Statistics and Probability

12
Probability
Probability theory, the study of chance, began in the 17th
century when two great mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and
Pierre de Fermat, corresponded over problems arising from
games of chance. Since then, probability has become an
essential branch of mathematics that is used widely in fields
such as weather forecasting, finance, insurance, politics and
risk assessment of new medical treatments.
 N E W C E N T U R Y M AT H S A D V A N C E D
for the A ustralian Curriculum 10 þ10A

Shutterstock.com/Robert Adrian Hillman

n Chapter outline n Wordbank
Proficiency strands relative frequency The frequency of an event over
12-01 Relative frequency U F PS R C repeated trials as a fraction of the total number of trials
12-02 Venn diagrams U F PS R C tree diagram A diagram of branches for listing all the
12-03 Two-way tables U F PS R C possible outcomes of a multi-step chance experiment
12-04 Two- and three-step
experiments U F PS R C trial One go or run of a repeated probability experiment,
12-05 Selecting with and for example, one roll of a die
without replacement U F PS R C two-step experiment A chance experiment with two steps
12-06 Dependent and or stages, such as rolling a pair of dice
independent events U F PS R C
two-way table A way of grouping items into two
12-07 Conditional
overlapping categories, such as gender and the ability to
probability U F PS R C
drive a car
Venn diagram A diagram of circles (usually overlapping)
for grouping items into categories

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Probability

n In this chapter you will:

• calculate relative frequencies from given and collected data to estimate probabilities of events
involving ‘and’ or ‘or’
• describe events using language of probability of ‘at least’, ‘A or B but not both’, ‘A or B or
both’ and ‘and’
• list all outcomes for two- and three-step chance experiments, with and without replacement,
using tree diagrams or arrays, and assign probabilities to outcomes and determine the
probabilities for events
• represent events in Venn diagrams and two-way tables and solve related problems
• understand the difference between dependent and independent events, and the product rule
for independent events
• solve problems involving compound events and conditional probability

SkillCheck
Worksheet
1 If a die is rolled, which of the following is more likely? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
StartUp assignment 10
A a number less than 3 B an even number
MAT10SPWK10070
C a number that is 3 or more D a number that is a prime number
2 A bag contains five 10-cent coins, four 20-cent coins and three 50-cent coins. A coin is
drawn at random from the bag.
a How many outcomes are in the sample space?
b Are the outcomes equally likely?
3 For the spinner shown, the red sector is twice as large as each
of the other sectors. Find the probability that when the
spinner is spun, the arrow lands on:
a red b purple or blue c not green
4 A normal die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling:
a a 7? b a number less than 7?
5 The probability of Danica hitting a bullseye when playing darts is 0.6. What is the
probability of Danica not hitting the bullseye?
6 Aditi bought 10 tickets in a raffle in which 400 tickets were sold and there is only one prize.
What is the probability that Aditi will win the prize? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
A 1 B 2.5% C 0.0025 D 0.975
400
7 The probability of cloudy skies tomorrow is 0.85. What is the probability of clear skies?

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Technology worksheet
12-01 Relative frequency Excel worksheet: Long
run proportion

Experimental probability is based on the results of a trial that has been repeated many times, such MAT10SPCT00023

as testing the effectiveness of 100 light globes, or relies on past statistics, such as the number of Technology worksheet
babies born last year who were girls. It estimates theoretical probability using relative frequency, Excel spreadsheet:
the number of times an event occurs compared to the total frequency of outcomes. Long run proportion

MAT10SPCT00053

Summary Puzzle sheet

Dice probability
Experimental probability MAT10SPPS00017

number of times the event happened

PðEÞ ¼
total number of trials
frequency of E
or PðEÞ ¼
total frequency
Expected frequency is the expected number of times an event will occur over repeated trials.
Expected frequency ¼ theoretical probability 3 number of trials.

Example 1
James rolled a die 100 times and recorded Outcome Frequency
the results in a table. 1 23
a Find the experimental probability of rolling: 2 19
i an even number 3 11
ii an even number or a number greater than 4 4 12
iii an even number less than or equal to 4. 5 18
b Calculate the probability of rolling a 2 or 3 6 17
i as an experimental probability
ii as a theoretical probability.
c If the die is rolled 100 times, what is the expected number of times of obtaining a 2 or a 3?
How does this compare with James’ observed number of times?

Solution
a i Rolls of even numbers ¼ 19 þ 12 þ 17 Frequencies of 2, 4, 6
¼ 48
48
Experimental probability PðevenÞ ¼
100
12
¼
25

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Probability

ii Rolls of even numbers or numbers greater than 4 Frequencies of 2, 4, 6, 5

¼ 19 þ 12 þ 17 þ 18
¼ 66
66
Experimental probability Pðeven or > 4Þ ¼
100
33
¼
50
iii Rolls of even numbers less than or Frequencies of 2 and 4
equal to 4 ¼ 19 þ 12
¼ 31
Experimental probability
31
Pðeven and  4Þ ¼
100
b i Rolls of 2 or 3 ¼ 19 þ 11 Frequencies of 2 and 3
¼ 30
30
Experimental probability Pð2 or 3Þ ¼
100
3
¼
10
2
ii Theoretical probability Pð2 or 3Þ ¼
6
1
¼
3
1
c Expected number of rolls of 2 or 3 ¼ 3 100 Probability 3 number of trials
3
¼ 33:333 . . .
 33
From the table, the observed number of heads ¼ 19 þ 11 ¼ 30, which is close to 33.

Exercise 12-01 Relative frequency

See Example 1 1 Aashima spun this spinner 200 times and recorded the results in the table.

Event Frequency
Red 85
Green 42
Blue 28
Yellow 15
Purple 30

a Calculate, as a decimal, the experimental probability (relative frequency) that the arrow points to:
i red ii blue iii green
b Calculate, as a decimal, the theoretical probability that the arrow points to:
i red ii blue iii green

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c Are the experimental and theoretical probabilities similar?
d For 200 spins, what is the expected frequency of red or purple based on the theoretical
probability? How does this compare with the observed frequency?
2 A bag contains 7 blue, 6 yellow, Outcome Frequency
5 red and 2 green marbles. Red 20
Lamisa selects a marble at Blue 38
random, records its colour
Yellow 33
and then returns it to the bag.
Green 9
Lamisa repeats this process
100 times and the results
are shown in the table.
a Find the relative frequency of selecting a marble that is:
i red ii blue iii yellow iv green
b What is the theoretical probability of selecting a marble that is:
i red? ii blue? iii yellow? iv green?
c Are the experimental and theoretical probabilities similar?
d If the process is repeated 100 times, what is the expected frequency of a selecting a yellow or
green marble? How does this compare with the observed frequency?
3 A coin is tossed. Outcome Frequency
a What is the expected number of obtaining Head
heads if the coin is tossed 100 times? Tail
b Toss a coin 100 times. Copy this table and
record your results in it.
c Calculate, as a decimal:
i the experimental probability of tossing a head
ii the theoretical probability of tossing a tail.
d Are the experimental and theoretical probabilities similar?
4 A die was repeatedly rolled and the results Outcome Frequency
are shown in the table. 1 95
a How many times was the die rolled? 2 119
b Find the experimental probability (as 3 108
a decimal) of rolling: 4 87
i an odd number 5 78
ii a number less than 4 6 113
iii a 2 or a 3
iv a number less than 4 or even.
c Find the theoretical probability (as a decimal) of rolling:
i an odd number ii a number less than 4
iii a 2 or a 3 iv a number less than 4 or even.
d Compare the experimental probabilities to the theoretical probabilities.

