Kahsay Final Project
Kahsay Final Project
SUBMITTED BY:-
Board of Examiners
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to express our special thanks and heartfelt appreciation to our project advisors
AtoHaile Gidey (MSc.) for their supporting and valuable advising during the course of the
project and for their support by providing necessary material that helps us to safe completion of
our project. Our grateful thanks go to all the staff of water resources and irrigation engineering
department for the commitment that they have shown in their duties and for all that they have
had for us for the last four years. Finally, we are very happy to express our heartfelt thanks to
our families and friends who have supported throughout our study in Aksum university shire
campus.
EXCUTIVE SUMMARY
The study comprises of identification and investigation of feasible site for Hydropower
development on borkena River, selection of hydraulic structures, design and analysis of these
structures, selection of electromechanical equipment’s, economical and environmental impact
analysis of the development. And finally conclusion and recommendations based on the above
analysis is given in this report. The wire site is selected primarily based on topography, and
geology. And the selected wire site is believed to be the most appropriate cross section for the
selected wire type and the reservoir area at u/s of the wire site is considered to be watertight in
geological formulation for the design.
Table of Contents
CERTIFICATE..............................................................................................................................................1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.............................................................................................................................2
LIST OF FIGURS.........................................................................................................................................8
LIST OF TABLES.........................................................................................................................................9
CHAPTER ONE..........................................................................................................................................11
1Introduction...............................................................................................................................................11
1.1.1Location.......................................................................................................................................12
1.2Climate................................................................................................................................................14
1.4.1General objective.........................................................................................................................15
1.4.2Specific objectives.......................................................................................................................15
1.5Data Collection...................................................................................................................................15
1.6Methodology.......................................................................................................................................15
CHAPTER TWO.........................................................................................................................................16
2Hydrologic Analysis..................................................................................................................................16
2.1General................................................................................................................................................16
2.5Outlier Tests.......................................................................................................................................18
2.9D-Index Calculation...........................................................................................................................23
2.10.1Rational Method........................................................................................................................24
2.10.4SCS-CN method........................................................................................................................24
2.10.6Time of Concentration...............................................................................................................25
CHAPTER THREE.....................................................................................................................................31
3.6Protection works.................................................................................................................................37
3.9Intake..................................................................................................................................................41
CHAPTER FOUR.......................................................................................................................................43
4.1 General.....................................................................................................................................43
4.4 General...............................................................................................................................................46
4.4.1Selection of turbine......................................................................................................................46
4.4.2Performance of turbine................................................................................................................47
4.6Electrical equipment...........................................................................................................................51
4.7Generators...........................................................................................................................................51
4.7.1Diameter of generator..................................................................................................................52
4.8CAVITATION....................................................................................................................................52
4.9.1Turbine governor.........................................................................................................................53
4.9.2Transformer.................................................................................................................................53
4.11PENSTOCKS...................................................................................................................................57
AKSUM UNIVERSITYWRIE DEPARTMENT Page 6
DESIGN OF BORKENA MINI-HYDROPOWER PROJECT2015 E.C
4.12TAILRACE......................................................................................................................................60
4.13FOREBAY........................................................................................................................................60
4.13.1Functions of Forebay.................................................................................................................60
4.13.2Layout of Forebay.....................................................................................................................61
4.13.3POWER HOUSE.......................................................................................................................61
4.13.6Pumped Storage.........................................................................................................................63
CHAPTER FIVE.........................................................................................................................................67
5.1General................................................................................................................................................67
5.3Positive Impacts..................................................................................................................................68
5.3.2Employment.................................................................................................................................68
5.4Physical Impacts.................................................................................................................................69
5.5Biological Impact...............................................................................................................................70
5.5.1Vegetation....................................................................................................................................70
5.6.1Bio-Physical Environment...........................................................................................................70
5.7Human Environment...........................................................................................................................71
CHAPTER SIX............................................................................................................................................73
6.1RECOMMENDATION......................................................................................................................74
References...................................................................................................................................................75
APPENDIX.................................................................................................................................................76
LIST OF FIGURS
Figure 1:1 Location map of Borkena Min hydro power Site (source Mobile topography and satellite
Survey data and use application
(GIS)..........................................................................................................12
Figure 2:1 Longest path of water shed river ...............................................................................................26
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2:1 Skewness Coefficient..................................................................................................................17
Table 2:2 Parameters of different result.....................................................................................................18
Table 2:3: Guideline of return period Subermanya K. (2000) ....................................................................20
Table 2:4: Distribution summery................................................................................................................22
Table 2:5: Run off analysis parameter calculation......................................................................................26
Table 2:6CommutationofcompositeHydrography.......................................................................................27
Table 2:7 River cross section data ..............................................................................................................30
Table 3:1 Head iteration.............................................................................................................................32
CHAPTER ONE
1. Introduction
Ethiopia has significant energy resources that are enough to the present and long term energy
requirement of the country. But only some of these resources are presently being exploited. The
main indigenous sources of energy are biomass, hydropower, fossil (fuels), natural gas, coal,
geothermal, solar and wind energy. As Ethiopia is the water tower of east Africa, it is very easy
to benefit these available resources of water at every side of live services.
Although the country is known to have the potential sources, currently most of the energy
consumed comes from hydro power energy.
Water is the essential for the life because it is needed lots of life services to fulfill the needs as
much as possible that should be advantages of the society and it is better for us harvesting these
available resources of water by using the technician and well method. These all point to have
renaissance for the country as developing and raising the hope of the society. So the project
should be hydropower which is the power that derives from the force of energy of the moving
water. It does not only refer to large hydroelectric power plants, it also includes small and micro
hydro system. Hydropower is one of the most reliable renewable energy sources with very good
efficiency and it is widely used to generate electricity.
There are three types of hydropower stations: „run of river‟, where the electricity is generated
through the flow of a river‟; „reservoir‟, where power is generated through the release of stored
water; and „pumped storage‟, where stored water is recycled by pumping it back up to a higher
reservoir in order to be released again.
Hydropower is the most flexible and consistent of the renewable energy resources, capable of
meeting base load electricity requirements as well as, with pumped storage technology, meeting
peak and unexpected demand due to shortages or the use of intermittent power sources. It has
been conservatively estimated that only a third of the total world hydropower capacity has been
developed, with most of this development and growth occurring in anywhere.
Hydropower capacity is often categorized as „gross theoretical capacity‟, the capacity of
hydropower generation possible if all natural water flows contained as much as 100% efficient
turbines are possible; „technically exploitable capacity‟, the amount of gross theoretical capacity
possible within the limits of current technology; and „economically exploitable capacity‟, the
capacity possible within the constraints of current technology and local economic conditions. In
addition to this hydropower development also provides secondary benefit such as recreation,
fishing, flood control etc. where storage is contemplated.
