Elective: Power System Reliability

BEL/IV/I

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RELIABILITY
is the probability of a device or system
performing its purpose adequately
for the period of time intended
under the operating conditions encountered.

• probability – quantitative measure / qualitative

• adequate performance – acceptable / unacceptable

• time – mission aspect (mission oriented, continuous)

• operating condition – stress levels, related to failure rate

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Qualitative
• engineering judgment based on experience

Quantitative
• necessary for comparative (economic) analysis

Purpose of QuantitativeAssessment
- past performance assessment
• can compare the results before and after the improvements made

- future performance prediction

• to analyze the expected behavior of the system in future evaluation of different
alternatives for improvements
• for making economic decision
• probable impact assessment
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• Reliability assessment is a multi-disciplinary subject.
• There is no two systems that exactly matches, thus reliability evaluation and the
techniques varies greatly.
• Depends on the features of the system
• Two main categories are:
• Mission Oriented
• Continuously operated system

Mission Oriented Continuously Operated

must continue to function system transits between up and
without failure down states (failure – repair)

Repairable Non-repairable
Failed components within the Repair not possible
system repaired or replaced during the mission
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Mission Oriented
• System that must continue to function without failure for the duration of mission.
• Two subcategories:
• system in which operating phase started from the point in time when system is
checked and therefore known to be in an operable state e.g. Commercial airplane
• Those system in which idle phase follow the point when system is checked and
known to be in an operable state. e.g. circuit breaker.

Continuously Operated System

• In which number of system down states are tolerable provided they do not happen
too frequently. e.g. Electric Distribution System

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 Mission Oriented with no
idle phase

Mission Oriented
with idle phase

Continuously Operated System

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• Reliability – probability of a system staying in the operating state without
failure (mission oriented systems)

• Availability – probability of finding a system in the operating state at

some time into the future (continuously operated systems).

• Failure – The termination of ability of an item to perform a required

function.

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Maintainability:

The ability of an item, under stated conditions of use,

• to be retained in (inertial application)
• or restored to (recloser)
a state in which it can perform its required function(s),
when maintenance is performed under stated conditions and
using prescribed procedures and resources.

Expressed as Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)  comes under Reliability Study

Reparability:
- Time dependent (short-term, operating state reliability)
- Limited state (long-term, planning & design state reliability)

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• The design might be inherently incapable,
• the more complex the design ,more the difficult to overcome the problem
• The item might be overstressed in some way
• Failures can be caused by wear out.
• Sufficiently strong at the start of the life and become weaker with age
• Exposure to unfavorable weather condition
• Failures can be caused by other time dependent mechanism
• such as battery run down
• creep in turbine caused simultaneously by high temperature and tensile stress
• Cascading effect  fault transfer from the other fault section in the system.
• Failures can be caused by sneaks .
• Sneak is the condition in which the system does not work properly even though every part does.
• Failures can be caused by errors such as
• incorrect specification,
• Incorrect design ,
• fault assembly or test.
• There are many other potential causes to failure such as oil leaks noisy, display flickering etc.

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• Identifying the potential causes of failures

• Finding Reliability involves finding the risk factor, finding the impacts of one on
another.

• Focuses on eliminating maintenance requirements

• Achieve reliability and maintenance task improvements
• MTTR, MTTF reduction
• Improves the uptime and productive capacity of critical equipment using formalized
problem-solving techniques

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• Maintenance Prevention
• Optimizes equipment life-cycle costs by using life-cycle costing (LCC) analysis
• Reduces the cost of any product or service
• Employs proactive techniques to extend machinery life:
• Failed part analysis (FPA)
• Root-Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA)
• Adapts Total Productive Maintenance (TPM), Reliability Centered Maintenance
(RCM) and other concepts to the operating environment
• Formulates and suggest the specifications of new/rebuilt equipment
• Develops plans and analysis of capital equipment (and other assets) replacement
• Involvement in the economic evaluation/justification of investments in M&R
• Is it worth maintaining or repairing? Or is it worth replacement?

