Cyber-Attacks and The Right of Self-Defense A Case Study of The Netherlands
Cyber-Attacks and The Right of Self-Defense A Case Study of The Netherlands
To cite this article: Ferry Oorsprong, Paul Ducheine & Peter Pijpers (2023) Cyber-attacks and
the right of self-defense: a case study of the Netherlands, Policy Design and Practice, 6:2,
217-239, DOI: 10.1080/25741292.2023.2179955
1. Introduction
“Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective
self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the
Security Council has taken the measures necessary to maintain international peace and
security.” 1
Whilst Article 51 of the UN Charter indicates that an “armed attack” may trigger a
State’s inherent right of individual or collective self-defense, the purport of armed attack
remains a matter of both interpretation and qualification.2 Prior to 9/11, the traditional
interpretation of an armed attack—as referred to in Article 51—relied on the trans-
national use of military force by State actors on a “relatively large” scale with
“substantial” effect (Gill 2015; Gill and Ducheine 2013; Randelzhofer 1994). Since 9/11,
however, a more modern interpretation arose, accepting the fact that also unorthodox
uses of force by non-State actors could qualify as such (Gill and Tibori-Szab o 2019).
Fourteen years later, this interpretation was expressed again when France invoked the
mutual defense clause of Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union—based on
Article 51 of the UN Charter—after the Bataclan terrorist attacks in Paris (Boddens
Hosang and Ducheine 2020). In the same vein, actions carried out in cyberspace have
caused the impetus for further debate regarding whether and when digital attacks (or
incursions)—conducted solely in (or through) cyberspace and not in conjunction with
conventional uses of force and attacks—can qualify as an armed attack (Boothby et al.
2012). Although scholars (Schmitt 2017), international organizations (UN GGE 2015
Report 2015), coalitions (UN General Assembly 2021), and even States (the Netherlands
included) (Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2019) have (to some extent) expressed legal opin-
ions in this respect, unfortunately, the debate has yet to reach a conclusion.
To improve the notion of self-defense and contribute to the jus ad bellum (inter-
national law on the use of transnational force), more clarification as to what consti-
tutes an armed attack in cyberspace is necessary. It is, however, rather unlikely that
additional binding legal norms will be drafted regarding this topic (Schmitt 2020).
Therefore, non-binding norms or guidance—regarding when cyber-attacks reach the
threshold of an armed attack—could be conducive to guide State behavior.3 While
rules are legally binding to all States (when part of customary international law) or to
those States that are part of a specific treaty, their application can face ambiguity.
Norms, on the other hand, are indicia providing additional points of reference for
interpreting and applying existing legislation. Besides the fact that such norms would
serve as the start of a form of (international) law making (Macak 2017), in which, pri-
marily, States incrementally reach an agreement regarding the armed attack-threshold
in cyberspace and its impact on self-defense, the results would be 2-fold: one of par-
ticular relevance for the author of the attack, and another for the addressee, i.e. the
victim of the attack. First, the armed attack-threshold, when applied in cyberspace,
could be used in the political decision-making processes for States considering initiat-
ing a cyber-attack. It may be expected that States—the authors of cyber-attacks—will
(a) try to abide by the jus ad bellum, (b) pay respect to the prohibition of the use of
force as referred to in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, and (c) be aware of the conse-
quences if cyber-attacks of a certain scale and effect qualify as an armed attack in terms
of Article 51 of the UN Charter. This relates to the second result: clarity on the param-
eters regarding the armed attack-threshold in cyberspace would help victim States in
their decision-making processes in response to cyber-attacks with a grave impact. If
the armed attack-threshold would indeed be reached, it then offers the victim State a
legal base in international law for the use of transnational force—i.e. self-defense—in
response to that attack (Gill 2015).
