Q 1: Bad gums may mean a bad mood.

Researchers discovered that 85% of people who

have suffered a bad mood had periodontal disease, an inflammation of the gums. Only
29% of healthy people have this disease. Suppose that in a certain community bad
moods are quite rare, occurring with only 10% probability. If someone has periodontal
disease, what is the probability that he or she will have a bad mood? (10 Marks)
Note: Draw the tree diagram for the above problem. Handwritten tree diagram is
prohibited.

Ans 1.
Introduction:
Bayes' theorem is a statistical concept that allows us to make choices by updating our
previous beliefs based on new evidence. It is an effective tool used in many fields such as
science, medicine, engineering and finance. In this article, we can use Bayes' theorem to
solve the problem of periodontal disease and bad habits.

Problem Statement: The problem statement states that gum can cause bad moods. Research
has found that eighty-five percent of healthy people have periodontal disease, inflammation
of the gums. 29% of healthy people have this disease. What are the mood changes if a person
has periodontal disease? In the selected community, the horrible mood is rare, only 10%
probability.

Solution:

To solve this problem, we will use Bayes theorem, namely: P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B)

where:

P(A|B) is the probability of event A given that event B has occurred.

P(B|A) is the probability that event A will occur.
The probability that P(A) occurs
P(B) is the probability that B occurs

In this case, we want to know if someone has periodontal disease and is in a bad mood. We
can show this by notation:

P (Illness | Chronic Illness)

We know that the probability of the previous action is 0.1 (10%). In addition, we found that
negative mood was associated with a 0.85 (85%) risk of periodontal disease, and negative
mood was associated with a 0.29 (29%) risk of periodontal disease. We can display this
information using a tree diagram as shown below:

The prominence of the image of a tree indicates the emergence of a negative or negative
mood in history. In this case, bad mood is rare, there are only 10 opportunities. So the
probability of being in a bad mood is 0.1 and the probability of not being in a bad mood is
0.9.

The alternative position of the imaging of the tree indicates the possibility of developing
periodontal disease as a negative mood or negative development. Observations show that the
probability of developing periodontal complaints is 0.85 for people with bad habits. The odds
ratio of having an undiagnosed periodontal complaint was 0.29. Therefore, the probability of
getting a periodontal complaint with a bad mood is 0.15, and the probability of getting rid of
a periodontal complaint without a bad mood is 0.71.

Using a tree diagram, we can calculate the probability of developing a bad mood and
associated periodontal complaints. 1 can grow from a tree shape

P(height and time) = P(complaint) * P(time|complaint)

= 0.1 * 0.85
= 0.0.5

We also know that periodontal complaints can cause

P (Periodic complaints) = P (Periodic complaints | Bad temperature) * P (Periodic complaints
| Periodic complaints | Periodic complaints |
= 0.85 * 0.10.29 * 0.9
= 0.346

Now we can use Bayes theorem to calculate the probability of periodontal complaints
P (Periodic complaints | Periodic complaints) = P (Periodic complaints)
= 0.85 * 0.1 / 0.346
= 0.2457

Accordingly, the probability of failure due to periodontal complaints is 0.2457 or about

24.57.

In conclusion, using Bayes theorem and tree model, we determined that the probability of
people with bad character given periodontal complaints is about 24.57. This finding indicates
an increased frequency of periodontal complaints among those experiencing negative mood
and a strong relationship between periodontal complaints and negative mood. The results of
this study highlight the importance of maintaining desirable dental hygiene and treating
periodontal complaints for oral health, general well-being, and internal health.

Q 2: Using MS-EXCEL show the Regression model, consider ‘Instagram followers’ as

dependent variable and ‘no f post per day’ as an independent variable. Write the
interpretation of EXCEL Tables. Write the conclusion on the fitting of your model also.
(10 Marks)
 no of no of
followers post

439 2
340 1
315 4
444 5
377 2
456 5
495 2
304 2
401 5
305 5
338 4
348 2
402 1
395 5

Ans 2.
To create a regression model in MS Excel, you must first enter the facts into a spreadsheet.
For this, there is information about the number of Instagram followers and the number of
posts per day. We will use different posts by day as the dependent variable and the number of
followers.

