191AIC403T - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Unit-III -QB

UNIT III
REASONING AND INFERENCE

Part-A

1. Give the Baye’s rule equation? [APRIL/MAY 2017, APR /MAY 2018]
W.K.T P(A^B) = P(A/B) P(B) ------------------------------------ 1
P(A^B) = P(B/A) P(A) ------------------------------------- 2
DIVIDINGBYP(A); WE GET
P(B/A) = P(A/B) P(B) P(A)

2. What is the basic task of a probabilistic inference?

The basic task is to reason in terms of prior probabilities of conjunctions, but for the most
part, we will use conditional probabilities as a vehicle for
probabilistic inference.

3. What is fuzzy logic?

• The term fuzzy logic is used in two senses:

– Narrow sense: Fuzzy logic is a branch of fuzzy set theory, which deals (as logical
systems do) with the representation and inference from knowledge. Fuzzy logic,
unlike other logical systems, deals with imprecise or uncertain knowledge. In this
narrow and perhaps correct sense, fuzzy logic is just one of the branches of fuzzy set
theory.
Broad Sense: fuzzy logic synonymously with fuzzy set theory

4. Write the semantics of Bayesian network?

Semantics of Bayesian Networks

1. Representing the full joint distribution
Conditional independence relations in Bayesian networks

5. Define Dempster-Shafter Theory?

It considers sets of propositions and assigns to each of them an interval

[Belief, Plausibility]
in which the degree of belief must lie. Belief (Bel) measures the strength of the evidence in
favor of set of propositions. It ranges from 0 (indicating no evidence) to 1 (denoting certainty)

6. What is meant by belief network?

A belief network is a graph in which the following holds

A set of random variables
A set of directive links or arrows connects pairs of nodes. The conditional
probability table for each node
The graph has no directed cycles.

7. What is a Bayesian network? [ MAY/JUNE 2016 ]

Bayesian network is an approach in which we preserves the formulations & rely instead on the
modulating of the world we are trying to model.
191AIC403T - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Unit-III -QB

8. What is goal directed node?

In goal directed node the search is done in the backward direction from the goal state to an
achievable initial node

9. Why does uncertainty arise?

Agents almost never have access to the whole truth about their environment. Agents cannot
find a categorical answer.
Uncertainty can also arise because of incompleteness, incorrectness in agents understanding
of properties of environment.

10. What are the ways in which one can understand the semantics of a belief network?

There are two ways to see the network as a representation of the joint probability distribution
to view it as an encoding of collection of conditional independence statements.
11. Define Fuzzy reasoning. [NOV/DEC 2017].

Human Reasoning means the action of thinking about something in a logical/sensible way.
Fuzzy Logic (FL) is a method of reasoning that resembles human reasoning. The approach of FL
imitates the way of decision making in humans that involves all intermediate possibilities between
digital values YES and NO.

12.What is the principle in hidden markov models? [NOV/DEC 2018].

The basic principle of HMM is that the observed events have no one-to-one correspondence
with states but are linked to states through the probability distribution.

13.What are the types of reasoning?

In artificial intelligence, reasoning can be divided into the following categories:

1. Deductive reasoning
2. Inductive reasoning
3. Abductive reasoning
4. Common Sense Reasoning
5. Monotonic Reasoning
6. Non-monotonic Reasoning.

14.Write the properties of fuzzy sets. [MAY/JUNE 2016]

191AIC403T - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Unit-III -QB

15. Difference between Monotonic Reasoning vs Non-monotonic Reasoning

Monotonic Reasoning Non-Monotonic Reasoning

Monotonic Reasoning is the process

which does not change its direction or Non-monotonic Reasoning is the process
can say that it moves in the one which changes its direction or values as the
1 direction. knowledge base increases.

Monotonic Reasoning deals with very

specific type of models, which has valid Non-monotonic reasoning deals with
2 proofs. incomplete or not known facts.

The addition in knowledge will invalidate

The addition in knowledge won’t the previous conclusions and change the
3 change the result. result.

In non-monotonic reasoning, results and

In monotonic reasoning, results are set of prepositions will increase and
always true, therefore, set of decrease based on condition of added
4 prepositions will only increase. knowledge.

Monotonic Reasoning is based on true Non-monotonic Reasoning is based on

5 facts. assumptions.

Abductive Reasoning and Human

Deductive Reasoning is the type of Reasoning is a non-monotonic type of
6 monotonic reasoning. reasoning.

16.what are the Characteristics of Fuzzy Inference System

Following are some characteristics of FIS −
 The output from FIS is always a fuzzy set irrespective of its input which can be fuzzy
or crisp.
 It is necessary to have fuzzy output when it is used as a controller.
 A defuzzification unit would be there with FIS to convert fuzzy variables into crisp
variables.

17. What is a Neural Network?

A neural network is either a system software or hardware that works similar to the
tasks performed by neurons of the human brain. Neural networks include various
technologies like deep learning, and machine learning as a part of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
 191AIC403T - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Unit-III -QB

18. What is Bayes Theorem?

 Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian reasoning,
which determines the probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.
 In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of
two random events.
 It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).
 Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability of event
A with known event B:

As from product rule we can write:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or

Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)

Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:

The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem. This equation is
basic of most modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.

PART – B
1. Discuss briefly about Bayesian probability
2. Briefly discuss about reasoning done using fuzzy logic. [ MAY/JUNE 2016 ]
3. Discuss the Dempster-Shafer Theory [ MAY/ JUNE 2016 ], [APRIL/MAY 2017,
NOV/DEC 2017, APR/MAY 2018]
4. Discuss about Bayesian Theory and Bayesian Network [NOV/DEC 2017, APR/MAY 2018,
NOV/DEC 2018]
5. Construct a Bayesian Network and define the necessary CPTs for the given scenario. We have
a bag of three biased coins a,b and c with probabilities of coming up heads of 20%, 60% and 80%
respectively. One coin is drawn randomly from the bag (with equal likelihood of drawing each of the
three coins) and then the coinis flipped three times to generate the outcomes X1, X2 and X3.
[NOV/DEC 2018]
6. Explain hidden Markov models in detail.
7. Explain Neuro-fuzzy Inference in Artificial Intelligence.