The hydro resources of the country are said to be an immense potential that can be utilized for
any water resources in the country. Due to the countries topography suitability and abundant
river flows, hydropower has been the cheapest and the main energy source in Ethiopia for
supplying energy for domestic, industrial and other energy consumption. In the near future
sufficient energy and capacity appears to be available to satisfy the demand. However, a
significant risk remains of continuing energy shortages depending on successful completion of
ongoing rehabilitation and construction project. It is clear that with the generation project
currently committed for implementation, the sustainability of electric demand of the country will
be guaranteed. As the demand & the supply is not balanced development of Borkena Mini
Hydropower project can contribute its own value in fulfilling the energy demand of the country.
1.1.1Location
Kombolcha is located in south Wollo zone of Amhara National regional state. An altitude of
1906 meters above sea level, and 11008‟ N latitude and 39073‟E longitude It is situated at a
distance of 376 km from Addis Ababa along the main road to Mekele with respect to the
regional capital City; Bahir Dar situated at 522km South East & 22km South East of Dessie
town. (Addis tribune, 2007)
Figure 1:1 Location map of Borkena Min hydro power Site (source Mobile topography and satellite survey data and
use application GIS).
1.2, Climate
Kombolcha town lies within zone identified as ''woinadega'' in which the rain falls amounts
suitable for two crop seasons. In Kombolcha and its surrounding have two major rain seasons.
The major rain season (summer) occurs from July to September and the second season winter
(belg) occurs from February to April. The climate is tropical with a mean annual precipitation of
about 1248mm. average annual temperature 15.9 c. (Addis tribune, 2007)
Problem Statement The development of any country depends on the amount of energy
consumed. Energy consumption is proportional to the level of economic development. In
Ethiopia, the energy consumption per capita is very low and it is almost exclusively generated
from biomass and this has a direct impact for the deforestation. The lighting system, in rural
areas, use kerosene and it produces emission of pollutants. Furthermore, it has a direct impact on
the health of the people. Ethiopia has a marvelous amount of hydro power potential. Because of
the high initial investment cost, it is able to develop only two percent of its potential so far. To
avoid the electric energy draught, renewable energy technologies like mini hydro power
generation, solar photovoltaic and wind turbine can be used to electrify the rural areas.
1.4.1General objective
The General Objective of This Project is to Design Mini Hydropower Project at Borkena River.
1.4.2Specific objectives
Computations of hydrological, metrological geological, and others available data for
design purpose
To design components of hydropower.
1.5Data Collection
For our design procedure the following data are given by Amhara design supervision and
enterprise after the collected from different sources.
Getting information on the hydrogeology of the area
1.6Methodology
In the designing of final year project on Design Mini Hydropower Project the following
procedures were used
Hydrological analysis
Consistency test
By using the above procedures, we design and analysis the proposed mini hydropower project at
Borkena River.
CHAPTER TWO
2, Hydrologic Analysis
2.1, General
Hydrology is used in engineering mainly in connection with the design and operation of
hydraulic structure. To plan these structures, we need one of the following:
i. The flood of certain frequency ii. Daily flows for determining
the storage capacity of a reservoir
iii. The discharge available for a certain percentage of time
The design of water resource project like hydropower project, the peak magnitude of the flood is
of great important to design economical as well as structures with less probability of failure. If
the selected design flood is too high, it results in a conservative and unnecessary costly structure
while adoption of a low design flood can, if a higher than this occurs, results in the loss of the
structure itself causing there by untold misery to the people residing down steam, besides
damaging valuable immovable properties. It is because of this that a detailed study of hydrology
is very important in practice.
Hydrology finds its greatest application in the design and operation of water resources
engineering projects, such as those for Irrigation, Water supply, Flood control, Hydropower
generation. In all these projects, hydrological investigations for the proper assessment of the
following factors are necessary. The capacity of storage structures such as reservoirs, the
magnitude of flood flows to enable safe disposal of the excess flow, The minimum flow and
quantity of flow available at various seasons, The interaction of the flood wave and hydraulic
structures, such as levees, reservoirs, dams, barrages and bridges.
In a general sense, engineering hydrology deals with: Estimation of water resources, the study
of processes such as precipitation, runoff, Evapotranspiration and their interaction, and the
study of problems such as flood and drought and strategies to combat to them.
Before using the meteorological data that is records of a station, it is necessary to check the data
for continuity. The continuity of record may be affected with missing data due to many reasons
such as; Failure of the instrument, Displacement of rain gauge from one place to another place,
Absence of the observer. It is often necessary to estimate these missing records. There are
different methods to fill missing data. Thus are;
A) Arithmetic average method and
PX=precipitation at x station
In this method the rainfalls (Pi) of the surrounding index stations are weighted by the ratio of
normal annual rainfall and when the mean annual rainfall at each of the index station differs
from the station x by more than 10%, the normal ratio method is used. This method is also used
when the index stations are greater than one.
Px=(p1 ….Equation (3.2)
Where PX = precipitation at x station
2.5Outlier Tests
Outliers are data points that depart from the trend of the remaining data. The detention or
retention of these outliers can significantly affect the magnitude. The outlier test is done to
check whether the adopted data is within the limited range or not.
Table 2:1 Skewness Coefficient
Case1 If skewness(Cs) < -0.4 check for lower outlier
As shown from the above calculations the coefficient of skewness Cs value falls in the third
case. So that Cs=-0.26952, Therefore, it needs checking for both lower and higher outliers.
As shown from the above calculations the coefficient of skewness Cs value falls in the third
case. So that Cs=-0.26952, Therefore, it needs checking for both lower and higher outliers.
The Lowest recorded value (38.7 mm) which is greater than the lower outlier (32.61 mm).
Antilog (Yh) = 90.626 mm from this the higher daily heaviest rainfall value is 73.2 mm in the
1997 which is less than higher outlier (90.626 mm). Therefore, there is no higher data which is
eliminated or no recorded data greater than 72.18500651 mm. Therefore, the recorded data is
consistent for both outliers and no data is eliminated.
The flow of magnitude occurring during dry periods of the year would be known for irrigation
schemes for modern irrigation practice and development. The base flow estimation has been
done using the experience of the local people and the existing irrigation practice of the wet or
dry season. This river base flow estimation is determined during field study. In borkena River,
the discharge magnitude was estimated to be around 340 l/se.
