Elements of Statistics and Probability

Lecture: 1 & 2

Tarikul Islam
Lecturer, BRACU

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Outline

History
Introduction to Statistics
Basic Definitions
Exercise
Data Representation
Graphical Presentation
Qualitative Data Representation
Quantitative Data Representation

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 History

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BRAC

• Sir Fazle Hasan Abed, KCMG founded BRAC in 1972 at

Shallah Upzilla in Sunamganj
• BRAC was initially known as Bangladesh Rehabilitation
Assistance Committee then known as the Bangladesh Rural
Advancement Committee and later Building Resources Across
Communities, BRAC
• BRAC operates in 11 countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan
Africa
• BRAC works in Economic development, Educational sector,
public health, disaster relief etc

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BRAC University

• BRAC university was founded in 2001 by Sir Fazle Hasan

Abed
• Professor Jamilur Reza Choudhury was the first vice chancellor
of this university (2001 - 2010)
• BRAC has 12 different schools and institutes and 7
departments

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BRAC University

• The mission of BRAC university:

• Fostering Knowledge Creation

• Upholding Human Values

• Promoting Sustainable Development

• The VISION BracU 2.0

• Proud, global institution from Bangladesh

• Bangladesh’s flagship university

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 Introduction to Statistics

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• What is the difference between data and information?

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Data and Information

• Data refers to raw, unorganized, and unprocessed facts and

figures.
Example: A series of numbers (e.g., 1, 3, 7, 9) without additional
context is data
• Information is processed and organized data that has context,
relevance, and meaning. It provides answers to “who,” “what,”
“where,” “when,” and “why” questions.
Example: If the numbers 1, 3, 7, 9 represent the scores of a student
in different exams, the average score (e.g., 5) and the interpretation
that it represents the student’s overall performance is information.

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History

• The subject Statistics is as old as the human society. It has

been used right from the existence of life on this earth,
although the sphere of its utility was very much restricted
• In the olden days Statistics was regarded as the Science
Statecraft and was the by-product of the administrative
activity of the state.

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History

• Origin of the word Statistics

• the Latin word status or

• the Italian word statista or

• German word statistik or

• French word statistique

• Each of which means a political state

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Definitioins

• Statistics is a branch of mathematics dealing with the

collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses
of numerical data (Merriam Webstar)
• According to Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1947), the science of
statistics is essentially a branch of applied mathematics and
may be regarded as mathematics, applied to observational data
• Statistics is the science concerned with developing and studying
methods for collecting, analyzing, interpreting and presenting
empirical data enabling drawing valid conclusion or forecasting
on these

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Objectives of Statistics

• The main objectives of statistics are

• Collecting the data

• Summarizing the data

• Estimating parameters from the data

• Testing the hypothesis

• Interpreting the results

• Drawing valid conclusion

• Forecasting the future values

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Example

Let’s consider an example that involves using statistics to analyze

CGPA (Cumulative Grade Point Average) data in a university
setting.

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Example

• Collecting the data: The university collects CGPA data from

its students, including information such as the student’s name,
department, semester etc.
• Summarizing the data: The collected CGPA data is
summarized and organized.(a table, or graph)
• Estimating parameters from the data: Statistical techniques
can be used to estimate parameters related to the CGPA data.
For example, the university may estimate the average CGPA of
all students.

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Example

• Testing the hypothesis: The university may have a

hypothesis, such as “the average CGPA of engineering students
is higher than that of business students”
• Interpreting the results: The results of the statistical analysis
are interpreted in the context of the CGPA data
• Drawing valid conclusions: The university may conclude that
engineering students have a significantly higher average CGPA
compared to business students
• Forecasting the future values: They can forecast the average
CGPA for the upcoming semester.

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Scope and Applications of Statistics

Economics, Social science, Business, Actuary, Politics,

Psychology, Computer science, Medicine, Genetics,
Epidemiology, Environmental studies, Geology, Geography,
Astronomy

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Applications of Statistics

Statistics has it extensive application in the following fields:

• Surveys

• Government Operation

• Scientific research

• Business and Industry

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Data Science and Statistics
• Data Science is fundamentally an interdisciplinary subject.
One of the best existing definition of data science is illustrated
by Drew Conway’s Data Science Venn Diagram.

