ECT 3450: TRAFFIC

ENGINEERING II
Introduction
 Course Content
1. Traffic data analysis
2. Traffic growth and forecasting.
3. Traffic distribution, and assignment.
4. Traffic stream characteristics.
5. Traffic flow modelling.
6. Principles of regional and urban transportation planning.
7. Elements of maneuver areas.
8. Intersection design.
9. Urban traffic management and parking studies.
10. Traffic signals.
11. Highway plan appraisal.
12. Introduction to elements of transportation technology
 Traffic Data Analysis
Traffic data provides information about how travel speeds on
specific road segments change over time. It is important in
network analysis because traffic affects travel times, which in
turn affect results.
 Traffic Data Collection
• Traffic data collection includes:
- Point measurement
- Measurement over a short section
- Measurement over a long stretch
- Measurement over an area
- Moving observer method
 Stream Characteristics from field
– Flow
– Speed
– Density, occupancy -
– Travel time
– Spacing
– Headway

HOMEWORK: Define the above terms as per the subject of study

Measurement procedures
 Traffic Stream Parameters
Measurement procedures
- Measurement at point on the road
– Measurement over a short section of the road
(less than 500 metres)
– Measurement over a length of the road (more
than about 500 metres)
– Wide area samples obtained from number of
locations
– Use of an observer moving in the traffic
stream
 Measurements at a point
• Point Measurement
– Flow or volume count
– Manually
• Observer will stand at the point of interest
• Count the vehicles with the help of hand tallies.
• Interval of 5, 10, or 15 minutes
 Measurements at a point
• Point Measurement
–Types of vehicles
– Cars
– Two wheelers
– Three wheelers
– LCV
– HCV
– Multi axle trucks
– Non-motorised vehicles
» bullock cart
» hand cart
 Measurement at a point
• Point measurement
- Automatic
• Inductive loop detector
• Pneumatic tubes
• Video camera
 Measurements at a point
• Video image processing
 B. Measurements Over Short Section
• Spot speed of vehicles
– Manual methods: Enoscope
• Base length of about 30-90 metres
 Measurements over short section
• Spot speed vehicles
Pressure contact tube
 Measurements over short section
• Inductive loop detector
– Principle of magnetic inductance
– Metallic content in the vehicle passes over it
– A signal will be generated and the count of the
vehicle can be found automatically
– Continuous counts
– Errors due to noise signals generated by heavy
vehicle passing adjacent lanes
Single loop detector
Dual loop Detector
 Measurements over short section
Speed data analysis
– Time and Space Mean Speed
– 85th Percentile Speed
– 95th Percentile Speed
– Median (50th Percentile Speed)
– Speed Variance: The difference in travel
speeds for vehicles on the road.
 Measurements over short section
Cumulative Frequency Distribution Plot for Sample Speed Data
 C. Measurements over long section
• Density
– Using aerial photography
– Single frame give only density
– Time lapse photography
• several frames can give speed
• speeds can be computed from the distance covered between
the two frames and time interval
Measurements over long section
 Measurement over long section
• Travel time
– Stretch of length more than 500 metres
– To obtain variations in speed
 D. Moving observer Method
• Overview
– Obtain relationship between fundamental stream
characteristics
– Observer moves in the traffic stream
– Derived by Wardrop and Charlesworth (1954)
• Suitability
– Rural traffic, Urban traffic with low volume
– Driver follows average speed
 Moving Observer Method
• Derivation
– Consider an observer watching a stream of vehicles: two special cases
arise:
• Case 1: Moving stream and stationary observer
• Case 2: Moving observer and stationary stream
 Moving Observer Method
• Case 1: Moving stream - stationary observer
– If n0 is the number of vehicles overtaking the observer during a
period t, then
– By definition, flow
 Moving Observer Method
• Case 2: Moving observer - stationary stream
• – Let the observer moves with speed vo
– Let np is number of vehicles overtaken by observer over the length l
– Density
 Moving Observer Method
Case 3: Both stream and observer moving
– Observer is moving within the stream
• The general case of Case 1 and Case 2
– Let m0 vehicles overtake the observer
– Let mp vehicles overtaken by the observer
 Moving Observer Method
• Case 3: Both stream and observer moving
– To get both q and v, we need two equations
– Possible by two trips or a reverse trip
Moving Observer Method
Case 3: Both stream and observer moving
– Solving for q, we get
 Moving Observer Method
• – Solving for vs, we get
 Example 1: Moving Observer Method
• Example 1
– Length of the road stretch = 0.5 km
– Speed of test vehicle = 20 km/hr
– No of vehicles encountered while moving against the traffic stream =
107
– No of veh. overtaken the test vehicle =10
– No of veh. overtaken by the test vehicle = 74
– Find the flow, density and mean speed
Moving Observer Method solution
 Example 2: Moving Observer Method
• Example 2
• – Col. 2: no of veh moving against the stream
• – Col. 3: no of veh overtaken the test vehicle
• – Col. 4: no of veh. overtaken by the test vehicle
• – Length = 0.5 km
• – ta = tw = 0.025 hrs
 Example 2: Moving Observer Method
Solution
Moving Observer Method
Moving Observer Method
• Limitation
– Unsuitable for large traffic
– Unsuitable if there is major turning traffic
– Large number of observations required to estimate
reliable data
– Driver bias
 Thank You
By Andrew Onderi
 Lecture 2
TRAFFIC GROWTH AND FORECASTING
Introduction to traffic demand and forecasting
• This chapter is to analyze traffic demands model based on the traffic survey
data conducted in this Study and to forecast future traffic demand under
do-nothing situation.
• In the traffic demand forecast, the traffic is divided into three areas such as
person trips within the study area, truck trips, and trips in outer area as
presented in Figure
• As for person trip demand forecast, the following four-step traffic forecast
method is used:
i. Step 1 Trip generation and attraction including trip production
ii. Step 2 Trip distribution
iii. Step 3 Modal split
iv. Step 4 Traffic assignment
Figure 1:
Introduction
• This model’s starting point is calculating the number of trips generated by
or attracted to each zone using the primary input (data from travel surveys
from census data).
• (Newer) methods for travel demand modeling in which we model
individual trip makers’ behaviors and activities in a disaggregated manner.
• These methods that use activity-based models predict travel demand
based on a the notion that travel or trip making stems from the demand
for accomplishing personal activities during the day (for example, work,
school, personal business, on so forth) and people try to chain or connect
these activities to make trip chain .
• Travel diaries (tours) are one source of such information
Trip Generation
• Estimating trip generation rates starting from the point of origin and
attraction to a destination is one of the most important components
of travel demand modeling.
• The aggregate number of trips generated in or attracted to an area
depends on many variables, such as social, economic, geographic, and
land-use factors.
• A comprehensive analysis of travel demand should include trip
generation and attraction for different zones.
• Trip generation help predict the number of trips for different
purposes generated by and attracted to every zone in a study area.
Trip generation
• The number of trip ends – the sum of all trips entering and leaving a
area or zone over a certain period of time – can be calculated in the
trip generation step.
• As discussed in previous chapters, most human activities require land
use.
• We divide the land based on different uses and activities.
• Despite recent remote work trends, most people do not live and work
in the same area.
• The distribution of activities (like job centers) can help us to
understand daily travel patterns.
Factors or Conditions affect trip generation
• Several studies have examined factors that are now accepted:
income, auto ownership, family size, or density.
• On a zonal level analysis, population, number of jobs, and availability
of modes can affect trip generation.
• The type and size of retail stores also affect the number of trips. So,
in general, the type and intensity of land use are essential factors in a
trip generation.
• Moreover, the dominant travel mode that the population uses for
daily trips is also an essential consideration for trip generation
because the transportation mode can determine the distribution of
services, employment centers, and the city’s structure and boundary.
Hypothetical cities with
different transportation modes
Contributors to trip generation
• Land-use types
• Land-use Intensity
• Location/accessibility
• Travel time
• Travel mode (transit, auto, walking …)
• Households’ income level
• Auto ownership rate
• Workers per household
Trip Generation Calibration
• We must divide the study area into Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) connected
via transportation networks and facilities to perform an accurate traffic
analysis associated with human activities in a region or city.
• For an accurate estimation of trip generation and attractions, we must
consider to:
1. Determine the region’s population and the employment rate for the
forecasting year to know the total amount of interactions and estimate
possible future patterns.
2. Allocate population and economic activities to TAZs to prepare the study
area for modeling framework.
3. Select the significant variables and a proper method for creating the
travel demand model (trip generation step). This step can be called
model specification.
Calibration of the model
• Calibration is a crucial step in travel demand modeling because it
verifies the accuracy of the model for a specific region and matches
predicted outcomes with observed data.
• Key concepts
1. Trip - is defined as a one-way person movement by a mechanized
mode of transport. A trio generally has two trip ends.
2. Origin & Destination: Each trip starts at one location or zone and
ends at another location or zone. The starting point or zone is called
the “origin,” and the ending point or zone is called the
“destination.”
Key concepts
3. Trip production: refers to the origin of trips in the study area. Since
most trips originate at the home end, trip production can also be the
home end of home-based trips. Trip attraction is the destination end of
a trip, and for the same reason as the trip generation, trip attraction is
the non-home end of home-based trips.
4. Trip generation rates: the trip generation model uses annual or daily
trip generation rates calculated based on human activities, population,
and employment stats. We can estimate trip generation rates by
calculating the average weekday peak-hour trips generated by a
particular land use. The trip generation rate for each land-use type is
the total number of weekday peak-hour trips.
Key concepts
• Pass-by trips: trips for which the destination is not a final but a stop
along the way by using the connecting roads. Passing-by traffic
volume in a zone depends on development types, size, or available
activities. A gas station near a rich employment center may receive
many pass-by trips for gas compared to other gas stations (where up
to 50 % of all trips to a service station are travelers passing by rather
than peo.
• Link-diverted trips: trips produced from the traffic flow in the
adjacent area of the trip generator that needs diversion. This new
traffic will be accumulated in the roadways close to the site.ple who
made a special trip to the gas station)
Categories of Trips
• Identify a wide range of trip categories and have disaggregate results
by trip purposes. In transportation analysis, trips are typically
classified based on the location of the origin and destination:
1. Home-based work (HBW). These trips usually happen in the
morning (to work) and in the evening (from work to home).
2. Home -based-non-work (HBNW). Sometimes this trip purpose is
called home-based other (HBO). Examples of these are going to
services like a restaurant or hospital.
3. If neither the origin nor the destination is home, we can classify the
trip as a non-home-based (NHB) purpose. One typical example is a
lunch break trip to a shopping mall from the workplace.
Other complex trips
FSM and activity-based modeling framework
for different trip purposes
• Moreover, trip makers’ socio-economic characteristics and behaviors
can help classify trips. Some of these factors are very influential on
travel behavior (Giuliano, 2003; Jahanshahi et al., 2009; Mauch &
Taylor, 1997).
• The following are the factors usually employed in FSM:
• a. Income Level: Poor, Middle Class, Rich
• b. Car Ownership: 0,1,2,3,…,n
• c. Household Size: 1,2,3,4,…,n
FSM (FOUR STEP MODELLING) MODELING UNITS