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• Planning
• Design (Design for Reliability, DFR)
• Operation
• Maintenance (Reliability Centered Maintenance, RCM)
• System upgrade/ Reinforcement
• Marketing

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- understand how the system operates

- identify the ways in which it can fail

- deduce consequences of failure

- derive models to represent these characteristics

- only then select the reliability evaluation technique

Analytical: mathematical model

Simulation: series of real experiments

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• quality of components
• Redundancy
• diversity in redundancy
• Spares
• preventing maintenance
• efficient repair

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 Data collection and Reliability Evaluation
must evolve together

Collected data directly reflect the state of the product/ system/ service
Normally real - time based data

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From lab, From field
prototype
designing

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 Regulatory reliability standards
Product/system warranty
Market competition (attract/retain customers)
Product liability
Company reputation
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 Question:
What is the system reliability benefit for the next dollar invested?
This requires a quantitative evaluation of system reliability.

“Is it worth it?”

“Where or on what should the next
dollar be invested in the system to
achieve the maximum reliability
benefit?”.

A given increase in investment produces a

decreasing increment in reliability as the
reliability is increased

incremental cost C to achieve a given

increase in reliability R increases as the
reliability level increases.

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 Optimum
value

• investmentcostgenerallyincreases
withhigherreliability.

• customercostsassociatedwithfailures
decreaseasthereliabilityincreases.

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1. Probability concepts, permutation and combination, practical
engineering concepts, Venn diagrams

2. Rules for combining probabilities, independent, mutually exclusive,

complimentary, conditional events, application of conditional
probability

3. Probability distributions: random variables, density functions,

mathematical expectation, variance and standard deviation.

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Measure of occurrence

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What is the probability of not getting a 4
from a single throw of a dice?

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 Set Theory & Basic Probability

Cardinality of subset
Cardinality of universal set

• A set is a collection of objects/ events

 collection of possible outcomes, collection of desired outcomes

• A universal set is a collection of all objects/ events (sample space)

 collection of possible outcomes

• A subset is derived from the elements of universal set (events)

 collection of possible success, collection of possible failures, ………

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Counting comes in picture
Permutation & Combination

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Combination Example

n= 7 ; r= 3

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 Set Theory & Basic Probability
Venn Diagram Representation of set theory

U or S E

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 VENN DIAGRAMS

Note: A B
  and
multiply

U  or S
add C

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A B A ∩B ∩C

S
C
In A and B and C
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A B A ∩B
(S-A) Ⴖ B

Deal inside
bracket first

S
C
(In S not in A) and in B
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A B (A ∩B) ∪C

(A Ⴖ (S-B)) U C
Deal inside
bracket first
S C

((In S not in B) and in A) or in C 34

A B A ∩(B ∪C)

A Ⴖ ((S-B) U C)
Deal inside
bracket first
S C

((In S not in B) or in C) and in A 35

 THREE IMPORTANT RULES

Complement: P(A ) = 1 - P(A)

P(S)  1

Intersection P(AB) = P(A).P(B) If

A and B are independent events.
(More on independence later)

Union: P(AB ) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

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Result:

Complement: P(A ) = 1 - P(A)

A
S P(A)=p

P(S)=1
A P(A)=1-P(A)

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Result:

Union: P(AB ) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

A B

P(A) P(B)
S

Notice that when we add the probabilities, this region, is added in twice - once
from A and once from B

So we subtract P (A B) to correct the double overlap

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If P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.6 and P(A  B) = 0.9,
determine P(A  B)

Strategy: Find the probability of each of the disjoint

areas in the Venn Diagram

P(AB ) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

A B
0.9 = 0.7 + 0.6 - P(A B)
S 0.3 0.4 0.2
0.1 P(A B) = 0.4

P(A  B) = (In S not in A) or in B = 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.3

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Example

A cup coffee which is supposed to contain milk and sugar

obtained from the coffee dispensing machine in an engineering
school cafeteria is likely to have a number of different short-
comings. They are represented as the events:
A - coffee burnt,
B - no
sugar,
Calculate the probability that the coffee:
C - no AB  C
(1)milk.
is burnt but has sugar and milk,
(2)It isisnot burnt
known andP(A)
that: either=has no sugar
0.7, P(B)or=has
0.4 and P(A  AB) =0.2,
milk.  C =)
(B P(C)
0.3
P(A  C) = 0.2, P(B  C) = 0.2 , P(AB C) = 0.1
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P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A  B) = 0.2, P(C) = 0.3
P(A  C) = 0.2, P(B  C) = 0.2 , P(AB C) = 0.1

A Good Strategy: Work out from the centre

A B
0.1
0.4 0.1

0.1
0.1 0.1

0.0
0.1
C
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PROBLEM
(1) What corresponds to: is burnt but has sugar and milk,

Translate: Burnt and Sugar and Milk A - coffee burnt, B

- no sugar,
AB  C C - no milk.