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Probability

5 Place 5 blue counters, 2 red counters and 3 yellow Event Tally Frequency
counters in a bag. Select a counter at random from Blue
the bag, note its colour and return the counter to Red
the bag. Repeat this 60 times. Copy this table and Yellow
record your results in it.
a What is the experimental probability of selecting:
i a blue counter? ii a red counter?
iii a yellow counter? iv a red or blue counter?
b What is the theoretical probability of selecting:
i a blue counter? ii a red counter?
iii a yellow counter? iv a red or blue counter?
c Are the experimental probabilities similar to the theoretical probabilities?
6 Denise spun this spinner 50 times and the results are shown in the table.

Event Frequency
Red 15
Blue 6
Yellow 24
Green 5

a What is the experimental probability (as a decimal) of the arrow stopping on

i red? ii blue? iii yellow? iv green?
b What is the calculated probability (as a decimal) of the arrow stopping on
i red? ii blue? iii yellow? iv green?
c Are the experimental and calculated probabilities similar?
d What is the expected number of times of the arrow stopping on a colour that is not yellow?
How does this compare with Denise’s observed number of times?
7 A die is rolled 100 times.
a What is the calculated probability of rolling a 6? (Express your answer as a fraction and as a
decimal.)
b How many times would you expect a 6 to appear if the die was rolled 100 times?
c Roll a die 100 times and record your results in a table similar to the one shown.
Outcome Tally Frequency
1
2
3
4
5
6
d What is the experimental probability or relative frequency of rolling a 6? (Express your
answer as a fraction and as a decimal.)
e How does the calculated probability of rolling a 6 compare with the experimental
probability?

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8 Two dice are rolled and the sum of the 36
numbers appearing uppermost was recorded in
32
the frequency histogram.
a How many times were the two dice rolled? 28

b Based on these results, what is the 24

Frequency
experimental probability (or relative 20
frequency) of obtaining:
16
i a sum of 2?
ii a sum of 7? 12

iii a sum of 10? 8

iv a sum greater than 7? 4
v a sum less than 7?
vi a sum of 7 or 8? 0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
vii a sum that is even and greater than 6? Sum of the two dice

9 School-aged children at several shopping centres Mode of

were asked how they travelled to school. transport Frequency
a How many students were surveyed? Walk 27
b Based on these results, find the probability that Bus 80
a student chosen at random will: Car 62
i walk to school Train 21
ii be driven to school Bicycle 5
iii catch a bus to school Skateboard 1
iv catch a train to school Other 4
v ride a skateboard to school
c What mode of transport could ‘Other’ include?
d Survey 100 students at your school and make up a table showing the results. How do the
results from your school compare with the results from the survey?

Video tutorial
12-02 Venn diagrams Venn diagrams

MAT10SPVT10014
A Venn diagram is a diagram of circles (usually overlapping) Puzzle sheet
that is used to group items into categories. A rectangle
Venn diagrams
represents the whole group while the circles represent matching activity
categories. Items common to two or more categories are MAT10SPPS10071
placed in the intersection (overlapping region) of the circles.
Puzzle sheet
The Venn diagram was invented in 1880 by English
mathematician and priest, John Venn (18341923). And/or problems

MAT10SPPS00016
Pictures from History

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Probability

Example 2
The Venn diagram shows the results of a survey
on what type of movies – action (A), comedy (C) A C
or drama (D) – that students prefer to watch. 11
28 19
a How many students were surveyed? 8
13 5
b How many students preferred to watch two
types of movies only? 15
D
c Calculate, as a decimal, the probability of 1
selecting a student who prefers to watch:
i action movies only ii action or comedy movies but not dramas
iii action and drama movies iv all types.
d A student is chosen from those who like action and comedy movies. What is the
probability that they also like to watch drama movies?
e What is the probability of selecting a student who does not like watching any of the
three types?

Solution
a Number of students ¼ 28 þ 11 þ 8 þ 13 þ 5 þ 19 þ 15 þ 1
¼ 100
b 29 students only preferred two types of movies 11 þ 13 þ 5 ¼ 29
c i Students preferring action movies only ¼ 28 The region of A that
28 doesn’t overlap C or D.
Pðaction onlyÞ ¼
100
¼ 0:28
ii Students preferring action or comedy only ¼ 28 þ 19 þ 11 The regions of A and C
¼ 58 that don’t overlap
58 with D.
Pðaction or comedy onlyÞ ¼
100
¼ 0:58
iii Students preferring action and drama ¼ 13 þ 8 The regions where
¼ 21 A and D intersect.
21
Pðaction and dramaÞ ¼
100
¼ 0:21
iv Students preferring all types ¼ 8 The region where the
8 three circles intersect.
Pðall typesÞ ¼
100
¼ 0:08
d Students preferring action and comedy ¼ 11 þ 8
¼ 19
Students preferring action and comedy and drama ¼ 8
8
Pðdrama if preferring action and comedyÞ ¼
19
¼ 0:42 ðto 2 decimal placesÞ

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e There is one student who doesn’t prefer action, comedy or drama.
1
Pðnot action, comedy or dramaÞ ¼
100
¼ 0:01

‘And’ vs ‘or’
For two categories or events A and B, the phrase
‘A and B’ means to have both of them occurring A B
together. For example, ‘to drive a car’ and ‘to ride
a bus’ means to do both things.
If A and B are overlapping, the phrase ‘A or B’
means to have A or B or both. For example, ‘to
drive a car’ or ‘to ride a bus’ means to drive a car
only, or to ride a bus only, or to do both. In this Overlapping events: ‘A or B’
means A or B or both
case, ‘A or B’ actually includes ‘A and B’ so this is
an example of an inclusive ‘or’.
If A and B are mutually exclusive, this means that
A B
they are not overlapping and on a Venn diagram
they appear as two separate circles. For mutually
exclusive categories or events, the phrase ‘A or B’
means to have A only or B only (but not both). For
example, ‘male’ or ‘female’ means to be male, or
female, but not both. In this case, ‘A or B’ excludes Mutually exclusive events: ‘A or B’
‘A and B’ so this is an example of an exclusive ‘or’. means A or B but not both

Example 3
A survey of 110 students at Lambavare High
showed that 34 students do Art, 65 students
do Computer Studies, and 23 students do
Computer Studies and Art.
a Represent this information on a Venn
diagram.
b How many students do Art or Computer
Studies but not both?
Corbis/Purestock

c What is the probability of randomly

selecting a student from this group who:
i does Computer Studies?
ii does Art and Computer Studies?
iii does Art or Computer Studies?
iv does neither Art nor Computer Studies?