• Traditional travel demand models like FSM need to have a geographic

unit of analysis for modeling due to the aggregate approach they
have.
• These units or zones are usually delineated based on similarities in
socio-economic factors.
• These Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) are the most common system.
• Generally, the trip generation step requires two types of data –
1. Household-based and
2. zonal-based
FSM units
• Household-based data is more suitable for cross-classification analysis,
and
• Zonal-based data is more applicable for regression method analysis (the
following
• The zonal analysis consists of areas divided into smaller units (zones), using
which an estimate of trips generated in each zone is obtained (aggregate
model) sections will discuss these methods).
• Household-based analysis decomposes zones into smaller units based on
households with similar characteristics.
• As said, a zone is an area with homogeneous characteristics of land use,
population, income, vehicle ownership, and the same access path outside
of the zone.
Growth Factor Modelling
• A straightforward approach for estimating future trip generation
volumes is to determine trends from the past into the future based
on a linear trend of effective factors such as population or income.
• This method past growth into the future by assuming the growth rate
as csimply extrapolates onstant between two historical points.
• We can use this method when trip production and attraction in the
base year is available, but the cost function (like travel time) is not.
• This model is insensitive to distance between zones, which is an
unrealistic feature.
Growth Factor Modelling
• In this model, the future number of trips equals the number of
current trips times the growth factor,
• Equation (1) is the method’s mathematical format
Ti = fiti …………………..equation 1
Where:
• Ti is the number of trips in the zone in the forecasting year
• ti is the current number of trips in that zone
• fi is a growth factor
Growth factor modelling
• The growth factor itself consists of a number of explanatory variables that we
acknowledge have impact on trip generation such as population, income (I), and
ownership (V). To calculate a single growth factor with all these variables, the
below equation is useful:

where:
• Pi d is the population in the design year
• Pi c is the population in the current year
• Ii d is the income level in the design year
• Ii c is the income level in the current year
• Vi d is the vehicle ownership rate in the design year
• Vi c is the vehicle ownership rate in the current year
Example 1:
In a small neighborhood, 630 households reside, out of which 300
households have cars and 330 are without cars. Assuming population
and income remain constant, and all households have one car in the
forecasting year, calculate the total trips generated in the forecasting
year and the growth factor (trip generation rate for 1-car: 2.8; 0-
car:1.1). Assume that a zone has 275 households with cars and 275
without cars, and the average trip generation rates for the two groups
are 5.0 and 2.5 trips per day. Assuming all households will have a car in
the future, find the growth factor and the future generated trips from
that zone, keeping population and income constant.
Solution Example 1
Solution:
Current trip rate ti=300 × 2.8 + 330 × 1.1 = ? (Trips/day)

Growth factor Fi=Vdi/Vci=630/300= ?

Number of future trips Ti = Fiti = 2.1 × 1203 = ? (Trips / day)

 REGRESSION ANALYSIS
• The starting point in the trip generation process is identifying the
input for the model and collecting the socio-demographic information
that typically explain trip generation rates of households or
individuals.
• There are three general methods for trip generation estimations:
regression methods, cross-classification models (tables), and rates
based on activity units (ITE).
• We classify populations or zones using the socio-economic data into
different groups (like low-income, middle-income, and high-income
households)
Regression Analysis Model
• The prediction model has a zone’s trip production or attraction as a
dependent variable, and independent variables are socio-economic
data aggregated by zone. Below, we illustrate a general formula for
the regression type analysis:
Trip Production= f (median family income, residential density,
mean number of automobiles per household)
• The estimation method in this regression analysis is OLS (Ordinary
Least Squares).
• A major shortcoming associated with this model is that aggregate
data may not reflect the precise effect of data on trip production
Regression Analysis Model
• For instance, individuals in two zones with an identical vehicle
ownership rate may have very different access levels to private cars,
thus having different trip productions.
• The cross-classification model described in the next section helps
address this limitation (McNally, 2007).
• Equation (4) shows the typical mathematical format of the trip
generation regression model:
Ti = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + …+aixi+… + akxk (3)
• where Xi is the independent variable and ai is the associated
coefficient.
Example 2
• In a residential zone, trip production is assumed to be explained by
the vehicle ownership rate of households. For each household type,
the trip-making rates are shown in Table 2(Sample vehicle ownership
data for trip generation). Using this information, derive a fitted line.
 Solution Example 2
• The linear equation will have the form: y = bx + a.
Where: y is the trip rate, and x is the household vehicle ownership,
and a and b are the coefficients. For a best fit, b is given by the
equation:
Solution example 2
• Based on the input table, we have:
• Σx = 3 × 1 + 3 × 2 + 3 × 3 + 3 × 4 = 30
Σx2 = 3 × (12) + 3 × (22) + 3 × (32) + 3 × (42) = 90
Σy = 8 + 14 + 21 + 28 = 71
Σxy = 1 × 1 + 1 × 1 + 1 × 3 + 1 × 3 + 2 × 3 + 2 × 4
• y‾ = 71/12 = 5.91
x‾ = 30/12 = 2.5
b = (nΣxy − ΣxΣy)/[(nΣx2 − (Σx)2]
=((12 × 209) − (30 × 71))/((12 × 90) − (30)2) = 2.1
a = y‾ − b x‾ = 5.91 – 2.1 × 2.5 = +0.66
• y= 2.1X + 0.66
LECTURE 3
TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION, AND ASSIGNMENT
INTRODUCTION

• It focuses on the procedure that distributes the trips generated from or attracted to
each zone in the study area.
• In this step, the trip distribution input is the trip generation step’s output and the
interzonal transportation costs.
• Based on the concepts of the gravity model, the trip flows between each pair of zones
can be calculated as an OD matrix.
• The chapter discusses essential concepts and techniques, such as growth factors and
calibration methods.
 INTRODUCTION

• In other words, trip distribution translates the findings of the first step into an extensive matrix of
origins and destinations in terms of TAZs. It identifies each pair’s travel impedance (such as travel
time or cost).
• The figure 1. below shows trip distribution inputs and outputs
• In terms of methodology, we use several basic methods for the trip distribution step, such as
the gravity model, growth factor models, and intervening opportunities.
• However, the gravity model is the most common one, based on the rationales described in this
chapter.
FIGURE 1
INTRODUCTION

• Trip distribution is the second step of FSM, through which we appropriate trip productions to
all other zones.
• The results would form a matrix presenting the number of intrazonal and interzonal trips in a
single table.
• The level of attractiveness of a zone depends on several factors..
1. Uniqueness: This factor indicates how unique a service or employment center is and thus
attracts more trips regardless of distance.
2. Distance: the distance between two zones plays an impedance role, meaning that the further
the two zones are from each other, the fewer trips will be distributed between them.
INTRODUCTION

• Closeness to other services: we assume that wherever is more approximate to other

attractive services will attract more trips within an urban area.
• Urban or rural area: We assume that whether the zone is urban or rural, the
attraction rate for the zone would be different when controlling for other factors.
METHODOLOGY

With a general understanding of the factors affecting trip distribution from origin and
destination, we can now proceed with an introduction to methodology.
• Uniqueness: This factor indicates how unique a service or employment center is and
thus attracts more trips regardless of distance.
• Distance: the distance between two zones plays an impedance role, meaning that the
further the two zones are from each other, the fewer trips will be distributed between
them.
METHODOLOGY

• Closeness to other services: we assume that wherever is more approximate to other

attractive services will attract more trips within an urban area.
• Urban or rural area: We assume that whether the zone is urban or rural, the
attraction rate for the zone would be different when controlling for other factors.
GRAVITY MODEL

• Most common method for Trip distribution is the gravity model.

• Gravity models are easy to understand yet very accurate, and they can also accommodate
different factors such as population, employment, socio-demographics, and tran
• In contrast, the growth factor model needs additional data about trip distribution in the
base year and an estimate of the number of future trips in each zone, which is only sometimes
available sportation systems.
• The foundation of this model is that the number of trips between two zones is directly
related to the total number of trip attractions in the destination and is inversely proportional
to a function cost represented by travel time or cost needed to travel between two zones
GRAVITY MODEL

• The formula gets its name from Newton’s law of gravity, which states that the
attractiveness between two bodies is related to their mass (positively) and also to the
distance between them (negatively) (Verlinde, 2011).
• In our case, the masses are trip generation and attraction and the time distance traveled
or travel cost.
• While using the gravity model is straightforward, the major challenge is finding the
best value for the impedance factor.
• This value is very contextual and varies in different conditions.
GRAVITY MODEL

• Trips between TAZ1 and TAZ2=Trips prodduced in TAZ1*(Attractiveness of TAZ2 /Attractiveness

of all TAZs …… (1)
• As equation (1) shows, the total trips between zones are equal to the products of the
trips produced in a zone, a ratio of the attractiveness of the destination zone, and the
total attractiveness of all zones.
• We can represent the gravity model in several different ways. Remodifying equation
(1), gravity model is written as:-
 GRAVITY MODEL EQUATION