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Data Science and Statistics

Data science comprises three distinct and overlapping areas:

• the skills of a statistician who knows how to model and
summarize datasets
• the skills of a computer scientist who can design and use
algorithms to efficiently store, process, and visualize this data
• the domain expertise — what we might think of as classical
training in a subject— necessary both to formulate the right
questions and to put their answers in context

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 Basic Definitions

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Population and Sample

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Population and Sample

• Population is the collection of all individuals or items under

consideration in a statistical study
• Sample (a representative part of population) is that part of the
population from which information is collected
Question: If we want to determine the average height of the 2nd
semester students of the BRAC university then what is the
population and sample?

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Parameter and Statistic

• Parameter is a numerical measure that describes a

characteristic of the population
• Statistic is a numerical measure that describes a characteristic
of the sample

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Types of Statistics

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Types of Statistics

• Descriptive statistics is the branch of statistics that involves

organizing, summarizing, displaying, and describing data.
(usually interpret by the words “effect” or “difference”)
• frequency distribution

• central tendency

• Inferential statistics is the branch of statistics that involves

drawing conclusions about a population based on information
contained in a sample taken from that population and
measuring the reliability of the conclusions. (usually interpret
by the words “significant effect” or “significant difference”)
• hypothesis testing

• regression etc.

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Variable

• Variable: a characteristic that varies from one person or thing

to another is called a variable.
• For example: Height, weight, age of the students.

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Types of Variables

There are generally two types of variables:

• Qualitative variable (Attribute)

• Quantitative variable
• Discrete variable

• Continuous variable

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Qualitative variable (Attribute)

• A qualitative variable is one for which numerical

measurement is not possible
• In other word when the characteristic being studied is
nonnumeric, it is called a qualitative variable or an attribute
Example: Hair color (brown, black, white etc.), Religion (Muslim,
Hindu, etc.), Sex (male, female), Division (Dhaka, Chittagram,
Mymensingh etc.) are all qualitative variables

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Qualitative variable (Attribute)

• The qualitative observations can neither meaningfully ordered

nor physically measured, these can only be classified and
then enumerated.
• An individual is simply assigned to any one of the several
mutually exclusive categories on the basis of observation on
the individual.

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Mutually exclusive and Exhaustive

• Mutually exclusive: Categories are so defined that each

member of the population is correctly allocated to one and only
one category
• Exhaustive: each person, object, or item must be classified in
at least one category i.e. A classification is exhaustive when it
provides sufficient categories to accommodated all members of
the population

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Quantitative Variable

• A quantitative variable is one for which the resulting

observations have numeric value and thus possesses a natural
ordering
• Quantitative Variables are measured on a numeric or
quantitative scale.
• Example: districts population size, customers shoe size,
vehicles speed on a highway, amount of daily sell of a shop etc.
are all quantitative variables

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Types of Quantitative variable

• Discrete variable: When a variable can assume only isolated

values within a given range is called discrete variable
Example: Number of children in a family, number of road accident
in a year, number of phone call received in a phone booth etc.
• Continuous variable: A quantitative variable whose possible
values form some interval of numbers is called a continuous
variable
Example: height of a person since it can take any value between
5.6 feet and 5.8 feet.

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Difference of Discrete and Continuous variable

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Data

• Data: Information obtained by observing values of a variable is

data.
• There are generally two sources of data:
• Primary source data

• Secondary source data

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Sources of data

• Primary data is obtained from an investigation conducted for

the first time. Thus, the data collected for the first time by the
investigator as original data are known as primary data. It is
expensive and time consuming.
For example the national census data
• Secondary data is the data which is obtained from a prior
investigation or which is already available. It is inexpensive
and fast.
For example Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS)
dataset

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Data collection methods (Primary data)

• Data collection instruments (Questionnaire/ Schedule):

Questionnaire or Schedule is formalized set of questions for
obtaining information from respondents.
• Both Questionnaire and Schedule serve the same purpose, the
only difference is that Questionnaires are filled by the
respondent and the Schedules are filled by the interviewer.
• Observation