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Probability

Solution
a S ¼ students at Lambavare High
S
A ¼ students doing Art
A C
C ¼ students doing Computer Studies
11 23 42
There are 23 students who do both Art and
Computer Studies.
) Students doing Art only ¼ 34  23 34

¼ 11
) Students doing Computer Studies only ¼ 65  23
¼ 42
) Students who do neither Art nor Computer Studies ¼ 110  11  42  23
¼ 34
b Number of students doing Art or Computer Studies only ¼ 11 þ 42
¼ 53
c i 65 students do Computer Studies
PðComputer StudiesÞ ¼ 65
110
13
¼
22
23
ii PðArt and Computing StudiesÞ ¼
110
iii Number of students who do Art or Computer Studies ¼ 11 þ 23 þ 42
¼ 76
76
PðArt or Computer StudiesÞ ¼
110
38
¼
55
34
iv Pðneither Art nor Computer StudiesÞ ¼
110
17
¼
55

Exercise 12-02 Venn diagrams

See Example 2 1 Fifty people were asked as to whether they have
breakfast (B) or lunch (L) on a weekday. The results B L
are shown in the Venn diagram.
10 12 28
a What is the probability of selecting a person who has:
i breakfast? ii lunch?
iii breakfast but not lunch? iv breakfast and lunch?
v breakfast or lunch only?
b Of the people who have lunch, find the probability that a person also had breakfast.

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2 The Venn diagram shows the number of Year 10 students who See Example 3
play basketball (B), touch football (F) or tennis (T). B F
a How many students are in Year 10? 33 10
38
b Find the probability of selecting a student who plays: 6
5 8
i basketball only ii tennis only
21
iii touch football and tennis iv touch football or tennis
v basketball but not touch football vi all three sports. T 35
c Of the students who play touch football, find the probability of
selecting a student who also plays tennis.
3 The Venn diagram shows the results of a survey asking people
how they relax at home: watching television (TV) or reading (R). TV R
a How many people were surveyed?
56 17 35
b Find the probability of selecting a person who only watches
TV to relax.
27
c What is the probability of selecting a person who doesn’t
watch TV or read to relax?
d Of the people who read, find the probability that they also watch TV to relax.
4 Of the 54 Year 10 Music students, 23 students sing (S), 43 students play a musical instrument
(P) and 12 students sing and play a musical instrument.
a Show this information on a Venn diagram.
b Find the probability of selecting a Music student who:
i sings or plays an instrument ii sings only
iii plays a musical instrument only iv sings or plays an instrument, but not both
5 The Venn diagram shows the number of countries that won
medals at the XXI Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver, 2010. G S
a How many countries competed at these winter Olympics? 1 1
3
b What is the probability of selecting a country at random that: 15
2 4
i won only gold medals?
ii won gold, silver and bronze medals?
iii won gold or silver medals, but not bronze? B
19
iv did not win a gold or silver medal?
c Of the countries that won medals, what is the probability of selecting a country that
i won gold medals? ii won bronze, but not gold or silver?
6 At Riverside College, Year 10 students are asked what language they are studying. 64 students
take Indonesian (I), 47 students take Japanese (J), 15 students take both Indonesian and
Japanese, and 27 do not study a language.
a How many students are in Year 10?
b Show the information on a Venn diagram.
c How many students studied only one language?
d Find the probability of selecting a Year 10 student at random who studies:
i Indonesian but not Japanese ii Japanese but not Indonesian
iii no languages iv only one language.

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Probability

7 People at several shopping centres were asked on

which day they preferred to shop  Monday to
MF SA
Friday (MF), Saturday (SA) or Sunday (SU). The 10
38 75
results are shown in the Venn diagram.
12
a How many people were surveyed? 19 5
b What is the probability of selecting a person who prefers 41
to shop on: SU
i Monday to Friday? ii Saturday?
iii Sunday? iv on the weekend only?
v on Saturday or Sunday? vi any day (has no preference)?
c Find the probability of selecting a person who only prefers Saturday or Sunday but not both.
d Is it necessary to include the rectangle in this Venn diagram? Give reasons.
8 The Venn diagram shows the number of countries
that won gold, silver, bronze or no medals at the G S
2012 Summer Olympic Games in London. 2
5 7
a Find the total number of countries that competed at the 43
2012 London games. 4 13
b What is the probability of randomly selecting a country that: 11
i won a silver medal only? ii won one medal only? B
iii won at least two medals? iv won at most one medal only? 119

c Out of the countries that won gold medals, find the probability of selecting a country that:
i won gold and silver but not bronze ii won gold, silver and bronze.

Worksheet

Two-way tables 12-03 Two-way tables

MAT10SPWK10072
A two-way table is another way of grouping items into overlapping categories, especially when
Puzzle sheet
there are many overlaps that cannot easily be represented by a Venn diagram.
Combined events:
Two-way tables

MAT10SPPS00014
Example 4
Year 11 students at Southbank Part-time work No part-time work
College were surveyed on whether Male 43 27
they had part-time jobs. Female 35 31
a How many students are in Year 11 at Southbank College?
b How many students had part-time work?
c How many male students were in Year 11?
d What is the probability of selecting a student at random who:
i works part-time? ii is female and works part-time?
iii is male and doesn’t work? iv doesn’t work?
e What is the probability of selecting a student working part-time given that:
i the student is male? ii the student is female?

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Solution
a Number of Year 11 students ¼ 43 þ 27 þ 35 þ 31
¼ 136
b Students with part-time work ¼ 43 þ 35
¼ 78
c Male students in Year 11 ¼ 43 þ 27
¼ 70
78
d i Pðstudent works part-timeÞ ¼
136
39
¼
68
ii There are 35 female students who work part-time.

Pðfemale and part-time workÞ ¼ 35

136
iii There are 27 males who don’t work.

Pðmale and not workingÞ ¼ 27

136
iv Number of students not working ¼ 27 þ 31 ¼ 58

Pðnot workingÞ ¼ 58 ¼ 29
136 68
e i There are 70 male students and 43 of them work part-time.
43
Pðworking part-time given that student is maleÞ ¼
70
ii There are 66 female students and 35 of them work part-time.
35
Pðworking part-time given that student is femaleÞ ¼
66

Exercise 12-03 Two-way tables

1 People attending the Staying Alive Fitness Swimming Gym See Example 4
Centre early on a Saturday morning either Male 32 53
went swimming or did a workout in the Female 24 41
gym. The numbers are shown in the table
on the right.
a How many people went to the fitness centre?
b Find the probability that a person selected at random:
i was female and went swimming
ii was male and did a workout in the gym
iii went swimming.
c Find the percentage (to the nearest whole number) of females who did a workout in
the gym.

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Probability

2 Year 10 students at Baramvale High were Bowling Indoor soccer

given a choice of two activities, bowling Boys 25 48
or indoor soccer on a wet sports Girls 43 12
afternoon. Their choices are shown in the
table.
a How many students were in Year 10?
b How many students:
i went bowling? ii played indoor soccer?
c What is the probability of randomly selecting a student who went bowling?
d What is the probability of randomly selecting a girl who played indoor soccer?
3 The composition of the Legislative Assembly (the lower house) in the NSW State Parliament
(in 2012) is shown in the table.
Liberal/Nationals Labor Independents/Greens
Male 59 11 3
Female 11 9 0
a How many members of parliament (MPs) are there in the Legislative Assembly?
b Find the percentage probability of randomly selecting an MP who is:
i female ii a male and in the Opposition iii an independent or Green
c What percentage probability of:
i Government MPs are female? ii Opposition MPs are female?
d Compare your answers to part c and comment on the difference between the two results.
4 People were asked to name their Pizza Hamburger Fish and Chips
favourite takeaway food. The results Men 22 35 18
are shown in the table below. Women 43 26 6
a How many people were surveyed?
b Find the probability (as a decimal) that a person selected at random:
i is male ii is female and likes fish and chips
iii likes pizza iv is male and likes hamburgers.
c If a male is selected at random, what is the probability that his favourite takeaway food is
pizza?
5 Year 7 students were asked about their Boys Girls
favourite drink. The results are in the Water 21 35
table below. Milk 11 12
a How many students were in Year 7? Juice 15 17
b What is the probability of randomly Soft drink 31 18
selecting a student that:
i prefers water?
ii is a boy and likes milk?
iii is a girl and likes soft drinks?
c What is the probability that if a girl is randomly selected, she prefers water?