POLICY DESIGN AND PRACTICE 219
The main aim of this paper is to propose a tangible guideline that outlines when
cyber-attacks—conducted solely in (or through) cyberspace and not in conjunction
with conventional military attacks—qualify as an armed attack. The center of attention
will be cyber-attacks directed against civilian (i.e. nonmilitary) targets. In order to do
so, section 2 will contain a brief appreciation of the traditional interpretation of an
armed attack, with a focus on explaining why judging the scale and effect is crucial for
its identification. Section 3 is a survey of positions of States (opinio juris) and leading
academic opinions regarding the application of international law in cyberspace, specif-
ically aimed at the qualification of cyber-attacks as armed attacks. This survey con-
firms the applicability of international law in cyberspace and provides some specific
examples of potential armed attacks in cyberspace. Section 4 is key to this contribu-
tion, as it transfers the legal debate into tangible options by applying policy documents
from other States and disciplines. To enable that cross-fertilization, this section first
analyses which type(s) of cyber-attacks is/are eligible to qualify as an armed attack, fol-
lowed by the analysis of international and interdisciplinary polities in search of tan-
gible indicators for the armed attack-threshold that can be used in cyberspace. This
process, based on desk research, results in eleven cyber-attack scenarios that could
(theoretically) qualify as an armed attack.4 These scenarios (as summarized in
Appendix A) were used to conduct structured interviews to collect verbal statements
from leading cyber experts from the Netherlands’ ministries of (a) Foreign Affairs, (b)
Defense, and (c) Justice and Security regarding when these theoretically identified
potential armed attacks in cyberspace would actually reach the armed attack-threshold
in practice and, therewith, trigger the Netherlands’ right of self-defense. The choice
was made to interview two legal experts (focussing on the legal eligibility), two policy
experts (focussing on the strategic credibility) and one operational expert (focussing
on the technical feasibility). During five interviews in total, the experts were asked (as
if they were advising their minister) to judge whether and how each cyber-attack scen-
ario could reach the necessary (scale and effect) threshold for triggering the
Netherlands’ right of self-defense. Section 5, eventually, presents the results of the field
research and suggests a policy framework regarding the scale and effect of armed
attacks in cyberspace that can serve as a baseline for international norms or guidance
regarding the armed attack-threshold. This policy framework distinguishes three separ-
ate cyber-attack categories, each with their own tangible levels to determine if and
when they qualify as an armed attack. For now, these levels are tailored for the
Netherlands in absolute numbers, but when transferred to percentages of the gross
national/domestic product and the population size, they could perhaps be suitable for
other States as well. The paper will end with some concluding reflections.
2. Armed attack and the lacking ability to judge scale and effect
Self-defense in response to an armed attack, as referred to in i.a. Article 51 of the UN
Charter, is one of the legal exceptions to the prohibition of the transboundary use of
force, as laid down in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.5 Since the prohibition of the use
of force has the status of peremptory norm or jus cogens,6 it might be surprising that
the UN Charter lacks a definition of both “use of force” and “armed attack” (Dinnis
220 F. OORSPRONG ET AL.
2012, 77; Kerschischnig 2012, 111). Therefore, in practice, the armed attack-standard
requires an interpretation based on the case at hand, resulting in the fact that expert
opinions—regarding the purport of armed attack—have differed to this day (Ruys
2010, 1).