Return period is the average interval in year between events when equated or exceeded to a
given magnitude. Selecting a higher return period’s means the corresponding flood magnitude
is also very high. Such a very high flood may ever occur during the life time of a structure.
(Subermanya, 2000) gave the general guide line for selecting the return period.
2 Barrage and minor dams with storage less than 60Mm² 100
3 Spillway of small reservoir dam in considering not endangering urban residences 10-20
Based on the above guide line for our irrigation project 50 years return period is adopted for
diversion weir and the project life 50 and 100 years also recommended.
Among those methods, the Gambles distribution method is more selected to fit the design. So,
we use this method for our design.
To calculate the log Pearson type three distribution parameters, the following steps can be
applied. To assemble the maximum daily rainfall data within the variety of Y. Find Ym.
Determine the probability that occurred in a given return period.
Determine the frequency factor, KT from the computation of W. Calculate the standard
normal variant (Z) from the calculation of KT and W.
=Σ / = 1.744978999
K= (Cs/6) =-0.045
W= (Ln (1/P2)) 0.5 =2.80
Y=Ymean + Z* = 1.886
Design Rainfall, X50 = Antilog(Y) = 76.89mm
For instance, the maximum design point rain falls of 50 years return period analyzed in Log
Person Type Three distribution method is 76.89mm.
Calculate the Gumbel distribution parameters of the following steps can be applied of the data
distribution.
1. State the maximum daily rain falls data and sample size. Now the daily rain fall data is the
variety of X, find the Xm and −1.
2. Determine Yn and Sn in a given sample of N from the table.
Xt=Σ / = 50.00
= − / = 3.07
= + −1= 85.23 mm
Log normal distribution method is especial type of log Pearson type three distribution method
with Cs=0. In the same procedure of Log Pearson type three distributions, we can calculate the
design rain fall using the log normal distribution method.
K=skewness/6=-0.045
W= (Ln (1/P2))0.5=2.80
((2.515517+0.802853*w+0.010328*w2)/(1+1.432788*w+0.189269*w2+0.001308*w3))) = 2.05
Standard Normal Variance,
K=skewness/6=-0.045
((2.515517+0.802853*w+0.010328*w2)/(1+1.432788*w+0.189269*w2+0.001308*w3))) =
2.05
X50=Xmean + KT*σx = 75.65
The D-index test is believed to be the better goodness to fitness in many literatures. Hence in
this Study it was used to determine the best statistical distribution to estimate the peak rainfall.
The D-index tests for the comparison of the fit of various distributions in the upper tail are
given by:
𝐷 − 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑋𝑚
∑ 𝐴𝑏𝑠(𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋)…………………. Equation (3.3)
Where, X and Xi are the ℎ highest observed and computed values for the distribution
respectively and the distribution giving the least D-index is considered to be the best fit
distribution. In our design of the rain fall, the Gumbel distribution method is the appropriate one
that has the least error (0.20) relative to the other. Therefore; the design point rainfall for
Gumbel distribution is 85.23 mm.
Table 2:4: Distribution summery
Method Type Max point Rf (mm) D- index value
75.65 0.686
Normal distribution method
85.23 0.20
Gumbel distribution method
76.89 0.132
Log person type three method
76.89 0.140
Log normal distribution method
Peak rain fall determination is most important task in hydrologic analysis, for it’s through this
analysis result that we can determine maximum design discharge that our structure can with
stand without showing any structural and hydraulically failure. To do this different formula and
methods were developed. For proper design of hydraulic structure and irrigation structure a reliable
estimation of flood discharge is essential. However, flood is essentially a random phenomenon; it is
difficult to predict the exact maximum flood which occurs in the future. It can be estimated only by
a specific probability.To estimate the magnitude of flood, peak the following alternative methods
are available. The following methods can be used to estimate the magnitude of peak flood.
1. Rational Method
2. Empirical Method
2.10.1Rational Method
The rational formula is only applicable to the small size (<5km2) catchments. It finds the
applicable to in urban drainage design and in design of small culverts and bridges. The basic
equation of the rational method is given by:
𝑄𝑝=𝐴∗𝐶∗𝐼/360 …………………. Equation (3.4)
The rational formula was developed, using the following assumptions: Rainfall occurs with a
uniform intensity for the duration at least equal to the time of concentration of the catchments
area, and the rainfall intensity is uniformly distributed throughout the catchments.
Limitation of Rational Formula: Duration of rainfall intensity should be more than the time of
concentration of the basin, it gives the peak of the hydrograph but does not provide the
complete hydrograph, and Rainfall intensity must be constant over the entire watershed during
the time of concentration.
The empirical used for estimation of flood peak are essentially regional formula based on
statistical correlation of the observed peak and observed catchments properties. For example,
almost all formula uses the catchment area as a parameter affecting the flood peak and most of
them negligent the flood frequency as a parameter. In view of this the empirical formula are
applicable only in the region from which they were developed and when applied to other areas
they can at best give approximate values.(Source, Engineering hydrology by Sabrmanya).
Where; Q = the runoff depth for the given rain fall depth
The curve number of the catchment was obtained based on guide prepared by the US soil
conservation service. It is based on the hydrologic soil group, land cover, antecedent moisture
content and treatment of the catchment. The curve number was determined for different plots. In
our case the hydrologic soil group is group D because the soil type is vertisols which consisting
chiefly of clay soils with a high swelling potential. Soils having a moderately high runoff
potential due to low infiltration rates. The land cover type is fair pasture and agro pasture.
Taking the calculated CN value as CN II that means the soil is found in normal condition from
the given data.
𝑆 =25400/𝐶 −254 =25400/92.99-254 =19.24
To allow the differing land use and topographic condition over the borkena water shed a
weighted curve number of 92.99 is selected. But commonly for design flood estimation
antecedent moisture condition III (AMC III) is considered. The formula for convert CN (II) to
CN (III) is: -
AMC III=CN III=CN II / 0.427+0.00573CN II AMC
III= 85 / 0.427+0.00573*85= 92.99
2.10.6Time of Concentration
The time of concentration is defined as the time for runoff to travel from the hydraulically most
distant point in the drainage basin to the outlet or point of interest; it is also defined as the
distance between the end of excess rainfall and the inflection point in the recession limb of the
dimensionless curvilinear unit hydrograph. Time of concentration has been calculated by taking
the stream profile of the longest streamline and dividing it in to different elevation. KirpichS
formula is adopted for computation. The main problem in this formula is the limit of number of
streamline division. Stream line shall be divided according to the slope class.
L3 0.385
Tc= 1.86hr
3 hr.
