What is conditional probability?

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring

based on the occurrence of another event. Conditional probability
is a fundamental aspect of probability theory.
Conditional probability questions often involve picking two objects
from a set. This is because once you have picked the first object,
the probabilities change for the second pick, based on the outcome
of the first pick.
For example,
If we have a bag containing 3 strawberry sweets and 4 lemon
sweets.

The probabilities of picking each type of sweet are

P(Strawberry) =3/7
P(Lemon) =4/7
If we picked out one strawberry sweet, there would
be 2 strawberry sweets and 4 lemon sweets left.
The probabilities would now be
P(Strawberry) =2/6
P(Lemon) =4/6
If instead we picked out one lemon sweet, there would
be 3 strawberry sweets and 3 lemon sweets left.

The probabilities would now be

P(Strawberry) =3/6
P(Lemon) =3/6
The probabilities are calculated based on what has already
occurred.

How to calculate conditional

probability
In order to calculate conditional probability:

1. Identify the number of desired outcomes under the

condition.
2. Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
3. Write the probability.

Probability =number of desired outcomes /

total number of outcomes
Probability =total number of outcomes ÷ number of desired outcomes
Example 1: using a Venn diagram
The diagram below shows the results when 25 students were
asked whether they can speak French or Spanish.

A student is chosen at random. Find the probability that the

student can speak French given that they can speak Spanish.

1. Identify the number of desired outcomes under the

condition.
The desired outcome here is that the student speaks French.
The condition is that they speak Spanish.
We need to identify the number of students who speak French and
Spanish.

There are 10 students who speak French and Spanish.

This will be the numerator of our fraction.
2Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
The condition is that they speak Spanish so we need to consider all
the students who speak Spanish.

There are 10+4=14 students who speak Spanish.

This will be the denominator of our fraction.
3Write the probability.
Probability =number of desired outcomes ÷ total number of outcomes
Probability =10/14
This probability can cancel to 5/7.

Example 2: using a two-way table

The table below shows the hair and eye colour of a group of
people.

A person from the group is chosen at random. Find the probability

that the person has blonde hair given that they have blue eyes.
Identify the number of desired outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Write the probability.
Show step

Example 3: probability of one event given

another event has occurred
A bag contains 6 blue balls and 10 yellow balls. One ball is picked
and it is yellow, it is not put back into the bag. A second ball is
then picked. Find the probability that the second ball is yellow
given that the first ball was yellow.

Note: Remember our formula for conditional probability

Conditional Probability

P (A|B) = the probability of A happening, given that B has already happened.

P (A|B) = P (A ⋂ B) / P (B)

P (A|B) = the probability of A and B happening at the same time divided by all the
possible ways B could happen*

Identify the number of desired outcomes under the condition.

Show step
Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Write the probability.
Show step

Example 4: probability of one event given

another event
Lauren has a deck of cards. Lauren draws one card from the deck
and does not replace it. The card she draws is an ace. Lauren then
picks a second card. Find the probability that the second card is not
an ace given the first card was an ace.
Identify the number of desired outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Write the probability.
Show step

Note: A deck of playing cards consists of 52 cards divided into 4 "suits": hearts, clubs,

spades, and diamonds. Each suit consists of 13 cards with different values: 9 "number cards

(numbered 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10), 3 "face" cards (Jack, Queen, and King) and an Ace.

