LATINFOCUS

CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • June 2024
SUMMARY 2
NEWS IN FOCUS 7
CALENDAR 17
LATIN AMERICA 18
ARGENTINA 19
BRAZIL 34
CHILE 50
COLOMBIA 66
MEXICO 81
PERU 96
VENEZUELA 110
OTHER COUNTRIES 118
BOLIVIA 118
ECUADOR 121
PARAGUAY 129
URUGUAY 132
NOTES 140

Contributors
PUBLICATION DATE 11 June 2024
OLIVER REYNOLDS
FORECASTS COLLECTED Until 16.00 CET 10 June 2024
LATIN AMERICA SENIOR ECONOMIST
INFORMATION UPDATED Until 23.59 CET 9 June 2024
NEXT EDITION 9 July 2024 ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE JOAN ARGILAGÓS
Chief Economist Head of Data Solutions Head of Data Analysis

ALMANAS STANAPEDIS PAOLA TIRANZONI ANTONI CRESPI

Senior Economist Data Solutions Specialist Research Assistant
MARTA CASANOVAS JAN LEYVA ALINA PETRYK
Economist Junior Data Scientist Partnerships Manager
MATTHEW CUNNINGHAM ALBERT NAVARRO
Economist & Editor Junior Data Scientist
MAGDALENA PRESHLENOVA CRISTÓBAL BASCUÑÁN
Economist Junior Data Scientist
ADRIÀ SOLANES MARTA OLIVA
Economist Junior Data Analyst
AFONSO ALVES MONTEIRO ALEXANDER RITUERTO
Economist Junior Data Analyst
BENCE VÁRADI BORJA VALERO
Development Team Lead Junior Data Analyst
MAR LOBATO PAU ROMERO
Data Quality Coordinator Research Assistant
 Summary
Summary June 2024

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Inflation, annual average variation in %
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
World 6.3 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 4.0 8.0 6.1 5.5 3.6
United States 5.8 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 4.7 8.0 4.1 3.1 2.4
Euro Area 5.9 3.5 0.6 0.7 1.4 2.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 2.0
China 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.8 4.4 0.9 2.0 0.2 0.8 1.6
Japan 2.6 1.0 1.9 0.5 1.1 -0.2 2.5 3.2 2.3 1.8
Latin America 7.2 3.8 2.2 1.6 2.3 10.0 15.5 18.1 25.7 10.3
Chile 11.3 2.1 0.2 2.3 2.3 4.5 11.6 7.6 3.7 3.1
Mexico 6.0 3.7 3.2 2.2 1.9 5.7 7.9 5.5 4.4 3.6
Mercosur 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 2.3 16.9 24.0 32.8 53.0 18.6
Argentina 10.7 5.0 -1.6 -3.3 3.5 48.4 72.4 133.5 247.4 74.4
Brazil 4.8 3.0 2.9 1.9 2.0 8.3 9.3 4.6 4.0 3.6
Paraguay 4.0 0.2 4.7 3.8 3.7 4.8 9.8 4.6 3.6 3.8
Uruguay 5.6 4.7 0.4 3.2 2.5 7.7 9.1 5.9 5.2 5.6
Venezuela 0.5 11.8 2.3 4.2 3.8 1,589 186.7 337.2 101.5 95.6
Andean Com. 11.2 5.4 0.6 1.6 2.5 3.0 7.9 8.0 4.4 3.3
Bolivia 6.1 3.6 3.1 1.8 2.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.6
Colombia 10.8 7.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.5 10.2 11.7 6.5 4.1
Ecuador 9.8 6.2 2.4 0.7 1.6 0.1 3.5 2.2 1.7 1.9
Peru 13.4 2.7 -0.6 2.5 2.7 4.0 7.9 6.3 2.6 2.4
Centam & Carib. 7.6 4.7 3.4 2.9 3.0 3.9 7.6 4.3 2.8 3.1

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
World -6.2 -3.7 -4.6 -4.5 -4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -12.1 -5.4 -6.3 -6.2 -6.4 -3.5 -3.8 -3.0 -3.0 -2.9
Euro Area -5.2 -3.7 -3.6 -3.0 -2.6 2.7 -0.7 1.6 2.0 2.0
China -3.8 -4.7 -4.6 -4.8 -4.7 2.0 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Japan -6.1 -4.4 -5.0 -5.0 -3.5 3.9 2.0 3.6 3.7 3.6
Latin America -4.1 -3.5 -5.3 -4.8 -4.0 -1.8 -2.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.3
Chile -7.7 1.1 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -7.3 -8.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.4
Mexico -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -5.0 -3.7 -0.3 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7
Mercosur -4.1 -4.3 -7.7 -5.7 -5.0 -1.8 -2.2 -1.9 -1.1 -1.4
Argentina -3.6 -3.8 -4.4 -1.2 -0.8 1.4 -0.7 -3.3 0.7 0.3
Brazil -4.3 -4.6 -8.9 -7.1 -6.3 -2.8 -2.5 -1.4 -1.6 -1.9
Paraguay -3.6 -2.9 -4.1 -2.5 -2.0 -0.9 -7.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1
Uruguay -3.6 -3.2 -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 -2.4 -3.9 -3.6 -2.1 -2.0
Venezuela - - - - - 1.0 1.3 1.0 2.5 2.2
Andean Com. -4.8 -3.4 -3.9 -4.0 -3.4 -2.6 -3.7 -0.7 -1.5 -1.9
Bolivia -9.3 -7.1 -8.0 -7.9 -7.7 3.9 2.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2
Colombia -7.0 -5.3 -4.3 -5.0 -4.1 -5.6 -6.1 -2.5 -3.0 -3.4
Ecuador -1.6 0.0 -3.5 -2.2 -2.2 2.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.7
Peru -2.5 -1.7 -2.8 -2.6 -2.2 -2.1 -4.0 0.8 -0.3 -0.7
Centam & Carib. -3.8 -2.2 -2.3 -2.5 -2.3 -1.1 -1.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1

Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

 Summary June 2024

Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

This year, Latin America is projected to have the slowest GDP

growth among global regions. Contributing factors include political
and policy instability, high inequality, crime, corruption and a lack
of participation in key global growth industries. Nonetheless,
significant easing of monetary policy and a strong U.S. economy
will help sustain economic activity.

The economy will shrink this year due to President Milei’s

macroeconomic adjustment plan involving fiscal tightening,
currency devaluation and the elimination of price controls.
However, a notable rebound in agricultural output should provide
some support. The fate of the government’s reform package—
which is currently stuck in the Senate—is a key factor to watch.

Our Consensus is for GDP growth to slow from 2023 this year.
Both private consumption and exports growth will weaken, with
the latter slowing to roughly a third of 2023’s rate. Factors to watch
include changes in the government’s fiscal stance, plus October’s
local elections and their impact on reforms. Extreme weather
events are a downside risk.

Our Consensus is for Chile to grow faster than the Latin American
average this year. Private consumption will benefit from interest
rate cuts and lower inflation, while copper output should rebound,
thanks partly to the recent Quebrada Blanca mine expansion. The
government’s proposals to lift pensions and taxes are a key factor
to watch.

GDP growth is set to rise this year from last. Private spending will
be shored up by steady disinflation and monetary policy loosening
by the Central Bank (Banrep). That said, political uncertainty
and the government’s interventionist agenda cloud the outlook.
Social unrest, a resurgence in organized crime and a slow global
economic recovery are downside risks.

The economy should grow faster than the Latin American average
this year, thanks to nearshoring investment, brisk pre-election
government spending and strong wage growth. Moreover, the
robust U.S. economy should buoy exports and remittances.
Potential constitutional reforms to reduce political checks and
balances and boost state-owned firms are a downside risk.

GDP is forecast to rebound this year, as improved weather

supports the primary sector from Q2 onwards and lower inflation
boosts private spending. However, export growth is seen slowing
amid softer copper production growth, and political instability will
continue to weigh on investor sentiment. A government collapse
and flare-ups of social unrest are downside risks.

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

 Summary June 2024

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

From April to May, inflation increased or was stable in most

countries that have reported data. Regional inflation is expected
to rise on average this year compared to 2023, primarily driven
by a significant increase in Argentina’s inflation. However, most
other countries will experience lower average inflation in 2024
compared to 2023.

Inflation rose to 289.4% in April from March’s 287.9%. However,

the month-on-month price rise softened for the fourth month in a
row and surprised markets on the downside. This year, inflation
will average the highest in Latin America on the removal of price
controls and weaker official and parallel currency rates. A weaker-
than-expected currency is an upside risk.

In April, inflation cooled to 3.7% (March: 3.9%), marginally less

than markets anticipated, while core inflation fell to a three-year
low of 3.8% (March: 4.3%); both metrics moved closer to the
midpoint of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB)’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance
band. Inflation will slow from 2023 this year but remain above the
mid-point of the BCB’s target.

Inflation rose to 4.1% in May from April’s 4.0%, slightly above the
Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range, due to an acceleration
in transport price pressures. Inflation is forecast to average in
the upper part of the Bank’s target range for the rest of this year,
with a rise in electricity tariffs in H2 expected to add some upward
pressure.

Inflation fell to an over two-year low of 7.2% in April (March:

7.4%) on reduced price pressures for food. Similarly, core inflation
receded to 7.3% (March: 7.6%). Disinflation will continue through
Q4, although average inflation will remain above Banrep’s 2.0–
4.0% target range. A weaker-than-expected peso is an upside risk.

Inflation came in at 4.7% in May, matching April’s result and above

the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range. However, the reading
was below market expectations of 4.8%. Our Consensus is for
inflation to average marginally above target in the remainder of the
year due to elevated growth in wages and government spending.

Inflation came in at 2.0% in May, down from April’s 2.4%. May’s

result was the lowest inflation rate since December 2020. Inflation
will average lower this year than last on the lagged effects of past
interest rate hikes, and lower food price pressures as weather
conditions grow more favorable. However, a looser-than-expected
fiscal stance poses an upside risk.

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2024. Forecasts refer to AOP.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

 Summary June 2024

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

Multiple central banks continued to cut interest rates in recent

weeks. Most notably, Argentina’s monetary authority chopped its
key interest rate from 50% to 40% amid tight fiscal policy and
lower month-on-month inflation than markets were expecting.
Central banks across the region are forecast to cut interest rates
further by end-2024.

In mid-May, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) cut the 1-day

reverse repo rate to 40.00% from 50.00%. Rates have now been
cut by 93 percentage points since late last year. Tight fiscal policy
and falling month-on-month inflation likely supported the BCRA’s
decision. Our panelists forecast the 1-day reverse repo rate to be
close to its current level at end-2024.

On 8 May, the BCB dialed down the pace of its loosening cycle,
cutting the benchmark SELIC rate by 25 basis points to 10.50%.
The move had largely been anticipated by markets, despite the
BCB deviating from its prior forward guidance of a 50 basis point
cut. The next meeting is set for 18–19 June. Our panelists see
0–150 basis points of further cuts this year.

On May 23, the Central Bank reduced the monetary policy rate
by 50 basis points to 6.00%, accumulating a total reduction of
475 basis points since mid-2023. This decision was prompted by
declining core inflation and well-anchored inflation expectations.
Our panelists anticipate additional cuts of between 50 and 200
basis points by end-2024.

At its 30 April meeting, Banrep slashed the benchmark interest

rate by 50 basis points to 11.75%, matching March’s move and
meeting market expectations. The cut was driven by the continued
deceleration of inflation through March. Our panelists pencil in
an additional 100–475 basis points of cuts this year. The next
meeting is set for 28 June.

At its 9 May meeting, the Central Bank kept the overnight interbank
interest rate at 11.00%. This decision was influenced by recent
increases in inflation and higher inflation forecasts for the year.
Our panelists still expect rate cuts to resume later this year, in
order to support the economy against an expected backdrop of
declining price pressures.

At its 9 May meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) cut its key
policy interest rate from 6.00% to 5.75%. The BCRP’s decision to
extend its easing cycle was due to moderating inflation in recent
months. Our panel sees the Bank delivering further rate cuts later
this year as inflation should remain comfortably within the BCRP’s
1.0% –3.0% target range.

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |5

 Summary June 2024

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

Over the last month, the currencies of Chile and Venezuela

appreciated, while the currencies of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia,
Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay depreciated. By end-2024,
our Consensus is for all Latin American currencies to be weaker
year on year against the U.S. dollar, as deep rate cuts will reduce
the attractiveness of regional currencies.

Argentina has a crawling peg, with the Central Bank allowing the
peso to depreciate at a controlled rate in the official market. The
peso traded at ARS 899.0 per USD on 7 June, depreciating 2.0%
month on month. The parallel market rate traded at ARS 1,265 per
USD on 7 June, depreciating 17.8% month on month. The official
and parallel rates should weaken by end-2024.

The real traded at BRL 5.28 per USD on 7 June, depreciating

4.4% month on month. May’s unprecedented floods weighed on
the real. Our panelists expect the currency to appreciate from
current levels by end-2024; Brazil’s fiscal performance is a factor
to monitor.

The peso traded at CLP 917 per USD on 7 June, appreciating

2.2% month on month. Record-high prices for copper boosted the
peso in recent weeks. Our panelists expect the CLP to be broadly
stable from its current level by end-2024, though the currency
will remain vulnerable to changes in the Fed’s policy stance and
copper price swings.

The peso traded at COP 3,938 per USD on 7 June, depreciating

1.1% month on month. Our panelists expect the peso to gradually
weaken against the USD by the end of 2024 on a narrowing positive
interest rate differential with the U.S. Fed plus widening fiscal and
current account deficits weighing on investor confidence.

The peso traded at MXN 18.34 per USD on 7 June, depreciating

8.0% month on month. MORENA’s landslide election victory,
which could open the door to constitutional changes, weighed on
investor sentiment and the peso. Our panelists expect the peso
to strengthen versus the dollar from current levels by end-2024,
though much will depend on political developments.

The sol traded at PEN 3.75 per USD on 7 June, depreciating 0.5%
month on month. The PEN is expected to be close to its current
level against the USD by end-2024 despite further monetary
easing. Volatility in prices for key exports such as copper, gold and
hydrocarbons are a two-sided risk, while sociopolitical instability
poses a depreciatory risk.

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2024.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |6

 News in Focus
Summary June 2024

News in Focus
ARGENTINA: Economic activity falls at sharpest pace since
August 2020 in March
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) plunged 8.4%
compared to the same month a year earlier in March, which was a
deterioration from February’s 3.0% decrease. BRAZIL | Gross Domestic Product

BRAZIL: Activity shifts into higher gear in Q1

The Brazilian economy fired on all cylinders in Q1 2024, following
a sluggish H2 2023 performance. GDP rebounded, increasing
0.8% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first
quarter, above the downwardly revised 0.1% contraction logged
in Q4.

BRAZIL: Services PMI rises to near two-year high in May

The S&P Global Brazil Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) rose to a 22-month high of 55.3 in May from 53.7 in April, Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-
signaling a faster improvement in services-sector business activity year variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
compared to the previous month. Consensus Forecast.

CHILE: GDP growth records best reading since Q4 2021 in Q1 CHILE | Gross Domestic Product
GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-
on-quarter basis in the first quarter, up from 0.1% in the fourth
quarter of last year and broadly in line with market expectations.
Q1’s reading marked an over two-year high.

COLOMBIA: GDP growth accelerates in Q1 but fails to meet

market expectations
GDP growth gathered pace to 0.7% year on year in the first quarter
(Q4 2023: +0.3% yoy), marking the best result since Q1 2023 but
falling short of market expectations. The upturn chiefly reflected a
rebound in private spending.
Note: Year-on-year and seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes of GDP
in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
MEXICO: Inflation was stable in May
Inflation came in at 4.7% in May, matching April’s result and above
the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range. However, the reading
Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
was below market expectations of 4.8%.

MEXICO: Exchange rate tumbles following elections

The peso traded at MXN 18.34 per USD on 7 June, depreciating
8.0% month on month. This marked the weakest level since early
2023, and a reversal of the appreciatory trend that had prevailed
for most of the past two years.

PERU: Economy records fastest upturn since Q4 2022 in the

first quarter
According to a preliminary estimate, GDP rebounded, expanding
1.4% year on year in the first quarter, contrasting the 0.4% Note: Official exchange rate vs the U.S dollar.
Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
contraction logged in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1’s reading
marked the best result since Q4 2022.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |7

 Summary June 2024

Population, millions Population, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 618 624 629 634 639 645 650
Chile 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5
Mexico 130 131 132 133 134 135 136
Mercosur 260 262 264 265 267 269 270
Argentina 46.2 46.7 47.2 47.6 48.1 48.6 49.1
Brazil 203 204 205 206 208 209 210
Paraguay 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1
Uruguay 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Venezuela 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 - - -
Andean Com. 115 116 118 119 120 121 123
Bolivia 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0
Colombia 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.7 54.3 54.8
Ecuador 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6
Peru 33.4 33.7 34.1 34.4 34.8 35.1 35.5
Centam & Carib. 93.3 94.3 95.3 96.3 97.4 98.4 99.5

Notes and sources

Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts

exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).

GDP, USD billions GDP, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 5,808 6,508 6,830 7,196 7,640 8,067 8,552
Chile 302 335 326 354 390 416 449
Mexico 1,464 1,790 1,932 1,971 2,101 2,198 2,297
Mercosur 2,694 2,935 3,018 3,241 3,424 3,641 3,893
Argentina 630 642 607 684 729 784 856
Brazil 1,952 2,173 2,282 2,419 2,552 2,707 2,880
Paraguay 41.8 42.9 46.3 48.9 51.4 54.2 57.5
Uruguay 70.1 77.2 83.2 88.5 92.7 95.4 99.1
Venezuela 96 100 108 113 - - -
Andean Com. 750 794 871 911 960 1,007 1,064
Bolivia 44.1 45.1 47.8 49.8 51.0 53.3 56.4
Colombia 345 364 420 440 468 490 521
Ecuador 116.6 118.8 122.7 126.2 129.7 134.6 139.9
Peru 244 267 280 294 311 329 347
Centam & Carib. 597 653 683 719 765 804 849

Notes and sources

Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur

forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |8

 Summary June 2024

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 3.8 2.2 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
Chile 2.1 0.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5
Mexico 3.7 3.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2
Mercosur 3.5 1.9 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Argentina 5.0 -1.6 -3.3 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.7
Brazil 3.0 2.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Paraguay 0.2 4.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6
Uruguay 4.7 0.4 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
Venezuela 11.8 2.3 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.8
Andean Com. 5.4 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8
Bolivia 3.6 3.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.4
Colombia 7.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0
Ecuador 6.2 2.4 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.3
Peru 2.7 -0.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9
Centam & Carib. 4.7 3.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0

Notes and sources

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 9,392 10,434 10,858 11,346 11,949 12,516 13,164
Chile 15,235 16,805 16,216 17,539 19,188 20,350 21,874
Mexico 11,264 13,651 14,606 14,776 15,631 16,237 16,851
Mercosur 10,350 11,200 11,442 12,210 12,820 13,546 14,391
Argentina 13,625 13,748 12,866 14,367 15,143 16,144 17,438
Brazil 9,615 10,640 11,111 11,718 12,295 12,976 13,734
Paraguay 5,610 5,674 6,043 6,305 6,540 6,810 7,120
Uruguay 19,720 21,636 23,244 24,662 25,738 26,420 27,363
Venezuela 3,558 3,756 4,096 4,254 - - -
Andean Com. 6,526 6,832 7,407 7,663 7,988 8,290 8,664
Bolivia 3,686 3,715 3,891 3,999 4,033 4,158 4,331
Colombia 6,692 6,971 7,976 8,276 8,711 9,034 9,508
Ecuador 6,475 6,509 6,625 6,722 6,812 6,973 7,143
Peru 7,312 7,914 8,221 8,554 8,951 9,374 9,790
Centam & Carib. 6,403 6,927 7,165 7,465 7,853 8,173 8,534

Notes and sources

Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |9

 Summary June 2024

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 5.3 2.6 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
Chile 1.6 -5.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6
Mexico 5.2 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.3
Mercosur 5.4 2.7 0.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2
Argentina 9.7 1.1 -6.1 4.0 2.9 2.7 2.5
Brazil 4.1 3.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Paraguay 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.1 3.9
Uruguay 5.7 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.1
Venezuela 9.3 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.1
Andean Com. 7.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.8
Bolivia 3.4 3.2 2.4 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6
Colombia 10.7 0.8 1.1 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0
Ecuador 7.4 1.4 0.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3
Peru 3.6 0.1 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.8
Centam & Carib. 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0

Notes and sources

Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 5.3 4.2 1.6 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4
Chile 3.9 -1.1 -0.6 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2
Mexico 7.7 19.4 4.7 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.3
Mercosur 3.7 -2.9 -0.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
Argentina 11.1 -1.9 -10.2 6.5 5.7 5.1 5.3
Brazil 1.1 -3.0 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Paraguay -1.8 -3.5 4.5 5.5 4.6 4.2 3.9
Uruguay 11.8 -7.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.1
Venezuela 11.6 3.7 4.8 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.1
Andean Com. 7.2 -5.8 0.7 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.5
Bolivia 5.6 5.7 2.4 1.5 - - -
Colombia 11.5 -9.5 -0.1 4.7 3.8 4.2 4.4
Ecuador 8.5 0.5 -0.6 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.8
Peru 0.7 -5.4 2.0 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.0
Centam & Carib. 5.2 8.9 5.1 4.6 3.5 3.9 3.4

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 10

 Summary June 2024

Industrial Production, annual variation in % Industrial Production Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 2.2 0.4 0.9 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.5
Chile -4.6 -0.4 1.9 - - - -
Mexico 4.7 3.5 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.1 2.8
Mercosur 0.5 -0.2 0.1 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1
Argentina 4.2 -1.8 -6.4 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.8
Brazil -0.7 0.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9
Uruguay 3.6 0.6 1.4 3.6 3.1 2.5 -
Venezuela 14.3 3.9 6.0 2.8 - - -
Andean Com. 6.6 -5.7 1.2 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.4
Colombia 10.6 -5.0 0.3 3.4 4.3 4.0 4.1
Peru 1.0 -6.8 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3

Notes and sources

Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile,

Colombia, Peru and Uruguay refers to manufacturing. Latin America
and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 7.2 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3
Chile 7.8 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.2
Mexico 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4
Mercosur 8.8 7.6 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4
Argentina 6.8 6.1 8.4 8.1 7.5 7.5 7.1
Brazil 9.5 8.0 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5
Paraguay 6.7 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2
Uruguay 7.9 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.1
Venezuela 34.3 34.3 33.7 31.7 30.9 29.5 24.3
Andean Com. 8.6 7.8 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.9
Bolivia 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 - - -
Colombia 11.2 10.2 10.6 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.9
Ecuador 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1
Peru 7.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4
Centam & Carib. 7.2 6.1 6.6 6.8 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes

in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 11

 Summary June 2024

Public Debt, % of GDP Public Debt, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 61.1 65.6 63.4 63.7 65.7 66.5 67.8
Chile 37.5 38.9 40.8 41.5 40.7 40.5 39.9
Mexico 48.3 47.5 51.1 51.4 52.6 52.9 53.2
Mercosur 74.3 86.4 79.1 79.2 83.6 85.1 87.2
Argentina 85.2 132.1 90.1 77.9 89.5 89.0 93.6
Brazil 71.7 74.4 77.3 80.0 81.9 84.0 85.3
Paraguay 40.5 40.3 42.0 - - - -
Uruguay 68.2 69.0 68.6 67.9 - - -
Andean Com. 52.1 49.5 51.5 52.3 52.6 52.8 52.3
Bolivia 80.4 83.6 85.7 85.5 90.3 91.6 90.6
Colombia 60.8 56.7 59.4 60.4 60.3 60.6 60.4
Ecuador 53.5 51.4 52.1 54.5 56.1 56.8 -
Peru 33.9 32.9 33.4 33.6 33.3 33.3 33.8
Centam & Carib. 54.3 52.1 52.3 51.7 50.5 49.8 49.0

Notes and sources

Note: Public debt as % GDP.

Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and IMF.

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America -3.5 -5.3 -4.8 -4.0 -3.6 -3.5 -3.3
Chile 1.1 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2
Mexico -3.2 -3.3 -5.0 -3.7 -3.0 -3.0 -2.8
Mercosur -4.3 -7.7 -5.7 -5.0 -4.6 -4.5 -4.3
Argentina -3.8 -4.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5
Brazil -4.6 -8.9 -7.1 -6.3 -5.8 -5.6 -5.5
Paraguay -2.9 -4.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
Uruguay -3.2 -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2
Andean Com. -3.4 -3.9 -4.0 -3.4 -3.0 -2.8 -2.7
Bolivia -7.1 -8.0 -7.9 -7.7 -7.2 -6.8 -6.7
Colombia -5.3 -4.3 -5.0 -4.1 -3.7 -3.4 -3.3
Ecuador 0.0 -3.5 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8
Peru -1.7 -2.8 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6
Centam & Carib. -2.2 -2.3 -2.5 -2.3 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0

Notes and sources

Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.

Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Paraguay: Central government.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Uruguay: Total public sector.
Venezuela: General government.
Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries and IMF.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 12

 Summary June 2024

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 15.5 18.1 25.7 10.3 6.8 5.1 4.6
Chile 11.6 7.6 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
Mexico 7.9 5.5 4.4 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3
Mercosur 24.0 32.8 53.0 18.6 11.0 7.4 6.3
Argentina 72.4 133.5 247.4 74.4 38.4 21.3 16.2
Brazil 9.3 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Paraguay 9.8 4.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9
Uruguay 9.1 5.9 5.2 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.7
Venezuela 186.7 337.2 101.5 95.6 64.4 59.4 63.4
Andean Com. 7.9 8.0 4.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.7
Bolivia 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.6 4.0 3.8 3.6
Colombia 10.2 11.7 6.5 4.1 3.3 3.2 3.1
Ecuador 3.5 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8
Peru 7.9 6.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3
Centam & Carib. 7.6 4.3 2.8 3.1 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Average-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 18.91 20.11 11.95 9.27 8.40 7.47 7.17
Chile 11.25 8.25 4.75 4.23 4.32 4.33 4.20
Mexico 10.50 11.25 9.85 7.68 6.85 6.81 6.92
Mercosur 27.92 30.91 16.23 12.43 11.03 9.17 8.47
Argentina 75.00 100.00 42.21 25.57 19.99 11.02 8.52
Brazil 13.75 11.75 9.83 9.04 8.74 8.72 8.52
Paraguay 8.50 6.75 5.50 5.06 5.08 5.08 5.08
Uruguay 11.25 9.25 8.19 7.67 7.08 - -
Andean Com. 10.14 10.35 7.08 5.14 4.74 4.79 4.69
Colombia 12.00 13.00 8.56 5.84 5.28 5.36 5.13
Peru 7.50 6.75 4.85 4.09 3.93 3.94 4.04
Centam & Carib. 6.35 5.64 4.59 4.11 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: One-day reverse repo rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
Uruguay: Monetary policy rate.
Sources: National central banks

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 13

 Summary June 2024

Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in % Exchange Rates versus USD, 2024
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America -2.3 1.0 -7.2 -4.8 -3.2 -1.9 0.8
Chile 0.0 -2.4 -3.6 2.8 0.7 -2.0 1.9
Mexico 5.0 15.1 -4.8 -3.9 -0.9 -1.5 -0.1
Mercosur -5.6 -10.6 -10.9 -7.6 -6.1 -2.4 1.6
Argentina -42.0 -78.1 -39.3 -31.8 -24.3 -9.8 8.5
Brazil 5.5 8.7 -3.8 -1.1 -1.0 -0.3 -0.3
Paraguay -6.2 1.1 -1.7 -1.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.6
Uruguay 12.7 1.6 -1.9 -4.1 -4.9 -1.1 -3.0
Andean Com. -7.6 15.1 -3.9 -0.8 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4
Bolivia -0.3 0.2 -2.4 -3.9 -11.0 -1.0 -1.0
Colombia -17.2 25.9 -5.6 -1.1 0.7 -1.6 -0.5
Peru 4.6 3.0 -1.5 0.1 0.6 -0.5 -0.1
Centam & Carib. -0.2 2.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.7 -1.6 -0.3

Notes and sources

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus

USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
On 1 October 2021, authorities in Venezuela removed six zeros from
the currency. As a result, the figures have been temporarily removed
from the table.
Sources: Central banks and Macrobond Financial AB.

Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America -2.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4
Chile -8.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.5
Mexico -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
Mercosur -2.2 -1.9 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4
Argentina -0.7 -3.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
Brazil -2.5 -1.4 -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9
Paraguay -7.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4
Uruguay -3.9 -3.6 -2.1 -2.0 -2.1 -1.6 -1.5
Venezuela 1.3 1.0 2.5 2.2 1.4 - -
Andean Com. -3.7 -0.7 -1.5 -1.9 -2.0 -1.9 -1.9
Bolivia 2.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -3.3 -2.6 -2.4
Colombia -6.1 -2.5 -3.0 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2
Ecuador 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4
Peru -4.0 0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9
Centam & Carib. -1.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9

Notes and sources

Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 14

 Summary June 2024

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 17.3 -2.4 4.7 4.1 4.9 4.5 6.3
Chile 4.2 -4.1 4.5 3.2 4.3 2.7 2.2
Mexico 16.7 2.6 5.7 4.1 5.0 5.0 3.4
Mercosur 17.1 -4.0 4.3 4.5 5.1 4.0 9.2
Argentina 13.5 -24.5 18.3 7.2 4.7 2.9 2.0
Brazil 19.0 1.7 0.4 3.9 5.3 4.4 11.6
Paraguay -3.1 26.8 0.2 6.0 1.1 3.7 4.6
Uruguay 7.5 -11.5 12.8 2.1 5.8 4.4 3.6
Venezuela 46.9 -1.9 18.3 -4.1 2.9 1.1 0.2
Andean Com. 24.4 -6.4 3.8 2.4 4.5 4.8 5.4
Bolivia 21.5 -20.3 7.2 2.2 2.5 7.1 5.0
Colombia 39.2 -11.5 4.8 2.5 4.8 4.8 7.7
Ecuador 22.5 -4.7 1.1 -0.6 2.3 3.2 -0.9
Peru 4.8 2.0 2.9 3.5 5.3 5.1 4.7
Centam & Carib. 17.2 -3.5 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.9 4.1

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 22.8 -7.7 3.7 6.0 5.5 4.8 6.4
Chile 12.5 -16.4 5.5 5.1 4.0 4.1 2.6
Mexico 19.6 -1.0 6.2 4.0 5.5 5.2 3.5
Mercosur 25.2 -10.8 1.1 8.0 6.1 4.4 9.4
Argentina 29.0 -9.6 -16.1 12.5 7.2 7.1 0.8
Brazil 24.2 -11.7 5.4 7.0 5.8 3.6 12.3
Paraguay 17.1 4.7 1.9 5.8 1.2 4.6 3.7
Uruguay 20.8 -4.1 8.1 3.7 7.7 4.6 4.0
Venezuela 42.6 -4.3 12.5 7.6 -4.7 2.8 -5.1
Andean Com. 23.5 -12.3 5.3 3.6 4.5 5.3 4.3
Bolivia 30.1 -3.2 -3.9 -0.7 5.7 3.5 4.1
Colombia 26.3 -17.1 6.4 3.9 4.3 4.9 3.5
Ecuador 27.2 -4.0 0.3 2.2 1.8 3.7 2.1
Peru 16.7 -11.0 7.5 4.7 5.5 6.9 6.5
Centam & Carib. 24.8 -0.4 5.7 5.4 4.4 5.8 4.6

Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 15

 Summary June 2024

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 9.0 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.7
Chile 5.0 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5
Mexico 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9
Mercosur 12.4 14.4 14.8 14.2 13.9 13.9 13.3
Argentina 6.6 3.8 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0
Brazil 14.3 17.7 17.2 16.4 15.9 15.9 15.1
Paraguay 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.9 - - -
Uruguay 13.4 15.0 14.4 14.5 13.7 13.7 13.8
Venezuela 8.8 9.1 8.2 7.9 8.6 8.7 9.6
Andean Com. 10.2 11.7 11.2 11.1 11.6 11.4 -
Bolivia 3.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 - - -
Colombia 9.6 12.0 11.3 11.1 10.4 10.1 9.9
Ecuador 3.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.9 -
Peru 15.5 17.2 16.6 16.6 17.1 16.8 17.5
Centam & Carib. 5.8 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.6 7.0

Notes and sources

Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks.

External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2024

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Latin America 37.9 35.2 34.2 33.4 - - -
Chile 76.1 71.8 74.5 71.9 - - -
Mexico 39.8 33.2 31.3 32.2 29.6 28.9 28.3
Mercosur 25.0 24.1 23.3 22.2 - - -
Argentina 43.9 44.5 46.0 41.6 39.2 37.5 35.6
Brazil 16.4 15.7 14.9 14.3 - - -
Paraguay 58.6 62.0 59.8 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.5
Uruguay 76.1 67.3 68.2 66.0 - - -
Venezuela 114.9 110.6 102.6 - - - -
Andean Com. 47.8 47.6 46.1 45.9 - - -
Bolivia 36.1 37.5 38.0 40.4 45.0 49.4 54.0
Colombia 53.2 54.0 49.8 50.9 50.7 51.1 51.0
Ecuador 49.4 50.6 51.3 - - - -
Peru 41.6 39.3 39.5 39.3 - - -
Centam & Carib. 66.6 62.7 62.3 61.1 - - -

Notes and sources

Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur

forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 16

 Economic Release Calendar
Calendar June 2024

Date Country Event

10 June Dominican Republic Consumer Prices May

11 June Brazil Consumer Prices May
Colombia Consumer Prices May
Costa Rica Economic Activity April
12 June Uruguay Industrial Production April
13 June Argentina Consumer Prices May
Brazil Economic Activity April
Uruguay National Accounts
14 June Panama Consumer Prices May
16 June Peru Economic Activity April
18 June Chile Central Bank Meeting
Colombia Economic Activity April
19 June Brazil Central Bank Meeting
Panama Economic Activity March
Argentina Merchandise Trade May
20 June Costa Rica Central Bank Meeting
Dominican Republic Economic Activity April
21 June Mexico Economic Activity April
24 June Brazil Balance of Payments May
Argentina National Accounts Q1 2024
26 June Guatemala Central Bank Meeting June
27 June Mexico Central Bank Meeting
Mexico Merchandise Trade May
28 June Colombia Central Bank Meeting
Dominican Republic Central Bank Meeting
Argentina Economic Activity April
Brazil Economic Sentiment June
30 June Ecuador National Accounts Q1 2024
01 July Chile Business Confidence June
Chile Economic Activity May
Brazil Manufacturing PMI June
02 July Colombia Manufacturing PMI June
03 July Uruguay Consumer Prices June
Mexico PMI June
Brazil Services PMI June
05 July Costa Rica Consumer Prices June
Argentina Industrial Production May
07 July Peru Central Bank Meeting
Colombia Consumer Confidence June
Peru Consumer Prices June
08 July Chile Consumer Prices June

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 17

 Latin Americ Latin America June 2024

Latin America
Latin American economy to stay sluggish
Economic overview: Latin America’s annual GDP growth is expected to
have eased from 1.6% in Q4 to 1.3% in Q1, which would be slightly over
half the world average rate. Looking at the key regional economies, Brazil,
Chile, Colombia and Peru accelerated in Q1, while Mexico saw economic
momentum ebb. Argentina has yet to report firm GDP data for the first quarter,
though monthly economic activity data and our panelists’ forecasts point to a
deepening economic contraction amid significant spending cuts and surging
inflation. In politics, general elections in Mexico in early June saw a landslide
victory for the incumbent MORENA party. This will ensure a continued focus
on state-led economic development and poverty reduction, but it also raises
Oliver Reynolds the risk of constitutional reforms that could weaken democratic guardrails
Economist and hamper the private sector.

