ES – 71

ENGINEERING DATA
ANALYSIS

ENGR. MARY CRIS L. AYING-TAMPOS

FACULTY, CET
 COURSE OUTLINE
1. OBTAINING DATA
1.1 Methods of Data Collection
1.2 Planning and Conducting Surveys
1.3 Planning and Conducting Experiments:
Introduction to Design of Experiments

2. PROBABILITY
2.1 Relationship among Events
2.2 Counting Rules Useful in Probability
2.3 Rules of Probability
3. Discrete Probability Distribution
3.1 Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
3.2 Cumulative Distribution Functions
3.3 Expected Values of Random Variables
3.4 Binomial Distribution
3.5 Poisson Distribution
4. Continuous Probability Distribution
4.1 Continuous Random Variables and their Probability
Distribution
4.2 Expected Values of Continuous Random Variables
4.3 Normal Distribution
4.4 Normal Approximation to the Binomial and Poisson
Distribution
4.5 Exponential Distribution
5. Joint Probability Distribution
5.1 Two or Random Variables
5.1.1 Joint Probability Distributions
5.1.2 Marginal Probability Distribution
5.1.3 Conditional Probability Distribution
5.1.4 More than Two Random Variables
5.2 Linear Functions of Random Variables
5.3 General Functions of Random Variables
6. Sampling Distributions and Point Estimation of Parameters
6.1 Point Estimation
6.2 Sampling Distribution and the Central Limit Theorem
6.3 General Concept of Point Estimation
6.3.1 Unbiased Estimator
6.3.2 Variance of a Point Estimator
6.3.3 Standard Error
6.3.4 Mean Squared Error of an Estimator
7. Statistical Intervals
7.1 Confidence Intervals: Simple Sample
7.2 Confidence Intervals: Multiple Samples
7.3 Prediction Intervals
7.4 Tolerance Intervals
8. Test of Hypothesis for a Single Sample
8.1 Hypothesis Testing
8.1.1 One-sided and Two-sided Hypothesis
8.1.2 P-value in Hypothesis Tests
8.1.3 General Procedure for Test of Hypothesis
8.2 Test on the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance
Known
8.3 Test on the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance
Unknown
8.4 Test on the Variance and Statistical Deviation of a Normal
Distribution
8.5 Test on a Population Proportion
9. Statistical Inference of Two Samples
9.1 Inference on the Difference in Means of Two Normal
Distributions, Variances Known
9.2 Inference on the Difference in Means of Two Normal
Distributions, Variances Unknown
9.3 Inference on the Variance of Two Normal
9.4 Inference on Two Population Proportions
10. Simple Linear Regression and Correlation
10.1 Empirical Models
10.2 Regression: Modelling Linear Relationships –
The Least-Squares Approach
10.3 Correlation: Estimating the Strength of Linear Relation
10.4 Hypothesis Tests in Simple Linear Regression
10.4.1 Use of t-tests
10.4.2 Analysis of Variance Approach to Test
Significance of Regression
10.5 Prediction of New Observations
10.6 Adequacy of the Regression Model
10.6.1 Residual Analysis
10.6.2 Coefficient of Determination
 Course References
(1) Myers, R. et. al,. 2012., “Probability and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientist”. 9th Ed.
(2) Hayter, A., 2012., “Probability and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientist”., 4th Ed.
(3) Soong, T., 2004., “Fundamentals of Probability and
Statistics for Engineers”. 1st Ed.
Grading System
Attendance : 5%
Quizzes/Participation : 15%
Prelim Exam : 20%
Midterm Exam : 20%
Prefinal Exam : 20%
Final Exam : 20%
100%

Passing Rate : 50%

THE BEGINNINGS OF STATISTICS

❖ The History of statistics can be said to start around 1749

although, over time, there have been changes to the
interpretation of the word statistics. In early times, the
meaning was restricted to information about states. In
modern terms, “statistics” means both sets of collected
information, as in national accounts and temperature
records, and analytical work which requires statistical
inference.
DEFINITION

❖ Statistics is the sciences and art of dealing with figures

and facts.

❖ Statistics is well defined as the science that deals with

the collection, organization, presentation, analysis and
interpretation of data in order to be able to draw
judgements or conclusions that help in the decision-
making process.
Two Main Divisions of Statistics

❖ Descriptive Statistics deals with the procedures that

organize, summarize and describe quantitative data.