Starting with the term force, the UN Charter uses “force” with and without the
adjective “armed.” The assumption in this paper is that when the UN Charter uses
“force,” it encapsulates “armed force.” This was epitomized by the rejection of a
Brazilian amendment to also prohibit “the threat or use of economic measures” during
the travaux preparatoires at the San Francisco Conference in 1945 (UNIO 1945, 609;
Roscini 2014, 45–46).7 This rejection implies that the drafters of the UN Charter did
not intend to expand the interpretation of force beyond armed force (Roscini 2014,
45). With regard to the scope of use of force, which does not coincide with the scope
of armed attack (Randelzhofer 1994, 663), not every use of force equals an armed
attack.8 This understanding is reflected in the Nicaragua Case in which the
International Court of Justice (ICJ) mentioned that “armed attacks form a subset of
the term force in Article 2(4)” (Dinnis 2012, 77). In the same Nicaragua Case, the ICJ
provided another indication of how the term armed attack should be understood by
asserting the necessity “to distinguish the most grave forms of the use of force (those
constituting an armed attack) from other less grave forms” (Ruys 2010, 140; ICJ 1986,
para 191, 101). This necessity corresponds with academic opinions implying that an
armed attack only exists in case of a “reasonably significant” use of force on a relatively
large scale with substantial effect (Randelzhofer 1994, 669; Gill 2015, 216). Paragraph
195 of the Nicaragua Case, in which the ICJ stated that “the difference between armed
attacks and less grave forms of the use of force is primarily one of scale and effects,”
substantiates this approach (Ruys 2010, 140). However, the crucial and remaining
question to be answered is when the scale and effect of the use of force are considered
relatively large and substantial, and how this should be clarified and assessed.
According to Yoram Dinstein “a use of force not involving loss of life or signifi-
cant destruction of property falls short of an armed attack” (Dinstein 2013, 279). This
could imply that “loss of life” and “significant destruction of property” are criteria for
an armed attack. On the other hand, Tom Ruys argues that customary practice sug-
gests that even small-scale operations can qualify as an armed attack if it concerns
“bombings, artillery, naval or aerial attacks” resulting in, or capable of resulting in
“destruction of property or loss of lives” (Ruys 2010, 155). Still, for operations with-
out these specific (kinetic) characteristics, appraising the scale and effect as relatively
large and substantial would remain necessary in order for the use of force to be
“reasonably significant” and qualify as an armed attack.
Overall, this implies that judging the scale and effect is crucial for identifying an
armed attack. However, to this day, no tangible criteria have been defined for that
purpose in international law (i.e. the jus ad bellum).
can qualify as an armed attack, other sources can provide additional guidance.
Therefore, this section will first elaborate on leading academic opinions, followed by
the positions expressed by States.9
Other cases are even less clear, especially if cyber operations do not directly result
in injury, death, damage or destruction (Schmitt 2012, 288; Schmitt 2017, 342, Rule
71, para. 12). The classic scenario in this non-kinetic context is a cyber operation
against “a major international stock exchange that causes the market to crash”
(Schmitt 2017, 343, Rule 71, para. 12). The IGE reached no consensus in this case,
but—in the absence of a “conclusive definitional threshold”—States should be “highly
sensitive to the international community’s probable assessment” when judging the
scale and effect of cyber operations (Schmitt 2017, 333, Rule 69, para. 8).10 The posi-
tions of States, addressed in the next paragraph, will help estimating this
“international community’s probable assessment” (Schmitt 2017, 333, Rule 69,
para. 8).
(Schmitt 2019a). That would be the case if an operation in cyberspace “caused a fail-
ure of critical infrastructure with significant consequences or consequences liable to
paralyze whole swathes of the country’s activity, trigger technological or ecological
disasters and claim numerous victims” (Ministere des Armees 2019, 8). Estonia con-
siders a cyber operation “which for example, targets digital infrastructure or services
necessary for the functioning of society” eligible for qualification. Moreover, Estonia
believes that “growing digitalization of our societies and services can also lower the
threshold for harmful effects” (Sits 2019).
The Netherlands’ legal opinion explicitly articulates that the qualification of a
cyber-attack as an armed attack “depends on the scale and effects of the incident in
question” (Minister of Foreign Affairs 2019, 8–9). It also articulates that a cyber-
attack must have a cross-border character to be able to qualify as an armed attack
(Parliamentary Papers II 2019–2020, 33 694, nr 47 2019). Moreover, a cyber-attack
“that has comparable consequences to an armed attack (fatalities, damage and
destruction) can justify a response with cyber weapons or conventional weapons
( … )” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2019). The Government of the Netherlands, there-
fore, endorses the finding of the CAVV and the AIV Advisory Report on Cyber
Warfare. The report stated that “a serious, organized cyber-attack on essential func-
tions of the state could conceivably be qualified as an armed attack within the pur-
pose and intent of Article 51 of the UN Charter if it could or did lead to serious
disruption of the functioning of the state or serious and long-lasting consequences
for the stability of the state” (AIV/CAVV 2011, 21).