GDP outlook: This year, Latin America is projected to have the slowest
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP growth among global regions. Contributing factors include political and
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 policy instability, high inequality, crime, corruption and a lack of participation
GDP growth (%): 1.5 2.0 2.4 in key global growth industries. Nonetheless, significant easing of monetary
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.3 -4.7 -3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP): 64.3 64.2 66.7 policy and a strong U.S. economy will help sustain economic activity. Our
Inflation (%): 10.6 18.0 5.5 panelists see Latin America GDP expanding 1.6% in 2024, unchanged from
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.5 -1.2 -1.3
one month ago, and expanding 2.3% in 2025.

Inflation: From April to May, inflation increased or was stable in most

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts countries that have reported data. Regional inflation is expected to rise on
average this year compared to 2023, primarily driven by a significant increase
in Argentina’s inflation. However, most other countries will experience lower
average inflation in 2024 compared to 2023. Our panelists see Latin America
consumer prices rising 25.7% on average in 2024, down by 1.0 percentage
points from one month ago, and rising 10.3% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: Multiple central banks continued to cut interest rates in

recent weeks. Most notably, Argentina’s monetary authority chopped its
key interest rate from 50% to 40% amid tight fiscal policy and lower month-
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
on-month inflation than markets were expecting. Central banks across the
region are forecast to cut interest rates further by end-2024. Our panelists
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
see the aggregate policy rate in Latin America ending 2024 at 11.95% and
ending 2025 at 9.27%.

Currency: Over the last month, the currencies of Chile and Venezuela
appreciated, while the currencies of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico,
Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay depreciated. By end-2024, our Consensus is
for all Latin American currencies to be weaker year on year against the U.S.
dollar, as deep rate cuts will reduce the attractiveness of regional currencies.
Our panelists see regional currencies depreciating 7.2% on aggregate
against the USD in 2024 and depreciating 4.8% in 2025.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 18

 Argentina June 2024

Argentina
Economy to contract in 2024
Economic overview: The economy likely shrank at a steeper quarter-
on-quarter pace in Q1 2024 compared to Q4. A surge in inflation due to
currency devaluation and the lifting of price controls will have weighed on
private spending. In addition, public spending will have been hit by a tight
fiscal stance: The government ran a budget surplus of over ARS 1 trillion
(USD 1.1 billion) in Q1, compared to a deficit of ARS 3.6 trillion in Q4 last
year. Data for Q1 is downbeat: Economic activity fell month on month
throughout the quarter. Turning to Q2, the economic downturn should be
easing, and available indicators are moderately upbeat: In April, industrial
production rebounded from March, inflation undershot market expectations,
Oliver Reynolds and exports rose by double digits as the agricultural sector recovered from
Economist last year’s severe drought. In addition, consumer confidence rose for the
fourth straight month in May.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: The economy will shrink this year due to President Milei’s
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 macroeconomic adjustment plan involving fiscal tightening, currency
GDP growth (%): 1.9 -0.5 2.8 devaluation and the elimination of price controls. However, a notable
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.3 -2.1 -0.8
Public Debt (% of GDP): 89.9 100.0 90.7
rebound in agricultural output should provide some support. The fate of the
Inflation (%): 54.3 151.8 25.3 government’s reform package—which is currently stuck in the Senate—is a
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.5 -0.8 0.2
key factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.3%
in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 3.5% in 2025.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
Inflation: Inflation rose to 289.4% in April from March’s 287.9%. However,
the month-on-month price rise softened for the fourth month in a row and
surprised markets on the downside. This year, inflation will average the
highest in Latin America on the removal of price controls and weaker official
and parallel currency rates. A weaker-than-expected currency is an upside
risk. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 247.4% on
average in 2024, which is down by 9.5 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 74.4% on average in 2025.

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025

2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Monetary policy: In mid-May, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) cut
the 1-day reverse repo rate to 40.00% from 50.00%. Rates have now been
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
cut by 93 percentage points since late last year. Tight fiscal policy and
falling month-on-month inflation likely supported the BCRA’s decision. Our
panelists forecast the 1-day reverse repo rate to be close to its current level
at end-2024. FocusEconomics panelists see the 1-day reverse repo rate
ending 2024 at 42.21% and ending 2025 at 25.57%.

Currency: Argentina has a crawling peg, with the Central Bank allowing the
peso to depreciate at a controlled rate in the official market. The peso traded
at ARS 899.0 per USD on 7 June, depreciating 2.0% month on month. The
parallel market rate traded at ARS 1,265 per USD on 7 June, depreciating
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 17.8% month on month. The official and parallel rates should weaken by
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.
end-2024. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2024 at ARS
1331.1 per USD and ending 2025 at ARS 1952.5 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 19

 Argentina June 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity falls at sharpest pace since August

2020 in March
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % Latest reading: The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) plunged
8.4% compared to the same month a year earlier in March, which was a
deterioration from February’s 3.0% decrease. The outturn marked the worst
reading since August 2020. March’s notable deterioration reflected steeper
drops in the manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the agricultural
sector rose at a faster pace.

On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 1.4% in March, which was below
February’s flat reading. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual
average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 3.1% in March,
down from February’s minus 2.3%.

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez
(Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica)
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC). M., Diego Ciongo and Soledad Castagna stated:

“The adjustment in Argentina marches on, with sharper declines in economic

activity taking place as nominal variables have also adjusted faster than
expected. As a result, our 2024 GDP call for a contraction of 3.0% has
downside risks, despite the normalization of the agriculture sector.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.3%

in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 3.5% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Decline in industrial output softens in April

Industrial Production | variation in % Latest reading: Industrial production declined 16.6% year on year in April
(March: -21.4% yoy). The softer drop was due to improvements in the
machinery and equipment, basic metals, food and beverages, and automotive
vehicles subsectors.

On a monthly basis, industrial output rose 1.8% in seasonally adjusted terms

in April, rebounding from March’s 4.1% fall and marking the best result since
April 2023. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average
variation of industrial production coming in at minus 7.4%, down from March’s
minus 5.9% reading.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of industrial production in %. contracting 6.4% in 2024, which is down by 1.1 percentage points from one
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC). month ago, and expanding 4.1% in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Month-on-month inflation down for fourth month

running
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Latest reading: Inflation came in at 289.4% in April, which was up from
March’s 287.9%. April’s result marked the highest inflation rate since our
current records began.

Annual average inflation rose to 199.7% in April (March: 183.2%).

Lastly, consumer prices increased 8.83% from the previous month in April,
moderating from March’s 11.01% rise. The month-on-month decline was the
fourth in a row and surprised markets on the downside. April’s result marked
the weakest reading since October 2023.

Panelist insight: Analysts at Credicorp Capital commented:

Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %.

Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
“We have revised downward our inflation estimate for December 2024 to
170.7% from 195.7%. This is considering that: i) it is likely that the inflation
for May 2024 will be lower due to the postponement of adjustments in certain

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 20

 Argentina June 2024

public services fees and health insurance, which are expected to be carried
out later in the year; ii) the multiple early cuts by the BCRA in Apr 2024 seem
to incorporate the expectation of a further decline in inflation in the coming
months; and iii) there has been a new reduction in inflation expectations.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

247.4% on average in 2024, which is down by 9.5 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 74.4% on average in 2025.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports rise at a more moderate rate

in April
Merchandise Trade Latest reading: Merchandise exports soared 10.7% annually in April (March:
+13.0% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports plunged 22.7% over
the same month last year in April (March: -36.7% yoy).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous

month, recording a USD 1.8 billion surplus in April (March 2024: USD 2.1
billion surplus; April 2023: USD 0.2 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed up,
with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 0.8
billion surplus in April, compared to the USD 1.2 billion deficit in March.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, analysts at Itaú Unibanco

stated:
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports
in %. “We expect the trade surplus to continue in the coming months, driven by
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
import compression and the normalization of the agriculture sector. For 2024,
we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion
in 2023.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising

18.3% in 2024, which is down by 0.7 percentage points from one month ago,
and rising 7.2% in 2025.

Our panelists see merchandise imports falling 16.1% in 2024, which is down
by 1.8 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 12.5% in 2025.

Our panelists see a trade surplus of USD 17.1 billion in 2024 and a trade
surplus of USD 15.0 billion in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 21

 Argentina June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 44.9 45.4 45.8 46.2 46.7 47.2 47.6 48.1 48.6 49.1
GDP per Capita (USD) 9,942 8,485 10,632 13,625 13,748 12,866 14,367 15,143 16,144 17,438
GDP (USD bn) 447 385 487 630 642 607 684 729 784 856
GDP (ARS bn) 21,558 27,210 46,346 82,436 189,780 606,329 1.17 mn 1.64 mn 2.05 mn 2.25 mn
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 46.2 26.2 70.3 77.9 130.2 219.5 92.8 40.3 24.7 9.9
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -2.0 -9.9 10.7 5.0 -1.6 -3.3 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -6.1 -12.2 10.4 9.7 1.1 -6.1 4.0 2.9 2.7 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -6.4 -2.0 6.3 1.9 1.2 -6.9 0.5 1.8 2.0 1.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -16.0 -13.1 33.8 11.1 -1.9 -10.2 6.5 5.7 5.1 5.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 9.8 -17.4 8.5 5.8 -6.7 11.3 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -18.7 -17.2 20.4 17.9 2.2 -8.6 5.4 5.0 4.2 4.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -6.3 -7.5 15.7 4.2 -1.8 -6.4 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 45.2 45.0 47.9 78.4 144.6 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.8 11.5 8.8 6.8 6.1 8.4 8.1 7.5 7.5 7.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.8 -8.4 -3.6 -3.8 -4.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 89.8 103.9 80.6 85.2 132.1 90.1 77.9 89.5 89.0 93.6
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 29.0 78.9 59.5 67.6 170.6 127.8 84.8 28.0 13.8 16.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 53.8 36.1 50.9 94.8 211.4 161.6 53.1 29.8 17.2 13.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 53.5 42.0 48.4 72.4 133.5 247.4 74.4 38.4 21.3 16.2
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 58.3 42.5 59.1 69.3 135.7 251.4 61.2 23.9 13.3 11.5
1-Day Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 55.00 38.00 38.00 75.00 100.00 42.21 25.57 19.99 11.02 8.52
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 39.44 34.25 34.19 68.81 109.00 38.77 25.59 19.03 10.65 7.64
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 59.9 84.1 102.7 177.1 808.5 1,331 1,952 2,579 2,861 2,638
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 78.50 166.00 208.00 346.00 1,025 1,397 1,748 2,408 2,336 2,487
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 48.25 70.67 95.16 130.86 295.62 999.18 1,708 2,251 2,608 2,627
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 51.84 123.70 170.79 253.52 620.12 1,219 1,572 2,078 2,372 2,411
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.5 2.7 6.6 -4.3 -21.5 4.1 1.9 3.0 1.4 0.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.8 0.7 1.4 -0.7 -3.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 16.0 12.5 14.8 6.9 -6.9 17.1 15.0 14.0 11.2 12.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 65.1 54.9 77.9 88.4 66.8 79.0 84.6 88.6 91.1 92.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 49.1 42.4 63.2 81.5 73.7 61.9 69.6 74.6 79.9 80.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 5.4 -15.7 42.0 13.5 -24.5 18.3 7.2 4.7 2.9 2.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -25.0 -13.8 49.2 29.0 -9.6 -16.1 12.5 7.2 7.1 0.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.6 4.7 6.8 15.1 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 44.8 39.4 39.7 44.6 23.1 33.2 39.8 43.4 47.2 47.0
International Reserves (months of imports) 11.0 11.2 7.5 6.6 3.8 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0
External Debt (USD bn) 278 271 267 276 286 279 284 285 294 305
External Debt (% of GDP) 62.3 70.3 54.8 43.9 44.5 46.0 41.6 39.2 37.5 35.6
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -0.8 -1.4 -4.9 -2.2 -3.9 -1.6 2.7 3.0 3.8 3.9
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 2.2 -1.9 -2.8 -0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.2 -1.5 -7.1 -7.2 -7.2 -4.1 1.5 3.8 4.6 5.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -3.2 -8.2 -9.4 -9.9 -7.4 -5.0 -1.2 1.3 2.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.0 -6.8 -14.3 -18.1 -13.4 -0.6 1.6 5.7 7.1 7.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -4.7 -6.3 9.2 16.7 15.6 10.1 12.4 9.8 7.8 7.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.1 -1.8 -9.0 -11.0 -5.2 8.3 13.0 10.4 5.2 0.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.7 5.7 7.7 8.1 8.1 7.9 8.1 7.7 7.6 7.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 125.9 172.8 273.5 287.5 259.6 191.4 112.0 80.1 65.5 54.4
1-Day Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 118.00 100.00 80.00 37.75 36.15 45.50 45.00 37.50 32.50 31.25
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 113.88 109.00 70.88 38.42 36.25 42.36 44.33 24.22 20.12 19.90
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 350.0 808.5 857.5 952.1 1,114 1,335 1,562 1,696 1,880 2,051
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 800.00 1,025 1,010 1,237 1,303 1,493 - - - -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -2.2 -1.4 0.2 -0.2 0.6 -0.4 0.9 0.1 0.6
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Economic Activity (EMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -1.4 -2.6 -0.4 0.0 -1.4 - -
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %) 0.0 -0.7 1.0 -0.9 -4.5 -4.1 -3.0 -8.4 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -3.0 -3.3 -0.7 -4.8 -12.8 -12.2 -9.8 -21.4 -16.6 -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 138.3 149.9 166.6 168.4 218.9 248.0 274.7 291.8 - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 44.1 43.4 45.1 47.5 39.8 35.6 36.0 36.7 37.2 38.3
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 12.44 12.75 8.30 12.81 25.47 20.61 13.24 11.01 8.83 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 124.4 138.3 142.7 160.9 211.4 254.2 276.2 287.9 289.4 -
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 350.0 350.0 350.0 360.6 808.5 826.2 842.3 857.5 876.8 895.2
Non-official Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 735.00 800.00 920.00 905.00 1,025 1,195 1,030 1,010 1,040 1,225
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -21.6 -23.5 -32.2 -30.9 -13.8 9.6 5.6 13.0 10.7 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 27.8 26.9 22.6 21.5 23.1 27.6 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.7
Notes: On 18 December, the Central Bank of Argentina switched its benchmark interest rate to the 1-Day Reverse Repo Rate from the previous 28-day Leliq
Rate. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 22

 Argentina June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABECEB -4.0 5.6
Allianz -2.5 2.0
Analytica Consultora -3.6 -
Aurum Valores -2.9 3.1
Banco de Galicia -3.8 5.0
Banco Supervielle -2.9 3.4
BancTrust & Co. -6.8 4.5
Barclays Capital -4.0 4.5
BBVA Argentina -4.0 6.0
C&T Asesores -3.2 -
Capital Economics -3.8 2.0
Credicorp Capital -3.3 3.4
DekaBank -3.7 2.5
E2 Economia -4.3 4.4
Eco Go -3.4 2.8
Ecolatina -3.7 3.8
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
Econométrica -3.0 5.0
Econosignal -2.7 2.0
Econviews -3.6 5.0
EIU -3.4 4.3
EmergingMarketWatch -4.5 2.3
EMFI -3.1 5.0
Empiria Consultores -4.4 3.7
Equilibra -4.0 2.5
Euromonitor Int. -3.1 3.4
FIEL -3.8 4.3
Fitch Ratings -3.6 3.9
Fitch Solutions -3.8 2.5
FMyA -3.9 4.5
FrontierView -3.0 1.3
Goldman Sachs -3.2 1.7
HSBC -4.0 3.0
Invecq Consulting -4.0 -
Itaú Unibanco -3.0 2.5
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
JPMorgan -3.6 5.2
Julius Baer -2.2 3.0
Kiel Institute -3.1 2.7
LCG -4.2 -
MAP -3.0 4.4
MAPFRE Economics -2.2 1.9
Moody's Analytics -3.0 3.3
OJF & Asociados -4.0 5.2
Oxford Economics -3.9 4.2
Pantheon Macroeconomics -2.9 2.4
Pezco Economics -2.7 0.9
Quantum Finanzas -2.9 3.5
S&P Global Ratings -3.5 3.3
Santander -3.8 3.2
Standard Chartered -1.1 2.0
Torino Capital -1.2 -
UBS -0.8 1.4
UIA - CEU -3.0 -
VDC Consultora -2.6 3.5
Notes and sources Public Forecasts
IMF -2.8 5.0
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. World Bank -2.8 5.0
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the Others (3)** -3.2 2.3
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist Summary
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.
Minimum -6.8 0.9
General: Maximum -0.8 6.0
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Median -3.3 3.4
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute Consensus -3.3 3.5
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
History
Forecast. The Consensus Forecast for domestic demand contains a range of definitions.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. 30 days ago -3.2 3.3
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 60 days ago -3.1 3.4
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months. 90 days ago -2.7 3.1
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 23

 Argentina June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB -6.9 4.5 -13.6 11.5
Analytica Consultora -4.2 - -12.4 -
Banco de Galicia -5.9 - -12.3 -
Banco Supervielle -6.7 4.6 -8.9 5.4
BancTrust & Co. -14.5 11.5 -9.6 12.9
Barclays Capital - - -6.3 6.6
BBVA Argentina -2.9 5.1 -13.6 17.2
Capital Economics -5.3 1.1 -11.3 0.5
Credicorp Capital -4.9 4.2 -6.3 8.3
Eco Go -7.1 3.3 -17.0 9.6
Ecolatina -4.9 4.0 -12.7 8.6
Econométrica -5.0 7.0 -10.0 12.0
Econviews -6.3 5.0 -4.8 6.3
EIU -7.8 7.1 -10.0 8.0
Empiria Consultores -9.0 5.4 -15.8 8.8 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Euromonitor Int. -6.1 3.8 - -
FIEL -9.6 4.7 -20.7 7.9
Fitch Solutions -5.0 2.3 -7.5 5.0
FMyA -8.3 6.6 -7.5 0.0
FrontierView -5.9 0.6 - -
Goldman Sachs -2.8 0.6 -19.4 -1.7
HSBC -6.6 4.1 -14.7 7.6
Invecq Consulting -5.0 - -12.0 -
LCG -6.1 - -1.4 -
MAPFRE Economics -5.9 2.0 -10.0 1.4
Moody's Analytics -3.7 3.3 -9.4 3.5
OJF & Asociados -6.6 6.3 -7.7 6.6
Oxford Economics -11.8 3.1 -9.9 1.5
Pezco Economics -3.0 0.8 -6.0 1.7
Quantum Finanzas -3.9 3.8 -6.0 12.0
S&P Global Ratings -5.5 3.2 -4.5 3.4
Torino Capital -4.5 - -3.3 -
UBS -2.7 1.1 -3.4 1.0 8 | Investment | variation in %
Public Forecasts
IMF* -6.7 3.5 -23.6 12.7
OECD -5.9 2.3 -5.0 4.9
World Bank -6.7 3.5 -23.6 12.7
Summary
Minimum -14.5 0.6 -23.6 -1.7
Maximum -2.7 11.5 -1.4 17.2
Median -5.9 3.8 -9.9 6.6
Consensus -6.1 4.0 -10.2 6.5
History
30 days ago -5.9 3.8 -9.5 6.1
60 days ago -5.9 4.1 -10.0 6.8
90 days ago -5.7 3.9 -6.6 6.9

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 24

 Argentina June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB -11.8 5.0 7.1 6.7
Banco de Galicia -7.9 - 6.8 -
Banco Supervielle -4.2 2.0 6.7 7.4
BBVA Argentina - - 8.6 7.9
Capital Economics -0.9 0.8 7.2 8.5
Credicorp Capital - - 9.2 8.3
E2 Economia -5.6 4.5 - -
Eco Go - - 9.4 9.1
Ecolatina - - 8.1 7.4
Econométrica -4.0 6.0 7.7 7.2
Econviews - - 7.7 6.6
EIU -9.4 7.1 8.8 8.3
EMFI - - 7.1 6.8
Empiria Consultores - - 9.0 -
Equilibra - - 9.5 9.0 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Euromonitor Int. -7.5 8.1 8.2 8.1
FIEL - - 8.9 8.5
Fitch Ratings - - 9.5 8.5
Fitch Solutions - - 11.0 9.0
FrontierView - - 9.9 8.5
Goldman Sachs - - 8.1 7.8
HSBC -7.7 2.1 6.9 6.6
Invecq Consulting -5.0 - 8.5 -
LCG -14.6 - 7.2 -
MAP -6.3 3.8 11.3 10.5
Moody's Analytics -11.2 2.3 9.0 7.6
OJF & Asociados -1.7 2.5 9.6 10.0
Oxford Economics -7.5 7.3 7.9 7.9
Pezco Economics -2.1 0.7 8.6 8.6
Quantum Finanzas -7.2 6.8 7.5 8.3
S&P Global Ratings - - 9.5 8.5
Torino Capital - - 7.0 -
UBS -2.5 3.5 8.5 8.0 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
UIA - CEU -7.0 - - -
VDC Consultora -4.2 3.0 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF - - 8.0 7.5
Summary
Minimum -14.6 0.7 6.7 6.6
Maximum -0.9 8.1 11.3 10.5
Median -6.7 3.6 8.5 8.2
Consensus -6.4 4.1 8.4 8.1
History
30 days ago -5.3 3.8 8.4 8.0
60 days ago -4.5 3.9 8.4 8.0
90 days ago -3.4 3.5 8.7 8.1

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 25

 Argentina June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB -0.3 -0.8 91.8 77.5
Analytica Consultora -1.1 - - -
Aurum Valores -0.5 -0.5 - -
Banco de Galicia -0.2 - - -
Banco Supervielle 0.0 -0.4 - -
BancTrust & Co. 0.0 0.5 - -
Barclays Capital -1.7 -1.2 - -
BBVA Argentina -2.1 -1.6 - -
Capital Economics -4.3 -4.0 91.6 75.2
Credicorp Capital -1.8 -0.7 94.1 74.3
DekaBank -1.1 -1.1 - -
Eco Go 0.2 -0.4 - -
Ecolatina -1.1 -2.5 - -
Econométrica 0.0 0.0 80.0 80.0
Econviews -1.0 -1.0 - - 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
EIU -0.8 -0.7 85.1 75.7
EMFI -2.1 -1.5 - -
Empiria Consultores -1.0 2.2 - -
Equilibra -1.8 -1.8 - -
FIEL -1.0 - - -
Fitch Ratings -3.6 -1.9 86.4 63.6
Fitch Solutions -1.7 -0.5 120.0 89.9
FMyA 0.1 1.9 - -
Goldman Sachs -2.5 -2.5 86.3 61.2
HSBC -1.6 -0.9 - -
Invecq Consulting -2.0 - - -
LCG 0.0 - - -
MAP -1.5 -1.0 91.8 77.5
MAPFRE Economics -1.3 -1.4 - -
Moody's Analytics - - 73.0 73.2
OJF & Asociados -1.0 -0.5 - -
Oxford Economics -0.8 -1.2 - -
Pezco Economics -2.3 -2.4 106.7 123.4 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Quantum Finanzas -0.5 0.0 - -
Torino Capital - - 85.0 -
UBS - - 87.7 61.7
Public Forecasts
IMF 0.0 0.7 86.2 79.5
World Bank 0.0 0.7 85.5 78.3
Summary
Minimum -4.3 -4.0 73.0 61.2
Maximum 0.2 2.2 120.0 123.4
Median -1.0 -0.8 86.4 76.6
Consensus -1.2 -0.8 90.1 77.9
History
30 days ago -1.4 -1.0 91.8 77.5
60 days ago -1.5 -1.0 92.2 76.5
90 days ago -1.7 -1.1 95.7 79.4

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Economy. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance % of GDP.

15 Fical balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 26

 Argentina June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 123.6 23.8 224.9 41.0
Allianz - - 200.0 79.9
Analytica Consultora 153.3 - 239.4 -
Aurum Valores 140.6 38.6 - -
Banco de Galicia 139.1 42.6 231.4 57.9
Banco Supervielle 146.4 51.5 235.8 78.8
BancTrust & Co. 127.6 11.1 286.9 28.2
Barclays Capital 195.8 40.0 284.4 68.5
BBVA Argentina 175.0 50.0 259.3 72.6
C&T Asesores 118.5 - - -
Capital Economics 238.5 186.8 261.5 102.5
Credicorp Capital 163.7 56.9 - -
DekaBank - - 258.3 54.6
E2 Economia 177.9 32.5 - -
Eco Go 138.9 49.8 248.2 64.1 15 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Ecolatina 170.2 60.0 256.3 92.5
Econométrica 130.0 35.0 234.0 50.0
Econosignal 153.0 31.0 240.3 56.8
Econviews 175.0 59.0 248.4 88.9
EIU 124.2 36.5 223.2 48.8
EmergingMarketWatch 225.0 80.0 - -
EMFI 196.3 76.3 290.8 98.8
Empiria Consultores 137.6 41.1 229.8 60.3
Equilibra 175.0 75.0 237.0 108.0
Euromonitor Int. - - 255.0 83.4
FIEL 151.0 48.1 249.0 73.1
Fitch Ratings - - 294.7 156.5
Fitch Solutions 160.0 35.0 260.0 80.0
FMyA 189.3 80.3 265.1 53.6
FrontierView - - 261.0 66.8
Goldman Sachs 150.0 50.0 235.3 69.8
HSBC 130.0 25.0 204.6 53.4
Invecq Consulting 160.0 - 250.0 - 16 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Itaú Unibanco 160.0 60.0 - -
Julius Baer - - 339.5 79.9
Kiel Institute 132.0 28.0 227.0 47.0
LCG 170.9 - 243.2 -
MAP 162.5 45.8 246.7 69.4
MAPFRE Economics 275.0 115.0 288.5 130.0
Moody's Analytics 202.3 57.3 252.8 73.0
OJF & Asociados 146.2 30.8 236.9 56.7
Oxford Economics 160.5 59.6 250.2 85.0
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 242.5 78.0
Pezco Economics 114.6 66.2 163.0 90.4
Quantum Finanzas 110.7 9.9 241.0 30.0
S&P Global Ratings 215.0 60.0 275.0 105.0
Santander 155.6 48.0 - -
Standard Chartered - - 269.1 77.8
Torino Capital 140.5 - 188.0 -
UBS 150.3 67.8 212.1 83.3
VDC Consultora 200.0 60.0 281.4 101.0 17 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
Public Forecasts
IMF 149.4 45.0 249.8 59.6
OECD - - 208.1 71.2
United Nations* - - 139.4 44.9
Summary
Minimum 110.7 9.9 163.0 28.2
Maximum 275.0 186.8 339.5 156.5
Median 154.5 49.8 248.3 72.8
Consensus 161.6 53.1 247.4 74.4
History
30 days ago 173.0 55.5 256.9 77.9
60 days ago 190.0 58.0 272.3 83.0
90 days ago 214.7 58.0 287.7 89.5

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 27

 Argentina June 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

18 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABECEB 30.00 20.00
Analytica Consultora 40.00 -
Banco de Galicia 40.00 -
Banco Supervielle 35.00 -
BancTrust & Co. 25.00 11.00
BBVA Argentina 28.00 24.00
Eco Go 30.00 30.00
Ecolatina 30.00 23.00
Econosignal 40.00 10.00
EIU 30.00 30.00
Empiria Consultores 40.00 -
Equilibra 85.00 35.00
Fitch Solutions 50.00 20.00
Itaú Unibanco 40.00 40.00
LCG 102.00 -
MAP 60.00 30.00
20 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
OJF & Asociados 30.00 45.00
Quantum Finanzas 32.00 10.00
Santander 35.00 30.00
Summary
Minimum 25.00 10.00
Maximum 102.00 45.00
Median 35.00 27.00
Consensus 42.21 25.57
History
30 days ago 43.81 27.38
60 days ago 62.39 41.53
90 days ago 76.96 48.21

22 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Argentina report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the The Central Bank of the
Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República Argentina) and the National Statistical
Institute and the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la ciudad
autónoma de Buenos Aires). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop). Source: INDEC.

15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (aop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
18 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop). Source: BCRA.
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 28

 Argentina June 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABECEB 1,028 1,320
Analytica Consultora 1,268 -
Aurum Valores 1,100 1,650
Banco de Galicia 1,238 -
Banco Supervielle 1,018 2,309
BancTrust & Co. 1,271 1,377
Barclays Capital 1,500 1,902
BBVA Argentina 1,177 1,676
C&T Asesores 1,027 -
Capital Economics 1,600 2,500
Credicorp Capital 1,452 1,874
E2 Economia 1,450 2,297
Eco Go 1,028 1,382
Ecolatina 1,458 2,101
Econométrica 1,200 1,550
Econosignal 1,299 1,554
25 | ARS per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 26 | ARS per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Econviews 1,609 2,293
EIU 1,127 1,666
EMFI 1,510 2,121
Empiria Consultores 1,160 1,967
Equilibra 1,500 2,354
FIEL 1,345 1,702
Fitch Ratings 1,613 3,113
Fitch Solutions 1,200 1,400
FMyA 1,357 2,731
HSBC 1,200 -
Invecq Consulting 1,500 -
Itaú Unibanco 1,200 1,900
JPMorgan 1,500 -
LCG 1,812 -
MAP 1,453 2,137
MAPFRE Economics 1,548 2,546
OJF & Asociados 1,206 1,597
Oxford Economics 1,198 2,240
27 | ARS per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Pezco Economics 944.5 971.2
Quantum Finanzas 1,067 1,172
S&P Global Ratings 2,100 3,300
Santander 1,332 1,798
Standard Chartered 1,550 1,875
Torino Capital 946.3 -
UBS 1,350 1,900
VDC Consultora 1,465 2,109
Summary
Minimum 944.5 971.2
Maximum 2,100 3,300
Median 1,316 1,900
Consensus 1,331 1,953
History
30 days ago 1,396 2,085
60 days ago 1,549 2,258
90 days ago 1,702 2,425

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

23 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).

24 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 29

 Argentina June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 28 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 2.3 1.2 16.0 13.3
Analytica Consultora 2.1 - 18.5 -
Banco de Galicia -0.3 - 10.2 -
Banco Supervielle 1.5 -0.6 17.7 19.5
BancTrust & Co. 2.2 0.8 20.2 18.8
Barclays Capital 0.6 0.5 24.3 27.0
BBVA Argentina 0.4 -0.4 15.0 12.2
Capital Economics 1.8 1.5 - -
Credicorp Capital 0.6 1.0 - -
DekaBank 0.2 -0.8 - -
Eco Go 0.8 0.1 21.5 10.6
Ecolatina 0.8 -0.7 15.7 10.0
Econométrica 1.0 0.5 20.0 17.0
Econosignal 1.0 1.5 13.8 17.0
Econviews - - 17.7 18.0 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
EIU 0.0 -0.9 - -
EMFI -0.1 -0.1 13.6 12.5
Empiria Consultores 0.7 0.5 15.3 15.4
Equilibra 1.0 0.0 20.7 17.5
Euromonitor Int. -3.3 -3.1 14.7 8.4
FIEL -0.8 -0.7 14.5 11.2
Fitch Ratings 1.8 1.1 - -
Fitch Solutions 0.3 0.3 - -
FMyA -3.4 0.0 15.1 4.3
Goldman Sachs 0.5 0.1 - -
HSBC 0.3 0.1 16.0 16.3
Invecq Consulting 2.5 - 16.0 -
LCG 1.0 - 20.5 -
MAP 0.6 0.4 16.8 15.8
MAPFRE Economics 0.9 1.7 - -
Moody's Analytics 0.3 0.2 - -
OJF & Asociados 1.3 0.9 21.2 15.0
Oxford Economics 1.2 1.7 - - 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Pezco Economics 1.2 0.5 14.0 15.5
Quantum Finanzas 2.0 -1.3 10.0 4.0
Standard Chartered 0.5 0.4 - -
Torino Capital 0.2 - - -
UBS 1.0 0.2 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF 0.9 0.9 - -
OECD 0.1 1.1 - -
World Bank 0.9 0.9 - -
Summary
Minimum -3.4 -3.1 10.0 4.0
Maximum 2.5 1.7 24.3 27.0
Median 0.8 0.4 16.0 15.4
Consensus 0.7 0.3 17.1 15.0
History
30 days ago 0.6 0.4 16.3 15.3
60 days ago 0.7 0.5 16.9 14.2
90 days ago 0.8 0.5 16.7 14.7 31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.

29 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions.
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 30

 Argentina June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 32 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 80.7 85.2 64.7 71.9
Analytica Consultora 76.7 - 58.3 -
Banco de Galicia 73.7 - 63.5 -
Banco Supervielle 77.4 80.0 59.7 60.5
BancTrust & Co. 76.5 81.4 56.3 62.6
Barclays Capital 81.0 92.0 56.7 65.0
BBVA Argentina 80.9 84.0 65.9 71.8
Eco Go 84.0 88.2 62.5 77.6
Ecolatina 78.5 82.3 62.8 72.3
Econométrica 83.0 90.0 63.0 73.0
Econosignal 78.6 84.0 64.8 67.0
Econviews 79.6 85.9 61.9 68.0
EIU 80.2 83.2 - -
EMFI 70.0 72.1 56.5 59.6
Empiria Consultores 74.0 81.6 58.7 66.2 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Equilibra 81.0 84.0 60.3 66.5
Euromonitor Int. 78.4 85.3 63.7 76.9
FIEL 75.7 80.4 61.2 69.2
Fitch Ratings 90.7 97.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 60.4 96.8 - -
FMyA 78.0 78.0 62.9 73.7
Goldman Sachs 81.8 86.3 - -
HSBC 73.9 79.0 57.9 62.7
Invecq Consulting 78.0 - 62.0 -
LCG 81.3 - 60.8 -
MAP 79.9 85.3 63.1 69.5
OJF & Asociados 83.6 89.8 62.4 74.8
Oxford Economics 69.6 68.9 - -
Pezco Economics 78.2 82.8 64.1 67.3
Quantum Finanzas 83.0 90.0 73.0 86.0
Torino Capital 93.0 - - -
UBS 85.9 91.1 - -
Public Forecasts 34 | Imports | variation in %
IMF* 79.3 84.2 57.6 62.0
Summary
Minimum 60.4 68.9 56.3 59.6
Maximum 93.0 97.9 73.0 86.0
Median 79.1 84.0 62.4 69.2
Consensus 79.0 84.6 61.9 69.6
History
30 days ago 79.5 84.9 63.2 69.6
60 days ago 80.9 85.9 64.0 71.8
90 days ago 81.2 85.7 64.5 71.1

35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Exports, annual variation in %.

33 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Imports, annual variation in %.
35 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 31

 Argentina June 2024

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABECEB 27.8 33.0 - -
Banco de Galicia 33.9 - - -
Banco Supervielle 31.7 43.2 - -
BancTrust & Co. 36.7 45.7 - -
Barclays Capital 34.0 36.7 283 291
Credicorp Capital 32.9 43.4 - -
Eco Go 34.0 42.0 - -
Econométrica 35.0 45.0 285 285
Econviews 36.4 44.0 - -
EIU 34.1 42.2 - -
Equilibra 34.0 40.5 - -
Euromonitor Int. 28.9 31.1 - -
FIEL 31.5 39.2 288 302
Fitch Ratings 36.4 45.2 - -
Fitch Solutions 33.5 34.5 285 301 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
FMyA 31.1 31.1 - -
Goldman Sachs 30.0 35.0 - -
LCG 33.0 - - -
MAP 33.1 45.3 279 282
Moody's Analytics 36.9 47.1 - -
OJF & Asociados 32.9 39.3 - -
Oxford Economics - - 256 253
Quantum Finanzas 33.0 36.0 - -
Torino Capital 34.5 - 282 -
UBS 32.0 37.0 276 276
Public Forecasts
IMF* 30.1 36.1 277 280
Summary
Minimum 27.8 31.1 256 253
Maximum 36.9 47.1 288 302
Median 33.3 40.5 282 285
Consensus 33.2 39.8 279 284
History 38 | External Debt | % of GDP
30 days ago 32.6 38.6 279 282
60 days ago 32.8 38.7 282 286
90 days ago 32.1 38.8 285 293

39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 International reserves, months of imports.

