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Probability

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Probability

Mgu Bcom sem4 notes

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tituthomas00
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MODULE | The theory of probability was originally associated with the Games of Chance, viz., gambling, throwing a die, tossing a coin, drawing a card, horse racing etc. It was brought into the shape of theory first by Cardon, an Italian Mathematician. Subsequently this theory has been improved by a host of eminent mathematicians, namely, Galileo, Pascal, James Bernonli, Thomas Bayes, Markov, etc. ‘Yoday, the theory of probability has been very extensively developed and there is hardly any discipline - physical or social - where it is not very extensively used. In the field of Business and Economics it is very widely used for quantitative analysis of various problems, namely, statistical quality control, inventory control, queuing theory, etc. Meaning of probability Literally probability means the likely to rain today, the statement may If we express the change of happening © called the probability of that event. Theory of probability is an important branch of statistics which provides a numerical measure of uncertainty. an event also lies between ‘0° and ‘1’, Symbolically it can be ‘chance of happening.’ If any one says that it is or may not be true. Itis only a qualitative statement. f an uncertain event in numerical terms, it is The probability o expressed as follows: O9, i-e., probability is non-negative and it lies in between zero and one. 2. P(S) = 1,ie., Total probability = 1 3, P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B), if A and B are mutually exclusive. 4. P(AMB) = P(A) x P(B) Mlustration 1 Find the probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed. Solution When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes, Head and Tail. Out of these two Cut comes, one is favourable to Head. <. P Head) = + SESE '~S SSS, 5.8 Quantitative Techniques for Business-I Mustration 2 When two coins are tossed, what is the probability of getting: 1, both heads, 2. atleast one head and 3. no head Solution ‘When two coins are tossed, the outcomes may be any one of the following: HH, HT, TH, TT - 4 outcomes (1) P Both heads) =1 2) P (Atleast one head) = 3 (3) P (No head) =} Mlustration 3 ‘When three coins are tossed, what is the probability of getting: (1) All heads (2) Two heads (3) One head (4) At least one head (5) Atleast two heads (6) No head or all tails Solution When three coins are tossed, the out comes may be any one of the following: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT - 8 outcomes (1) P (All heads) =18 (2) P (Two heads) = 3/8 (3) P (One head) = 38 (4) P (At least one head) = = 7/8 (5) P (At least two heads) = 4/8 (© P (No head/all tails) = 1/8 Illustration 4 A card is drawn from a pack of cards. What is the probability that it is: (1) a red card (2) a king (3) a queen (4) a spade (5) a spade king (6) aking or a queen (7) an ace (8) a black card a ae slo 52 cards in th qhere are le packet. There 0 pility from a pack of cards the outcomes are: 5.9 fore, the outcomes are also 52. When a card is Spade (Black) | Club (Black) | “Heart (Red) | Diamond (Red) | a Jack Jack | Jack | som King King | King Queen Queen Queen | 0 Ace Ace Ace ‘Ate » 10 of 9 9 b | 7 7 8 8 | 8 | 7 1 7 | 7 | # 6 6 | 6 | 5 5 5 5 | 4 4 4 4 3 3 3) | 3 2 2 2 | 2 Total 13 Total 13 | Total 13 | Tol 130 So the total number of cases = 1. P (Drawing a red card) =#-4 2. P (Drawing a king) =4= 4 3. P (Drawing a queen) -4-4 4. P (Drawing a spade) =8-1 5. P (Drawing a spade king) = 6. P (Drawing a king or a queen) = 7. P (Drawing an Ace) = RE Slt Se Sb Se Si Se SR OB 8. P (Drawing a black card) = le La wd 5.10 Quantitative Techniques for Business-1] Mlustration 5 ‘What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays? Solution {ma leap year there are 2 complete weeks and 2 extra days (i.e., 366 days). 52 weeks have 52 Sundays. The following are the possible combinations for the 2 extra days: ‘Sunday and Monday; Monday and Tuesday; ‘Tuesday and Wednesday; Wednesday and Thursday; ‘Thursday and Friday; Friday and Saturday; Saturday and Sunday. There are 7 possible outcomes; out of which 2 are favourable cases, -. Required probability = 2 Mustration 6 A ball is drawn from a box containing 6 red, 3 white and 5 green balls, Find the probability thatthe ball drawn is (1) red (2) white (3) green (4) not red (5) white or red, Solution 1. P(Drawing a red ball) 2. POrawing a white ball) 3. P(Drawing a green ball) 4. P (Not a red ball) 5. P (White or red ball) Mlustration 7 6 = 4 she A die is thrown, find the probability of getting: (1) a4 (2) an even number (3)3 or 5 (4) less than 3 Solution A die has 6 faces. Therefore, when a die is thrown the Possible out comes may be: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6 Number of favourable cases P(A) = Total numberof all possible casei (1) P (getting the number 4) = (2) P (getting an even number) = (3) P (getting 3 or 5) (4) P (getting a number less than 3) nove) 5.11 sian 5 ) 0) 3) ) 5) jiased die a ir Two unbi : re thrown. Find the Probability that: oth the die show the same number one die shows 5 First die shows 