SCM Unit 2
SCM Unit 2
There are several different ways to do demand forecasting. Your forecast may differ
based on the forecasting model you use. Best practice is to do multiple demand
forecasts. This will give you a more well-rounded picture of your future sales. Using
more than one forecasting model can also highlight differences in predictions. Those
differences can point to a need for more research or better data inputs.
The passive forecasting model works well if you have solid sales data to build on. In
addition, this is a good model for businesses that aim for stability rather than growth. It’s
an approach that assumes that this year’s sales will be approximately the same as last
year’s sales.
Passive demand forecasting is easier than other types because it doesn’t require you to
use statistical methods or study economic trends.
Active projections will often factor in externals. Considerations can include the economic
outlook, growth projections for your market sector, and projected cost savings from
supply chain efficiencies. Startups that have less historical data to draw on will need to
base their assumptions on external data.
3. Short-Term Projections
Short-term demand forecasting looks just at the next three to 12 months. This is useful
for managing your just-in-time supply chain. Looking at short-term demand allows you
to adjust your projections based on real-time sales data. It helps you respond quickly to
changes in customer demand.
If you run a product lineup that changes frequently, understanding short-term demand is
important. For most businesses, however, a short-term forecast is just one piece of a
larger puzzle. You’ll probably want to look further out with medium- or long-term
demand forecasting.
4. Long-Term Projections
Your long-term forecast will make projections one to four years into the future. This
forecasting model focuses on shaping your business growth trajectory. While your long-
term planning will be based partly on sales data and market research, it is also
aspirational.
Internal business demand forecasting is a helpful tool for making realistic projections. It
can also point you toward areas where you need to build capacity in order to meet
expansion goals.
1. Industry
2. Company value proposition
3. Internal decision-making processes
4. Business goals
There are five key capabilities to consider that will help give you an inclusive view of
your end-to-end network when beginning to develop your supply chain strategy:
2. Supply Response: Operations that make things happen, such as manufacturing and
asset management
4. Demand Sense: Learning, knowing and monitoring what your customers want
5. Demand Response: Order fulfillment processes that help give customers what they
want
Supply chain management (SCM) involves the movement of products and services from
suppliers to distributors. SCM involves the flow of information and products between
and among supply chain stages to maximize profitability.
The major functions involved in SCM are the procurement of raw materials, product
development, marketing, operations, distribution, finance, and customer services.
Customers are an integral part of SCM.
The objective of supply network or SCM is to maximize the overall value. Value is
correlated to supply chain profitability. Here, profitability is the difference between the
total revenue generated from the customer and the overall supply chain costs.
• Deciding on the supply chain structure and the activities each stage of the supply
chain will perform
• Selecting a location and capacities of facility
• Deciding on the products that are to be made and the location where they need
to be stored
• Choosing the modes of transportation and the source from where the information
is to be collected
value chain
What is a value chain?
A value chain is a concept describing the full chain of a business's activities in
the creation of a product or service -- from the initial reception of materials all
the way through its delivery to market, and everything in between.
A value chain analysis is when a business identifies its primary and secondary
activities and subactivities, and evaluates the efficiency of each point. A value chain
analysis can reveal linkages, dependencies and other patterns in the value chain.
The value chain concept was first described in 1985 by Harvard Business School
professor Michael Porter, in his book Competitive Advantage: Creating and
Sustaining Superior Performance.
A
diagram of a value chain's five primary activities and four secondary activities.
Primary activities
Primary activities contribute to a product or service's physical creation, sale,
maintenance and support. These activities include the following:
Quantitative Measures
Mostly the measures taken for measuring the performance may be somewhat similar to
each other, but the objective behind each segment is very different from the other.
Quantitative measures is the assessments used to measure the performance, and
compare or track the performance or products. We can further divide the quantitative
measures of supply chain performance into two types. They are −
• Non-financial measures
• Financial measures
• Raw materials
• Work-in-process, i.e., unfinished and semi-finished sections
• Finished goods inventory
• Spare parts
Every inventor
y is held for a different reason. It’s a must to maintain optimal levels of each type of
inventory. Hence gauging the actual inventory levels will supply a better scenario of
system efficiency.
Resource Utilization
In a supply chain network, huge variety of resources is used. These different types of
resources available for different applications are mentioned below.
• Manufacturing resources − Include the machines, material handlers, tools, etc.
• Storage resources − Comprise warehouses, automated storage and retrieval
systems.
• Logistics resources − Engage trucks, rail transport, air-cargo carriers, etc.
• Human resources − Consist of labor, scientific and technical personnel.
• Financial resources − Include working capital, stocks, etc.
In the resource utilization paradigm, the main motto is to utilize all the assets or
resources efficiently in order to maximize customer service levels, reduce lead times
and optimize inventory levels.
Finanacial Measures
The measures taken for gauging different fixed and operational costs related to a supply
chain are considered the financial measures. Finally, the key objective to be achieved is
to maximize the revenue by maintaining low supply chain costs.
There is a hike in prices because of the inventories, transportation, facilities, operations,
technology, materials, and labor. Generally, the financial performance of a supply chain
is assessed by considering the following items −
• Cost of raw materials.
• Revenue from goods sold.
• Activity-based costs like the material handling, manufacturing, assembling rates
etc.
• Inventory holding costs.
• Transportation costs.
• Cost of expired perishable goods.
• Penalties for incorrectly filled or late orders delivered to customers.
• Credits for incorrectly filled or late deliveries from suppliers.
• Cost of goods returned by customers.
• Credits for goods returned to suppliers.