Inspired by examples from the same report, which also explicitly included “an
attack on the entire military communication and command network that makes it
impossible to deploy the armed forces” (AIV/CAVV 2011, 21), the (then)
Netherlands’ minister of Defense suggested in her keynote address, marking the first
anniversary of the Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the 20th of June 2018, that “if a cyber-
attack targets the entire Dutch financial system, or if it prevents the government from
carrying out essential tasks such as policing or taxation … it would qualify as an
armed attack and thus trigger a state’s right to defend itself, even by force” (Bijleveld
2018, 45). Although there is no international consensus regarding cyber-attacks with
a relatively large scale and substantial effect that do not cause fatalities, physical dam-
age or destruction (Parliamentary Papers II 2019–2020, 33 694, nr 57 2019), this view
was echoed by Michael Schmitt when he analyzed these Netherlands’ statements
(Schmitt 2019b).
more granularity than academics or (representatives of) States have (openly) done so
far, as to when these eligible cyber-attacks could reach the threshold of an armed
attack.
After conducting the interviews, it also became clear that disruption, degradation
or destruction of essential medical services—specifically mentioned by the UK as a
potential armed attack—is another example of this first category. Theoretically, it was
excluded, because it is not (yet) a Netherlands’ vital process, but since attacking essen-
tial medical services leads directly to physical damage, 1 or more persons dead would
suffice to qualify as an armed attack.
The purest criterion—according to the leading Dutch cyber experts—for this cat-
egory to trigger the Netherlands’ right of self-defense, is achieving “societal dis-
ruption.” Unfortunately, like “armed attack,” “societal disruption”—combined with
“serious societal survivability problems” for a number of people—lacks a clear defin-
ition. Although the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR)
states that “digital societal disruption” occurs “when normal life is seriously and
adversely affected” (The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy 2019,
7), it also recognizes the absence of a tangible threshold and how difficult it is to
overcome this lacuna (Wetenschappelijk Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid 2019, 25).
The WRR hints toward “key societal systems and institutions being visibly impacted,”
and “citizens losing confidence in the institutions of government, the market econ-
omy and the society in which they live” (The Netherlands Scientific Council for
Government Policy 2019, 6–7), but further clarification would need additional
research.
Nevertheless, the leading Dutch cyber experts—particularly the two legal experts—
generally accepted the upper limits of the suggested bandwidths for societal and eco-
nomic damage as a guideline for the (absolute) minimum threshold.20 This would
imply the suggestion that cyber-attacks launched against Category III targets trigger
the Netherlands’ right of self-defense if it leads to one or more of the following
effects: (a) a societal damage of at least 1,000,000 people with serious societal surviv-
ability problems, and/or (b) an economic damage of at least 50,000,000,000 euros
(with the remark that using only economic damage as a qualifier is difficult, due to
the reluctant official position of the Netherlands’ government).21
To conclude this section, Figure 1 provides a schematic overview of the synthesis
resulting in contributing criteria that could trigger the Netherlands’ right of self-
defense for three cyber armed attack-categories.
6. Concluding reflections
By interpreting the legal guidance for armed attacks in cyberspace, and cross-fertiliz-
ing it with international and interdisciplinary policy documents, including the opin-
ion of leading Dutch cyber experts, this paper has offered further granularity in the
discourse on scale and effect regarding cyber-attacks that might qualify as an armed
attack in the meaning of Article 51 of the UN Charter, triggering the right of self-
defense in international relations. This granularity could enable us to take away some
of the legal “uncertainty” (Schmitt 2017, 346, Rule 72, para 20) articulated in the
Tallinn Manual 2.0.
