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TECHNICAL NOTE

Decarbonization o
Transport Sector
Bus

Carbon intensity of energy

sources

SEPTEMBER 2022
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TECHNICAL NOTE EPE/DPG/SDB/2022/03

Cover Images 1.
Developed by Racool_studio on Freepik.
Director
2. Free disclosure. Obtained from Pixabay.
Heloisa Borges Bastos Esteves 3. Powered by master1305 on Freepik.
4. Free disclosure. Obtained from Pixabay.
Technical Coordination
Angela Oliveira da Costa

Technical Team
Angela Oliveira da Costa
Marina Damião Besteti Ribeiro
Rachel Martins Henriques
Rafael Barros Araujo

Administrative support
Sergio Augusto Melo de Castro

President
Minister of State
Thiago Vasconcelos Barral Ferreira
Adolfo Sachsida
Director of Economic-Energy Studies and
Executive Secretary Environmental
Hailton Madureira de Almeida Giovani Vitória Machado

Secretary of Planning and Development Director of Electric Energy Studies

Energetic Erik Eduardo Rego
José Guilherme de Lara Resende Director of Oil, Gas and
Biofuels
Secretary of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels
Rafael Bastos da Silva Heloisa Borges Bastos Esteves

http://www.mme.gov.br Director of Corporate Management

Angela Regina Livino de Carvalho
http://www.epe.gov.br
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ÿ Document Identification and Revisions

Study area

Directorate of Oil, Gas and Biofuels Studies (DPG)

Superintendency of Petroleum Derivatives and Biofuels (SDB)

Study

Carbon Intensity of Energy Sources

Date of
Revision Description
issue

r0 09/20/2022 Submission of the final version of the Technical Note to the AEA

r1 11/22/2022 Publication on the EPE website

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ÿ Summary
Glossary................................................. .................................................... ........................ 1

Goal................................................. .................................................... ......................... 2

Introduction...................... .................................................... ............................................... 2 1.
Methodology ................................................. .................................................... .............. 3 1.1.
RenovaCalc................................................. .................................................... ...............................5 1.2. Other energy
sources................................................. .................................................... ....................6 1.3. Demand for energy sources and
their physical properties................................................. ...................6 2. Final
Energetics.......................... .................................................... .............................. 7 2.1. Oil
derivates............................................... .................................................... ................7 2.2. Vehicle Methane
Gas.................................................. .................................................... ..................9 2.3. Anhydrous and hydrated
ethanol .............................................. .................................................... .........10 2.4.
Biodiesel.................................................. .................................................... .................................11 2.5.
Electricity ................................................. .................................................... ...........................12

3. Energy Sources – Results................................................. ........................................ 17 3.1. Technical

Parameters.................................................. .................................................... ...............17 3.2. Fuel
Demand.................................................. .................................................... ......19 3.3. Average Carbon Intensity of the
Transport Matrix ....................................... ..............22 Final
Considerations................................. .................................................... .................... 23
Appendix ............................ .................................................... ....................................... 24 Bibliographic
references ..... .................................................... ........................................ 28
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Glossary

Well-to- tank ( WTT)

Refers to emissions involved in the extraction processes (well), processing, storage and distribution,
up to the final point of use (tank). Its values vary depending on the energy source, production method
and modes of transport, until it is made available to the market (SMART FREIGHT CENTER, 2019).

Tank-to-wheel ( TTW)
Refers to emissions arising from the use of fuels to generate energy. The efficiency related to each
vehicle technology was not considered in this document (JEC, 2020; SMART FREIGHT CENTER,
2019).

Well-to- wheel , WTW

It comprises emissions from the life cycle of fuels, being equivalent to the sum of the well-to-tank and
tank-to-wheel stages (SMART FREIGHT CENTER, 2019).

Energy-Environmental Efficiency Rating (NEEA)

Within the scope of the National Biofuels Policy, RenovaBio refers to the difference between
carbon intensities of the substitute fossil fuel and that of biofuel, which is established in the certification
process of production units (ANP, 2018a).

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goal

This Technical Note aims to contribute to the debate about the decarbonization of the road
transport sector, in a life cycle assessment focused on the well-to-wheel.
To this end, a study will be presented on determining the carbon intensity of energy sources (ICE) for
each energy source in this segment, measured in (gCO2eq/MJ). It is worth highlighting that the
document does not address aspects related to vehicle efficiency, measured in MJ/km.
The study was conducted by EPE in response to the invitation made by the Brazilian Association
of Automotive Engineering (AEA), as recommended by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), to
coordinate the Carbon Intensity GT of current and future fuels in the Brazilian energy matrix. transport,
within the scope of the AEA Fuels Committee. Several meetings were held with sector actors, public
and private agents, in order to collect contributions for the preparation of the
document.

Introduction

Anthropogenic emissions of gases that intensify the greenhouse effect have been increasingly
discussed worldwide and the amplification of this topic occurs due to the heightened consequences of
climate change, as highlighted in the periodic reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change – IPCC. Recently, even more explicitly, in the contributions of the Working Group on the
Scientific Basis of Climate Change to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which highlights that
human influence has warmed the climate at an unprecedented rate in the last 200 years (IPCC, 2021).

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Fifth Assessment Report – AR5) (2013) had already
compiled scientific data that confirm that human influence on climate change is the main cause of
current global warming, in a clear and increasing way, with impacts observed on continents and
oceans. However, there are ways to limit these effects and their risks, through continued human
development and economic growth, and it is essential to take actions to reduce expenses and
economic, technological, social and institutional challenges.
The possibilities listed in AR5 point to initiatives in adaptation, mitigation and sustainable
development. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown
continuously between 1970 and 2010, being more intense in the period from 2000 to 2010. They can
cause even greater and lasting warming, in addition to changes in the components of the climate
system, increasing the likelihood of serious, widespread and irreversible impacts on people and
ecosystems . Limiting climate change requires substantial and ongoing reductions in GHG emissions,
in conjunction with adaptation.
As climate change is driven by population size, economic activity, lifestyle, energy use, land use
patterns, technology and environmental policies, any changes in these drivers can directly impact final
GHG concentrations.
In this sense, strategies that consider mitigating emissions in the transport sector, which was
responsible for 16.2% of the global total in 2016, become effective measures to reduce the impacts of
climate change (OURWORLDINDATA, 2020).

1
This report has not yet been published in full (IPCC, 2021).

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Brazil actively participates in international discussions on climate change. In its Nationally Determined Contribution
(NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), during the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21), as a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the
country made the commitment to reduce, in 2025, GHG emissions by 37% and in 2030, it indicated to decrease by 43%, taking
2005 as a reference. In 2021, a new commitment was signed, the Glasgow Climate Pact, discussed at COP 26, which included
all countries participating in the Paris Agreement, when Brazil committed to reducing its emissions by 50% in 2030 and, as an
objective of long term, aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

Such measures continue to encompass all sectors of the economy, such as agriculture and energy, the latter including transport
(BRASIL, 2009, 2022).

The National Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio) establishes targets for reducing carbon intensity (CI) for the transport matrix,
with an assessment focused on the energy-environmental efficiency of different biofuels, compared to fossil fuels.

(BRAZIL, 2017). On the other hand, the analysis of vehicle energy efficiency is regulated by INMETRO (National Institute of
Metrology, Quality and Technology) and is part of the guidelines of the Rota 2030 Program (BRASIL, 2018).