5 Total of the numbers of the die is 8 Total of the numbers of the die is greater than 8. solution while throwing two die, the outcomes may be any one of the following: at) 2,1) G1) 4) 6,1) 6,1) (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2) (1,3) 2,3), 3,3) (4,3) (6,3) (6,3) (1,4) (2,4) G,4) (4,4) 6,4) 6,4) (1,5) (2,5) G,5) (4,5) (5,5) 6,5) (1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6) ___Number of favourable cases P(A) = Total number of all possible cases (1) P (Both the die show the same number) = & = 4 36 (2) P. (One die shows 5) = 2 (3) P First die shows 5) = & = 4 (4) P (Total of the numbers on the die is 8) = 35 (5) P (Total of the numbers on the die is greater than 8) = 42 Illustration 9 Tickets are numbered from 1 to 100. They are well shuffled and a ticket is drawn at random. What is the probability that the ticket drawn has: (1) 2) 3) (4) An even number A number 5 or multiple of 5 A number which is greater than 75 A number which is a perfect square Saree aceon 5.12 Quantitative Techniques for Business. Solution (A) = Number of favourable cases P(A) = “Total numberof al posibe cas (1) P (an even number) = Hod (2) P (a number 5 or multiple of 5) -% or} (3) P (@ number greater than 75) = Hod (4) P (@ number which is a perfect square) = y ot NB: Perfect squares included in 1 to 100 are: 1, 22, 37, 42, 52, 62, 72, 8, 9, 102 Number of favourable cases =10 Total number of all possible cases. = 100 ‘Tllustration 10 A box contains 500 bolts of which 40 are defective. Find the probability that a bolt chosen at random from the box is not defective. Solution There are 500 bolts in the box and one bolt is chosen at random, Out of the 500 bolts, 40 are defective and the remaining 460 are not defective. Now consider the event A that the bolt chosen is not defective. Hence the number of cases favourable to the event A is 460. Number of favourable cases P(A) = Total number of all possible cases | ., = $60 = 23 Permutation and Combinations 1. Permutation The word permutation refers to arrangement. Permutation refers to the different ways in which a number of objects can be arranged in a definite order. The different arrangements can be made with a given number of things taking some or all of them at a time. The order of arrangement of objects is important in ascertaining the number of permutations of objects. “A permutation of ‘n’ different objects taken ‘r’ at a time, denoted by np,, is an orderly arrangement of only ‘r’ objects out of the ‘n’ objects.” That means np, is the number of arrangements of r objects taken from a set of n objects. jlity prova 5.13 Th . npr > The number of permutations of n objects taken r ata time. number of permutati re The Permutations of ‘n" objects taken‘ ata time is given by the formula: tr * Gn where, 01 = number of different objects Tr - j i / umber of objects taken at a time from the different objects. yB: 1. [n! is read as ‘n factorial’ = n(n-1) (-2) ...] 15! =5x43x251 = 120 Factorial of a number is defined number 2. [It should be carefully noted that 0! is equal to 1} as the product of all natural numbers upto that Types of ‘Permutations 4, Permutations with repetitions When repetition is allowed, the number of permutation of ‘n’ things taken ‘r’ at a time would be nt. Example In how many ways can 4 letters be mailed if 3 mail boxes are available. Ans: Here, each of the 4 letters can be mailed in any of the 3 mail boxes. .. The solution is 3x3x3x3 = 34 = 81 ways or nP, = n' = 34 = 81 ways 2, Permutation with something alike The number of permutation of ‘n’ things taken all at a time, of which ‘p’ are alike of one kind, ‘q’ are alike of another kind etc. will be PI Example: Number of ways in which the letters of the word ‘ASSISTANT’ can be arranged among themselves. . 5.14 Quantitative Techniques for Business-I1 Ans: The above word contains 2A’s, 3 S's and 2 T's. +. The required number of words = wqy = SEEDHS _ 15199 = 23s 22 3. Circular Permutations The number of ways of arranging n different objects around a circle is (n-1)! Example: ways, In how many ways can 6 person be seated around a round table. Ans: Let one of them be seated anywhere, Then the Temaining 5 persons can be seated in 5! ways. Hence, the required number of ways = 5! = 120 Mlustration 11 How many 3 letter words can be made using the letters of the word “SIMPLE”? Solution pg esac = GH! a = 120 TMllustration 12 How many arrangements are possible of the letters of the word “ARJUN”? Solution m= St = 65! =5x%4x3x%2%1 =120ways Mlustration 13 Find the total number of ways in which the letter of the word ‘COIN’ be arranged. Solution The word COIN has 4 letters. These letters can be freely arranged among themselves in : it «2x1 4P, ways. ie. $f = S321 — 24 ways, il 5.15 ion 14 many ways cai i gio jnitow ly ways can 10 seats be Occupied by 4 students? jont il a = —l0 1079 484776! a 10P4 = ag = eT = Got = 5040 gration 15 Find the number of ways in which the leters of the word ‘PENCIL’ be arranged so yin js always next to ‘E’, jon The given word has 6 letters. since N is always with E, treat the two letters as one unit. ‘The remaining 4 letters along with the unit ‘EN’ effectively contribute 5 letters which an be arranged in 5! = 120 ways. stration 16 How many words can be formed using the letters of the word ‘DAUGHTER’ if j. the vowels are to be together. ii. the vowels are never together. Solution The vowels in the given word are A, E and U. i If they are to be together, treat the set of vowels (A E U) as one unit and arrange them along with the remaining 5 letters in 6! ways. The set of vowels can be arranged among themselves in 3! ways. Hence the required number of ways would be 6! x 3! = 720x6 = 4320 ways. i. If there is no restriction, the 8 letters in the word can be arranged in 8! ways, out of which the vowels are together in 4320 ways. Hence, the number of arrangements in which they are never together will be 8! - 4320 = 40320 - 4320 = 36000. ustration 17 There are 3 red balls, 4 blue balls and 5 yellow balls. In how many ways can they be ranged in a row. a! 5.16 Quantitative Techniques for Businessjy Solution We have a total of 3+4+5 = 12 balls. Since 3 are alike of one kind, 4 alike of another Kind and 5 alike of yet another kind, the required number of arrangements are sits = 27720 ways. Mlustration 18 ‘How many arrangements are Possible out of the letters of the word Solution Number of permutations = “FARIDABAD™ came: Bien! ae ye 9x8x7 x6x5x4x3%2%1 ae = 3x 3xdxIxaxt = 30240 Mlustration 19 There are 5 gentlemen and 4 ladies. In how many ways they can be seated in a round table if no two ladies are to be together. Solution Let the five gentlemen occupy them seats first, which is Possible in (5-1) = The 4 ladies can be arranged in 5 Place in SP, ways. Hence the required number of ways = 4! x SP, = 2880 ways. 2. Combinations 4! ways, The word combination refers to ‘groups’. When groups of items are taken from a given set of distinct elements without regard to any specific order of their appearence, then such group of items are known as combinations. Combination is different from permutation as the order of arrangement of objects is immaterial in the former while it is important in the latter. A combination of ‘n’ different objects taken ‘r’ at a time, denoted by nC, is a selection of only ‘r’ objects out of the ‘n’ objects, without any regard to the order of arrangement. The number of combinations of ‘n’ different objects taken ‘r’ at a time is al aC, = Gnu: Thus if we have to pick up two alphabets out of three A, B and C, we can pick up AB, AC and BC or 3C, ways. provaditio 5.17 nC, = 3C, = GA dean ! 3-2 = Ie2z7 properties of Combination i aC, = 1 1 aC, = AC, 7 nc, + 0C,,, = M+ic,,, piustration 20 In how many ways can three flowers be chosen out of eight? Solution a! aC, = (a-nirt _ 8! gt 8x7 x6xs5! 8C, = @3a = TT = mo = 56 ways Mlustration 21 In how many ways can a committee of 3 women and 4 men be chosen from 8 women and 7 men? Solution There are 8C, ways of selecting 3 women and 7C, ways of selecting men. 1 1 dat 8C3x7C4 = wa cope = a 8x7x6x5! _ 7x6x5x4! = Shaxaxl * 3x2xixat = 1960 ways Mlustration 22 In an examination paper on statistics 10 questions are set. In how many different ways can an examinee choose 7 questions? Solution ‘The required number of ways can an examinee choose 7 questions out of 10 is 10C,. Wx 9xBK TE . 10C, = Sc = uate = !20.ways i. 518 Quantitative Techniques for Business-I Mustration 23 A bag contains 20 white and 15 black balls. In how many ways we can select 4 white and 3 black balls from the bag. Solution 4 white balls from 20 can be selected in 20C, ways. Similarly 3 black balls can be Selected out of 15 balls in 15C; ways. Therefore 4 white balls and 3 black balls together can be selected in 20C, x 15C, ways. 201 St 20! 15! 20C,x 15C; = GHA“ TS-3iH = Telal * TH = 22,04,475 ways Mlustration 24 Out of 4 officers and 10 clerks in a business firm, a committee consisting of 2 officers and 3 clerks is to be formed. In how many ways can this be done if: 1. Any officer and any clerk can be included 2. One particular clerk must be on the committee. 3. Two particular officers cannot be on the committee. Solution 1. 2 Officers out of 4 can be selected in 4C, ways. 3 Clerks out of 10 can be selected in 10C, ways. -. Total number of possible selection = 4C,x 10C, = 720 2. 2 Officers out of 4 can be selected in AC, ways 2 Clerks out of 9 (one already selected) can be selected in 9C, ways, <. Total number of possible selections = 4C, x 9C, = 216 3. 2 Officers out of 2 (2 officers were excluded) can be selected in 2C, ways. 3 clerks out of 10 can be selected in 10C, ways. Total number of possible selection =2C, x 10C, = 120 il pool? 5.19 ration 25 prove that 0! solution umber of i ies ‘The nl i beeen of ‘n’ different things taken all at a time is N(0-1) (0-2) ... (n-nt1) = ni! 7 ie ap, = a! sana(l). =e Also MP Gem A cn Q) From (1) and (2) n! = % or 0! = Mustration 26 In how many ways can a cricket team of eleven be chosen out of 15 players. Solution Here it is only a selection, but not an arrangement. A team of 11 players out of 15 is tobe chosen. This can be done in 15C,, ways. = Sts) Sx x 13x12 UIE = Tain > Beth = axaeaarere = 1365 Mlustration 27 From 7 females and 6 males, a committee of 8 persons is to be formed. In how many ways can this be done when committee consists of exactly 4 males. Solution Since we have to include exactly 4 males, we have to take the rest four females. We can select 4 males out of 6 in 6C, ways. The 4 females out of 7 can be chosen in7C, ways. Hence the committee consisting of exactly 4 