37 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 External debt as % of GDP.
39 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 32

 Argentina June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Argentina in the Region

Official Name Argentine Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital Buenos Aires (15.1 m)
Other cities Córdoba (1.6 m)
Rosario (1.4 m)
Area (km2) 2,780,400
Population (million, 2024 est.) 47
Population density (per km2, 2024) 16.9
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.79
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 78.8
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 99
Language Spanish
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-3

Economic infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2020)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 15 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 130
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 87
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 21

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,399
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,447
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 145
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 128
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 661
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 706
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 185

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 756
Railways (km): 17,866
Roadways (km): 240,000 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 11,000
Primary markets | share in %
Bahia Blanca, Buenos Aires, La Plata,
Chief ports:
Punta Colorada, Ushuaia

Political Data
Head of State: Javier Gerardo Milei
Head of Government: Javier Gerardo Milei
Exports Imports
Last Elections: 19 November 2023
Next Elections: 2027
Central Bank Governor Santiago Bausili

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook Primary products | share in %

Moody's Ca Stable
S&P Global Ratings CCC Stable
Fitch Ratings C -

Strengths Weaknesses
• Rich in natural resources • Weak fiscal metrics Exports Imports
• Large producer of agricultural • External debt repayment risks
commodities • Runaway inflation
• Diversified industrial base • Currency volatility
• Current policy shift to market- • Policy uncertainty
friendly policies • Highly-taxed country
• IMF financial support

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 33

 Brazil June 2024

Brazil
Monentum to wane in 2024
Economic overview: The economy fired up all cylinders in Q1, when
GDP rebounded quarter on quarter, posting the strongest expansion since
Q2 2023 and largely meeting market expectations. The upturn reflected
stronger readings for private consumption, fixed investment and exports. In
Q2, our Consenus is that GDP growth will tick down in sequential terms;
that said, available data is optimistic. Both the manufacturing and services
PMIs averaged above Q1 in April–May, reflecting sound improvements in the
sectors’ operating contidions. Moreover, private consumption should have
been robust; in April, wage growth outpaced inflation, cementing the recovery
in purchasing power. That said, unprecedented recent floods in Rio Grande
Marta Casanovas do Sul—a rice growing region—will likely limit momentum. In other news,
Economist in June, the government said it would remove some USD 5.5 billion in tax
breaks for companies, improving fiscal health while hitting competitiveness.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to slow from 2023 this
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 year. Both private consumption and exports growth will weaken, with the
GDP growth (%): 1.5 2.3 2.1 latter slowing to roughly a third of 2023’s rate. Factors to watch include
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.4 -7.4 -5.6
Public Debt (% of GDP): 78.6 77.2 83.8
changes in the government’s fiscal stance, plus October’s local elections
Inflation (%): 6.9 4.1 3.5 and their impact on reforms. Extreme weather events are a downside risk.
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.4 -1.6 -1.9
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2024, which is
unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 2.0% in 2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Inflation: In April, inflation cooled to 3.7% (March: 3.9%), marginally less
than markets anticipated, while core inflation fell to a three-year low of 3.8%
(March: 4.3%); both metrics moved closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank
of Brazil (BCB)’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance band. Inflation will slow from 2023 this
year but remain above the mid-point of the BCB’s target. FocusEconomics
panelists see consumer prices rising 4.0% on average in 2024, which is
unchanged from one month ago, and rising 3.6% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: On 8 May, the BCB dialed down the pace of its loosening
cycle, cutting the benchmark SELIC rate by 25 basis points to 10.50%. The
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
move had largely been anticipated by markets, despite the BCB deviating
from its prior forward guidance of a 50 basis point cut. The next meeting is
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
set for 18–19 June. Our panelists see 0–150 basis points of further cuts this
year. FocusEconomics panelists see the SELIC rate ending 2024 at 9.83%
and ending 2025 at 9.04%.

Currency: The real traded at BRL 5.28 per USD on 7 June, depreciating
4.4% month on month. May’s unprecedented floods weighed on the real.
Our panelists expect the currency to appreciate from current levels by end-
2024; Brazil’s fiscal performance is a factor to monitor. FocusEconomics
panelists see the real ending 2024 at BRL 5.05 per USD and ending 2025
at BRL 5.10 per USD.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 34

 Brazil June 2024

REAL SECTOR | Activity shifts into higher gear in Q1

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: The Brazilian economy fired on all cylinders in the first three
months of 2024, following a sluggish H2 2023 performance. GDP rebounded,
increasing 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first
quarter, above the downwardly revised 0.1% contraction logged in the fourth
quarter of last year.

On an annual basis, economic growth sped up to 2.5% in Q1, following the

previous period’s 2.1% increase. Both the quarterly and annual improvements
were the best results since Q2 2023; the former was largely in line with
analysts’ expectations, while the latter overshot them.

Drivers: The quarterly upturn reflected improvements in private consumption,

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on- fixed investment and exports. Domestically, private consumption bounced
year variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
back, growing 1.5% seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter in the first quarter
Consensus Forecast. (Q4 2023: -0.3% s.a. qoq), which marked the best reading since Q2 2022;
wage growth caught up with inflation in Q1, supporting purchasing power.
Moreover, fixed investment growth picked up to 4.1% in Q1, from the 0.5%
increase logged in the prior quarter, likely reflecting the beginning of the
positive impact of lower interest rates. Less positively, government spending
decelerated in Q1 and flatlined (Q4 2023: +0.9% s.a. qoq).

Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services increased 0.2%
on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the first quarter, which was above
the fourth quarter’s flat reading. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services
growth picked up to 6.5% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +1.4% s.a. qoq).

GDP outlook: GDP growth is likely to cool ahead, partly due to Q1’s unusually
strong result and partly due to the fallout from the devastating floods that
struck Rio Grande do Sul—Brazil’s largest rice-producing region—in May;
higher food prices will likely cap private spending. That said, government
spending will likely increase amid recovery efforts.

Meanwhile, looking at the monetary policy outlook, the likely spike in food
prices following the floods, along with Q1’s robust private consumption outturn,
might prompt the Central Bank to take a more cautious approach ahead and
lead it to temporarily pause its loosening cycle at its next meeting on 18–19
June—though our Consensus is still for another 25 basis points cut.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in

2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 2.0% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity drops at sharpest rate since August

2023 in March
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % Latest reading: The economy stumbled at the end of the first quarter of 2024:
Economic activity declined 0.3% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms
in March (February: +0.3% mom). The downturn marked the worst reading
since August 2023 and surprised markets slightly to the downside.

On an annual basis, economic activity fell 2.2% in March (February: +2.5%

yoy), the worst result since October 2020. Accordingly, annual average
economic activity growth fell to 1.7% in March (February: +2.4%), pointing to
a worsening trend.

Services output rebounded in March, tallying a 0.4% month-on-month

seasonally adjusted expansion, improving from February’s unexpected 0.9%
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de
fall.
Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and year-on-year changes in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 35

 Brazil June 2024

Meanwhile, retail sales flatlined in March, slowing from February’s 1.0%

month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase. Conversely, in the same
month, industrial output growth accelerated to 0.9% in month-on-month
seasonally adjusted terms (February: +0.1% mom). In April, industrial output
deteriorated and fell 0.5% month on month.

REAL SECTOR | Services PMI rises to near two-year high in May

Services Purchasing Managers’ Index Latest reading: The S&P Global Brazil Services Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) rose to a 22-month high of 55.3 in May from 53.7 in April. As
a result, the index moved further above the 50.0 no-change threshold, and
signaled a faster improvement in services-sector business activity compared
to the previous month.

May’s upturn reflected a marked increase in new orders, which have been
supported by demand strength, rising customer numbers, and local events.
This surge in new business, the fastest in 22 months, spurred job creation,
with employment expanding at the joint-fastest pace since October 2022.

Regarding prices, the report highlighted another sharp increase in operating

Note: S&P Global Brazil Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading expenses, attributed to higher fuel, material, rent, and wage costs. Despite
above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous month, while a
value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
these cost pressures, charge inflation moderated to an eight-month low.
Source: S&P Global. Lastly, business confidence rebounded and hit a nine-month high, reflecting
an optimistic outlook for the service sector’s growth prospects.

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing-sector conditions improve at softer

pace in May
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Latest reading: The S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) fell to 52.1 in May from 55.9 in April. As a result, the index remained
above the 50.0 no-change threshold but signaled a softer improvement in
manufacturing-sector operating conditions compared to the previous month.

May’s decline was primarily due to a steep slowdown in demand growth,

which resulted in factory production nearly stagnating. Devastating floods in
the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, business closures and a general
retrenchment in demand were behind the moderation. More positively, new
orders increased slightly due to successful advertising and the launch of new
products—although international sales faced subdued demand—and the job
creation rate hit a near three-year high.
Note: S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
A reading above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous Turning to prices, input costs rose at the fastest rate in 21 months due to
month, while a value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
Source: S&P Global. higher commodity prices, currency weakness and increased freight rates.
That said, the pass-through to selling prices was moderated by competitive
pressures, resulting in a softer rate of charge inflation. Lastly, business
sentiment weakened mildly, hurt by concerns over the impact of flooding, input
distribution, customer orders and the fiscal budget.
Consumer and Business Confidence Indices
REAL SECTOR | Consumer and industrial business sentiment go their
opposite ways in May
Latest reading: The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index
published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) fell to
89.2 in May, down from April’s 93.2. May’s print was the lowest in 13 months.
As a result, the index moved further below the 100-point threshold, indicating
starker pessimism among Brazilian consumers.

Conversely, the seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index

improved to 98.0 in May, up from April’s 96.8 and hitting a 20-month high.
Accordingly, the index moved closer to, but remained below, the 100-point
Note: Consumer and industrial business confidence indexes (seasonally threshold, signaling only marginal pessimism among industrial firms.
adjusted). The 100-point threshold represents the point above which consumers
and industrial businesses expect economic conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas).

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 36

 Brazil June 2024

Outlook: The ongoing improvement in industrial business sentiment bodes

well for investment in the industrial sector in Q2. Conversely, more downbeat
consumer sentiment bodes poorly for the performance of private consumption
in the quarter.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account records smaller deficit in April

Current Account Balance | USD billion Latest reading: The current account recorded a USD 2.5 billion deficit in
April, improving from the USD 4.8 billion deficit recorded in March (April 2023:
USD 0.2 billion deficit). Meanwhile, the 12-month trailing current account
deficit widened, coming in at USD 35.3 billion in April (March: USD 33.0 billion
deficit).

The merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording
a USD 9.0 billion surplus in April (March 2024: USD 7.2 billion surplus).
Merchandise exports rebounded, jumping 14.1% over the same month last
year in April (March: -15.5% year-on-year). Similarly, merchandise imports
also rebounded, soaring 14.3% on an annual basis in April (March: -7.1%
yoy).
Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB).
Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the current account posting
a deficit of 1.6% of GDP in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from
one month ago, and posting a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 37

 Brazil June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 208 209 210
GDP per Capita (USD) 9,363 7,347 8,266 9,615 10,640 11,111 11,718 12,295 12,976 13,734
GDP (USD bn) 1,873 1,477 1,670 1,952 2,173 2,282 2,419 2,552 2,707 2,880
GDP (BRL bn) 7,389 7,610 9,012 10,080 10,856 11,479 12,314 13,146 13,866 14,644
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.5 3.0 18.4 11.8 7.7 5.7 7.3 6.8 5.5 5.6
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 1.2 -3.3 4.8 3.0 2.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 -4.6 3.0 4.1 3.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.5 -3.7 4.2 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.0 -1.7 12.9 1.1 -3.0 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.6 -2.3 4.4 5.7 9.1 2.6 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.3 -9.5 13.8 1.0 -1.2 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.1 -4.6 4.2 -0.7 0.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.6 2.1 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 12.1 13.5 13.5 9.5 8.0 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.8 -13.3 -4.3 -4.6 -8.9 -7.1 -6.3 -5.8 -5.6 -5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 74.4 86.9 77.3 71.7 74.4 77.3 80.0 81.9 84.0 85.3
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.7 29.0 8.1 18.2 15.7 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.3 4.5 10.1 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.7 3.2 8.3 9.3 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.0 16.7 36.4 11.7 -5.8 - - - - -
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 4.50 2.00 9.25 13.75 11.75 9.83 9.04 8.74 8.72 8.52
Interbank Deposit Overnight Rate (%, eop) 4.40 1.90 9.15 13.65 11.65 10.06 9.15 8.78 8.57 8.57
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.78 6.90 10.83 12.66 10.36 10.59 10.04 10.24 - -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 4.02 5.19 5.57 5.28 4.86 5.05 5.10 5.16 5.17 5.19
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.95 5.15 5.40 5.16 5.00 5.03 5.09 5.15 5.12 5.08
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -68.0 -28.2 -46.4 -48.3 -30.8 -36.3 -45.4 -47.0 -50.5 -53.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.6 -1.9 -2.8 -2.5 -1.4 -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 35.2 50.4 61.4 61.5 98.9 87.3 82.8 85.8 91.7 100.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 221 209 281 334 340 341 354 373 389 435
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 186 159 219 273 241 254 272 287 298 334
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.6 -5.4 34.2 19.0 1.7 0.4 3.9 5.3 4.4 11.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 0.3 -14.6 38.2 24.2 -11.7 5.4 7.0 5.8 3.6 12.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 69.2 38.3 46.4 74.6 64.2 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 357 356 362 325 355 363 372 382 394 422
International Reserves (months of imports) 23.0 26.9 19.8 14.3 17.7 17.2 16.4 15.9 15.9 15.1
External Debt (USD bn) 323 311 325 320 342 341 346 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 17.2 21.0 19.5 16.4 15.7 14.9 14.3 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 2.0 2.1 2.5 1.5 1.9 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 2.3 4.4 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.8 -4.4 2.7 1.2 3.1 2.9 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.0 7.3 6.5 2.2 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -6.1 -0.9 10.2 1.9 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.8 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.6 4.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 12.75 11.75 10.75 10.30 10.09 9.98 9.78 9.54 9.28 9.14
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 11.67 10.36 11.07 11.29 10.97 10.83 10.66 10.34 10.15 9.97
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 5.01 4.86 5.01 5.08 5.06 5.06 5.05 5.09 5.12 5.13
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -1.9 -2.7 -0.9 -1.7 -2.1 -2.6 -1.3 -1.9 -2.3
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom s.a. var. %) -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.3 - -
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %) 1.3 0.3 1.6 2.3 1.3 3.3 2.5 -2.2 - -
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.2 -1.2 0.1 0.9 -0.5 -
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.2 -1.5 2.7 1.0 0.0 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.5 -
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 50.1 49.0 48.6 49.4 48.4 52.8 54.1 53.6 55.9 52.1
S&P Global Services PMI (50-threshold) 50.6 48.7 51.0 51.2 50.5 53.1 54.6 54.8 53.7 55.3
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 95.0 94.9 92.7 92.3 93.2 90.8 89.7 91.3 93.2 89.2
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.23 0.26 0.24 0.28 0.56 0.42 0.83 0.16 0.38 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.6 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 3.9 3.7 -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 4.95 5.01 5.04 4.93 4.86 4.94 4.97 5.01 5.18 5.26
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.0 -0.2 -0.5 -2.5 -7.8 -5.4 -4.6 -4.8 -2.5 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 38

 Brazil June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
4intelligence 1.7 2.1
Actinver 1.6 2.1
Allianz 1.7 1.9
Banco BMG 1.8 2.0
Banco BV 2.0 1.5
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 2.1 3.0
Barclays Capital 1.9 1.7
BNP Paribas 2.2 2.0
BTG Pactual 2.3 2.2
Capital Economics 1.3 1.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.0 1.5
Credicorp Capital 1.9 1.9
Credit Agricole 1.5 1.8
DekaBank 1.8 2.0
DIW Berlin 1.6 2.1
E2 Economia 1.8 2.0
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
EIU 2.0 2.1
EmergingMarketWatch 2.3 -
Euromonitor Int. 1.8 1.9
Fitch Ratings 1.7 2.1
Fitch Solutions 2.1 1.8
FrontierView 1.9 2.0
Goldman Sachs 2.1 2.0
HSBC 2.0 2.3
ifo Institute 0.7 2.3
Itaú Unibanco 2.3 1.8
JPMorgan 2.2 1.9
Julius Baer 1.5 2.0
KBC 2.0 2.0
Kiel Institute 1.7 2.0
Kínitro Capital 2.2 2.0
LCA Consultores 1.5 1.9
MAPFRE Economics 1.7 2.2
MB Associados 2.2 1.8
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Moody's Analytics 2.0 2.5
Oxford Economics 1.2 1.4
Pantheon Macroeconomics 2.2 1.7
Parallaxis Economia 1.8 2.0
Petros 2.3 1.5
Pezco Economics 2.3 2.5
Prometeia 0.9 1.8
Rabobank 2.2 2.0
S&P Global Ratings 1.8 2.0
Santander 2.0 2.0
Scotiabank 2.1 2.0
SEB 1.8 2.0
Société Générale 1.5 1.9
Standard Chartered 1.7 2.3
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.8 1.9
Torino Capital 2.3 -
UBS 2.2 2.3
Public Forecasts
IMF 2.2 2.1
World Bank 1.7 2.2
Notes and sources Others (3)** 2.1 2.3
Summary
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Minimum 0.7 1.4
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
Maximum 2.3 3.0
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. Median 1.9 2.0
Consensus 1.9 2.0
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional History
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography 30 days ago 1.9 2.0
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on
60 days ago 1.8 2.0
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
90 days ago 1.6 2.0
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 39

 Brazil June 2024

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 1.9 1.4 3.9 4.5
Banco BMG 1.8 - 2.5 -
Banco BV 2.9 2.5 3.7 3.0
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 2.3 3.0 1.5 5.0
Barclays Capital 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3
BTG Pactual 3.9 3.5 0.0 2.5
Capital Economics 1.6 1.4 0.1 1.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.0 2.3 3.6
Credicorp Capital 2.4 2.1 1.3 2.2
E2 Economia 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.0
EIU 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.0
Euromonitor Int. 1.9 1.8 - -
Fitch Solutions 2.8 1.5 2.0 4.0
FrontierView 2.0 2.4 - -
Goldman Sachs 3.2 2.3 4.7 2.7 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
HSBC 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.0
LCA Consultores 3.1 1.6 1.0 2.1
MAPFRE Economics -0.4 -0.6 2.6 6.0
MB Associados 2.7 2.0 3.1 3.2
Moody's Analytics 5.0 3.9 -2.1 3.2
Oxford Economics 0.9 -0.7 -0.2 6.4
Pezco Economics 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.3
Rabobank 2.1 2.0 1.0 2.3
S&P Global Ratings 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.2
Société Générale 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.8
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.8 1.9 2.3 3.9
Torino Capital 2.4 - 1.7 -
UBS 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.3
Public Forecasts
IMF* - - 0.6 1.2
OECD 2.3 2.2 0.7 1.6
World Bank 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.5
Summary 8 | Investment | variation in %
Minimum -0.4 -0.7 -2.1 1.3
Maximum 5.0 3.9 4.7 6.4
Median 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.6
Consensus 2.2 2.0 1.8 3.0
History
30 days ago 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.9
60 days ago 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9
90 days ago 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.8

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 40

 Brazil June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 2.9 2.8 7.9 7.8
Banco BMG 2.0 2.0 7.8 8.2
Banco BV - - 7.8 7.8
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 1.5 3.0 7.7 -
Barclays Capital 1.4 1.3 8.4 9.1
BTG Pactual 2.5 2.5 7.7 8.2
Capital Economics 1.0 2.0 8.2 8.1
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 7.2 7.0
Credicorp Capital - - 7.7 8.1
DIW Berlin - - 8.2 8.3
E2 Economia 1.3 0.9 - -
EIU 1.1 1.5 - -
Euromonitor Int. 2.0 1.9 8.0 8.0
Fitch Ratings - - 8.0 8.0
Fitch Solutions - - 7.8 8.5 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
FrontierView - - 8.5 8.6
HSBC 2.7 2.0 7.8 7.8
Itaú Unibanco - - 7.5 7.9
Kínitro Capital - - 7.7 8.0
LCA Consultores 2.2 2.1 7.4 7.3
MB Associados 2.1 1.5 7.5 7.5
Moody's Analytics 2.3 2.8 - -
Oxford Economics 2.6 1.3 7.7 8.6
Parallaxis Economia - - 7.9 7.8
Petros - - 7.6 7.6
Pezco Economics 1.7 1.2 7.3 7.2
Rabobank 1.3 1.6 7.8 8.1
S&P Global Ratings - - 8.7 8.6
Santander - - 7.3 7.3
Société Générale - - 8.1 8.0
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.5 2.5 7.1 7.3
Torino Capital - - 8.6 -
UBS 0.4 1.0 - - 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Public Forecasts
IMF - - 8.0 7.9
Summary
Minimum 0.4 0.9 7.1 7.0
Maximum 2.9 3.0 8.7 9.1
Median 2.0 1.9 7.8 8.0
Consensus 1.8 1.9 7.8 8.0
History
30 days ago 1.8 1.9 7.9 8.1
60 days ago 1.6 1.9 8.0 8.2
90 days ago 1.7 1.8 8.2 8.3

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 41

 Brazil June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Banco BMG -6.1 -5.4 76.9 78.5
Banco BV -7.7 -6.1 77.7 80.2
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. - - 78.2 80.6
Barclays Capital -6.9 -6.5 77.0 79.8
BNP Paribas -7.1 -6.9 77.0 80.0
BTG Pactual - - 77.2 80.1
Capital Economics -7.0 -6.0 77.5 80.0
Citigroup Global Mkts -7.2 -7.3 78.1 81.4
Credicorp Capital -7.1 -6.3 79.2 84.8
DekaBank -7.2 -6.7 - -
EIU -7.7 -6.9 78.3 82.7
Fitch Ratings -6.3 -5.7 77.3 79.3
Fitch Solutions -6.9 -6.4 76.9 79.7
Goldman Sachs -6.7 -6.3 77.5 80.0
HSBC -6.6 -6.3 76.6 77.4 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
Itaú Unibanco - - 77.2 80.6
LCA Consultores -7.1 -6.1 78.9 80.7
MAPFRE Economics -8.1 -6.4 - -
MB Associados -6.3 -5.6 78.2 82.0
Moody's Analytics - - 74.9 76.3
Oxford Economics -7.5 -7.5 80.0 82.6
Petros - - 77.3 80.9
Pezco Economics -8.7 -6.5 77.5 79.1
Rabobank -6.5 -6.0 77.5 80.1
Santander -7.0 -6.7 76.9 80.3
Société Générale -6.4 -5.8 75.1 76.1
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -7.5 -6.9 77.0 79.2
Torino Capital - - 73.4 -
UBS -7.9 -5.8 78.7 79.9
Public Forecasts
OECD -6.4 -6.1 - -
World Bank -7.1 -5.1 77.2 77.3
Summary 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Minimum -8.7 -7.5 73.4 76.1
Maximum -6.1 -5.1 80.0 84.8
Median -7.1 -6.3 77.3 80.0
Consensus -7.1 -6.3 77.3 80.0
History
30 days ago -7.1 -6.3 77.3 79.7
60 days ago -7.0 -6.2 77.4 79.8
90 days ago -7.1 -6.2 77.7 80.3

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt as % of GDP evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 42

 Brazil June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 3.9 4.0 - -
Actinver 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.7
Allianz - - 4.2 3.5
Banco BMG 4.0 3.6 4.1 3.7
Banco BV 4.0 3.5 - -
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 3.8 3.5 4.1 3.4
Barclays Capital 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.5
BNP Paribas - - 4.1 4.1
BTG Pactual 3.8 3.8 - -
Capital Economics 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.7
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.5
Credicorp Capital 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.6
Credit Agricole - - 3.8 3.5
DekaBank - - 4.1 3.4
DIW Berlin - - 3.4 3.0 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
E2 Economia 4.3 5.0 4.2 4.8
EIU 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.4
Euromonitor Int. - - 4.0 3.4
Fitch Ratings - - 4.3 3.7
Fitch Solutions 4.0 3.5 4.1 3.8
FrontierView - - 4.1 3.7
Goldman Sachs 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6
HSBC 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.1
ifo Institute - - 3.7 3.6
Itaú Unibanco 3.8 3.7 - -
Julius Baer - - 3.7 3.5
KBC - - 3.9 3.5
Kiel Institute 4.3 3.7 - -
Kínitro Capital 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0
LCA Consultores 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0
MAPFRE Economics 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.9
MB Associados 3.8 4.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.3 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 3.8 3.5
Parallaxis Economia 3.8 3.6 - -
Petros 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.8
Pezco Economics 4.0 4.0 - -
Prometeia - - 4.5 4.8
Rabobank 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.7
S&P Global Ratings 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.7
Santander 3.4 3.8 - -
Scotiabank 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.6
SEB 4.1 3.8 - -
Société Générale - - 4.2 3.6
Standard Chartered - - 4.1 3.5
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 3.8 3.6 - -
Torino Capital 3.8 - 3.9 -
UBS 3.1 3.0 3.6 2.9
Public Forecasts
IMF 3.8 3.0 4.1 3.0 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
OECD - - 4.0 3.3
United Nations* - - 4.2 3.5
World Bank - - 3.9 3.7
Summary
Minimum 3.1 3.0 3.4 2.9
Maximum 4.3 5.0 4.5 4.8
Median 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.6
Consensus 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.6
History
30 days ago 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.6
60 days ago 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.7
90 days ago 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.6

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 43

 Brazil June 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
4intelligence 10.25 7.50
Actinver 9.00 8.50
Banco BMG 10.25 9.00
Banco BV 9.00 8.50
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 10.00 9.00
Barclays Capital 9.50 8.50
BTG Pactual 10.25 9.50
Capital Economics 9.75 9.00
Citigroup Global Mkts 10.25 10.25
Credicorp Capital 9.75 8.75
Credit Agricole 9.25 8.50
E2 Economia 10.00 10.00
EIU 10.00 9.00
Fitch Solutions 9.50 8.50
Goldman Sachs 9.75 9.00
HSBC 10.00 9.00
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
Itaú Unibanco 10.25 10.25
JPMorgan 10.50 -
Kínitro Capital 10.50 9.50
LCA Consultores 10.25 9.00
MAPFRE Economics 9.50 8.50
MB Associados 10.00 10.50
Oxford Economics 9.75 9.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 9.00 8.00
Parallaxis Economia 10.00 9.50
Petros 10.25 9.00
Pezco Economics 10.50 9.00
Rabobank 9.75 9.75
S&P Global Ratings 9.75 9.00
Santander 9.75 9.00
Scotiabank 10.25 9.25
Société Générale 9.25 -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 10.00 9.50
Torino Capital 9.00 -
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution
UBS 9.25 8.00
Summary
Minimum 9.00 7.50
Maximum 10.50 10.50
Median 10.00 9.00
Consensus 9.83 9.04
History
30 days ago 9.52 8.92
60 days ago 9.13 8.69
90 days ago 9.03 8.61

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Brazil report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 44

 Brazil June 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
4intelligence 5.00 4.95
Actinver 4.99 5.11
Banco BMG 5.00 5.10
Banco BV 5.30 5.30
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 4.95 4.95
Barclays Capital 4.90 4.80
BTG Pactual 5.00 5.10
Capital Economics 5.20 5.30
Citigroup Global Mkts 5.07 5.01
Credicorp Capital 5.05 5.05
Credit Agricole 5.10 5.25
E2 Economia 5.00 5.00
EIU 5.09 5.08
Fitch Ratings 5.10 5.20
Fitch Solutions 5.00 4.80
HSBC 4.95 -
29 | BRL per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | BRL per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Itaú Unibanco 5.15 5.25
JPMorgan 5.10 -
Julius Baer 4.91 5.06
Kínitro Capital 5.15 5.10
LCA Consultores 5.10 5.00
MAPFRE Economics 5.07 5.16
MB Associados 5.10 5.10
Moody's Analytics 5.04 5.10
Oxford Economics 5.19 5.26
Petros 5.20 5.30
Pezco Economics 5.05 5.27
Rabobank 5.05 5.15
S&P Global Ratings 5.00 5.10
Santander 5.00 5.05
Scotiabank 5.05 5.07
Société Générale 4.60 4.96
Standard Chartered 4.90 5.00
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 5.15 5.30
31 | BRL per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Torino Capital 5.30 -
UBS 5.00 5.05
Summary
Minimum 4.60 4.80
Maximum 5.30 5.30
Median 5.05 5.10
Consensus 5.05 5.10
History
30 days ago 5.04 5.09
60 days ago 4.99 5.07
90 days ago 4.99 5.07

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 45

 Brazil June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence -1.5 -1.6 - -
Banco BMG -1.4 -1.8 85.5 83.9
Banco BV -1.9 -1.9 85.4 93.9
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -1.4 -1.6 - -
Barclays Capital -1.3 -1.3 - -
BNP Paribas -0.7 -1.3 - -
BTG Pactual -1.5 -1.0 - -
Capital Economics -1.8 -2.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.6 -2.0 - -
Credicorp Capital -1.6 -1.6 - -
Credit Agricole -1.7 -2.0 - -
DekaBank -1.5 -2.1 - -
EIU -1.4 -1.7 - -
Euromonitor Int. -2.3 -2.9 81.6 65.0
Fitch Ratings -1.7 -1.8 - - 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Fitch Solutions -1.6 -1.6 - -
Goldman Sachs -1.6 -1.7 - -
HSBC -1.2 -1.7 - -
Itaú Unibanco -1.3 -1.8 85.1 70.0
Kínitro Capital -1.3 -1.5 - -
LCA Consultores -1.3 -2.1 88.7 70.0
MAPFRE Economics -1.5 -1.8 - -
MB Associados -0.7 -1.0 82.9 88.0
Moody's Analytics -2.8 -5.9 - -
Oxford Economics -2.1 -1.7 - -
Pezco Economics -1.5 -1.5 102.7 109.9
Rabobank -1.7 -1.8 86.0 77.3
Société Générale -1.5 -2.1 - -
Standard Chartered -1.5 -1.7 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -2.1 -2.0 85.0 80.1
Torino Capital -2.0 - - -
UBS -2.0 -2.2 90.2 89.9
Public Forecasts 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
IMF -1.4 -1.5 - -
OECD -1.5 -1.4 - -
World Bank -1.8 -2.1 - -
Summary
Minimum -2.8 -5.9 81.6 65.0
Maximum -0.7 -1.0 102.7 109.9
Median -1.5 -1.8 85.5 82.0
Consensus -1.6 -1.9 87.3 82.8
History
30 days ago -1.5 -1.8 86.4 81.6
60 days ago -1.5 -1.9 86.9 81.7
90 days ago -1.6 -1.9 84.3 78.3

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior).
See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 46

 Brazil June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Banco BMG 350 371 264 287
Banco BV 340 359 254 265
Euromonitor Int. 344 357 262 292
Itaú Unibanco 340 348 255 278
LCA Consultores 335 330 247 260
MB Associados 320 349 237 261
Pezco Economics 373 400 270 290
Rabobank 347 355 261 277
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 317 319 232 239
UBS 346 356 256 266
Public Forecasts
IMF* 343 349 296 302
Summary
Minimum 317 319 232 239
Maximum 373 400 270 292 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Median 342 355 256 272
Consensus 341 354 254 272
History
30 days ago 340 350 254 268
60 days ago 341 350 254 268
90 days ago 340 350 256 271

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC,
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 47

 Brazil June 2024

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
4intelligence 380 391 - -
Banco BMG 360 360 - -
Banco BV 355 355 - -
Barclays Capital 381 402 - -
BNP Paribas 348 350 - -
BTG Pactual 345 345 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 355 355 - -
Credicorp Capital 357 365 - -
Euromonitor Int. 375 401 - -
Fitch Ratings 360 364 - -
Fitch Solutions 369 386 - -
Goldman Sachs 355 342 - -
LCA Consultores 364 372 350 357
MB Associados 362 363 330 336
Moody's Analytics 371 424 - - 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Pezco Economics 380 400 - -
Rabobank 362 371 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 364 371 - -
Torino Capital - - 343 -
UBS 355 355 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF* 346 346 - -
Summary
Minimum 345 342 330 336
Maximum 381 424 350 357
Median 362 365 343 346
Consensus 363 372 341 346
History
30 days ago 364 372 341 346
60 days ago 363 373 340 345
90 days ago 362 371 344 363

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | USD bn

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

40 International reserves, months of imports.

41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, USD billion.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 48

 Brazil June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Brazil in the Region

Official Name Federative Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Brazil
Capital Brasilia (4.5m)
Other cities Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
Area (km2) 8,515,770
Population (million, 2024 est.) 220
Population density (per km2, 2024) 25.8
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.61
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 76.3
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 94.7
Language Portuguese
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-2 to GMT-4

Economic infrastructure Economic Structure

Telecommunication (2020) GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 13
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 102
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 81
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 17

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 10,824
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 10,766
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 674
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 583
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2,923
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,027
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 517

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 4,919
Railways (km): 29,849.9 Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 2 million
Primary markets | share in %
Waterways (km): 50,000
Belem, Itajai, Paranagua, Rio Grande, Rio
Chief ports: de Janeiro, Santos, Sao Sebastiao,
Tubarao

Political Data
Exports Imports
Head of State: Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva
Head of Government: Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva
Last Elections: 2 October 2022
Next Elections: 4 October 2026
Central Bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Primary products | share in %

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody's Ba2 Positive
S&P Global Ratings BB Stable
Fitch Ratings BB Stable

Exports Imports
Strengths Weaknesses
• Commitment to economic • Pronounced socio-economic
orthodoxy inequalities
• Large domestic market and • Inadequate infrastructure creates
diversified production bottleneck for economic growth
• Strong foreign direct investment • Limited progress on privatization
flows bolster capital account and deregulation

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 49

 Chile June 2024

Chile
GDP growth to beat regional average in 2024
Economic overview: Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rose to 1.9% in Q1
from 0.1% in the previous quarter, aligning with market expectations and
reaching a two-year high. The economy was boosted by lower inflation and
interest rates, as well as increased copper production due to a new processing
plant and improved ore grades. Looking at expenditure components, the
acceleration reflected improved readings for private consumption, public
spending, fixed investment and exports. Our panelists see economic activity
decelerating in Q2 on a sequential basis following Q1’s above-trend reading.
This prediction is supported by data so far in the quarter: Economic activity fell
0.3% month on month in April, though the reading beat market expectations.
Oliver Reynolds More positively, prices for copper—Chile’s top export—reached record highs
Economist in May, boding well for the fiscal balance, exports and mining investment.

GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for Chile to grow faster than the Latin
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages American average this year. Private consumption will benefit from interest rate
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 cuts and lower inflation, while copper output should rebound, thanks partly to
GDP growth (%): 2.4 1.6 2.5 the recent Quebrada Blanca mine expansion. The government’s proposals to
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.6 -2.2 -1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP): 35.4 40.4 40.4
lift pensions and taxes are a key factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists
Inflation (%): 6.4 4.8 3.0 see GDP expanding 2.3% in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago,
Current Account (% of GDP): -6.0 -3.4 -3.5
and expanding 2.3% in 2025.

Inflation: Inflation rose to 4.1% in May from April’s 4.0%, slightly above the
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range, due to an acceleration in transport
price pressures. Inflation is forecast to average in the upper part of the
Bank’s target range for the rest of this year, with a rise in electricity tariffs
in H2 expected to add some upward pressure. FocusEconomics panelists
see consumer prices rising 3.7% on average in 2024, which is up by 0.1
percentage points from one month ago, and rising 3.1% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: On May 23, the Central Bank reduced the monetary policy
rate by 50 basis points to 6.00%, accumulating a total reduction of 475 basis
points since mid-2023. This decision was prompted by declining core inflation
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
and well-anchored inflation expectations. Our panelists anticipate additional
cuts of between 50 and 200 basis points by end-2024. FocusEconomics
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2024 at 4.75% and ending
2025 at 4.23%.