The result of the conducted synthesis is a policy framework with a categorization
that will provide more clarity for (a) the author of a cyber-attack with regard to
when the armed attack-threshold is reached in cyberspace and (b) when a victim
State can respond in self-defense to cyber-attacks with a grave impact. However, three
aspects need to be addressed to ensure the proper interpretation and implementation
of the suggested policy framework.
First, as already mentioned, it must be clear that the suggested levels for each cat-
egory originate from the (minimum) expected effects in case of disruption,
230 F. OORSPRONG ET AL.
Air traffic control (leading to air disasters) (c) an economic damage of at least 5,000,000,000 euros
Heads of State (leading to their assassination)
Essential medical services (leading to dying patients)
Production, distribution and transport of electricity, (a) an indirect physical damage of more than 1,000 people dead, seriously
gas and oil (leading to the unavailability of electricity - comparable to
injured or chronically sick
or other forms of energy) kinetic attacks
Figure 1. Policy framework regarding when cyber-attacks qualify as an armed attack, triggering
the Netherlands’ right of self-defense.
Notes
1. Article 51 UN Charter (San Francisco, 1945).
2. See e.g. Switzerland’s position paper on the application of international law in
cyberspace—Annex to the UN GGE 2019/2021, 4. The Swiss legal opinion underlines
that there are no binding quantitative or qualitative guidelines as to when the threshold
of an armed attack in terms of scale and effect has been reached.
3. See the United Nations Office of Disarmament Affairs on Group of Governmental
Experts on Advancing responsible State behaviour in cyberspace in the context of
international security. https://www.un.org/disarmament/group-of-governmental-experts/.
4. Caveat: the scenario regarding cyber-attacks conducted against military capacity (making
it impossible to deploy the armed forces) was theoretically identified as a potential armed
attack during the desk research but excluded from the field research due to the specific
focus on civilian (i.e. non-military) targets.
5. That is, intervention on invitation, authorisation based on Chapter VII of the UN
Charter, self-defense. See for example, Lowe (2007, 103).
6. Case Concerning Military and Paramilitary Activities in and against Nicaragua, ICJ
Reports (1986), para 190, 100. A peremptory norm of international law (jus cogens) is a
norm from which no derogation is permitted and which can be modified only by a norm
of international law having the same character.
7. The Brazilian proposal to include “mesure d’ordre economique.”
8. Although most States recognize the gap between both articles, one does not: the US. Its
position is that any “use of force” triggers the right of self-defense, even though the rest
of the world focusses on Article 51 of the UN Charter which talks about “armed attack”
(University of Virginia School of Law 2017; Schmitt 2013a, 689; Schmitt 2013b, 332–333,
Rule 69, para. 7).
9. Regarding the sources of law, according to Article 38(1) of the Statute of the ICJ,
customary law takes precedence over the opinions of leading academics. However, the
customary international law is far from solidified in this matter: state practice is lacking
and the legal opinions of only a few States are available. Since the opinions of leading
academics were developed first and potentially influenced the positions of States, these
will be dealt with first.
10. Although this guidance was articulated for determining if cyber operations violate the
prohibition of the use of force, in this paper, it is also considered important in relation
to an armed attack, since armed attack is depicted to have a higher threshold than the
use of force-standard (Schmitt 2015, 1115).
11. While numerous states have provided legal opinion on the application of international
law to cyberspace, most express their position in generic terms. See Schmitt (2019). The
position of the US will not be addressed since it holds the view that the threshold for the
use of force and armed attack are identical, see Schmitt (2020), Schmitt (2013a, 689), and
Schmitt (2017, 332–333, Rule 69, para. 7).
12. Cyber Espionage is the non-consensual collection of confidential information. Whilst
cyber espionage can be executed in peacetime or during armed conflict, it does not reach
the threshold of the use of force. See also Buchan and Navarrete (2021, 232–235).
13. Whyte and Mazanec identify 4 types of attacks. Supporting kinetic attacks is the fourth
category which is excluded from this analysis. See also National Coordinator for Security
and Counterterrorism (2019).