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6 A survey looked at whether people ate Exercise No exercise
breakfast and whether they exercised Ate breakfast 72 27
regularly. The results are shown in the Did not eat breakfast 38 63
two-way table.
a How many people were surveyed?
b What percentage of people exercised?
c Find the percentage probability of picking a
person at random who:
i eats breakfast
ii does not exercise regularly
iii eats breakfast and exercises regularly

Shutterstock.com/kurhan
iv does not eat breakfast and doesn’t exercise.
d Of the people who exercise regularly, what
is the probability of picking someone who
eats breakfast?
7 Students at Granthorp High School were asked to indicate their preference for dark or milk
chocolate in a survey.
Milk chocolate
Like Dislike
Like 545 134
Dark chocolate
Dislike 157 42

a How many students attended Granthorp High?

b What is the probability of selecting a student at random who:
i likes dark chocolate?
ii likes both milk chocolate and dark chocolate?
iii likes dark chocolate but dislikes milk chocolate?
iv dislikes both dark and milk chocolate?

12-04 Two- and three-step experiments

A two- or three-step experiment is a chance experiment that has two or three parts or stages, for
example:
• rolling two or three dice
• drawing two or three prizes in a raffle
• observing the weather each day over a weekend or a long weekend
• throwing two or three coins together
The sample space for two-step experiments can be displayed using lists, tables or tree diagrams
but the sample space for three-step experiments is best displayed using a tree diagram.

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Probability

Example 5
A coin is tossed and a die is rolled.
a Use a table to display the sample space.
b Find the probability of obtaining:
i a tail and a 3 ii a head and an even number.

Solution
a The sample space of a coin is a head (H) and a tail (T).
The sample space for a die is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
The sample space of tossing a coin and rolling a die is
shown in the table below.
Die
1 2 3 4 5 6
H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
Coin
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
Using a table ensures that all
outcomes are counted
b i There are 12 outcomes in the sample space.
) Pða tail and a 3Þ ¼ PðT3Þ ¼ 1
12
ii There are three outcomes that make up the event a
head and an even number: H2, H4, H6
3
) Pða head and an even numberÞ ¼
12
1
¼
4

Video tutorial Tree diagrams

Tree diagrams A tree diagram lists all the possible outcomes of each stage. Branches stretch out to show the
MAT10SPVT10013 possible pathways of outcomes at each step or stage. An outcomes column at the end of the
Worksheet
diagram lists the sample space.
Tree diagrams

MAT10SPWK10073

Puzzle sheet

Combined events: Tree

diagrams

MAT10SPPS00015

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Example 6
Two coins are tossed.
a Use a tree diagram to list the sample space.
b Find the probability of tossing:
i two heads ii a head and a tail (in any order).

Solution
a There are 2 outcomes for the first coin, followed by 2 outcomes for the second
coin. There are 2 3 2 ¼ 4 possible outcomes.
First Second Outcomes
coin coin
H HH

H
T HT
Using a tree diagram ensures
H TH that all outcomes are counted
T
T TT
b i There is one outcome out of a possible 4 for two heads.

) Pð2 headsÞ ¼ 1
4
ii There are 2 outcomes for a head and a tail (ticked on the tree diagram).
2
) Pða head and a tailÞ ¼
4
1
¼
2

Exercise 12-04 Two- and three-step experiments

1 The positions of captain and vice-captain of a netball team are to be selected from Cassandra, See Example 5
Ashleigh, Gemma, Jodie, Erin and Robyn.
a List the possible pairings of captain and vice-captain.
b What is the probability of Ashleigh being captain or vice-captain?
c What is the probability of Erin becoming vice-captain?

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2 Two dice are rolled.

a Copy and complete the table below to list the sample space.
Second die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1, 1 1, 2
2
First 3
die 4 4, 3
5
6
b How many possible outcomes are there?
c Find the probability of:
i rolling doubles ii rolling two even numbers
iii rolling at least one 2 iv rolling two numbers greater than 3
v rolling one odd and one even number
vi rolling two numbers so that the first number is greater than the second number.
See Example 6 3 Three coins are tossed.
a Copy and complete the tree diagram to list the First Second Third Outcomes
sample space. coin coin coin
b How many outcomes are there in the sample H HHH
H
space? T
c Use the tree diagram to find these probabilities. H H
i P(3 heads) T
T
ii P(2 heads) H
iii P(3 tails) H
T
iv P(head, then tail and then head) T
H
v P(2 heads or 3 heads) T
T
d Find the probability of:
i tossing at least 1 tail ii tossing at most 2 tails.
e If three coins are tossed 200 times, find the expected number of:
i tossing two heads ii tossing no tails.
4 Use a tree diagram to display all possible outcomes when a coin is tossed and a die is rolled.
5 A tetrahedral die (numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4) and a normal six-sided die are rolled.
a Construct a table to list the outcomes in the sample space.
b How many outcomes are in the sample space?
c Find the probability of rolling:
i doubles
ii two even numbers
iii one even and one odd number
iv a pair of numbers that are both less than 4
v a pair of numbers that are both greater than 4.

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6 Two normal dice are rolled and the sum of the two numbers is calculated.
a Copy and complete this table to show all possible sums.
Second die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2
2
First 3 7
die 4
5
6 11
b Find the of probability of rolling a sum:
i of 5 ii of 12 iii of 7 iv that is even
v less than 2 vi more than 7 vii at least 7 viii between 4 and 8.
7 Four coins are tossed.
a Use a tree diagram to list the sample space.
b Find the probability of tossing:
i 4 heads ii 1 head iii 2 tails
iv at least 1 tail v 2 heads and then 2 tails vi not more than 1 tail
c If four coins are tossed 1000 times, find the expected number of:
i 4 heads ii 2 heads and 2 tails iii at least one tail

Mental skills 12 Maths without calculators

The unitary method with percentages

The unitary method is used when you are only given a percentage of an amount and you
need to find the amount. It is called the unitary method because we find 1% of the amount
first, then multiply that by 100 to find the whole (100%).
1 Study each example.
a If 8% of a number is 24, what is the number?
8% of the number ¼ 24
[ 1% of the number ¼ 24 4 8 ¼ 3
[ 100% of the number ¼ 3 3 100 ¼ 300.
The number is 300. Check: 8% 3 300 ¼ 24
b If 15% of an amount is $90, what is the whole amount?
15% of the amount ¼ $90
[ 1% of the amount ¼ $90 4 15 ¼ $6
[ 100% of the amount ¼ $6 3 100 ¼ $600.
The amount is $600. Check: 15% 3 $600 ¼ $90

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2 Find the whole amount if:

a 5% of the amount is $35 b 11% of the amount is $88
c 20% of the amount is 80 d 6% of the amount is 42
e 90% of the amount is $270 f 15% of the amount is $60
g 40% of the amount is 100 h 120% of the amount of $360
i 25% of the amount is $75 j 8% of the amount is 40

Investigation: The birth month paradox

A paradox is a statement or proposition that seems impossible but is actually true.