Currency: The peso traded at CLP 917 per USD on 7 June, appreciating 2.2%
month on month. Record-high prices for copper boosted the peso in recent
weeks. Our panelists expect the CLP to be broadly stable from its current
level by end-2024, though the currency will remain vulnerable to changes in
the Fed’s policy stance and copper price swings. FocusEconomics panelists
see the peso ending 2024 at CLP 905 per USD and ending 2025 at CLP 881
per USD.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 50

 Chile June 2024

REAL SECTOR | GDP growth records best reading since Q4 2021 in Q1

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted
quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter, up from 0.1% in the fourth quarter
of last year and broadly in line with market expectations. Q1’s reading marked
an over two-year high. On an annual basis, economic growth gathered traction,
accelerating to 2.3% in Q1 from the previous quarter’s 0.4% growth. In Q1, the
economy benefited from lower inflation and interest rates, and higher copper
output thanks to a new processing plant and better ore grades.

Drivers: The quarter-on-quarter upturn reflected broad-based improvements

in private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports.
Household spending picked up to 1.1% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-
quarter in the first quarter, which marked the best reading since Q4 2021 (Q4
Note: Year-on-year and seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes of GDP 2023: +0.4% s.a. qoq). Government consumption rose 4.7% in the first quarter,
in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. up from the fourth quarter’s flat reading. Fixed investment dropped at a softer
pace of 0.1% in Q1, following the 3.4% decrease recorded in the prior quarter.
Exports of goods and services increased 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted
quarterly basis in the first quarter, which contrasted the fourth quarter’s 0.8%
contraction. In addition, imports of goods and services bounced back, growing
2.1% in Q1 (Q4 2023: -2.2% s.a. qoq).

GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to slow

in Q2 from Q1’s above-trend pace, though underlying momentum will continue
to be supported by loosening financial conditions.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented:

“Risks to our GDP growth forecasts are tilted to the upside, as copper prices
have risen sharply in recent weeks. If the rally lasts and represents a new
price level for the metal, it may spur greater than expected investment in the
mining sector aimed at increasing the productivity of existing mines quickly,
boosting GDP growth this year and next.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.3% in

2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 2.3% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity expands year on year in April, but

shrinks month on month
Economic Activity | variation in % Latest reading: Economic activity expanded 3.5% compared to the same
month of the previous year in April, which was above March’s 0.5% increase.
Looking at the details of the release, the mining sector weakened in April,
while the non-mining sector accelerated, led by a rebound in commercial
activity. Overall economic activity growth was flattered by the fact that April
2024 had three more business days than April 2023.

On a monthly basis, economic activity dropped 0.3% in seasonally adjusted

terms in April, a smaller decrease than March’s 0.6% fall and smaller than
markets were expecting. Meanwhile, annual average economic activity growth
rose to 1.0% in April (March: +0.7%).

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month growth rate in %. Outlook: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to slow in Q2 in quarter-on-
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh). quarter terms, after bumper growth in Q1, and April’s month-on-month fall in
economic activity underpins this view.

Panelist insight: On the outlook for 2024 as a whole, Itaú Unibanco analysts
said:

“We expect lower average inflation, falling interest rates, and a positive
external backdrop to support the recovery of economic activity this year. We

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 51

 Chile June 2024

have an upside bias to our 2.4% GDP call for 2024. Recovering mining will
also play a key role behind the improvement from the 0.2% last year. With the
output gap near closed and medium-term inflation expectations anchored to
the 3% target, the central bank will continue to cut its policy rate.”

REAL SECTOR | Business confidence improves in May

Business Confidence Latest reading: Business confidence came in at 45.3 in May, up from April’s
44.1 and marking a two-year high. However, the index remained below the
50-point threshold, indicating pessimism among businesses.

May’s rise was driven by improved sentiment in the construction and industrial
sectors, as sentiment in the retail and mining sectors ebbed slightly.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see fixed investment contracting

0.6% in 2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago,
and expanding 3.0% in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation increases in May

Latest reading: Inflation came in at 4.1% in May, up from April’s 4.0%
Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza
Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate and slightly above the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range. Looking at
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE. the details of the release, the change in prices for food and non-alcoholic
beverages was broadly stable in May, while prices for housing, utilities and
fuel grew at a softer rate and transportation prices accelerated notably.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
Annual average inflation fell to 4.8% in May (April: 5.2%). Meanwhile, core
inflation rose to 3.3% in May, from April’s 3.2%.

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.27% from the previous month in May, below
April’s 0.53% rise but above market expectations.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

3.7% on average in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 3.1% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank of Chile decreases rates in May

Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 23 May, the Central Bank of Chile
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE). decided to lower the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to
6.00%, in line with market expectations and taking total rate cuts to 475 basis
points since mid-2023.
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
Monetary policy drivers: The decision to continue to cut interest rates
was driven by declining core inflation in recent months, both headline and
core inflation being within the 2.0%-4.0% target range, and two-year-ahead
inflation expectations which were well anchored at the midpoint of the target
range.

Policy outlook: The Central Bank of Chile indicated that it plans further cuts
to the MPR in the future, with the magnitude and timing of these reductions
depending on the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its implications
for the inflation trajectory. Our panelists see between 50 and 200 extra basis
points of cuts by end-2024.
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCH).
Panelist insight: Giving their take on the outlook, EIU analysts said:

“We expect the BCCh to reduce the policy rate to 4.5% by end 2024 and to
conclude the easing cycle in mid-2025, at 4% (which it considers the neutral
rate). The rate will then remain at that level for the rest of the forecast period.”

Itaú Unibanco analysts are more hawkish:

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 52

 Chile June 2024

“We envisage a year-end rate of 5.25%, with cuts of 25 bps as of June (a

slightly slower pace than previously incorporated). Risks tilt to fewer cuts.
During 2025, as the Fed embarks on policy easing, we see the BCCh resuming
its cutting cycle and taking the policy rate to 4.5%.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate

ending 2024 at 4.75% and ending 2025 at 4.23%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 53

 Chile June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 14,549 13,070 16,010 15,235 16,805 16,216 17,539 19,188 20,350 21,874
GDP (USD bn) 278 254 315 302 335 326 354 390 416 449
GDP (CLP bn) 195,532 201,258 239,562 263,843 281,870 304,891 315,832 334,878 367,386 397,138
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 2.9 19.0 10.1 6.8 8.2 3.6 6.0 9.7 8.1
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 0.6 -6.1 11.3 2.1 0.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.7 -7.4 21.0 1.6 -5.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.6 -3.5 14.1 6.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.5 -10.8 16.0 3.9 -1.1 -0.6 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.5 -0.9 -1.5 0.8 -0.3 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.7 -12.3 31.9 1.5 -12.0 3.1 3.7 3.2 3.1 3.2
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 0.7 -2.4 4.2 -4.6 -0.4 1.9 - - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.2 0.2 27.1 -3.5 -7.3 5.9 5.9 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.2 10.6 9.1 7.8 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -7.3 -7.7 1.1 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 28.6 32.3 36.5 37.5 38.9 40.8 41.5 40.7 40.5 39.9
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 9.4 6.1 10.7 4.0 5.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.0 3.0 7.2 12.8 3.9 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 3.0 4.5 11.6 7.6 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.9 6.9 26.9 19.3 -4.8 8.4 0.8 - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 1.75 0.50 4.00 11.25 8.25 4.75 4.23 4.32 4.33 4.20
Overnight Interbank Interest Rate (%, eop) 1.74 0.30 4.00 11.25 9.00 4.65 4.15 - - -
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.14 2.65 5.65 5.32 5.30 5.55 5.33 - - -
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 752 711 852 852 873 905 881 875 892 876
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 703 791 760 873 840 936 891 859 883 884
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -14.5 -5.0 -23.0 -26.2 -11.9 -10.9 -11.9 -13.3 -14.8 -15.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.2 -1.9 -7.3 -8.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.0 18.9 10.3 3.7 15.3 15.2 14.1 14.9 14.1 14.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 68.8 74.0 94.6 98.6 94.6 98.8 101.9 106.3 109.1 111.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 65.8 55.1 84.3 94.8 79.2 83.6 87.8 91.3 95.1 97.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -8.1 7.6 27.8 4.2 -4.1 4.5 3.2 4.3 2.7 2.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -6.6 -16.2 53.0 12.5 -16.4 5.5 5.1 4.0 4.1 2.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 14.4 10.8 13.2 19.8 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 40.7 39.2 51.3 39.2 46.4 46.8 48.8 50.8 52.5 52.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.4 8.5 7.3 5.0 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5
External Debt (USD bn) 198 208 235 230 241 243 255 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 71.4 82.0 74.7 76.1 71.8 74.5 71.9 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 0.6 0.4 2.3 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.4
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.9 0.1 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -4.4 -2.5 0.6 2.5 3.5 3.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.4 4.3 0.9 2.2 3.5 6.7 1.8 1.8 1.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -2.9 -5.7 -6.1 -2.9 -0.4 2.5 4.8 3.7 3.0 2.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.4 -1.2 3.2 1.2 2.7 2.7 - - - -
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -10.3 -8.1 1.6 0.8 6.7 3.1 - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.6 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 9.50 8.25 7.25 5.57 5.03 4.77 4.63 4.45 4.33 4.25
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.31 5.30 5.85 5.63 5.54 5.43 5.37 5.28 5.07 5.07
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 893 873 981 928 921 915 899 890 879 880
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.6 -4.4 -0.1 -3.5 -4.6 -3.6 -3.1 -3.5 -4.7 -3.9
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Copper Production (ann. var. %) 4.5 5.0 -4.4 -2.6 0.0 0.6 9.9 0.0 -1.5 -
Economic Activity (IMACEC, mom s.a. var. %) -0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 2.0 0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %) -0.6 0.3 1.0 1.0 -0.7 2.4 4.1 0.5 3.5 -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -0.3 -0.7 9.4 4.6 -2.0 6.5 8.9 -2.0 5.1 -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -10.0 -4.0 -6.7 -2.5 -1.5 1.8 4.0 1.0 3.6 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.5 -
Consumer Confidence (OECD) 96.4 96.3 96.2 96.3 96.5 96.8 96.9 96.9 96.5 -
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 43.2 43.4 43.9 42.7 35.7 43.7 44.9 46.3 44.1 45.3
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.11 0.67 0.45 0.74 -0.54 0.67 0.59 0.37 0.53 0.27
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 3.9 3.8 4.5 3.7 4.0 4.1
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 857 893 898 868 873 932 967 981 956 919
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -1.9 -9.0 -4.8 -3.8 -15.2 5.6 -0.7 -11.9 15.6 3.7

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 54

 Chile June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABIF 2.6 2.4
Actinver 1.8 2.3
AGPV 1.8 2.3
Allianz 1.7 2.8
Banchile Inversiones 2.8 2.2
Barclays Capital 2.5 0.8
BCI 2.6 1.6
BICE Inversiones 3.0 2.3
BNP Paribas 1.9 2.0
BTG Pactual 2.7 2.0
Capital Economics 2.8 2.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.9 2.5
Corficolombiana 2.7 -
Credicorp Capital 2.7 2.8
DekaBank 2.0 2.4
E2 Economia 2.5 2.1
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
EIU 2.8 2.1
EmergingMarketWatch 2.5 2.0
Euromonitor Int. 2.0 2.4
Fitch Ratings 1.8 2.3
Fitch Solutions 2.7 2.5
FrontierView 2.3 2.1
Fynsa 2.1 2.2
Gemines 2.7 2.4
Goldman Sachs 2.6 2.1
HSBC 2.0 2.4
Inversiones Security 2.0 -
Itaú Unibanco 2.4 2.0
JPMorgan 2.7 2.3
Julius Baer 1.8 3.1
Kiel Institute 2.5 2.1
LarrainVial Asset Management 2.5 1.9
Moody's Analytics 2.3 2.3
Oxford Economics 3.3 2.4
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Pantheon Macroeconomics 2.7 2.5
Pezco Economics 2.7 2.6
Rabobank 1.9 2.5
S&P Global Ratings 2.0 2.7
Santander 2.8 2.1
Scope Ratings 2.0 -
Scotiabank 3.0 2.5
Standard Chartered 1.8 2.5
Torino Capital 1.7 -
UBS 2.3 2.0
Public Forecasts
CAF 2.5 2.5
CEPAL 2.3 -
IMF 2.0 2.5
OECD 2.3 2.5
United Nations* 2.2 2.1
World Bank 2.0 2.2
Summary
Minimum 1.7 0.8
Maximum 3.3 3.1
Median 2.4 2.3
Consensus 2.3 2.3
Notes and sources History
30 days ago 2.3 2.3
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
60 days ago 2.2 2.3
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional 90 days ago 1.8 2.4
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, real annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 55

 Chile June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF 2.3 2.0 -0.5 2.6
Banchile Inversiones 2.8 2.3 -1.3 3.6
BCI 1.8 2.5 -1.8 2.5
BICE Inversiones 2.3 - -0.3 3.5
BTG Pactual 2.7 3.2 -3.1 4.5
Capital Economics 1.1 2.0 2.3 0.4
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.3 -1.5 3.5
Credicorp Capital 2.1 - -0.5 2.0
EIU 2.6 2.6 -1.0 1.4
Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 3.0 2.5 0.8 2.2
FrontierView 4.6 1.7 - -
Fynsa - - 0.9 1.7
Gemines 3.6 4.2 -2.9 5.2
Goldman Sachs 1.5 2.4 -2.9 3.2 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
HSBC 3.0 1.6 - -
Inversiones Security 1.5 - -3.1 -
LarrainVial Asset Management 2.1 2.8 -2.2 2.0
Moody's Analytics 3.4 2.4 -4.4 3.0
Oxford Economics 3.8 6.0 1.1 6.0
Pezco Economics 2.5 2.5 4.3 4.6
Rabobank 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.4
S&P Global Ratings 1.6 2.8 0.8 2.8
Santander 1.6 2.5 -2.6 3.1
Scotiabank 2.0 2.3 0.0 3.5
Torino Capital 1.5 - -0.3 -
UBS 2.4 2.2 0.0 3.0
Public Forecasts
CAF* 2.1 2.8 -1.0 2.2
IMF* 1.6 2.2 1.8 3.0
OECD 1.8 2.5 0.2 3.4
World Bank 1.9 2.1 0.2 2.4
Summary 8 | Investment | variation in %
Minimum 1.1 1.6 -4.4 0.4
Maximum 4.6 6.0 4.3 6.0
Median 2.2 2.5 -0.4 3.0
Consensus 2.3 2.6 -0.6 3.0
History
30 days ago 2.3 2.5 -0.4 3.0
60 days ago 2.4 2.5 0.1 3.0
90 days ago 2.3 2.5 0.9 2.6

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 56

 Chile June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF - - 8.5 8.2
BICE Inversiones - - 8.3 -
BTG Pactual - - 8.5 8.1
Capital Economics - - 8.9 8.8
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 8.5 -
Credicorp Capital - - 8.5 -
E2 Economia 1.9 1.4 - -
EIU - - 7.6 7.3
Euromonitor Int. - - 8.7 8.6
Fitch Solutions - - 8.1 8.2
FrontierView - - 7.7 7.0
Fynsa - - 8.5 8.0
Gemines 3.2 - 8.6 8.5
HSBC - - 8.5 8.3
Inversiones Security 1.6 - 9.2 - 11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Oxford Economics - - 7.8 6.8
Pezco Economics - - 8.4 8.2
Rabobank 1.1 1.7 8.7 8.8
S&P Global Ratings - - 8.2 7.6
Scotiabank - - 8.0 7.8
Torino Capital - - 8.0 -
UBS - - 8.8 8.5
Public Forecasts
CAF - - 8.4 8.0
IMF - - 8.7 8.1
OECD - - 8.1 7.6
Summary
Minimum 1.1 - 7.6 6.8
Maximum 3.2 - 9.2 8.8
Median 1.8 - 8.5 8.1
Consensus 1.9 - 8.4 8.0
History
30 days ago 0.9 - 8.3 8.0 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
60 days ago 1.5 - 8.4 8.1
90 days ago 0.6 - 8.4 8.1

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing output, annual variation in %.

11 Manufacturing output, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 57

 Chile June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF -2.2 -1.4 41.3 41.7
AGPV -2.0 -1.8 - -
Barclays Capital -2.4 -2.2 41.5 43.0
BCI -2.8 -2.4 - -
BNP Paribas -2.1 -1.6 40.5 40.7
BTG Pactual -2.1 -2.0 41.6 42.9
Capital Economics -2.8 -2.8 39.0 40.0
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.9 -1.7 38.6 37.4
Credicorp Capital -2.0 -2.2 41.5 42.0
DekaBank -2.5 -2.4 - -
EIU -2.3 -2.2 41.2 41.9
Fitch Ratings -2.1 -2.1 41.4 42.5
Fitch Solutions -2.1 -2.3 40.3 41.7
Fynsa -2.0 -1.6 40.5 42.0
Gemines -1.9 -1.2 41.0 42.5 15 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts
Goldman Sachs -2.2 -1.9 41.7 41.7
HSBC -1.9 -1.5 41.2 41.5
Inversiones Security -2.5 - 41.5 -
Moody's Analytics -3.6 -3.6 40.2 41.5
Oxford Economics -1.8 -1.1 37.4 36.6
Pezco Economics -3.0 -2.5 43.0 44.6
Rabobank -2.3 -2.1 41.3 42.4
Santander -2.1 -2.1 - -
Scope Ratings -2.2 - 39.4 -
Scotiabank -2.3 -1.8 - -
Torino Capital -1.5 - - -
UBS -2.5 -2.3 41.5 42.3
Public Forecasts
CAF -1.9 -1.2 41.6 40.5
IMF -1.9 -1.2 40.5 40.8
OECD -1.9 -1.2 - -
World Bank -2.2 -2.0 41.3 41.6
Summary 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Minimum -3.6 -3.6 37.4 36.6
Maximum -1.5 -1.1 43.0 44.6
Median -2.1 -2.0 41.3 41.7
Consensus -2.2 -1.9 40.8 41.5
History
30 days ago -2.2 -1.9 40.8 41.5
60 days ago -2.2 -2.0 40.7 41.5
90 days ago -2.3 -2.0 40.8 41.5

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the DIPRES (Dirección de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Chile June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF 3.7 3.1 4.0 3.0
Actinver 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.1
AGPV - - 4.1 3.5
Allianz - - 3.5 3.0
Banchile Inversiones 3.6 3.0 3.6 3.0
Barclays Capital 3.5 3.0 - -
BCI 3.8 3.0 - -
BICE Inversiones 4.2 3.0 - -
BNP Paribas - - 3.3 3.0
BTG Pactual 3.9 3.0 3.7 3.1
Capital Economics 2.6 3.1 4.0 3.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.8 3.0 3.8 3.5
Corficolombiana 3.0 3.4 3.7 2.8
Credicorp Capital 3.6 3.0 4.0 3.2
DekaBank - - 3.6 3.1 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
E2 Economia 4.5 3.2 - -
EIU 3.6 3.0 3.6 3.2
EmergingMarketWatch 3.3 2.6 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 3.4 3.1
Fitch Ratings - - 3.5 3.0
Fitch Solutions 3.4 3.1 3.8 3.3
FrontierView - - 3.4 3.1
Fynsa 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.0
Gemines 3.8 3.3 4.2 2.7
Goldman Sachs 3.6 3.0 3.5 3.0
HSBC 3.8 3.0 3.7 3.2
Inversiones Security 3.5 - 4.0 -
Itaú Unibanco 4.1 3.1 - -
Julius Baer - - 3.0 2.1
Kiel Institute 4.3 3.0 4.2 3.2
LarrainVial Asset Management 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.6
Moody's Analytics 2.8 3.2 2.9 3.0
Oxford Economics 3.8 3.1 3.6 3.0 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 3.8 3.1
Pezco Economics 3.5 3.1 3.7 3.3
Rabobank 3.8 3.0 3.9 3.0
S&P Global Ratings 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.2
Santander 3.8 2.9 4.0 -
Scotiabank 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3
Standard Chartered - - 4.3 3.2
Torino Capital 3.1 - 3.2 -
UBS 3.5 2.8 3.8 2.7
Public Forecasts
CAF 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.3
IMF 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0
OECD - - 3.9 3.3
United Nations* - - 3.3 2.9
World Bank - - 3.3 3.0
Summary
Minimum 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.1
Maximum 4.5 3.5 4.3 3.6 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
Median 3.6 3.0 3.7 3.1
Consensus 3.6 3.1 3.7 3.1
History
30 days ago 3.5 3.1 3.6 3.1
60 days ago 3.5 3.1 3.6 3.1
90 days ago 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.0

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 59

 Chile June 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABIF 4.75 4.00
Actinver 4.50 4.00
AGPV 5.00 4.50
Banchile Inversiones 5.00 4.00
Barclays Capital 4.75 4.50
BCI 4.50 4.00
BICE Inversiones 5.00 4.50
BTG Pactual 4.75 4.00
Capital Economics 4.50 3.75
Citigroup Global Mkts 5.00 5.00
Corficolombiana 4.50 -
Credicorp Capital 5.25 4.00
EIU 4.50 4.00
Fitch Solutions 5.00 4.00
Fynsa 4.00 4.00
Gemines 5.25 4.50
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs 4.50 4.50
HSBC 5.00 4.50
Inversiones Security 4.50 -
Itaú Unibanco 5.25 4.50
JPMorgan 5.25 -
LarrainVial Asset Management 4.50 4.00
Oxford Economics 4.00 4.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 4.50 4.00
Rabobank 4.50 4.50
S&P Global Ratings 5.50 5.00
Santander 4.75 4.00
Scotiabank 4.50 4.25
Torino Capital 5.00 -
UBS 4.50 4.00
Summary
Minimum 4.00 3.75
Maximum 5.50 5.00
Median 4.75 4.00
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Consensus 4.75 4.23
History
30 days ago 4.68 4.23
60 days ago 4.63 4.21
90 days ago 4.42 4.21

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas).
Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INE.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop). Source: BCCh.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 60

 Chile June 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
ABIF 870 860
Actinver 890 870
AGPV 830 830
Banchile Inversiones 900 790
Barclays Capital 950 940
BCI 870 840
BICE Inversiones 880 850
BTG Pactual 870 860
Capital Economics 925 900
Citigroup Global Mkts 954 882
Credicorp Capital 920 -
E2 Economia 890 870
EIU 916 919
Fitch Ratings 850 850
Fitch Solutions 960 930
Fynsa 860 830
29 | CLP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | CLP per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Gemines 900 872
HSBC 910 -
Inversiones Security 880 -
Itaú Unibanco 920 850
JPMorgan 970 -
Julius Baer 1,037 968
LarrainVial Asset Management 870 850
Moody's Analytics 909 890
Oxford Economics 888 878
Pezco Economics 903 929
Rabobank 890 870
S&P Global Ratings 975 985
Santander 890 900
Scotiabank 870 870
Standard Chartered 920 860
Torino Capital 894 -
UBS 925 915
Public Forecasts
31 | CLP per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
CAF 900 890
Summary
Minimum 830 790
Maximum 1,037 985
Median 900 870
Consensus 905 881
History
30 days ago 910 886
60 days ago 907 892
90 days ago 889 867

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 61

 Chile June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF -3.4 -3.4 17.8 18.8
Barclays Capital -3.5 -3.6 17.9 17.2
BCI -2.6 -2.2 - -
BICE Inversiones -3.2 - - -
BNP Paribas -3.4 -3.3 - -
BTG Pactual -3.5 -3.8 11.1 9.7
CAF - - 17.3 17.1
Capital Economics -3.3 -3.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.7 -3.8 12.9 11.6
Credicorp Capital -2.8 -2.7 - -
DekaBank -3.9 -3.1 - -
EIU -3.3 -3.1 18.3 18.3
Euromonitor Int. -4.5 -5.2 - -
Fitch Ratings -4.1 -4.2 10.2 9.9
Fitch Solutions -4.3 -4.4 15.5 16.4 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Fynsa -2.4 -2.1 17.2 17.5
Gemines -4.0 -4.7 12.6 9.7
Goldman Sachs -4.0 -3.7 14.5 13.5
HSBC -3.9 -3.9 14.5 12.0
Inversiones Security -2.8 - 19.2 -
Moody's Analytics -2.2 -2.8 - -
Oxford Economics -1.2 -3.5 20.1 10.5
Pezco Economics -3.2 -3.0 8.8 10.5
Rabobank -3.2 -2.6 14.7 10.3
Santander -3.0 -2.9 17.1 16.4
Scotiabank -2.0 -1.0 - -
Standard Chartered -3.8 -3.7 - -
Torino Capital -2.8 - 18.7 -
UBS -3.6 -3.7 13.6 12.8
Public Forecasts
CAF -3.4 -3.4 - -
IMF -3.9 -3.7 - -
OECD -4.0 -3.9 - - 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
World Bank -3.6 -3.4 - -
Summary
Minimum -4.5 -5.2 8.8 9.7
Maximum -1.2 -1.0 20.1 18.8
Median -3.4 -3.4 15.5 12.8
Consensus -3.3 -3.4 15.2 14.1
History
30 days ago -3.4 -3.4 14.7 13.3
60 days ago -3.5 -3.5 13.9 12.5
90 days ago -3.4 -3.6 13.3 11.7

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 62

 Chile June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
ABIF 101.9 106.9 84.1 88.1
Barclays Capital 101.5 102.5 83.6 85.3
BTG Pactual 91.7 95.5 80.6 85.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 94.5 97.3 81.6 85.7
EIU 101.9 107.1 83.6 88.8
Euromonitor Int. 96.5 109.5 - -
Fitch Ratings 100.8 100.8 90.6 90.9
Fitch Solutions 99.5 103.8 84.0 87.3
Fynsa 97.9 102.1 80.7 84.6
Gemines 97.4 101.3 84.8 91.6
Goldman Sachs 99.3 104.2 84.8 90.7
HSBC 96.5 101.1 82.0 89.1
Inversiones Security 98.9 - 79.7 -
Oxford Economics 99.6 92.7 79.5 82.2
Pezco Economics 104.5 107.6 95.6 97.1 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Rabobank 99.6 102.8 84.9 92.5
Santander 90.7 96.2 73.6 79.8
Torino Capital 106.5 - 87.8 -
UBS 98.8 102.6 85.2 89.8
Public Forecasts
CAF 98.1 100.8 80.9 83.7
IMF* 100.2 103.8 89.5 90.0
Summary
Minimum 90.7 92.7 73.6 79.8
Maximum 106.5 109.5 95.6 97.1
Median 99.1 102.3 83.6 88.1
Consensus 98.8 101.9 83.6 87.8
History
30 days ago 98.2 101.2 83.6 87.9
60 days ago 98.1 101.1 84.2 88.6
90 days ago 98.6 101.2 85.3 89.5

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 63

 Chile June 2024

External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 44.0 45.0 - -
Barclays Capital 52.6 49.3 - -
BNP Paribas 46.3 46.3 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 45.7 45.7 - -
EIU 48.8 51.4 244 248
Euromonitor Int. 46.8 51.3 - -
Fitch Ratings 47.8 48.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 49.7 49.7 - -
Fynsa 48.0 55.0 - -
Gemines 46.0 46.0 246 252
Goldman Sachs 47.7 53.1 - -
Inversiones Security 46.5 - 245 -
Moody's Analytics 48.2 51.5 - -
Oxford Economics 41.8 42.8 252 277
Rabobank 46.3 50.0 226 243 41 | Int. Reserves | evol. of forecasts
Torino Capital 44.0 - - -
UBS 45.1 45.7 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF* - - 254 261
Summary
Minimum 41.8 42.8 226 243
Maximum 52.6 55.0 252 277
Median 46.5 49.3 245 250
Consensus 46.8 48.8 243 255
History
30 days ago 46.8 48.5 242 254
60 days ago 46.4 47.8 242 254
90 days ago 46.1 47.4 238 249

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 64

 Chile June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Chile in the Region

Official Name Republic of Chile Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital Santiago (6.7 m)
Other cities Valparaíso (0.9 m)
Concepción (0.9 m)
Area (km2) 756,102
Population (million, 2024 est.) 19
Population density (per km2, 2024) 24.7
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.61
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 80.3
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 97
Language Spanish
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-3

Economic infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2020)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 13 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 136
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 90
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 20

Energy (2023)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 261
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,368
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 90.9
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 86.6
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 210
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 370
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 79.7

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 374
Railways (km): 7,281.5
Roadways (km): 77,801 Trade Structure
Coronel, Huasco, Lirquen, Puerto Primary markets | share in %
Chief ports: Ventanas, San Antonio, San Vicente,
Valparaiso

Political Data
Head of State: Gabriel Boric
Head of Government: Gabriel Boric
Exports Imports
Last Elections: 21 November 2021
Next Elections: November 2025
Central Bank Governor Rosanna Costa

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook Primary products | share in %

Moody's A2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings A Negative
Fitch Ratings A- Stable

Strengths Weaknesses
Exports Imports
• Market-oriented policy • High dependence on copper
• Structurally sound and prudent • exports
• fiscal policy • Relatively small domestic
• Free trade agreements with • market
• major economic areas • Political uncertainty surrounding
new constitution

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 65

 Colombia June 2024

Colombia
Private spending to drive momentum in 2024
Economic overview: The economy expanded 0.7% annually in Q1, above
Q4 2023’s 0.3% rise but falling short of market expectations. A rebound in
private spending and a slower decline in fixed investment compared to Q4
underpinned the upturn. That said, government expenditure swung into
contraction and exports growth lost momentum. Shifting to Q2, our panelists
expect GDP growth to be accelerating, as lower inflation and interest rates
lend support to domestic demand. In other news, in early June, muted
economic growth and lower-than-expected tax revenue prompted the
government to temporarily freeze budgets for unauthorized projects amid
a deteriorating fiscal outlook; public spending could resume in full in H2 if
Afonso Alves Monteiro revenue conditions improve. Our panel has downgraded their forecasts for
Economist government spending growth by 0.6 percentage points since the start of the
year.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: GDP growth is set to rise this year from last. Private spending
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 will be shored up by steady disinflation and monetary policy loosening by the
GDP growth (%): 3.6 1.5 3.0 Central Bank (Banrep). That said, political uncertainty and the government’s
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.7 -4.5 -3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP): 62.9 58.8 60.5
interventionist agenda cloud the outlook. Social unrest, a resurgence in
Inflation (%): 5.4 7.4 3.2 organized crime and a slow global economic recovery are downside risks.
Current Account (% of GDP): -5.0 -3.0 -3.3
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.4% in 2024, which is up
by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.6% in 2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Inflation: Inflation fell to an over two-year low of 7.2% in April (March: 7.4%)
on reduced price pressures for food. Similarly, core inflation receded to
7.3% (March: 7.6%). Disinflation will continue through Q4, although average
inflation will remain above Banrep’s 2.0–4.0% target range. A weaker-than-
expected peso is an upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer
prices rising 6.5% on average in 2024, which is unchanged from one month
ago, and rising 4.1% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: At its 30 April meeting, Banrep slashed the benchmark

interest rate by 50 basis points to 11.75%, matching March’s move
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
and meeting market expectations. The cut was driven by the continued
deceleration of inflation through March. Our panelists pencil in an additional
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
100–475 basis points of cuts this year. The next meeting is set for 28 June.
FocusEconomics panelists see the policy interest rate ending 2024 at 8.56%
and ending 2025 at 5.84%.

Currency: The peso traded at COP 3,938 per USD on 7 June, depreciating
1.1% month on month. Our panelists expect the peso to gradually weaken
against the USD by the end of 2024 on a narrowing positive interest rate
differential with the U.S. Fed plus widening fiscal and current account deficits
weighing on investor confidence. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso
ending 2024 at COP 4,048 per USD and ending 2025 at COP 4,091 per
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 USD.
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 66

 Colombia June 2024

REAL SECTOR | GDP growth accelerates in Q1 but fails to meet market

expectations
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: GDP growth gathered pace to 0.7% year on year in the first
quarter from 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1’s reading marked the
best result since Q1 2023 and beat Banrep’s forecast of 0.3% growth. On a
seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth picked up to
1.1% in Q1, compared to the previous period’s 1.0% expansion. Q1’s reading
marked the strongest expansion since Q2 2022. That said, both the year-on-
year and quarter-on-quarter GDP readings fell short of market expectations.

Drivers: Household spending rebounded, growing 0.6% year-on-year in

the first quarter (Q4 2023: -0.8% yoy), which marked the best reading since
Q2 2023. Moreover, fixed investment contracted at a softer rate of 6.5% in
Q1 from the 14.1% decrease recorded in the prior quarter. Less positively,
Note: Year-on-year changes and quarter-on-quarter of GDP in %. government spending swung into contraction, falling 0.7% in January–March
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast. (Q4 2023: +4.0% yoy).

On the external front, growth in exports of goods and services slowed to

0.7% on an annual basis in the first quarter (Q4 2023: +6.7% yoy), as goods
exports fell deeper into contractionary territory. Conversely, imports of goods
and services declined at a softer pace of 12.9% in Q1 (Q4 2023: -14.1% yoy).

GDP outlook: Annual GDP growth is likely accelerating in Q2 and appears

set to gain further steam in the second half of 2024, though largely on a low
base of comparison. Household consumption and investment will accelerate,
with inflation set to average below its January–March level through December
and Banrep on track to reduce interest rates by at least a further 300 basis
points by year-end.

Panelist insight: Credicorp Capital’s Daniel Velandia and Diego Camacho

Alvarez commented on the outlook:

“We expect public expenditures to be a key driver of economic growth this

year. Private consumption is also anticipated to improve in the second half of
2024 due to lower inflation and interest rates. While investment may benefit
from a favorable comparison to the previous year’s data, a clearer regulatory
environment will be crucial for a faster recovery in this area.”

Santiago Tellez, analyst at Goldman Sachs, added:

“We still view activity as facing several headwinds: tight domestic and external
financial conditions, lacking public infrastructure projects, and heightened
policy uncertainty stemming from fiscal slippages risk, the administration’s
legislative and policy agenda, and regulatory instability. Conversely, activity
may be partly boosted by resilient external demand and strong workers’
remittances. The underperformance of fixed investment remains the main
Economic Activity | variation in %
downside risk to our growth forecast.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.4%

in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.6% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity records joint-worst result in over

three years
Latest reading: Economic activity decreased 1.5% year-on-year in March,
contrasting February’s 2.2% increase. March’s reading was the joint-lowest
since February 2021 and fell short of market expectations. Looking at the
details of the release, the agriculture sector swung into contraction in the
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of economic activity in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). month. Moreover, industrial activity declined at the fastest pace in seven

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 67

 Colombia June 2024

months, and growth in services moderated. As a result, the trend pointed

down, with annual average growth in economic activity coming in at 0.2%,
down from February’s 0.5%.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell at a sharper

rate of 0.8% in March (February: -0.3% s.a. mom), the worst result since July
2023.

Panelist insight: Credicorp Capital’s Diego Camacho Alvarez and Daniel

Velandia commented on March’s reading:

“[March’s reading is] mostly explained by the calendar effect as this month
had four fewer business days compared to Mar-23 and […] we estimate that
one fewer business day subtracts 1.2-1.5pp to economic growth in a particular
month. In fact, this effect is set to reverse in Apr-24.”

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI rises in May but remains

contractionary
Purchasing Managers’ Index Latest reading: The Davivienda Colombia Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 49.8 in May from 49.2 in April. As a result,
the index edged closer to the 50.0 no-change threshold, signaling a softer
deterioration in manufacturing-sector operating conditions compared to the
previous month.