How to create a regression model in Excel:

Step 1: Enter the records into two columns with the independent variable (range of records
per day) in one column and the dependent variable (diversity tracker) in the other column.

Step 2: Select the Statistics tab and click the Data Evaluation button.

Step 3: Select "Regression" from the list of analysis tools and click "OK".

Step 4: In the Regression dialog box, enter the input type (cell range containing independent
variable data) and output type (cell range containing dependent variable data).
Step 5: Select the required alternatives for your regression analysis. For example, we can
choose "Score" to calculate the sum and residual (the difference between the predicted value
and the actual value) of our input and output variables.

Step 6: Click enough to run the regression analysis.

After the regression is evaluated, Excel will create a new sheet with the regression output.
The output will consist of the regression equation, coefficient of determination (R-squared),
standard error, and t-value and p-value for the coefficient.

We have a new page as shown below.

The table below shows the results of simple linear regression estimation in Excel. The table
provides statistics on the regression coefficient, statistical significance of the version, and
model fit. In this analysis, the neutral variable is the diversity of journal entries (x) and the
dependent variable is the number of followers (y).

Description of the Excel spreadsheet:

Regression statistics:

Some R's:

The correlation coefficient between the two variables indicates a weak positive relationship
between diary entries and follow-up. A value of 0.0466 indicates a weak relationship between
the variables.

R squared:

This shows that the variation between the coefficient of variation and the logarithm can
explain at best 0.2% of the variation in tracking. These low values indicate that the model
should fit the data better.

A rectangle of course R:

R-squared values are adjusted for the number of variables in the model. In this case, the mean
is negative, indicating that the model does not fit the data.

Common mistakes:

This is normal compression of waste. This represents the average gap between the actual
value and the expected value.

ANOVA:

The ANOVA table provides information about the significance of the regression model. The
F-statistic tests whether the regression model is significant. In this case, the F-statistic may be
too low to indicate that the change is not significant.

Coefficient:
The coefficient table provides information about the regression coefficient. Interval 377.21 is
the value of the relevant variable when the neutral variable is zero. The coefficient of the
number of posts per day is 1.74, which means we can get an average of 1.74 followers for
each post posted daily. However, the p-value of this coefficient indicates that it is not
statistically different from zero.

The regression equation in this question is: y = 377.21+ 1.74 x

The results:

The regression estimation results show that the variety of currently related posts can better
predict the number of Instagram followers. A low R-squared, adjusted R-squared value, and
low F-statistics means that the model does not fit the data.

This may depend on several factors, such as when it is best to review records or models.
Therefore, it is recommended to reanalyze and consider other variables to build a better and
more accurate model.

Q 3A): 1000 light bulbs with a mean life of 120 days are installed in a new factory and
their length of life is normally distributed with standard deviation of 20 days.
If it is decided to replace all the bulbs together, what interval should be allowed between
replacements if not more than 10% should expire before replacement? (5 Marks)
Note: You are not supposed to use EXCEL or any other software to write this answer.

Ans 3a.
In the given problem, determine the interval between the replacement of 1000 light bulbs
installed in a new factory. Also, bulbs have an average lifespan of 120 days, and we don't
allow more than 10% of bulbs to go beyond replacement.

If we say that bulb X has a life of several days, then X is normally distributed with an average
of 120 days and a normal skew.

We want to find the value of x like this

P(X <= x) = 0.10.

We can find this value using standard distribution tables or calculators.

First, we standardize X using the formula:

Z = (X − μ)/σ

Here μ is the mean and σ is the standard deviation.

Z = (x - 120) / 20

Using the normal distribution table, we see that the z-score is -1.28, corresponding to P(Z <=
z) = 0.10.
Substituting this value into the formula, we have
-1.28 = (x - 120)/20

We solve for x
x = -1.28 * 20 + 120 = 94.4

Therefore, the replacement interval should be 94.4 days or less, so the lamp should not
exceed 10% before replacement.

In other words, the bulbs must be replaced every 94.4 days to ensure that they do not burn out
more than 10% before replacement. This is an important parameter to ensure the correct
operation of the production unit, because the failure of the lamp can cause productivity or
safety problems.