1 Copy this table.
Group Outcome (Y or N)
1
2
3
4
5
2 Randomly select a group of 5 people and ask them what month they were born in. If two
or more people have the same birth month, record a Y in the table for Group 1, otherwise
write N.
3 Repeat this process 4 more times, recording your results in the table.
4 Combine your results with those of six other students so that you have the outcomes for
30 groups.
5 What fraction of the groups had repeated birth months?
6 Obtain the results of another group of six students. What fraction of the groups had a
repeated birth month?
7 The birth month paradox is that in any randomly selected group of 5 people, the
probability that at least two people have the same birth month is greater than 0.5. Have
your results shown this to be true?
8 Can you show the following?
a For every 23 people selected at random, the probability that at least 2 people will share
the same birthday is 50%.
b If 30 people are selected at random, this probability is 70%.
c If 50 people are selected at random, this probability is 97%.

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Worksheet
Selecting with and without
12-05 replacement Multi-step experiments

MAT10SPWK10074

In two- and three-step experiments where an item is selected repeatedly, the outcome of the second
or third step may or may not be affected by the outcome of the previous step. This depends upon
whether each selected item is returned to the set of items before the next item is selected. If it is, then
this is called selecting ‘with replacement’. If it isn’t, then it is called selecting ‘without replacement’.

Example 7
Two cards are drawn from a set of cards numbered 1 to 5, to form a two-digit number.
a Make a list of all possible outcomes if the cards are drawn:
5 1
i with replacement ii without replacement. 2

4
b If the first card is replaced before the second card is drawn, find the probability that the
number formed is:
i even ii greater than 30 iii divisible by 5.
c If the first card is not replaced, find the probability that the number formed is:
i even ii odd iii less than 20.
Solution
a i The possible outcomes, with replacement, are:
11 21 31 41 51
12 22 32 42 52
13 23 33 43 53
14 24 34 44 54
15 25 35 45 55
There are 5 3 5 ¼ 25 different outcomes possible.
ii The possible outcomes, without replacement, are:
12 21 31 41 51
13 23 32 42 52
14 24 34 43 53
15 25 35 45 54
There are 5 3 4 ¼ 20 different outcomes possible.
b i There are 10 even numbers.

Pðeven numberÞ ¼ 10 ¼ 2
25 5
ii There are 15 numbers greater than 30.

Pðnumber > 30Þ ¼ 15 ¼ 3

25 5

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iii There are 5 numbers divisible by 5. 15, 25, 35, 45 and 55

Pðnumber divisible by 5Þ ¼ 5 ¼ 1
25 5
c i There are 8 even numbers without replacement.

PðevenÞ ¼ 8 ¼ 2
20 5
ii There are 12 odd numbers.

PðoddÞ ¼ 12 ¼ 3
20 5
iii There are 4 numbers less than 20.
4 1
Pðnumber < 20Þ ¼ ¼
20 5

Example 8
A bag contains 3 red counters and a blue counter.
Three counters are drawn at random without replacement.
a Use a tree diagram to display all possible outcomes.
b Find the probability of drawing:
i two red counters
ii a red, blue, and red in that order
iii at least one red counter.

Solution
a The tree diagram will have 4 branches for the first R
B
step or stage, followed by 3 branches for the R
R
second step, followed by 2 branches for the third R B
R
step. R
B
R
So there are 4 3 3 3 2 ¼ 24 outcomes in the
R
sample space. B
R
b i There are 18 outcomes with two red counters R
R R B
(ticked ü on the tree diagram) R
B
18 3 R
) Pðtwo red countersÞ ¼ ¼ R
24 4
B
ii Red, blue, red occurs 6 times R R
(crossed 3 on the tree diagram). R R B
R
) P(red, blue, red) ¼ 6 ¼ 1 B
R
24 4
R
iii All outcomes contain at least one red counter. R
) Pðat least one red counterÞ ¼ 24 ¼ 1
R
R
24 B R R
R
R
R

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Exercise 12-05 Selecting with and without replacement
1 A boy and a girl are to be chosen from a group of 4 boys and 6 girls: Ben, Christian, Ewan, See Example 7
William, Becky, Cassandra, Emily, Marianne, Roz and Siana.
a List all the possible pairs of a boy and a girl.
b Find the probability of selecting:
i Christian and Roz
ii a boy and a girl whose names begin with a B or a C
iii a pair that includes Emily.
2 Two cards are drawn from a set of cards labelled A, B, C, D and E.
C B
a Make a list of all possible outcomes if the cards are drawn:
i with replacement ii without replacement.
b If the first card is replaced before the second card is drawn, find the E A
probability that: D
i both letters are the same ii both letters are vowels
iii one letter is a vowel and the other is a consonant.
c If the first card is not replaced, find the probability that:
i both letters are vowels ii one letter is a vowel and the other is a consonant
iii the first letter is a B or a D iv the last letter is not A.
3 Two coins are tossed together. Second coin
a Copy and complete the table to find all the H T
outcomes in the sample space. First H
b What is the probability of tossing: coin T
i two tails?
ii a head and a tail?
iii at least one head?
4 When staying at a hotel, Sarah and David can select one item from each course of a breakfast menu.
1st course 2nd course
Cereal (C) Bacon and eggs (B)
Fruit (F) Ham and cheese croissants (H)
Yoghurt (Y) Pancakes (P)
Sausages and tomatoes (S)
Toast and jam (T)
a Copy and complete the table to list all the different 2-course breakfasts available.
2nd course
B H P S T
C
1st
F
course
Y
b If one of the combinations of breakfasts is chosen at random, what is the probability that it
includes:
i fruit? ii cereal but not bacon and eggs? iii fruit and croissants?

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See Example 8 5 The numbers 3, 4, 6 and 7 are written on 1st 2nd 3rd
Outcomes
separate cards and placed in a bag. Three cards draw draw draw
are drawn at random without replacement to 6 346
form a three-digit number. 7 347
4
a Copy and complete the tree diagram to
3
list the sample space.
b Find the probability of forming:
i an even number
ii a number greater than 400
iii a number between 400 and 700 4
iv an even number greater than 400.