May’s PMI reading chiefly reflected a slower reduction in new orders and
production, in part supported by competitive pricing strategies. That said,
delivery times increased amid heavy rains and disruption to transport. In
addition, firms shed staff at a faster clip compared to April amid still-subdued
demand conditions.

Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate Regarding prices, input cost inflation accelerated, though it remained
an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 point to a
deterioration.
moderate by historical standards. That said, manufacturers continued to cut
Source: S&P Global and Davivienda. selling prices in an effort to deplete excess stock amid client requests for
discounts. Lastly, business confidence fell to a 16-month low due to economic
and political concerns, a subdued outlook for demand and profit worries.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see manufacturing production

expanding 0.3% in 2024, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one month
ago, and expanding 3.4% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Consumer confidence picks up but remains deeply

pessimistic in April
Consumer Sentiment
Latest reading: Consumer confidence rose to minus 11.4 in April from
March’s minus 13.0. That said, the index remained entrenched below the
0-point threshold, indicating that consumers were still pessimistic. The upturn
chiefly reflected consumers becoming less pessimistic regarding the country’s
general economic situation in the coming year, which outweighed heightened
pessimism regarding its current situation.

Outlook: Sentiment remained deeply pessimistic in April, hinting at muted

private spending at the start of Q2. Inflation continued to outpace the Central
Bank’s target of 3.0% in April, and this, paired with a still-high unemployment
rate, will likely continue to dampen sentiment during the remainder of the
quarter.
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic
perception, below 0 indicate negative perception. Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see private consumption
Source: Fedesarrollo.
expanding 1.1% in 2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one
month ago, and expanding 2.4% in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 68

 Colombia June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 49.4 50.4 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.7 54.3 54.8
GDP per Capita (USD) 6,541 5,367 6,242 6,692 6,971 7,976 8,276 8,711 9,034 9,508
GDP (USD bn) 323 270 319 345 364 420 440 468 490 521
GDP (COP tn) 1,060 998 1,193 1,470 1,572 1,662 1,768 1,926 2,086 2,251
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 -5.8 19.4 23.2 7.0 5.7 6.4 9.0 8.3 7.9
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 -7.2 10.8 7.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.1 -5.0 14.7 10.7 0.8 1.1 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.3 -0.8 9.8 0.8 1.6 1.4 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.2 -23.6 16.7 11.5 -9.5 -0.1 4.7 3.8 4.2 4.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.1 -22.5 14.6 12.3 3.4 2.7 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.3 -20.1 26.7 23.6 -15.0 0.9 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.4
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 1.5 -8.1 16.2 10.6 -5.0 0.3 3.4 4.3 4.0 4.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.1 -1.5 12.3 9.1 -4.0 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.9 16.7 13.8 11.2 10.2 10.6 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -7.8 -7.0 -5.3 -4.3 -5.0 -4.1 -3.7 -3.4 -3.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 50.3 65.0 63.0 60.8 56.7 59.4 60.4 60.3 60.6 60.4
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 8.7 14.3 11.8 12.1 7.2 7.8 6.4 6.5 - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.8 1.6 5.6 13.1 9.3 5.4 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.5 2.5 3.5 10.2 11.7 6.5 4.1 3.3 3.2 3.1
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.3 -0.8 17.0 29.6 0.6 1.7 3.7 - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.25 1.75 3.00 12.00 13.00 8.56 5.84 5.28 5.36 5.13
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.48 1.89 3.21 13.70 12.69 8.50 5.71 5.81 6.03 6.03
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.42 5.76 8.46 13.22 9.94 9.69 8.59 7.54 7.88 -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 3,277 3,433 3,981 4,810 3,822 4,048 4,091 4,063 4,131 4,152
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 3,281 3,693 3,743 4,255 4,325 3,954 4,015 4,116 4,257 4,323
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -14.8 -9.3 -17.9 -21.2 -9.2 -12.7 -14.8 -15.7 -16.3 -16.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -3.4 -5.6 -6.1 -2.5 -3.0 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -9.9 -8.9 -14.0 -12.2 -6.7 -8.0 -9.0 -9.1 -9.6 -7.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 40.7 32.3 42.7 59.5 52.6 55.2 56.6 59.3 62.1 66.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 50.5 41.2 56.7 71.7 59.4 63.2 65.6 68.4 71.8 74.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -5.4 -20.5 32.3 39.2 -11.5 4.8 2.5 4.8 4.8 7.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 2.3 -18.5 37.7 26.3 -17.1 6.4 3.9 4.3 4.9 3.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 14.0 7.5 9.4 17.0 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 53.2 59.0 58.6 57.3 59.6 59.6 60.7 59.5 60.2 61.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 12.6 17.2 12.4 9.6 12.0 11.3 11.1 10.4 10.1 9.9
External Debt (USD bn) 139 155 171 184 196 209 224 237 250 266
External Debt (% of GDP) 42.9 57.2 53.8 53.2 54.0 49.8 50.9 50.7 51.1 51.0
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -0.7 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.7
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.4 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.2 -0.8 0.6 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 4.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.2 2.0 3.3 1.5 2.7 3.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -11.5 -14.1 -6.5 1.0 4.9 7.2 3.0 3.6 3.4 3.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.8 6.7 0.7 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -23.2 -14.1 -12.9 -0.2 5.6 5.4 7.8 5.7 4.5 4.4
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 9.4 9.4 11.9 10.4 10.3 9.9 11.4 10.3 10.1 9.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.4 10.0 7.8 7.0 6.1 5.5 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.7
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 13.25 13.00 12.25 11.30 10.06 8.68 7.55 6.65 6.08 5.72
90-day DTF (%, eop) 13.01 12.69 10.94 10.72 9.74 8.57 7.48 6.58 6.06 5.89
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 11.87 9.94 10.32 11.15 10.80 10.43 8.80 8.52 8.27 8.20
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 4,054 3,822 3,842 3,948 4,012 4,039 3,999 3,996 4,012 4,065
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.8 -2.1 -1.9 -2.7 -3.0 -3.3 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.6
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 1.2 -0.5 -0.7 1.2 -0.3 1.6 -0.3 -0.8 - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 0.0 -1.5 -1.1 2.5 0.2 1.4 2.2 -1.5 - -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -8.6 -6.9 -6.0 -6.4 -6.9 -4.3 -2.1 -11.1 - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -5.6 -3.6 -7.6 -3.3 -2.7 -4.2 -1.1 -2.8 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 10.0 12.7 11.7 11.3 10.6 -
Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 46.8 47.8 48.1 49.4 52.0 55.1 51.2 50.6 49.2 49.8
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold) -18.8 -17.9 -14.0 -20.9 -17.3 -7.9 -9.4 -13.0 -11.4 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.70 0.53 0.25 0.47 0.46 0.91 1.09 0.70 0.59 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 11.4 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.3 8.3 7.7 7.4 7.2 -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 4,085 4,054 4,061 3,981 3,822 3,926 3,934 3,842 3,873 3,874
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -10.1 -12.8 -1.4 -8.1 -4.2 -3.0 -10.1 -14.2 - -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. Due to the absence of a standard definition, the Consensus Forecast for public debt contains a range of
definitions.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 69

 Colombia June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012 - 2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 1.4 2.8
AGPV 1.8 2.5
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 1.5 2.8
Allianz 1.5 2.5
ANIF 1.1 2.4
Asobancaria 1.2 3.0
Banco Agrario de Colombia 1.5 2.4
Banco Davivienda 1.5 3.0
Banco de Bogotá 1.1 2.5
Bancolombia 0.9 2.4
Barclays Capital 1.8 2.8
BBVA Research 1.5 2.8
BTG Pactual 1.7 2.6
CABI 1.8 0.0
Capital Economics 1.5 2.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.6
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
Corficolombiana 1.3 2.0
Credicorp Capital 1.8 2.1
DekaBank 1.2 3.0
E2 Economia 1.3 2.5
Econosignal 1.4 3.3
EIU 1.0 2.8
EmergingMarketWatch 1.7 2.5
Euromonitor Int. 1.2 2.6
Fedesarrollo 1.5 2.6
Fitch Ratings 1.1 2.8
Fitch Solutions 1.3 2.2
FrontierView 1.1 2.5
Goldman Sachs 1.9 2.8
HSBC 1.2 2.0
Itaú Unibanco 1.2 2.6
JPMorgan 1.7 2.7
Julius Baer 0.0 3.2
Kiel Institute 2.0 2.3
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Moody's Analytics 1.5 2.8
Oxford Economics 1.0 2.9
Pantheon Macroeconomics 1.5 2.0
Pezco Economics 1.2 1.9
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 1.3 2.0
Rabobank 1.6 2.7
S&P Global Ratings 1.1 2.8
Scotiabank Colpatria 1.4 2.1
Sectorial 1.5 2.7
Standard Chartered 1.3 3.1
Torino Capital 1.5 -
UBS 1.4 2.6
Public Forecasts
CAF* 2.2 3.1
CEPAL 1.3 -
IMF 1.1 2.5
OECD 1.2 3.3
United Nations* 1.7 2.8
World Bank 1.3 3.2
Summary
Minimum 0.0 0.0
Maximum 2.0 3.3
Notes and sources Median 1.4 2.6
Consensus 1.4 2.6
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
History
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional 30 days ago 1.3 2.7
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute 60 days ago 1.3 2.7
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus 90 days ago 1.4 2.7
Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, real annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 70

 Colombia June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 1.0 2.1 0.9 4.8
ANIF 1.0 2.6 - -
Asobancaria 1.9 - -4.2 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia 1.0 2.4 - -
Banco Davivienda 1.7 - 1.0 -
Bancolombia 0.5 2.1 - -
Barclays Capital 2.5 3.7 1.1 4.8
BBVA Research 1.9 3.2 -0.1 6.0
BTG Pactual 2.5 2.6 -4.9 3.2
Capital Economics 0.3 3.0 -0.8 1.2
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.9 2.6 -11.6 3.9
Corficolombiana 0.1 - -4.7 -
Credicorp Capital 0.9 2.4 - -
EIU 1.5 2.9 - -
Euromonitor Int. 0.6 2.0 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Fedesarrollo 1.2 2.4 - -
Fitch Solutions 1.4 2.4 - -
FrontierView 1.7 2.5 - -
Goldman Sachs 1.4 3.1 3.8 1.7
HSBC 0.9 1.7 0.8 2.5
Moody's Analytics 2.2 2.8 -2.6 2.8
Oxford Economics -2.7 -1.6 3.5 11.1
Pezco Economics 1.6 2.4 1.7 2.9
Rabobank 1.8 2.7 5.8 6.7
S&P Global Ratings 1.4 2.8 - -
Scotiabank Colpatria 0.6 1.6 -0.1 0.8
Torino Capital 0.0 - 15.7 -
UBS 1.5 2.5 - -
Public Forecasts
CAF* - - 2.1 3.5
OECD 1.2 1.6 -7.4 12.1
World Bank 0.6 2.7 1.0 5.5
Summary 8 | Investment | variation in %
Minimum -2.7 -1.6 -11.6 0.8
Maximum 2.5 3.7 15.7 12.1
Median 1.2 2.5 0.8 3.9
Consensus 1.1 2.4 -0.1 4.7
History
30 days ago 1.3 2.4 -0.8 4.9
60 days ago 1.4 2.5 -0.5 4.4
90 days ago 1.4 2.5 0.1 4.1

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 71

 Colombia June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 0.3 2.7 11.4 11.3
ANIF - - 10.9 10.6
Asobancaria - - 10.4 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia -3.2 4.5 10.8 11.6
Banco de Bogotá - - 11.1 10.9
Bancolombia - - 10.9 10.9
BBVA Research - - 10.7 10.5
BTG Pactual - - 11.0 11.0
Capital Economics 2.0 2.0 9.1 9.0
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 11.0 9.9
Corficolombiana - - 11.0 -
E2 Economia -0.5 3.6 - -
Econosignal - - 10.7 10.5
EIU 9.2 5.5 8.9 8.1
Euromonitor Int. -2.8 2.3 11.0 10.8 11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Fedesarrollo - - 10.7 -
Fitch Solutions - - 10.7 10.0
FrontierView - - 11.2 10.1
Moody's Analytics -0.8 3.0 10.1 9.5
Oxford Economics -2.0 4.4 10.2 10.0
Pezco Economics 0.7 2.2 10.4 10.1
Positiva Compañía de Seguros - - 11.0 11.5
Rabobank - - 9.4 8.9
S&P Global Ratings - - 10.9 10.4
Scotiabank Colpatria - - 10.7 10.8
Sectorial - - 10.8 10.6
Torino Capital - - 11.0 -
UBS - - 11.0 9.9
Public Forecasts
CAF* - - 10.7 10.6
IMF - - 9.9 9.6
OECD - - 11.1 10.8
Summary 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Minimum -3.2 2.0 8.9 8.1
Maximum 9.2 5.5 11.4 11.6
Median -0.5 3.0 10.8 10.5
Consensus 0.3 3.4 10.6 10.3
History
30 days ago 0.1 3.3 10.6 10.2
60 days ago 0.1 3.4 10.5 10.2
90 days ago 0.3 3.0 10.5 10.2

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing production, annual variation in %.

11 Manufacturing production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 72

 Colombia June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores -5.0 -4.0 58.0 58.0
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria -5.3 -4.3 - -
Asobancaria -5.9 - 57.8 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia -5.3 -3.5 - -
Banco Davivienda -5.3 - - -
Banco de Bogotá -5.3 -4.7 - -
Bancolombia -4.9 -4.6 60.1 61.7
Barclays Capital - - 60.7 61.6
BBVA Research -5.2 -3.9 59.8 60.0
BTG Pactual -5.9 -5.0 57.6 57.3
CABI -4.6 -4.5 57.0 58.0
Capital Economics -5.3 -5.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.2 -3.4 57.0 56.9
Corficolombiana -6.3 - 61.5 -
Credicorp Capital -5.3 -4.5 56.4 57.2 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
DekaBank -5.1 -4.3 - -
Econosignal -4.7 -4.0 - -
EIU -5.7 -4.3 - -
Fedesarrollo -5.5 -4.1 60.8 61.6
Fitch Solutions - - 71.6 72.4
Goldman Sachs -6.1 -4.0 - -
HSBC -5.3 -4.0 - -
Moody's Analytics - - 66.9 69.8
Oxford Economics -5.3 -3.8 58.6 58.7
Pezco Economics -4.2 -4.8 56.2 61.7
Rabobank -4.5 -4.2 57.7 57.2
Scotiabank Colpatria -4.5 - 56.0 -
Torino Capital -3.9 - 60.0 -
UBS -5.5 -4.3 59.5 59.9
Public Forecasts
CAF* -4.5 -3.5 56.4 56.4
IMF -3.3 -3.1 54.4 55.6
World Bank -3.5 -3.0 60.4 59.3 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Summary
Minimum -6.3 -5.0 54.4 55.6
Maximum -3.3 -3.0 71.6 72.4
Median -5.3 -4.2 58.6 59.3
Consensus -5.0 -4.1 59.4 60.4
History
30 days ago -4.9 -4.2 59.1 60.1
60 days ago -4.9 -4.0 59.1 59.8
90 days ago -4.7 -4.0 59.2 60.0

17 | Public Debt | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the Colombian
Ministry of Finance & Public Credit (MINHACIENDA). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

15 Central government balance, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: MINHACIENDA.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 73

 Colombia June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 6.2 3.7 7.0 4.6
AGPV 4.5 4.2 - -
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 5.6 3.8 - -
Allianz - - 6.5 4.5
ANIF 5.6 3.9 6.7 4.3
Asobancaria 5.3 3.7 6.7 4.0
Banco Agrario de Colombia 5.8 3.9 6.8 4.7
Banco Davivienda 5.8 - 6.8 -
Banco de Bogotá 5.6 3.6 4.9 3.4
Bancolombia 5.7 4.3 6.8 4.8
Barclays Capital 4.5 3.7 6.3 3.7
BBVA Research 5.4 3.8 6.7 4.2
BTG Pactual 6.0 3.1 6.1 3.3
CABI 5.0 4.5 - -
Capital Economics 5.3 5.4 6.5 4.0 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.9 3.4 6.3 4.0
Corficolombiana 5.6 3.8 6.8 4.2
Credicorp Capital 5.5 3.7 6.7 4.2
DekaBank - - 5.8 3.2
E2 Economia 5.2 3.7 - -
Econosignal 5.5 3.9 6.2 4.1
EIU 5.2 3.2 6.6 3.8
EmergingMarketWatch 5.2 3.8 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 6.4 3.7
Fedesarrollo 5.5 4.0 - -
Fitch Ratings - - 8.3 4.9
Fitch Solutions 4.9 3.2 6.4 4.0
FrontierView - - 4.6 3.0
Goldman Sachs 5.8 3.5 6.4 4.3
HSBC 5.4 3.8 6.4 4.6
Itaú Unibanco 5.2 3.0 - -
Julius Baer - - 6.6 3.8
Kiel Institute 6.2 3.7 7.0 4.0 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Moody's Analytics 5.5 3.7 6.7 4.1
Oxford Economics 4.9 4.0 6.6 3.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 6.2 3.8
Pezco Economics 5.8 4.3 7.6 5.1
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 5.4 3.4 6.7 4.0
Rabobank 5.4 4.0 6.6 4.3
S&P Global Ratings 5.5 3.5 6.4 3.9
Scotiabank Colpatria 5.8 3.4 6.9 3.9
Sectorial 5.8 3.6 6.6 4.9
Standard Chartered - - 6.0 3.2
Torino Capital 4.9 - 7.2 -
UBS 5.4 3.9 6.7 4.2
Public Forecasts
CAF* 5.0 3.6 7.0 4.3
IMF 5.3 3.0 6.4 3.6
OECD - - 6.5 4.3
United Nations* - - 4.9 3.8
World Bank - - 6.4 3.8 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
Summary
Minimum 4.5 3.0 4.6 3.0
Maximum 6.2 5.4 8.3 5.1
Median 5.5 3.7 6.6 4.0
Consensus 5.4 3.8 6.5 4.1
History
30 days ago 5.4 3.7 6.5 4.1
60 days ago 5.2 3.7 6.4 4.0
90 days ago 5.1 3.7 6.3 4.1

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 74

 Colombia June 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 8.75 5.25
AGPV 7.00 6.00
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 8.00 5.00
Asobancaria 8.25 5.75
Banco Agrario de Colombia 8.50 5.00
Banco Davivienda 8.50 -
Banco de Bogotá 8.75 5.75
Bancolombia 8.75 6.00
Barclays Capital 8.00 7.00
BBVA Research 8.50 6.00
BTG Pactual 8.50 5.50
CABI 8.50 7.00
Capital Economics 9.50 7.00
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.50 5.50
Corficolombiana 8.00 6.00
Credicorp Capital 8.00 5.75
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
Econosignal 8.50 5.00
EIU 9.50 6.00
Fedesarrollo 7.75 5.50
Fitch Ratings 8.00 5.50
Fitch Solutions 8.75 5.25
Goldman Sachs 9.25 5.50
HSBC 9.25 5.25
Itaú Unibanco 8.75 6.00
JPMorgan 8.25 -
Oxford Economics 10.75 7.25
Pantheon Macroeconomics 9.25 6.00
Rabobank 8.50 6.00
S&P Global Ratings 9.75 7.50
Scotiabank Colpatria 8.25 5.50
Sectorial 9.00 5.00
Torino Capital 7.00 -
UBS 8.00 5.50
Public Forecasts
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution
CAF* 7.25 6.00
Summary
Minimum 7.00 5.00
Maximum 10.75 7.50
Median 8.50 5.75
Consensus 8.56 5.84
History
30 days ago 8.33 5.73
60 days ago 8.21 5.78
90 days ago 8.10 5.79

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep,
Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 75

 Colombia June 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD Exchange Rate | COP per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 4,050 4,185
AGPV 4,100 4,100
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria 3,700 3,400
ANIF 4,085 4,161
Asobancaria 3,849 -
Banco Agrario de Colombia 3,925 4,000
Banco de Bogotá 3,950 4,025
Bancolombia 4,123 4,273
Barclays Capital 4,200 4,368
BBVA Research 4,180 4,190
BTG Pactual 4,180 4,080
CABI 4,100 4,300
Capital Economics 4,300 4,500
Citigroup Global Mkts 3,812 3,800
Corficolombiana 4,090 4,190
Credicorp Capital 4,150 4,200
29 | COP per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | COP per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
E2 Economia 3,900 3,850
Econosignal 4,200 -
EIU 3,888 3,797
Fitch Ratings 4,281 4,366
Fitch Solutions 4,050 4,100
HSBC 4,150 -
Itaú Unibanco 4,000 4,000
JPMorgan 4,150 -
Julius Baer 4,176 4,175
Moody's Analytics 3,928 3,985
Oxford Economics 4,004 4,176
Pezco Economics 3,973 4,094
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3,950 4,050
Rabobank 4,085 4,110
S&P Global Ratings 4,000 4,100
Scotiabank Colpatria 4,116 4,150
Sectorial 3,968 3,740
Standard Chartered 3,700 4,170
31 | COP per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Torino Capital 4,186 -
UBS 4,240 4,200
Public Forecasts
CAF* 3,900 3,800
Summary
Minimum 3,700 3,400
Maximum 4,300 4,500
Median 4,085 4,110
Consensus 4,048 4,091
History
30 days ago 4,036 4,054
60 days ago 4,038 4,057
90 days ago 4,059 4,073

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 76

 Colombia June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores -3.2 -4.0 -12.7 -9.5
Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria -2.9 -3.5 - -
ANIF -3.3 -3.7 -11.5 -13.8
Asobancaria -3.3 -4.0 - -
Banco Agrario de Colombia -3.3 -3.9 - -
Banco Davivienda -2.8 - -9.5 -
Banco de Bogotá -3.0 -3.3 - -
Bancolombia -2.7 -3.0 - -
Barclays Capital -3.1 -3.5 - -
BBVA Research -3.4 -3.9 -14.2 -16.2
BTG Pactual -3.1 -3.4 - -
CABI - - -10.7 -9.4
Capital Economics -2.8 -3.3 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.8 -2.6 -7.7 -7.8
Corficolombiana -2.7 - -7.8 - 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Credicorp Capital -2.9 -3.4 -7.7 -10.0
DekaBank -3.1 -2.8 - -
EIU -2.8 -2.9 -5.8 -9.8
Euromonitor Int. -3.5 -4.3 - -
Fedesarrollo -3.1 -3.3 -9.7 -12.0
Fitch Ratings -3.3 -4.0 -11.2 -14.1
Fitch Solutions -3.2 -3.7 -6.0 -5.3
Goldman Sachs -2.6 -2.9 -8.4 -9.6
HSBC -2.3 -2.7 -5.7 -6.5
Moody's Analytics -2.7 -3.5 - -
Oxford Economics -3.0 -2.9 -2.4 -1.7
Pezco Economics -2.7 -2.8 -7.6 -8.3
Rabobank -3.1 -3.6 -8.8 -9.0
Scotiabank Colpatria -3.5 -3.8 - -
Standard Chartered -3.2 -3.3 - -
Torino Capital -3.1 - -4.5 -
UBS -3.2 -3.3 -8.5 -10.3
Public Forecasts 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
CAF* -3.6 -3.5 - -
IMF -3.0 -3.3 - -
OECD -2.9 -2.6 - -
World Bank -3.1 -3.0 - -
Summary
Minimum -3.5 -4.3 -14.2 -16.2
Maximum -2.3 -2.6 -2.4 -1.7
Median -3.1 -3.3 -8.4 -9.6
Consensus -3.0 -3.4 -8.0 -9.0
History
30 days ago -3.1 -3.4 -7.9 -8.7
60 days ago -3.1 -3.4 -7.9 -8.7
90 days ago -3.2 -3.5 -7.9 -9.4

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República) and the
Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: DIAN.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 77

 Colombia June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 53.1 57.3 65.8 66.8
ANIF 58.0 59.8 69.5 73.6
Banco Davivienda 55.6 - 65.1 -
Bancolombia - - 54.8 56.7
BBVA Research 50.5 56.0 64.7 72.3
CABI 52.0 54.6 62.7 64.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 54.9 55.7 62.6 63.5
Corficolombiana 53.0 - 60.8 -
Credicorp Capital 54.6 57.3 62.3 67.3
EIU 59.0 60.4 64.8 70.2
Fedesarrollo 51.7 50.7 61.4 62.7
Fitch Ratings 54.1 55.2 65.3 69.2
Fitch Solutions 56.4 60.9 62.4 66.2
Goldman Sachs 50.5 51.3 59.0 60.9
HSBC 53.2 52.6 58.8 59.2 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 54.9 56.5 57.3 58.2
Pezco Economics 57.6 63.3 65.2 71.6
Rabobank 56.9 58.7 65.7 67.7
Torino Capital 68.4 - 72.9 -
UBS 54.0 54.9 62.5 65.2
Public Forecasts
CAF* 61.4 68.3 70.3 77.8
Summary
Minimum 50.5 50.7 54.8 56.7
Maximum 68.4 63.3 72.9 73.6
Median 54.6 56.3 62.6 66.2
Consensus 55.2 56.6 63.2 65.6
History
30 days ago 56.0 57.3 63.9 66.0
60 days ago 56.2 57.8 64.1 66.5
90 days ago 56.0 57.2 63.9 66.6

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Colombian National Directorate of Taxes & Customs (DIAN).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 78

 Colombia June 2024

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Acciones y Valores 57.8 59.9 204 211
AGPV 59.0 61.0 - -
Barclays Capital - - 201 207
Citigroup Global Mkts 59.6 59.6 198 214
Corficolombiana 58.5 - - -
Credicorp Capital 58.7 59.4 - -
EIU 54.3 55.5 195 202
Euromonitor Int. 63.1 67.1 - -
Fitch Ratings 59.8 57.2 - -
Fitch Solutions 59.6 59.8 227 250
Goldman Sachs 59.4 59.4 - -
Moody's Analytics 61.8 63.8 - -
Oxford Economics 59.3 60.3 227 237
Rabobank 60.0 60.8 218 235
Torino Capital 60.0 - 196 - 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
UBS 61.9 64.8 218 238
Public Forecasts
IMF 60.4 61.2 - -
Summary
Minimum 54.3 55.5 195 202
Maximum 63.1 67.1 227 250
Median 59.6 60.1 204 224
Consensus 59.6 60.7 209 224
History
30 days ago 59.4 60.6 209 224
60 days ago 59.5 60.7 209 224
90 days ago 59.2 60.3 209 224

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

40 International reserves, months of imports.

41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 79

 Colombia June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Colombia in the Region

Official Name Republic of Colombia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital Bogotá (10.6m)
Other cities Medellín (3.9m)
Cali (2.7m)
Area (km2) 1,138,910
Population (million, 2024 est.) 50
Population density (per km2, 2024) 43.5
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.48
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 74.9
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 95.6
Language Spanish
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-5

Economic infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2020)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 15 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 150
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 73
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 15

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,773
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,338
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 85.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 80.9
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 362
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 320
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 70.2

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 662
Railways (km): 2,141
Roadways (km): 206,102 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 24,725 Primary markets | share in %
Cartagena, Santa Marta,
Chief ports:
Turbo, Buenaventura

Political Data
Head of State: Gustavo Petro Urrego
Head of Government: Gustavo Petro Urrego
Exports Imports
Last Elections: 29 May 2022
Next Elections: 2026
Central Bank Governor Leonardo Villar

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook Primary products | share in %

Moody's Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings BB+ Negative
Fitch Ratings BB+ Stable

Strengths Weaknesses
• Plentiful natural resources, • Vulnerability to downward shifts Exports Imports
including coffee, oil and gas, coal, in international commodity prices
gold • Relatively undiversified economy
• Ports on two oceans and large informal sector
• Consolidated financial system • Shortages of skilled labor and
• Thriving tourism sector poor productivity
• High poverty and inequality rates

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 80

 Mexico June 2024

Mexico
Economy to lose steam this year from last
Economic overview: A revised estimate put GDP growth at 0.3% in Q1, up
from the preliminary 0.2% and Q4’s flat reading. The acceleration from Q4
was due to a rebound in the primary sector and stronger services growth
more than offsetting falls in mining and construction. Turning to Q2, our
Consensus is for the economy to expand more quickly than in Q1. Data
is encouraging: In April, goods exports rose by double digits, growth in
remittances and wages was strong, and the unemployment rate was among
the lowest on the continent. In politics, the incumbent MORENA party
clinched the presidency and large majorities in both houses of Congress
in the 2 June elections. This should ensure a continued focus on state-led
Oliver Reynolds development and social spending but also risks constitutional reforms that
Economist would reduce the separation of powers; market fears of the latter led the
peso and stock market to tumble post-election.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: The economy should grow faster than the Latin American
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 average this year, thanks to nearshoring investment, brisk pre-election
GDP growth (%): 0.4 2.4 2.2 government spending and strong wage growth. Moreover, the robust U.S.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.9 -4.0 -3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP): 50.2 50.0 52.9
economy should buoy exports and remittances. Potential constitutional
Inflation (%): 5.7 4.5 3.4 reforms to reduce political checks and balances and boost state-owned firms
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.3 -0.5 -0.7
are a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.2%
in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 1.9% in
2025.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
Inflation: Inflation came in at 4.7% in May, matching April’s result and
above the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range. However, the reading
was below market expectations of 4.8%. Our Consensus is for inflation to
average marginally above target in the remainder of the year due to elevated
growth in wages and government spending. FocusEconomics panelists see
consumer prices rising 4.4% on average in 2024, which is unchanged from
one month ago, and rising 3.6% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: At its 9 May meeting, the Central Bank kept the overnight
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
interbank interest rate at 11.00%. This decision was influenced by recent
increases in inflation and higher inflation forecasts for the year. Our panelists
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
still expect rate cuts to resume later this year, in order to support the economy
against an expected backdrop of declining price pressures. FocusEconomics
panelists see the Banxico target rate ending 2024 at 9.85% and ending 2025
at 7.68%.

Currency: The peso traded at MXN 18.34 per USD on 7 June, depreciating
8.0% month on month. MORENA’s landslide election victory, which could
open the door to constitutional changes, weighed on investor sentiment
and the peso. Our panelists expect the peso to strengthen versus the dollar
from current levels by end-2024, though much will depend on political
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 developments. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2024 at
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.
MXN 17.80 per USD and ending 2025 at MXN 18.51 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 81

 Mexico June 2024

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI rises in May; non-manufacturing

PMI falls
Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs Latest reading: The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF)
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 49.1 in April
to 49.8 in May. As a result, the index remained below the 50.0 no-change
threshold, but signaled a slower deterioration in manufacturing sector
operating conditions compared to the previous month. The headline print
reflected softer deteriorations in output and new orders.

Meanwhile, the non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0 in May, down from

50.1 in April, on softer readings for employment and output.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation was stable in May

Latest reading: Inflation came in at 4.7% in May, matching April’s result
Note: Seasonally-adjusted IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs.
and above the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range. However, the reading
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing was below market expectations of 4.8%. Looking at the details of the release,
sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration.
Source: The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano higher price pressures for transport and food offset lower price pressures for
de Ejecutivos de Finanzas).
clothing.

The trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
4.6% in May (April: 4.7%). Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 4.2% in
May, from April’s 4.4%.

Finally, consumer prices dropped 0.19% from the previous month in May,
contrasting the 0.20% rise seen in April.

Outlook: Mexico’s lower-than-expected May inflation reading raises the

chance of interest rate cuts at the Central Bank’s next meeting on 27 June, a
scenario which most of our panelists anticipate. That said, currency weakening
in the wake of June’s landslide election victory for the incumbent MORENA
party could give the Central Bank cause for caution.

Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.

Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising
4.4% on average in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising
3.6% on average in 2025.

FINANCIAL SECTOR | Peso sinks following MORENA election victory

Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Recent currency performance: The peso traded at MXN 18.34 per USD on
7 June, depreciating 8.0% month on month. This marked the weakest level
since early 2023, and a reversal of the appreciatory trend that had prevailed
for most of the past two years.

Political uncertainty blame: The large currency weakening is due to an

increase in perceived political risk following the 2 June general elections,
which saw the incumbent MORENA party clinch large majorities in both
houses of Congress. These majorities could facilitate constitutional reforms
that would harm the competitiveness of private firms, encode new spending
obligations into law, and reduce the robustness of the country’s democracy.
Outgoing President López Obrador—who will be replaced by President-elect
Note: Official exchange rate vs the U.S dollar. Sheinbaum in October—recently said he would push for 20 changes to the
Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
constitution in light of the election results. These changes would include the
elimination of some regulatory agencies, ensuring pension payouts are equal
to workers’ full original salary, and electing judges by popular vote.

FX outlook: The peso is likely to remain weaker than its pre-election level
through to the end of this year due to uncertainty about constitutional reform.
Much will depend on the extent to which Sheinbaum distances herself from
López Obrador once she takes office; in recent days, she has struck a more
pragmatic tone than the current president, meeting with international financial

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 82

 Mexico June 2024

organizations and stressing the importance of dialogue. In addition, the recent

peso weakening—assuming it persists—will push up price pressures; this
could cause Banxico to delay the start of its monetary easing cycle, in turn
supporting the peso.

Panelist insight: On the currency outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said:

“Over the past few years of trend MXN appreciation, sharp unwinds like the
one [following the election] typically reversed […] However, the higher degree
of political uncertainty (both domestically and with the upcoming US election)
means that this reversal may be a longer and more volatile process than
before, as was the case in the aftermath of the 2018 election.”

On Congress, Itaú Unibanco analysts Andres Pérez M. and Julio Ruiz said:

“In 2018, AMLO brought a few opposition lawmakers over to his party, giving
the ruling coalition a qualified majority in the Lower Chamber and coming
very close to it in the Senate. We believe that Sheinbaum could use a similar
strategy to achieve a qualified majority in both chambers. Besides the potential
amendments to the constitution, the governing coalition will be able to easily
pass secondary legislation reforms and budget proposals.”

On the policy direction, EIU analysts said:

“EIU continues to expect Ms Sheinbaum to be less populist and more pragmatic

than her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. However, a strong
legislative position has raised the risk that Morena will pass controversial
constitutional reforms, potentially to the detriment of the country’s business
environment.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2024 at

MXN 17.80 per USD and ending 2025 at MXN 18.51 per USD.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports increase in April

Merchandise Trade Latest reading: Merchandise exports shot up 11.4% over the same month
last year in April (March: -5.4% year-on-year). This was due to strong growth in
non-oil exports—particularly car exports, which rose by over a quarter—more
than offsetting tumbling oil exports. Healthy U.S. import demand underpinned
the strong exports reading. Meanwhile, merchandise imports soared 15.4% in
annual terms in April (March: -7.1% yoy), marking the strongest result since
January 2023.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous

month, recording a USD 3.7 billion deficit in April (March 2024: USD 2.0 billion
surplus; April 2023: USD 1.6 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed down,
with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 5.5
Note: Trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of exports and imports billion deficit in April, compared to the USD 3.4 billion deficit in March.
in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics
calculations. Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see merchandise exports rising
5.7% in 2024, which is down by 0.5 percentage points from one month ago,
and rising 4.1% in 2025.

Our panelists see merchandise imports rising 6.2% in 2024, which is down by
1.2 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 4.0% in 2025.