• Where Tripsij is the number of trips between zone i and zone j, Productionsi is trip production in
zone i, Attractionsj is total trips attracted to zone j, FFij is the friction factor (travel impedance)
between i and j, and Kij are the socio-economic factors of zones i and j. These values will be
elaborated later in this chapter.
• From the above equations, the mathematical format of gravity model can be seen in equation (3):
GRAVITY MODEL EQUATION

where:
Tij = number of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted
to zone j
Pi = total number of trips produced in zone i
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = a value which is an inverse function of travel time
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij
As you know, we determine Pi and Aj values through the trip
generation process.
FRICTION FACTOR

• The friction factor or impedance factor is a value that can be varied for different trip
purposes because, with the FSM model, we assume that travel behavior depends on trip
purpose.
• Impedance captures the elements of the spatial separation of two zones, represented as travel
time or travel cost.
• Friction factors can be estimated using different measures. A simple measure of friction factor
is the travel time between the zones.
• Another method is to adopt an exponential formula in which the friction factor is
1/exp(m × tij).
 FRICTION FACTOR
• The impedance factor reflects the difficulty of traveling between two zones.
• The friction factor is higher for easier accessibility between two zones and would be zero if no
individual is willing to travel between two zones.
• In the process of friction factor estimation, there is also a calibration step.
• For calibration, trip generation and attraction values are distributed between O-D pairs using the
gravity model.
• Next, we compare the number of trips with a particular amount of time to the results of the O-D
survey (observed data)
FIGURE 2: FRICTION FACTOR DISTRIBUTION BY
TRIP PURPOSE
FRICTION FACTOR

• In very general terms, a friction factor Fij that is an inverse function of travel impedance
Wij is used in trip distribution to plug in the travelers’ willingness to travel between
zone i and zone j.
K-FACTOR

• In travel demand modeling, several socio-economic factors influence travel behavior and
• The most cardinal factors in travel demand modeling can be income, auto
ownership, multimodal system availability, age, or job type (Pan et al., 2020). demand for
different purposes.
• The k-factor developed and plugged into the gravity model represents variation in socio-
economic factors and helps adjust interzonal trips accordingly.
• The K-factor is determined and plugged into the gravity formula to accommodate such
differences.
K-FACTOR

• We can determine K values in the calibration process by comparing the estimated results
and observed data for the base year.
• K numeric value will be above one if the socio-economic factors contribute t
• Figure 3 shows the mean number of trips for different age groups (K-factor) and various
trip purposes.
• Accordingly, calculating friction factors and K-factors for different purposes and socio-
economic groups yields a better fit to the datao more travel and below one if otherwise.
FIGURE 3
EXAMPLE 1

Let a small area have three zones (TAZs). Table 11.1 shows the trip
generation results for each zone, and Table 11.2 shows the travel time for
each pair of zones. Additionally, the friction factor is also given in this
example as a function of travel time in Table 11.3. The intrazonal travel time
for zone 1 is larger than those of most other inter-zone times because of
the geographical characteristics of the zone and lack of access within the
area. Using this information, please calculate the number of trips for each
pair of zones.
SOLUTION

For calculating trip distribution between these three zones, we

use the trip generation and attraction table computed in the first
step of the FSM model as input data and then use the gravity
model for calculation.Table 11.1, 11.2, and 11.3 represent the
trip generated and attracted for each zone, travel time between
each pair of zones, and friction factor derived from the travel
time.
SOLUTION
SOLUTION
SOLUTION
SOLUTION

• Now with this information, we can start the calculation process. First, we have to
estimate the attractiveness of each zone using the equation (1)
• For example, for zone 1 we have:
• Attractiveness1= 210*26=5460
• Attractiveness2= 270*35=9450
• Attractiveness3= 350*35=12250
• Now, we use the pivotal formula of the gravity model (equation 2). Accordingly, we have
(K-factor set to 1):
SOLUTION
SOLUTION
SOLUTION
SOLUTION 1

• However, our calculations’ results do not match the already

existing and observed data. The mentioned mismatch is why
calibration and balancing of the matrix are needed. In other
words, we must perform more than one iteration of the model
to generate more accurate results.
GROWTH FACTOR MODEL

• After successfully calibrating and validating the data we have estimated, we can also apply the
gravity model to forecast future travel behavior or travel pattern in our study area.
• Using the change in land-use data, socioeconomic data, or any other changes in the whole
system, we can predict future trip distributions. We can calculate Trip distribution from the O-
D table for either base or forecasting year when the friction factor and K-factor data are
unavailable or unsatisfactorily calibrated.
• Depending on historical trends and data, growth factor models are limited if an observed O-D
table is unavailable. Similar to the trip generation step, growth factor models cannot
incorporate updated travel time as the change in travel time between zones can highly affect
travel patterns
 GROWTH FACTOR MODEL

• One of the most common mathematical formulas of the growth factor model is the Fratar
method, shown in equation (4)
• Tij =number of trips estimated from zone to zone
ti =present trip generation in zone
Gx =growth factor of zone
Ti =future trip generation in zone
tix =number of trips between zone and other zones
tij =present trips between zone and zone
Gj =growth factor of zone
• The following section will discuss an example illustrating the application of the Fratar method.
EXAMPLE 2

• In this example, let our study area consist of four TAZs, and Table 11.5 is showing the
current trip distributions. Assuming that the growth rate for each TAZ is as Table 11.6
shows, calculate the number of trips between each two TAZs in the future year.
EXAMPLE 2

• For this problem, we should use the Fratar Method. During this method, it is also very
important that we will have two estimations for each pair. These values should be
averaged, and the new value would be the final Tij.
• Based on the formula, calculations are as follows:
SOLUTION EXMPLE2

• Based on the formula, calculations are as follows:

SOLUTION EX2
SOLUTION EX2
 SOLUTION EX2 EXPLANATION
As table (11.7) illustrates, we estimate the future trip rates between
zones using the Fratar formula. However, the problem is that the
estimated total number of trips generated in each zone is not equal
to the actual trip generation. Thus, a second iteration is needed here.
In the second iteration, the new O-D matrix serves as the input,
based on which we calculate new growth ratios. We expect a trip
generation to occur in five years, and the trip generation is estimated
in the preceding calculation. As an exercise, please conduct as many
iterations as needed to bring the estimated and actual trip
generations into a close alignment.
EXAMPLE 3

In a hypothetical area, we are interested to know how many trips from a university campus
that generated about 2,000 trips per day are attracted by three different shopping malls at
various distances from the campus. In Figure 11.4, the hypothetical area, the number of trips
generated by campus, and the total number of trips attracted for each zone are presented:
FIGURE EXAMPLE 3
EXAMPLE 3

• socioeconomic adj. Factor K=1.0

• Calibration factor C=2.0
SOLUTION
As the first step, we need to calculate the friction factor for each pair of zones based on
travel time (t). Given is the following formula with which we calculate friction factor:

• Using the friction factor, we use the gravity model to calculate the relative attractiveness
of each zone.
• In Table 11.8 , you can see how calculations are being carried out for each zone.
SOLUTION EX 3
SOLUTION EXAMPLE 3
SOLUTION EX 3

• Next, with having relative attractiveness of each zone (or probability of attracting trips),
we plug in the trip generation rate for the campus (6,000) to finally estimate the number
of trips attracted from the campus to each zone.
SOLUTION EX 3

Fig shows the final results.

 Lecture 3
Traffic distribution, and assignment
Introduction
• It focuses on the procedure that distributes the trips generated from
or attracted to each zone in the study area.
• In this step, the trip distribution input is the trip generation step’s
output and the interzonal transportation costs.
• Based on the concepts of the gravity model, the trip flows between
each pair of zones can be calculated as an OD matrix.
• The chapter discusses essential concepts and techniques, such as
growth factors and calibration methods.
Introduction
• In other words, trip distribution translates the findings of the first
step into an extensive matrix of origins and destinations in terms of
TAZs. It identifies each pair’s travel impedance (such as travel time or
cost).
• The figure 1. below shows trip distribution inputs and outputs
• In terms of methodology, we use several basic methods for the trip
distribution step, such as the gravity model, growth factor models,
and intervening opportunities.
• However, the gravity model is the most common one, based on the
rationales described in this chapter.
Figure 1
Introduction
• Trip distribution is the second step of FSM, through which we appropriate
trip productions to all other zones.
• The results would form a matrix presenting the number of intrazonal and
interzonal trips in a single table.
• The level of attractiveness of a zone depends on several factors..
1. Uniqueness: This factor indicates how unique a service or employment
center is and thus attracts more trips regardless of distance.
2. Distance: the distance between two zones plays an impedance role,
meaning that the further the two zones are from each other, the fewer trips
will be distributed between them.
Introduction
• Closeness to other services: we assume that wherever is more
approximate to other attractive services will attract more trips within
an urban area.
• Urban or rural area: We assume that whether the zone is urban or
rural, the attraction rate for the zone would be different when
controlling for other factors.
Methodology
With a general understanding of the factors affecting trip distribution
from origin and destination, we can now proceed with an introduction
to methodology.
• Uniqueness: This factor indicates how unique a service or
employment center is and thus attracts more trips regardless of
distance.
• Distance: the distance between two zones plays an impedance role,
meaning that the further the two zones are from each other, the
fewer trips will be distributed between them.
Methodology
• Closeness to other services: we assume that wherever is more
approximate to other attractive services will attract more trips within
an urban area.
• Urban or rural area: We assume that whether the zone is urban or
rural, the attraction rate for the zone would be different when
controlling for other factors.
GRAVITY MODEL
• Most common method for Trip distribution is the gravity model.
• Gravity models are easy to understand yet very accurate, and they can also
accommodate different factors such as population, employment, socio-
demographics, and tran
• In contrast, the growth factor model needs additional data about trip
distribution in the base year and an estimate of the number of future trips
in each zone, which is only sometimes available sportation systems.
• The foundation of this model is that the number of trips between two
zones is directly related to the total number of trip attractions in the
destination and is inversely proportional to a function cost represented by
travel time or cost needed to travel between two zones
Gravity Model
• The formula gets its name from Newton’s law of gravity, which states
that the attractiveness between two bodies is related to their mass
(positively) and also to the distance between them (negatively)
(Verlinde, 2011).
• In our case, the masses are trip generation and attraction and the
time distance traveled or travel cost.
• While using the gravity model is straightforward, the major challenge
is finding the best value for the impedance factor.
• This value is very contextual and varies in different conditions.
Gravity Model
• Trips between TAZ1 and TAZ2=Trips prodduced in
TAZ1*(Attractiveness of TAZ2 /Attractiveness of all TAZs …… (1)
• As equation (1) shows, the total trips between zones are equal to the
products of the trips produced in a zone, a ratio of the attractiveness
of the destination zone, and the total attractiveness of all zones.
• We can represent the gravity model in several different ways.
Remodifying equation (1), gravity model is written as:-
Gravity model equation
• Where Tripsij is the number of trips between zone i and zone j,
Productionsi is trip production in zone i, Attractionsj is total trips
attracted to zone j, FFij is the friction factor (travel impedance)
between i and j, and Kij are the socio-economic factors of
zones i and j. These values will be elaborated later in this chapter.
• From the above equations, the mathematical format of gravity model
can be seen in equation (3):
Gravity Model Equation