males can be formed in 6C,x 7C, ways = 154.35 = 525 ways. ae I ag) 5.20 Quantitative Techniques for Business. Theorems of Probability There are two important theorems of Probability, namely: 1. The Addition Law or Theorem of Probability, and 2. The Multiplication Theorem 1. Addition Theorem Case 1: When the events are mutually exclusive This theorem states that if two events A and B are mutually that any one of them would happen is the sum of the probabilities Aor B. Symbolically: exclusive the Probability 8 of the happening Of either P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) or P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Mlustration 28 A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of cards. What is the Probability that it is a King or an Ace? Solution P(A-aking) = 4 52 P@-an Ace) = 4 The above events are mutually exclusive. -PAUB)=P(A)+ PB) =S+h =Sard Mlustration 29 The probability that a Company executive will travel by train is 2/3 and that he will travel by plane is 1/5. What is the probability of his travelling by train or plane? Solution P (AUB) = P(A) + PB) P(A - travelling by train) = 2 PB - travelling by plane) = } P(A orB) =4+1-8 jit? 5.21 " when the events are not mutually exclusive n the events on not mutually exclusive the above theorem does not hold good. If A 1B are two events which are not mutually exclusive, then: . paAvB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B) pao B) = P(A) + P(B)- P(A and B) gration 30 ‘Acard is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that it is or a spade? just iin tution p(AvB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AMB) p(A-a king) =% p(B-aspade) = B But in spade cards also there will bea king. As such if we add the above two probabilities, we will be including the spade king twice. Thus, the two events are not mutually exclusive. P (ANB) =% P (AUB) = P(A) + PB) - PAOB) P (AUB) =4+B-L-Bog Mustration 31 In drawing one card from a peck of 52.cards, find the probability that a single draw will be either a face card or a spade card. Solution Let A be the event of drawing a face card. There are face cards (Jack, King and Queen) in each of the four suits (Heart, Spade, Diamond and Clubs). Thus the face cards are 12 in number, Let B the event of drawing a spade card. There are 13 spade cards, out of which three ate face cards. P(A) = & - probability of drawing a face card P@) = 4 - probability of drawing a spade card mn Sl Quantitative Techniques for Business.) 5.22 P(ANB) = 3- Probability of drawing a spade face card P(A) + PB) - PAN B) 2. Multiplication Theorem P(AUB) = P (AUB) w Case 1: When the events are independent This theorem states that if two simultaneously, the Probability of thei events A and B are independent and can happen P(ANB) or P (A and B) ir joint occurrence is denoted by P(ANB) = P(A) x PB) Mlustration 32 random one after another with replacement, What is the Probability that the first draw will give a Dlack ball and the second draw will give a white ball? Solution P(ANB) = P(A) x PB) P(A. drawing a black ball) = 2 PB - drawing a white ball) = 4 P (ANB) =3.4$=28 * The theorem can be extended to three or more events. Thus, P(A, B and C) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C) Case 2: When the events are dependent If events A and B are so related that the occurrence of B is affected by the occurrence of A, then A and B are called dependent events. The probability of event B depending on ies eae A), the occurrence of event A is called conditional Probability and is written as P(B/A). which may be read as “the Probability of B given A” prowadilty 5.23 ability ‘The probability that both the dependent events A and B will occur is given by: PAM) = PA) x PBA) iustration 33 A bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls. One ball is drawn from the bag which is por replaced _Then a second ball is drawn from the bag. Find the probability that both balls of the two drawings are white, Solution P (A - drawing a white ball) = 4 (Since there are 4 white balls in the bag of 7 balls) Event B depends on the occurrence of event A. If the first ball drawn is white, the probability for the second draw to have a white ball is: P(B/A) = 2 (Since there are only three white balls left in the bag of the 6 balls after the first white ball is drawn). P(AMB) = P(A) x P(B/A) The probability that both balls in the two draws are white is given by: = 4,3 - 1 PAB) = $x2 = 2 or 2 42 Conditional Probability A probability of a dependent event is called conditional probability . Probability of an event B given that A has happened is called the conditional probability of B given A and is denoted by P(B/A). In other words the probability of event B depending on the occurrence of event A is called conditional probability of B given A. P(ANMB) 7 P(A and B) PAY" P(A) P(B/A) = Illustration 34 From a pack of playing cards two cards are drawn at random one after the other without replacement. Find the probability that both of them are court cards. Solution There are 12 court cards, viz, 4 kings 4 queens and 4 knaves (Jack), and total 52 cards in a pack of playing cards. Quantitative Techniques for Business-11 5.24 Probability of drawing a court card in the first instance is given by: Pa) =Bod The probability oe @ court card in