❖ Inferential Statistics deals with making a judgement or a

conclusion about a population based on the findings
from a sample that is taken from the population.
STATISTICAL DATA

❖ A sequence of observation, made on set of objects

included in the sample drawn from population is known
as statistical data.
❖ Data can be defined as the quantitative or qualitative
value of a variable (e.g. number, images, words, figures,
facts or ideas)
❖ It is a lowest unit of information from which other
measurements and analysis can be done.
❖ Data is one of the most important and vital aspect of
any research study.
DATA TYPES
 DATA TYPES

Quantitative
Data
Qualitative
QUANTITATIVE
➢ are measures of values or counts and expressed as
numbers.
QUALITATIVE
➢ Defined as the data that approximates and
characterize.
➢ Non-numerical in nature.
➢ Collected through methods of observations, one-on-
one interviews and similar methods.
 DATA TYPES

Continuous
Quantitative

Discrete
Data

Qualitative
CONTINUOUS DATA (VARIABLE)
➢ Data that can take the form of decimals or continuous
values of varying degrees of precision.
-Ex. Height, Weight
DISCRETE DATA (DISCONTINUOUS)
➢ Data whose value cannot take the form of decimals.
-Ex. Family Size, Enrolment Size
 DATA TYPES

Continuous
Quantitative
Discrete
Data
Attribute
Qualitative
Open
ATTRIBUTE DATA
➢ Data that can be counted for recording and analysis.
-Ex. Size of T-Shirt: XS, M, L, XL, XXL
OPEN
➢ Data that is depending on the sample and not given a
specific value on a possible set of responses or answers.
 DATA TYPES

Continuous
Quantitative
Discrete

Data
Nominal
Attribute
Qualitative Ordinal
Open
NOMINAL DATA
➢ Data defined by an operation which allows making
statements only equality or difference.
-Ex. Gender, Race, Religion, Political Affiliation
ORDINAL DATA
➢ Data defined affiliation operation whereby members of
a particular group are ranked.
-Ex. Awareness, IQ
Ungrouped (Raw) DATA
➢ Are data which are not organized in any specific way.
They are simply the collection of data as they are
gathered.

Grouped DATA
➢ Are raw data organized into groups or categories with
corresponding frequencies. Organized in this manner,
the data is referred to as frequency distribution.
 METHODS OF DATA
COLLECTION

Data collection is the process of gathering and measuring

information on variables of interest, in an established systematic
fashion that enables one to answer stated research questions, test
hypotheses, and evaluate outcomes.
 FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED
BEFORE COLLECTION OF DATA:

❖ Object and scope of the enquiry

❖ Sources of information
❖ Quantitative expression
❖ Techniques of data collection
❖ Unit of collection
 CLASSIFICATION OF DATA
1. PRIMARY DATA
data which are collected a fresh
and for the first time and thus
happen to be original in character
and known as PRIMARY DATA.

2. SECONDARY DATA
data which have been collected by
someone else and which have already
been passed through the statistical
process.
 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION:
PRIMARY DATA

1. Observation
2. Interview
3. Questionnaire
4. Case Study
5. Survey
 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION: PRIMARY DATA
OBSERVATION
Observation method is a method
under which data from the field is collected
with the help of observation by the observer
or by personally going to the field.

ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

Subjective bias Time consuming

eliminated
Current information Limited information
Independent to Unforeseen factors
respondent’s variable
 TYPES OF OBSERVATION
STRUCTURED AND UNSTRUCTURED
1. Structured Observation
when observation is done by characterizing style of
recording the observed information, standardized
conditions of observation , definition of the units to be
observed , selection of pertinent data of observation.

Example: An auditor performing inventory analysis in store

2. Unstructured Observation
when observation is done without any thought before
observation.

Example: Observing children playing with new toys.

 TYPES OF OBSERVATION
PARTICIPANT AND NON-PARTICIPANT

1. Participant
when the Observer is member of the group which he is
observing.

Advantages: 1. Observation of natural behavior

2. Closeness with the group
3. Better understanding

2. Non-participant
when observer is observing people without giving any
information to them.

Advantages: 1. Objectivity and neutrality

2. More willingness of the respondent
 TYPES OF OBSERVATION
CONTROLLED AND UNCONTROLLED

1. Controlled
when the observation takes place in natural
condition. It is done to get spontaneous picture of
life and persons.