where:
Tij = number of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted
to zone j
Pi = total number of trips produced in zone i
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = a value which is an inverse function of travel time
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij
As you know, we determine Pi and Aj values through the trip
generation process.
Friction Factor
• The friction factor or impedance factor is a value that can be varied
for different trip purposes because, with the FSM model, we assume
that travel behavior depends on trip purpose.
• Impedance captures the elements of the spatial separation of two
zones, represented as travel time or travel cost.
• Friction factors can be estimated using different measures. A simple
measure of friction factor is the travel time between the zones.
• Another method is to adopt an exponential formula in which the
friction factor is
1/exp(m × tij).
Friction Factor
• The impedance factor reflects the difficulty of traveling between two
zones.
• The friction factor is higher for easier accessibility between two zones
and would be zero if no individual is willing to travel between two
zones.
• In the process of friction factor estimation, there is also a calibration
step.
• For calibration, trip generation and attraction values are distributed
between O-D pairs using the gravity model.
• Next, we compare the number of trips with a particular amount of
time to the results of the O-D survey (observed data)
Figure 2: Friction factor distribution by trip purpose
Friction Factor
• In very general terms, a friction factor Fij that is an inverse function of
travel impedance Wij is used in trip distribution to plug in the
travelers’ willingness to travel between zone i and zone j.
K-factor
• In travel demand modeling, several socio-economic factors influence
travel behavior and
• The most cardinal factors in travel demand modeling can be income,
auto ownership, multimodal system availability, age, or job type (Pan
et al., 2020). demand for different purposes.
• The k-factor developed and plugged into the gravity model represents
variation in socio-economic factors and helps adjust interzonal trips
accordingly.
• The K-factor is determined and plugged into the gravity formula to
accommodate such differences.
K-factor
• We can determine K values in the calibration process by comparing
the estimated results and observed data for the base year.
• K numeric value will be above one if the socio-economic factors
contribute t
• Figure 3 shows the mean number of trips for different age groups (K-
factor) and various trip purposes.
• Accordingly, calculating friction factors and K-factors for different
purposes and socio-economic groups yields a better fit to the datao
more travel and below one if otherwise.
Figure 3
Example 1
Let a small area have three zones (TAZs). Table 11.1 shows the trip
generation results for each zone, and Table 11.2 shows the travel time
for each pair of zones. Additionally, the friction factor is also given in
this example as a function of travel time in Table 11.3. The intrazonal
travel time for zone 1 is larger than those of most other inter-zone
times because of the geographical characteristics of the zone and lack
of access within the area. Using this information, please calculate the
number of trips for each pair of zones.
 SECOND STEP OF FOUR STEP MODELING (TRIP DISTRIBUTION)

Abstract

This chapter describes the second step of the four-step travel demand modeling or trip
distribution. It focuses on the procedure that distributes the trips generated from or attracted to
each zone in the study area. In this step, the trip distribution input is the trip generation step’s
output and the interzonal transportation costs. Based on the concepts of the gravity model, the
trip flows between each pair of zones can be calculated as an OD matrix. The chapter discusses
essential concepts and techniques, such as growth factors and calibration methods.
Learning Objectives
Student Learning Outcomes

 Explain trip distribution and how to relate it to the first step (trip generation) results.
 Summarize the factors that determine the level of attractiveness of zones in a travel demand model.
 Summarize and compare different methods for trip distribution estimation within FSM.
 Complete the trip distribution step by balancing total trip productions and attractions after the trip
distribution step.

Exercises
Prep/quiz/assessments

 What factors affect the attractiveness of the zones in trip distribution, and what input data is needed to
measure such attractiveness?
 What are the advantages and disadvantages of the three trip distribution methods (gravity model,
intervening opportunities, and Fratar model)?
 What are the friction factor and K-factor in trip distribution, and how do they help to calibrate model
results?
 How should we balance trip attraction and production after performing trip distribution? Explain.

11.1 INTRODUCTION

In this chapter, we will discuss trip distribution as the second step of FSM. We estimated trip
generation and attractions for a study area from the first step of FSM. In the second step, we use
these results as input for the trip distribution estimations. The outputs from the second step are
also called O/D pairs (Tij) and show us the number of trips between zone I (origin) and
zone J (destination) (Levine, 2010). In other words, trip distribution translates the findings of the
first step into an extensive matrix of origins and destinations in terms of TAZs. It identifies each
pair’s travel impedance (such as travel time or cost). Figure 11.1 shows what the input and
outputs of this step of the model are, using impedance functions.
Figure 11.1 Trip distribution inputs and outputs Adapted from: NHI, 2005

The main question this step tries to answer is what portion of trips produced in or attracted to a
zone would go to each of the other zones?

In terms of methodology, we use several basic methods for the trip distribution step, such as
the gravity model, growth factor models, and intervening opportunities. However, the gravity
model is the most common one, based on the rationales described in this chapter.

Before delving into the methods for estimating trip distribution, it is essential to explore some of
the basic and principal components of trip distribution steps. We must note that these
components are independent of the framework or the methodology, and we must prepare them
regardless of the method we adopt for trip distribution estimation.

As mentioned, trip distribution is the second step of FSM, through which we appropriate trip
productions to all other zones. The results would form a matrix presenting the number of
intrazonal and interzonal trips in a single table (Lincoln MPO, 2011).

The level of attractiveness of a zone depends on several factors (Cesario, 1973):

 Uniqueness: This factor indicates how unique a service or employment center is and thus attracts
more trips regardless of distance.
 Distance: the distance between two zones plays an impedance role, meaning that the further the
two zones are from each other, the fewer trips will be distributed between them.
 Closeness to other services: we assume that wherever is more approximate to other attractive
services will attract more trips within an urban area.
 Urban or rural area: We assume that whether the zone is urban or rural, the attraction rate for
the zone would be different when controlling for other factors.

In addition to the attractiveness factors of the destination, the emissivity of the origin is also a
determining factor, usually represented by population, employment, or income (Cesario, 1973).

With a general understanding of the factors affecting trip distribution from origin and
destination, we can now proceed with an introduction to methodology.

 Uniqueness: This factor indicates how unique a service or employment center is and thus attracts
more trips regardless of distance.
 Distance: the distance between two zones plays an impedance role, meaning that the further the
two zones are from each other, the fewer trips will be distributed between them.
 Closeness to other services: we assume that wherever is more approximate to other attractive
services will attract more trips within an urban area.
 Urban or rural area: We assume that whether the zone is urban or rural, the attraction rate for
the zone would be different when controlling for other factors.

In addition to the attractiveness factors of the destination, the emissivity of the origin is also a
determining factor, usually represented by population, employment, or income (Cesario, 1973).

With a general understanding of the factors affecting trip distribution from origin and
destination, we can now proceed with an introduction to methodology.

11.2 GRAVITY MODEL

As we discussed, the most common method appropriate for trip distribution is the gravity model.
Gravity models are easy to understand yet very accurate, and they can also accommodate
different factors such as population, employment, socio-demographics, and transportation
systems. That said, almost all U.S. Departments of Transportation widely use gravity models. In
contrast, the growth factor model needs additional data about trip distribution in the base year
and an estimate of the number of future trips in each zone, which is only sometimes available
(Meyer, 2016).

The foundation of this model is that the number of trips between two zones is directly related to
the total number of trip attractions in the destination and is inversely proportional to a function
cost represented by travel time or cost needed to travel between two zones (Council, 2006). The
formula gets its name from Newton’s law of gravity, which states that the attractiveness between
two bodies is related to their mass (positively) and also to the distance between them (negatively)
(Verlinde, 2011). In our case, the masses are trip generation and attraction and the time distance
traveled or travel cost. While using the gravity model is straightforward, the major challenge is
finding the best value for the impedance factor. This value is very contextual and varies in
different conditions.

Equation (1) shows the fundamental equation of trip distribution:

Trips between TAZ1 and TAZ2=Trips prodduced in TAZ1*(Attractiveness of TAZ2

/Attractiveness of all TAZs (1)

As equation (1) shows, the total trips between zones are equal to the products of the trips
produced in a zone, a ratio of the attractiveness of the destination zone, and the total
attractiveness of all zones. We can represent the gravity model in several different ways.
Remodifying equation (1), the gravity model can be rewritten as:

Tripsij=Productionsi*(Attractionsj*FFij*kij/∑Attractionsj*FFij*kij) (2)

Where Tripsij is the number of trips between zone i and zone j, Prouctionsi is trip production in
zone i, Attractionsj is total trips attracted to zone j, FFij is the friction factor (travel impedance)
between i and j, and Kij are the socio-economic factors of zones i and j. These values will be
elaborated later in this chapter.