Sample calculation for Areal point rain fall; Design rain fall (Pd) =85.231mm from Gumble
Rfinc=Pd*RF profile*Areal point ratio where, Rf profile and Areal point ratio 29% and
41.520% respectively. Rfinc= 85.231*0.29*0.4152=10.33mm other are done by similar matter
Table 2:6 Commutation of composite Hydrography.
700
600
Q1 (m³/s)
500 Q2 (m³/s)
400 Q3 (m³/s)
Q4 (m³/s)
300
Q5 (m³/s)
200 Q6 (m³/s)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
Series1
1000
Series2
800
600
400
200
0
0 0.00002 0.00004 0.00006 0.00008 0.0001 0.00012
CHAPTER THREE
The selection of the most suitable type of head work (weir) for a particular site under varies
governing factor required a lot of judgment and experience. After collection of the secondary
design data for borkena head work site and considering the basic feasibility governing factor of
the project such as observation of the available water balance, the target command area and the
cost of future idle canal length, performance (function), availability of construction material,
soil type and it is decided to design a diversion weir with commanding elevation. Weir type
selected for the given height and flood amount is broad crest weir type which could be
subjected to the expected hydrostatic and hydrodynamic forces that can be generated from peak
flood. The weir is to be constructed with cyclopean concrete.
Design flood discharge Qmax= 595.38m3/sec River bed level = 1753.1 m asl.
Canal length=100m (Source: ADSE)
Retrogression = 0.5(assumed)
P= L= =115.901m
=design discharge from hydrology part (Chapter three)
Looseness Factor: - is the ratio of the overall length of the weir to the lacey perimeter.
For the boulder reach of the river it varies 0.4-1 (adopting =0.8, depending up on top map)
R= , f=silt factor=1
= 1.5 m/s
5) Velocity head; Ha
Ha =V =0.11468m
6) Head over the crest, He can be determined with a broad crested weir formula: q=C
C=coefficient, 1.7 for board crested weir, (source: Garg S.K, 2015)
q=1.7
He= =2.318m
Table 3:1 Head iteration
=1754.685+2.318 = 1757.003m
8) Water surface profile upstream of the weir: - can be determined with several methods.
However, for preliminary design, the approximate method can be used and however the method
does not take in to account the geometry of the channel.
(xs2h)2
Hd= 2.3 m
hHdhyn
Table 3:2: Water surface profile upstream of the weir
X 0 50 100 300 500 700 1000 1200 1400
9) Hydraulics of a jump
Hydraulics jump Is a phenomenon of rapidly varied flow at which the state of flow changes
from super critical to sub critical. A hydraulic jump occurs only when the up Stream flow is
super critical (F1>1). At the hydraulic jump the energy of flow Will Be lost. Calculation of
hydraulic jump
h+He=
where
F1= 1.7 to 2.5, weak jump a series of small roller develop on the surface of the jump but the
downstream water surface remains smooth and the velocity throughout is fairly uniform and
energy loss is low.
10) Crest level of head regulator = river bed level + head regulator (1.2 to 1.5)
11) Bed level of canal = crest level of head regulator – canal flow depth
= 1754.305m
=1756.89-(1.5*4) = 1750.89m
16)Maximum seepage head for the worst condition (water level u/s of pond level no tail water)
For no flow condition, Seepage head, Hs= Pond level – Bed Level
17) Height of crest above bed level, H = crest level of weir – bed level of river
a = s+1=0+1=1m
S=height of shutter
This condition is when the water level on the upstream is at the pond level. The overturning
moment is due to water pressure
Hs=H+s=1.585+0=1.585m, Where Hs = seepages (static head)
Mo …………………….…………………..…a
…..………….b
By using equality equation
The weir is submerged when the flood is passing over the crest and the weir is submerged. The
overturning moment at the base is obtained from the water pressure diagram on two sides.
q= /s/m
d=2.3 m
……………………………………. a
Mr
MO=Mr
28.3=1.68B2+1.68B
Hs=3.2m=seepage head
Lu =288-(11.25+4+2*3+2*4) = -0.445m
The negative sign implies the already provided impervious floor is sufficient enough to resist
seepage, but to make up stream floor impervious and seepage is reduced let us provide the
minimum required. So we can take Lu=3m for the u/s length
3.6Protection works
Provide 1m*1m*1m concrete blocks protection over 0.5m thick packed stone.
Bligh‟s theory is used to determine floor thickness and the obtained values are farther checked
by the concept of koala’s theory. According to Bligh‟s theory the seepage head varies linearly
throughout the creep length (2*u/s sheet pile +horizontal length +2* d/s sheet pile) but
according to the Bligh‟s theory the pressure at all key points is determined by using formulas.
Hs=3.2, L=32.25m, G= 2.3
=
b
d2
HS *1
Exit gradient, GE=
d2 **
Up lift pressure: for the case when water is at pond level in the u/s no water at d/s side.
E 1cos1 2
=44.4 %
D 1 cos1 1
= 30 %
C=-19( = +19(
the correction is subtractive, b/c the point corrected are in forward in the direction of the flow.
correction for slope 0 %.
Thickness of the floor at A, (tA) = hA/ (G-1) =0.844/ (2.3-1) =0.65<1.25m……. ok! (Safe)
Thickness of the floor at B, (tB)= hB/(G-1) =0.97/ (2.3-1) =0.75< 0.94m……. ok! (safe)
pressure (C) at,
P= C = E + ((ΦC1- ϕE)/b‟)*L, L=Length of d/s floor
Thickness of the floor at B, (tC)= hC/(G-1) =0.803/ (2.3-1) =0.62< 0.73m……. ok! (safe)
Therefore hence the floor is safe by Khosla’s theory.
Structural analysis deals with checking the stability of the weir against Overturning, Sliding and
Tension. Force acting on the weir Friction force at the base (up lift pressure) to counter balance
the sliding horizontal force, Weight of the weir and Silt-pressure. Analysis of the weir
stability for two conditions should be taken such as:
A) Pond level
When Water is at Pond Level Forces acting in base flow condition are self-weight, silt load and
upstream water load. When Water level is at High Flood Level. In this condition of analysis
there are additional loads, i.e. water level is above weir, Uplift pressure considers tail water
depth and tail water pressures.
Water pressure
3.9Intake
The diversion flow from the river to the main canal is 0.14047 m3/sec. the diversion of the
intake opening is fixed by using orifice formula.
Q=Cd*A (√2gH)
Qd=1.7*A (√2gH)
0.1405m3/s (Q required)
Qd>Q required 0.43>0.1405…..ok (safe)
CHAPTER FOUR
4.1 General
Hydropower is extracted from the natural potential of usable water resources and about one
quarter of the world’s power requirement is at preset derived in this way. Any water resource
program of which a hydropower scheme may form part has environmental and social impacts,
which must be taken into consideration at the initial planning stage.
