Module-4

Network scheduling by PERT/CPM

 Introduction
Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical
Path Method (CPM) are two techniques that are widely used in
planning and scheduling the large projects.

A project is a combination of various activities.

For example,
Construction of a house can be considered as a project. Similarly,
conducting a public meeting may also be considered as a project.

In the above examples, construction of a house includes

various activities such as
• searching for a suitable site,
• arranging the finance,
• purchase of materials,
• digging the foundation,
• construction of superstructure etc.
 CONTD…
Conducting a meeting includes,
• printing of invitation cards,
• distribution of cards,
• arrangement of platform,
• chairs for audience etc.

In planning and scheduling the activities of large sized projects, the

two network techniques — PERT and CPM — are used conveniently
to estimate and evaluate the project completion time and control
the resources to see that the project is completed within the
stipulated time and at minimum possible cost.

Many managers, who use the PERT and CPM techniques, have
claimed that these techniques drastically reduce the project
completion time.

But it is wrong to think that network analysis is a solution to all bad

management problems. In the present chapter, let us discuss how
PERT and CPM are used to schedule the projects.
 PERT AND CPM
The work involved in the project can be devided into
three phases.
1. Planning:
This phase involves setting the objective of the project
as well as assumption to be made.

It also involves listing of tasks or jobs that must be

performed in order to complete project under
consideration

In addition to the estimate of cost and duration pf

various activities, the manpower, machines and
materials required for the project are also determined
2. Scheduling:
This consist of laying the activities according to
their order of precedence and determining the
following
a. The start and finish time for each
activities
b. The critical path on which the activities
require special attention.
c. The slack and float for non critical path
3. Controlling:
It involves the following
a. Making periodical progress report
b. Reviewing the project
c. Analyzing the status of the project
d. Making management decision regarding
updating, crashing and resource allocation
etc.
 Basic terms
• Network : It is a graphical representation of logically
and sequentially connected arrows and nodes.
Representing activities and events in the project.
(arrow diagram)
• Activity: Activity is represented by means of an
arrow, which is resource consuming. Activity
consumes resources like time, money and materials
the each and every activity has point of time where
it begins and point where it ends.
A
i j

Where A is a activity.
• Event: Event or node is either starting of an activity
or ending of an Event will not consume any resource,
but it simply represents either starting or ending of
an activity.
A
i j
ith Event Jth Event

• Merge or burst event:

If an event end with one or more activity, it is called
merge event
j
If an event begin with one or more activity, it is called
burst event

• Preceding activity: Activities that must be completed

before a given event can occur.

• Succeeding Activities: Activities that cannot be

accomplished until an event has occurred.

• Concurrent Activities: Activities taking place at a time

or in the same location.
• Dummy activity: Certain activity, which neither
consume time nor resources but are used simply
represent a connection or link between the events.
D
B
A

C
 COMMON ERRORS
• Looping: (Cycling error) : Drawing an endless loop.
B
A

C
• Dangling: To disconnect an activity before the
completion of all the activities in a network diagram.
B
A

C
• Redundancy: if a dummy activity is the only activity
connecting from an event and can be eliminated.

B
A
C

C
 Rules of network construction
1. Try to avoid the arrows that cross each other
2. Use straight arrows
3. No event can occur until every activity preceding
has been completed
4. An event cannot occur twice. (no loop)
5. An activity succeeding an event cannot be
started until that event has occurred.
6. Use arrows from left to right. (avoid mixing two
direction
7. Dummies should introduced only if it is
extremely necessary
8. The network has only one start event and one
end or terminal event.
 Numbering the events
• Event number should be unique
• It should be sequential, from left to right
• The initial event, which has all outgoing event
without incoming even is numbered as 1.
• Number all new start events 2, 3, and so on.
Repeat this until the terminal event reaches.
 Construction of Network
Ex-1: Construct a network for the project whose activities and precedence
relationships are as given below:
Activities A B C D E F G H I
Predecessor - A A - D B,C,E F D G,H

Solution:
Ex-2: Construct a network for the project whose activities and precedence
relationships are as given below:
Activit
A B C D E F G H I J K
ies
Prede
- - - A B B C D E H,I F,G
cessor
Solution:
Ex-3: A < C, D, I; B < G, F; D < G, F; F < H, K; G, H < J; I, J, K < E
Solution: Given A < C, which means that C cannot be started until A is
completed. That is, A is the preceding activity to C. The above constraints can
be given in the following table.
Activiti
A B C D E F G H I J K
es
Predec
- - A A I,J,K B,D B,D F A G,H F
essor
Ex-4: A < D, I; B < G, F; D < G, F; C < E; E < H, K; F < H, K; G, H < J Construct a
network diagram by using

Solution: The above constraints can be given in the following table.

Activiti
A B C D E F G H I J K
es
Predec
- - - A C B,D B,D E,F A G,H E,F
essor
 TIME ANALYSIS
Once the network of a project is constructed, the time
analysis of the network becomes essential for planning
various activities of the project. Activity time is a forecast
of the time for an activity which is expected to take from
its starting point to its completion (under normal
conditions).
We shall use the following notation for basic scheduling
computations.
(i, j) = Activity (i, j) with tail event i and head event j
Tij = Estimated completion time of activity (i, j)
ESij = Earliest starting time of activity (i, j)
EFij = Earliest finishing time of activity (i, j)
LSij = Latest starting time of activity (i, j)
LFij = Latest finishing time of activity (i, j).
Terminologies:
Float is defined as the difference between the latest and the earliest
activity time.