In 2021, the Fuel of the Future Program was launched, which aims to increase the participation of sustainable and low-
carbon-intensity fuels, integrating several public policies, such as RenovaBio, the National Program for the Production and Use
of Biodiesel, the National Program of Vehicle Labeling and Route 2030. The use of aviation biokerosene and sustainable
alternatives in the maritime sector were also covered. Additionally, measures for carbon capture in the production of biofuels
and hydrogen were proposed by this program (CASA CIVIL, 2021; CNPE, 2021).

Considering the GHG emission level of the different options, a systemic and complete assessment of the decarbonization
potential of these routes is essential. Furthermore, the direction of public policies and business strategies requires the
standardization of sources and methodologies for calculating the factors involved in this analysis.

Therefore, the present study aims to propose an assessment of GHG emissions for the different energy sources that
drive vehicle technologies, whether internal combustion,
hybrid or electric, considering the characteristics and peculiarities of the Brazilian market and the well-to-wheel life cycle
analysis. The commercial fuels considered were: gasoline C (gasoline A and anhydrous ethanol), hydrated ethanol, diesel B
(diesel A and biodiesel) and vehicular natural gas (NGV), as well as new entrants, such as biomethane and electricity, for the
years 2019, 2020, 2027 and 2032. In addition, values for reference fuels2 are presented.

(E22 gasoline and B7 diesel) in the Appendix of this document.

1. Methodology

To assess the level of emissions from the road transport energy matrix, it is necessary to determine the carbon intensity
(CI), in gCO2eq/MJ, of the various energy sources that can be used. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology will be
used, which corresponds to all stages related to production, such as extraction and processing of raw materials, distribution,

The reference fuels are established by ANP Resolution No. 864/2021 and used in vehicle consumption and
two

emissions tests. In these cases, gasoline has the addition of 22% anhydrous ethanol (E22), and diesel has 7% biodiesel
(B7) (ANP, 2021d). These biofuel levels differ from those available at retail stations at the time of publication of this
document (27% anhydrous for regular C gasoline and 25% for premium gasoline; 10% biodiesel in B diesel).

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use, reuse, maintenance and final disposal in the environment. LCA is a tool, standardized by international technical standards,
that evaluates the environmental and human health consequences associated with a product or process, determining the
amount of CO2eq emitted at all stages per unit of energy relative to each fuel (ABNT, 2014).

The scope of this study is limited to the calculation of the carbon intensity of energy sources (ICE), and will have the
well-to-wheel concept as a reference, with emissions involved in the construction of manufacturing units and the manufacture
of vehicles not being addressed. (when all these stages are considered, the term cradle-to-grave is used). Figure 1 illustrates
the stages related to the life cycle of energy sources, in the terms adopted in this analysis.

Figure 1: Life cycle of energy sources

Source: EPE (Own preparation) based on JEC (2020)

Therefore, this study will present the carbon intensity of energy sources in the road transport sector, encompassing the
processes of production, storage, distribution and use in vehicles. It is important to highlight that the combination of the carbon
intensity of energy sources (gCO2eq/MJ), presented here, with the efficiency of vehicles (MJ/km) results in the emission of

gCO2eq/km, with well-to-wheel coverage. However, as mentioned, aspects relating to vehicle efficiency (MJ/km), the subject
of study by another AEA technical commission, will not be covered in this study.

The analysis period considers the horizon until 2032, for energy sources that can be used in the road transport sector,
which are gasoline C (gasoline A and anhydrous ethanol), hydrated ethanol, diesel B (diesel oil and biodiesel), natural gas for
vehicles , biomethane and electricity. The results will be presented for 2019 (historical), 2020 (historical) and 2027 and 2032.
These last two years were selected because they are milestones of the Rota 2030 Program. A similar analysis was

conducted for reference gasoline and diesel.

Within the scope of RenovaBio, the tool called RenovaCalc determines the carbon intensity of biofuels, in addition to
presenting, for comparative purposes, fixed values for fossil fuels, as will be detailed below. For electricity, an additional
analysis was conducted, considering other reference sources.

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1.1. RenovaCalc

RenovaCalc is RenovaBio's official tool, used to calculate the carbon intensity of biofuels (g CO2eq./MJ)3
through the Attributional Life Cycle Assessment4 ,
with allocation based on energy criteria. It has a well-to-wheel coverage, that is, it accounts for the
emissions from the extraction of natural resources, the acquisition or production and treatment of biomass, its
conversion into biofuel, to its combustion in engines, including all phases of transport (ANP, 2018a). It is observed
that, currently, RenovaCalc does not include in the calculations of carbon intensities emissions related to land use
change, as well as fugitive emissions5 .

The tool presents the carbon intensities of the agricultural, industrial, distribution and use phases, separately.
In the agricultural production phase, there is the option of a “specific profile” (primary producer data) or “standard
profile” (average profile of national production,
6
plus penalty) . In the industrial phase, primary data regarding the
biofuel production process for each unit. In the distribution stage, the tool adopts an average distance7
, from the plant to the consumer, for all modes8 (road; pipeline; rail and sea9 ),
whose value for sugarcane ethanol is 700 km. For national and imported corn ethanol, biodiesel and biokerosene,
it is 1500 km, while for biomethane it is 43 km. Finally, regarding the use of biofuel, greenhouse gas estimates
were adopted for intersectoral sources (ANP,2018a).

The biofuel production routes10 considered are:

• Biodiesel;
• Biomethane;
• Alternative fuels synthesized by fatty acids and hydroprocessed esters;
• Fuel Ethanol.
a) first generation of sugar cane;
b) first and second generation in integrated sugarcane mill;
c) second generation;
d) first generation of sugar cane and corn in an integrated plant (flex);
e) first generation of corn; It is
f) first generation of imported corn.

3
The greenhouse gases considered are detailed in the Appendix (Table A1).
4
Descriptive or accounting technique that aims to attribute to a product, manufactured at a given moment,
share of total pollutant emissions and resource consumption in the economy (WEIDEMA & EKVALL, 2009).
5
CONAMA Resolution No. 501/2021 defines fugitive emission as the diffuse release into the atmosphere of any form
of solid, liquid or gaseous matter, carried out by a source without a device designed to direct or control its flow (CONAMA,
2021).
6
ANP Resolution No. 758/2018 also presents typical values for the national production of biofuels, which seek to
represent the average quantity of inputs contributed to Brazilian agricultural production systems
(ANP, 2018a).
7
The average distances adopted in RenovaCalc correspond to an approximation (ANP, 2018b).
8
For more details, we suggest consulting Table 2 of the Technical Note “RenovaCalc: method and tool for accounting
for the carbon intensity of biofuels in the RenovaBio Program”. It is assumed that the pipeline, rail and maritime logistics
systems also include road transport in their composition (ANP, 2018b).
9Only for imported corn ethanol.
10
The inventory data for processes upstream of the agricultural process comes from the Ecoinvent v.3.1 database
(WERNET et al., 2016). Priority was given to adopting production and processing inventories for Brazil (BR), global (GLO2)
and, when these were unavailable, 'RoW3' inventories were used (ANP, 2018a).

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RenovaCalc also presents fixed values for the carbon intensities of substitute fossil fuels11, which are gasoline A,
diesel A, natural gas and aviation kerosene, determined based on data from the literature, which were adopted in this study.
The difference between the carbon intensity of the substitute fossil fuel and that of the biofuel corresponds to the Energy-
Environmental Efficiency Rating (NEEA), resulting from the certification process of the production units.