It should be noted that the normal distribution is widely used in statistical analysis and is a
powerful data analysis tool. It has some important properties such as symmetrical and clear
proposals and regular contractions. This feature helps you read a variety of statistical data,
from physical measurements to financial data.

Normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution widely used in statistical analysis

because of its many important properties. Some basic features of the daily distribution
include a curve formed by a symmetrical bell, a peak in the supply curve, and a well-defined
supply and standard deviation.

The distribution is not uniform, that is, it has a slightly skewed mode and mean in each
direction. The area under the simple normal distribution curve is always at least one, and the
mean and standard deviation completely determine it. Those properties make it an effective
tool for document analysis and modeling.

In conclusion, we found that with 1,000 lamps with an average life of 120 days, the interval
between replacement and the 20-day priority drain should be 94.4 days or less. In this
calculation, the average and normal distribution tables are used as statistical analysis tools.

Q 3B): calculate the average age of migrants for both the categories of gender and write
your interpretation. (5 Marks)

Age Male Female

0-4 98,34,738 91,27,975

5-9 1,09,59,506 99,58,059
10-14 1,24,25,108 1,14,51,227
15-19 1,26,83,733 1,65,18,666
20-24 1,31,97,283 3,36,58,466
25-29 1,30,45,214 3,75,22,017
30-34 1,21,34,009 3,42,86,096
35-39 1,20,60,030 3,30,54,887
40-44 1,09,00,143 2,72,61,236
45-49 97,04,026 2,34,47,716
 50-54 79,40,152 1,78,42,986
55-59 61,61,754 1,51,92,910
60-64 54,01,736 1,43,47,372
65-69 36,87,082 1,01,41,196
70-74 26,62,421 70,33,728
75-79 13,41,572 34,93,001
80-85 14,61,296 42,53,695

Note: You are not supposed to use EXCEL or any other software to write this answer

Ans 3b.
To calculate the median time of settlers for two gender orders, dissociate the number of
particulars at the medium of each time group and the number of settlers in that group by the
wide range of settlers in that order.

For men, the grand number of settlers is, f * x( the product of the medium of each time group
and the number of settlers in that group) is. thus, the moderate time of manly settlers can be
calculated as follows

moderate time of manly settlers = ( f * x aggregate)/( grand number of settlers)

= 4.613.678.689/1.455.99803
= 31,687

thus, the moderate time of manly settlers is around31.69 times.

The grand number of emigrants for women is, f * x grand. thus, the moderate time of
womanish settlers can be calculated as follows

moderate time of womanish settlers = ( f * x aggregate)/( grand number of settlers)

=/
= 36,670

thus, the moderate time of womanish settlers is around36.67 times.

Definition

From the computation over, we can know that the moderate time of manly settlers is 31,687
times and the moderate time of womanish settlers is around 36,670 times. This means that
there are more womanish settlers than manly settlers. The disparity in usual time can be due
to several reasons.

For illustration, this may be because women resettle to join a blood or register with their
misters, frequently latterly than men who resettle for work- related reasons. Also, women
tend to reside with men, which may be another argument why womanish settlers have a better
legit time.

Knowing the true time of settlers for each gender is important because it allows procedure
makers to acclimate guidelines to meet the requirements of nonidentical time groups. For
illustration, if the legit time of womanish settlers is advanced, policymakers may want to
extend services acclimatized to the requirements of aged people, involving health care, weal
programs, and time-applicable casing centers. Also call that the moderate time of manly
settlers has dropped. In this environment, procedure makers can concentrate on employment
openings that meet the requirements of youthful people, similar as externships, training
programs and internships.

In summary, the moderate time of manly settlers is31.69 times, and the moderate time of
womanish settlers is36.67 times. This time disparity will hinge on several procurators,
involving reasons for migration and the gender gap in life expectation. gathering the
moderate time of settlers for each gender is important for prosperous integration into the host
community and perfecting the common metric of living. This information is important for
procedure makers to design packages and programs that meet the requirements of
nonidentical time groups, similar as furnishing healthcare installations for aged womanish
settlers and creating job openings for youthful manly settlers.