From the above equations, the mathematical format of gravity model can be seen in equation (3):

where:

Tij = number of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted to zone j

Pi = total number of trips produced in zone i

Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j

Fij = a value which is an inverse function of travel time

Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij

As you know, we determine Pi and Aj values through the trip generation process. As shown in
Chapter 10, the sum of all productions and attractions should be equal (PE, 2017). Numerous
studies have indicated that people value their travel time differently for different trip purposes
(like work trips vs. recreational trips) (Hansen, 1962; Allen, 1984; Thill & Kim, 2005).
Accordingly, it is rational to compute the gravity model for each trip purpose with different
friction factors (Meyer, 2016).
11.2.1 Friction Factor

The friction factor or impedance factor is a value that can be varied for different trip purposes
because, with the FSM model, we assume that travel behavior depends on trip purpose.
Impedance captures the elements of the spatial separation of two zones, represented as travel
time or travel cost. Friction factors can be estimated using different measures. A simple measure
of friction factor is the travel time between the zones. Another method is to adopt an exponential
formula in which the friction factor is 1/exp(m × tij). Gamma distributions with scaling factors
can also be employed to estimate distribution (Cambridge Systematics, 2010; Meyer, 2016).

The impedance factor reflects the difficulty of traveling between two zones. The friction factor is
higher for easier accessibility between two zones and would be zero if no individual is willing to
travel between two zones. In the process of friction factor estimation, there is also a calibration
step. For calibration, trip generation and attraction values are distributed between O-D pairs
using the gravity model. Next, we compare the number of trips with a particular amount of time
to the results of the O-D survey (observed data). If the numbers do not match, we must perform
the calibration to adjust the friction factor. In the case of using travel time for the impedance
factor, we can represent the relationship between the friction factor and time in the form t-1, t–2,
e– t (Ashford & Covault, 1969). We estimate the friction factor for the entire analysis area.
However, such an assumption is limiting in that impedances like travel costs or time can affect
different households differently. For instance, in a city that implements toll on a specific
highway, low-income people may be unable to allocate their limited resources to pay the price.
On the other hand, those able and willing to pay will use the road. We can also specify friction
factors for different trip purposes. The figure below (Figure 11.2) shows the function of the
friction factor appropriate to the time and for different trip purposes.
Figure 11.2 Friction factor distribution by trip purpose Source: Lincoln MPO, 2011 (Public
domain)

In very general terms, a friction factor Fij that is an inverse function of travel impedance Wij is
used in trip distribution to plug in the travelers’ willingness to travel between zone i and zone j.

Fij=1/Wij

11.2.2 K-FACTOR

In travel demand modeling, several socio-economic factors influence travel behavior and
demand for different purposes. As shown in Chapter 10, the most cardinal factors in travel
demand modeling can be income, auto ownership, multimodal system availability, age, or job
type (Pan et al., 2020). The k-factor developed and plugged into the gravity model represents
variation in socio-economic factors and helps adjust interzonal trips accordingly. For example,
a blue-collar employee working in a low-income suburb may exhibit different travel behaviors
(in terms of mode choice and frequency of travel) compared to a white-collar employee working
in the CBD with a higher payment. The K-factor is determined and plugged into the gravity
formula to accommodate such differences.
Some neighborhoods offer housing and jobs to workers of a certain income level. People who
work in chain restaurants have completely different incomes than those who work in
headquarters in the CBD. In a country like the U.S., these groups are likely to live far from each
other. Also, as we discussed, people of different income levels or social statuses may respond
differently to travel impedances like travel time or cost. We can determine K values in the
calibration process by comparing the estimated results and observed data for the base year
(Tawfik & Rakha, 2012). K numeric value will be above one if the socio-economic factors
contribute to more travel and below one if otherwise (Meyer, 2016). Figure 11.3 shows the mean
number of trips for different age groups (K-factor) and various trip purposes. Accordingly,
calculating friction factors and K-factors for different purposes and socio-economic groups
yields a better fit to the data.

Figure 11.3 Mean

number of trips by purpose and age group Source: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA),
2022 (Public Domain)

11.2.3 Example 1

Let a small area have three zones (TAZs). Table 11.1 shows the trip generation results for each
zone, and Table 11.2 shows the travel time for each pair of zones. Additionally, the friction
factor is also given in this example as a function of travel time in Table 11.3. The intrazonal
travel time for zone 1 is larger than those of most other inter-zone times because of the
geographical characteristics of the zone and lack of access within the area. Using this
information, please calculate the number of trips for each pair of zones.

Solution:

For calculating trip distribution between these three zones, we use the trip generation and
attraction table computed in the first step of the FSM model as input data and then use the
gravity model for calculation. Table 11.1, 11.2, and 11.3 represent the trip generated and
attracted for each zone, travel time between each pair of zones, and friction factor derived from
the travel time.

Table 11.1 Trip Generation Results

TAZ 1 2 3 total

Trips Productions 220 245 305 770

Trip Attractions 210 270 350 770

Table 11.2 Travel Time Matrix

TAZ 1 2 3

1 6 4 2

2 4 5 4

3 2 4 5

Table 11.3 Travel time and

Friction Factor

Travel Time FF

1 82
 Table 11.3 Travel time and
Friction Factor

Travel Time FF

2 52

3 50

4 41

5 35

6 26

7 20

8 13

9 9

10 5

Now with this information, we can start the calculation process. First, we have to estimate the
attractiveness of each zone using the equation (1)

For example, for zone 1 we have:

Attractiveness1= 210*26=5460

Attractiveness2= 210*35=7350

Attractiveness3= 350*35=12250

Now, we use the pivotal formula of the gravity model (equation 2). Accordingly, we have (K-
factor set to 1):
 Table 11.4 Trip distribution results

TAZ 1 2 3 Calculated Observed

1 35 70 115 220 200

2 65 71 108 244 248

3 97 98 109 304 320

Calculated 197 239 332 768 768

Observed 210 288 270 768

However, our calculations’ results do not match the already existing and observed data. The
mentioned mismatch is why calibration and balancing of the matrix are needed. In other words,
we must perform more than one iteration of the model to generate more accurate results. For
performing a double or triple iteration, we use a formula discussed at the end of this chapter
(example adapted from: Garber & Hoel, 2018).

11.3 GROWTH FACTOR MODEL

After successfully calibrating and validating the data we have estimated, we can also apply the
gravity model to forecast future travel behavior or travel pattern in our study area. Using the
change in land-use data, socioeconomic data, or any other changes in the whole system, we can
predict future trip distributions. We can calculate Trip distribution from the O-D table for either
base or forecasting year when the friction factor and K-factor data are unavailable or
unsatisfactorily calibrated. Depending on historical trends and data, growth factor models are
limited if an observed O-D table is unavailable. Similar to the trip generation step, growth factor
models cannot incorporate updated travel time as the change in travel time between zones can
highly affect travel patterns (Qsim, 2016).

One of the most common mathematical formulas of the growth factor model is the Fratar
method, shown in equation (4). Through his method, the future distribution of trips from one
zone is equal to the present distribution multiplied by the growth factor of the destination zone
between now and the forecasting year (Heanue & Pyers, 1966). The formula to calculate future
trip values is shown in equation (4):

where:

Tij =number of trips estimated from zone to zone

ti =present trip generation in zone
Gx =growth factor of zone
Ti =future trip generation in zone
tix =number of trips between zone and other zones
tij =present trips between zone and zone
Gj =growth factor of zone

The following section will discuss an example illustrating the application of the Fratar method.

11.3.1 Example 2

In this example, let our study area consist of four TAZs, and Table 11.5 is showing the current
trip distributions. Assuming that the growth rate for each TAZ is as Table 11.6 shows, calculate
the number of trips between each two TAZs in the future year.
 Table 11.5 Current trip distribution

TAZ A B C

A n/a 300 200

B 150 n/a 100

C 100 200 n/a

Total 250 500 300

Table 11.6 Current trip distribution

TAZ Total Generation Growth Factor Total Generation for Forecasting Year

A 250 1.3 325

B 500 1.5 750

C 300 1.1 330

For this problem, we should use the Fratar Method. During this method, it is also very important
that we will have two estimations for each pair. These values should be averaged, and the new
value would be the final Tij.

Based on the formula, calculations are as follows:

Based on the calculations, the first iteration of the method will yield the following table:

Table 11.7 Estimated trip distribution using Fratar formula

TAZ A B C Estimated Total Generation Actual Total Generations

A n/a 349 103 452 490

B 349 n/a 285 634 600

C 103 285 n/a 388 420

Total 452 500 300

As table (11.7) illustrates, we estimate the future trip rates between zones using the Fratar
formula. However, the problem is that the estimated total number of trips generated in each zone
is not equal to the actual trip generation. Thus, a second iteration is needed here. In the second
iteration, the new O-D matrix serves as the input, based on which we calculate new growth
ratios. We expect a trip generation to occur in five years, and the trip generation is estimated in
the preceding calculation.As an exercise, please conduct as many iterations as needed to bring
the estimated and actual trip generations into a close alignment.
 11.3.2 Example 3

In a hypothetical area, we are interested to know how many trips from a university campus that
generated about 2,000 trips per day are attracted by three different shopping malls at various
distances from the campus. In Figure 11.4, the hypothetical area, the number of trips generated
by campus, and the total number of trips attracted for each zone are presented:

Figure 11.4 Schematic Orientation of Trip Generation zone and Trip Attracting Zones

 socioeconomic adj. Factor K=1.0

 Calibration factor C=2.0

Solution

As the first step, we need to calculate the friction factor for each pair of zones based on travel
time (t). Given is the following formula with which we calculate friction factor:
F1j=tij^(-2)

Next, using the friction factor, we use the gravity model to calculate the relative attractiveness of
each zone. In Table 11.8 , you can see how calculations are being carried out for each zone.

Table 11.8 Calculation of trip distribution (Friction Factor and Relative Attractiveness)

J Aj t1j F1j=tij^(-2) Aj*F1j

1 10 10 1/100=0.01 0.1

2 60 20 1/400=0.0025 0.15

3 80 40 1/1600=0.000625 0.05

Total 0.3

Table 11.9 Calculation of Final trip distribution

J Aj*F1j P1j= T1j= P1*p1j

1 (Eastbrook Mall) 0.1 0.1/0.30=0.333 2,000*0.33=667

2 (Buckland Hill) 0.15 0.15/0.3=0.5 2,000*0.5=1,000

3 (Westfarm Mall) 0.05 0.05/0.3=0.167 2,000*0.167=333

Total 0.3 1 2000

Next, with having relative attractiveness of each zone (or probability of attracting trips), we plug
in the trip generation rate for the campus (6,000) to finally estimate the number of trips attracted
from the campus to each zone. Figure 11.5 shows the final results.