Production units and importers that decide to participate in RenovaBio and obtain the Certificate of Efficient Production
of Biofuels must meet a series of eligibility criteria such as, for example, there is no vegetation suppression in the area of the
property with a Rural Environmental Registry (CAR). active or pending asset in which energy biomass is planted, as of
December 2017, and which are detailed in ANP Resolutions No. 758/2018 and No. 802/2019 (ANP, 2018a, 2019) and ANP
Technical Report No. 02/SBQ ( ANP, 2021a).

1.2. Other energy drinks

In addition to the fuels covered within the scope of RenovaBio, this study will evaluate the participation of electricity in
the road transport sector. To determine the carbon intensities of the sources that make up the national electrical matrix, data
were used from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2021), Ecoinvent 3.5 (2018), the National
Energy Balance – BEN 2022 (EPE , 2022a) and projection data from PDE 2031 (EPE, 2022b).

These references were compared and evaluated, in order to verify the adherence of values with the Brazilian reality.

1.3. Demand for energy drinks and their physical properties

Data relating to the history of fossil fuel consumption (gasoline, diesel and CNG),
biofuels and electricity generation were taken from the National Energy Balance (BEN/EPE) (EPE, 2022a). Regarding
segregation by raw material used to obtain ethanol (sugarcane, corn), the values were obtained from the Ministry of
Agriculture, Livestock and Supply
(MAPA, 2022) and, for biodiesel, from the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP, 2022c).

In relation to diesel, the consumption of light commercial vehicles and the heavy vehicle fleet, which use this fuel, is
considered. For electricity, all sources of electrical generation, fossil and renewable, that make up the national matrix are
covered.

In the future horizon, PDE 2031 projections were used, regarding the increase in total demand, participation of each
energy source in the road transport matrix, penetration of hybrid and electric vehicles and the composition of the electrical
matrix (EPE, 2022b). Specifically, the year 2032 was the result of studies conducted during the preparation of the PDE 2031.

For the specific mass and lower calorific value, the data were obtained from the Balance
Energético Nacional and are the same as those contained in RenovaCalc12,13 and in the ANP Statistical Yearbook,

11
The carbon intensity values of fossil fuels, provided by RenovaCalc, can be
enhanced through data from extraction and processing processes.
12Data regarding biomethane are only present in RenovaCalc.
13
It is noted that there is a difference between these parameters, when compared to those adopted within the scope of the
Rota 2030 Program.

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and were considered constant throughout the horizon of this analysis (ANP, 2018a, 2021b, 2022b; EPE,
2022a).

It is important to highlight that this study aims to provide data and analyzes that serve as a reference
for energy sources related to road transport, so that improvements can be carried out by the productive
sectors, aiming to reduce carbon intensity, improve
fuel quality and increase vehicle efficiency.

2. Final Energy Drinks

This item will present the life cycle assessment of energy sources present in the
road transport sector, with the aim of estimating its carbon intensity.

2.1. Oil derivates

In 2021, the Brazilian refining park had 17 refineries14 in operation, with a processing capacity of 2.3
million bpd, with Petrobras responsible for 84% of the total15. Gasoline and diesel oil are produced in
practically all national refineries and, in recent years, changes in the sulfur content of fuels have required
investments in hydrorefining processes (ANP, 2022a).

Production of gasoline and diesel oil were 28.1 billion liters and 42.8 billion liters, respectively, in 2021.
Consumption of gasoline A in the road transport sector was 28.7 billion liters and 43. 8 billion liters for diesel
A that year. Imports corresponded to an average of 15% and 30%, respectively, based on the last five years

(EPE, 2022a).
The analysis of the life cycle of petroleum derivatives considers the stages of oil production (onshore
and offshore, called upstream), transportation to refineries and other producers (pipelines and cabotage,
midstream), processing and storage and distribution to reseller stations (downstream). Oil arrives at refineries
through pipelines and movement to the terminals is also done by this mode of transport. From the terminals
to the primary distribution bases, pipeline and waterway modes are used. And, for secondary bases, road,
rail or waterway modes can be used. Transport to dealer stations is mostly by road. Figure 2 illustrates these
steps.

14
There are still two units, which are inactive: Univen (Ituoeva/SP) and SSOil (Coroados/SP).
15
Due to the Cessation Commitment Term (TCC), signed with the Administrative Council for Economic Defense
(Cade), the state-owned company's participation may decrease, with the commitment to sell eight of its refineries,
including the related logistics assets (CADE, 2019 ).

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Figure 2: Logistical flows for production, transportation and storage of gasoline and diesel oil.
Source: ANP (2015)
Gasoline is obtained by mixing streams from atmospheric distillation, catalytic cracking, catalytic
reforming and alkylation. A higher octane gasoline is also produced16
(premium), with higher proportions of streams from these last two processes. Diesel is obtained by
atmospheric distillation and hydrotreatment of streams from other process units, such as Catalytic
Cracking (FCC), Delayed Coking, among others.
According to RenovaCalc, the carbon intensity of gasoline is 87.4 gCO2eq/MJ and diesel is 86.5
gCO2eq/MJ, with no distinction between national and imported. The emission factor related to use is
71.33 gCO2eq/MJ and 74.43 gCO2eq/MJ, respectively (ANP, 2018a).
It should be noted that refineries are constantly seeking improvements in their processes, in order
to take advantage of streams with lower added value and reduce emissions. The production of premium
gasoline requires a greater participation of processes with higher energy expenditure and, on the other
hand, its use can be more efficient in certain vehicle models and in certain high power conditions. It is
important to note that, currently, the use of this
Premium gasoline impacts only a small portion of the Otto cycle fleet, given the diversity of characteristics
of the engines that make up the national fleet and the conditions in which the vehicles are used (in
cities, congestion, roads). Furthermore, it has a higher price, which tends to
make its use difficult for the general population.
There is also the possibility of producing co-processed diesel17, which refers to the transformation
of renewable biomass simultaneously with medium oil fractions, such as diesel, in refineries for fuel
production (PETROBRAS, 2021).
At this stage of the study, the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel will be considered constant,
according to the value provided by RenovaCalc. Figure 3 presents the stages of the life cycle analysis
of these liquid fossil fuels.

16
In this case, the anhydrous ethanol content is 25% and the RON is 97, and regular C gasoline is 93 (ANP, 2020).
17
This process involves the catalytic hydrogenation of a mixture of diesel oil and vegetable oil fractions in a hydrotreatment
reactor (HDT), under controlled conditions of high temperature and hydrogen pressure. Current regulations allow the commercialization
of co-processed diesel as diesel A, as long as it meets the specification and quality criteria (ANP, 2010, 2013). Petrobras announced
low-carbon projects in its 2022-2026 Strategic Plan, aiming to produce diesel with renewable content (5% to 7%) (PETROBRAS,
2021).

