1.

1 Introduction – the system of demographic change

Define key terminology linked to population change, including measures of fertility (crude
birth rate, total fertility rate), mortality (crude death rate) and population growth,
including natural increase and doubling time.
 Crude birth rate: the number of births per 1000 population per year —> measure of
fertility
 Crude death rate: the number of deaths per 1000 population per year —> measure
of mortality
 Natural change (increase): the growth rate of the population based on births and
deaths per year; highest rates are just under 4%
 Natural change = crude birth rate – crude death rate
 A population growths thanks to its births (natural change) and immigrants (net
migration) and it goes down bc of its deaths and emigrants
 Doubling time: the amount of time it takes for a given quantity to double in size or
value at a constant growth rate. We can find the doubling time for a population
undergoing exponential growth by using the Rule of 70. To do this, we divide 70 by
the growth rate (r).
 Note: growth rate (r) must be entered as a percentage and not a decimal
fraction. For example 5% must be entered as 5 instead of 0.05.
 dt = 70/r
 For example, a population with a 2% annual growth would have a doubling
time of 35 years.
 35 = 70/2
 Total fertility rate TFR: the average number of children a woman gives birth to during her
lifetime (values between 1.3 and 7)
 Replacement level: The fertility rate required to maintain a population at its current size.
 This is often calculated as approximately 2.1 (the number of children needed for
births and deaths to cancel each other out).
 Can fluctuate between 2.06 (Luxembourg) and 2.7 (Chad, Nigeria) depending on
mortality rates.
Calculate natural increase and doubling time. Interpret data from graphs.
cry Crude birth Crude death Natural change Doubling time Total
rate (per rate (per (%) fertility rate
1000) 1000) (TFR)
Niger 45.6 8 45.6-8=37.6 70/3.76=18.617 7.07

37.6/10=3.76%

Suggest reasons for differences in fertility and mortality rates and natural increase.
1. Socioeconomic factors: Wealthier and more developed countries tend to have lower fertility
rates and higher life expectancies, while poorer and less developed countries tend to have
higher fertility rates and lower life expectancies. This can be due to factors such as access to
healthcare, education, and economic opportunities.
2. Cultural factors: Different cultures have different attitudes towards fertility, childbirth, and
family size. Some cultures may place a high value on having many children, while others may
prioritise smaller families.

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 3. Government policies: Governments can implement policies that influence fertility and
mortality rates. For example, some countries may offer incentives for couples to have more
children, while others may provide healthcare and family planning services to encourage
smaller families. Government policies can also affect access to healthcare, education, and
economic opportunities, which can influence mortality rates.
4. Environmental factors: Environmental factors such as climate, geography, and disease
prevalence can affect mortality rates. For example, countries with tropical climates may
have higher rates of disease, leading to higher mortality rates. Similarly, countries with harsh
climates or difficult terrain may have higher mortality rates due to difficulties in accessing
healthcare and other resources.
5. Demographic factors: The age structure of a population can also affect fertility and mortality
rates. Countries with a larger proportion of young people may have higher fertility rates,
while those with a larger proportion of older people may have higher mortality rates.

Describe key aspects of projected population growth.

Projected population growth refers to the expected changes in a population over time, based
on factors like fertility, mortality, and migration. It can be described by the growth rate, age
structure, population size, regional and national differences, and implications for society.
These factors can vary between countries and regions, and have important social, economic,
and environmental implications.

1.2 Explaining demographic patterns

Describe and explain global patterns in fertility and mortality

 Subregions where high values

are found —> in parts of africa
(values ranging from 28-45
births per 1000 population)
 Subregions where medium
values are found + in oceania
most countries have a crude
birth rate of 12-20, also in
South America most countries
have a crude birth rate of 20-
28
 Subregions where low values
are found + mostly in Europe
and North America with a
crude birth rate of 5-12
 Anomalies > for Asia China and
Japan have a low crude birth
rate (5-12), Iceland and papua
new guinea have slightly
higher values than the other
countries of the continent
 Subregions where high values
are found + parts of Africa
values between 5 and 6.7 (e.g.
Chad 6.2,Niger 6.7)

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  Subregions where medium values are found + parts of South America, Asia and
Africa, values between 1.9 - 4.2 (e.g Algeria 2.9, Venezuela 2.2)
 Subregions where low values are found + North America, Australia, Europa and
parts of Asia (values between 0.8 and 1.9) (e.g Switzerland 1.5 or Japan 1.3)
 Anomalies + Afghanistan 4.6, Kosovo 2.1, papua new guinea 3.2 (all higher
than other countries in region), brazil lower than surrounding countries (1.6)
Fertility rate
 Fertility rate will be low when:
o Emancipation of women +better education, kids less likely to die, might
have children later or not at all
o Access to abortions or contraceptives
o Improved healthcare + lower child mortality rate
o Amount of women in childbearing age
o Government policies