Our panelists see a trade deficit of USD 8.5 billion in 2024 and a trade deficit
of USD 8.3 billion in 2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 83

 Mexico June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136
GDP per Capita (USD) 10,266 8,739 10,172 11,264 13,651 14,606 14,776 15,631 16,237 16,851
GDP (USD bn) 1,306 1,120 1,312 1,464 1,790 1,932 1,971 2,101 2,198 2,297
GDP (MXN bn) 25,143 24,082 26,619 29,453 31,768 33,287 36,118 41,019 44,625 43,588
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 -4.2 10.5 10.6 7.9 4.8 8.5 13.6 8.8 -2.3
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -0.4 -8.4 6.0 3.7 3.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.2 -10.8 8.3 5.2 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.8 -0.7 -0.5 1.2 2.0 2.4 0.7 1.6 2.0 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -4.4 -17.3 9.7 7.7 19.4 4.7 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.3 -7.2 7.4 8.8 -6.9 1.8 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.0 -12.2 15.4 8.3 5.7 2.4 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.7 -8.8 6.4 4.7 3.5 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.1 2.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.2 -8.7 13.3 7.2 3.7 2.5 1.7 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.5 4.4 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -5.0 -3.7 -3.0 -3.0 -2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 45.5 51.7 50.7 48.3 47.5 51.1 51.4 52.6 52.9 53.2
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.8 11.3 10.0 9.7 9.1 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.8 3.2 7.4 7.8 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.6 3.4 5.7 7.9 5.5 4.4 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.5 3.1 7.1 8.9 1.1 2.3 4.5 4.3 3.5 3.2
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 7.25 4.25 5.50 10.50 11.25 9.85 7.68 6.85 6.81 6.92
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 7.56 4.48 5.71 10.76 11.50 9.90 7.77 6.86 6.74 6.75
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 6.86 5.47 7.55 9.04 8.96 8.70 8.05 7.81 7.79 7.66
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 18.88 19.93 20.46 19.49 16.93 17.80 18.51 18.68 18.97 18.98
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 19.25 21.49 20.29 20.12 17.75 17.23 18.33 19.52 20.30 18.98
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.9 26.9 -4.5 -17.6 -5.4 -11.8 -13.5 -13.8 -15.9 -17.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.3 2.4 -0.3 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 5.4 34.2 -10.8 -26.9 -5.5 -8.5 -8.3 -12.6 -14.6 -15.9
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 461 417 495 578 593 627 653 685 719 744
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 455 383 506 605 598 635 661 698 734 760
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.2 -9.4 18.6 16.7 2.6 5.7 4.1 5.0 5.0 3.4
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.0 -15.9 32.0 19.6 -1.0 6.2 4.0 5.5 5.2 3.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3.5 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.6 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 181 196 202 199 213 215 225 229 237 248
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.8 6.1 4.8 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9
External Debt (USD bn) 622 629 602 582 594 605 634 622 635 650
External Debt (% of GDP) 47.6 56.1 45.9 39.8 33.2 31.3 32.2 29.6 28.9 28.3
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 3.4 2.3 1.6 2.6 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.8
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.5 5.1 2.9 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 25.6 19.0 10.3 5.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -12.4 -7.2 -1.5 1.8 3.3 1.3 2.7 3.1 5.0 5.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.9 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.6 5.3 5.8 6.5 6.2
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 11.25 11.25 11.00 10.78 10.32 9.78 9.11 8.56 7.97 7.56
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 11.50 11.50 11.25 11.07 10.71 9.92 9.21 8.68 8.12 7.71
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 9.88 8.96 9.27 9.26 9.00 8.68 8.37 8.14 7.98 7.83
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 17.38 16.93 16.62 17.23 17.49 17.79 17.91 18.34 18.73 18.87
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.3 2.5 -2.7 0.7 -0.4 0.4 -1.5 0.1 -0.6 0.1
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.8 1.5 0.3 - -
Economic Activity (IGAE, ann. var. %) 3.7 3.6 4.2 2.1 1.0 1.9 4.5 -1.3 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 4.7 4.2 5.6 3.1 0.4 2.6 3.3 -3.0 - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.7 0.5 -0.9 0.2 0.6 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.6 -
IMEF Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.1 51.1 50.3 51.1 50.0 51.5 50.1 51.6 49.1 49.8
IMEF Non-Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.4 53.0 52.7 52.7 52.1 52.0 52.3 51.7 50.1 50.0
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.55 0.44 0.38 0.64 0.71 0.89 0.09 0.29 0.20 -0.19
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.7
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 16.83 17.38 18.05 17.37 16.93 17.18 17.07 16.62 17.04 17.05
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 4.0 -5.1 5.4 1.9 -0.1 -1.1 13.0 -5.4 11.4 -
Remittances (ann. var. %) 7.9 10.6 7.6 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.4 -3.4 8.3 -

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 84

 Mexico June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Actinver 2.2 1.8
AGPV 1.9 2.0
Allianz 2.0 2.2
American Chamber Mexico 3.1 2.5
Barclays Capital 3.0 1.1
BBVA Bancomer 2.0 2.4
CABI 2.2 1.8
Capital Economics 1.8 2.0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 2.1 1.6
Citibanamex 2.1 1.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.2 1.7
Credicorp Capital 2.2 1.8
Credit Agricole 1.8 1.5
DekaBank 2.1 2.2
DIW Berlin 1.8 2.2
E2 Economia 2.3 1.7
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts
Econosignal 2.3 1.5
EIU 2.3 2.3
EmergingMarketWatch 1.8 1.8
Euromonitor Int. 2.3 1.7
Fitch Ratings 2.2 2.0
Fitch Solutions 2.3 1.2
FrontierView 2.4 1.9
GBM Securities 2.5 2.0
Goldman Sachs 2.0 1.9
Grupo Financiero Banorte 2.4 1.7
Grupo Financiero BASE 1.6 0.8
HSBC 2.1 1.8
ifo Institute 1.9 2.1
Infonavit 2.4 2.0
Itaú Unibanco 2.3 1.9
JPMorgan 2.1 1.4
Julius Baer 1.9 2.1
Kiel Institute 2.0 2.3
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution
MAPFRE Economics 1.9 1.9
Monex 2.3 1.8
Moody's Analytics 2.4 1.5
Oxford Economics 1.9 2.1
Pantheon Macroeconomics 1.8 2.2
Prognosis 1.9 -
S&P Global Ratings 2.5 1.8
Scotiabank 2.4 1.6
Société Générale 1.9 2.1
Standard Chartered 2.4 1.8
Thorne & Associates 2.2 1.9
Torino Capital 3.3 -
UBS 2.2 1.9
Ve Por Más 1.9 2.3
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 2.5 -
IMF 2.4 1.4
OECD 2.2 2.0
United Nations* 2.3 1.9
World Bank 2.3 2.1
Notes and sources Summary
Minimum 1.6 0.8
* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Maximum 3.3 2.5
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
Median 2.2 1.9
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file. Consensus 2.2 1.9
History
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional 30 days ago 2.2 1.9
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics 60 days ago 2.3 1.9
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
90 days ago 2.3 1.9
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 85

 Mexico June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
American Chamber Mexico 2.3 2.1 4.3 1.4
Barclays Capital 2.1 1.1 3.0 1.1
BBVA Bancomer 2.5 2.4 4.5 3.4
CABI - - 5.0 4.0
Capital Economics 2.8 1.8 3.2 0.5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 2.5 1.8 4.4 2.7
Citibanamex 2.4 1.8 0.5 -0.8
Credicorp Capital 2.8 2.2 5.2 2.5
EIU 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.0
Euromonitor Int. 2.6 1.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 3.0 1.6 3.5 -0.5
FrontierView 2.2 1.9 - -
GBM Securities 2.5 2.5 6.5 3.7
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8
Grupo Financiero Banorte 3.8 2.4 7.7 2.1 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Grupo Financiero BASE 2.6 2.3 3.8 1.8
HSBC 2.4 2.8 7.5 5.5
JPMorgan - - 5.0 2.0
MAPFRE Economics 1.6 1.2 -3.3 -0.4
Moody's Analytics 3.5 3.4 4.0 -2.3
Oxford Economics 1.6 1.2 -3.2 -0.2
Prognosis 3.0 - 10.0 -
S&P Global Ratings 2.2 1.8 6.7 2.2
Société Générale 2.3 2.5 - -
Torino Capital 3.3 - 14.4 -
UBS 2.6 2.1 7.9 3.9
Public Forecasts
IMF* 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.4
OECD 2.9 2.5 5.6 3.2
World Bank 2.1 2.0 6.9 5.8
Summary
Minimum 1.6 1.1 -3.3 -2.3
Maximum 3.8 3.4 14.4 5.8 8 | Investment | variation in %
Median 2.5 2.1 4.5 2.1
Consensus 2.5 2.1 4.7 2.0
History
30 days ago 2.5 2.0 4.6 1.9
60 days ago 2.5 2.1 4.6 1.8
90 days ago 2.4 2.2 4.2 1.8

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 86

 Mexico June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in %

Industry Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital - - 3.4 3.5
BBVA Bancomer - - 3.1 3.3
Capital Economics 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.2
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 2.4 1.9 - -
Citibanamex 1.5 3.5 3.0 3.3
Credicorp Capital - - 2.6 2.9
DIW Berlin - - 3.2 3.3
E2 Economia 0.7 1.5 - -
EIU 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.1
Euromonitor Int. 0.9 1.9 3.1 3.5
Fitch Ratings - - 2.7 2.7
Fitch Solutions - - 2.6 3.2
FrontierView - - 3.1 3.4
GBM Securities 1.9 2.0 - -
Goldman Sachs - - 2.5 2.5 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Grupo Financiero Banorte 2.4 1.3 2.9 -
Grupo Financiero BASE 3.0 - 2.9 3.9
HSBC 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.0
Moody's Analytics 0.5 0.7 - -
Oxford Economics 1.1 2.2 3.1 3.8
Prognosis 2.1 - 3.0 -
S&P Global Ratings - - 3.3 3.4
Scotiabank - - 3.0 3.4
Société Générale - - 3.1 3.5
Torino Capital - - 3.3 -
UBS 4.1 3.4 2.9 3.2
Ve Por Más 1.8 2.0 2.8 3.0
Public Forecasts
IMF - - 2.8 3.2
OECD - - 2.9 3.0
Summary
Minimum 0.5 0.7 2.2 2.2
Maximum 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.9 12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Median 1.9 2.0 3.0 3.2
Consensus 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.2
History
30 days ago 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.3
60 days ago 2.5 2.1 3.0 3.3
90 days ago 2.7 2.3 3.1 3.3

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Industrial production, annual variation in %.

11 Industrial production, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 87

 Mexico June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Actinver -5.9 -4.0 - -
AGPV -3.5 -2.9 - -
American Chamber Mexico -4.5 -3.4 - -
Barclays Capital -5.9 -3.0 48.8 50.2
BBVA Bancomer -4.9 -3.0 50.2 50.3
CABI -4.8 -4.0 50.0 51.0
Capital Economics -4.5 -3.3 49.0 50.5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex -5.0 -3.8 50.0 50.0
Citibanamex -6.2 -4.9 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -5.4 -3.9 54.1 55.4
Credicorp Capital -5.0 -3.6 51.9 52.9
DekaBank -4.7 -3.6 - -
EIU -5.0 -3.7 48.5 49.9
Euromonitor Int. -4.4 -3.8 - -
Fitch Ratings -5.1 -4.1 - - 15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
Fitch Solutions -5.2 -3.7 48.4 49.0
GBM Securities -4.0 - 50.5 -
Goldman Sachs -5.0 -3.9 50.5 51.5
Grupo Financiero Banorte -5.4 -3.2 50.1 50.6
Grupo Financiero BASE -5.0 -4.0 49.0 51.0
HSBC -4.9 -3.7 48.8 49.0
Infonavit -5.1 -3.2 - -
JPMorgan -5.1 -4.8 - -
MAPFRE Economics -4.5 -2.8 - -
Moody's Analytics -6.3 -5.1 - -
Oxford Economics -4.4 -2.7 49.1 49.6
Prognosis -5.0 - 50.2 -
Société Générale -4.9 -3.9 56.1 57.2
Torino Capital -3.5 - 60.7 -
UBS -4.6 -4.0 50.1 50.7
Public Forecasts
IMF -5.9 -3.0 55.5 55.4
World Bank -5.4 -3.0 - - 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Summary
Minimum -6.3 -5.1 48.4 49.0
Maximum -3.5 -2.7 60.7 57.2
Median -5.0 -3.7 50.1 50.6
Consensus -5.0 -3.7 51.1 51.4
History
30 days ago -5.0 -3.7 51.0 51.3
60 days ago -4.8 -3.7 50.6 50.8
90 days ago -4.7 -3.8 50.1 50.2

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 88

 Mexico June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012-2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Actinver 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.8
AGPV - - 4.0 3.8
Allianz - - 4.5 3.8
American Chamber Mexico 4.0 3.6 - -
Barclays Capital 4.3 3.5 4.2 3.8
BBVA Bancomer 3.9 3.5 4.3 3.6
CABI 4.5 3.8 - -
Capital Economics 4.2 4.0 4.8 4.0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 3.8 4.0 4.5 3.6
Citibanamex 4.3 3.9 4.6 4.0
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 4.6 4.0
Credicorp Capital 4.2 3.7 4.6 3.9
Credit Agricole - - 3.8 3.5
DekaBank - - 4.5 3.7
DIW Berlin - - 3.7 3.1 19 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
E2 Economia 3.8 3.5 - -
Econosignal 4.3 3.9 4.4 4.2
EIU 3.8 3.4 4.5 3.5
EmergingMarketWatch 4.1 3.7 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 4.2 3.5
Fitch Ratings - - 4.3 3.9
Fitch Solutions 4.5 3.8 4.8 3.5
FrontierView - - 4.1 3.4
GBM Securities 4.4 3.7 - -
Goldman Sachs 4.1 3.2 4.6 3.6
Grupo Financiero Banorte 4.3 3.7 4.6 3.8
Grupo Financiero BASE 4.4 3.5 4.7 3.8
HSBC 3.9 3.6 4.4 3.6
ifo Institute - - 4.2 3.3
Infonavit 4.2 3.7 4.5 3.9
Itaú Unibanco 4.3 3.9 - -
JPMorgan 3.9 3.7 4.4 3.5
Julius Baer - - 4.2 3.3 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Kiel Institute 3.9 3.7 4.7 3.6
MAPFRE Economics 3.5 3.6 4.4 3.5
Monex 4.2 3.9 - -
Moody's Analytics 4.0 3.2 4.3 3.3
Oxford Economics 3.8 3.4 4.5 3.5
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 4.4 3.6
Prognosis 4.0 - 4.3 -
S&P Global Ratings 4.0 3.4 4.5 3.5
Scotiabank 4.5 3.7 4.6 3.9
Société Générale - - 4.4 3.7
Standard Chartered - - 4.0 3.2
Thorne & Associates 4.2 3.7 4.6 3.7
Torino Capital 3.4 - 4.3 -
UBS 3.9 3.5 4.4 3.5
Ve Por Más 4.0 3.8 4.6 3.9
Public Forecasts
IMF 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.3
OECD - - 4.5 3.1 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
United Nations* - - 4.0 3.1
World Bank - - 4.1 3.5
Summary
Minimum 3.4 3.0 3.7 3.1
Maximum 4.5 4.0 4.8 4.2
Median 4.0 3.7 4.4 3.6
Consensus 4.1 3.6 4.4 3.6
History
30 days ago 4.0 3.6 4.4 3.6
60 days ago 4.1 3.6 4.4 3.6
90 days ago 4.1 3.6 4.3 3.6

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 89

 Mexico June 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012-2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Actinver 10.25 8.25
AGPV 8.00 7.00
American Chamber Mexico 10.00 9.25
Barclays Capital 10.70 8.80
BBVA Bancomer 9.75 7.75
CABI 10.00 7.00
Capital Economics 10.00 8.00
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 10.00 8.00
Citibanamex 9.25 7.25
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.50 6.50
Credicorp Capital 10.00 7.75
Credit Agricole 9.50 7.75
DekaBank 10.00 7.00
Econosignal 9.75 7.00
EIU 10.25 8.25
Fitch Solutions 9.75 8.00
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst
GBM Securities 10.00 7.25
Goldman Sachs 9.50 7.75
Grupo Financiero Banorte 10.00 7.50
Grupo Financiero BASE 10.25 7.25
HSBC 10.00 7.50
Infonavit 10.50 9.25
Itaú Unibanco 10.00 8.00
JPMorgan 10.50 -
MAPFRE Economics 10.00 7.50
Monex 10.00 8.00
Oxford Economics 9.00 6.00
Pantheon Macroeconomics 9.75 7.50
Prognosis 9.75 -
S&P Global Ratings 10.25 7.50
Scotiabank 10.00 8.00
Société Générale 10.00 -
Thorne & Associates 9.75 8.00
UBS 10.00 7.50
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Ve Por Más 9.75 7.75
Public Forecasts
IMF* 10.00 8.00
Summary
Minimum 8.00 6.00
Maximum 10.70 9.25
Median 10.00 7.75
Consensus 9.85 7.68
History
30 days ago 9.73 7.69
60 days ago 9.38 7.42
90 days ago 9.26 7.25

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.
** Others refers to the Consensus Forecast additional panelists who are not shown in the
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Mexico report due to space constraints. A full panelist
breakdown is available in the report’s accompanying Excel file.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (Banxico,
Banco de México) and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto
Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: INEGI.
19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
22 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop). Source: Banxico.
23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 90

 Mexico June 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
Actinver 17.50 18.00
AGPV 18.00 18.00
American Chamber Mexico 17.39 18.11
Barclays Capital 18.00 18.00
BBVA Bancomer 18.05 19.05
CABI 18.50 19.00
Capital Economics 19.00 20.00
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 17.54 17.97
Citibanamex 17.74 18.72
Citigroup Global Mkts 17.83 18.79
Credicorp Capital 17.41 18.17
Credit Agricole 18.00 19.00
DekaBank 17.63 19.08
E2 Economia 17.00 17.50
Econosignal 17.70 19.20
EIU 17.76 18.14
29 | MXN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | MXN per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst
Fitch Ratings 18.00 18.50
Fitch Solutions 18.00 18.50
GBM Securities 18.20 18.52
Grupo Financiero Banorte 17.70 18.66
Grupo Financiero BASE 16.90 17.00
HSBC 17.50 -
Infonavit 17.20 17.70
Itaú Unibanco 17.90 18.90
JPMorgan 17.50 -
Julius Baer 17.38 18.47
MAPFRE Economics 17.87 19.47
Monex 17.80 18.40
Moody's Analytics 17.09 17.20
Oxford Economics 17.92 19.50
Prognosis 18.50 -
S&P Global Ratings 17.50 18.00
Scotiabank 18.20 19.50
Société Générale 16.70 18.04
31 | MXN per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution
Standard Chartered 17.45 17.80
Torino Capital 19.10 -
UBS 18.75 19.75
Ve Por Más 18.10 18.80
Summary
Minimum 16.70 17.00
Maximum 19.10 20.00
Median 17.78 18.50
Consensus 17.80 18.51
History
30 days ago 17.82 18.50
60 days ago 17.92 18.51
90 days ago 18.30 18.91

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Macrobond Financial AB.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecast during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecast during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 91

 Mexico June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Actinver -0.7 -0.9 - -
American Chamber Mexico -1.1 - - -
Barclays Capital -1.2 -1.6 -8.2 -
BBVA Bancomer -0.7 -0.7 - -
CABI - - -2.6 4.7
Capital Economics -0.8 -1.5 - -
Citibanamex -0.6 0.2 -6.1 3.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.6 0.4 - -
Credicorp Capital -0.5 -0.6 -8.0 -10.0
Credit Agricole -1.4 -1.0 - -
DekaBank -0.6 -0.8 - -
EIU -0.3 -0.5 -1.4 -15.7
Euromonitor Int. -0.6 -0.6 -7.4 -4.2
Fitch Ratings -0.5 -0.6 -5.9 -6.2
Fitch Solutions -1.0 -0.8 -17.7 -11.7 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
GBM Securities -1.2 - - -
Goldman Sachs -0.4 -0.7 -10.1 -12.5
Grupo Financiero Banorte -1.6 -1.5 - -
Grupo Financiero BASE -1.2 -1.2 1.8 -4.0
HSBC -0.5 -0.6 -7.0 -5.0
Infonavit -0.9 -0.9 - -
JPMorgan -0.9 -1.3 -10.8 -16.1
MAPFRE Economics -0.5 -0.4 - -
Moody's Analytics 1.1 1.0 - -
Oxford Economics 0.3 -0.2 -6.9 -14.2
Prognosis -0.8 - -21.2 -
Société Générale -0.5 -0.9 - -
Standard Chartered -0.8 -0.9 - -
Torino Capital -0.1 - -7.2 -
UBS -0.9 -0.9 -16.8 -16.0
Public Forecasts
IMF -0.8 -0.8 - -
OECD -0.2 -0.3 - - 34 | Trade Balance | USD bn
World Bank -0.4 -0.6 - -
Summary
Minimum -1.6 -1.6 -21.2 -16.1
Maximum 1.1 1.0 1.8 4.7
Median -0.6 -0.7 -7.3 -10.0
Consensus -0.6 -0.7 -8.5 -8.3
History
30 days ago -0.6 -0.7 -12.9 -9.0
60 days ago -0.6 -0.7 -14.1 -10.4
90 days ago -0.7 -0.7 -13.5 -13.3

35 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.
35 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 92

 Mexico June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 667 - 675 -
CABI 608 626 610 621
Citibanamex 604 617 610 614
Credicorp Capital 617 649 625 659
EIU 596 594 597 610
Euromonitor Int. 645 690 652 694
Fitch Ratings 629 661 635 667
Fitch Solutions 614 691 632 703
Goldman Sachs 628 668 638 681
Grupo Financiero BASE 614 632 612 636
HSBC 618 640 625 645
JPMorgan 651 687 662 703
Oxford Economics 668 682 675 697
Prognosis 610 - 631 -
Torino Capital 628 - 635 - 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
UBS 635 647 652 663
Public Forecasts
IMF* 622 647 662 685
Summary
Minimum 596 594 597 610
Maximum 668 691 675 703
Median 623 649 634 663
Consensus 627 653 635 661
History
30 days ago 630 658 643 667
60 days ago 632 663 646 673
90 days ago 632 662 646 675

38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 Exports, annual variation in %.
37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 93

 Mexico June 2024

External Sector | International Reserves and External Debt

International Reserves and External Debt 40 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 210 220 - -
Barclays Capital 205 220 - -
Citibanamex 216 220 - -
Credicorp Capital 218 220 - -
EIU 203 204 593 596
Euromonitor Int. 242 271 - -
Fitch Ratings 215 219 - -
Fitch Solutions 219 236 - -
GBM Securities 205 - - -
Goldman Sachs 218 219 - -
JPMorgan 219 220 - -
Moody's Analytics 231 244 - -
Oxford Economics 219 229 602 624
Prognosis 220 - - -
Torino Capital 207 - - - 41 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
UBS 195 200 620 681
Public Forecasts
IMF* 225 234 - -
Summary
Minimum 195 200 593 596
Maximum 242 271 620 681
Median 217 220 602 624
Consensus 215 225 605 634
History
30 days ago 215 224 605 633
60 days ago 215 224 609 640
90 days ago 214 223 612 642

42 | External Debt | % of GDP

43 | External Debt | USD bn

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
40 International reserves, months of imports.
41 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
42 External debt as % of GDP.
43 External debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 94

 Mexico June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Mexico in the Region

Official Name United Mexican States Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital Mexico City (21.8m)
Other cities Guadalajara (5.2m)
Monterrey (4.8m)
Area (km2) 1,964,375
Population (million, 2024 est.) 131
Population density (per km2, 2024) 66.6
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.72
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 74.6
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 95.2
Language Spanish and Indigenous
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-6 to GMT-8

Economic infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2020)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 19 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 98
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 76
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 17

Energy (2023)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5,921
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 7,563
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 333
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 297
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1,488
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,851
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 454

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 1,485
Railways (km): 23,389
Roadways (km): 704,884 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 2,900 Primary markets | share in %
Altamira, Coatzacoalcos, Lazaro Cardenas,
Chief ports:
Manzanillo, Veracruz

Political Data
Head of State: Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Head of Government: Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Exports Imports
Last Elections: 2 June 2024
Next Elections: 2030
Central Bank Governor Victoria Rodriquez

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook Primary products | share in %

Moody's Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings BBB Stable
Fitch Ratings BBB- Stable

Strengths Weaknesses
• Commitment to sound fiscal • Drug-related violence Exports Imports
policy • Uncertain business environment
• Large domestic market
• Tariff-free access to U.S. market

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 95

 Peru June 2024

Peru
Economy to recover this year
Economic overview: The economy grew by 1.4% year on year in Q1 2024,
recovering from Q4’s 0.4% decline and achieving the first expansion since
late 2022. Private consumption rose at a steeper pace amid recovering real
incomes and stronger employment. Public investment boomed by over a
third, and private investment returned to growth following six straight quarterly
contractions, aided by lower interest rates. That said, the contribution of net
trade weakened, as exports slowed and import growth accelerated. Turning
to Q2, our Consensus is for a near-doubling in the rate of annual GDP growth.
The continued decline in inflation in April–May will be boosting purchasing
power and consumer spending, while 200 basis points of rate cuts since
Oliver Reynolds August 2023 will be aiding investment. In addition, recent record-high prices
Senior Economist for copper and gold—Peru’s top two exports—bode well for fiscal revenue.

GDP outlook: GDP is forecast to rebound this year, as improved weather

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages supports the primary sector from Q2 onwards and lower inflation boosts
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 private spending. However, export growth is seen slowing amid softer
GDP growth (%): 1.7 1.5 2.9 copper production growth, and political instability will continue to weigh on
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.4 -2.5 -1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP): 34.7 33.3 33.5
investor sentiment. A government collapse and flare-ups of social unrest
Inflation (%): 4.6 3.8 2.3 are downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.5%
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.7 -0.1 -0.8
in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.7% in 2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Inflation: Inflation came in at 2.0% in May, down from April’s 2.4%. May’s
result was the lowest inflation rate since December 2020. Inflation will
average lower this year than last on the lagged effects of past interest rate
hikes, and lower food price pressures as weather conditions grow more
favorable. However, a looser-than-expected fiscal stance poses an upside
risk. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 2.6% on average
in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 2.4% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: At its 9 May meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP)
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
cut its key policy interest rate from 6.00% to 5.75%. The BCRP’s decision
to extend its easing cycle was due to moderating inflation in recent months.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
Our panel sees the Bank delivering further rate cuts later this year as
inflation should remain comfortably within the BCRP’s 1.0% –3.0% target
range. FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2024
at 4.85% and ending 2025 at 4.09%.

Currency: The sol traded at PEN 3.75 per USD on 7 June, depreciating 0.5%
month on month. The PEN is expected to be close to its current level against
the USD by end-2024 despite further monetary easing. Volatility in prices
for key exports such as copper, gold and hydrocarbons are a two-sided risk,
while sociopolitical instability poses a depreciatory risk. FocusEconomics
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 panelists see the sol ending 2024 at PEN 3.76 per USD and ending 2025 at
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.
PEN 3.75 per USD.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 96

 Peru June 2024

REAL SECTOR | Economy records fastest upturn since Q4 2022 in the

first quarter
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % GDP reading: According to a preliminary estimate, GDP rebounded,
expanding 1.4% year on year in the first quarter, contrasting the 0.4%
contraction logged in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1’s reading marked the
best result since Q4 2022.

Drivers: Private consumption accelerated to 1.2% year-on-year in the first

quarter, which marked the best reading since Q4 2022 (Q4 2023: +0.2%
yoy). Lower inflation and higher employment supported the reading. Public
spending growth, meanwhile, softened to 3.2% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +9.2%
yoy). Fixed investment growth improved to 5.8% in Q1, up from the 0.1%
expansion logged in the previous quarter and driven by higher public and
private investment. On the external front, exports of goods and services
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on- growth moderated to 2.5% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +4.9% yoy). Conversely, imports
year variation %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. of goods and services growth picked up to 5.4% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +3.0% yoy),
marking the best reading since Q3 2022.

GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to pick up further later this
year as interest rates and inflation continue to fall.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, EIU analysts said:

“We forecast that GDP will rebound strongly in 2024, expanding by 2.5%, after
political turmoil and extreme weather led to a contraction of 0.6% in 2023.
Growth this year will come from lower inflation and interest rates, and from
positive base effects. However, only modest improvement in the business
environment under Ms Boluarte, uncertainty over whether she will remain
in office and restrained global economic growth will preclude a stronger
performance.”

Itaú Unibanco’s Mario Mesquita said:

“We now expect the economy to grow by 2.7% in 2024, slightly up from our
previous forecast of 2.5%, driven by our call of higher growth in China. We
expect activity to gain traction in 2Q24, as weather shocks fade and the
economy benefits from even better terms-of-trade.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.5%

in 2024, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
expanding 2.7% in 2025.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity dips in March

Economic Activity | annual variation in % Latest reading: Economic activity declined 0.3% year on year in March
(February: +3.0% yoy). March’s figure was partly due to a deterioration in
the commerce sector. In contrast, the agricultural sector rebounded. Lastly,
activity in the manufacturing sector declined at a sharper rate, while mining
and hydrocarbons output decelerated.

On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 0.3% in March, contrasting

February’s 0.9% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the
annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 0.1%, down
from February’s 0.0%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level since December

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of economic activity in %. 2020 in May
Source: Peru National Statistics Institute (INEI).
Latest reading: Inflation came in at 2.0% in May, which was down from April’s
2.4%. May’s result represented the lowest inflation rate since December 2020.
Looking at the details of the release, prices for recreation and entertainment

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 97

 Peru June 2024

Inflation | Consumer Price Index grew at a weaker rate in May, and prices for food and beverages declined at
a sharper rate.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell 0.09% in May, following

April’s 0.05% fall.

Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in
at 4.0% in May (April: 4.5%).

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

2.6% on average in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one
month ago, and rising 2.4% on average in 2025.

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.

Source: INEI.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 98

 Peru June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 32.1 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.7 34.1 34.4 34.8 35.1 35.5
GDP per Capita (USD) 7,251 6,329 6,845 7,312 7,914 8,221 8,554 8,951 9,374 9,790
GDP (USD bn) 233 206 226 244 267 280 294 311 329 347
GDP (PEN bn) 778 722 878 937 999 1,048 1,100 1,169 1,230 1,299
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.9 -7.2 21.7 6.6 6.7 4.9 5.0 6.2 5.3 5.6
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 2.2 -10.9 13.4 2.7 -0.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 -9.9 12.4 3.6 0.1 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.3 7.9 4.8 -0.2 4.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.3 -16.2 34.6 0.7 -5.4 2.0 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.1 -19.7 13.3 5.2 4.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.9 -15.2 17.9 3.9 -1.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.3 3.3
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -1.7 -12.6 18.7 1.0 -6.8 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.5 -13.3 17.2 3.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 12.8 11.3 7.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -8.9 -2.5 -1.7 -2.8 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 26.5 34.5 35.8 33.9 32.9 33.4 33.6 33.3 33.3 33.8
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 9.1 37.7 -4.0 0.4 2.6 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 2.0 6.4 8.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.1 1.8 4.0 7.9 6.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.2 0.2 9.3 10.8 1.8 1.2 2.4 - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.25 0.25 2.50 7.50 6.75 4.85 4.09 3.93 3.94 4.04
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.31 3.62 3.99 3.81 3.70 3.76 3.75 3.73 3.75 3.75
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.34 3.50 3.88 3.84 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.76 3.74 3.74
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.4 1.9 -4.7 -9.7 2.2 -0.9 -2.0 -2.4 -2.6 -3.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 0.9 -2.1 -4.0 0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 6.9 8.1 15.1 10.2 17.7 15.9 15.8 16.6 16.3 16.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 48.0 42.8 63.1 66.2 67.5 69.5 71.9 75.7 79.6 83.4
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 41.1 34.7 48.0 56.0 49.8 53.6 56.1 59.2 63.3 67.4
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -2.2 -10.7 47.4 4.8 2.0 2.9 3.5 5.3 5.1 4.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -1.8 -15.5 38.2 16.7 -11.0 7.5 4.7 5.5 6.9 6.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.2 -0.4 5.8 11.7 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 68.4 74.9 78.5 72.2 71.3 74.3 77.4 84.3 88.6 98.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 20.0 25.9 19.6 15.5 17.2 16.6 16.6 17.1 16.8 17.5
External Debt (USD bn) 80.8 89.7 102.0 101.7 105.0 110.7 115.6 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 34.7 43.4 45.1 41.6 39.3 39.5 39.3 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -0.9 -0.4 1.4 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.1 0.2 1.2 1.1 2.9 3.7 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 9.2 3.2 0.8 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -5.7 0.1 5.8 0.9 2.7 1.3 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.3 4.9 2.5 2.9 4.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.8 3.0 5.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.5 6.5 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.6 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 5.5 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 7.50 6.75 6.25 5.55 5.18 4.93 4.73 4.45 4.28 4.16
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.79 3.70 3.72 3.74 3.74 3.74 3.73 3.73 3.75 3.76
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 0.8
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. %) 1.2 0.0 -0.2 1.3 -1.6 0.7 0.9 -0.3 - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) -0.2 -1.1 -0.7 0.6 -0.7 1.5 3.0 -0.3 - -
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -3.7 -9.2 -3.2 -2.8 -10.9 -4.2 -4.7 -9.5 - -
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.0 1.8 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.4 7.2 7.3 7.7 7.7 -
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 44.1 40.4 38.7 37.6 41.2 43.8 47.2 50.8 50.0 47.5
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.38 0.02 -0.32 -0.16 0.41 0.02 0.56 1.01 -0.05 -0.09
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 5.6 5.0 4.3 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0 2.4 2.0
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.70 3.79 3.84 3.73 3.70 3.80 3.77 3.72 3.75 3.75
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 - -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.6 2.5 8.1 13.5 1.5 10.0 5.7 -10.1 - -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -13.8 -5.9 1.5 -9.8 -8.2 6.5 -0.8 -5.7 - -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 99

 Peru June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q4 21-Q4 25 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025
AGPV 3.0 3.1
Allianz 2.0 2.5
Barclays Capital 1.5 2.0
BBVA Research 2.7 2.9
BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.0 2.5
BTG Pactual 2.1 3.0
CABI 2.5 3.3
Capital Economics 2.3 2.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.9
Corficolombiana 2.5 -
DekaBank 2.4 2.5
E2 Economia 2.5 2.5
Econosignal 3.0 3.0
EIU 2.5 2.6
EmergingMarketWatch 2.7 3.0
Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.7
3 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Ratings 2.6 2.4
Fitch Solutions 2.6 2.3
FrontierView 2.2 2.4
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.1
HSBC 2.5 2.7
IEDEP - CCL 2.6 2.7
IPE 2.4 2.8
Itaú Unibanco 2.7 3.0
JPMorgan 2.8 3.0
Julius Baer 2.4 3.6
Kiel Institute 2.0 2.8
Macroconsult 2.7 2.3
Moody's Analytics 2.2 3.1
Oxford Economics 2.6 3.4
Pantheon Macroeconomics 2.8 3.0
Pezco Economics 1.2 1.6
Rabobank 2.5 2.9
Rimac Seguros 2.5 2.7
S&P Global Ratings 2.7 3.0
5 | GDP 2024 | Panelist Distribution Scotiabank 2.7 2.5
Standard Chartered 2.6 2.9
Thorne & Associates 2.5 3.0
Torino Capital 1.9 -
UBS 2.8 2.6
Public Forecasts
CAF 2.8 2.8
CEPAL 2.5 -
IMF 2.5 2.7
OECD 2.3 2.8
United Nations* 2.3 2.5
World Bank 2.7 2.4
Summary
Minimum 1.2 1.6
Maximum 3.0 3.6
Median 2.5 2.8
Consensus 2.5 2.7
History
30 days ago 2.4 2.7
60 days ago 2.4 2.7
90 days ago 2.3 2.8

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

General:
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %.