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Figure 3: ACV of petroleum derivatives (gasoline and diesel)

Source: Own preparation based on JEC (2020)

2.2. Vehicle Methane Gas

Brazil has 16 natural gas processing centers and the network is more than
9,000 km (EPE, 2022b). Additionally, imports are made through three international gas pipelines or as liquefied natural gas
(LNG). In 2021, national production was 48.8 billion m3 and consumption in the road transport sector was 2.2 billion m3 (12%
of final energy consumption) (EPE, 2022a). The life cycle of natural gas follows a flow similar to that observed in liquid fossil
fuels, detailed previously. After extraction from the reservoirs, the natural gas is sent to the processing unit (UPGN), through
gas pipelines and then undergoes the separation of its components, followed by its applications, use in automobiles being one
of them.

Similarly to that adopted for gasoline and diesel, the carbon intensity of CNG is that available at RenovaCalc, at a value
of 86.7 gCO2eq/MJ18 , with the stage referring to use being 78.13 gCO2eq/MJ (ANP, 2018a) .

Figure 4: ACV of natural gas for vehicles

Source: Own preparation based on JEC (2020)

In recent years, biogas, which has a high biomethane content, has shown great potential for application in several
sectors, such as electricity generation, vehicular use and injection into natural gas networks. This biofuel can be obtained
through the anaerobic digestion process, defined as the conversion of organic material, through bacteria, into methane, carbon
dioxide, some inert gases and sulfur compounds, in an environment without oxygen. Different substrates can be used for its
production and the amount of biogas obtained depends mainly on the technology used in digestion and the substrate. In Brazil,
the greatest potential for biogas is found in the agricultural sector, such as agricultural waste and confined livestock farming.

18
According to ANP Resolution No. 758/2018, this value corresponds to an average of data referring to gasoline,
diesel and CNG (ANP, 2018a).

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Despite the relevant Brazilian biomethane production capacity, a significant penetration into the
road transport matrix was not projected within the scope of this study. It is noted that, according to the
ANP, at the end of 2021 there were three biomethane producing units certified (out of a total of four) by
RenovaBio (100% eligible volume), with an average carbon intensity of 9.32 gCO2eq /MJ (ANP, 2022b).

2.3. Anhydrous and hydrated ethanol

In Brazil, first generation ethanol (E1G) can be produced from sugar cane and corn. Ethanol
production by sugar-energy plants is already consolidated, with a total of 29.9 billion liters in 2021 19,
mainly concentrated in the Center-South region (responsible for more than 90% of this total) (MAPA,
2022). Brazil also has two second-generation ethanol commercial units, made from sugarcane bagasse.
On the other hand, corn-based plants (full or flex)
20 have shown considerable growth, having produced 3.3 billion liters that same year (UNICA, 2022).

According to the ANP (2022b), in June 2022, there were 357 units authorized to sell ethanol, of
which 267 were already certified, which corresponds to 75% of the total. Of this total, 257
produce biofuel from sugarcane (1G and 2G), with an eligible volume of around 90% of production
capacity. For corn ethanol21 , the eligible volume was 43% in the 4 full units, and
65% in the case of the 6 flex plants. In relation to total ethanol production in 2021, of 29.9 billion liters, the
eligible volume produced by certified units corresponded to around 80% (ANP, 2022b; EPE, 2022c).

For the years 2019 and 2020, the carbon intensity of each of these sugarcane ethanol production
routes (1G and 2G) and corn was based on the value presented in RenovaBio certifications until 2021,
considering a segmentation by type of material raw material used in production and also the proportion of
units that use primary and standard data. In the remainder of the analyzed period, a reduction in IC was
considered, due to investments to make the plants' production process more efficient (with RenovaBio as
an inducer) and a greater number of certifications with primary data, which will increase from 63% to 85%
at the end of the study period
(ANP, 2018a, 2022b; EPE, 2022b, 2022c; UNICA, 2021). Values related to emissions from burning
they were 0.66 gCO2eq/MJ for the hydrated and 0.44 gCO2eq/MJ for the anhydrous (ANP, 2018a).
Figure 5 presents the stages of the life cycle analysis of sugarcane and corn ethanol.

Figure 5: ACV of ethanol (sugarcane and corn)

Source: Own preparation based on JEC (2020)

19
The 2021/22 sugarcane harvest was impacted by water deficit and frost, leading to a drop in
productivity indicators.
20
The full corn unit produces biofuel only from the grain, while the flex unit also uses sugar cane.

21
Corn cultivation is difficult to track due to the high number of suppliers of this crop.
grain for biofuel producing units.

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2.4. Biodiesel

In Brazil, biodiesel is commonly produced from the reaction between triglycerides and fatty acids
with alcohol, in the presence of a catalyst, resulting in methyl or ethyl esters of fatty acids, called FAME
(Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) or FAEE (Fatty Acid Ethyl Esters), respectively. In the country, methanol is
the alcohol most used in the process. Various raw materials can be used in these reactions and
soybeans have shown a majority share over the years, of around 70%, followed by beef tallow (9%)
and other inputs, such as fatty materials, pork fat and olive oil. frying.

The national biodiesel sector (FAME) registered a total of 53 production plants in December
2021, maintaining the concentration in the Central-West and South regions of the country. That same
year, 6.8 billion liters of this biofuel were consumed (ANP, 2022c). It is observed that the percentage
of mandatory addition of biodiesel is 10% in 2022, as determined by the CNPE (CNPE, 2021).
Green diesel is a renewable fuel formed by a mixture of paraffinic hydrocarbons with a chemical
composition similar to that of fossil fuel (drop in22), and can be produced from different routes, such
as the hydrotreatment of vegetable and animal oil, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from renewable sources,
as well as fermentative processes and oligomerization of alcohols (EPE, 2020).

ANP Resolution No. 842/2021 presented the specification and obligations regarding the quality
control of green diesel23 (ANP, 2021c). In this way, regulations began to incorporate technological
advances and allowed the use of other biofuels from the Diesel cycle, in addition to biodiesel.
(FAME). To date, there is no forecast for the implementation of commercial units in Brazil24 (EPE,
2020), therefore, paraffinic biodiesel will not be considered in this study.
The carbon intensity of biodiesel ester (FAME) was determined by RenovaCalc based on the
raw material used to obtain it (soybean oil, palm oil, cotton oil, frying oil, waste oil and animal fat). The
distribution and use stages have fixed values, in the same way as for other biofuels. Currently, the
certification of biodiesel production units presents an additional difficulty, since the raw material comes
from different suppliers and can be held by numerous intermediaries, which makes tracking25 and the
certification process difficult.

22
Drop-in biofuels are hydrocarbons, functionally equivalent to those of petrochemical origin and
fully compatible with existing oil infrastructure (EPE, 2020).
23
The regulated routes and raw materials are: I) hydrotreatment of vegetable oil (in natura or residual), algae oil,
microalgae oil, animal fat and biomass fatty acids, as well as hydrocarbons bioderived by the microalgae Botryococcus braunii;
II) synthesis gas from biomass, via the Fischer-Tropsch process; III) fermentation of carbohydrates present in biomass; IV)
oligomerization of ethyl alcohol (ethanol) or isobutyl alcohol (isobutanol); and V) catalytic hydrothermolysis of vegetable oil (in
natura or residual), algae oil, microalgae oil, animal fat and biomass fatty acids.

24
On December 9, 2020, through CNPE Resolution No. 13, a Working Group was established to evaluate the inclusion
of biofuels for use in the Diesel cycle in the National Energy Policy (EPE, 2020), which aims to address the ways insertion of
green diesel into the fuel matrix.
25
The ANP, together with Embrapa and MME, has initiatives to improve the performance of biomass
grains (soy and corn) at RenovaBio, through a project within the scope of the Brazil Energy Program - BEP (ANP, 2021e).