Crude death rate

 Subregions where
high values are
found + easter
europe 16-22 (russia
15, ukraine &
romania 17)
 Subregions where
medium values are
found + North
America (Mexico 9,
canada 8)
 Subregions where
low values are found
+ Asia, North Africa
(e.g Egypt 7)
 Anomalies + region
in Saudi Arabia or Oman very low, for asia Japan high with 12 or Kazakhstan with 10

 Subregions where high values

are found + most parts of
Africa and parts of Asia 27-75
(nigeria 72, Afghanistan 45)

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  Subregions where medium values are found + parts of South America with values
between 14-27
 Subregions where low values are found + Europe, North America, parts of South
America and Australia with values between 2-14
 Anomalies + bolivia 27, north korea 14, libya 9
 Reasons for a high crude death rate:
o Poor healthcare
o war/ conflict
o High old age population
o Prevalence of disease
o Not enough clean water, lack of hygiene or diseases can spread in water
o Lack of access to food +
o malnutrition
 Reasons for high infant mortality rate:
o Disease
o No access to healthcare + vaccines etc, birth complications if issues with
healthcare
o Lack of sanitation, hygiene
o Pneumonia
o Low education of mother
o Children of very young or old mothers more at risk
o Spacing of births + body doesn't have enough time to recover which can
Impact kids
1.3 Demographic Transition Model – patterns, causes and consequences
of demographic change
Analyse population pyramids and understand their use for making predictions about the
future population structure.
 Show us the age/sex structure of a population
 Help make predictions about future population growth
 Can be used to compare population structures of different countries

Explain population momentum and its impact on population projections.

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  The growth of a population, despite its fertility having decreased below the
replacement level. A country’s population can keep growing for another 50 years
after replacement fertility is reached.
 It occurs because of a relatively high concentration of people in the pre-childbearing
and childbearing years. As these young people grow older and move through
reproductive ages, the more the number of births will exceed the number of deaths
in the older populations (especially if life expectancy is simultaneously increasing),
and so the population will continue to grow.

Recognise that the Demographic Transition Model can be used as a tool to classify
different demographic scenarios, but that ultimately it is a model that does not directly
depict reality
 The demographic transition model describes a sequence of changes over a period of time in
the relationship between birth and death rates and overall population change
 Suggests that all countries pass thru similar demographic transitions stages or will do, at a
given time
 Gives reasons for the changes at each transition stage
 Gives examples of countries that fit those stages
 It has some limitations
 Doesn’t consider or predicts
o birth rates in very developed countries --> leads to population decline --> maybe a
fifth stage needed
o It is Eurocentric --> assumed that all the countries would go thru those stages but for
ex. Africa will ever become industrialised
o Assumed that fall in death rate was bc of industrialisation --> it was bc of medicine
o The fall in birth rate in 3 is slower in certain countries bc of religion
o The fall in birth was quicker in china bc of the 1-child policy

Identify the different stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

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Explain the main causes for the different stages of the DTM
Stage 1: high stationary
 Birth and death rates balanced but very high
 Natural increase doesn’t occur
 Stage 1 is more for undeveloped countries that haven’t gone thru industrialisation and are
more agricultural
 No access to fertility education and contraception
 Poor access to health care, education, sanitation, more diseases, less food
 They have a lot of kids bc most of them die young and also to take care of the parents when
they are older

Stage 2: early expanding

 Baby boom
 Industrialisation
 More Access to health care —> death rates go down
 Country begins to show signs of development
 Higher natural increase bc higher birth rates —> population rises dramatically
 Water quality
 More access to education
 Ex. niger

Stage 3: late expanding

 Population still increasing
 Birth rates begin to reduce and also lower death rates
 Improved access to contraception
 people don’t want as much children —> gender equality starts playing a role and it
influences women if they want to stay at home or go study and work
 bigger families isn’t necessary bc of industrialisation —> birth rates reduced
 india or turkey

Stage 4: low stationary

 high population w/ low birth and death rate —> population stays the same
 can decline bc of fewer births (ppl don’t want to have as much children)
 no replacement rate as fewer ppl are being born
 can decline bc of ageing population
 high levels of development
 US, australia

Stage 5: decline or incline?