The power generated in the plant is primarily a function of the discharge and the elevation
deference, net head available at the project site. Then, the site for hydropower plant is selected
on the basis of the following criterion.
For pressure tunnels, it is obvious that the over burden of the rock on the roof of the tunnel
serves to balance the effect of upward force due to internal pressure. The minimum desirable
height of the over burden “hr” for any given internal water pressure head „h‟ is given by the
following condition
Head of water above the sofit of the tunnel at the inlet of the
intake hw=1353.34-1312=41m, taking hw =41m;
Therefore, the minimum overburden that should be provided to resist the water pressure is
hr=2.5 hw=2.5*9=22.5
Therefore; the tunnel alignment should be selected along the location where a minimum
overburden of 22.5m is available. For this particular project, there is ample overburden pressure
throughout the tunnel; therefore, overburden pressure problem is not a major concern.
Where
=the specific weight of water
H= the net head
Firm power is the minimum continuous power that can be generated for 100 percent of the time
and corresponds to the minimum stream flow. Secondary or surplus power is the additional
power that can be generated at a plant in excess of the primary, depending on the plant capacity
provided over the constant load.
Load factor: - is the ratio of the average load over a certain period to the peak load during the
same period. A high load factor is indicative of the better utilization of the installed capacity
and consequently the unit generating cost is less and vice versa.
Load factor =
Installation capacity:
Installed capacity refers to the full capacity of the power plant. The installed capacity can be
determined by multiplying the unit weight of water (), net head (H), over all efficient and
maximum discharge (Qmax).
Firm power P= ** *H
LF=0.8
39.37 m3 /s
Therefore, the Installed capacity,
P= Qmax H net
= 0.92*9.81*39.37*121
= 42.999MW
=0.92*9.81*31.496*121
=34.395Mw
4.4, General
Hydraulic turbines may be considered as hydraulic motors or prime motors or prime movers of
waterpower development, which convert water energy in to mechanical energy (shaft power).
The shaft power developed is used in running electricity generators directly coupled to the shaft
of the turbine, thus producing electrical power. All types of turbine, basically fall into two
categories
Impulse turbine
Reaction turbine
Impulse turbine: All the available potential energy is converted in to kinetic energy with the
help of contracting nozzles. The water after impinging on the curved vanes or bucket is
discharged freely to drown stream channel, example: Pelton wheel. Reaction turbine: In this
type, the water enters the turbine in a circumferential direction in to the scroll case and makes in
to the runner through a series of guide vanes called wicket gates. The available energy partly
converted to kinetic energy and substantial magnitude remains in the form of pressure energy
example Francis, Kaplan, propeller etc.
4.4.1Selection of turbine
The selection of the best turbine for any particular hydro sites depends on the head available, the
power required to develop and the specific speed of the turbine. The various considerations in
the selection of type of units are: -
1. Head: maximum net head acting on turbine is an important consideration in the selection
of type of turbine for a power plant. For heads less than 60m (propeller)
For heads 26-450 Francis and
2. Specific speed: it is defined as the speed at which a geometrically similar runner would
rotate if it were so proportional that it would develop 1 KW when operating under a head
of 1m.
Low specific speed turbine (11-43) Pelton.
3. Efficiency: the turbine efficiency varies with power output and head. Francis and propeller
turbines have high fall of efficiency in comparison to Pelton and Kaplan.
4. Load: the turbine selection is also influenced by the variability of load. The type of turbines
dictates minimum load up to which turbines may be continuously operated without any
cavitation’s and vibration.
5, cavitation’s: cavitation’s is an important consideration in the selection of turbine for the
given head and specific speed. It is an account of cavitation’s limit that high-speed turbine is not
used for high heads, but low speed turbines can work under high heads. In general, cavitation’s
coefficient for Francis turbines is much less than that for Kaplan turbines.
6, Overall cost: it includes initial cost and running cost. As much as possible it should be
adopted minimum overall cost turbine unit. For this project, considering all the above parameters
and using the performance curves, Francis turbine is selected.
4.4.2Performance of turbine
1.Specific speed A geometrically similar runner would rotate if it were so proportional that it
would develop 1 KW power when operating under a head of 1m, and expressed as at the
speed
It is the ratio of the peripheral speed of the bucket or vanes at the minimal diameter, D to the
theoretical velocity of water under the effective head H acting on the turbine. It is given by
Where :-
D= diameter of the turbine
B. Turbine speed
N= Where f=50
Hz
NP No. of poles
Therefore; NP =375rpm
The new specific speed
2. P.C Nag and K. Modhvan’s formula for Fancies turbine
=0.036 =0.634
2. D. Zonobelti’s formula
0.656
17 90
17-30 90-82
130-350 94
350-452 94-93
600-902
1 various values of , Ns, H and efficiency () for the three main types of turbines.
Based on the above parameters, operation head of 121m, generating coefficient 0.652,
generating power of 21.499Mw and the turbine speed of 375rpm makes Francis turbine suitable
for this project.
If the external load on the machine suddenly drops to zero (sudden rejection) and the governing
mechanism fails at the same time, the turbine will tend to race up to the maximum possible
speed, known as runaway speed. This limiting speed under no load, maximum flow must be
considered for safe design. The following formula may also be used to determine proportion of
runaway speed as compared to normal speed.
Where
= (0.1475*137*145)
165.208%
=137m
=121m N=375
rpm
N =658.42rpm
i.e. Nr=760rpm
The discharge diameter can be found with help of the peripheral coefficient . The value of
(calculated before),
=0.652
I. Mosony is formula
D1=0.8
D3=0.5
Hydraulic equipment
Turbines
Governors
Flow measurement
4.6Electrical equipment
Generator
Exciters
Transformers, pumps, cooling systems, connections, funs and plate forms
3.Switching equipment’s
reactors
Miscellaneous equipment
Crane
Work shops
Office rooms
Other facilities (clinic, store, etc.)
4.7Generators
Generators transform mechanical energy into electrical energy. They are essentially designed to
suit the characteristics of the turbine to which these are connected. The speed of generator varies
widely as the head on the turbine and its rating. Generators are usually designed for full runaway
speed of the turbine. The dimensions of the generator and its weight are calculated as follows
4.7.1Diameter of generator
J.J.Dolands formula
Where
K=
0.119
Where g=coefficient that varies between 20&32, taking the average =26
Wg=
Hg=K‟
Hg=8*
4.8CAVITATION
The formation of voids within the body or moving liquid when the local pressure is lower than
vapor pressure. Cavitation’s results pitting, vibration and reduction in efficiency and is certainly
undesirable Cavitation’s may be avoided by suitably designing, installing and operating the
turbine in such a way that the pressure within the units is above the vapor pressure of water. Dr
Thomas of Germany has developed a factor of cavitations, to determine the zone where a turbine
can work without being affected by cavitations.