2. Uncontrolled
when observation takes place according to
definite pre arranged plans , with experimental
procedure then it is controlled observation
generally done in laboratory under controlled
condition.
 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION: PRIMARY DATA
INTERVIEW METHOD
INTERVIEW METHOD
This method of collecting data
involves presentation or oral-
verbal stimuli and reply in terms
of oral-verbal responses.

Interview Method is an oral verbal communication

where interviewer asks questions (which are aimed
to get information required for study) to
respondent.
 TYPES OF INTERVIEW
• Personal interviews : The interviewer asks questions
generally in a face to face contact to the other person or
persons.
• Structured interviews : in this case, a set of pre- decided
questions are there.
• Unstructured interviews : in this case, we don’t follow a
system of pre-determined questions.
• Focused interviews : attention is focused on the given
experience of the respondent and its possible effects.
• Clinical interviews : concerned with broad underlying
feelings or motivations or with the course of individual’s life
experience, rather than with the effects of the specific
experience, as in the case of focused interview.
 TYPES OF INTERVIEW
• Group interviews : a group of 6 to 8 individuals is
interviewed.
• Qualitative and quantitative interviews : divided on the basis
of subject matter i.e. whether qualitative or quantitative.
• Individual interviews : interviewer meets a single person and
interviews him.
• Selection interviews : done for the selection of people for
certain jobs.
• Depth interviews : it deliberately aims to elicit unconscious
as well as other types of material relating especially to
personality dynamics and motivations.
• Telephonic interviews : contacting samples on telephone.
 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION: PRIMARY DATA
QUESTIONNAIRE METHOD

QUESTIONNAIRE METHOD
This method of data collection is
quite popular, particularly in
case of big enquiries.
The questionnaire is mailed to respondents who are
expected to read and understand the questions
and write down the reply in the space meant for
the purpose in the questionnaire itself. The
respondents have to answer the questions on their
own.
 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION: PRIMARY DATA
QUESTIONNAIRE METHOD
ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

Low cost even if the Low rate of return of duly filled

geographical area is too large questionnaire.

Answers are in respondents' word Slowest method of data

so free from bias. collection.

Adequate time to think for Difficult to know if the expected

answers. respondent have filled the form
or it is filled by someone else.
Non approachable respondents
may be conveniently contacted.

Large samples can be used so

results are more reliable.
 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION: PRIMARY DATA
CASE STUDY METHOD

CASE STUDY METHOD is essentially

an intensive investigation of the
particular unit under
consideration.

ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

They are less costly and less They are subject to selection
time-consuming; they are bias
advantageous when exposure
data is expensive or hard to
obtain.
They are advantageous when They generally do not allow
studying dynamic populations in calculation of incidence
which follow-up is difficult. (absolute risk).
 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION: PRIMARY DATA
SURVEY METHOD
SURVEY METHOD is one of the
common methods of diagnosing
and solving of social problems is
that of undertaking surveys.

ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

Relatively easy to administer Respondents may not feel

encouraged to provide
accurate, honest answers
Can be developed in less time Surveys with closed-ended
(compared to other data- questions may have a lower
collection methods) validity rate than other question
types.
Cost-effective, but cost Data errors due to question non-
depends on survey mode responses may exist.
 SECONDARY DATA:
SOURCES OF DATA
• Publications of Central, state , local
government
• Technical and trade journals
• Books, Magazines, Newspaper
• Reports & publications of industry ,bank, stock
exchange
• Reports by research scholars, Universities,
economist
• Public Records
FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED BEFORE USING
SECONDARY DATA

• Reliability of data – Who, when , which

methods, at what time etc.
• Suitability of data – Object ,scope, and
nature of original inquiry should be studied, as if
the study was with different objective, then that
data is not suitable for current study
• Adequacy of data– Level of accuracy,
• Area differences then data is not adequate
for study
 SELECTION OF PROPER METHOD FOR
COLLECTION OF DATA

• Nature, Scope and object of inquiry

• Availability of Funds
• Time Factor
• Precision Required
 EXAMPLE

“Suppose we are interested to find the average

age of Engineering students. We collect the age’s
data by two methods; either by directly collecting
from each student himself personally or getting their
ages from the university record. The data collected
by the direct personal investigation is called primary
data and the data obtained from the university
record is called secondary data.”
1.2 PLANNING AND
CONDUCTING SURVEYS

A survey is a method of asking respondents some well-

constructed questions.
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

Surveys can take different forms. They can be used to ask only
one question, or they can ask a series of questions. We can use
surveys to test out people’s opinions or to test a hypothesis.