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As of June 2022, 56 plants are authorized to produce biodiesel. Of these, there were 32 certified26 in RenovaBio,
corresponding to around 60% of the total number of plants, with an eligible volume of 44% of their production (ANP,
2022b). In relation to biodiesel production in 2021, of 6.8 billion liters, the eligible volume produced by certified units
corresponded to around 30%.
It is noteworthy that the units that carried out the certification of the agricultural stage did so with standard data (penalized),
that is, it was not possible to use primary data.

To assess the carbon intensity of biodiesel producing units and their evolution throughout the study period, a survey
of certifications that occurred until June 2022 was carried out, with a segmentation by type of raw material used in
production, also considering filling in the data for the agricultural stage, and differentiating the units that certified only with
the industrial stage.

For the years 2019 and 2020, carbon intensity was based on the value of units certified until 2022, taking into
account the weighted average IC per type of certified raw material and the participation of each one in biodiesel production .
In the remaining years, an evolution in IC was also considered, based on the recertification of the agricultural part with
typical data from soy-based biodiesel producing units, which already make the declaration at this stage. Thus, it was
admitted that part of the units that already declared the agricultural stage with standard data in 2020 will gradually carry
out certification with primary data, reaching 50% by 2032 (due to lack of available information, in this study the typical
value was used as base). Furthermore, consideration was given to the share of raw materials. The emission related to use
was 0.44 gCO2eq/MJ. Figure 6

presents the stages of the life cycle analysis of ester biodiesel (ANP, 2018a).

Figure 6: LCA of biodiesel ester (FAME)

Source: Own preparation based on JEC (2020)

2.5. Electricity

The Brazilian electrical generation matrix was built using large reservoirs, capable of storing energy and providing
the necessary flexibility to meet demand. However, for various reasons, the matrix has been changing in recent years and
this change in profile is moving towards increasing flexibility and diversity, with greater active consumer participation. The
national electricity sector has, over the years, followed

several initiatives to maintain the high share of renewables, given the high Brazilian availability of these resources, through
programs and public policies, such as PROINFA and PROEÓLICA, specific auctions for biomass, wind and solar, ProGD
(for distributed generation), among
others.

26
Biodiesel production has certification difficulties associated with the traceability of soybean production, which is
the main raw material used (in the same way as corn, as mentioned previously).

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Historically, the Brazilian electrical matrix has a considerable share of renewables, and in 2021, it had a generation of
656.1 TWh, 55.3% of the total energy being of hydro origin, followed by wind, sugarcane bagasse and solar. This trend also
continues throughout the years of this analysis, as shown in Graph 1, according to data from PDE 2031 (EPE, 2022b). The
percentage share of sources from the electrical generation matrix injected into the SIN (excluding self-production 27) is presented
in Table 1 below.
and distributed generation)

Graph 1: Electric generation matrix for SIN – Brazil

900
OTHER RENEWABLES
800
SOLAR
700
WIND POWER

600 BIOMASS

500 HYDRAULIC
TWh

OTHER NON-RENEWABLE
400
URANIUM
300
COKE GAS
200
FUEL OIL
100 DIESEL OIL

0 COAL
2019 2020 2027 2032

Source: EPE (2022a; 2022b)

Table 1: Participation of sources in the national electrical matrix injected into the SIN
2019 2032 2020 2027
Natural gas 9.3% 5.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0%
8.2% 8.1%
Coal 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.8% 3.4%
1.9% 0.8%
Diesel Oil 0, 3% 0.0% 15.9%
0.9% 9.8% 68.5% 0.0%
Fuel oil 69.1% 4.5% 6.0%
0.3%9.7% 13.1% 0.0%
Coke oven gas 1.0% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 84.1%
0.0% 0.4%
Uranium 90.2% Note 1:2.5%
The share of 4.0%
Other non-renewable biomass, for the years 2019 and
0.3% 0.0%
Not renovable 2020, is in accordance
14.2% with the 13.4%
Hydraulics National Energy Balance (EPE,
69.3% 63.4%
Biomass 2022a). For 2027
4.6%and 2032 it is 5.5%
Wind made up of 80% of that coming
10.0% 14.7%
Solar from sugar cane and 20% of
1.5% 3.0%
Other Renewables bleach. 0, 4% 0.0%
Renewables 85.8% 86.6%

Note 2: As already stated, the PDE 2031 projections presented here and internal studies only consider electrical
energy injected into the grid, that is, they do not include self-production and distributed generation.
Source: EPE (2022a, 2022b)

27
For more details on electrical generation projections, we suggest consulting Chapter 11 of PDE 2031 (EPE,
2022b).

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The analysis of the impacts of emissions related to electrical generation incorporates energy consumption resulting from
the stages of extraction of primary sources, transformation, transmission, distribution and use. To determine its carbon intensity,
the values of the emission factors presented by the IPCC (median) and Ecoinvent 3.5 (2018) were considered, for each source
that makes up the national matrix28
, as detailed in Table 2. Figure 7 presents the stages of the electricity
generation life cycle analysis.

Table 2: Carbon intensity of electrical generation sources

Electrical generation sources IC (gCO2eq/MJ) Source

Hydroelectric 6.67 IPCC

Wind 3.06 IPCC

Solar 11.39 IPCC

Sugarcane bagasse 13.68 Ecoinvent 3.5

Firewood 12.67 Ecoinvent 3.5

Bleach 36.42 Ecoinvent 3.5

Other renewable sources 7.72 IPCC/Ecoinvent 3.5

Nuclear 3.31 Ecoinvent 3.5

Steam Coal 227.78 IPCC

Natural gas 136.11 IPCC

Coke Oven Gas 234.00 Ecoinvent 3.5

Fuel Oil Diesel Oil 294.59 Ecoinvent 3.5

200.11 Ecoinvent 3.5

Other non-renewable sources 146.44 IPCC/Ecoinvent 3.5

Note: Refers to the carbon intensities of energy sources, according to IPCC and Ecoinvent 3.5, weighted by the
participation of energy sources in the electrical matrix (2012 to 2021), according to data presented by EPE (2022a).
Source: EPE (2022a); Ecoinvent 3.5 (2018); IPCC (2013, 2021); Schlömer et al. (2014); WERNET et al. (2016)

Figure 7: ACV of electrical generation

Source: Own preparation based on JEC (2020)

Losses refer to the accounting of electrical energy generated, which passes through transmission lines (basic network)
and distribution networks, but which is not sold, whether for technical or commercial29 (non-technical) reasons. These are verified
in the various segments of the system, in addition to transmission systems, medium and low voltage distribution, and in distribution
transformers, connection branches, meters, among others. The calculation of energy losses in networks and

28
The factors used were mainly based on the IPCC and, when not available, those from
Ecoinvent 3.5, except for nuclear, whose value is similar on both bases.
29
Average commercial losses were not included in this study because, historically, a
considerable discrepancy between Brazilian states.