� =� - ∗� Where: -
� � �
σ= Average atmospheric pressure in m of water
Hs = suction head, height of runner outlet above tailrace H = working head of a turbine
4.9.1Turbine governor
The governor is a mechanism of controlling the rotational speed of the turbo generator unit;
constant speed must be maintained in order to obtain the ac supply with constant frequency. As
the turbine and hence its interconnected generator tend to decrease or increase speed as the load
varies, the maintenance of an almost constant speed requires regulation of the amount of water
allowed to flow through the turbine by closing or opening the gates of the turbines
automatically, through the action of a governor.
4.9.2Transformer
The transmission system delivers bulk power from the power stations to the load centers. The
electrical power may be transmitted by either underground cables or overhead lines. The former
is suited for densely populated areas as these are safer requires less maintenance and do not
influence the appearance the town.
connection between the channel and the penstock. The main purpose is to allow the last particles
to settle down before the water enters the penstock. Depending on its size it can also serve as a
reservoir to store water.
The trash rack is usually placed vertical or near vertical (< 25° from the vertical). placing the
trash rack in an inclined position makes the cleaning easy apart from giving less resistance to the
flow. For this particular project, the trash rack inclination of 20 0 is taken.
V 0.075* (2 *G * H)^
Where: G = acceleration due to gravity H = Head from the center line of gate to normal
Water surface.
= (1508-1507.5) =0.5m
V 0.075* (2 *G * H)^
V 0.12(2gh) =0.376 m/s ii. USBR‟s criterion: permissible velocity in the range of 0.6
to 1.5 m/s, for this project, the trash rake is designed so that the approach velocity (Va) is in
between 0.6 to 1.5m/s.Take average of that is 1.05m/s.
There are numerous expressions available for predicting head loss across trash rack. One
such expression (Kirschmer‟s) is:
Where:
= angle of bar inclination with horizontal = 700 Kt = trash rack loss coefficient
depends up on shape of the bar (Take 1.7 for round shape) hr = 0.001m
B)Gate loss
h
These are losses in the penstock and power tunnel in a hydropower project.
The Darcy Weisbach formula is employed to determine energy loss due to friction resistance in
tunnel and penstock.
Where K = a local loss coefficient takes a value of 0.4. = 0.734m The total hydraulic loss (Hl) is
the sum of all the above losses:
HL = (0.0169m+0.001m+0.037m+0.102m+0.2m+10.4m+1.156m+0.734m) = 12.612m
The surges will depend on the resistance offered by the orifice. The resistance offered by the
orifice may be calculated by the following formula: -
Hor=
Where,
Ao = Area of orifice
Cd = Discharge coefficient of orifice usually varies between 0.6 to 0.9 depending upon the shape
of orifice.
The area of orifice is so chosen as to satisfy the condition given by Calame and Garden for
maximum flow as follows: -
4.11PENSTOCKS
Pressure conduits carrying water from forebay / surge tank to the power house are termed as
penstock. Penstocks are required to bear maximum water pressure including water hammer, they
are quite costly and are a very important part of the water conductor system. As such they
should be designed and installed at the site with utmost care.
Specials for Penstock A number of specials are normally required for use in the penstocks i.e.
(a) Bends
(e) Manholes
(h) Other miscellaneous penstock accessories like piezo metric connections, flanged
connections, filling connections, drainage connections.
Penstock is a covered pipe which is used to convey water from the Forebay tank to the turbine
inlet by keeping the pressure inside. This constitutes a major expense of a micro hydro budget.
Hence it is wise to optimize the penstock design considering the following: -
In many cases mild steel and High Density Poly Ethylene (HDPE) pipes proved to be the most
economical solution for penstocks in micro hydro schemes. However, many aspects, like
availability, costs, weight, stability, have to be taken into account for any specific site. The
penstock alignment should be chosen such that significant head can be gained at a short distance
but still be possible to lay the penstock and build support and anchor blocks on the ground. The
number of bends on the alignment should be kept to a minimum so that the number of anchor
blocks and head loss can be minimize.
The economic diameter of penstock is the diameter for which the annual cost, which includes the
cost of power lost due to friction and charges for amortization of construction cost, maintenance,
operation, etc. is minimum. The economic diameter is calculated by evaluating the annual power
loss and annulated cost of penstock and equating first derivative with respect to „D‟ i.e. the
penstock diameter in meters to zero. On this basis the economic diameter of an underground
steel lined penstock of which the gap between steel ferrules and rock has been backfilled with
concrete can be determined by the following formula: -
Where,
ej = joint efficiency of penstock, and p = ratio of annual fixed operation and maintenance
charges to construction cost of penstock
Where,
P = rated metric horse power of turbine and H = rated head on turbine in metres
V=0.125
4.12TAILRACE
After passing through the turbines, the water is discharged into the stream through a short
channel called tailrace. In case of reaction turbines, the tailrace should be designed to ensure
minimum tail water level required to maintain safe suction head for smooth operation of the
turbine. In case of impulse turbine, maximum water level in the tailrace should not rise to a
limit that it interferes with the turbine runner.
4.13FOREBAY
The forebay is a small storage pond located in between head race channel and penstocks. It
provides immediate water demand on starting the generating units and required water seal over
the penstock inlet against air entrainment. Suitable spillway is provided on one side of forebay
to dispose of safely the excess inflows during load rejection.
4.13.1Functions of Forebay
(a)Distribution of Flow – The forebay should have enough length to distribute flow smoothly
and uniformly and necessary width for arranging the intake, trash racks, penstock and
spillway(b) Regulation of flow – The forebay should have certain storage volume to
regulate the flow when the plant is suddenly loaded.
(c) Protection against silting and floating debris – Silt sluice and trash racks should be
provided in the forebay against harmful particles of silt and floating debris passing into the
turbines.
(d) Provision of water seal over intake - The forebay provides minimum required water
seal over the intake at MDDL against air entrainment.
(e) It should have adequate provision to escape the design discharge in the event of sudden
closure of machines.