3 643
6 4

6 The cards in question 5 are to be now drawn with replacement, that is, the same card can be
used twice.
a Use a tree diagram to show all possible outcomes.
b Find the probability that the three-digit number formed is:
i a number with all digits the same ii an odd number
iii greater than 500 iv begins and ends with a 4.
7 A bag contains 2 red marbles, 1 green marble and 1st 2nd 3rd Outcomes
1 yellow marble. Three marbles are drawn from draw draw draw
G RRG
the bag at random without replacement. Y RRY
R
R
a Copy and complete the tree diagram to list the sample space. R G Y RGY
b Find the probability of drawing: Y
i two red marbles
ii a red, green, and red in that order R
iii at least one red marble.
R
R Y GRY
G

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8 A family has three children.
a Use a tree diagram to list all possible outcomes in the sample space.
b What is the probability that the family consists of:
i 3 boys? ii 3 girls?
iii 2 girls and a boy? iv a girl and then two boys?
9 The weather on a long weekend will either be fine or rain each day, with each outcome being
equally likely.
a Draw a tree diagram to show the possible outcomes for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
b What is the probability that:
i it rains on all three days? ii it is fine on two of the three days?
iii it is fine on Saturday and Sunday, but rains on Monday?
iv it rains on at least one day of the long weekend?
10 Two dice are rolled.
a How many outcomes are possible? b What is the probability of rolling two 6s?
c What is the probability of rolling at least one 6?
11 Three counters are drawn from a bag containing 3 yellow counters, 1 blue counter and 1 white
counter.
a Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space if the counters are drawn:
i with replacement ii without replacement.
b If the counters are drawn with replacement, find the probability of obtaining:
i three counters of the same colour ii three counters of different colours
iii no blue counters iv at least one yellow counter.
c If the counters are drawn without replacement, find the probability of drawing:
i three counters of the same colour ii three of different colours
iii 2 blue counters and a white counter iv no white counter.

Investigation: Dependent or independent?

Work in pairs.
You will need: a coin, 3 blue counters and 2 red counters.
1 a i Toss a coin and record the outcome.
ii What is the probability of obtaining your outcome?
b i Toss the coin a second time and record the outcome.
ii What is the probability of obtaining the second outcome?
c Is the outcome of the second toss affected by the outcome of the first toss? Is the probability
of the second outcome independent or dependent on the first outcome? Justify your answer.
2 a Copy this table. With replacement 1st draw 2nd draw
b Put 3 blue counters and 2 red Blue
counters in a bag. Randomly draw Red
a counter from the bag and record 40 40
the outcome.
c Put back the counter you drew in part a and shake the bag. Again draw a counter and
record your outcome.
d Repeat the procedure from parts a and b 40 times and record the totals of each
outcome in the table.

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e Use your results to find:

i P(blue counter drawn first) ii P(blue counter drawn second)
f i Are your two results for part e the same?
ii Would you expect the results to be the same? Give reasons.
g Is the outcome of the second draw dependent on the outcome of the first draw?
3 a Copy this table. Without replacement 1st draw 2nd draw
b Again, place 3 blue counters Blue
and 2 red counters in a bag. Red
Randomly draw a counter from 40 40
the bag and record your outcome.
c Without replacing the counter you drew in part a, shake the bag and draw a second
counter, recording your outcome.
d Repeat the procedure from parts a and b 40 times and record the totals of each
outcome in the table.
e Use your results to find:
i P(blue counter drawn first) ii P(blue counter drawn second)
f i Are your two results for part e the same?
ii Would you expect your results to be the same? Give reasons.
g Is the outcome of the second draw dependent on the outcome of the first draw?
Compare your results with those of other students in your class.

12-06 Dependent and independent events

Two events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the other
event and so the probability of one event is not affected by the probability of the other event
occurring. For example, if a coin is tossed and a die is rolled, the two events are independent as
the outcome on the coin does not affect the outcome on the die.
Two events are dependent if the outcome of one event affects the outcome of the other event and so
the probability of one event is affected by the probability of the other event occurring. For example,
when drawing two marbles from a bag without replacement of the first marble, the two events are
dependent because the outcome of the second draw is affected by the outcome of the first draw.

Example 9
A coin is tossed and a die is rolled.
a List the outcomes in the sample space.
b Find:
i P(tossing a head) ii P(rolling an even number)
iii P(tossing a head and rolling an even number)
c Is P(tossing a head and rolling an even number) ¼ P(tossing a head) 3 P(rolling an even
number)?
d Are the two events dependent or independent?

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Solution
a The outcomes are H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1,
T2, T3, T4, T5 and T6.
b i PðHÞ ¼ 1
2
3 1
ii PðevenÞ ¼ ¼
6 2
3 1
iii PðH and evenÞ ¼ ¼ H2, H4 and H6
12 4
c Yes, since PðH and evenÞ ¼ 1 and
4

PðHÞ 3 PðevenÞ ¼ 1 3 1 ¼ 1
2 2 4
d The two events are independent since the
outcome when tossing a coin does not affect the
outcome when rolling a die.

Summary
Two events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the
other event.
If A and B are two independent events, then P(A and B) ¼ P(A) 3 P(B).

Example 10
A bag contains 3 blue marbles and 1 yellow marble. Two marbles are drawn from the bag,
without replacing the marble from the first draw.
a Find the probability of:
i selecting a blue marble with the first draw
ii selecting a blue marble with the second draw if the first marble was blue.
b Are the two events dependent or independent?

Solution
a i Pðblue on the first drawÞ ¼ 3
4
ii After drawing a blue marble, there are 3 marbles left, of which 2 are blue.
) Pðblue on the second drawÞ ¼ 2
3
b The bag contains 2 blue marbles and 1 yellow marble for the second draw, so
3 2
P(blue) changes from to .
4 3
The second event is dependent on the first event.

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Exercise 12-06 Dependent and independent events

1 State whether the following pairs of events are dependent or independent.
a rolling a die to obtain a 4 and rolling a second die to obtain an even number
b rolling a die and obtaining a 6 and tossing a coin to obtain a tail
c a person who trains hard and that person succeeding in sport
d drawing a red ball from a bag containing red and blue balls, replacing it and then drawing a
blue ball from the bag
e electing a captain from a group of players and then electing a vice-captain from the same group
f tossing two coins and obtaining a head on the first coin and a head on the second coin
g drawing a King from a normal pack of cards, not replacing it and then drawing an Ace
2 In Lotto, 6 balls and 2 supplementary balls are drawn without replacement. Are the events of
drawing each of the balls dependent or independent events? Give reasons.
3 A coin is tossed 3 times and the result is heads each time.
a Are each of the three coin tosses dependent or independent events?
b The coin is tossed a fourth time. What is the probability of obtaining a head on the fourth
toss?
See Example 9 4 A normal die is rolled and a marble is
drawn from a bag containing 1 yellow
marble, 1 green marble, 1 blue marble
and 1 red marble.
a Find the probability of:
i rolling a number less than 3 with the die
ii drawing a green marble from the bag.
b List the outcomes for rolling the die and drawing a marble from the bag.
c What is the probability of rolling a number less than 3 and drawing a green marble?
d Is P(rolling a number less than 3) 3 P(drawing a green marble) ¼ P(a number less than 3
and a green marble)?
e Are the events of rolling a number less than 3 and drawing a green marble dependent or
independent?
5 A red die and a blue die are rolled.
a Find the following probabilities.
i P(5 on the red die) ii P(an even number on the blue die)
b Are the events ‘5 on the red die’ and ‘an even number on the blue die’ dependent or
independent?
See Example 10 6 A bag contains 5 red balls and 4 yellow balls. Two balls are drawn at random without
replacement.
a What is the probability of drawing a red ball first?
b What is the probability of obtaining a red ball on the second draw if the first ball was red?
c Are the two events dependent or independent? Give reasons.