2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 100

 Peru June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 1.6 2.2 -1.8 1.1
BBVA Research 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.0 2.5 4.4 2.0
BTG Pactual 2.1 3.2 1.8 2.5
Capital Economics 2.5 1.6 2.1 3.4
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.2
EIU 2.9 2.5 1.5 2.6
Euromonitor Int. 2.1 2.7 - -
Fitch Solutions 2.0 2.4 0.6 2.2
FrontierView 2.2 2.5 - -
Goldman Sachs 2.1 3.9 1.5 3.7
HSBC 3.0 2.7 - -
IEDEP - CCL 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.5
IPE 1.7 2.8 2.6 1.5
Macroconsult - - 2.0 2.9 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Moody's Analytics 2.6 4.0 1.1 1.1
Oxford Economics 1.5 2.9 2.5 1.5
Pezco Economics 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.4
Rabobank 1.6 2.0 0.9 2.0
Rimac Seguros 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.1
S&P Global Ratings 2.4 2.8 1.3 2.1
Scotiabank 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.8
Thorne & Associates 2.2 3.2 1.9 3.5
Torino Capital 1.1 - 3.3 -
UBS 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.2
Public Forecasts
CAF 1.7 2.6 2.8 3.0
OECD 1.7 2.8 3.8 2.7
World Bank 2.6 2.3 - -
Summary
Minimum 1.1 1.5 -1.8 1.1
Maximum 3.0 4.0 4.4 3.7
Median 2.2 2.7 2.0 2.6 8 | Investment | variation in %
Consensus 2.2 2.6 2.0 2.5
History
30 days ago 2.2 2.7 1.9 2.6
60 days ago 2.3 2.6 1.9 2.7
90 days ago 2.1 2.6 1.7 2.7

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

7 Private consumption, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Peru June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Manufacturing and Unemployment 10 | Manufacturing | variation in %

Manufacturing Unemployment
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BBVA Research 2.7 2.7 - -
BCP/Credicorp Capital - - 6.5 6.6
BTG Pactual 3.1 2.8 7.1 7.1
Capital Economics - - 6.7 6.5
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 7.3 7.4
E2 Economia 2.4 1.6 - -
Econosignal - - 7.0 6.8
EIU 0.0 1.5 6.0 6.0
Euromonitor Int. - - 7.1 7.2
Fitch Solutions - - 6.5 6.5
HSBC - - 6.7 6.7
IEDEP - CCL 1.8 3.4 7.2 7.0
Oxford Economics 2.6 3.2 6.6 6.9
Pezco Economics 2.0 2.2 6.8 6.7
11 | Manufacturing | evol. of forecasts
Rabobank 3.9 2.5 6.6 6.3
Scotiabank 3.9 2.6 7.4 6.8
Thorne & Associates 1.8 2.1 - -
Torino Capital - - 7.2 -
UBS - - 7.0 6.5
Public Forecasts
CAF 2.5 3.0 7.2 7.1
Summary
Minimum 0.0 1.5 6.0 6.0
Maximum 3.9 3.4 7.4 7.4
Median 2.5 2.6 7.0 6.8
Consensus 2.4 2.5 6.9 6.8
History
30 days ago 2.7 2.4 6.8 6.7
60 days ago 3.0 2.6 6.8 6.7
90 days ago 3.1 2.9 7.0 6.8

12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e
Informática del Perú) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.

11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: BCRP.
13 Unemployment, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 102

 Peru June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt

% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital -3.0 -3.0 34.6 37.1
BBVA Research -2.3 -2.2 33.5 34.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital -2.2 -1.8 33.4 33.6
BTG Pactual -2.0 -1.5 33.5 33.3
CABI -2.5 -2.0 34.0 33.0
Capital Economics -2.5 -2.0 34.0 34.0
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.6 -1.5 32.6 32.5
DekaBank -2.9 -2.3 - -
EIU -3.1 -2.6 36.4 37.0
Euromonitor Int. -2.6 -2.2 - -
Fitch Ratings -2.5 -2.4 32.2 33.1
Fitch Solutions -3.0 -2.4 30.2 29.9
Goldman Sachs -2.0 -1.6 30.0 30.6
HSBC -2.3 -1.9 - -
15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
IEDEP - CCL -2.9 -2.4 34.2 34.1
IPE -3.0 -2.8 - -
Macroconsult -3.1 -2.8 34.1 33.2
Moody's Analytics -2.8 -2.4 33.1 34.2
Oxford Economics -2.2 -1.6 32.6 32.2
Pezco Economics -2.5 -2.3 34.3 35.3
Rabobank -2.6 -2.4 33.4 33.6
Rimac Seguros -2.5 -2.2 - -
Scotiabank -2.5 -2.2 - -
Thorne & Associates -2.3 -2.0 33.8 33.5
Torino Capital -3.3 - 34.3 -
UBS -2.4 -2.2 34.0 33.9
Public Forecasts
CAF -2.5 -2.2 - -
IMF -2.5 -2.0 33.0 33.3
World Bank -2.4 -2.0 33.5 33.8
Summary
Minimum -3.3 -3.0 30.0 29.9 16 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Maximum -1.6 -1.5 36.4 37.1
Median -2.5 -2.2 33.5 33.6
Consensus -2.6 -2.2 33.4 33.6
History
30 days ago -2.5 -2.2 33.7 33.8
60 days ago -2.5 -2.2 33.8 34.0
90 days ago -2.5 -2.2 34.0 34.2

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

14 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.

15 Fiscal balance, change in 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Public debt as % of GDP.
17 Public debt, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 103

 Peru June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 18 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices

variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Allianz - - 3.0 3.5
Barclays Capital 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6
BBVA Research 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.4
BCP/Credicorp Capital 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6
BTG Pactual 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
CABI 3.5 3.5 - -
Capital Economics 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.9
Corficolombiana 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.0
DekaBank - - 2.6 2.4
E2 Economia 2.7 2.5 - -
EIU 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
EmergingMarketWatch 2.5 2.3 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 2.5 2.2
19 | Inflation | Q4 20 - Q4 24 | in %
Fitch Ratings - - 2.9 2.8
Fitch Solutions 2.9 2.3 3.0 2.6
Goldman Sachs 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.4
HSBC 2.9 2.5 - -
IEDEP - CCL 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.7
IPE 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.3
Itaú Unibanco 2.8 2.5 - -
Julius Baer 2.5 2.6 - -
Kiel Institute 3.1 2.4 2.7 2.5
Macroconsult 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.0
Moody's Analytics 2.9 2.3 2.7 2.2
Oxford Economics 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8
Pantheon Macroeconomics - - 2.5 2.3
Pezco Economics 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.4
Rabobank 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.8
Rimac Seguros 2.4 2.2 - -
S&P Global Ratings 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3
Scotiabank 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 20 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcst
Standard Chartered - - 2.7 2.3
Thorne & Associates 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.3
Torino Capital 3.5 - 2.5 -
UBS 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4
Public Forecasts
CAF 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.0
IMF 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.0
OECD - - 2.8 2.1
United Nations* - - 4.0 2.8
World Bank - - 2.6 2.3
Summary
Minimum 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.9
Maximum 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.5
Median 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.3
Consensus 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4
History
30 days ago 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.5
60 days ago 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.5 21 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcst
90 days ago 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.6

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
20 Inflation, evolution of 2023 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2024 inflation forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 104

 Peru June 2024

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

22 | Interest Rate | 2012 - 2028 | in % 23 | Interest Rate | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate

Individual Forecasts 2024 2025

AGPV 5.00 4.00
Barclays Capital 5.00 4.00
BBVA Research 5.00 4.50
BCP/Credicorp Capital 5.00 4.25
BTG Pactual 5.25 4.25
Capital Economics 5.50 4.25
Citigroup Global Mkts 5.00 4.50
EIU 4.75 4.25
Fitch Solutions 4.25 3.50
Goldman Sachs 5.00 4.50
HSBC 4.75 4.00
IEDEP - CCL 4.50 3.25
IPE 4.75 4.00
Itaú Unibanco 5.75 4.25
JPMorgan 4.75 -
Macroconsult 5.00 4.25
24 | Int. Rate 2024 | evolution of fcst 25 | Int. Rate 2025 | evolution of fcst Pantheon Macroeconomics 4.00 4.00
Rabobank 5.25 4.75
Rimac Seguros 5.00 4.00
S&P Global Ratings 4.50 4.00
Scotiabank 4.50 4.00
Thorne & Associates 5.00 4.00
UBS 4.50 4.00
Public Forecasts
CAF 4.50 3.50
Summary
Minimum 4.00 3.25
Maximum 5.75 4.75
Median 5.00 4.00
Consensus 4.85 4.09
History
30 days ago 4.84 4.08
60 days ago 4.83 4.09
90 days ago 4.64 4.02
26 | Interest Rate 2024 | Panelist Distribution

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data
are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

22 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

23 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
24 Interest rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
26 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 105

 Peru June 2024

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

27 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD Exchange Rate | PEN per USD

Individual Forecasts 2024 2025

AGPV 3.80 3.80
Barclays Capital 3.80 3.91
BBVA Research 3.80 3.75
BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.75 3.75
BTG Pactual 3.75 3.88
CABI 3.80 3.85
Capital Economics 3.70 3.80
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.70 3.70
E2 Economia 3.70 3.70
Econosignal 3.88 3.75
EIU 3.76 3.75
Fitch Ratings 3.82 3.84
Fitch Solutions 3.60 3.60
HSBC 3.70 -
IEDEP - CCL 3.77 3.80
IPE 3.75 3.74
29 | PEN per USD 2024 | evol. of fcst 30 | PEN per USD 2025 | evol. of fcst Itaú Unibanco 3.75 3.77
JPMorgan 3.70 -
Macroconsult 3.65 3.55
Moody's Analytics 3.72 3.70
Oxford Economics 3.74 3.77
Pezco Economics 3.73 3.74
Rimac Seguros 3.75 3.80
S&P Global Ratings 3.75 3.85
Scotiabank 3.75 3.75
Standard Chartered 3.68 3.55
Thorne & Associates 3.90 3.70
Torino Capital 4.00 -
UBS 3.85 3.85
Public Forecasts
CAF 3.73 3.70
Summary
Minimum 3.60 3.55
Maximum 4.00 3.91
31 | PEN per USD 2024 | Panelist Distribution Median 3.75 3.75
Consensus 3.76 3.75
History
30 days ago 3.76 3.75
60 days ago 3.75 3.74
90 days ago 3.77 3.76

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from Macrobond Financial AB. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

27 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).

28 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2024 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 106

 Peru June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 32 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Int. Reserves

% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital -0.8 -1.8 66.5 63.7
BBVA Research 0.8 0.2 - -
BCP/Credicorp Capital -0.7 -1.3 74.0 72.5
BTG Pactual -0.8 -1.1 - -
Capital Economics 0.5 0.8 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.5 -1.1 73.6 74.9
DekaBank -0.4 -1.0 - -
EIU -0.4 -0.8 75.8 84.7
Euromonitor Int. 1.0 0.2 81.2 90.1
Fitch Ratings -0.8 -1.3 71.6 72.0
Fitch Solutions 0.3 0.8 75.1 79.1
Goldman Sachs -0.1 -1.3 73.0 73.4
HSBC 0.0 -0.5 - -
IEDEP - CCL -0.8 -0.9 75.2 77.5
Macroconsult -0.8 - - - 33 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Moody's Analytics -0.3 -1.1 78.5 87.0
Oxford Economics -0.5 -0.8 74.6 83.6
Pezco Economics 1.0 0.3 - -
Rabobank -0.3 -0.8 72.5 75.4
Rimac Seguros -0.5 -0.9 - -
Scotiabank -0.6 -0.8 73.0 73.5
Standard Chartered -1.2 -1.3 - -
Thorne & Associates 0.6 0.4 77.4 81.4
Torino Capital -0.4 - - -
UBS -1.5 -1.1 72.5 74.1
Public Forecasts
CAF 0.1 -1.0 - -
IMF -1.1 -1.4 73.8 76.3
OECD 0.4 0.6 - -
World Bank -1.3 -1.2 - -
Summary
Minimum -1.5 -1.8 66.5 63.7
Maximum 1.0 0.8 81.2 90.1 34 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
Median -0.4 -0.9 73.9 75.8
Consensus -0.3 -0.7 74.3 77.4
History
30 days ago -0.6 -0.8 74.5 77.6
60 days ago -0.7 -0.9 74.3 77.2
90 days ago -0.8 -1.1 74.2 76.9

35 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

32 Current account balance as % of GDP.

33 Current account balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
34 International reserves, months of imports.
35 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 107

 Peru June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 36 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BBVA Research 69.8 70.1 50.9 53.1
BCP/Credicorp Capital 68.1 68.8 53.0 54.8
BTG Pactual 66.7 70.3 51.2 53.6
CABI 70.6 77.7 53.3 55.4
Citigroup Global Mkts 66.3 69.0 55.6 58.3
EIU 71.3 78.3 53.9 61.3
Euromonitor Int. 70.1 74.5 54.7 61.3
Fitch Ratings 66.7 68.2 51.8 54.2
Fitch Solutions 70.9 75.1 51.3 53.4
Goldman Sachs 69.1 71.1 51.9 55.1
HSBC 69.4 70.8 52.1 54.1
IEDEP - CCL 69.4 71.1 55.7 56.7
Macroconsult 65.9 - 55.0 -
Oxford Economics 67.8 70.7 53.4 57.8 37 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Pezco Economics 70.3 73.3 53.3 57.1
Rabobank 68.7 72.9 55.7 59.2
Scotiabank 68.5 70.8 52.5 54.6
Thorne & Associates 73.4 76.5 54.1 57.1
Torino Capital 84.4 - 63.5 -
UBS 68.2 70.2 53.6 55.8
Public Forecasts
CAF 65.6 70.1 49.6 53.9
IMF 66.7 68.8 52.5 54.7
Summary
Minimum 65.6 68.2 49.6 53.1
Maximum 84.4 78.3 63.5 61.3
Median 68.9 70.8 53.3 55.2
Consensus 69.5 71.9 53.6 56.1
History
30 days ago 69.3 71.5 54.2 56.6
60 days ago 68.6 70.8 53.9 56.2
90 days ago 68.2 70.1 53.6 55.7 38 | Imports | variation in %

39 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

36 Exports, annual variation in %.

37 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
38 Imports, annual variation in %.
39 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 108

 Peru June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Peru in the Region

Official Name Republic of Peru Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital Lima (10.4m)
Other cities Arequipa (0.9m)
Trujillo (0.8m)
Area (km2) 1,285,216
Population (million, 2024 est.) 33
Population density (per km2, 2024) 25.4
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.48
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 68.9
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 94.5
Language Spanish, Quechua and Aymara
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-5

Economic infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2020)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 7 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 128
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 71
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 9

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 877
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 849
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 57.6
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 50.9
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 187
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 210
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 45.5

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 166
Railways (km): 1,854.4
Roadways (km): 70,000 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 8,808 Primary markets | share in %
Chief ports: Callao, Matarani, Paita

Political Data
Head of State: Dina Ercilia Boluarte Zegarra
Head of Government: Dina Ercilia Boluarte Zegarra
Last Elections: 6 June 2021
Exports Imports
Next Elections: 2026
Central Bank Governor Julio Velarde Flores

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody's Baa1 Negative Primary products | share in %
S&P Global Ratings BBB- Stable
Fitch Ratings BBB Negative

Strengths Weaknesses
• Mining, energy and fish • Large informal economy Imports
Exports
resources • Inadequate infrastructure
• Low public debt • High dependence on commodity
• Strong growth potential prices

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 109

 Venezuela June 2024

Venezuela
Economic conditions to remain tough
Economic overview: According to the opposition-led Finance Observatory,
economic activity grew 2.0% year-on-year in Q1. This growth was primarily
driven by a significant increase in oil production due to the rollback of U.S.
sanctions. Conversely, the non-oil sector experienced modest growth, as
reduced government spending partially counteracted the positive impact of
decreased inflation on private consumption. Turning to Q2, the energy sector
appears to be losing steam: Oil output in April rose at about half of Q1’s rate,
and in April the U.S. decided not to renew oil sanctions relief. More positively,
the easing of price pressures should be supporting households’ budgets. In
May, the government withdrew an invitation for EU observers in the 28 July
Oliver Reynolds presidential elections. This makes a free and fair election even less likely,
Economist suggesting U.S. oil sanctions will remain in place this year.

GDP outlook: GDP growth should nearly double in 2024 from 2023, thanks
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages to lower inflation supporting private consumption, and higher oil production—
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 at least early in the year—aiding exports. The July elections and the prices
GDP growth (%): -5.9 3.4 3.0 of oil—exports of which are over half the budget—are key factors to watch,
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): - - -
Public Debt (% of GDP): 246 - -
while conflict with Guyana over the disputed Essequibo region is a downside
Inflation (%): 1,376.8 178.1 62.4 risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.2% in 2024, which is
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.2 1.9 -
up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 3.8% in
2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Inflation: Inflation fell to 59.2% in May from 64.9% in April, coming in below
triple figures for only the fourth time in nearly a decade. Inflation is set to
average more than three times lower in 2024 than in 2023, but it should
remain the second-highest in Latin America due to currency weakening
later this year and continued monetary financing of the fiscal deficit.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 101.5% on average
in 2024, which is up by 2.6 percentage points from one month ago, and rising
95.6% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: The Central Bank’s monetary policy has been ineffective
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
at controlling inflation for years due to triple-digit money supply growth amid
significant monetary financing of the fiscal deficit. Money supply growth is
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
forecast to remain above 100% both this year and next, which will result in
extremely elevated price pressures by global standards.

Currency: The bolívar traded at VED 36.44 per USD on 7 June, appreciating
0.2% month on month. The parallel market rate traded at VED 40.00 per
USD on 7 June, depreciating 1.0% month on month. Our Consensus is for
the official and parallel rates to depreciate against the USD by end-2024,
due to fading prospects of a fair election and renewed U.S. oil sanctions.
FocusEconomics panelists see the bolívar ending 2024 at VED 70.92 per
USD and ending 2025 at VED 142.37 per USD.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 110

 Venezuela June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 27.8 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 - - -
GDP per Capita (USD) 5,398 3,810 4,053 3,558 3,756 4,096 4,254 - - -
GDP (USD bn) 150 106 112 96 100 108 113 - - -
GDP (VES bn) - - - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) - - - - - - - - - -
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -27.7 -30.0 0.5 11.8 2.3 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -35.9 -15.4 0.4 9.3 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -25.7 -26.4 4.9 9.4 5.9 6.6 4.6 2.7 2.5 3.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -28.7 -30.1 -3.0 11.6 3.7 4.8 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -11.6 -48.1 -25.3 19.6 6.6 11.6 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -22.2 -20.6 -14.4 24.6 5.3 9.7 4.1 2.7 2.4 2.9
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -40.1 -36.5 12.9 14.3 3.9 6.0 2.8 - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 27.0 42.7 38.4 34.3 34.3 33.7 31.7 30.9 29.5 24.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) - - - - - - - - - -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 205 328 251 158 168 - - - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4,946 1,287 635 354 268 186 145 - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9,586 2,960 686.4 234.1 189.8 134.8 108.9 54.5 43.1 32.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 19,906 2,355 1,589 186.7 337.2 101.5 95.6 64.4 59.4 63.4
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 24.12 24.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 46,829 709,900 4.59 17.23 35.85 70.92 142.37 191.49 292.39 375.53
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 54,703 998,942 4.69 18.60 39.49 71.02 134.11 - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 13,356 234,032 3.28 6.70 28.57 51.48 106.64 166.93 241.94 333.96
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, aop) 14,354 337,031 3.47 7.28 30.05 54.63 102.57 - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 6.3 -1.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.2 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.2 -1.6 1.0 1.3 1.0 2.5 2.2 1.4 - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 12.8 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.7 4.0 2.1 3.3 3.1 3.9
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22.0 9.2 11.2 15.9 15.6 18.5 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.5
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.3 7.5 8.9 13.5 12.9 14.5 15.6 14.9 15.3 14.6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -34.5 -58.4 21.9 46.9 -1.9 18.3 -4.1 2.9 1.1 0.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -27.5 -18.7 18.2 42.6 -4.3 12.5 7.6 -4.7 2.8 -5.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -1.3 -0.5 -1.0 0.9 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.6 6.4 10.9 9.9 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.6 10.1 14.7 8.8 9.1 8.2 7.9 8.6 8.7 9.6
External Debt (USD bn) 186 189 193 110 110 111 - - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 123.6 177.8 172.5 114.9 110.6 102.6 - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 4.5 4.4 6.5 4.9 5.6 3.3 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 364.8 253.2 82.0 105.1 97.6 100.4 106.3 118.7 113.1 110.4
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 36.00 36.00 36.00 - - - - - - -
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 34.26 35.85 36.20 49.89 61.38 80.84 - - - -
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 35.47 39.49 38.79 53.14 64.83 85.51 - - - -
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 340 332 320 251 268 214 204 217 196 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 7.42 8.67 5.86 3.46 2.43 1.71 1.20 1.17 2.04 1.46
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 394.8 317.6 316.5 282.8 189.8 107.4 75.9 67.8 64.9 59.2
Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 32.14 34.26 35.08 35.45 35.85 36.10 36.03 36.20 36.38 36.49
Non-official Exchange Rate (VED per USD, eop) 34.17 35.47 36.59 37.06 39.49 38.39 38.33 38.79 39.40 40.36
Oil Production (mn barrels per day) 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.82 0.82 0.81 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.1

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 111

 Venezuela June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in %

Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 4.4 3.8 - -
Allianz 0.1 2.9 - -
Capital Economics 5.0 5.0 - -
DekaBank 3.8 2.8 - -
Dinámica Venezuela 5.1 3.4 - -
Ecoanalítica 4.3 3.9 - -
Econosignal 4.5 3.7 - -
EIU 3.6 2.8 - -
EMFI 7.1 5.2 - -
Euromonitor Int. 2.9 3.0 - -
Fitch Solutions 4.8 3.3 -4.5 -5.0
FrontierView 3.3 2.6 - -
Julius Baer 0.0 2.8 - -
Moody's Analytics 5.0 5.1 - -
Oxford Economics 4.0 3.5 - - 2 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
Síntesis Financiera 5.9 - - -
Torino Capital 5.7 - - -
UBS 7.0 7.0 -5.0 -3.5
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 4.0 - - -
IMF 4.0 3.0 - -
United Nations* 2.7 2.8 - -
Summary
Minimum 0.0 2.6 - -
Maximum 7.1 7.0 - -
Median 4.3 3.4 - -
Consensus 4.2 3.8 - -
History
30 days ago 4.1 3.7 -5.1 -3.9
60 days ago 4.3 3.8 -5.6 -4.8
90 days ago 4.2 3.7 -5.6 -4.8

3 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD) and the IMF. See below for details. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: UNCTAD.

2 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 112

 Venezuela June 2024

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 5 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV - - - -
Allianz - - - -
Capital Economics 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 3.3 2.1 5.3 3.4
Ecoanalítica 5.2 4.6 5.5 6.5
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 2.5 2.3 8.0 5.0
EMFI - - - -
Euromonitor Int. 2.4 2.5 - -
Fitch Solutions 3.5 3.2 5.0 2.0
FrontierView 5.1 4.3 - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 3.2 5.7 3.3 1.1
Oxford Economics 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Síntesis Financiera 4.8 - - -
Torino Capital 2.4 - 2.5 -
UBS - - - -
Summary
Minimum 2.4 2.1 2.5 1.1
Maximum 5.2 5.7 8.0 6.5
Median 3.3 3.5 5.0 3.5
Consensus 3.6 3.7 4.8 3.8
History
30 days ago 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.0
60 days ago 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.4
90 days ago 3.8 3.5 3.9 3.4

7 | Investment | variation in %

8 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the United Nations (UNCTAD). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.

6 Private consumption, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
7 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
8 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 113

 Venezuela June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 9 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 61.9 85.9 - -
Allianz - - 64.9 36.4
Capital Economics - - 55.0 50.0
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 159.6 119.3 105.8 138.2
Ecoanalítica 63.3 61.3 62.3 71.6
Econosignal 80.0 55.0 - -
EIU 57.0 55.1 62.1 61.8
EMFI 246.6 283.4 204.9 267.7
Euromonitor Int. - - 89.5 90.0
Fitch Solutions 86.8 90.0 - -
FrontierView - - 110.0 90.0
Julius Baer - - 69.8 36.4
Moody's Analytics - - 70.3 59.7
Oxford Economics - - - - 10 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Síntesis Financiera 68.0 - 66.0 -
Torino Capital 269.9 - 258.6 -
UBS 230.0 80.0 - -
Public Forecasts
IMF 160.0 150.0 100.0 150.0
United Nations* - - 115.0 85.0
Summary
Minimum 57.0 55.0 55.0 36.4
Maximum 269.9 283.4 258.6 267.7
Median 86.8 85.9 70.3 71.6
Consensus 134.8 108.9 101.5 95.6
History
30 days ago 137.0 103.7 98.9 90.2
60 days ago 137.6 98.0 108.1 89.5
90 days ago 138.3 98.0 114.8 93.8

11 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

12 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (aop).
11 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
12 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 114

 Venezuela June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 13 | Current Account | USD bn

Current Account Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV - - 10.1 10.5
Allianz - - - -
Capital Economics - - - -
DekaBank 3.1 2.8 - -
Dinámica Venezuela - - 10.0 10.0
Ecoanalítica 2.0 2.0 - -
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 4.6 3.7 8.9 9.6
EMFI 2.0 - - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 10.4 11.0
Fitch Solutions - - 10.3 10.5
FrontierView - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 3.2 6.6 - -
Oxford Economics -1.8 -0.5 10.1 10.6 14 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
Síntesis Financiera 8.0 - - -
Torino Capital 0.6 - 9.5 -
UBS 3.4 3.4 10.5 10.0
Public Forecasts
IMF 4.8 4.2 - -
Summary
Minimum -1.8 -0.5 8.9 9.6
Maximum 8.0 6.6 10.5 11.0
Median 3.1 3.4 10.1 10.5
Consensus 3.0 3.2 10.0 10.3
History
30 days ago 3.3 3.8 9.9 10.0
60 days ago 3.4 4.0 10.0 10.3
90 days ago 3.3 3.8 10.1 10.4

15 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

16 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

13 Current account balance in USD billion.

14 Current account balance in USD billion, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
15 International reserves, months of imports.
16 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 115

 Venezuela June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 17 | Trade Balance | USD bn

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
AGPV 20.1 23.4 19.0 22.8
Allianz - - - -
Capital Economics - - - -
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 14.0 14.6 12.8 13.0
Ecoanalítica 15.6 17.5 15.9 17.6
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 18.9 18.7 15.6 15.9
EMFI 22.3 - 13.3 -
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
Fitch Solutions 19.7 20.8 15.2 17.3
FrontierView - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - - -
Oxford Economics 10.6 12.2 7.8 7.9 18 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Síntesis Financiera 22.0 - 11.7 -
Torino Capital 24.2 - 19.1 -
UBS 17.6 17.0 15.0 15.0
Summary
Minimum 10.6 12.2 7.8 7.9
Maximum 24.2 23.4 19.1 22.8
Median 19.3 17.5 15.1 15.9
Consensus 18.5 17.8 14.5 15.6
History
30 days ago 18.5 17.8 14.3 15.2
60 days ago 18.8 19.0 14.3 15.5
90 days ago 18.7 19.0 14.1 15.5

19 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

20 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

General:

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

17 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.

18 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
19 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
20 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 116

 Venezuela June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Venezuela in the Region*

Bolivarian Republic of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Official Name
Venezuela
Capital Caracas (2.9m)
Other cities Maracaibo (2.1m)
Valencia (1.7m)
Area (km2) 912,050
Population (million, 2024 est.) 31
Population density (per km2, 2024) 34.3
Population growth (%, 2024) 2.34
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 74.5
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 97.5
Language Spanish
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-4.30

Economic infrastructure Economic Structure

Telecommunication (2020) GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 11
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 60
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 78.7
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 9

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2,500
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,621
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 84.6
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 56.8
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1,028
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 367
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 80.8

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 502
Railways (km): 447 Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 96,189 Primary markets | share in %
Waterways (km): 7,100
La Guaira, Maracaibo, Puerto Cabello,
Chief ports:
Punta Cardon

Political Data
Head of State: Nicolás Maduro Exports Imports
Head of Government: Nicolás Maduro
Last Elections: 6 December 2020
Next Elections: 28 July 2024
Central Bank Governor Calixto Ortega Sanchez

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Primary products | share in %
Agency Rating Outlook
Moody's N/A N/A
S&P Global Ratings N/A N/A
Fitch Ratings RD N/A

Strengths Weaknesses Exports Imports

• Abundant wealth in natural • Government's heavy intervention

resources in the economy
• Strategic geographic location • U.S. sanctions
between South America and the • Dependence on oil
Caribbean • Runaway inflation

*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 117

untries

Bolivia June 2024

Bolivia
2024 GDP growth to weaken from 2023
Economic overview: The economy will have been under pressure so
far this year, following the annual GDP growth acceleration in the fourth
quarter of 2023. Private consumption will have been hurt by higher inflation
in January–May. Moreover, exports of goods fell at more than double Q4’s
pace in January–February, boding ill for inflows of foreign reserves. In April,
international reserves ticked up, but still they covered less than two months
of imports. Meanwhile, pressure on the currency peg has remained high.
Protests due to the severe U.S. dollar scarcity continue, likely hampering
overall economic activity. In politics, the stalemate between incumbent
President Arce and former President Morales to be the Movimiento al
Marta Casanovas Socialismo party’s candidate at next year’s general elections continued.
Economist
GDP outlook: Slower private spending growth this year will cause GDP to
expand more weakly than in 2023. Moreover, risks to the outlook are skewed
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages to the downside, including the looming currency and balance-of-payments
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 crises potentially leading to an escalation of social unrest. Extreme weather
GDP growth (%): 0.3 2.3 2.5 events, gas and gold exports, and election-related uncertainty are factors to
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -9.7 -7.9 -6.9
Public Debt (% of GDP): 79.9 84.9 90.8
watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2024, which
Inflation (%): 1.1 3.6 3.8 is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 2.1% in 2025.
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.0 -2.5 -2.8

Inflation: Inflation was stable at April’s 3.5% in May, the joint-highest since
September 2017; stronger rises in prices for transport were offset by slower
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts increases in prices for food. Overall in 2024, inflation should average around
current levels and above 2023’s level. Upside pressures will stem from a
weak black-market boliviano and high imported inflation from Argentina.
FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 3.5% on average in
2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and
rising 4.6% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: The Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB)’s top priority is to

protect the boliviano’s USD peg, so it effectively lacks an independent
monetary policy. To achieve its monetary policy goals, the BCB alters reserve
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
Source: Instituto Nacional de forecasts during the last 12 months.
requirements and its target growth rate for domestic credit. Moreover, the
Estadística (INE). Bank adjusts interest rates to mirror the U.S. Fed.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
Currency: The boliviano has been pegged at around BOB 6.9 per USD
since 2011. The U.S. dollar index traded at 105 on 7 June, depreciating
0.5% month on month. Recently, a parallel market for the currency has
emerged, trading at around 20% weaker than the official peg. Most panelists
see the current peg in place until after the general elections next year.
FocusEconomics panelists see the boliviano ending 2024 at BOB 7.08 per
USD and ending 2025 at BOB 7.37 per USD.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: INE.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 118

 Bolivia June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0
GDP per Capita (USD) 3,560 3,153 3,428 3,686 3,715 3,891 3,999 4,033 4,158 4,331
GDP (USD bn) 40.8 36.7 40.4 44.1 45.1 47.8 49.8 51.0 53.3 56.4
GDP (BOB bn) 283 253 279 304 312 333 360 399 444 474
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.5 -10.4 10.3 8.9 2.6 6.8 8.0 10.9 11.3 6.8
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 2.2 -8.7 6.1 3.6 3.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 -7.9 5.3 3.4 3.2 2.4 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.8 -2.8 5.4 3.7 2.4 2.6 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -3.5 -25.9 11.9 5.6 5.7 2.4 1.5 - - -
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.8 -18.8 15.4 15.1 -8.8 2.3 1.1 2.7 3.7 3.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.5 -25.0 15.7 8.8 -2.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 2.4 2.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.0 8.3 6.9 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -7.2 -12.7 -9.3 -7.1 -8.0 -7.9 -7.7 -7.2 -6.8 -6.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 58.6 78.0 81.4 80.4 83.6 85.7 85.5 90.3 91.6 90.6
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) -7.5 14.1 6.6 4.0 10.6 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.5 0.7 0.9 3.1 2.1 4.5 5.2 4.1 3.7 3.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.6 4.0 3.8 3.6
Prime Lending Rate (%, eop) 8.40 7.59 8.02 7.76 - - - - - -
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.91 6.89 6.91 6.93 6.91 7.08 7.37 8.28 8.37 8.45
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 6.92 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.92 6.96 7.23 7.83 8.32 8.41
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.4 0.0 1.6 0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.3 0.0 3.9 2.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -3.3 -2.6 -2.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.0 0.1 2.0 1.7 -0.7 0.5 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 8.8 7.0 11.1 13.5 10.8 11.6 11.8 12.1 13.0 13.6
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.8 7.0 9.1 11.9 11.5 11.0 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -1.3 -20.6 58.9 21.5 -20.3 7.2 2.2 2.5 7.1 5.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -1.8 -29.2 31.1 30.1 -3.2 -3.9 -0.7 5.7 3.5 4.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -0.2 -1.1 0.6 0.0 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.5 5.3 4.8 3.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 - - -
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.9 9.1 6.3 3.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 14.3 15.4 16.0 15.9 16.9 18.2 20.1 22.9 26.4 30.4
External Debt (% of GDP) 35.0 42.1 39.6 36.1 37.5 38.0 40.4 45.0 49.4 54.0
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.39 -0.06 -0.01 0.00 0.63 0.08 0.20 0.46 0.57 0.63
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.5
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.91 6.92 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.90 6.91 6.93 6.91 6.92

1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD 3 | Current Account | % of GDP

Notes and sources

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

General:
Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco
Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 119

 Bolivia June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Bolivia in the Region

Official Name Plurinational State of Bolivia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital La Paz (1.8 m), Sucre (0.2 m)
Other cities Cochabamba (1.2 m)
Area (km2) 1,098,581
Population (million, 2024 est.) 12
Population density (per km2, 2024) 11.2
Population growth (%, 2024) 1
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 72.5
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 92.5
Language Spanish, Quechua and Aymara
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-4

Economic infrastructure
Telecommunication (2020)
Economic Structure
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 4
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 100 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 66
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 8

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 631
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 296
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 11.5
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 10.6
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 59.1
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 87.0
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 17.8

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 200
Railways (km): 3,960
Roadways (km): 90,568
Waterways (km): 10,000 Trade Structure
Chief ports: Puerto Aguirre Primary markets | share in %

Political Data
Head of State: Luis Alberto Arce Catacora
Head of Government: Luis Alberto Arce Catacora
Last Elections: 18 October 2020
Next Elections: October 2025
Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor Roger Edwin Rojas Ulo

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody's Caa3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings CCC+ Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings CCC -

Strengths Weaknesses
• Rich in natural resources • Landlocked country
• Tourism potential • Highly dependent on the
Exports Imports
• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector
• Elevated levels of poverty
• Interventionist economic policy

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 120

 Ecuador June 2024

Ecuador
Economic conditions to remain downbeat
Economic overview: The economy has likely contracted in annual terms so
far this year. Elevated violence and insecurity, the state of emergency in force
until early April, tightening financial conditions, electricity shortages causing
a nationwide shutdown in April, and a three-percentage-point VAT hike from
April have all weighed on economic activity. Looking at available data, in
January–April, credit growth eased from Q4’s average, while tourist arrivals
fell around a fifth year on year. On a more positive note, oil output growth
reached a five-quarter high in Q1. In May, the IMF approved a four-year,
USD 4 billion financial program, with an immediate disbursement of USD 1
billion. This should help the economy to stabilize ahead, though raising the
Oliver Reynolds country’s sluggish GDP growth trend will require deep structural reforms.
Economist
GDP outlook: GDP is set to rise only slightly this year; our panelists have
downgraded their 2024 growth forecasts by 0.6 percentage points since
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages January. A deteriorating security situation and further electricity shortages
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 are downside risks, while the postponement or reversal of the Block 43 oil
GDP growth (%): 2.3 1.6 2.2 field closure slated for later this year is an upside risk. FocusEconomics
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.0 -2.7 -1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP): 57.8 52.7 -
panelists see GDP expanding 0.7% in 2024, which is unchanged from one
Inflation (%): 1.1 1.9 1.9 month ago, and expanding 1.6% in 2025.
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.3 1.3 0.6

Inflation: Inflation fell to 2.5% in May from 2.7% in April, which had marked
an over one-year high. Average inflation in Ecuador is forecast to be among
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts the lowest in Latin America this year, due to weak domestic demand and
the strength of the U.S. dollar, which Ecuador uses as legal tender. That
said, April’s VAT hike will provide some upward pressure. FocusEconomics
panelists see consumer prices rising 1.7% on average in 2024, which is
unchanged from one month ago, and rising 1.9% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: The country officially dollarized its economy in January

2000. Therefore, it lacks an independent monetary policy, and monetary
conditions depend on the U.S. Fed’s stance. As a result, local interest rates
have risen by several hundred basis points since end-2021 in line with
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Fed hikes. Monetary conditions should ease towards end-2024 as the Fed
embarks on rate cuts.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
Currency: The USD is legal tender and has circulated freely in Ecuador
since the economy was dollarized in 2000. The U.S. dollar index traded at
105 on 7 June, depreciating 0.5% month on month. The economy will likely
remain dollarized in the coming years, given that dollarization ensures low
inflation and that the costs of changing to a different FX regime would be
elevated.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months.
2025.