4.13.2Layout of Forebay
The layout and dimensioning of the forebay depend on the topographic and geological
conditions and layout of its appurtenances such as spillway, silt sluices, intake structure etc. It
should be located as near to the power house as possible so as to have minimum length of
penstock
4.13.3POWER HOUSE
The functions of the power house are to support and house the generating units and their
accessories as well as the water passages with the purpose of
(i) good performance of the plant,
(ii) cost saving and easy inspection and maintenance. In the initial stage, the layout and
dimensions of the power house are carried out on the basis of data of the existing power
houses.
The power houses related to small hydro are normally surface power houses. In case of run off
the river schemes, the power house is generally located on some flat terrace near the river. The
power house building should be located well beyond the hill toe so that while excavating the
power house pit, the hill mass may not get disturbed. The approach level of the power house
should be at least one meter above the design flood level in the river. As such it would be ideal if
level of the terrace happens to be just above the HFL. In the case of canal based scheme, the
power house is normally located on a by-pass channel. The actual location of a canal based
power house should be so fixed that dewatering effort during power house pit excavation even
when the canal is running at FSL is manageable and within economic limit.
Run-off-river hydro power plant is a mini hydro power plant without any reservoir or storage
capacity. Flow and head are the most important parameters for the design of hydro power plant.
A typical micro hydropower system is arranged as shown in Fig.4.1. The principal components
that are used in the MHS (Mini Hydropower System) could be further classified into civil
components, powerhouse components and transmission and distribution lines.
The demand for electricity is low, pumped storage facility stores energy by pumping water from
a lower reservoir to an upper reservoir. During periods of high electrical demand, the water is
released back to the lower reservoir to generate electricity.
Canal fall based power houses can be of the following two categories
(ii) Power house located adjacent to main canal in a separate bypass channel
Power house located in the main canal – This category is applicable when the
construction of the power house is taken along with the construction of the fall structure
of the canal. The power station is planned adjacent to the fall structure in the canal. With
this arrangement the power house is constructed adjoining the fall as an integral
structure. The canal flow is diverted into the power house by widening and deepening
the canal. The widening and deepening is achieved by suitable splays at the sides and
deepening with gentle slopes of the order of 1(V): 4 (H) or flatter.
Power house located in bypass channel – In this case while the fall remains in the main
canal, the power house is constructed across a bypass channel which takes off just
upstream of the fall structure and is taken parallel to the main canal and then joins the
canal at the downstream of the fall.
The substructure and the super structure of the power house are designed for the following
loads:
(a) Dead load
(e) Crane load including transverse & longitudinal normal and striking crane surges
Strategic aspect: - Safety against bombardment during war, land slide, and earth quake.
Operation aspect: -reduced operation costs on account of shorter lengths of pressure conduits,
smaller head losses.
Aesthetic: - The underground development does not interfere with the natural landscape features
and no deforestation for plant construction.
1. The construction period will be delayed due to snow fall and monsoon.
2. Lay out and conduit alignment can be kept nearly straight depending on the geological
strata.
3. Apart from saving initial cost shorter length means less frictional loss and additional power
production.
3. To get easy access to the power plant. Due to good geological and topographic conditions and
the above reasons, for Baro-II project, underground power house is selected.
Power House structureA hydro power station structure can be conveniently classified as:
1) Sub-structure
2) Intermediate structure
3) Super structure
1) The sub-structure of the power house: is the part of the structure situated below the turbine
level. This includes draft tube, tail water channel and other natural drainage pipes of waste water
from the powerhouse.
2). the intermediate structure extends from the top of the draft tube to the top of the generator
foundation. The turbine including its casing, galleries for the auxiliary machines and the
governor servo – motor system are housed in this part.
3). the super- structure of the powerhouse is the portion extending from the generator floor, up to
the roof. It consists of the generator and governors, control room, the exciters and the auxiliary
equipment. Underground powerhouse with vertical installation is suitable for this project.
The dimensions of the plant are determined by the dimension of the generating units.
Arrangement of shaft
CHAPTER FIVE
5.1General
The implementation of a hydropower project will bring about many changes (impacts)to the
natural and socio-economic environment in which it is set. Some changes will be negative and
others positive. In addition, each negative impact will vary in the extent to which it can be
enhanced. This section sets out to give an insight to how environmental issues relate in broad
terms to hydropower projects. Attempts are made to sort out elements and dimensions of
hydropower projects as they relate to an environmental effect and to look at mitigation factors.
The objective of Environmental Impact Assessment is to bring hydropower planning more in
line with today’s sustainable development concepts and to contribute to improve overall
resources utilization in hydropower and water resource development through protective
environmental planning ideas. The principal source of environmental impacts in a hydroelectric
project is the construction and operation of a dam and reservoir. In the environmental point of
view, hydropower projects by far represent the most appropriate source of power when Properly
planed and managed, it is relatively clean and renewable source of energy in terms of effects on
the environmental (no extraction or burning of fuels) and doesn’t use up foreign exchange
reserves.
5.3Positive Impacts
5.3.2Employment
During the construction and implementation of the project there will be job opportunity for the
local population and other skilled labors. Other benefits are river regulation, flood control and
other infrastructures for the local population either that of rural or for Woreda‟s town alter the
economic, social and political.
life of the population in the area by encouraging the establishment of government offices and
associated services, health and other services, commerce other agro-industrial centers and enable
individual house hold to have access to facilities which were formerly not existing in the area.
Rise in social status with increased food production, mike money will be available
with farmers by raising their standard of living (increase the overall national
economy and living standard) - The community will get access of education,
health center and road.
Provide new employment opportunities for labor from the local area and skilled
trades man locally as well as from other part of the country.
Effects of the development on the surrounding area of land escape
More rounds of crop with availability of irrigation two or three rounds of crop can
be manipulated on same soil with proper rotation of fertilizer.
5.4Physical Impacts
ii)Water quality: -the quality of natural water varies considerably and this contributes to the
diversity of species and habitats found in fresh water. When human activities modify the
chemical environment to the extent that it strays outside the natural range for the river damage to
a fresh water community is most likely to occur. Physical changes such as, vegetation clearance,
leads to greater erosion, which will cause a change in water quality by increasing the sediment in
flow and turbidity.
iii) Ground water: - the change and variation of the water level by the reservoir operation
will change the ground water in the surrounding area. The changed flow on the downstream
water course may also lead to ground water changes. The change in ground water may influence
the supply of drinking water, affect vulnerable wet lands, or lead to water logging of arable land.
Therefore, special attention should pay to changes in the ground water level. iv) Socio-
Economic Environment: -Since the land is fertile and rain is relatively abundant, people in the
study area take farming as the main means of their economy. The main crops produced in the
area are Teff, Sorghum, Maize, Wheat, Barley and different perennial crops.