the second draw is given by P(B/A) = Probability eee PANB) = P(A) x PIA) = Fx Ht = BE or UL 221 Mlustration 35 A bag contain 7 red, 12 white and 4 green balls. What is the balls drawn are all white and (b) 3 balls drawn are one of each colour Solution 2c, L (a) P(A-3 balls drawn are white) = 35-2 Probability that: @3 1C, = ac, = ware eh =17 PA) = TC, x 12C, x 4C, (b) P(A - one of each colour) = ae, + 1 2 1, = Gy > Gx =7 ww 12 RC = Wm > Tid =12 4. at 4, = @ym = =4 7x12*4 336 PA) = Sar > ia Mlustration 36 Four cards are drawn from a full pack of cards. Find the probability that: (a) There is one card of each suit. (b) Two cards are spades and two are hearts. (c) All the four are kings we 5.25 @ All the four are spades and one of them is aking lion @ 0 0 @ 13C)x 13¢ « 136, «130, = eee P(A) 52C, 3 ql 13C, = (3-pm = wa = 13 sus: 52C, = GL-aia = Bag = 2707s i) = 13213«13%13 _ ogs6y P(A - one card of each suit) ns = BS Pp (A - two cards are spades and two are hearts) _ 13C, x13C, = SC, 13C, = 18x78 _ 6084. 468 P(A) = 7075 = 210725 * 20825 AC, P(A - all the 4 cards are kings) = 33 4! 4 4c, =] = ox o! =1 4! 4c, =Tka=l tea Silas’ PA) = RT P(A - all the four are spades and one of them is a king) = 123 we, = gen = 220 PA) = 5.26 Quantitative Techniques for Business- Mlustration 37 5 men in a company of 20 are graduates. If 3 men are picked out of the 20 at random, what is the probability that they are all graduates? What is the probability 0 atleast one graduate? Solution (1) (3 men can be picked out of 20 at random in 20C, ways. Number of possible cases = 20C, 0c, = apegrn 7 Hy = 140 (ii) 3 men can be picked out of 5 at random in 5C, ways Number of possible cases = 5C, ! SCs = wm > T= 0 Seo) PA) = 2G, = Tao = Te (2) In order to find the probability of atleast one graduate, it will be easier to find out the probability of the complementary event, i.e., “none is a graduate.” P (Selecting at least one) = 1 - P (Selecting none) P (Selecting none) = 2, 15C, P (Selecting none) P (Selecting atleast one) Mlustration 38 A sub committee of 6 members is to be formed out of a group consisting of 7 men and 4 ladies. Obtain the probability that the sub committee will consist of: (1) Exactly 2 ladies, and (2) At least 2 ladies Solution 1, P(A- exactly 2 Indies) = Te? = “Gey it 2. P (A- atleast 2 ladies) = (Probability of 2 ladies and 4 men; or 3 ladies and 3 men; or 4 ladies and 2 men) " IC, x4C, _ 35%6 L (AC, x7Cq) + (4C5x7C3) + (4C4x7C,) 6 x5) + (4x35) + (1X21) _ 191 P(A) = TIC, epee nae auaepeerauauae (a 402, np owradility 5.27 spustration 39 ommitt tested A COMINEE Of 4 has tobe formed from among 3 Economists, 4 Engineers, 2 Statisticians fF —ggd 1 Doctor. cp Whats he probbitity tat each ofthe four profesions is represented on the committee? ci Whats the protabity thatthe committee consists of the doctor and atleast one economist? solution There are 10 members in all and a committee of 4 out of them can be formed in 10C, ways: -. No. of possible cases = 10C, = qo a = Hh = 210 (i) Probability that the committee consists of each of the four professions: 3C, x4C, x 2¢, x 1C = SEG IG, _ 3x 4x 2x1 ng a BA) loc, 210 = 210 ~ 35 Gi) “Probability that the committee consists of the doctor and at least one economist: P(A) = P(one doctor, one economist and 2 others) + P(one doctor; two economists and | Lother) + P (one doctor and 3 economists) MIC, x 3C, x 6C,) | (IC, x3C,x6C,) _ (IC, x3C, x6Cy) we LEASE), AC *SC, 6G), OE *3C, OE) PA) 10C, + T0C, * 10C, = & oy 32 ! 210 % ios Mlustration 40 Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that both are spades? Solution Since two cards are drawn from 52 cards, the total number of sample points in the sample Space is 52C,. Let A be the event, “both cards drawn are spades”, then A consists of 13C, sample points. 13C, 4 P(A) = 0G, * 17 Heer eeeeeet a 5.28 Quantitative Techniques for Business-11 Mlustration 41 From a bag containing 5 white balls and 3 black balls, which are identical in all respects except the colour, 3 balls are drawn at random. What is the probability that they are white? Solution Since 3 balls are drawn from 8 balls, the sample space consists of 8C, sample points. Let A be the event, “the balls drawn are white.” Then A consists of 5C, sample points, SC. PA= a Mustration 42 ‘A bag contains 12 one rupee coins, 7 fifty paise coins and 4 twenty five paise coins. Find the probability of drawing. (1) a rupee coin, (2) 3 rupee coins, and (3) 3 coins, one of each type Solution (1) P(A — a rupee coin) = 12¢, (2) P(A 3 rupee coins) = 33¢% = 8h 120, x7C,x4C, _ 12x 7x4 - a (3) P (A- one of each type) = 23C, Pee eee ra Illustration 43 A bag contains 3 red, 4 white and 5 black balls. Three balls are taken from the bag. Find the probability that: (1) all are back; and (2) all are of different colours. Solution SC, (1) P(A- all are black) = 77, (2) P(A - all are of different colours) = xq. = aap Illustration 44 The Pepsi India Ltd. has 40 female employees and 60 male employees. If two employees are selected at random, what is the probability that: probability (i) BOtH Will be mate Gi) Both Will be female (iii) There wit he One of each sex Solution 5.29 i) P (A- both wi 60C, @ willbe males ) = pq = 3$58 = 386 sa (A - ‘ 40C. (i) PA-Yot i be ones) = nade = IB = HS sai - 40C, x 60C, 60 Gi) PA One of each sex) = —j0e, + es 