When designing a survey, the following steps are useful:

1. Determine the goal of your survey: What question do you

want to answer?
2. Identify the sample population: Whom will you interview?
3. Choose an interviewing method: face-to-face interview,
phone interview, self-administered paper survey, or internet
survey.
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

4. Decide what questions you will ask in what

order, and how to phrase them. (This is important if
there is more than one piece of information you
are looking for.)

5. Conduct the interview and collect the

information.

6. Analyze the results by making graphs and

drawing conclusions.
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

Example:
1. Martha wants to construct a survey that shows which
sports students at her school like to play the most.

Step 1: List the goal of the survey

Step 2: What population should she interview?
Step 3: How should she administer the survey?
Step 4: Create a data collection sheet that she can use
to record her results
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

Step 1: GOAL
The goal of the survey is to find the answer to the question:
“Which sports do students at Martha’s school like to play the
most?”

Step 2: POPULATION
A sample of the population would include a random sample
of the student population in Martha’s school. A good
strategy would be to randomly select students (using dice or
a random number generator) as they walk into an all-school
assembly.
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

Step 3: METHODS
Face-to-face interviews are a good choice in this case.
Interviews will be easy to conduct since the survey consists of
only one question which can be quickly answered and
recorded, and asking the question face to face will help
eliminate non-response bias.

Step 4: DATA
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

Example:
1. Juan wants to construct a survey that shows how
many hours per week the average student at his school
works.

Step 1: List the goal of the survey

Step 2: What population should he interview?
Step 3: How should he administer the survey?
Step 4: Create a data collection sheet that he can use
to record her results
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

Step 1: GOAL
The goal of the survey is to find the answer to the question “How
many hours per week do you work?”

Step 2: POPULATION
Juan suspects that older students might work more hours per
week than younger students. He decides that a stratified sample
of the student population would be appropriate in this case. The
strata are grade levels 9th through 12th. He would need to find
out what proportion of the students in his school are in each
grade level, and then include the same proportions in his
sample.
 DESIGNING A SURVEY

Step 3: METHODS
Face-to-face interviews are a good choice in this case since
the survey consists of two short questions which can be
quickly answered and recorded.

Step 4: DATA
 THE BASIS OF CONDUCTING AN
EXPERIMENT

1. With an experiment, the researcher is trying to learn

something new about the world, an explanation of 'why'
something happens.

2. The experiment must maintain internal and external

validity, or the results will be useless.

3. When designing an experiment, a researcher must

follow all of the steps of the scientific method, from
making sure that the hypothesis is valid and testable, to
using controls and statistical tests
CHAPTER 2. PROBABILITY
Probability is simply how likely an event is to happen.

𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Experiment – is used to describe any process that generates

a set of data.
Event – consists of a set of possible outcomes of a probability
experiment. Can be one outcome or more than one outcome.

Simple event – an event with one outcome

Compound event – an event with more than one outcome
 PROBABILITY

2.1 SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS

SAMPLE SPACE
The set of all possible outcomes or results of a statistical experiment is called the
sample space and is represented by the letter S.
ELEMENT
Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample
space.
EVENT
Is the subset of this sample space and it is represented by letter E.
Example 1:
Consider the experiment of tossing a dice. If we are interested in the number that
shows on the top face, the sample space would be

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Example 2:
An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a head
occurs. If a tail occurs on the first, flip, then a dice is tossed once. To list the elements of
the sample space providing the most information, we construct the tree diagram
S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}

PROBABILITY
2.1 SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
 Difference between Sample Space and Events
Sample space is set of all possible outcomes of an experiment and event is the subset
of a sample space.

Example 3. An experiment that tosses a coin 3 times.