• Personal interview

• Telephone Conversation

• Mailing

• Combination

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Scales of Measurement
• Measurement is a process of assigning numbers to some
characteristics or variables or events according to scientific rules
• Variables in a study may be of different nature and they may
represent some attributes, characteristics or key factors of
interest
• These variables can be measured under four levels or scales of
measurement:
Type of Variable Measurement Scale
Qualitative 1. Nominal
2. Ordinal
Quantitative 3. Interval
4. Ratio

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Nominal Scale

• The measurement scale, in which numbers are assigned to the

categories or variable values for identification only, is called a
nominal scale.
• Each value is a category and the values itself serves merely as a
label on name for the category. No assumption of ordering or
distance between categories is made.
• Categories must be mutually exclusive and exhaustive

Example: Sex, place of residence, blood group etc.

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Ordinal Scale

• The measurement scale, in which numbers are assigned to the

categories or variable values for identification as well as ranking,
is called an ordinal scale.
• In this scale, the numeric codes are used to identify the
different categories of a variable in such a way that these
numbers or values can be arranged in ascending or descending
order.
Example: Socio-economic status, educational level.

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Interval Scale

• The measurement scale, in which numbers are assigned to the

variable values in such a way that the level of measurement is
broken down on a scale of equal units and the zero value on
the scale is not absolutely zero (but a pre-set value) is called
an interval scale.
Example: The variable temperature can have values
0◦ C , 10◦ C , 20◦ C etc. Here the value 0◦ C does not mean the absence
of temperature. Thus, the value zero in interval scale is not
absolutely zero

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Ratio Scale

• The measurement scale, in which numbers are assigned to the

variable values in such a way that the level of measurement is
broken down on a scale of equal units and the zero value on
the scale is absolutely zero is called a ratio scale.
• In other words, we can say that when zero means absence of
the characteristics then the appropriate scale to use is the ratio
scale.
Example: Age, weight, pulse rate etc.

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Comparisons of the Measurement Scales

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Conversion of the Measurement Scales

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 Exercise

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Exercise-I

Give one possible sample of size 4 from each of the following

populations:
• All daily newspaper published in Bangladesh.

• All departments in BRAC University.

• All bus companies in Dhaka City.

• All grade point averages in your university.

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Exercise-II

Classify each variable as qualitative or quantitative:

• Marital status of nurses in a hospital

• Time it takes to run a marathon

• Weights of lobsters in a tank in a restaurant

• Colors of automobiles in a shopping center parking lot

• Ages of people living in a personal care home

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Exercise-III

Classify each variable as discrete or continuous:

• Number of pizzas sold by Pizza Express each day

• Lifetimes (in hours) of 15 iPod batteries

• Weights of the backpacks of first graders on a school bus

• Number of students each day who make appointments with a

mathematics tutor at a local college
• Blood pressures of runners in a marathon

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Exercise-IV

Determine if the source would be a Primary Source or a secondary

source of data
• A newspaper article from 1971 describes the attack on
Bangladesh.
• The movie Titanic.

• A friend giving a report about the Industrial Revolution’s

changes to America.

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 Data Representation

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Data

Based on how the information is organized or presented in a dataset,

there are two types of data:
• Raw data (Ungrouped data)

• Grouped data

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Raw data

• In any statistical investigation, when data first collected usually

appear in raw form where, information has been recorded
merely in arbitrary order.
• Data is called the raw data before the data are processed or
ranked.
• Raw data, collected for any statistical investigation, is unable
to represent the summary information.
• So it is necessary to represent the raw data in such a way,
which will enable us to extract the preliminary ideas about the
variable(s) under study.

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Dealing with Raw data

The most frequently used methods for data representation are:

• Tabulation
• Frequency distributions

• Relative frequency

• Percentage distribution, etc.

• Graphical representation
• Pie chart

• Bar plot

• Histogram, etc.

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Tabulation

A statistical method of data condensation by which we can

represent summary information of one or more variables, is defined
as tabulation.