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 Ecuador June 2024

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation slides in May

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Latest reading: Inflation ticked down to 2.5% in May, following April’s 2.7%.
Looking at the details of the release, prices for transportation increased at a
faster pace in May, while prices for food and hospitality rose at a slower pace.
Meanwhile, clothing and footwear prices contracted at a softer pace.

Annual average inflation was unchanged at April’s 1.9% in May.

Finally, consumer prices fell 0.12% in May over the previous month, swinging
from April’s 1.27% rise. May’s result marked the weakest reading since
November 2023.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising

1.7% on average in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and rising
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC). 1.9% on average in 2025.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 122

 Ecuador June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6
GDP per Capita (USD) 6,231 5,475 6,050 6,475 6,509 6,625 6,722 6,812 6,973 7,143
GDP (USD bn) 107.6 95.9 107.4 116.6 118.8 122.7 126.2 129.7 134.6 139.9
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 0.1 -10.9 12.1 8.5 1.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.9
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 0.2 -9.2 9.8 6.2 2.4 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -10.6 11.3 7.4 1.4 0.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.8 -4.0 0.0 1.8 3.7 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -2.3 -21.8 13.2 8.5 0.5 -0.6 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.9 -3.9 9.4 7.3 2.3 -0.1 1.5 3.0 3.0 2.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.0 -18.3 21.5 10.5 -0.9 0.4 1.1 2.8 3.4 3.4
Industry (ann. var. %) 0.2 -10.0 0.5 1.1 - - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.4 6.1 5.2 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -7.4 -1.6 0.0 -3.5 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 53.0 63.6 56.4 53.5 51.4 52.1 54.5 56.1 56.8 -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -0.1 -0.9 1.9 3.7 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.3 -0.3 0.1 3.5 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 6.17 5.89 5.91 6.35 7.70 - - - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.2 2.2 3.1 2.1 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 2.3 2.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 0.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22.8 20.6 27.0 33.0 31.5 31.8 31.6 32.4 33.4 33.1
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 21.7 17.1 24.0 30.5 29.3 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.7 32.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.8 -9.7 31.1 22.5 -4.7 1.1 -0.6 2.3 3.2 -0.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.7 -21.4 40.3 27.2 -4.0 0.3 2.2 1.8 3.7 2.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.8 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 3.4 7.2 7.9 8.5 4.5 5.4 5.8 7.1 7.6 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 1.9 5.1 4.0 3.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.9 -
External Debt (USD bn) 46.1 52.5 56.3 57.5 60.2 62.9 - - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 42.8 54.7 52.4 49.4 50.6 51.3 - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 0.6 3.7 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.4
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -1.3 -2.4 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.3 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 7.40 7.70 7.93 - - - - - - -
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %) 3.8 -1.7 4.6 - - - - - - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 35.0 35.7 35.5 36.1 37.6 36.5 38.0 37.1 37.3 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.50 0.04 -0.18 -0.40 -0.02 0.13 0.09 0.29 1.27 -0.12
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.7 2.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 - -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -0.8 16.8 -0.6 -2.3 -0.4 11.7 5.8 7.4 - -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -0.6 -11.0 2.7 -5.5 -8.4 -7.8 -13.6 -9.2 - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.3 6.0 6.7

Notes: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey. On 19 December, the Central Bank of Ecuador changed the reference year for National
Accounts data from 2007 to 2018. Data from 2019 onwards reflects the new methodology, while data prior to 2019 reflects the previous base year.

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 Ecuador June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2012-2028 | var. in %

Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 1.1 2.0 -2.6 -1.4
CABI 1.0 1.5 -2.4 -2.4
Capital Economics -0.3 2.0 - -
Econosignal 1.2 1.8 - -
EIU 0.3 1.2 -2.4 -2.2
EmergingMarketWatch 1.0 1.9 - -
EMFI 1.0 0.8 -3.1 -2.8
Euromonitor Int. 0.5 1.3 -2.3 -2.1
Fitch Ratings 1.0 0.7 -1.2 -2.9
Fitch Solutions -0.7 1.5 - -
FrontierView 0.8 2.5 - -
Goldman Sachs 0.2 2.3 - -
Humboldt Management -1.9 1.3 - -
JPMorgan 0.6 2.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 1.4 2.0 -3.8 -2.4 2 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
Oxford Economics 1.2 1.4 -1.0 -2.2
Torino Capital 2.2 - -1.6 -
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 2.0 - - -
IMF 0.1 0.8 -0.8 -0.6
United Nations* 2.4 2.2 - -
World Bank 0.7 1.7 -2.0 -1.7
Summary
Minimum -1.9 0.7 -3.8 -2.9
Maximum 2.2 2.5 -1.0 -1.4
Median 0.9 1.6 -2.3 -2.2
Consensus 0.7 1.6 -2.2 -2.2
History
30 days ago 0.7 1.6 -2.2 -2.2
60 days ago 1.0 1.7 -2.2 -2.3
90 days ago 1.2 1.8 -2.2 -1.8

3 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and the IMF. See below
for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.

2 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

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 Ecuador June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 5 | Inflation | 2012-2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 2.0 2.0 - -
CABI 3.0 3.0 - -
Capital Economics 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8
Econosignal 1.9 1.9 - -
EIU 2.1 1.0 1.9 1.3
EmergingMarketWatch 3.0 3.2 - -
EMFI 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.7
Euromonitor Int. - - 1.5 1.7
Fitch Ratings - - 1.2 0.9
Fitch Solutions 0.9 2.5 1.2 1.7
FrontierView - - 2.0 2.3
Goldman Sachs 3.0 2.0 2.1 2.6
Humboldt Management 2.5 1.4 - -
JPMorgan - - 2.4 1.9
Moody's Analytics 2.8 3.1 2.3 3.1 6 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Oxford Economics 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.9
Torino Capital 2.3 - 1.7 -
Public Forecasts
IMF 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5
United Nations* - - 2.3 1.9
World Bank - - 1.9 1.8
Summary
Minimum 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9
Maximum 3.0 3.2 2.4 3.1
Median 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.8
Consensus 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.9
History
30 days ago 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.9
60 days ago 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9
90 days ago 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4

7 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

8 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the National
Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

5 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

6 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
7 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Ecuador June 2024

External Sector | Current Account and International Reserves

Current Account and International Reserves 9 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Int. Reserves
% of GDP USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital 2.0 2.3 7.2 8.7
CABI - - - -
Capital Economics - - - -
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 0.7 0.3 5.8 6.0
EmergingMarketWatch - - - -
EMFI 2.6 1.1 - -
Euromonitor Int. 1.6 1.1 5.8 6.2
Fitch Ratings 1.7 0.9 3.7 2.6
Fitch Solutions -0.2 0.7 5.0 5.5
FrontierView - - - -
Goldman Sachs 0.7 1.3 5.5 7.0
Humboldt Management 0.9 0.4 4.6 4.7
JPMorgan 1.3 0.6 - -
Moody's Analytics -0.4 -0.7 - - 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts
Oxford Economics 0.9 0.1 - -
Torino Capital 4.5 - - -
Public Forecasts
IMF 0.9 1.2 - -
World Bank 0.1 -0.1 - -
Summary
Minimum -0.4 -0.7 3.7 2.6
Maximum 4.5 2.3 7.2 8.7
Median 0.9 0.7 5.5 6.0
Consensus 1.2 0.7 5.4 5.8
History
30 days ago 0.8 0.5 5.4 5.8
60 days ago 0.4 -0.2 5.2 5.5
90 days ago 0.6 0.1 5.1 4.8

11 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

12 | Int. Reserves | evol of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Current account balance as % of GDP.

10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
11 International reserves, months of imports.
12 International reserves, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 126

 Ecuador June 2024

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 13 | Trade Balance | USD bn

Exports Imports
USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
Barclays Capital - - - -
CABI 32.7 34.3 31.2 31.8
Capital Economics - - - -
Econosignal - - - -
EIU 29.6 28.6 28.0 27.6
EmergingMarketWatch - - - -
EMFI 31.3 30.8 28.3 29.5
Euromonitor Int. 30.6 30.6 - -
Fitch Ratings 31.8 31.1 29.0 28.8
Fitch Solutions 29.0 30.4 28.2 28.4
FrontierView - - - -
Goldman Sachs 33.3 35.3 30.5 31.5
Humboldt Management 31.6 32.1 30.1 31.4
JPMorgan - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - - - 14 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
Oxford Economics 31.9 31.4 30.3 30.8
Torino Capital 36.5 - 28.8 -
Summary
Minimum 29.0 28.6 28.0 27.6
Maximum 36.5 35.3 31.2 31.8
Median 31.7 31.1 29.0 30.2
Consensus 31.8 31.6 29.4 30.0
History
30 days ago 31.9 31.7 30.1 30.1
60 days ago 31.3 30.7 30.2 30.3
90 days ago 31.8 31.6 30.3 30.6

15 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

16 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not in the Consensus and are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

13 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.

14 Trade balance, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
15 Exports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
16 Imports, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 127

 Ecuador June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Ecuador in the Region

Official Name Republic of Ecuador Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital Quito (1.8m)
Other cities Guayaquil (2.9m)
Cuenca (0.3m)
Area (km2) 283,561
Population (million, 2024 est.) 18
Population density (per km2, 2024) 64.6
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.94
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 74.9
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 93.9
Language Spanish, Quechua
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-5

Economic infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2020)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 10 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 94
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 76
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 13

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,165
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 542
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 32.6
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 27.7
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 146
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 225
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 31.3

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 310
Railways (km): 965
Roadways (km): 43,950 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 1,500 Primary markets | share in %
Chief ports: Esmeraldas, Manta, Puerto Bolivar

Political Data
Head of State: Daniel Noboa Azin
Head of Government: Daniel Noboa Azin
Last Elections: 20 August 2023 Exports Imports
Next Elections: 2025
Central Bank Governor Guillermo Avellán Solines

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody's Caa3 Stable Primary products | share in %
S&P Global Ratings B- Negative
Fitch Ratings CCC+ -

Strengths Weaknesses
• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dollarization limits scope to
Exports Imports
• Tourism potential adjust to external shocks
• Diverse climate enables a wide • Polarized political system
range of crops • High dependence on oil exports

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 128

 Paraguay June 2024

Paraguay
2024 growth to beat Latin American average
Economic overview: Economic activity increased 3.8% year on year in Q1,
compared to 4.7% in the three months to December. Q1’s expansion was
underpinned by strong output in the agriculture, manufacturing and services
sectors. Meanwhile, the joint-lowest inflation in three years, coupled with
ongoing monetary policy easing, likely buttressed private spending. That
said, the annual increase in merchandise exports slowed in Q1 compared
to Q4 2023 amid lower prices for key agricultural commodities. Shifting to
Q2, price pressures surged to a one-year high in May, which could prompt
the Central Bank to extend the pause in its loosening cycle, weighing on
domestic demand. In other news, after months of negotiation, Paraguay
Afonso Alves Monteiro and Brazil recently agreed on a price increase for the hydroelectricity that
Economist Paraguay sells to Brazil from the Itaipú dam; the deal bodes well for export
revenues and political stability.

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages GDP outlook: Economic growth should wane in 2024 from 2023 on weaker
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28 momentum in services and agricultural exports. That said, the economy will
GDP growth (%): 1.1 4.1 3.6 remain among Latin America’s best performers, buoyed by rebounding fixed
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.2 -2.9 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP): 38.3 - -
investment, faster private spending growth, and stronger revenue from the
Inflation (%): 5.5 4.0 3.9 Itaipú dam. The progress of the Mercosur-EU trade agreement is a key factor
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.1 0.1 -0.3
to monitor. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.8% in 2024,
which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 3.7% in 2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts Inflation: Inflation rose to a one-year high of 4.4% in May (April: 4.0%),
above the Central Bank’s 4.0% target. Lower fiscal spending and positive
real interest rates will see inflation average below the Central Bank’s 4.0%
target in 2024 as a whole. Risks are skewed to the upside and include
extreme weather and supply disruptions due to low water levels in the
Panama Canal. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 3.6%
on average in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 3.8% on average in 2025.

Monetary policy: On 21 May, the Central Bank of Paraguay held its

GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025
Source: Banco Central del Paraguay forecasts during the last 12 months.
benchmark rate at 6.00%, extending the pause in its rate normalization
(BCP). process due to uncertainty over the U.S. Fed’s pivot. Our Consensus is for
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
50 basis points of cuts by year-end; our panelists expect the pace of easing
to be limited by the need to prevent capital flight. The Bank will convene next
on 20 June. FocusEconomics panelists see the policy interest rate ending
2024 at 5.50% and ending 2025 at 5.06%.

Currency: The guarani traded at PYG 7,530 per USD on 7 June, depreciating
0.9% month on month. Our Consensus is for the PYG to appreciate from
current levels against the USD by year-end. The U.S. Fed’s pivot is a factor
to watch, while lower-than-expected agricultural prices are a depreciatory
risk as they would weaken export earnings. FocusEconomics panelists see
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025 the guarani ending 2024 at PYG 7,408 per USD and ending 2025 at PYG
average variation in %. forecasts during the last 12 months.
Source: BCP.
7,519 per USD.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 129

 Paraguay June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1
GDP per Capita (USD) 5,297 4,872 5,414 5,610 5,674 6,043 6,305 6,540 6,810 7,120
GDP (USD bn) 37.9 35.3 39.8 41.8 42.9 46.3 48.9 51.4 54.2 57.5
GDP (PYG bn) 236,681 239,915 270,634 292,947 313,103 339,316 365,061 390,591 419,594 451,859
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 2.6 1.4 12.8 8.2 6.9 8.4 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.7
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -0.4 -0.8 4.0 0.2 4.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.8 -3.6 6.1 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.1 3.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.7 5.1 2.6 -2.2 3.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.1 5.3 18.2 -1.8 -3.5 4.5 5.5 4.6 4.2 3.9
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.4 -9.0 2.1 -1.1 36.7 2.7 3.4 3.5 2.9 3.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.0 -15.2 21.8 9.4 14.1 1.1 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 7.7 7.5 6.7 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -6.1 -3.6 -2.9 -4.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 25.8 36.9 37.5 40.5 40.3 42.0 - - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.4 18.7 8.2 3.2 9.5 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.8 2.2 6.8 8.1 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.8 1.8 4.8 9.8 4.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.00 0.75 5.25 8.50 6.75 5.50 5.06 5.08 5.08 5.08
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 6,464 6,897 6,906 7,366 7,285 7,408 7,519 7,673 7,797 7,926
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 6,246 6,789 6,798 7,006 7,304 7,334 7,464 7,596 7,735 7,862
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.2 0.7 -0.3 -3.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 1.9 -0.9 -7.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.2 1.2 0.6 -1.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 12.1 11.0 13.2 12.8 16.3 16.3 17.3 17.4 18.1 18.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 11.9 9.7 12.6 14.7 15.4 15.7 16.6 16.8 17.6 18.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -8.1 -9.6 20.7 -3.1 26.8 0.2 6.0 1.1 3.7 4.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -5.5 -18.3 29.4 17.1 4.7 1.9 5.8 1.2 4.6 3.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 7.7 9.5 9.9 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.0 - - -
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.7 11.7 9.5 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.9 - - -
External Debt (USD bn) 17.6 20.7 22.2 24.5 26.6 27.7 28.9 30.1 31.2 32.5
External Debt (% of GDP) 46.6 58.7 55.7 58.6 62.0 59.8 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.5
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.16 0.47 0.47 0.39 0.31 0.92 0.00 1.07 0.76 0.37
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.4
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 7,298 7,314 7,471 7,431 7,285 7,268 7,302 7,394 7,476 7,535

1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Public Debt | % of GDP 3 | Current Account | % of GDP

Notes and sources

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the Central Bank of Paraguay
(BCP, Banco Central del Paraguay), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ministry of the Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda). See below for details. Forecasts based
on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH and BCP.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: IMF.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 130

 Paraguay June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Paraguay in the Region

Official Name Republic of Paraguay Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital Asunción (3.2m)
Other cities Ciudad del Este (0.2m)
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2) 406,752
Population (million, 2024 est.) 8
Population density (per km2, 2024) 18.5
Population growth (%, 2024) 1.09
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 78.8
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 94.5
Language Spanish, Guaraní
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-4

Economic infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2020)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 3 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 119
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 77
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 8

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 161
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 193
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 44.0
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 17.5
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.0
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 57.3
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 8.2

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 83
Railways (km): 30
Roadways (km): 78,811 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 3,100 Primary markets | share in %
Chief ports: Asuncion, Villeta, San Antonio, Encarnacion

Political Data
Head of State: Santiago Peña Palacios
Head of Government: Santiago Peña Palacios
Last Elections: 30 April 2023
Exports Imports
Next Elections: 2028
Central Bank Governor Carlos Carvallo Spalding

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody's Ba1 Positive Primary products | share in %
S&P Global Ratings BB+ Stable
Fitch Ratings BB+ Stable

Strengths Weaknesses
• Favorable conditions for • Vulnerability to commodity price
Exports Imports
agriculture swings
• Stable source of income from • Dependence on neighboring
hydroelectric dams economies
• Market-friendly economic
policies

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 131

 Uruguay June 2024

Uruguay
Growth to shift into a higher gear in 2024
Economic overview: Our panel expects the economy to have lost steam
at the outset of 2024 and available data bears out this prediction: Economic
activity rose 0.4% year on year in Q1 compared to the 2.0% increase in
Q4 2023. In addition, merchandise exports swung into contraction in the
quarter—hinting at muted external demand—as did manufacturing output.
Moreover, sticky inflation in the quarter could have weighed on private
spending. Shifting to the current quarter, price pressures receded in April–
May from Q1, which, coupled with monetary easing, is likely benefiting
household budgets. Moreover, goods exports surged nearly 30% in April, a
near two-year high. In other news, the government issued two global bonds
Afonso Alves Monteiro on 8 May totaling USD 1.8 billion. The bonds were met with high demand,
Economist signaling strong sentiment among investors regarding Uruguay’s economy.

GDP outlook: GDP growth is set to easily outpace both 2023 levels and
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
the prior decade’s average of 1.1% this year. A strong harvest and the
2020-22 2023-25 2026-28
establishment of a new pulp plant will underpin faster export growth. A
GDP growth (%): 1.0 2.0 2.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.0 -3.4 -2.4 rebound in fixed investment and recovering public spending will add impetus.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 70.8 68.5 - The health of the Chinese economy and Mercosur-EU trade negotiations
Inflation (%): 8.9 5.6 4.9
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.3 -2.6 -1.7 are factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.2%
in 2024, which is unchanged from one month ago, and expanding 2.5% in
2025.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts

Inflation: Consumer prices rose 4.1% year on year in May (April: 3.7%) on
faster food and transport inflation. Price pressures should rise further from
current levels on average later this year, edging above the midpoint of the
Central Bank’s 3.0–6.0% target range in H2 due to lower interest rates and
stronger domestic demand. That said, full-year inflation will come in below
2023 levels. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.2% on
average in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 5.6% on average in 2025.

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q4 GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 Monetary policy: On 16 May, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central
2021 - Q4 2025. forecasts during the last 12 months. Bank of Uruguay (BCU) held the policy rate at 8.50% as inflation remained
below the middle point of the BCU’s target range in March–April but inflation
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts expectations declined at a slow pace. Our panel sees room for slightly over
25 basis points of cuts by year-end. The BCU will meet next on 16 July.
FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate ending 2024 at
8.19% and ending 2025 at 7.67%.

Currency: The peso traded at UYU 39.08 per USD on 7 June, depreciating
2.5% month on month. The peso is set to weaken from its current level by
the end of 2024. Political uncertainty ahead of the October elections poses
a risk of depreciation, while the timing and pace of the Fed’s pivot are key
factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso ending 2024 at
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2024 and 2025
average variation in %, Q4 2021 - Q4 forecasts during the last 12 months. UYU 39.81 per USD and ending 2025 at UYU 41.51 per USD.
2025.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 132

 Uruguay June 2024

REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing production drops at sharpest rate since

May 2020 in March
Manufacturing Production | variation in % Latest reading: Manufacturing output decreased 16.7% year on year in March
(February: +0.9% yoy). The figure marked the worst reading since May 2020.
March’s reading was partly driven by a deterioration in food output. In addition,
paper output lost steam.

Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of
manufacturing production coming in at minus 1.2%, contrasting February’s plus
0.6% reading.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see manufacturing production

expanding 1.4% in 2024, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one
month ago, and expanding 3.6% in 2025.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of manufacturing
production in %. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation increases in May
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE).
Latest reading: Inflation rose to 4.1% in May from April’s 3.7%. Looking at
Inflation | Consumer Price Index the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages plus
transport rose at a quicker pace in May. Moreover, prices for clothing and
footwear declined at a slower pace.

Meanwhile, annual average inflation fell to 4.5% in May (April: 4.8%).

Finally, consumer prices increased 0.40% from the previous month in May,
which was below April’s 0.63% increase.

Outlook: Our panelists expect price pressures to accelerate by end-2024,

exceeding the mid-point of the Central Bank’s target range of 3.0–6.0% in H2.
That said, average inflation will decrease in 2024 as a whole from 2023.

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on risks to the outlook:
Source: INE.

“[We] expect inflation to […] close the year at 6%, which is right at the top of the
BCU’s 3-6% target range. Our forecasts assume that the next government will
maintain prudent fiscal and monetary policies. Risks to our forecast include a
spike in global commodity prices (especially for oil), and higher logistics costs
caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Another
risk to our forecasts is that the next government abandons orthodox fiscal and
monetary policies, which would push inflation higher.”

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 5.2%

on average in 2024, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month
ago, and rising 5.6% on average in 2025.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank stands pat in May

Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 16 May, the Monetary Policy Committee
of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) kept the policy rate unchanged at 8.50%,
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
following April’s 50 basis points cut.

Monetary policy drivers: The Central Bank’s decision was primarily influenced
by the goal of keeping inflation around the center of the 3.0–6.0% target
range. Inflation was reported at 3.7% in April, marking 11 consecutive months
within the target range. Additionally, average inflation expectations stood at
6.25%, showing a slow downward trajectory despite some rigidity. Meanwhile,
economic activity showed signs of expansion, driven by domestic consumption
and exports, as the negative effects of the drought faded.

Policy outlook: In its communiqué, the BCU did not provide explicit forward
guidance on the future direction of interest rates, stating that future decisions
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
Source: Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 133

 Uruguay June 2024

will depend on the evolution of both local and international conditions and the
convergence of inflation expectations towards the center of the target range.
Our panelists expect the BCU to cut interest rates further this year.

The next meeting is set for 16 July.

Our Consensus: FocusEconomics panelists see the monetary policy rate

ending 2024 at 8.19% and ending 2025 at 7.67%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 134

 Uruguay June 2024

Economic Indicators | 2019 - 2028

Annual Data 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Real Sector
Population (million) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
GDP per Capita (USD) 17,670 15,190 17,130 19,720 21,636 23,244 24,662 25,738 26,420 27,363
GDP (USD bn) 62.2 53.6 60.7 70.1 77.2 83.2 88.5 92.7 95.4 99.1
GDP (UYU bn) 2,194 2,255 2,646 2,889 2,999 3,235 3,609 4,063 4,321 4,674
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.3 2.8 17.4 9.2 3.8 7.9 11.6 12.6 6.3 8.2
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 0.9 -7.4 5.6 4.7 0.4 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.9 -8.4 3.2 5.7 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 -5.7 5.2 2.5 -0.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -3.0 -1.7 19.3 11.8 -7.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.6 -15.4 13.5 9.8 0.7 5.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.4 -12.1 17.9 12.4 6.0 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.5 2.3
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) -1.6 -5.2 12.3 3.6 0.6 1.4 3.6 3.1 2.5 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.9 10.4 9.3 7.9 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -5.2 -3.6 -3.2 -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 59.9 74.4 69.9 68.2 69.0 68.6 67.9 - - -
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M1 %) 4.9 15.7 16.4 -0.1 6.1 8.5 7.8 7.4 6.7 6.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.8 9.4 8.0 8.3 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 7.9 9.8 7.7 9.1 5.9 5.2 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.7
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 9.25 4.50 5.75 11.25 9.25 8.19 7.67 7.08 - -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 37.73 42.19 44.71 39.65 39.04 39.81 41.51 43.64 44.13 45.47
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 35.28 42.04 43.60 41.20 38.85 38.90 40.77 43.85 45.29 47.17
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.8 -0.4 -1.5 -2.7 -2.8 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.3 -0.7 -2.4 -3.9 -3.6 -2.1 -2.0 -2.1 -1.6 -1.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.1 2.2 4.6 3.5 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.9 10.1 15.8 17.0 15.1 17.0 17.4 18.4 19.2 19.9
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 8.8 7.9 11.2 13.5 13.0 14.0 14.6 15.7 16.4 17.1
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 0.7 -14.6 56.5 7.5 -11.5 12.8 2.1 5.8 4.4 3.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -6.8 -9.7 41.8 20.8 -4.1 8.1 3.7 7.7 4.6 4.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.0 0.8 2.2 3.8 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 14.5 16.2 17.0 15.1 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.0 18.8 19.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 19.9 24.6 18.1 13.4 15.0 14.4 14.5 13.7 13.7 13.8
External Debt (USD bn) 45.2 47.1 48.4 53.3 51.9 56.7 58.4 - - -
External Debt (% of GDP) 72.7 87.8 79.8 76.1 67.3 68.2 66.0 - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -0.2 2.0 1.0 2.9 4.1 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.1
Economic Growth (Real GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.3 4.8 4.5 4.2 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.6
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 10.00 9.25 9.00 8.50 8.38 8.25 - - - -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 38.55 39.04 37.56 38.54 39.44 39.80 39.71 40.29 41.87 42.64
Monthly Data Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24
Manufacturing Production (ann. var. %) 2.1 -4.4 9.1 2.4 -7.8 1.1 0.9 -16.7 - -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.3 7.8 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.0 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.17 0.61 0.63 0.34 -0.11 1.53 0.64 0.02 0.63 0.40
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.1 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.7 3.8 3.7 4.1
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 37.81 38.55 39.93 39.11 39.04 38.99 39.19 37.56 38.34 38.74
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -30.1 -4.4 1.5 22.6 2.1 -4.3 4.2 -24.6 28.7 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -10.0 0.1 -11.8 5.9 -14.7 -10.8 1.3 -17.0 26.0 -

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 135

 Uruguay June 2024

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance 1 | Real GDP | 2012 - 2028 | var. in %
Real GDP Fiscal Balance
variation in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BBVA Argentina 3.3 2.7 -3.0 -2.5
Capital Economics 1.8 2.0 - -
CINVE 3.0 2.2 - -
EIU 3.2 2.4 -3.5 -3.2
Equipos Consultores 3.7 2.5 -3.9 -3.5
Euromonitor Int. 3.4 2.7 - -
Fitch Ratings 3.2 2.6 -3.1 -3.0
Fitch Solutions 3.3 2.5 -3.0 -2.8
FrontierView 2.9 2.1 - -
HSBC 3.5 2.5 - -
Iecon - UdelaR 3.0 2.3 -4.0 -
Itaú Unibanco 3.5 3.0 - -
JPMorgan 2.7 2.2 - -
Julius Baer 3.2 2.0 - -
Moody's Analytics 3.3 2.5 -3.6 -5.2 2 | GDP 2024 | evolution of forecasts
Oikos 3.4 2.8 - -
Oxford Economics 3.1 2.7 -3.1 -3.0
Torino Capital 3.7 - -1.9 -
Public Forecasts
CEPAL 3.6 - - -
IMF 3.7 2.9 -2.8 -2.5
United Nations* 2.8 3.0 - -
World Bank 3.2 2.6 - -
Summary
Minimum 1.8 2.0 -4.0 -5.2
Maximum 3.7 3.0 -1.9 -2.5
Median 3.3 2.5 -3.1 -3.0
Consensus 3.2 2.5 -3.2 -3.2
History
30 days ago 3.2 2.5 -3.1 -3.1
60 days ago 3.2 2.5 -3.0 -3.1
90 days ago 3.1 2.4 -2.9 -3.1
3 | GDP 2025 | evolution of forecasts

4 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. The Consensus Forecast for Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) contains a range of definitions. All real sector
data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay) and Ministry of Economy and Finance
(Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas de Uruguay.) See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.

2 GDP, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
3 GDP, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
4 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU and Ministry of Economy and Finance.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 136

 Uruguay June 2024

Monetary Sector | Inflation

Consumer Prices 5 | Inflation | 2012 - 2028 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
variation in %, eop variation in %, aop
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BBVA Argentina 6.0 5.0 5.3 5.1
Capital Economics 5.0 5.1 4.0 4.5
CINVE 4.3 6.3 4.6 5.9
EIU 5.2 5.4 4.8 5.5
Equipos Consultores 5.7 6.0 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - 5.5 5.6
Fitch Ratings - - 5.1 5.5
Fitch Solutions 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8
FrontierView - - 5.3 5.6
HSBC 5.1 5.5 4.6 5.2
Iecon - UdelaR 5.7 6.0 5.2 6.0
Itaú Unibanco 5.5 5.5 - -
JPMorgan - - 5.1 5.9
Julius Baer - - 5.9 6.0
Moody's Analytics 5.2 6.5 5.0 6.0 6 | Inflation | Q4 21-Q4 25 | in %
Oikos 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.8
Oxford Economics 5.0 6.5 5.0 6.5
Torino Capital 5.8 - 6.7 -
Public Forecasts
IMF 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5
United Nations* - - 5.5 6.8
World Bank - - 5.8 5.7
Summary
Minimum 4.3 4.7 4.0 4.5
Maximum 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.5
Median 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.6
Consensus 5.3 5.7 5.2 5.6
History
30 days ago 5.5 5.8 5.3 5.6
60 days ago 5.7 5.9 5.4 5.7
90 days ago 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.8

7 | Inflation 2024 | evolution of fcsts

8 | Inflation 2025 | evolution of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

5 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).

6 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
7 Inflation, evolution of 2024 forecasts during the last 12 months.
8 Inflation, evolution of 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

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 Uruguay June 2024

Monetary and External Sector | Exchange Rate and Current Account

Exchange Rate and Current Account 9 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD
Exchange Rate Current Account
UYU per USD % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2024 2025 2024 2025
BBVA Argentina 40.30 42.50 -1.9 -1.1
Capital Economics - - - -
CINVE - - - -
EIU 39.89 41.35 -1.0 -2.2
Equipos Consultores 40.10 42.00 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - -1.4 -1.0
Fitch Ratings 38.91 39.69 -1.6 -1.2
Fitch Solutions 40.00 40.30 -3.2 -2.4
FrontierView - - - -
HSBC 38.00 - -3.4 -3.4
Iecon - UdelaR 41.00 44.00 -3.0 -
Itaú Unibanco 39.50 41.50 -1.0 -1.0
JPMorgan - - -2.3 -2.6
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics 39.76 38.88 -0.6 -0.9 10 | UYU per USD | evolution of fcsts
Oikos 40.06 43.38 - -
Oxford Economics 38.73 41.50 -2.8 -2.5
Torino Capital 41.46 - -0.1 -
Public Forecasts
IMF - - -3.6 -3.2
World Bank - - -3.2 -2.9
Summary
Minimum 38.00 38.88 -3.6 -3.4
Maximum 41.46 44.00 -0.1 -0.9
Median 39.95 41.50 -2.1 -2.3
Consensus 39.81 41.51 -2.1 -2.0
History
30 days ago 40.05 41.61 -2.5 -2.3
60 days ago 40.37 42.18 -2.4 -2.2
90 days ago 41.33 43.40 -2.8 -2.5

11 | Current Account | % of GDP

12 | Current Account | evol. of fcsts

Notes and sources

* Forecasts are not a part of the Consensus and are shown for informative purposes only.

Long-term chart period from 2012 to 2028 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU, Banco Central de
Uruguay) and Macrobond Financial AB. See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

9 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Macrobond Financial AB.
10 Exchange rate, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.
11 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
12 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2024 and 2025 forecasts during the last 12 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 138

 Uruguay June 2024

Fact Sheet

General Data Uruguay in the Region

Official Name Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital Montevideo (1.7 m)
Other cities Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2) 176,215
Population (million, 2024 est.) 3
Population density (per km2, 2024) 19.4
Population growth (%, 2024) 0.26
Life expectancy (years, 2024) 78.9
Literacy rate (%, 2024) 98.8
Language Spanish
Measures Metric system
Time GMT-3

Economic infrastructure Economic Structure

Telecommunication (2020) GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 36
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabitants): 140
Internet users (per 100 inhabitants): 90
Broadband subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 31

Energy (2022)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 64.9
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 162
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 15.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 11.8
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 42.4
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 51.7
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.1

Transportation (2024)
Airports: 64
Railways (km): 1,673 Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 77,732 Primary markets | share in %
Waterways (km): 1,600
Chief ports: Montevideo

Political Data
Head of State: Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou
Head of Government: Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou Exports Imports
Last Elections: 27 October 2019
Next Elections: 27 October 2024
Central Bank Governor Diego Labat

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Agency Rating Outlook Primary products | share in %

Moody's Baa1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings BBB+ Stable
Fitch Ratings BBB Stable

Strengths Weaknesses
Exports Imports
• Stable political environment • Dependence on neighboring
• Strong public institutions economies
• Market-friendly economic • Small domestic market
policies

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 139

 Notes and Statements
Notes June 2024

PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by
FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates and the world refer to economies surveyed
by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis. Weights are based on Consensus Forecasts for nominal
GDP (USD billion).

The regional aggregates include the following countries:

Latin America (21 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua,
Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago and Uruguay.
Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.
Central America and Caribbean (11 countries): Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El
Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and
Tobago.
Mercosur (4 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
World: 132 countries, comprising around 98% of global output.

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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
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LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 140

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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 132 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

MAJOR ECONOMIES & SWITZERLAND G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France,
Germany & Italy), Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS PLUS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, North Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate, 10-Year Bond Yield and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 35 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Diesel (U.S. benchmark), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas
(Europe), Natural Gas (U.S.), Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybedenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm oil, Soybeans, Sugar, Rice, Wheat and Wool

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