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT}

1 = event that has only two heads
2 = event that has only two tails

E1 = {HHT, HTH, THH}

E2 = {HTT, THT, TTH}
If we have Events E1, E2, E3, ……. En as all the possible subset of sample space then we
have, 𝑆 = 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ∪ 𝐸3 ∪ ……. ∪ 𝐸𝑛

PROBABILITY
2.1 SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
 Difference between Sample Space and Events

Example 4. An experiment of rolling a dice.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
1 = odd number E1 = {1, 3, 5}
2 = even number E2 = {2, 4, 6}

So we have,
{1, 3, 5} ∪ {2, 4, 6} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
𝑜𝑟 𝑆 = 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2
Hence, we can say union of Events E1 and E2 is S.

Null space – is a subset of the sample that contains no elements and is denoted by the
symbol Ø. It is also called empty space.
PROBABILITY
2.1 SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
 Operations with Events

Intersection of events
The intersection of two events A and B is denoted by the symbol A ∩ B. It is the event
containing all elements that are common to A and B.

For example,
Let A = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15} and B = {1, 3, 5, 8, 12, 15, 17} ; then
A ∩ B = {3, 12, 15}
Let X = {q, w, e, r, t} and Y = {a, s, d, f} ; then X ∩ Y = Ø,
since X and Y have no elements in common

Mutually Exclusive Events A∩B= Ø

We can say that an event is mutually exclusive

if they have no elements in common.

PROBABILITY
2.1 SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
 Operations with Events
Union of events
The union of events A and B is the event containing all the elements that belong to A
or to B or to both and is denoted by the symbol A ∪ B. The elements A ∪ B maybe listed or
defined by the rule A ∪ B = 𝑥 𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑥 ∈ 𝐵
For example,
Let A = {a, e, i, o, u} and B = {b, c, d, e, f} ; then A ∪ B = {a, b, c, d, e, f, i, o, u}
Let X = {1, 2, 3, 4} and Y = {3, 4, 5, 6}; then X ∪ Y = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Complement of an Event
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the set of all elements of S that are not in
A and is denoted by A’.
For example,
Consider the sample space S = {dog, cow, bird, snake, pig}
Let A = {dog, bird, pig}; then A’ = {cow, snake}

PROBABILITY
2.1 SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
 Probability of an Event

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑒𝑡

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 𝐸 = Each probability must lie between 0 and 1 inclusive, and the sum of
𝑛(𝑆)
all probabilities assigned must be equal to 1. Therefore,
0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐸 ≤ 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝑆 = 1

If a die is tossed, the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. In this set, we have a number of
elements equal to 6. Now, if the event is the set of odd numbers in a dice, then we have {1, 3, 5}
as an event. In this set, we have 3 elements. So, the probability of getting odd numbers in a
single throw of dice is given by
3 1
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = =
6 2
PROBABILITY
2.1 SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
 PROBABILITY
2.2 COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

1st Rule: Multiplicative Rule

If operations can be performed in n ways, and if for each of these ways a second operation can
be performed in n2 ways, then two operations can be performed in n1n2 ways
𝑛1 ∗ 𝑛2 ∗ … ∗ 𝑛𝑗
Example 1:
How many 4-digit even number can be formed from 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit can be used
only once?

2nd Rule: The number of permutations of n objects is n!

**A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.

Example 2:
The number of permutations of letters a, b, c, d.
3rd Rule: Permutation Rule

Given a single set of n distinctively different elements, you wish to select r elements from the n and arrange them
𝑛!
within r positions. The number of permutations of the n elements taken r at a time is 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑛−𝑟 !
Example 3:

In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given for a class of 25 graduate students in a
statistics department. If each student can receive at most one award, how many possible selections are there?

Example 4:

A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club consisting of 50 people. How many different
choices of officers are possible if

(a) there are no restrictions;

(b) A will serve only if he is president;

(c) B and C will serve together or not at all:

(d) D and E will not serve together?

2.2 COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

4th Rule: Partition Rule
Suppose a single set of n distinctively different elements exists. You wish to partition them into k
sets, with the first set containing n1 elements, the second containing n2 elements, …, and the kth
set containing nk elements. The number of different partitions is
𝑛!
where, 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑘 = 𝑛
𝑛1!𝑛2!…𝑛k!

Example 5:
In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs to have 10 players
standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and
3 seniors, respectively. How many different ways can they be arranged in a row if only their
class level will be distinguished?