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Principles of the constructions of a table

Some of the most basic principles that one should consider in

constructing table are as follows:
• The table should be self-explanatory. The title describing the
contents of the table should be clear, concise and to the point.
• The table should be as simple as possible. Two or three tables
are often preferable to a large table containing too many
details and variables.
• The specified units of measurements for the data should be
given.
• Necessary code or symbols used in table should be explained in
a footnote.
• Sources of data should be mentioned.

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Frequency Distributions
• The number of times a particular value of a certain variable
occurs in a set of observations is called the frequency of that
value.
• The manner in which the frequencies are distributed in the
different classes is known as the frequency distribution of the
values of that variable.
• A sample of 100 students enrolled at a university were asked
what they intended to do after graduation.

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Exercise I

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Relative frequency

• The relative frequency of a category is obtained by dividing

the frequency of that category by the sum of all frequencies.
Frequency of that category
Relative frequency of a category =
Sum of all frequencies

• The relative frequency shows what fractional part or proportion

of the total frequency belongs to the corresponding category.

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Percentage distribution

• The percentage for a category is obtained by multiplying the

relative frequency of that category by 100.

Percentage = Relative frequency × 100

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Exercise II
Construct relative frequency and percentage distribution for these
data:

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Relative frequency and percentage distribution

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 Graphical Presentation

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Data and data everywhere

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A picture is worth a thousand words

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Diffrent types of graphs

• There are different types of graphs used for different types of

data in statistics. Some commonly used graphs are:
• Pie chart

• Bar plot

• Histogram

• Dot plot

• Ogive plot

• Box plot, etc.

• For displaying qualitative data we use Bar plot or pie chart

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 Qualitative Data Representation

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Pie Chart

• A pie chart is a disk divided into wedge-shaped pieces

proportional to the relative frequencies of the qualitative
data.
• Pie Diagram will give appropriate representation of the data
when the variable of interest is categorical (qualitative or
discrete quantitative) and the total over categories is a fixed
value.
• If there are too many categories then Pie Diagram is not a
good option.

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Constructing a pie diagram

• Obtain a relative frequency distribution of the data.

• Divide a disk into wedge-shaped pieces proportional to the

relative frequencies.
• Label the slices with the distinct values and their relative
frequencies.

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Exercise III

Construct the Pie chart for these data:

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Angle size of the Pie chart

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Pie chart

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Donut chart

• A donut chart is almost identical to a pie chart, but the center

is cut out (hence the name ‘donut’)

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Bar chart

• Bar is most commonly used method to represent the qualitative

data as well as frequencies, relative frequencies, or percentages.
• A bar chart displays the distinct values of the qualitative data
on a horizontal axis and the relative frequencies (or frequencies
or percents) of those values on a vertical axis.
• The relative frequency of each distinct value is represented by a
vertical bar whose height is equal to the relative frequency of
that value.
• The bars should be positioned so that they do not touch each
other.

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Constructing bar chart

• Obtain a relative-frequency distribution of the data.

• Draw a horizontal axis on which to place the bars and a

vertical axis on which to display the relative frequencies.
• For each distinct value, construct a vertical bar whose height
equals the relative frequency of that value.
• Label the bars with the distinct values, the horizontal axis with
the name of the variable, and the vertical axis with Relative
frequency.

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Bar plot

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Bar plot

Bar plot can easily be used for comparing two or more data sets.

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 Quantitative Data Representation

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Frequency distribution

• A frequency distribution for quantitative data lists all the

classes and the number of values that belong to each class.
• Data presented in the form of a frequency distribution are
called grouped data.
• There are several method to group quantitative data into
classes. For example:
• Single-value grouping

• Limit grouping

• Cutpoint grouping

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Single value grouping

• In some cases, the most appropriate way to group quantitative

data is to use classes in which each class represents a single
possible value.
• Such classes are called single-value classes, and this method
of grouping quantitative data is called single-value grouping.

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Single value grouping

• In single-value grouping, we use the distinct values of the

observations as the classes, a method completely analogous to
that used for qualitative data.
• Single-value grouping is particularly suitable for discrete data in
which there are only a small number of distinct values.