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7 A bag contains 5 yellow counters and 3 red counters. Two draws are made with no
replacement. Find the probability of drawing:
a i a yellow counter on the first draw
ii a yellow counter on the second draw after a yellow counter was drawn with the first
draw
b i a red counter on the first draw
ii a yellow counter on the second draw after a red counter was drawn on the first draw
c i a yellow counter on the first draw
ii a red counter on the second draw after a yellow counter was drawn on the first draw
d i a red counter on the first draw
ii a red counter on the second draw after a red counter was drawn on the first draw.
8 Three children in a family are all girls. What is the probability that the next child in this family
will be a girl?

Just for the record Lotteries and Lotto

A lottery is a game of chance
in which numbered tickets
are drawn from tickets that
have been sold. Lotteries
were introduced by the State
Government to raise money

Shutterstock.com/ben bryant
for hospitals. The first lottery
was drawn on 20 August
1931 with a first prize
of £5000.
Lotteries have been used
to celebrate special events
and to help finance special projects. The Opera House Lottery, which commenced selling on
25 November 1957, was used to finance the construction of the Sydney Opera House.
Other games of chance have been introduced, including Lotto (1979), Instant Scratchies
(1982), Oz Lotto (1994) and Powerball (1996).
Research the probability of winning Lotto, OZ Lotto and Powerball.

Worksheet
12-07 Conditional probability Conditional probability

MAT10SPWK10075
In many practical situations, events are not independent. For example, the probability of a student Puzzle sheet
arriving to school on time if catching a bus may be dependent on the amount of traffic.
Conditional probability:
Conditional probability is used to calculate probabilities for dependent events. Two-way tables

MAT10SPPS00018
Summary
The conditional probability of an event B given event A, is the probability that event B
occurs, given that event A has already occurred.

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Example 11
A bag contains 3 red marbles and 2 yellow marbles. Two marbles are drawn at random from
the bag without replacement. What is the probability that the second marble is yellow, given
that the first marble was also yellow?

Solution
If the first marble is yellow, there are 3 red marbles and 1 yellow marble left in the bag.
[ P(second marble yellow, given the first marble is yellow) ¼ 1
4

Example 12
Two dice are rolled and their total is calculated.
a Use a table to show all possible totals.
b Given that the total is 7, what is the probability that one of the dice shows a 3?
c Given that one of the dice shows a 4, what is the probability that the total is 10?
d Given that the total is 6, what is the probability of a double?
e Given that a double is rolled, what is the probability of:
i a total of 12? ii a total less than 10?

Solution
a
2nd die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1st 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
die 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
b There are 6 outcomes that give a total of 7. (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 2)
If one of the dice shows a three, the possible
outcomes are (3, 4) and (4, 3).
2
Pðone die shows 3, given total ¼ 7Þ ¼
6
1
¼
3
c There are 11 outcomes that have 4 showing (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
on one of the dice. (1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4)
Of these outcomes, only two have a total of 10. (6, 4) and (4, 6)
2
Pðtotal ¼ 10, given one die shows 4Þ ¼
11

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d There are 5 outcomes that give a total of 6. (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)
There is only 1 double. (3, 3)
1
Pðdouble, given total ¼ 6Þ ¼
5
e There are 6 doubles that can be rolled. (1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)
i (6, 6) is the only double with a total of 12.
Pðtotal ¼ 12, given double rolledÞ ¼ 1
6
ii (1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3) and (4, 4) are the
doubles with a total less than 10.
4 2
Pðtotal < 10, given double rolledÞ ¼ ¼
6 3

Exercise 12-07 Conditional probability

1 A bag contains 4 yellow and 3 red marbles. Two marbles are drawn from the bag without See Example 11
replacement.
a Given that the first marble was red, what is the probability that the second marble is also red?
b Given that the first marble was yellow, what is the probability that the second marble is red?
2 A shop takes delivery of 10 radio controlled cars, 3 of which are defective. Two cars are
randomly selected and tested. What is the probability that the second car tested is defective,
given that the first car tested was defective and was not replaced?
3 In a chemistry class there are 5 boys and 7 girls. Two students are asked to come and help
with an experiment. If the first student was a boy, what is the probability that:
a both students chosen were boys? b a boy and a girl were chosen?
4 In Aiden’s pencil case, there are 3 red pens, 4 blue pens and 5 black pens. Aiden takes out two
pens at random. What is the probability that:
a if one pen is red, the other one is also red?
b if one pen is red, the other pen is blue?
c if one pen is black, the other pen is black?
d if one pen is blue, the other pen is black?
5 A die is rolled and a number less than 4 is the result. What is the probability that the number
is even?
6 A coin is tossed and a die is rolled at the same time. Knowing that an even number has been
rolled, what is the probabililty of the result being a head and a 4?
7 Two dice are rolled and the sum of the numbers is calculated. See Example 12
a Make up a table to show all possible sums.
b Given that the sum is 9, find the probability that:
i one of the dice shows a 4 ii one of the dice shows an even number.
c Knowing that one of the dice shows a 6, find the probability that the sum is 11.
d Given that one of the dice shows an even number, find the probability that:
i the sum is even ii the sum is 7.
e If the dice show a double, what is the probability of a sum of 4?

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8 A drawer contains 5 different pairs of coloured socks  black, blue, red, brown and white.
a Haylee randomly takes two socks from the drawer. If one of the socks is blue, what is the
probability that Haylee has:
i a matching pair? ii two different coloured socks?
b Haylee selects two socks at random from the drawer. Given that she selected a red sock
and a blue sock, what is the probability that the third sock she selects will form a matching
pair?
c What is the maximum number of socks that Haylee will need to take from the drawer
before she has at least one matching pair of socks?
9 Lotto in NSW is a game of chance in which 6 balls are selected at random from a barrel
containing balls numbered 1 to 45. What is the chance of Cassie winning Lotto with the sixth
ball, given that she has the first five numbers?
10 Three cards are chosen at random from a normal deck of 52 cards. Given that the three cards
are hearts, what is the probability that the fourth card is also a heart?
11 A card is drawn at random from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability of drawing a
queen, given that the card is a heart?
12 Two dice are rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 6 on the second die, given that the
first die is a 6?
13 Two dice are rolled and the difference between the numbers is calculated.
a Copy and complete the table to show all possible outcomes.
2nd die 6–1= 5

Shutterstock.com/testing
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0
2 3
1st 3
die 4 1 The difference between these
5 numbers is 5
6
b What is the probability of obtaining a:
i difference of 0? ii difference of 5? iii difference greater than 3?
c Knowing that the difference is 4, what is the probability that:
i one of the dice shows a 1? ii one of the dice shows a 3?
d If one of the dice shows a 4, find the probability that:
i the difference is 0 ii the difference is 1.
e Given that the difference is odd, find the probability that:
i one of the dice shows a 3 ii one of the dice shows an even number.