0x6 S 9 Mustration 45 Three students A, B and C are given a problem in statistics. The probabilities of their solving the problem are 3/4, 2/4 and 1/4 respectively. What is the probability that the problem being solved by any of them? Solution P (A - solving the problem) P(A - not solving the problem) P @B - solving the problem) P (B - not solving the problem) P (C - solving the problem) P (C - not solving the problem) P (None solving the problem) P (Any one solving the problem) i] Illustration 46 3 4 on 1-3-4 2 4 2 1-3=3 1 4 1-t=3 1 bdxd- God 1-P (None solving the problem) 1-222 32 32 If 5 coins are tossed once, what is the chance of turning up 3 heads? If a coin is tossed five times, what is the chance of turning up 3 heads? ae —y siness.np owe 5.30 Quantitative Techniques 5 Solution Tossing 5 coins once = Tossing on¢ ‘A coin has 2 sides - a head and a tail Number of coins or times tossed = - cag ‘ sible cases = 2° = eae nae Hence the total number of cases favourable 4g 3 SC; = Gru = 10 ees P (A - chance of turning up 3 heads) = 32 ~ 16 in five times ing one coil Vent is 5c y Mlustration 47 ‘A card is drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of cards. What is the probaly it that it is a heart or a queen? ty Solution Let A denotes the event of drawing a heart and B denotes the event of drayin, from a pack of cards. Then we have: PA)= 8; PB=F palit 13 A te ne P(AUB) =P(A) + PB)-PANB) = H+ Hse GO iS @ queen There is only one case favourable to the event ANB, i.e. Queen of Heart @). Mlustration 48 One card is drawn from a pack of 52. What is the probability that it is either a king ora queen. Solution P (A - drawing a king card) P (B - drawing a queen card) P (AUB) = P(A) + PB) Mlustration 49 A bag contains 25 balls numbered from 1 to 25, one is to be drawn at random. Find the probability that the number of the drawn ball will be a multiple of 5 or 7. probally 5.31 jjution ‘The multiples ofS are 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 and multiples of 7 are 7, 14 and 21. P(A-multipleotS) = £; p(B multiple of?) = % p(AvB) itustration 50 ‘The Probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the probability shat he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting at least one contract jg 4/5, what is the probability that he will get both the contracts? Solution =PA)+ PB = f+ = 35 P(A- getting a plumbing contract) = 3 PB getting an electric contract) = 1-3 = $ P (AUB) =4 P (AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - ANB) P(AMB) = P(A) + PB)-P(AUB) = 344-4 = WER Mlustration 51 If the probability of a horse A winning a race is 1/6 and the probability of a horse B winning the same race is 1/4, what is the probability that one of the horses will win? Solution P (A ~ winning the race by horse A)= + P (B - winning the race by horse B) = P (AUB) =t4+7 = Mlustration 52 A bag contains 4 white, 2 black, 3 yellow and 3 red balls. What is the probability of getting a white or a red ball at random in a single draw. Solution P(A -getting a white ball) = = 75 P (B- getting a red ball) i P(AUB) = P(A) + PB) —— 5,32 Quantitative Techniques for Business. Mlustration 53 ‘A bag contains $ white balls and 6 red balls. One ball is drawn at random and replaced, Again one ball is drawn at random from the bag. What is the probability that the ball drawn each time is white? Solution Total number of balls = =5+6=11 P(A- drawing a white ball) = P (B~ drawing a white ball after the frst ball has been replaced) = P(AMB) = PA) xP®) = xh =H “. Probability of drawing a white ball each time is 3 Illustration 54 Find the probability of drawing a king, a queen and an ace in this order from a pack of 52 cards in three consecutive draws, the card drawn not being replaced. Solution P(A - drawing a king card in the first draw) = P (B - drawing a queen card in the second draw, without replacing the first card) = P (C-- drawing an ace in the third draw, without replacing the two cards) = P(AnBnC) = SX 4% = es Note: The draw of the second card depends on the draw of the first card. Similarly, the draw of the third card depends on the draw of the first and second cards. So the events are dependent: Mlustration 55 A can kill a bird once in three shots. On this assumption he fires three shots. Find the probability that the bird is not killed. Solution The probability of the bird being killed in one shot = 4 Hence, the probability that the bird is not killed in one shot = 1- 4 = 3 . The probability that the bird will not be killed in all the three shots 2,228 3 Rag eM 3 aT provabillty 5.33 goustration 56 A company isto @ppoint a BA: a4 CA. the probabil probability OF Being such a per Person as its Managing Director who must be an M. Com, ty of which are 1/20; 1/40 and 1/50 respectively. Find the 'son to be appointed by the company. solution The probaly ofa person beng an M. Com, = P(A) = 25 The probably of person being an MBA. = PCB) = The Probability ofa person being a C.A. =PO) = 35 Thus, the probability ofa person having all these three qualities is given by ACAMBrC) = P(A) x PCB) x PC) eel eee eae 20 * 40 * 50 = 40000 [lustration 57 The odds agaist A solving the problem are 5:4 and the odds in favour of B solving the same ate 3:7. Find the probability that: @ Both A and B solving the problem (ii) The problem is not