 Could decline —> total population isn’t replacing itself
 Death rate remains low but fertility rates can go both ways
 Migration can also influence the population
 Japan

Describe and interpret population pyramids in relation to fertility, mortality, and life
expectancy
 death rate high but crude mortality rate will
decrease at some point bc of medicine
 The birth rate is increasing
 Life expectancy is low

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  We predict high growth in the future —> there will be more middle aged people and maybe
more children too

 death rate is low —> decreasing (convex

sides)
 the birth rate is stable
 life expectancy is medium high
 we predict medium growth —> there are
many people of child bearing age and
rates are beginning to stabilise.

 death rate is low but in the future it will

be high
 The birth rate is decreasing bc people are
more educated
 Life expectancy is high thanks to medicine
and health care
 We predict that the population will
increase a little bit and then decrease
because there will be less people who can
have kids

Match population pyramids to specific stages in the DTM.

1.4 Relations between generations – the social, political and economic

challenges of demographic change

Calculate dependency ratios.

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COUNTRY % Population 0- % Population % Population 15-64 Dependency ratio
14 65+ (economically active)

Japan 12 29 12+29=41 —> 100-41=59 ( 41/59)*100=69.4915

Examine the causes, consequences and proposed solutions for ageing populations.
 Examine Japan as a case-study of an ageing population.

Causes of an ageing society in Japan Consequences of Suggested solutions for the

an ageing society problems caused by an
in Japan ageing society in Japan
More deaths than births, falling fertility Shrinking population Free childhood education
rates
Rural decline / Immigration of foreign
High life expectancy depopulaton of rural workers (40,000 given work
areas (villages that permits in 2019 - health care,
Less marriages (20,500 marriages less each only contain old construction, food services) –
year) people) still very limited

Females reluctant to have children: Less economic "Womenomics" - encouraging

financial pressures and traditional gender growth, budgetary more females to work in a
roles that force many to give up work challenges society where males are
when they become pregnant (housework traditionally the breadwinners
and childcare responsibilities) - only 14% of Dwindling workforce - would this help raise the
fathers took paternity leave last year birth rate?
Flourishing “silver
Females: higher levels of education economy” (products Working on robot
marketed specifically development to address
Increasing cost of marriage to the elderly) elderly care and dwindling
workforce
Job insecurity and/or long working hours
(working culture) Financial pre- and post- natal
support
Deterioration of job opportunities for
young men – uncertain financial future

Not attractive for foreign workers

Examine the causes, consequences and proposed solutions for youthful populations
 Examine Niger as a case-study of a youthful population.

Causes of a youthful Consequences of a Suggested solutions for the

society in Niger youthful society in problems caused by a
Niger youthful society in Niger

TFR of 7 (high fertility rate) Fast doubling time (17 years Contraception

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 Early marriage, first child by for Niger) Explaining to women contraception
18 - > more time to have Coupled with climate change is to help space births and reduce
many children -> poverty, famine, violence, infant mortality rates (not to stop
Polygamy conflict, political instability having children)
More than half of girls don't High unemployment Education, encourage girls to go to
complete primary school High emigration rates school
Only 1/10 girls attend Crime & terrorism
secondary school
1/4 of women are literate
Conservative strain of Islam
that encourages families to
have as many children as
possible
Children bring wealth ("two
hands to work, one mouth to
feed")
High infant mortality rates
Family/cultural pressure

Explain population momentum and the demographic dividend.

Population momentum refers to the tendency of a population to continue to grow even after fertility
rates have declined, due to the age structure of the population. This happens because the
population has a large number of young people who are still in their childbearing years and will
continue to have children, even if the fertility rate falls below replacement level. As these young
people age, they will have fewer children, but because there are so many of them, the population
will continue to grow for several decades before stabilising.

The demographic dividend, on the other hand, is a positive economic outcome that can occur when
a country's age structure changes as a result of declining fertility rates. When a country's population
shifts from having a high proportion of children and young adults to having a larger proportion of
working-age adults, there can be a surge in economic growth, because there are more people in the
workforce and fewer dependents to support. This can lead to a period of rapid economic growth and
development, provided that the right policies are in place to support investment, education, and job
creation. The demographic dividend is a one-time opportunity, however, and if the country fails to
take advantage of it, the benefits may be lost.

1.5 Independent population profiles

Extract and examine population data for a country of your choice
Examine the causes, consequences and proposed solutions for the demographic situation
in a country of your choice

Latvia

causes Consequences Proposed solutions

Low birth rates below 2.1 Smaller workforce Boost birth rate by
births per woman Shortages of skilled workers encouraging people from
Young people emigrated for Ageing population abroad to return home
more money abroad Pressure on pensions, Incentives for having

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 Twice as many people died healthcare and social children
as were born —> high death services Boost state subsidies for
rate Don’t support large scale childcare
People want to have immigration bc of postwar Reform pensions
technological jobs and not history
agricultural ones so they
emigrate more bc in other
countries they pay 3-5x
more

Compare and contrast the demographic situation in at least two countries (other than
Japan or Niger)

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