5.5Biological Impact
5.5.1Vegetation
the flat impervious layer of basalt creates saturated vegetation which contains woody plant
species. The project area is surrounded by evergreen rain forest.
Wild life: -mammals, reptiles and birds are animals that live in the forest around the project site.
5.7Human Environment
The socio-economic environmental impacts associated with the displacement and involuntary
resettlement of people and the loss of agricultural land. There may be displacement of people
along the transmission line alignment, which results in loss of properties such as land and
vegetation. Mitigation is possible through resettlement gain measures, all of which must be
developed through community consultation and participation. The other impact is during the
construction phase associated with a large migrant labor force. This will lead to an increase of
pressure on the infrastructures such as water supply, sanitation, transport etc and a huge amount
of ecosystem exploitation and biodiversity may occur in the area. this may be mitigated either by
providing the same or equivalent development project for the adjacent population so as to reduce
migration of people to seek for new facilities or up grading the capacity existing infrastructures
in the developing project area so as to satisfy the future population demand.
In order to select solutions that minimize latter mitigation actions and maximize the ability of
permanent constructions to meet uncertainties in the environmental situation, the designer must
identify the potential problems at the early possible stage. Unique cultural or ecosystem features
should be threatened by preferred dam, spillway or diversion arrangements. During the
construction of the dam lots of activities such as undesirable noises, air pollution due to the
vehicle and machineries and some others should be properly considered and adequately
responded by the design and construction engineers. Also it affects the flora and fauna, causes
soil and water pollution and health problem.
Potential negative impacts Mitigation measure
1.negative environmental effects of constructions 1. Measures to minimize impacts -air and water
air and water pollution waste disposal soil erosion pollution control. careful location of comps,
destruction of vegetation buildings, Borrow pits, quarries and soil and
Sanitary and health problems from construction disposal sites. Precautions to minimize erosion.
camps. Land reclamation.
2. Dislocation of people living in inundation zone 2. Relocation of people to suitable area. Provision
of compensation in kind for resource lost. Provision
of adequate health services, infrastructure and
employment opportunities.
3. Lose of land (Agricultural, forest, range, wet 3. Sitting of dam to decrease losses. Decrease of
lands) by inundation to form reservoir. dam and reservoir size protection of equal areas in
region to offset losses creation of usable land in
previously unusable areas to offset losses.
4. Loss of wild lands and wild life habitat. 4. Setting of dam or decease of reservoir size to
avoid / minimize loss. Establishments of
compensatory parks or reservoir areas.
Animals rescue and relocation
5. Proliferation of aquatic weeds in reservoir and 5. clearance of wood vegetation from inundation
dam stream impairing dam discharge and fisheries zone prior to flood.egg (nutrient removal) -weed
and increasing water loss through transpiration. control measure Harvesting of weeds for compost,
folder of biogas
CHAPTER SIX
have caused landslide in the longer run which is not considered desirable. Similarly, the choice
of mild steel for the penstock and the type of turbine selected were also largely selected based on
the norm of the region. Altogether the study showed that construction of MHP (Micro Hydro
Project) was feasible in the project site and there were no major problems apparent at least at the
design stage of the micro hydro project.
6.1RECOMMENDATION
It has been shown that, from the thesis work, Ethiopia has a huge potential for rural
electrification through the off grid system. There are, however, formidability challenges like low
purchasing power of the rural people, unfavorable public attitude towards the private sector and
unfair regulations that work against development and distribution of renewable energy
technologies. It is thus recommended that the government, non-governmental organizations and
the public make combined efforts to overcome these challenges by using more flexible
approaches to improve the current terrible state of rural electrification in Ethiopia. From the
current situation the government cannot simply afford to electrify rural areas of Ethiopia,
maximum effort must be exerted to change the prevailing attitude towards the private investors
and help the private sector in all possible ways beyond the planning regulations. This thesis
work only describes one selected site of Ethiopia and doesn’t represent all areas of the county.
So, in the future this study should be expanded to include other sites to make it
References
[1] Aklilu Dalelo, Rural Electrification in Ethiopia: opportunities and bottlenecks, Addis Ababa
University, College of Education
[2] Harvey, A., Brown, A., Hettiarachi, P., A (1998): Micro Hydro design manual, a guide to
small – scale water power schemes, Intermediate Technology Publications
[3] Protection and Automatic control for small scale hydroelectric plants, J M Bogart, small
hydropower in Africa, workshop proceeding, Mbabne, Swaziland, 1983.
[4] Biniam Abate, “Design of Micro-Hydro Turbine Suitable for Most Ethiopian Sites”, June
2004
[5] Santosh Kumar Garg, „Irrigation Engineering and hydraulic structure, Delhi, 2005
APPENDIX
APPENDIX A: Rainfall Data Analysis
daily descending
max Rf order(xi) (y-ym) (xi-xm)
No year y=log xi (y-ym) ^3
(mm/da ^2 ^2
y)
1.86451 0.01428 0.0017078 221.103
1 1990 59 73.2 1 79 65 97
1.69722 -
20 2009 73.2 49.8 9 0.00228 0.0001088 72.7683
7 18
1.69548 -
21 2010 64.5 49.6 2 0.00245 0.0001212 76.2204
7 91
1.67024 -
6 0.00558 0.0004173 132.950
22 2011 49.8 46.8 5 93
9
1.66651 -
8 0.00615 0.0004830 142.335
23 2012 49.6 46.4 61 27
2
1.63042 -
8 0.01312 0.0015031 244.310
24 2013 60.4 42.7 2 49
4
1.62531 -
2 0.01432 0.0017136 260.190
25 2014 46.4 42.2 01 93
3
1.58771 -
1 0.02473 0.0038897 385.353
26 2015 54.3 38.7 32 97
5
-
45.3694 0.13637 0.002505 2307.06
Sum 1465.2
5 4 9 4
0.00524 -9.64E-05 88.7332
5 3
1.74497
Ave rage 58.3304 3
9
0.07385
St. Dev 9.39251 7
8 0.00615 0.001042 99.0740
9 1 6
Skew. 0.05327 5 -
Coefficient 0.26952
-
1.61733 1.935807 1.47247
8 1 1
ym 1.744979
9.3925174
N 26 δn-1 = (Σ(X-Xm)^2/N-1)^0.5
0.
0147715 (Σ(Y-Ym)^2/N-
ym= £y/N Sy = 1)^0.5 66
YM= 1.744979 CS = N*Σ(Y-Ym)^3/((N-1)*(N-
2)*(SY^3))
1.
Se 8420242 δn-1/(N^0.5) 27
0.03619
3.6195645 se/xm
xm 50.89077 ẟe= 6 21