are two events in sample space S with 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 = 0.60 and 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 = 0.030, 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.70. Find
𝑃 𝐵 ⁄𝐴 .
∩
We know that 𝑃 𝐵⁄𝐴 =
𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴⁄𝐵 = 0.70 × 0.60 = 0.42
𝑃 𝐴 =𝑃 𝐵∩𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 ∩𝐴
= 𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵 )
= 0.42 + 0.30 × 0.030=0.429
∩ .
Hence 𝑃 𝐵 ⁄𝐴 = = = 0.9790
.

Through tree diagram

𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 = 0.70 × 0.60 = 0.42

𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 = 0.30 × 0.030 = 0.009
𝑃 𝐴 = 0.42 + 0.009 = 0.429
 𝐴 𝐴 Total

𝐵 0.60 × 0.70 0.70-0.42=0.28 0.70

= 0.42
𝐵 0.030 × 0.30 0.30-0.009=.291 1-0.70
= 0.009 =0.30
Total 0.429 0.571 1
Thank You