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associated equipment is carried out through an appropriate method of power flow for distribution
networks (COSTA, 2019).
In this context, this study only considered technical losses, which correspond to an average of
11.5%, a value that remained constant throughout the period. Figure 8, below, illustrates the allocation
of these losses in the transmission and distribution systems. It should be noted that technical losses
related to transmission amount to 4.0% and those related to the distribution system, 7.5%. (ANEEL,
2022). In addition, N2O and ozone emissions were considered , due to the ionization of the air in the
boundary layer (corona), caused by the electric-magnetic field of high voltage lines, in the amount of
3.9 gCO2eq/MJ (ARRUDA, 2012; Ecoinvent 3.5, 2018; IPCC, 2013). It should be noted that emissions
related to the so-called corona effect are complex to determine, since they are associated
30
to local conditions and project specifications (THE WORLD BANK, 2010) . As regards the
charging losses of electric vehicles, the specific testing standards, which are being defined by ABNT,
must include all inefficiencies and electrical losses from the AC socket, including those from chargers31
indicated by the vehicle manufacturer.
In this study, losses in charging electric vehicles32 were not taken into account .

Figure 8: Electrical energy losses

Source: ANEEL (2022)

30
More details about emissions associated with the corona effect are presented in the Appendix.
31
If these losses related to loading are not measured, as it is a generic life cycle assessment calculation and does not refer to
a specific vehicle, the average value of 16% may be used, according to DOE (2018) .

32
Details about charging electric vehicles are in the Appendix (Energy consumption of electric vehicles, Figure A1).

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Hydrogen
The use of hydrogen as an energy source for road transport presents itself as a possibility
beyond the horizon of this study. Some ongoing actions aim to identify barriers and national
potential, such as the National Hydrogen Program (PNH2), an MME initiative released in 2021.
There are several processes and sources that enable the production of hydrogen, with
identification usually being made by colors. Thus, we have green hydrogen, the result of water
electrolysis via wind or solar sources, and moss green, obtained through steam reforming,
gasification or anaerobic digestion of biomass or biofuels. Gray (methane steam reforming), blue
(methane steam reforming with CCUS), turquoise (methane pyrolysis without CO2), white (natural
or geological extraction, among others) are also considered. Although widespread, this color-by-
source approach is being replaced by the carbon intensity of the procurement process. A study
released by the IEA (2019) classifies production routes according to carbon intensity, as illustrated
below.

Source: (IEA, 2019)

The use of hydrogen in light vehicles will depend on the greater competitiveness of fuel
cells and the storage of hydrogen on board. It must compete with electric batteries and have a
range of 400 to 500 km, to become attractive to consumers who value this characteristic. An
alternative would be to convert it to hydrogen-based fuel, such as methane, methanol and
ammonia and other liquid synthetic fuels, which have great potential for use in transport and
which, as they are drop in, can use the existing structure.
Despite the advantages identified in the value chain, losses related to efficiency must be
accounted for. According to data from the IEA (2019), 4,000 fuel cell cars were sold worldwide in
2018 and the fleet reached 11,200 units.

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3. Energy Sources – Results

3.1. Technical Parameters

Based on the descriptions made in the previous sessions, Table 3 summarizes the main properties of the fuels,
for the years 2019, 2020, 2027 and 2032. In this period, the specific mass and the lower calorific value (PCI) were
considered constant and in accordance with available in the National Energy Balance, ANP and RenovaCalc.

Table 3: Average physical properties33 of energy drinks34

FUELS Pasta PCB Energy Content
Specific
LIQUIDS (kg/liter) (kcal/kg) (MJ/kg) (MJ/liter)
Anhydrous Ethanol 0.791 6,750 28.26 22.36
Hydrous ethanol 0.809 6,300 26.38 21.34
Gasoline A 0.742 10,400 43.54 32.31
Biodiesel 0.88 9,000 37.68 33.16
Diesel A 0.84 10,100 42.29 35.52
GASEOUS (kg/m3 ) (kcal/m3 ) (MJ/kg) (MJ/m3 )
CNG1 0.74 8,800 49.79 36.84

Biomethane1.2 (96.5% methane) 0.76 11,524 48.25 36.67

Note 1: According to the National Energy Balance, for electricity, the PCI is 860 kcal/kWh (EPE, 2022a).
Note 2: The difference between the values of these physical properties (mainly for hydrated ethanol and CNG) is recorded in relation
to that considered in the Rota 2030 Program and the Brazilian Vehicle Labeling Program (PBEV/INMETRO) (INMETRO, 2016,
2020 ), which are presented in Appendix 1 (Table A2).
Source: ANP (2018a, 2021a) and EPE (2022a)

For biofuels, an evolution of the carbon intensity of the source was proposed, based on a series of assessments,
which included a survey of the CI of units certified until June 2022, prospects for the evolution of certifications with
standard data for primary, participation of various raw materials in production (cane, corn, soybeans, beef tallow), in
addition to
prospects for improvements throughout the production chain. In the case of fossil fuels, the values presented in
RenovaCalc were adopted and remain fixed for the period. For the energy sources that make up the electrical matrix,
the IC was determined based on data from IPCC and Ecoinvent 3.5 and the participation of each source. Table 4
summarizes the evolution of carbon intensities for energy sources in the road transport sector. Graph 2 illustrates the
composition of these IC, with the relative shares of well-to-tank and tank-to-wheel, in the years 2019 and 2032.

33The PCI values used in RenovaCalc are the same as those adopted for this study. These data are being
reviewed by the ANP.
34
See footnote 2 on reference fuels.

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Table 4: Evolution of carbon intensity (gCO2eq/MJ) of energy drinks

2019 2020 2027 2032

Anhydrous Ethanol 27.00 26.88 23.13 20.31

Hydrous ethanol 28.45 28.52 24.63 21.61

Gasoline A 87.40 87.40 87.40 87.40

Gasoline C (E27) 75.09 75.07 74.30 73.73

CNG 86.70 86.70 86.70 86.70

Biodiesel 24.19 24.03 23.58 21.14

Diesel A 86.50 86.50 86.50 86.50

Diesel B1 (BX) 80.45 79.84 77.60 77.26

Electricity 34.22 31.77 22.58 26.62

Note 1: Biodiesel content of 10.3% (2019), 11.3% (2020) and 15% (2027 and 2032).
Note 2: For further details on the methodology for determining the carbon intensities of gasoline (E22 and E27) and
diesel B (B7 and BX), see Appendix (Methodology for calculating the carbon intensity of national fuel mixtures).

Note 3: Carbon intensities of reference fuels are presented in the Appendix (Table A3).
Source: EPE (Own preparation) based on ANP (2018a, 2022b) (historical), EPE (2022a) (historical) and UNICA (2021)

Graph 2: Carbon intensity of energy sources, well-to-wheel

100
87.4 86.7 86.5
90

80

70

60
gCO2eq/

50
MJ

40 34.2
27.0 28.5 26.6
30 24.2
20.3 21.6 21.1
20

10

0
2019 2032 2019 2032 2019/20322019/2032 2019 2032 2019/2032 2019 2032

Anhydrous Ethanol Hydrated Ethanol Gasoline CNG Biodiesel Diesel A Electricity

Well-to-tank Tank-to-wheel Well around the wheel

Source: EPE (Own preparation) based on ANP (2018a, 2022b) (historical), EPE (2022b) (historical) and UNICA (2021)

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3.2. Fuel Demand

The demand in the road transport sector includes light vehicles (cars and light commercial vehicles),
intended for individual transport, and heavy vehicles, used for cargo and collective passenger transport.

