STU12501-1

Faculty of Engineering, Mathematics and Science

School of Computer Science & Statistics

B.A. (Mod.) Mathematics Semester 1, 2020

B.A. (Mod., Joint Honors) Mathematics

Annual Examination

Introduction to Statistics I

XX–YY January 2021 “Take at Home” 09:00-08:59

Fergal Shevlin, Ph.D.

Instructions to Candidates:

• Answer all six questions. All questions carry equal marks: 20 each out of 120.

• Use two hours as a target for how long you should take in total.

• If you have been granted additional time for written examinations, adjust the
suggested target accordingly.

• Provide original and detailed explanations in support of your answers.

• Maximum answer length should be two pages comprising at most 500 words.

• Email me at [email protected] with any specific queries and I will reply if I can.

• Take pictures of each page and send them to me as attachments to a single

email. Avoid high resolutions or attachment sizes could cause email problems.

• Note that collaboration is not permitted. You must submit a picture of the
enclosed declaration signed by you.

Materials permitted for this examination:

• This is an “open book” exam. Feel free to refer to any appropriate sources of
information you have available, e.g. lecture notes, textbooks, or internet.

• Non-programmable calculators—indicate make and model.

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Question 1. Áine searches her bedroom for her memory stick. She knows she left it on shelf a
with probability pa > 0. The shelves are so messy that even if she looks on shelf
b, the probability that she finds it is only qb . She looks on shelf b and doesn’t
find it. Conditioned on this event, show that the probability of it being on shelf a
is,
pa pb (1 − qb )
if a 6= b and if a = b.
1 − pb qb 1 − pb qb
[20 marks]

Question 2. Trinity’s athletics club will not hold a race unless at least x out of the y
registered runners arrive. Each runner will arrive independently with probability
qr if the weather is rainy and probability qn if the weather is not rainy. Given the
probability of rain on a given day, find an expression for the probability that the
race will be held that day.
[20 marks]

Question 3. On a given day, Elizabeth’s Mario Kart™ lap times in integer seconds are
uniformly distributed over the range 43 to 52 inclusive. She wants to set a good
time to tell her friends so she decides to play on three different days and to
declare her time as the minimum K of the respective times K1 , K2 , and K3 .

(i) Calculate the PMF of K . (ii) By how much has her expected time improved
as a result of her strategy?
[20 marks]

© Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin 2020.

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Question 4. Dylan goes for a walk in the park 3 days a week for 48 weeks. On a given day he
meets a friend with probability q = 0.05, independent of the other days. Let Z
be an r.v. for the number of times he meets a friend during the 48 week period.

(i) What is the probability that the number of meetings is exactly equal to the
expected value of Z ?

(ii) His friends can talk to him for 5, 10, or 15 minutes with probabilities 0.4,
0.5, and 0.1 respectively. What is the mean and variance of the amount of time
they spend talking during the year?
[20 marks]

Question 5. Rosie throws darts at a circular target of radius u and is equally likely to hit any
point in the target. Let H be an r.v. for the distance of the hit from the centre.

(i) Find the PDF, mean, and variance of H.

(ii) The target has an inner circle of radius v . If H ≤ v , she gets a score of
R = 1/H. Otherwise her score is R = 0. Find the CDF of R. Is R a continuous
random variable?
[20 marks]

Question 6. You take a piece of spaghetti of length s. You break it at a point chosen
according to a uniform probability distribution and keep the piece that contains
the left hand end. Its length is r.v. X . You repeat the process on the piece that
you kept and the resulting length is r.v. Y .

(i) Find the joint PDF of X and Y .

(ii) Find the marginal PDF of Y .

(iii) Use the PDF of Y to evaluate E[Y ].

(iv) Evaluate E[Y ] using the relation Y = X · (Y /X ).

[20 marks]

© Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin 2020.

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