Figure 11.5
Final Results

11.4 MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION

Model validation is an integral part of all simulation and modeling procedures. One of the most
essential steps in FSM modeling is developing a procedure to calibrate its final outputs
(predictions) with actual and observed data. To do this, usually, model parameters are adjusted
so that the observed data and estimations have fewer mismatches (Meyer, 2016). After such
adjustments, the model with calibrated parameters can help in simulation and future scenario
analyses.

After completing the trip distribution step, we compare model calibration and adjustment results
in each category (i.e., by trip purpose) with recorded real-world trips from the O-D survey. If the
two values are not identical, we reassign model parameters like FF or K-factors, and re-run the
gravity model. The process continues until the observed data and estimations are very close
(ratio between 0.9 and 1.1).
The following example shows a process of the trip distribution step with calibration.

11.4.1 Example 4

In this example, we elaborate the procedure of calibration. The starting point in this procedure is
to identify the inputs of the model, which are the outcomes of the trip generation process. The
results from the surveys and actual trip data, travel time between each pair of zones (friction
factor), and socioeconomic conditions between each pair are shown in the following tables
(11.10, 11.11, and 11.12 ).

Table 11.10 Travel Time Matrix

Travel Time Matrix

Zone 1 2 3

1 1 6 11

2 7 3 12

3 15 13 4

Table 11.11 Trip Generation Results

Outcomes of trip generation

Zone P A A’

1 550 440 400

2 600 682 620

3 380 561 510

Table 11.11 Trip Generation Results

Outcomes of trip generation

1530 1683 1530

Table 11.12 FF Matrix

Friction Factors

Zone 1 2 3

1 0.876 1.554 0.77

2 1.554 0.876 0.77

3 0.77 0.77 0.876

Table 11.13 K-factor Matrix

K Factors

Zone 1 2 3

1 1.04 1.15 0.66

2 1.06 0.79 1.14

 Table 11.13 K-factor Matrix

K Factors

3 0.76 0.94 1.16

For the friction factor, as we discussed in previous sections, there are several formulas such
as negative exponential or inverse power function that can be used for calculating friction
factors from the impeding factors like travel cost or time.

In the next step, we use the gravity formula and plug in the inputs for estimating the number of
trips between each pair of zones. Table 11.14 shows the relative attractiveness of each zone, and
Table 11.15 shows the number of trips between each pair of zones.

Table 11.14 Trip Distribution Results

Zone 1 2 3 produced

1 116 352 82 550

2 257 168 175 600

3 74 142 164 380

attracted 447 662 421

400 620 510

Now, by looking to the last table we can see that the total number of trips produced is exactly
matching to the results of the trip generation table. But, the total attractions and actual data have
a mismatch. In the next step, we apply the calibration methods in order to make our final results
more accurate.

Table 11.15 First iteration by row (correct for generation)

Zone 1 2 3 Row F.

1 104 330 100 533 1.031849

2 230 157 212 599 1.001418

3 66 133 199 398 0.955191

400 620 510

In the first iteration of calibration, we have to generate a value called column factor, which is the
result of dividing actual data attraction by estimated attractions. Then we apply this number for
each pair in the same column.

In Table 11.15, we can observe that the sum of attractions is now the same as the actual data, but
the sum of generation amounts is now different from actual data generation. In this step, we
perform another iteration, the same as the first iteration but instead of column factor, we plug in
row factor value, which is the result of dividing actual data trip generation by estimated
generation.

Table 11.16-Second Iteration by Column (Correct for attraction)

Zone 1 2 3

1 107 340 103 550

 Table 11.16-Second Iteration by Column (Correct for attraction)

Zone 1 2 3

2 231 157 212 600

3 63 127 190 380

401 625 505

Col. F 0.998364 0.992373 1.010743

The third iteration is needed because the sum of attraction is different with the actual data once
more, and we have to generate another column factor. The results are shown in Table 11.17.

Table 11.17 Third iteration by column (correct for attraction)

Zone 1 2 3

1 107 338 104 548

2 230 156 214 601

3 63 126 192 381

400 620 510

 Based on the third iteration results, we see the attractions are now accurate and trip generations
have very insignificant differences with actual data. At this point, we can stop the calibration.
However, the procedure can continue to calibrate results to decrease the difference as much as
possible. The sensitivity of the calibration, or in other words, the threshold for the row and
column factors, can be adjusted by the modeler.

GLOSSARY

 Uniqueness is a quantity defined for a TAZ that indicates how unique that zone or trip attraction
center is.
 Gamma distribution is a probability distribution that is used for converting travel times into
impedance functions
 Blue-collar employee is a worker who usually performs manual and low-skill duties for their
work.
 White-collar employee is a worker who is high-skill and performs professional, or administrative
work.

Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways

In this chapter, we covered:

 What trip distribution is and the factors that determine attractiveness of zones for travel demand.
 Different modeling frameworks appropriate for trip distribution and their mathematical formulation.
 What advantages and disadvantages of different methods and assumptions in trip distribution are.
 How to perform a trip distribution manually using simplified transportation networks.

REFERENCES

Allen, B. (1984). Trip distribution using composite impedance. Transportation Research

Record, 944, 118–127.

Cambridge Systematics. (2010). Increasing the integration of TDM into the land use and
development process. Fairfax County (Virginia) Department of Transportation, May. Department
of Transportation.
Cesario, F. J. (1973). A generalized trip distribution model. Regional Science Journal, 13(2),
1973-08

Council, A. T. (2006). National guidelines for transport system management in Australia

2006. Australia Transportation
Council.https://www.atap.gov.au/sites/default/files/National_Guidelines_Volume_1.pdf

Garber, N. J., & Hoel, L. A. (2018). Traffic and highway engineering. Cengage Learning.

Hansen, W. G. (1962). Evaluation of gravity model trip distribution procedures. Highway

Research Board Bulletin, 347.

Levine, N. C. (2010). III: A spatial statistics program for the analysis of crime incident locations
(version 3.3). Ned Levine and Associates: Houston TX/National Institute of Justice.

Ned Levine (2015). CrimeStat: A spatial statistics program for the analysis of crime incident
locations (v 4.02). Ned Levine & Associates, Houston, Texas, and the National Institute of
Justice, Washington, D.C. August.

Lincoln MPO. (2011). Lincoln travel demand model. Lincoln Metropolitan Planning
Organization.
(2011). https://www.lincoln.ne.gov/files/sharedassets/public/planning/mpo/projects-amp-
reports/tdm11.pdf

Meyer, M. D. (2016). Transportation planning handbook. John Wiley & Sons.

NHI. (2005). Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting. In National Highway

Administration (Ed.), Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting. American
University.. National Highway Institute : Search for Courses (dot.gov)
 Pan, Q., Jin, Z., & Liu, X. (2020). Measuring the effects of job competition and matching on
employment accessibility. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 87,
102535.

PE Lindeburg, M. R. (2017). PPI FE civil review – A comprehensive FE civil review

manual (First edition). PPI, a Kaplan Company.

Qasim, G. (2015). Travel demand modeling: AL-Amarah city as a case study. [Doctoral
dissertation the Engineering College, University of Baghdad]

Tawfik, A. M., & Rakha, H. A. (2012). Human aspects of route choice behavior: Incorporating
perceptions, learning trends, latent classes, and personality traits in the modeling of driver
heterogeneity in route choice behavior. Virginia Tech Transportation
Institute. https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/handle/10919/55070

Thill, J.-C., & Kim, M. (2005). Trip making, induced travel demand, and accessibility. Journal
of Geographical Systems, 7(2), 229–248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-005-0158-3

Verlinde, E. (2011). On the origin of gravity and the laws of Newton. Journal of High Energy
Physics, 2011(4), 1–27.

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Lecture 4
Traffic stream characteristics
What is a Traffic Stream

 Traffic streams are made up of

– Individual drivers
– Vehicles
– Roadway and environment
 Driver behavior and vehicle characteristics
typically vary
 No two traffic streams will behave exactly in the
same way
Variability in Traffic Stream (1)

 Traffic flow (movement of vehicles) involves variability

– Unlike pipe flow (homogeneous)
 A given traffic flow will vary
– By time
– By space
 Constraints are defined by
– Physical constraints
– Complex driver characteristics
Variability in Traffic Stream (2)

 Although traffic characteristics vary there is a

reasonable range
– Example: In a 65 miles/hr roadway some drivers will
drive 50 miles/hr and some will drive 80 miles/hr
 There exists a range
 Before we study traffic characteristics let us see what are
– Facilities
– Basic flow parameters
 Types of Facilities
Uninterrupted Flow Facilities
– No external interruptions
– Primarily on freeways
– Also on certain segments of long rural highways
– In peak hours also freeways are uninterrupted
Interrupted Flow Facilities
– External interruptions exists
– Most frequent are signals, stop/yield signs
– Creates platoons of vehicles progress in traffic stream
Types of Facilities and Major Difference

 The major difference between two facilities

– Impact of time (no interventions at any time)
– Availability of roadways
• On uninterrupted facilities roadways are available
to users all the time
 But sections of roadway are not available to users
because of traffic control (signal, stop, and yield
signs)
Traffic Stream Parameters
Macroscopic
 Volume
 Speed
 Density
Microscopic
 Speed of individual vehicles
 Headway
 Spacing
Volume

 Traffic volume is defined as the number

of vehicles passing a point on highway or
a given lane or direction of a highway in
a specific time
Unit: vehicles per unit time
 Usually expressed as vehicles / hour
 Denoted as veh/hr
Rate of Flow (q)

 Rate of flow are generally expressed in units of

“veh/hr” but represents flows that exists for period
of time less than an hour.
 Example: 200 vehicles are observed for 15min.
 The equivalent hourly volume will be 800 veh/hr
 Even though 800 veh/hr would not be observed if
one hour was counted
Daily Volumes (1)

Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) –

– The average 24 hour volume at a given location over a full 365 day year.
– avg. 24-hour volume at a site over a full year
Average Annual Weekday Traffic (AAWT) –
– The average 24 hour volume at a given location occurring on weekdays
over a full 365 day year.
– Usually 260 days week days per year
Daily Volumes (2)