solved if they try independently and ii) The problem is solved by at least one. Solution Let A_—_= The event of A solving the problem B_ = The event of B solving the problem K = The event of A not solving the problem B = The event of B not solving the problem P(A) = § - A solving the problem P(X) = $-A not solving the problem P(B) = 7b -B solving the problem P(g) = 7 ~ Brot solving the problem 4 2 () P(A, = PA) xP) = 9% 40 = is The probability of both A and B solving the problem is 4 _ aaa ee at tee = tay Quantitative Technigy eS fy, Usines 5 n 3.34 see Gi) PX AB) =P(A)XMB)= 9" 10 Ived, if they try ind The probability of the problem will Ot be solv “pendently, i, L Gi) ‘The problem wl be stved by ateastane Fetes A or Bor boty gp 8 ST Solve hs is given by P(AVB)- a Ne why P(AUB) = P(A) +PB)-PAAMB)= 9% 10 15 ~ 1 Mlustration 58 ; ‘One bag contains 4 white and 2 black balls. Another contains 3 White andy One ball is drawn from each bag. Find the probability that: Heck balls (j) Both are of the same colour: (ii) Both are of different colours Solution Let ‘A - the event of getting a white ball from the first bag, B- the event of getting a white ball from the second bag, C - the event of getting a black ball from the first bag, D- the event of geting a black ball from the second bag, (1) P (Both are ofthe same color) = PCA white bl from the fist bag and a white tal fo the second bag) or (a black ball from the first bag and a black ball from th second bap), PAMB)U(CAD) = P(A) x P(B) + PIC) x PCD) 4,3) mee 7 = (6) +Ga a (ii) P (Both are of different colours) = P(a white ball from the first bag and a black ball from the second bag) or (a black ball from the first bag and a white ball from the second bag) PAAD)UBNG = (bx 4)+(2«3) 7 B Illustration 59 An umm contains 5 white and 7 black balls, A second urn contains 7 white and 8 black balls. One ball is drawn at random and put into the second urn without noticing its colour. A ball is then drawn at random from the second urn. What is the probability that itis white? wy 5.35 probability solution p(Drawine & white ball from the un A) = +f p (Drawing a black ball from the urn A) = 7 p (Drawing a White ball from the umn B, if the transferred ball is white) fe = 1 ES aL. 6 p (Drawing white ball from the urn B, if the transferred ball is black) P (Drawing a white ball from urn B) = P(Drawing a white ball from urn A transferring it to urn B, drawing a white ball from urn B) or (drawing a black ball fro and after transferring it to urn B, drawing a white ball from urn B). = (eet) (be) =e Ilustration 60 Akhil and Nikhil appear for an interview for two posts. The probability of AKhil’s selection is 3/5 and that of Nikhil’s selection is 1/3. Find the probability that only one of them and after m urn A will be selected. Solution Let A and B the events when Akhil and Nikhil are respectively selected. Since the events of selection of Akhil and Nikhil are independent. P (AB) v (BA) = P(A) x PCB) + PB) x P(A) P(A) — = Akhil’s selection P(X) — = Akhil’s rejection P(B) = Nikhil’s selection PCB) = Nikhil’s rejection Required probability = Mlustration 61 The probability of student A passing an examination is 3/5 and of student B passing 4/5. Assuming the two events “A passes” and “B passes” as independent, find the probability of iy wuantitative Techy: uy Q echniques : Business. (i) Both students passing the examination Gi) Only A passing the examination iii) Only one of them passing the examination iv) None of them passing the examination Solution 3 P ‘ing the P(A passing the exam) = 3 CB passing the exam) 4 s (® P (Both students passing the exam) = P(AMB) 422 P(ANB) = P(A) x PB) = 5 *5 > 25 Gi) P (only A passing the exam)= P(A) x PCB) hes xt= tale = 3x( ii) P Only one of them passing the exam) = POA) x PCB) + PP) x PAD = [3xd4[4x2 = [x4+[2«0-3] = Ba} f$~3] . aa Required probability = 3 + = 3 (iv) P (None of them passing the exam) = (KB) = P(A) x PCB) (i 2 on =(-04) = ddd Mustration 62 AA speaks truth in 75% and B in 80% of the cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other narrating the same incident. Solution Let P(A), P(B), be the probability of A and B speaking the truths. Then: ma) = Bed 7B = Bed PCR) = P(Atellsalie) = 1-3 = 1 PCB) = PBeellsaliey = 1-4 =F prolly 5.37 Now P (A and B Will contradict) = P(A or AB) d= +t = 20 35% e-5 PCAB) + (3 ie POAB) + (Ag) = (3x d)+(L<4) = hm slustration 63 Box A contains 4 white and 3 red balls and Box B contains 2 white and 5 red balls. One ofthe BOXES is tobe chosen at random and a ball i to be selected from the chosen box. What is the probability of drawing a white ball? solution P (A - choosing box A) P @B - choosing box B) P (Drawing a white ball from the first box) P (Drawing a white ball from the second box) P (Drawing a white ball from any of the boxes) = Re NE 4,226.23 ati = a7 Illustration 64 A card is drawn from a pack of 52 crds and a gambler bets it as a spade or an ace. What are the odds against his winning this bet. Solution If A be the event that the card drawn is a spade and B be the event that the card drawn is an ace, then P(A) = and PB) = Since there is only one spade ace P(A and B) = zy Hence the required probability is P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)- P(A and B) = Bysia ‘Thus fromthe above p= ,q=1-H=% nqip) = 934 saw Quantitative Techniques foy Business- Mlustration 65 Mhore ate 3 events A.B and Cone of which mnst, and only one ean Wappen, the ods are To Vagainst A and 6 to 4 against B, find the odds against C, Solution Given KAY = and 4B) © Since the events A. B and C are mutually exchusive PAD + PYB) + KC) & len hehero ed a dy ya | ie. PE) = 1-(hs gd) = 1d i | Hence the odds against the event C are 7 to 3 Mlustration 66 A man and woman appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The Probability of man’s selection is 1/7 and that of woman's selection is 1/: that: (a) both of them will be selected (b) only them will be selected. 