2.2 COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

5th Rule: Combinations Rule
A sample of r elements is to be chosen from a set of n elements. The number of different
samples of r samples that can be selected from n is equal to
𝑛!
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !

Example 6:
A young boy asks his mother to get five Game-Boy cartridges from his collection of 10 arcade
and 5 sports games. How many ways are there that his mother will get 3 arcade and 2 sports
games, respectively?

2.2 COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

 PROBABILITY
2.3 RULES OF PROBABILITY

Before discussing the rules of probability, we state the following definitions:

• Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur at the same time.
• The probability that Event A occurs, given that Event B has occurred, is called conditional
probability. The conditional probability of Event A, given Event B, is denoted by the symbol
P (A|B).
• The complement of an event is the event not occurring. The probability that Event A will not
occur is denoted by P (A’).
• The probability that Events A and B both occur is the probability of the intersection of A and
B. the probability of the intersection of Events A and B is denoted by P (A ∩ B). If Events A
and B are mutually exclusive, P (A ∩ B) = 0
• The probability that Events A or B occur is the probability of the union of A and B. The
probability of the union of Events A and B is denoted by P (A ∪ B).
• If the occurrence of Event A changes the probability of Event B, then Events A and B are
dependent. On the other hand, if the occurrence of Event A does not change the probability
of Event B, then Events A and B are independent.
Rule of Addition
Rule 1: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then:
P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Rule 2: If events A and B are not mutually exclusive events, then:
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

Example 1:
A student goes to the library. The probability that she checks out (a) a work of fiction is 0.40, (b) a
work of non-fiction is 0.30, and (c) both fiction and non-fiction is 0.20. What is the probability that the
student checks out a work of fiction, non-fiction, or both?
Solution:
Let F = the event that the student checks out fiction;
Let N = the event that the student checks out non-fiction.
Then, based on the rule of addition:
P(A ∪ B) = P(F) + P(N) – P(F ∩ N)
P(A ∪ B) = 0.4 + 0.3 – 0.2 = 0.5

2.3 RULES OF PROBABILITY

Rule of Multiplication:
Rule 1: When two events A and B are independent, then:
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B)

Dependent – Two outcomes are said to be dependent if knowing that one of the outcomes has
occurred affects the probability that the other occurs.
Conditional Probability – an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B
occurs after event A has already occurred. The probability is denoted by P(B|A).
Independent Occurrent: P(A|B) = P(A) ; P(B|A) = P(B)

Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B|A)
P(A ∩ B)
Where P(B|A) = , provided that P(A) ≠ 0
P(A)

2.3 RULES OF PROBABILITY

Example 1:
A day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do not meet
customer requirements. Two parts are selected randomly without replacement from the
batch. What is the probability that the second part is defective given that the first part is
defective?

Solution:
Let A = event that the first parts selected is defective
Let B = event that the second part selected is defective.
P(B|A) = ?
If the first part is defective, prior to selecting the second part, the batch contains 849
parts, of which 49 are defective, therefore
P(B|A) = 49/849

2.3 RULES OF PROBABILITY

Example 2:
An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are drawn without
replacement from the urn. What is the probability that both of the marbles are black?

Solution:
Let A = the event that the first marble is black;
Let B = the event that the second marble is black.
• In the beginning, there are 10 marbles in the urn, 4 of which are black. Therefore,
P(A) = 4/10
• After the first selection, there are 9 marbles in the urn, 3 of which are black.
Therefore, P(B|A) = 3/9

P (A ∩ B) = P(A)* P(B|A)
4 3
P (A ∩ B) = = 0.133
10 9

2.3 RULES OF PROBABILITY

Example 3:
Two cards are selected from a pack of cards. What is the probability that they
are both queen?

Solution:
Let A = first card which is a queen
Let B = second card which is also a queen
P (A ∩ B) = P(A)* P(B|A)
4 3
P(A) = and P(B|A) =
52 51
4 3 1
P (A ∩ B) = 52 51
= 221 = 0.004525

2.3 RULES OF PROBABILITY

Rule of Subtraction:
The probability that event A will occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that event A will
not occur.

P(A) = 1 – P(A’)
Example 1:
The probability of Bill not graduating in college is 0.8. What is the probability that Bill
will graduate from college?
Solution:
P(A) = 1 – 0.8 = 0.2

2.3 RULES OF PROBABILITY