Average Daily Traffic (ADT) –

 – The average 24 hour volume at a given location over a defined
time period less than a year

Average Weekday Traffic (AWT)

– The average 24 hour weekday volume at a given location over a
defined period less than one year
Example: Daily Volume
 Hourly Volume

Measured in volume/hour
Used for design and operational purposes
The hour with highest volume is referred as
– Peak hour
Peak hour volume is stated as directional volume
Sometimes referred as Directional Design Hourly
Volume (DDHV)
DDHV

 DDHV = directional design hourly volume

DDHV = AADT * K * D

Where K = proportion of AADT that occurs during design

hour
D = proportion of peak hour traffic traveling in the peak
direction
K-Factor

 Typically, K factor represents proportion of AADT occurring during

30th peak hour of the year
 How does K-factor vary by urban density?
– Urban, suburban, and rural
 D Factors
– More variable than K
– Influenced by development density, radial vs. circumferential
route
K and D Factor
Flow Rate vs. Volume
Volume vs. Flow Rate

 If capacity is 4,200 vph:

Peak Hour Factor
 15 minutes is considered to be minimum period of time over which traffic
can be considered statistically stable
 Peak hour factor (PHF) represents the uniformity of flow in the peak hour.
Peak Hour Factor (2)

 PHF = 4200/(4*1200) = 0.875

Peak Hour Factor (3)

 Peak hour factor lie between 0.25-1

– 0.25 when all traffic is concentrated in one 15 minute
period
– 1.0 when traffic on all 15 minute period are same
 Under very congested conditions PHF~1
 Practical studies show that
– PHF~0.7 for rural roadways
– PHF~0.98 in dense urban roadways
 Speed

 Speed and travel time are inversely related

– S = d/t
– Where S->speed in mi/hr; d->distance traversed in mi;
t-> time to traverse distance d in hr
 Average speed in a traffic stream can be computed in
two ways:
 Time mean speed (TMS) – average speed of all vehicles
passing a point over a specified time period.
 Space mean speed (SMS) – average speed of all
vehicles occupying a given section of roadway over a
specific time period.
TMS and SMS

 Time Mean Speed (TMS)

 Space Mean Speed (SMS)

Where
– d-> distance traversed, ft
– n-> number of observed vehicles
– ti->time for vehicle “i” to traverse the distance d
Example: TMS and SMS
Example: Time Mean vs Space Mean
Speed

 Figure 5.1 Time Mean Speed and Space Mean Speed Illustrated
 TMS = (88n+44n)/(2n) = 66 ft/sec SMS = (88n+44*2n)/(3n) = 58.7ft/sec
Traffic Flow Basics (1)

 Consider a long, uninterrupted, single-lane roadway:

Traffic Flow Basics (2)
Traffic Flow Basics-Speed
Traffic Flow Basics-Trajectories
Traffic Flow Basics-Trajectory Plots
Traffic Flow Basics-Trajectory Plots (2)
Traffic Flow Basics-Volume

 The number of trajectories crossing this line is the number of vehicles passing
a fixed point on the road.
Traffic Flow Basics-Density
Traffic Flow Basics-Density

 The number of trajectories crossing this line is the number of vehicles on the
road at one instant in time
 Density
Most direct measure of traffic demand
Difficult to measure directly
Important measure of quality of traffic flow
Occupancy is related, and can be measured
directly
Occupancy – proportion of time that a detector
is
occupied by a vehicle in a defined time period.
 Density and Occupancy

Figure 5.2 Density and Occupancy Illustrated

HOMEWORK and example

 HWK: Read on space mean, headway, time headway space headway

Example
Given that 40 vehicles pass a given point in 1 minute and traverse a length of 1
kilometer, what is the flow, density, and time headway?
Solution
Compute flow and density:
 Lecture 5
Principles of regional and urban transportation
planning
Introduction
• There is a high concentration of people living in an environment
that is pleasant and provides good social infrastructure through
good physical infrastructure.
• Cities where people are put before cars, and residents, workers
and visitors young and old, can safely walk or cycle to their daily
activities.
• Cities where jobs and services are a bus ride away, and the time
and money spent driving can be used productively elsewhere.
These are the kinds of cities that are attractive to us today.
• Cities with less congestion, less pollution, fewer accidents, and
healthier, safer, more productive communities.
Eight principles
• To achieve this, there are 8 principles which guide our
approach to sustainable transport and development
The 8 Principles for Better Streets and Better Cities
1. WALK – Develop neighborhoods that promote
walking
2. CYCLE – Prioritize non-motorized transport networks
3. CONNECT – Create dense networks of streets and
paths
Eight principles
4. TRANSIT | Locate development near high-quality public
transport
5. MIX | Plan for mixed use
6. DENSIFY | Optimize density and transit capacity
7. COMPACT | Create regions with short commutes
8. SHIFT | Increase mobility by regulating parking and road
use
 Lecture 6
Elements of Maneuver in Areas of Traffic
Elements of design
Theses are common to all classes of highways and streets are several
principal elements of design, which include
• Sight distance,
• Superelevation,
• Traveled way widening,
• Grades, and
• Horizontal and vertical alignments
Sight Distance
• A critical element in assuring safe and efficient operation of a vehicle
on a highway is the ability to see ahead. Sight distance is the distance
along a roadway throughout which an object of specified height is
continuously visible to the driver.
• Sight distance falls into three categories:
1. Stopping (applicable on all highways)
2. Passing (applicable only on two-lane highways)
3. Decision (applicable at complex locations)
Stopping sight distance
• The distance a vehicle travels from the instant the driver sights an
object necessitating a stop to the instant the brakes are applied
(brake reaction distance), and •
• The distance required to stop the vehicle from the instant brake
application begins (braking distance).
• Stopping sight distance is measured from the driver’s eyes, which are
assumed to be 3.5 feet above the pavement, to an object 2 feet high
on the road.
• The safe stopping distances on upgrades are shorter; those on
downgrades are longer
• The sight distance at any point on the highway generally is different in
each direction
Decision Sight Distance
• Provides values for appropriate decision sight distances at critical
locations and for criteria in evaluating the suitability of the sight
lengths at these locations.
Decision sight distance is the distance required for a driver to:
Detect an unexpected or otherwise difficult to perceive information
source or hazard in a roadway environment that may be visually
cluttered.
Recognize the hazard or its threat potential.
Select an appropriate speed and path.
Initiate and complete the required safety maneuver safely and
efficiently.
Areas require decision sight distance
Interchange and intersection locations where unusual or
unexpected maneuvers are required.
Changes in cross section such as toll plazas and lane drops.
Areas of concentrated demand where there is apt to be
"visual noise" whenever sources of information compete,
as those from roadway elements, traffic, traffic control
devices, and advertising signs.
Others include: passing sight distance.
Horizontal Alignment
• Horizontal alignment should provide for safe and continuous
operation of vehicles at a uniform design speed for substantial
lengths of highway.
• Major considerations include:
Topography • Type of facility • Design speed • Profile grade •
Subsurface conditions • Existing highway and cultural development •
Likely future developments • Location of the highway terminals • Right
of way • Safety • Construction costs • Environmental issues •
Geological features • Drainage
Superelevation
• One of the most important factors to consider in highway safety is the
centrifugal force generated when a vehicle traverses a curve.
• Centrifugal force increases as the velocity of the vehicle and/or the
degree of curvature increases.
• To overcome the effects of centrifugal force, curves must be
superelevated.
• It is impossible to balance centrifugal force by superelevation alone,
because for any given curve radius a certain superelevation rate is
exactly correct for only one driving speed
superelevation
• Although superelevation is advantageous for traffic operations,
various factors often combine to make its use impractical in many
built-up areas. Such factors include wide pavement areas; need to
meet the grade of adjacent property; surface drainage considerations;
and frequency of cross streets, alleys and driveways.
• Therefore, horizontal curves on low-speed streets in urban areas are
frequently designed without superelevation, counteracting the
centrifugal force solely with side friction.
Pavement widening (Transitions)
• A pavement transition is the area of variable pavement width
encountered when changing from one roadway width, or section, to
another
• This type of transition should be made only where sight distance is
not restricted such as on a tangent section or on a flat curve.
• On a tangent section, the transition may be accomplished on either
one or both lanes.
• A maximum of 1 degree reversing curves and a minimum total
transition length of 1,000 feet should be used.
• This minimum length shall also apply where the transition is
accomplished on a curve.
Pavement widening (Transitions)
• Design standards of the two lanes should be consistent with those of
the multilane facility.
• Other, more simplified, transitions occur at speed-change lanes, truck
climbing lanes, and widening for curves
• All transitions shall be consistent with the design speed for the
facility.
Grade
• The grade line is a reference line by which the elevation of the
pavement and other features of the highway are established.
• It is controlled mainly by topography and structure clearances, but
the factors of horizontal alignment, safety, sight distance, design
speed, construction costs, and the performance of heavy vehicles on
a grade also must be considered.
• In flat terrain, the elevation of the grade line is often controlled by
drainage considerations.
• In rolling terrain, an undulating grade line is often desirable, both
from a standpoint of construction and maintenance economy
Selecting grade line
In selecting where the grade line is in relation to the axis of rotation for
superelevation, the designer should consider the following:
Future widening.
Mountainous terrain.
Right of way constraints.
Topographic features.
Earthwork.
Matching existing typical sections (as-constructed plans)
Guidelines for detours
• For the purpose of applying these guidelines, a detour is any temporary
routing of traffic off its usual course, including the use of existing alternate
routes or use of modified lane widths on the main roadway.
1. Detour Design Speed - The design speed of a detour should be as close to
the mainline operating speed as possible. Every effort should be made
keep the speed differential within 10 mph so as not to affect the
capacity, although in some cases a maximum of 15 mph or more may be
considered.
2. Detour clear zone - Use the criteria corresponding to the speed,
geometry, and traffic of the existing highway for designing the detour.
Detour culverts should be included in the clear zone analysis
Detours
3. Detour Typical Section
i. Lane width
• Lane Width It is desirable to maintain the width of the main roadway, but if
this is not practical, the following guidelines apply: I.e
A minimum lane width of 10 feet may be used if all of the following
conditions are satisfied:
o The truck annual average daily traffic (AADT) is less than 50.
o The design speed is ≤ 45 mph.
o No curves are greater than 7 degrees.
If one or more of the two above conditions fail, a 11 foot width lane should
be applied.
Detour
Lane width cont..d
• If any of the following conditions apply, 12-foot lanes should be
used:
Design speed of 55 mph or more.
The truck AADT is greater than 300.
The road is an arterial or on an arterial truck network system.
• If main roadway lanes are 11 feet, the detour may retain 11-foot
width.
• Shoulder Width Desirable shoulder width is 4 feet. Two feet
minimum is required.
Detour
ii. Detour Barrier
• Barrier will be required when any hazards exist within the clear zone
including drop-offs or steep slopes. It may also be required for the
protection of workers. Shoulder Dropoffs 3 inches or greater shall be
mitigated within 24 hours.
iii. Detour surfacing - An asphalt surface is usually functionally superior
to gravel, although gravel may have economic and other advantages.
Asphalt should be used if detour speed is over 40 mph or the detour
will be used for three weeks or more
iii. Detour superelevation – consider checking local manual
Detour
• Detour on local roads - When local roads are used in detour routing, the
stabilization needs must be reviewed. If necessary, additional overlay should be
placed to protect the structural integrity of the street.
• The following should be considered:
a) Inter-Governmental Agreement
b) Weight Limits
c) Noise
d) Traffic
e) Schools
f) Environmental considerations – drainage, harzadous waste, marshy lands,
water quality etc.
g) Utilities i.e. water, lighting etc.
 MERU UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
P.O. Box 972-60200 – Meru-Kenya.
Tel: +254(0) 799 529 958, +254(0) 799 529 959, +254 (0)712 524 293
Website: www.must.ac.ke Email: [email protected]