5. What is the probability one of them will be selected and (¢) none of Solution Let A: man is selected A’: man is not selected where A’ is the complement of A B: woman is selected ws vomnan is not selected where B’ is the complement of B Clearly A and B are independent. Also A and B’ are independent, B’ and A’ are independent | AY and B are independent. @) P(A and B) = P(A) x PB) = Txd= (b) P (only one of them will be selected) = P(A and B’) or P(B and A’) = P(A) x P(B') + P(B) x P(A’) P(A) x [1-P(B)] + P(B) x [1-P(A)] HB) 40-4) 1 =e4+h20 pet bg = 35 735 "35 pols 5.39 ©) P (Nove of they Will be selected) P(A’ and BY) = P(A') 2 PCB") \ 4 4 Heed) = $d = ustration 67 AA product manufactured by a company consists of two parts A and B. In this process of manufacture Of part A, 9 out of 100 are likely to be defective, Similarly 5 out of 100 are likely ioe defective inthe manufacture of part B. Calculate the probability that assembled part will jot be ds Solution Let X: Patt. Ato be defective; X°: art A not to be defective Y: Part B to be defectives y' : Part B not to be defective fe u then POX) = 725s POR’) = 1+ ay = i060 POY) = G5: POY) = 1 aby = 00 P (the assembled part not to be defective) = P (Part A and Part B not to be defective) " POXPOY') = POR) x POY") = hx oh = topo Mlustration 68 A problem in Accountancy is given to 3 students X, Y and Z, where chances of solving it are 4,4 and {What isthe probability that the problem is solved. Solution Let A: Solving the problem by X; A’ : Not solving the problem by X B : Solving the problem by Y; B’: Not solving the problem by Y C: Solving the problem by Z; C’ : Not solving the problem by Z 2 P(A) = Int = Now P(A) 5 PC) = Ie IE he woh 1 3 MB) = + PB) = y= 4 ; ole " P(C) — le. 5.40 Quantitative Techniques foy Business-n Hence P (The problem is solved) = P (Atleast one of them solve it) = 1~ P(A’ and B’ and C’) 1- P(A SB'OC) = 1- PA’) x PB) x PC’) = 1-3. saps he xgele ines ne Mlustration 69 ‘Two persons A and B tries to solve a puzzle independently. The Solve is 3/5 and the probability that B will solve is 1/3, Find the probabi be solved by (i) atleast one of them and ii) both of them. Solution (i) P (Atleast one solves the problem) = 1 - P (None of them solve the problem) = 1- P(A does not solve and B does not solve) 3_2 Probability that A will ility that the puzzle will m= 1-2: a =2 2)}-42uU = Bad (as and 1-$=2) = 1-4 =U Gi) P (Both of them solve) = P(A solves the problem and B solves the problem) six -221 a ee Tlustration 70 A candidate is selected for interview for three posts, For the fist post there are 3 candidates, for the second there are 4 candidates and for the third there are 2 candidates, What are the Chances of his being selected for atleast one post. Solution P (Selecting for the first post) = P (Not selecting for the first post) = P (Selecting for the second post) = P (Not selecting for the second post)= P (Selecting for the third post) = = 1 P (Not selecting for the third post) =1-4 = 1 P (Getting atleast one post) = 1 - P (Not selecting for the first and not selecting for the second and not selecting for the third) probability 5.41 siustration 1 |g Conbins 3 back and 4 whit halls, Two balls are drawn at random at aime witout ePlcement (i) What isthe chance thatthe second ball selected is white? (iD What is ine conetional probity that first ball selected is white ifthe second ball is known 0 be white? solution Total number of balls = 3+ 4 =7 (j) The second ball can be white in the following situations (@) First ball is white, then probability that second ball is white = P (First ball white) x P (Second ball white) 4 = 4x3 (as after the fitst draw there will be only 6 balls ) = # (b) First bal is black, then probability that second ball is white ait ik 7*6 4 = P (First ball black) x P (Second ball white) ‘Now both the cases (a) and (b) are mutually exclusive. Hence the probability that second ball is white will be the sum of the probabilities in these two cases. ie, 2+2= ie, BYR B =F (i) P(A) = P(ANB)/ PB) bility that both Ist and 2nd ball are white Mlustration 72 ‘A class of students is made up of 12 males and 8 females. A committee of 2 students is to be selected by a random process. Each student's name is writen on a slip of paper and placed ina bowl. Two slips of paper are then selected at random. What is the probability that two males will be selected? Solution Here we are interested to select a male atthe first and second pick. The selection of male atthe first pick will affect the probability of selection of a male a the second pick. ie., the events are not independent. ‘Thus we have

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