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Introduction To Binomial Distribution

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Introduction To Binomial Distribution

Uploaded by

deadkillerzenith
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to

Binomial
Distribution
The binomial distribution is a fundamental probability distribution in
statistics, describing the probability of a certain number of successes in a
fixed number of independent trials. Understanding this distribution is
crucial for analyzing discrete data and making informed decisions.
Definition of Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of successes in a
fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials. It is characterized by the number of trials, the probability
of success in each trial, and the number of successes.

The binomial distribution is used to calculate the probability of obtaining a specific number of
successes in a given number of independent trials, where each trial has only two possible outcomes:
success or failure.
Characteristics of Binomial Distribution
Discrete Fixed Number of Constant Mutually
Distribution Trials Probability of Exclusive
Success Outcomes
The binomial The binomial
distribution is a distribution models The probability of In each trial, the two
discrete probability the number of success in each trial possible outcomes
distribution, meaning successes in a fixed remains constant (success and failure)
it only takes on a number of throughout the are mutually
finite set of values, independent experiment, meaning exclusive and
such as the number Bernoulli trials, where it does not change exhaustive, meaning
of successes in a each trial can have from one trial to the only one can occur.
fixed number of only two possible next.
independent trials. outcomes: success or
failure.
Bernoulli Trials
A Bernoulli trial is a fundamental concept in probability theory, where an experiment has only two
possible outcomes: success or failure. Each trial is independent, and the probability of success remains
constant across all trials. The Bernoulli trial is the building block for the binomial distribution, which
models the number of successes in a series of independent Bernoulli trials.

In a Bernoulli trial, the outcome is typically denoted as either 1 (for success) or 0 (for failure). The
probability of success, often represented as p, remains the same for each trial. Bernoulli trials are
essential in understanding concepts like probability, statistical inference, and stochastic processes.
Probability Mass Function (PMF)
Definition
1 The probability mass function (PMF) defines the probability of each possible
outcome in a binomial distribution.

Inputs
2 The PMF takes two inputs: the number of trials (n) and the
probability of success in each trial (p).

Formula
3 The PMF formula is: P(X=k) = (n choose k) * p^k
* (1-p)^(n-k)

The probability mass function is a key concept in understanding the binomial distribution. It allows us
to calculate the exact probability of obtaining a specific number of successes in a fixed number of
independent trials, given the probability of success in each individual trial.
Expected Value and Variance
The expected value, or mean, of a binomial distribution represents the average number of successes
we would expect to see in a given number of trials. The formula for the expected value is simply the
product of the number of trials and the probability of success in each trial.

The variance of a binomial distribution measures how spread out the possible outcomes are from the
expected value. The formula for the variance is the product of the number of trials, the probability of
success, and the probability of failure. This quantifies the amount of deviation we can expect to see
from the mean.

Understanding the expected value and variance of a binomial distribution is crucial for making accurate
predictions and interpreting the results of binomial experiments.
Applications of Binomial Distribution
Quality Control Clinical Trials
The binomial distribution is widely used in Binomial distribution is essential in clinical
quality control processes to analyze the trials, where researchers use it to model the
number of defective items in a batch or success or failure of treatments and estimate
sample, helping manufacturers maintain the probability of desired outcomes.
product standards.

Market Research Risk Analysis


Marketers employ binomial distribution to Financial institutions and risk managers rely
forecast customer purchase behavior, gauge on binomial distribution to assess the
the effectiveness of advertising campaigns, likelihood of specific events, such as loan
and make informed business decisions. defaults or stock market fluctuations, for
better risk management.
Binomial Approximation to Normal
Distribution
For large values of the number of trials (n) and
moderate values of the success probability (p),
the binomial distribution can be approximated
by the normal distribution. This is known as the
binomial approximation to the normal
distribution.

The normal distribution provides a good


approximation when n is greater than or equal to
30 and np(1-p) is greater than or equal to 10.
Continuity Correction
When working with the binomial distribution, particularly when the
number of trials, n, is large, the discrete nature of the distribution can be
approximated by a continuous normal distribution. However, this
approximation is not perfect, and a continuity correction is often applied
to improve the accuracy of the normal distribution approximation.

The continuity correction involves adjusting the binomial probabilities to


account for the fact that the normal distribution is continuous, while the
binomial distribution is discrete. This is typically done by shifting the
normal distribution curve half a unit to the left or right, depending on
whether the probability is being calculated for a value less than or greater
than the binomial random variable.
Exercises and Examples
To reinforce the understanding of binomial distribution, let's explore some exercises and examples.
These will help apply the concepts of probability, expected value, and variance in real-world scenarios.

Example 1: Coin Flips

If a fair coin is flipped 10 times, what is the probability of getting exactly 7 heads? Use the binomial
probability formula to calculate the result.

Example 2: Quality Control

In a manufacturing process, 2% of the products are defective. If a sample of 50 products is inspected,


what is the probability that no more than 3 are defective? Solve this using the binomial distribution.

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