UNIVERSITY EXAMINATIONS 2021/2022

FOUTH YEAR SECOND SEMESTER EXAMINATION FOR THE DEGREE OF

BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

ECT 3450: TRAFFIC ENGINEERING II

DATE: JANUARY 2022 TIME: 2 HOURS

INSTRUCTIONS: Answer Question ONE and any other TWO questions.

QUESTION ONE (30 MARKS)

a) Using relevant equations, discuss the following Traffic flow parameters

i. Density
ii. Flow
iii. Time headway
iv. Space headway (8 marks)
b) Outline the following types of roads:
i. Arterial urban roads
ii. Collector urban roads
iii. Local urban roads (6 marks)

c) In Meru County, there are two business hub towns A and B with two routes whose
characteristics are given in table 1. The total number of trips between the two zones is
1400 trips per hour. Find the volumes on each route connecting the two zones. Hint:
use the TRC trip assignment model and follow the iteration method to the second
iteration

Table 1

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 Route Number Speed Length Critical Critical Ideal travel
Number of lanes Limits (km) Volume travel time time with no
(km/h) (Vph/lane) (min/km) veh
(min/km)
A one 40 5 800 5 3.5
B one 60 7 1200 4 2.0

d = 0.5 for Vr<Vrc and d = 10.0 for Vr>Vrc (14 marks)

d) Explain the following types of shockwaves associated with bottlenecks

i. Backward recovery shockwaves (1 mark)

ii. Rear stationary shockwaves (1 mark)

QUESTION TWO (20MARKS)

a) Briefly outline the following traffic assignment types
i. All-or-nothing assignment and list its one advantage and two disadvantages
(5 marks)
ii. Multi-route method assignment and state the three assumptions on which this
method is based. (6 marks)

b) The total trip volumes from zone 1 to 2 are 2000. By use of TRC trip assignment
model, find the volumes on each route connecting the two zones using the traffic flow
route data given in the table below. (9 marks)

Route No. Length (km) Speed (km/hr)

1 2 30
2 1.7 20
3 1 5
4 2.5 15

QUESTION THREE (20MARKS)

a) Define the following terms

i. Uninterrupted flow

Meru University of Science & Technology is ISO 9001:2015 Certified

Foundation of Innovations Page 2
 ii. Interrupted flow
iii. Bottle neck
iv. Nodes
v. Links (5 marks)

b) Assign the vehicle trips shown in the following O-D trip table to the network using the
all-or-nothing assignment method. List all the links in the network, their
corresponding traffic volume and the most congested link/links (9 marks)

c) State the main purpose of hierarchy of highway networks and explain four main
objectives of the hierarchy (6marks)

QUESTION FOUR (20MARKS)

(a) A trailer from a minor road joins a major road traffic stream having a flow of 2000
veh/hr and a density of 18veh/km. The heavy traffic in the opposite stream makes it
difficult for vehicle to overtake it once in the traffic stream. The trailer moves at a
speed of 60Km/hr for stretch of 15km. The effect of the entry of the trailer into the
traffic stream is an increase in the density of the traffic behind to 30 veh/Km.

Meru University of Science & Technology is ISO 9001:2015 Certified

Foundation of Innovations Page 3
 Determine the number of vehicles that will be in the traffic stream when the trailer
eventually leaves (13marks)
(b) Define space headway and time headway and indicate them on time-space diagram
(3 marks)

(c) Define four variations of vehicle routing problem (4 marks)

QUESTION FIVE (20MARKS)

a) State four components of congestion costs in traffic management (4 marks)

b) State the four primary variables used to describe the flow of vehicles on a path.
(2marks)
c) The national park service plans to develop a wide area for tourism. Six locations (See
table 4) in the area are very important. The distances between them (in KM) are given
in table 4 below. The park management want to minimise the KM of the total distance
to see all the six spaces. Determine how the road should be constructed to achieve this
objective. A is the entrance to the park (14 marks)

Table 4: The Park routes

From To Distance
A B 20
A E 100
A D 20
A C 40
B D 10
C D 40
C G 30
D G 70
D F 100
D E 70
E F 80
E G 50
F G 30

Meru University of Science & Technology is ISO 9001:2015 Certified

Foundation of Innovations Page 4
 MERU UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
P.O. Box 972-60200 – Meru-Kenya.
Tel: +254 (0)799529958, +254 (0)799529959, +254 (0)712524293
Website: www.must.ac.ke Email: [email protected]

University Examinations 2021/2022

FOURTH YEAR, SECOND SEMESTER EXAMINATION FOR THE DEGREE OF BACHELOR

OF TECHNOLOGY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

ECT 3450: TRAFFIC ENGINEERING II

DATE: OCTOBER 2022 TIME: 2 HOURS

INSTRUCTIONS:
• Answer Question ONE, which is COMPULSORY, and carry thirty (30) marks.
• Answer TWO Questions from the remaining THREE Questions which each carry
twenty (20) marks

QUESTION ONE
(a) Using relevant equations, discuss the following Traffic flow parameters
(i) Speed
(ii) Flow
(iii)Density
(iv) Time headway
(v) Space headway (10 marks)
(b) Outline four common form of vehicle movement control (4 marks)
(c) Explain the following types of shockwaves associated with bottlenecks
(i) Frontal stationary shockwaves (1 mark)
(ii) Rear stationary shockwaves (1 mark)

Meru University of Science & Technology is ISO 9001:2015 Certified

Foundation of Innovations Page 1
(d) Assign the vehicle trips shown in the following O-D trip table to the network using the all-or-
nothing assignment method. List all the links in the network, their corresponding traffic volume
and the most congested link/links (9 marks)

(e) State the main purpose of hierarchy of highway networks and explain three main objectives of
the hierarchy (5marks)
QUESTION TWO
(a) List five applications of traffic assignment (5 marks)
(b) In Meru County, there are two business hub towns 1 and 2 with two routes whose
characteristics are given in table 1. The total number of trips between the two zones is 1200 trips
per hour. Find the volumes on each route connecting the two zones. Hint: use the TRC trip
assignment model and follow the iteration method to the second iteration

Meru University of Science & Technology is ISO 9001:2015 Certified

Foundation of Innovations Page 2
Table 1

Route No. of Speed Length Critical Critical Ideal travel time

NO. Tones Limit (km) Vol. unit lane travel With no vol. min/km
1 One 30 3 600 3 2.5
2 One 50 4 1100 2 1.5

d = 0.5 for Vr<Vrc and d = 10.0 for Vr>Vrc (15 marks)

QUESTION THREE
(a) State four components of congestion costs in traffic management (4 marks)
(b) State the four primary variables used to describe the flow of vehicles on a path. (2 marks)
(c) The national park service plans to develop a wide area for tourism. Six locations (See table 4)
in the area are very important. The distances between them (in KM) are given in table 4
below. The park management want to minimise the KM of the total distance to see all the six
spaces. Determine how the road should be constructed to achieve this objective. A is the
entrance to the park (14 marks)

Table 4: The Park routes

From To Distance
A B 20
A E 100
A D 20
A C 40
B D 10
C D 40
C G 30
D G 70
D F 100
D E 70
E F 80
E G 50
F G 30

QUESTION FOUR
(a) Briefly outline the following traffic assignment types
i) All-or-nothing assignment and list its one advantage and two disadvantages
(5 marks)

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 ii) Multi-route method assignment and state the three assumptions on which this method
is based. (6 marks)
(b) The total trip volumes from zone 1 to 2 are 2000. By use of TRC trip assignment model, find
the volumes on each route connecting the two zones using the traffic flow route data given in
the table below. (9 marks)
Route No. Length (km) Speed (km/hr)
1 2 30
2 1.7 20
3 1 5
4 2.5 15

QUESTION FIVE
(a) A trailer from a minor road joins a major road traffic stream having a flow of 2000 veh/hr
and a density of 18veh/km. The heavy traffic in the opposite stream makes it difficult for
vehicle to overtake it once in the traffic stream. The trailer moves at a speed of 60Km/hr for
stretch of 15km. The effect of the entry of the trailer into the traffic stream is an increase in
the density of the traffic behind to 30 veh/Km. Determine the number of vehicles that will be
in the traffic stream when the trailer eventually leaves (13marks)
(b) Define space headway and time headway and indicate them on time-space diagram (3 marks)
(c) Define four variations of vehicle routing problem (4 marks)

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