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 N E W C E N T U R Y M AT H S A D V A N C E D
for the A ustralian Curriculum 10 þ10A
Power plus

1 Students at Arunel High School are surveyed about which sport they like to watch and
what type of movies they like to see. The results are shown in the table below.
Horror/Drama Fantasy Comedy Action
Football 23 34 30 48
Cricket 25 12 45 34
Tennis 8 12 32 17
a How many students were surveyed?
b If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that the student likes to
watch:
i horror/drama movies? ii comedy and football?
iii tennis, but not fantasy? iv action, but not cricket or tennis?
c Given that a student likes to watch football, find the probability that the student also
likes to watch action movies.
d Of the students who like comedy, what is the probability that they also like to watch
cricket?
2 A bag contains 3 red and 4 blue marbles. Two marbles are taken out of the bag without
replacement.
a A probability tree diagram is a tree diagram 1st 2nd
draw draw Outcomes
that has the probability of each step or stage
listed on the branches. 2 R RR
6
Copy and complete the probability tree
diagram shown on the right to show the 3 R
7
possible outcomes.
b Use the probability tree diagram to find the B
probability of drawing:
i 2 red marbles 4
7
ii 2 blue marbles B
iii a blue and a red marble
iv at least one blue marble.
3 The conditional probability of event A occurring, given that event B has occured can be
written as P(A|B). Answer the following for the information shown in the Venn diagram.
a Find the probabilities:
i P(A) ii P(B) iii P(A and B) iv P(A|B) v P(B|A)
PðA and BÞ
b i Find the value of
PðBÞ
PðA and BÞ A B
ii Is PðAjBÞ ¼ ?
PðBÞ 4
PðA and BÞ 10 16
c Show, by calculation, that PðBjAÞ ¼ .
PðAÞ

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 Chapter 12 review

n Language of maths
Puzzle sheet at least compound event conditional probability dependent event
Probability crossword die/dice event expected frequency experimental probability
MAT10SPPS10076 independent event mutually exclusive overlapping random
relative frequency sample space table three-step experiment
theoretical probability tree diagram trial two-step experiment
two-way table Venn diagram with replacement without replacement
1 What is the meaning of expected frequency?
2 What term from the above list is another name for experimental probability?
3 On a Venn diagram, what does the rectangle represent?
4 Give an example of dependent events.
5 When are tree diagrams used in probability?
6 For two events A and B, what is the difference between ‘A or B’ and ‘A and B’?

n Topic overview
Rate your understanding of and your ability to do the work in this chapter by copying and
completing the following scales. Circle your rating on each scale
a Calculate relative frequencies to estimate probabilities of events.
Low High

0 1 2 3 4 5
b Represent events in Venn diagrams and two-way tables and solve related problems involving
probabilities.
Low High

0 1 2 3 4 5
c List all outcomes for two- and three-step chance experiments, with and without replacement,
using tree diagrams or tables, and determine the probabilities of events.
Low High

0 1 2 3 4 5
d Calculate the probabilities of compound events.
Low High

0 1 2 3 4 5

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 Chapter 12 review

e Understand the difference between dependent and independent events.

Low High

0 1 2 3 4 5
f Calculate conditional probabilities.
Low High

0 1 2 3 4 5

Copy and complete this mind map of the topic, adding detail to its branches and using pictures,
symbols and colour where needed. Ask your teacher to check your work.

Experimental Important terms

probabilities • outcomes
• likely • events
• certain •
• impossible •
PROBABILITY

Relative frequency Theoretical

probabilities
Outcome frequency • P(E) =
• P(E)
Heads 74
Tails 78
122 Dependent
events

Independent
events
Compound Two- or three-step
events events
12 21 1
2
13 22 H T 3
14 23 H
4
15 24 H HH HT 5
6
T TH TT
1
2
3
Conditional T 4
probability 5
6

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 Chapter 12 revision

See Exercise 12-01 1 Three coins are tossed 150 times and the number Number of heads Frequency
of heads at each trial is recorded in the table. 0 20
a Find the relative frequency (experimental 1 53
probability) of tossing: 2 64
i one head ii two heads
3 13
iii three heads iv at least two heads.
b Find the experimental probability of:
i at least one head ii three tails.
c Are the answers in part b the same or different? Explain why.
See Exercise 12-02 2 The Venn diagram shows the results of a survey
on the types of music that school students listen H P
to  Hip Hop/Rap (H), Pop (P) and Other (O), 2 4
3
which includes R&B, Dance, Metal, Rock and 2
Alternative. 3 5
a How many students were surveyed? 13
b Find the probability of selecting a student who likes to O
listen to all types of music. 3
c What is the probability of selecting a student who listens to
i Hip Hop/Rap and Pop? ii Hip Hop/Rap or Pop? iii Pop music only?
d Why are three students in the rectangle but not in the circles?
See Exercise 12-02 3 Of 20 people in a lift, 6 have blue eyes (B), 8 have dark
hair (D) and 3 have blue eyes and dark hair. B D
a Copy and complete the Venn diagram to show the
given information.
b What is the probability of selecting a person at random
from the lift who has:
i blue eyes only? ii dark hair?
iii blue eyes and dark hair? iv hair that is not dark?
c What is the probability of selecting a person at random who has neither blue eyes nor dark
hair?
See Exercise 12-03 4 Students were asked what type of activities they would like to do on a camp. The results are
shown in the table.

Hiking Rock climbing Kayaking

Boys 25 38 47
Girls 45 23 22

a How many students were surveyed?

b Find the probability (as a decimal) that a student selected at random:
i likes rock climbing ii likes kayaking and is a girl
iii is a girl who likes hiking iv is a boy who likes rock climbing or kayaking
c If a boy is selected at random, what is the probability that his favourite activity is hiking?
d If a student that likes kayaking is chosen, what is the probability that the student is:
i a boy? ii a girl?

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 Chapter 12 revision

5 Two 4-sided dice (numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4) are rolled. See Exercise 12-04
a Copy and complete the table below to list the sample space.

Second die
1 2 3 4
1
2 2, 2
First die
3
4 4, 3
b How many possible outcomes are there?
c Find the probability of:
i rolling one odd and one even number ii rolling two even numbers
iii rolling at least one 3 iv rolling two numbers less than 3
v rolling a double vi rolling two numbers so that the first
number is odd.
6 The numbers 2, 4, and 7 are written on separate See Exercise 12-05
cards and placed in a bag. Three cards are drawn 2
at random to form a three-digit number. 7
a Make up a tree diagram to list the sample space if the cards are drawn:
i with replacement ii without replacement.
4
b If the cards are drawn with replacement, find the probability of forming:
i an even number ii a number less than 400
iii the numbers 222, 444, or 777 iv an odd number greater than 400.
c If the cards are drawn without replacement, find the probability of forming:
i an odd number ii a number greater than 400
iii a number beginning with 7 iv a number divisible by 4.
7 State whether the following pairs of events are dependent or independent. See Exercise 12-06
a obtaining a tail from tossing a coin and then tossing the coin again and obtaining a head
b drawing a ticket in a raffle and winning a first prize and then drawing a second ticket and
winning a second prize.
c electing a president for a cricket club and then electing the vice-president of the cricket club
d a family’s first three children are girls and then the fourth child is also a girl
e rolling a die and obtaining an even number and then rolling the die again and obtaining an
even number again
8 Two 4-sided dice (with numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4) are rolled and the sum of the numbers See Exercise 12-07
is calculated.
a Draw up a table to show all possible sums.
b Given that the sum is 5, find the probability that:
i one of the dice shows a 2 ii one of the dice shows an odd number.
c Knowing that one of the dice shows a 4, find the probability that the sum is 7.
d Given that one of the dice shows an even number, find the probability that:
i the sum is even ii the sum is 5.
e If the dice show a double, what is the probability of a sum of 2?

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