232 F. OORSPRONG ET AL.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
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Appendix A
Cyber-attack scenarios for which The Netherlands’ armed attack-threshold
could lie somewhere in the defined bandwidths
Appendix A presents a visualization of the theoretical analysis resulting in an overview of the
cyber-attack scenarios for which the Netherlands’ armed attack-threshold could lie somewhere
within the defined bandwidths, and additionally includes the heads of State criterium of the
IGE. This overview, based on desk research, was used as a baseline to conduct structured
interviews to collect verbal statements from leading cyber experts (as if they were advising
their minister) from the Netherlands’ ministries of (a) Foreign Affairs, (b) Defense, and (c)
Justice and Security regarding when these theoretically identified potential armed attacks in
cyberspace would actually reach the armed attack-threshold in practice and, therewith, trigger
the Netherlands’ right of self-defense.
Cyber espionage
Manipulation of the
information environment
Disruption, degradation or destruction
of ‘core security assets’
Production, storage and processing of
Cat A (and British political
nuclear material (leading to a nuclear
support) Suggestion in this paper based on desk research:
disaster)
Production, distribution and transport of
The threshold for these cyber-attack scenarios to be grave
electricity, gas and oil (leading to the
Cat A enough in scale and effect to qualify as an armed attack,
unavailability of electricity or other forms
and trigger the Netherlands’ right of self-defence, could
of energy)
lie somewhere between the ‘expected damage levels’ –
Water barriers (leading to catastrophic defined by the Ministry of Justice and Security – for
Cat A
floods) Netherlands’ Category A and Category B vital processes
Clean water supply (leading to the (see Appendix D).
Cat A
unavailability of fresh water)
Internet itself (disabling the digital This implies that disruption, degradation or destruction of
Cat B (and Estonian political these ‘core security assets’ should cause a physical,
infrastructure or services necessary for the
support) societal or economic damage of:
functioning of society )
Cat B (and British political
Air traffic control (leading to air disasters) * 1,000 – 10,000 people dead, seriously injured or
support)
chronically sick;
Large-scale production/processing and/or
Cat B (and French political
storage of (petro)chemical substances
support) * 100,000 – 1,000,000 people with serious societal
(leading to an 'ecological disaster') survivability problems;
Financial systems (including government Cat B (and Dutch political
processes for ‘taxation’) support: keynote speech MoD) * 5,000,000,000 – 50,000,000,000 euros.
Communications networks (necessary for Cat B (and Dutch political
‘policing’) support: keynote speech MoD)
Heads of State (leading to their
(No Dutch ‘vital process’, but unanimously supported by the IGE)
assassination)
Military capacity (making it impossible to Cat B (and Dutch political support: AIV/CAVV Report), but excluded from the field
deploy the armed forces) research due to the specific focus on non-military targets
Cyber-attack scenarios for which the Netherlands’ armed attack-threshold could lie somewhere in the defined bandwidths2
Cyber-attack scenarios for which the Netherlands’ armed attack-threshold could lie somewhere
in the defined bandwidths.24
236 F. OORSPRONG ET AL.
Appendix B
French 5-tier categorization of the gravity or severity of cyber-attacks (UN General Assembly
2021; Secretariat General de la Defense et de la Securite Nationale 2018, 80)
POLICY DESIGN AND PRACTICE 237
Appendix C
British 5-tier categorization of the gravity or severity of cyber-attacks (National Cyber Security
Centre 2018)
238 F. OORSPRONG ET AL.
Appendix D
Netherlands’ 2-tier categorization of vital processes (Nationaal Co€
ordinator
Terrorismebestrijding en Veiligheid 2020)
Olievoorziening A
Interneoegang en dataverkeer B
Spraakdienst en SMS* B
Scheepvaartafwikkeling B
Effectenverkeer B
Inzet polie B
POLICY DESIGN AND PRACTICE 239