In short, we can say that the financial performance indices can be merged as one by
using key modules such as activity based costing, inventory costing, transportation
costing, and inter-company financial transactions.
Supply chain managers have to undertake research and development efforts to improve
both responsiveness and efficiency of their supply chains on a continuous basis. In the past
there were technological and managerial breakthroughs which improve one of them without
any deterioration in the other and also improvement in both dimensions simultaneously.
Actual economic theory tells, new technologies (capital investments) are adopted for capital
productivity. Capital productivity in the context of supply chains comes through
improvement in responsiveness and efficiency.
But at a certain point in time, there can be tradeoffs between responsiveness and
efficiency. Hence supply chain designers come with supply chains that give various
combinations of responsiveness and efficiency (responsiveness - efficiency frontier) and the
optimal combination is chosen based on the competitive strategy considerations.
Inventory: It consists of all raw material, work in process, and finished goods within a
supply chain.
Transportation: It involves moving inventory from one point in the supply chain to another
point.
Inventory
Inventory is maintained in the supply chain because of mismatches between supply and
demand.
Cycle inventory: This results due to producing or buying larger lots to minimize acquisition
costs related to processing each purchase order or production order.
Increasing inventory gives higher responsiveness but results in higher inventory carrying
cost.
Transportation
Air
Truck (Road)
Rail
Ship
Pipeline
Electronic transportation (the newest mode for music, documents etc.)
Facilities
Location
Capacity
Manufacturing Methodology or Technology Warehousing methodology.
Information
Information does not have a physical presence. It is likely to be overlooked. But it deeply
affects every part of supply chain. Information is the connection between various stages in a
supply chain and allows them to coordinate actions and increase the maximum supply chain
profitability. It is also essential in daily operations. The stocks available in warehouses must
have visibility so that when a customer wants an item, it can be delivered to him.
The supply chain is getting fragmented. At one time vertical integration was the order of the
day. But the present trend is to concentrate on core competence and outsource more
activities. Thus the supply chain is more fragmented now.
Globalization is creating global supply chains and hence physical distance is increasing
between a company and its suppliers and a company and its customers.
While creating a strategy is difficult, executing it is much more difficult. Many companies
understand Toyota Production System now, but still find it difficult to implement and
operate.
Dennis Pronk (pictured) from Involvation: ‘To do this, you need reliable insight into the likely
demand variation, the flexibility to manage this and – last but not least – an effective
decision-making process in order to take the necessary action. As a result, IBP, S&OP and
forecasting clearly have a place in this Wheel of Five as a way of organizing and feeding the
decision-making.’
balanced scorecard
What is a balanced scorecard (BSC)?
The balanced scorecard is a management system aimed at translating an
organization's strategic goals into a set of organizational performance
objectives that, in turn, are measured, monitored and changed if necessary to
ensure that an organization's strategic goals are met.
The balanced scorecard approach examines performance from four
perspectives.
• Internal analysis,
which looks at how internal business processes are linked
to strategic goals.
1. Preparation. The organization identifies the business unit for which a top-level
scorecard is appropriate. Broadly defined, this is a business unit that has its own
customers, distribution channels, production facilities and financial goals.
3. First executive workshop. Top management convenes with the facilitator to start
developing the scorecard by reaching a consensus on the mission and strategy
and linking the measurements to them. This can include video interviews with
shareholders and customers.
4. The second round of interviews. The facilitator reviews, consolidates and
documents input from the executive workshop and interviews each senior
executive to form a tentative balanced scorecard.
The two main benefits of inventory management are that it ensures you’re
able to fulfill incoming or open orders and raises profits. Inventory
management also:
▪ Saves Money:
Understanding stock trends means you see how much of and where you have
something in stock so you’re better able to use the stock you have. This also
allows you to keep less stock at each location (store, warehouse), as you’re
able to pull from anywhere to fulfill orders — all of this decreases costs tied up
in inventory and decreases the amount of stock that goes unsold before it’s
obsolete.
▪ Satisfies Customers:
One element of developing loyal customers is ensuring they receive the items
they want without waiting.
▪ Poor Processes:
Outdated or manual processes can make work error-prone and slow down
operations.
Some people also say that the word “stock” is used more commonly in the
U.K. to refer to inventory. While there is a difference between the two, the
terms inventory and stock are often interchangeable.
Find out which technique works best for your business by reading the guide to
inventory management techniques. Here’s a summary of them:
▪ ABC Analysis:
This method works by identifying the most and least popular types of stock.
▪ Batch Tracking:
This method groups similar items to track expiration dates and trace defective
items.
▪ Bulk Shipments:
This method considers unpacked materials that suppliers load directly into
ships or trucks. It involves buying, storing and shipping inventory in bulk.
▪ Consignment:
When practicing consignment inventory management, your business won’t
pay its supplier until a given product is sold. That supplier also retains
ownership of the inventory until your company sells it.
▪ Cross-Docking:
Using this method, you’ll unload items directly from a supplier truck to the
delivery truck. Warehousing is essentially eliminated.
▪ Demand Forecasting:
This form of predictive analytics helps predict customer demand.
▪ Dropshipping:
In the practice of dropshipping, the supplier ships items directly from its
warehouse to the customer.
▪ Lean Manufacturing:
This methodology focuses on removing waste or any item that does not
provide value to the customer from the manufacturing system.
▪ Materials Requirements Planning (MRP):
This system handles planning, scheduling and inventory control for
manufacturing.
▪ Safety Stock:
An inventory management ethos that prioritizes safety stock will ensure
there’s always extra stock set aside in case the company can’t replenish those
items.
▪ Six Sigma:
This is a data-based method for removing waste from businesses as it relates
to inventory.