As for light vehicles, the Otto cycle fleet totaled 38 million units in 2021, with flex fuel technology
accounting for 80% of the total. In 2032, this fleet is projected to be 49 million units. It is also estimated
that there will be a growing share of the use of biofuels, due to the positive signs of public policies, such
as RenovaBio, as well as improvements in production processes, to be led by the sector. The fleet of light
Diesel cycle vehicles is mostly made up of sports utility vehicles (or SUV – sport utility vehicle), with 2.6
million units in 2021 and which will reach 5.0 million in 2032. For light vehicles , a timid penetration of
trams is considered, with participation from 2032 onwards.

The fleet of heavy vehicles (cargo and passenger transport) totaled 2.2 million units in 2021, with a
share of 80% for cargo transport and 20% for public transport. Within the study horizon, it is projected that
the heavy vehicle fleet will reach 2.8 million units.
For road freight and collective transport35, it is estimated that the penetration of trams, mainly in the short
term, will be driven by the business strategies of important groups, corresponding to 0.1% of the fleet in
2032 (EPE, 2022b).

The energy demands of the transport sector in 2019 and 2020, and the projections for the years
2027 and 2032, are summarized in Table 5. Table 6 and Table 7Table 6 present the demands in terms of
energy and the share of demand of energy sources in total demand (in energy).

35
In this study, the electrical energy to be used by collective electric vehicles considers all generation sources. It is
understood that bilateral agreements may occur between transport companies and generators, aiming to use cleaner
energy, resulting in a reduction in the carbon intensity of the electricity used to charge these vehicles.

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Table 5: Energy energy demands (volume)

2019 2020 2027 2032
OTTO CYCLE

with CNG (billion liters gas. eq) without 57.77 52.35 57.21 65.70
CNG (billion liters gas. eq) 54.69 49.81 53.94 62.37
Gasoline C (billion liters) 38.41 35.93 33.76 39.06
Gasoline A 27.86 26.15 24.64 28.52
Anhydrous ethanol 10.55 9.78 9.11 10.55
Sugarcane Ethanol 1G 10.16 9.14 7.24 8.00
Sugarcane Ethanol 2G 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.51
Corn Ethanol 0.40 0.64 1.75 2.04
Mixture (%) 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
Hydrated ethanol (billion liters) 23.25 19.83 28.83 33.30
Sugarcane Ethanol 1G 22.32 18.04 23.62 27.23
Sugarcane Ethanol 2G 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Corn Ethanol 0.93 1.79 5.21 6.07
Hydrated market share in flex fuel (% v/v) 41.7 39.4 47.7 47.3
Total CNG (billion m3 ) 2.29 1.88 2.43 2.46
CNG 2.29 1.88 2.43 2.46
BioGas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Participation vol. (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DIESEL CYCLE

Diesel B road transport (billion liters) 45.11 45.09 55.48 61.91

Diesel 40.45 39.98 47.16 52.63
Biodiesel 4.66 5.11 8.32 9.29
Mixture (%) 10.3% 11.3% 15.0% 15.0%
Diesel B light vehicles (billion liters) 5.52 3.77 7.47 9.84
Biodiesel light vehicles (billion liters) 0.57 0.43 1.12 1.48
ELECTRIC (MWh)
Electricity 436 986 175,042 543,952

Source: EPE (Own preparation) based on EPE (2022a, 2022b) (history)

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Table 6: Demands for energy sources (energy - MJ)

Billions MJ 2019 2020 2027 2032
OTTO CYCLE 1,632 1,487 1,615 1,868
Gasoline A 900 845 796 921

Anhydrous ethanol 236 219 204 236

Hydrous ethanol 496 423 615 711

DIESEL CYCLE 1,591 1,590 1,951 2,177

Diesel 1,437 1,420 1,675 1,869

Biodiesel 155 169 276 308

Diesel light vehicles 196 134 265 350

Biodiesel light vehicles 19 14 37 49

ELECTRIC
Electricity 0 0 1 two

Light 0 0 0 0

Heavy 0 0 1 two

GAS
CNG 84 69 89 91

BioGas 0 0 0 0

Note 1: The Otto cycle demand (energy) presented does not consider CNG.
Source: EPE (Own preparation)

Table 7: Share of energy demand in total demand (in energy)

2019 2020 2027 2032
OTTO CYCLE
Gasoline A 27.21% 26.86% 21.78% 22.27%
Anhydrous ethanol 7.13% 6.95% 5.57% 5.70%
Hydrous ethanol 15.00% 13.45% 16.82% 17.17%
DIESEL CYCLE
Diesel 43.44% 45.15% 45.82% 45.18%

Biodiesel 4.67% 5.39% 7.55% 7.44%

Diesel light vehicles 5.93% 4.26% 7.25% 8.45%

Biodiesel light vehicles 0.57% 0.45% 1.02% 1.18%

ELECTRIC
Electricity 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05%
Light 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Heavy 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05%
GAS
CNG 2.55% 2.20% 2.44% 2.19%
BioGas 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Source: EPE (Own preparation)

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3.3. Average Carbon Intensity of the Transport Matrix

In this way, based on the evolution of the carbon intensity of energy sources and their respective
demands, the average carbon intensity of the road transport matrix was determined, within the well-to-
wheel scope, as indicated in Graph 3.

Graph 3: Average carbon intensity of energy sources in the road transport matrix
80.00
70.89 71.44
68.00 66.90
70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00
gCO2eq/
MJ

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2019 2020 2027 2032

Source: EPE (Own preparation)

When considering the road transport matrix, carbon intensity presented similar values in 2019
and 2020, an average of 71.17 gCO2eq/MJ. For the years 2027 and 2032, these values are 68.0 gCO2eq/
MJ and 66.9 gCO2eq/MJ, respectively, representing a reduction of 4.1% and 5.6%, in relation to 2019,
rates of - 0.5% pa and -0.4% pa.

Graph 4 presents the carbon intensities of the road transport sector,

also segregating into light and heavy vehicles.

Graph 4: Carbon intensity of the road transport sector (light and heavy)
90.0

80.0

70.0

60.0
gCO2eq/

50.0
MJ

40.0
80.36 79.77 77.37 76.93

30.0 64.15 64.39

60.30 59.32

20.0

10.0

0.0
2019 2020 2027 2032

Heavy vehicles Light vehicles

Source: EPE (Own preparation)

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In this way, a significant reduction in the carbon intensity of the Brazilian transport matrix can be
observed within the analysis horizon, signaling the importance of related public policies, with emphasis on
RenovaBio, Rota 2030 Program and Combustível do Futuro.

It is also noted that improvements can be seen over the next few years, with the reduction of
emissions associated with oil extraction and refining processes, advances in the production processes of
biofuels with greater use of waste, as well as an increase in their participation, in addition to the entry into
the transport matrix of biomethane, of other renewable fuels from the Diesel cycle and hydrogen. Changes
in the quality of all these fuels can also contribute to reducing emissions associated with this sector.

The international commitments assumed by Brazil, in terms of reducing GHG emissions, unfold
internally in public policies and private investments aimed at decarbonizing the domestic economy.

Final considerations

The present study aimed to determine, through well-to-wheel life cycle analysis, the carbon intensity
of the energy sources that are used in the road transport matrix, based on estimates from PDE2031:
gasoline C (gasoline A and anhydrous ethanol), hydrated ethanol, diesel B (diesel oil and biodiesel), natural
gas for vehicles, in addition to new entrants, such as electricity and biomethane.

