Scribd
Upload
9 views

Assignment #1

ddd

Uploaded by

김채원
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
9 views

Assignment #1

ddd

Uploaded by

김채원
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 5

건설환경데이터분석및실습

Data Analytics for Civil & Environmental Engineers (2024)

Assignment #1

Due: APR. 22

Question 1

A chemical plant produces a variety of products using four different processes, but the
available capacity of manpower is only sufficient to run one process at a time. The plant
manager knows that the discharge of dangerous pollutions into the plant’s waste water
system and then into nearby streams, is dependent on which process is in operation.
The probability that a particular process will produce dangerous pollutions is:

process A 40%
process B 5%
process C 30%
process D 10%

In a given month the relative likelihood of processes A, B, C, and D operating is 2:4:3:1.

(a) What is the probability that there will be no dangerous pollution produced (and then
discharged) in a given month?

(b) If dangerous pollution is detected in the plant discharge, what is the probability
that process A was operating?

(c) The pollution products from the various processes above have the following
different probabilities of killing fishes in the streams they discharged:

Process Probability of fish kill


A 0.9
B 0.1
C 0.8
D 0.3

Based on these assumptions what is the probability that fish will be killed by pollution
in the stream in a given month?

(d) Of the four processes, which is the most fruitful one (in terms of minimizing the
likelihood of fish kill) to select for clean-up if only one can be improved?

1
건설환경데이터분석및실습

Question 2

"Liquefaction of sand" denotes a phenomenon in foundation engineering of which a


mass of saturated sand suddenly loses its bearing capacity because of rapid changes in
loading conditions, for example, resulting from earthquake vibrations. When this
happens, disastrous effects on the structures may follow. For simplicity, let’s rate the
earthquake intensities into low (L), medium (M), and high (H). The likelihoods of
liquefaction associated with the earthquakes of these intensities are 0.05, 0.20, and 0.90,
respectively.

Assume that the relative frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes L, M, and H are 1,


0.1, and 0.01 per year, respectively. [Hint: Let, F = Liquefaction of Sand during an
earthquake.]

(a) What is the probability that the next earthquake is of low intensity (L)?

(b) What is the probability of liquefaction of sand at the site during the next earthquake?

(c) What is the probability that the sand will survive for the next three earthquakes (that
is, no liquefaction)? Assume the conditions between earthquakes are statistically
independent.

2
건설환경데이터분석및실습

Question 3

A system of storm sewers is proposed for a city. In order to evaluate the effectiveness
of the sewer system in preventing flooding of the streets, the following information has
been gathered. The left figure shows the probability mass function for the number of
occurrences of rainstorm each year in the city. The right figure shows the distribution
of the maximum runoff rate in each storm, which is log-normal with a median of 7 cfs
(cubic feet/sec) and COV of 15%. From hydraulic analysis, the proposed sewer system
is shown to be adequate for any storm with runoff rate less than 8 cfs. Assume that the
maximum runoff rates between storms are statistically independent.

PN(n) fR(r)

Log Normal Median =7


c.o.v = 15%
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

0 1 2 3 n 0 r

No. of Rainstorms in a year Maximum Runoff Rate, cfs

(a) What is the mean and variance of the number of rain storms in a year for the city?

(b)What is the probability of flooding during a rainstorm?

(c) What is the probability of flooding in a year?

3
건설환경데이터분석및실습

Question 4

The cost for the facilities to release and refill water for a navigation lock in a canal
increases with decreasing time required for each cycle of operation. For purposes of
design, it has been observed that the time of arrival of boats follows an exponential
distribution with a mean inter-arrival time of 0.5 hr. Assume that the navigation lock is
to be designed so that 80% of the incoming traffic can pass through the lock without
waiting.

(a) What should be the design time of each cycle of operation?

(b) What is the probability that of 4 successive arrivals, none of them have to wait at
the lock?

(c) Suppose that one boat leaves town A every 8 hr, and has to go through the lock to
reach its destination. What is the probability that at least 1 of the boats leaving town A
in a 24-hr day has to wait at the lock?

4
건설환경데이터분석및실습

Question 5

A concrete column is subjected to an axial load W that is a log-normal random ariable


with mean = 3000 kN and C.O.V = 0.2. The mean crushing strength (i.e. resistance) of
the concrete, R is 35,000 kN/m2 with C.O.V = 0.2. Assume uniform compressive stress
over the crosssectional area of the column, so that the applied stress is

S = W/A

where A = cross-sectional area of column.

(a) What is the distribution of the applied stress?

(b) Determine the probability of crushing of a 0.4 m x 0.4 m column. Assume a


convenient probability distribution for R.

You might also like