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Single value representation

Number of TVs in 50 households:

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Single value representation

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Limit Grouping

• A second way to group quantitative data is to use class limits.

With this method, each class consists of a range of values.
• The smallest value that could go in a class is called the lower
limit of the class, and the largest value that could go in the
class is called the upper limit of the class.
• This method of grouping quantitative data is called limit
grouping.
• It is particularly useful when the data are expressed as whole
numbers and there are too many distinct values to employ
single-value grouping

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General rules for forming frequency distribution
The following steps can be considered as the general rules for
constructing frequency distributions:
• Determine the largest and smallest numbers in the raw data
and thus find the range(difference between largest and smallest
numbers).
• Determine the number of classes.

• Calculate class interval using the following formula:

Highest Value - Lowest Value

Size of the class interval = i =
Number of classes

• Determine the number of observations falling into each class

interval, i.e. find the class frequencies. This is best done by
using a tally or score sheet.

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Number of classes

• One’s professional judgment can determine the number of

classes.
• Too many classes or too few classes might not reveal the basic
shape of the set of data.
• As a general rule, it is best to not use less than 5 nor more
than 15 classes in the construction of a frequency distribution.
• The number of classes can be estimated based on the number
of observations, n, using one of the two rules.

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Rules for estimating number of classes

• The 2k rule: As the number of classes, select the smallest

integer, k (whole number) such that 2k > n
• Sturges rule: Estimate the number of classes using formula:

Number of classes = 1 + 3.322 × log10 (n)

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Example

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Some common terms in Limit grouping

• Lower class limit: The smallest value that could go on a class.

• Upper class limit: The largest value that could go on a class.

• Class width: The difference between the lower limit of a class

and the lower limit of the next class.
• Class mark or midpoint: The averages of the two class limits
(upper and lower limits) of a class.
For example: for the class 50 − 59 in the example the lower limit is
, upper limit is , class width is , and class mark is
?

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Shortcomings/Disadvantages of limit grouping

• The numbers in between the lower limit of a group and the

upper limit of the next group does not have any specific group.
For example: for groups 30-39 and 40-49 we can fail to assign a
group to the number 39.5
• To overcome this issue we employ cutpoint grouping.

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Cutpoint grouping

• Each class consists of a range of values.

• The smallest value that could go in a class is called the lower

cutpoint of the class, and the smallest value that could go in
the next higher class is called the upper cutpoint of the class.
• Note that the lower cutpoint of a class is the same as its lower
limit and the upper cutpoint of a class is the same as the lower
limit of the next higher class.
• The method of grouping quantitative data by using cutpoints is
called cutpoint grouping.

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Example: Cutpoint grouping
The U.S. National Center for Health Statistics publishes data on
weights and heights by age and sex in the document Vital and
Health Statistics. The weights shown in the table: Weights, in
pounds, of 37 males aged 18-24 years.

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Example

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Some common terms in cutpoint grouping

• Lower class cutpoint: The smallest value that could go on a

class.
• Upper class cutpoint: The smallest value that could go in the
next-higher class (equivalent to the lower cutpoint of the
next-higher class).
• Class width: The difference between the cutpoints of a class.

• Class mark or midpoint: The average of the two cutpoints of

a class.
For example: for the class 160-under 180 in the example the lower
cutpoint is , upper cutpoint is , class width is , and
class mark/ midpoint is ?

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Class Boundaries or Cut points

• If the non-overlapping limits are considered, for example

118-127, then 128-137, then the first class theoretically
includes all measurements from 117.5 to 127.5.
• These numbers, indicated briefly by the exact numbers 117.5 to
127.5 are called boundaries or true class limits.
• Note that in case of overlapping class intervals, the class
boundaries are same as the class limits.

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Which grouping method should we use?

• Single-value grouping: Use with discrete data in which there

are only a small number of distinct values.
• Limit grouping: Use when the data are expressed as whole
numbers and there are too many distinct values to employ
single-value grouping.
• Cutpoint grouping: Use when the data are continuous and
are expressed with decimals.

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 Thank You

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