The methodology adopted in the study was based on RenovaBio. The carbon intensity of fossil
fuels remained constant throughout the analysis horizon, at the value indicated by this program. For
biofuels, considering each raw material used to obtain them, a reduction in average CI values was
proposed, based on the efficiency of production processes and a greater number of certifications with
primary data.

The study highlighted the need to harmonize the physical properties of energy sources used in
RenovaBio, Rota 2030 Program and PBEV. Furthermore, the methodology proposed here allows this
document to be updated, based on each PDE study cycle, progress in biofuel certifications and greater
information on the carbon intensities of
fossil fuels.

Thanks
We thank Ricardo Abreu, Luciano Rodrigues and the technical team at Unica, Marília Folegatti
(Embrapa), Leonardo Zilio, researcher Mateus Chagas (LNBR) and EPE colleague Marcos Farinha, for
their contributions in preparing this document.

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Appendix

A1) Emission factors in the use (burning) of energy sources

Table A1: Emission factors in the use (burning) of energy sources, according to RenovaCalc
Fossil CO2 Biogenic CO2 Fossil CH4 Biogenic CH4 N2O COÿ eq/MJ
g/kg g/MJ
Diesel A (B0) 3,098.8 0.0 0.165 0.000 0.165 74.43
Biodiesel (B100) 0.0 2,762.5 0.000 0.377 0.023 0.44
Anhydrous Ethanol 0.0 1,929.2 0.000 0.283 0.017 0.44
Hydrous ethanol 0.0 1,801.0 0.000 0.475 0.016 0.66
Gasoline A 2,981.1 0.0 1.089 0.000 0.348 71.33
CNG 2,701.4 0.0 4.595 0.000 0.149 78.13

Source: ANP (2018a)

A2) Corona Effect

To determine emissions associated with the corona effect, the “market for electricity, high voltage BR” dataset from
the Ecoinvent 3.5 database (Wernet et al., 2016; Ecoinvent, 2018) was used, including only emissions related to
energy distribution ( emissions of N2O and O3 from the corona effect, and from distribution infrastructure),
calculated with the impact assessment method IPCC 2013 GWP 100a V1.03 (IPCC, 2013) of the life cycle
assessment software SimaPro.

Emissions from electrical energy transmission, calculated by LNBR (2021) in the dataset “Electricity, high voltage
{BR}| distribution, without losses | APOS, U”, derive from the original inventory of Ecoinvent version 3.5 “market for
electricity, high voltage BR”

Ecoinvent includes in its dataset: (a) electricity inputs produced in the country or imported
(electricity inputs produced in this country and from imports); (b) the transmission network; (c) direct emissions
to air (ozone and N2O ) ; and (d) electrical losses during transmission .

To isolate the effects of transmission, a modification was made to the original Ecoinvent dataset in the LNBR (2021)
transmission dataset to only consider:

(b) the transmission network;

(c) direct emissions to air (ozone and N2O) ;

It should be noted that emissions related to the life cycle of the sources and losses related to energy transmission
are considered separately, as already described in the document.

According to Ecoinvent references, N2O and O3 emissions are cited as:

The. “Literature value/ estimation. The electro-magnetic field near high voltage aerial lines can lead to the ionization of air
molecules and to the formation of nitrous oxide and ozone. This reaction happens in a boundary layer called corona.
The formation of pollutants depends on the weather and the surface of the conductor. Therefore, only a few general
assumptions can be made.

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B. Dinitrogen monoxide emissions:

Hill et al. 1984 report a nitrous oxide formation rate between 0.01 and 0.21 g per kWh of electricity
transmitted, valid for North American conditions. The geometric mean of 0.05 g/ kWh. This emission
rate is overtaken for this country.
w. Ozone emissions:

Bohlin et al. 1991 and B+¦hringer et al. 1988 report very low ozone concentrations near the corona,
which can hardly be measured. The value here is estimated from Swiss data:
- annual ozone emissions: 50-1250 tons (Knoepfel 1995, p. 99). The geometric mean of 250 t/ year is
used for calculations.
- annual amount of electricity transported in Switzerland: 60129 GWh.
S. Bohlin, K. Eriksson, G. Flisberg, 'Electrical transmission', World Clean Energy Conf., Geneva, Nov. 1991

A. B+¦hringer et al., 'Ozonbildung an Hochspannungsfreileitungen', Elektrizit+ñtswirtschaft 87(1988) Nr.

21, S. 1017-1022”

250t O3 / 60129 GWh = 4.157728 x 10-6 kg O3/kWh

Table A2: Portions that make up the calculation of the Corona effect (in gCO2/MJ)
Direct emissions Transmission network – Transmission Network – Total

High voltage long distance

3.680556 0.163459 3.95x 10 -2 3.88

Source: (ECOINVENT 3.5, 2018; IPCC, 2013)

A3) Energy consumption of electric vehicles

To determine the energy consumption of battery electric vehicles, the SAE J1634/2021 standard is
used. According to this standard, a factor called RAF (recharge allocation factor) is determined, which
calculates the relationship between the energy supplied by the AC electrical network (Eac – kWh), which
is used to charge the vehicle for the test ( includes the portion of energy used to power the charger), and
the energy consumed by the car's electric motor (Edc – kWh), to travel the route determined by the
standard.
The RAF factor is applied to the energy efficiency result (MJ/km), published in the PBEV/INMETRO
and Rota 2030 programs. Therefore, this energy efficiency takes into account the efficiency losses of the
charger used in the test. Figure 1A illustrates these power measurement points Edc and Ea.

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Figure 1A: Charging measurement points for battery electric vehicles

Source: GM (2022)
A4) Physical properties of energy drinks – Route 2030

Table A3: Physical properties of energy drinks – Rota 2030

Especific mass Energy Content
PCI (MJ/kg)
(kg/liter) (MJ/liter)
Hydrous ethanol 0.810 24.80 20.09
Gasoline A 0.735 43.06 31.65

Gasoline C (E22) 0.745 38.92 28.99

Diesel A 0.830 42.93 35.65

CNG (kg/Nm3) 0.723 kg/Nm3 48.74 35.24 MJ/Nm3

Note 1: As stated previously, a reference fuel is adopted in vehicle consumption and emissions tests. For gasoline C, 22%
anhydrous ethanol is added (in commercial gasoline it is 27%). For biodiesel, the content is 7% (in commercial it is currently 10%).

Note 2: Table A3 summarizes the main fuel properties defined and used in the regulations for the approval of vehicles for calculating
the Energy Efficiency declared in regulatory programs, including the INMETRO Labeling Program (PBEV) and ROTA 2030.

Source: ANP (2021d); INMETRO (2015, 2020)

A5) Methodology for calculating the carbon intensity of national fuel mixtures

Equation 1: IC of gasoline C:

Equation 2: IC of diesel B:

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Source: VOLKSWAGEN (2022)

Table A4: Evolution of carbon intensity (gCO2eq/MJ) of reference energy sources

2019 2020 2027 2032

Gasoline C (E22) 77.54 77.52 76.90 76.44

Diesel B (B7) 82.41 82.40 82.37 82.21

Note: Methodology for calculating the carbon intensity of national fuel mixtures (VOLKSWAGEN, 2022).

Source: EPE (Own preparation) based on ANP (2018a, 2022b) (historical), EPE (2022a) (historical) and UNICA (2021)

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