A B
(In S not in B) and (in S
not in C) and (in A) 0.40.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
Answer = 0.4 0.1 0.1

0.0
0.1 C

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PROBLEM 2: What corresponds to: is not burnt and either has no sugar
or has milk

Translate: Not Burnt and (No Sugar or Milk) A - coffee burnt, B

- no sugar,
C - no milk.
A   (B  C )

A B
(In S not in C) or (in B) 0.1
0.4 0.1
and (in S not in A)
0.1
0.1 0.1
Answer = 0.2
0.0
0.1 C
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 Basic Probability
A probability is a number assigned to an event representing the chance or
likelihood that the event occurs when the random experiment is performed.

The probability of an event A is denoted P(A).

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Probability Definitions

MK, TU 46
1. Mutually Exclusive Events

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2. Complimentary Events

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3. Conditional Events

Individually:

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Bayes’ Theorem (Bayes’ rule)

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Reminder:

Classwork
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Simultaneous Occurrence of Events
(Intersection)

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Simultaneous Occurrence of Events

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Simultaneous Occurrence of Events

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Occurrence of at Least one of two events (Union)

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Occurrence of at Least one of two events (Union)

=0 Disjoint

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Occurrence of at Least one of two events (Union)

Example: What is the probability of failing to meet the

repeater station load?

Wind power output

P (F) = P(50) + P(0) = 0.3 + 0.4 = 0.7

MK, TU 60
Occurrence of at Least one of two events (Union)

Not disjoint

MK, TU 61
Occurrence of at Least one of two events (Union)

Example:
What is the probability of start failure?

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Occurrence of at Least one of two events (Union)

means Dependent

Revision

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Occurrence of at Least one of two events (Union)

One card is drawn from a standard pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be the
Example: event that it is a red card and B be the event that it is a court or face card.
What is the probability that the drawn card is red or face or both?
Summary of Probability Laws & Expression

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Summary of Probability Laws & Expression

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 Random Variable

• Random experiments are performed to obtain the data/ information to process

them for further study of the reliability & unreliability of the components/
system.

• The outcome of such random experiments are random variables.

• A particular random variable might have different data/ information at

different times, under different scenario.

• A random variable could be (based on countability) ;

• Discrete
• Continuous

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 Random variables
Random variables are classified as:
• Discrete
• In a discrete distribution, the random variable can take on a distinct or
countable number of possible values such as number of demands to failure.
• The number of heads in four flips of a coin (a numerical property of each
different sequence of flips).
• Heights of individuals in a large population

• Continuous
• In a continuous distribution the random variable is not constrained to
distinct possible values such as time-to-failure distribution.
• Heights of individuals in a group
• Time to finish a test
• Hours spent exercising last week.

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Data Collection & Data Processing of a random
experiment

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 Probability Density/ Distribution Functions

The probabilities associated with the random variables can be described by a formula called
Probability Density Function (C. V.) or Probability Mass Function (D. V.).
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Probability Density/ Distribution Functions

Probability Mass Function Probability Density Function

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 Probability Density/ Distribution Functions
A probability density function (pdf),
denoted as f(t) is any function which is
always positive and has a unit area.

The probability of an event occurring

between limits a and b is the area under
the pdf between those points.

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 Cumulative Density Functions
The cumulative density function (cdf), denoted by F(t) is the probability of the
random event occurring before t, P(T<=t). For a discrete cdf the height of each step is
the pdf value f(ki)

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Example :

A fair 6-sided die is tossed. You win $2 if the result is a “1”, you win $1 if
the result is a “6” but otherwise you lose $1.

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The distribution (discrete) of the power output from a wind farm is given in the
table below. What is the expected power output? What is the standard deviation
about the mean value?

Classwork ?

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