Example 5: probability of two events using a

tree diagram
There are 12 socks in a drawer. 4 are white and 8 are black.
William picks one sock and then picks a second sock without
replacing the first. Find the probability that both socks are white.
We can draw a tree diagram to represent the possible outcomes,
Since there are 12 socks to begin with, 4 of them white
and 8 black, the probability of picking a white sock on the first pick
is 4/12 and the probability of picking a black sock is 8/12.
The probabilities for the second pick need to be calculated given
the condition that the first pick has already occurred.
Let’s first assume that the first pick was a white sock.
Identify the number of desired outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Write the probability.
Show step
Now let’s assume the first sock was black.
Identify the number of desired outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Write the probability.
Show step

Example 6: probability of two events using a

tree diagram
Karam has a box of chocolates containing 14 milk chocolates
and 6 white chocolates. Karam eats 2 chocolates. Find the
probability that Karam eats two chocolates of the same type.
We can represent this using a tree diagram.
We need to work out the probabilities for the second chocolate.
If we assume the first chocolate was milk…
Identify the number of desired outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Write the probability.
Show step
If we assume the first chocolate was white…
Identify the number of desired outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Identify the total number of outcomes under the condition.
Show step
Write the probability.
Show step

Common misconceptions
• Not changing the probability for the second pick when
picking two objects
For example, if you have a bag containing 3 blue balls
and 7 yellow balls, the probability of picking a blue ball on the first
pick is 3/10 .

If a blue ball has been picked on the first pick and not replaced,
then the probability of a blue ball on the second pick is 2/9
because there are 2 blue balls left and 9 balls altogether.
• Incorrect fraction work
Adding, subtracting, multiplying or dividing fractions incorrectly.

• Simplifying fractions
Usually when we have fractions in maths we simplify them. In
probability questions it is usually better to leave fractions in their
unsimplified form. This is because we often need to add fractions
to solve probability problems.

Remember that fractions need a common denominator in order to

add them. Check with the question if you are asked to give your
final answer as a fraction in its simplified form or not.

Practice conditional probability questions

1. This Venn diagram shows the results when 30 people were
asked whether they have a cat or a dog.
Find the probability that a person selected at random has a cat
given that they have a dog.

7/9
17/30
7/16
17/26

2. The two-way table shows information about the gender and age
of employees at a company.

A person from the company is chosen at random. Find the

probability that the person is female given that they are 3030 or
over.

28/57
19/36
19/28
28/36

3. Lily has the following cards,

Lily picks two cards. The first card is an A. Find the probability that
the second card is also an A.

1/7
2/8
1/8
2/7

4. A football team contains 9 boys and 6 girls. The coach is

choosing players at random for a match. The first player picked is a
boy. Find the probability that the second player picked is a girl.

6/15
6/8
6/14
8/14

5. Ben and Jacob randomly pick a packet of crisps from a multipack

containing 6 packs of ready salted and 6 packs of cheese and
onion. What is the probability they both pick a packet of ready
salted crisps? Give the answer in its simplest form.

1/4
5/24
3/11
5/22

6. Fred is a golf player. The probability that Fred gets a hole in one
on a dry day is 0.2 and the probability that Fred gets a hole in one
on a rainy day is 0.1. Fred is going to play golf tomorrow.

The probability that it will be raining is 0.7. Find the probability

that Fred will get a hole in one.

0.13
0.14
0.07
0.3

Conditional probability GCSE questions

1. Vicky has a box of chocolates containing 5 white chocolates
and 11 milk chocolates. Vicky eats one milk chocolate.

Find the probability that the next chocolate she picks is also a milk
chocolate.

(2 marks)
Show answer
2. (a) This two way table shows information about a group of
people’s favourite preferred cereal. Complete the two way table.

(b) Find the probability that a person picked at random prefers

muesli given that they are female.

(4 marks)
Show answer

3. There are 8 counters in a bag. Three of the counters are red and
the rest are blue. A counter is chosen at random. It is not replaced.
A second counter is chosen at random.

Calculate the probability that both counters are blue.

(3 marks)
Show answer
4. Tom designs a game. Players must roll a fair dice. If they get a
multiple of 3, they pick a ball from bag A. If they get any other
number, they pick a ball from bag B.

Bag A contains 4 red balls and 6 blue balls.

Bag B contains 2 red balls and 8 blue balls.
A player wins if they pick a red ball. Find the probability a player
wins the game.

(4 marks)
Show answer