Slack is defined as the difference between the latest and the earliest
event time.

Note: Slack is used for events only; whereas float is used for activities.

Total float It refers to the amount of time by which the completion

of an activity could be delayed beyond the earliest expected
completion time, without affecting the overall project duration time.

Independent float The amount of time by which the start of an

activity can be delayed, without affecting the earliest start time of any
immediately following activities, assuming that the preceding activity
has finished at its latest finish time.
Free float The time by which the completion of an activity
can be delayed beyond the earliest finish time, without
affecting the earliest start of a subsequent succeeding
activity.

Critical activity An activity is said to be critical, if a delay in its

start cause a further delay in the completion of the entire project.

Critical path The sequence of critical activities in a network which

determines the duration of a project is called the critical path. It is the
longest path in the network, from the starting event to the ending event
and defines the minimum time required to complete the project.
CRITICAL PATH M ETH OD (CPM )
The critical path method (CPM) is a step-by-step procedure for scheduling the activities in a
project. It is an important tool related to effective project management. The iterative procedure
of determining the critical path is as follows
Note: During Forward Pass consider Maximum value where as during Backward Pass
consider minimum value
 TIME ANALYSIS
Earliest starting time (ESij) = Ei
Earliest finishing time (Efij) = ESij + tij
Latest finishing time (Lfij)= Lj
Latest starting time (LSij) = LFij – tij
Total float(TF) = LS – ES or(=) LF – EF
Free Float FFij= ESj - ESi -tij
Free float(FF) = TF – Head event slack = TF – (Lj – Ej )
Independent float IFij = ESj – LFi - tij
Independent float(IF) = FF – Tail event slack = FF – (Li – Ei )
Problem 1: A project schedule has the following
characteristics.

From the above information, you are required to:

1. Construct a network diagram.
2. Compute the earliest event time and latest event
time.
3. Determine the critical path and total project
duration.
4. Compute total and free float for each activity
Solution:
First we construct the network with the given constraints
The following table gives the critical path as well as
total and free floats calculation.
Forward pass calculation Backward pass calculation
To find the TF (Total Float)
Considering the activity 1 – 2,
TF of (1 – 2) = Latest start–Earliest start= 5 – 0 = 5
Similarly TF (2 – 4) = LS – ES= 9 – 4 = 5
Free float = TF – Head event slack.
Consider the activity 1 – 2
FF of (1 – 2) = TF of (1 – 2) – Slack for the head event 2
= 5 – (9 – 4) = 5 – 5 = 0
FF of (2 – 4) = TF of (2 – 4) – Slack for the head event 4
= 5 – (10 – 5) = 5 – 5 = 0
Like this we calculate the TF and FF for the remaining
activities.
From the above table we observe that the activities 1 – 3, 3
– 5, 5 – 7, 7 – 8, 8 – 10 are the critical activities
as their total float is 0.

Hence, we have the following critical path.

1 – 3 – 5 – 7 – 8 – 10, with the total project duration of 22
days.
Problem 2: A project schedule has the following
characteristics.

From the above information, you are required to:

1. Construct a network diagram.
2. Compute the earliest event time and latest event
time.
3. Determine the critical path and total project
duration.
4. Compute total, free and independent float for each
activity
Solution:
First we construct the network with the given
constraints
The following table gives the critical path as well as total and free floats
calculation.
From the above calculation, we observe that the activity 1–
2, 2–5, 5–7, 7–10, 10–11, 11–12 are the critical activities
as their total float is 0. Hence, we have the critical path 1–
2–5–7–10–11–12, with the total project
duration as 50 days.
Problem 3: A project consist of series of tasks labeled A,
B….I with the following constraints
A<D,E; B,D<F; C<G; B, D<H; F,G<I. you are required to
construct a network using this notation. Also find the
minimum time of completion of the project when the
time of the completion of each task is given as follows.
Job A B C D E F G H I
Time (days) 23 8 20 16 24 18 19 4 10

Solution: Construct the table

Activities A B C D E F G H I
Predecessor - - - A A B,D C B,D F, G
Job A B C D E F G H I
Time (days) - - - A A B,D C B,D F, G

23
LF
23
ES
2 E

D
A 39 67
B 39 6 67
0 3
1
0 H

F
C 4
5 I
38
G
20 57
57

Critical Path is = 1-2-3-5-6

 Earliest Latest
Activit TIME
Start (ES) Finish(EF) TF FF
y Start (LS) Finish (LF)
ES+tij LS-ES
LF-tij
1-2 23 0 23 0 23 0 0
1-3 8 0 8 31 39 31 31
1-4 20 0 20 18 38 18 0
2-3 16 23 39 23 39 0 0
2-6 24 23 47 43 67 20 20
3-5 18 39 57 39 57 0 0
3-6 4 39 43 63 67 24 24
4-5 19 20 39 38 57 18 18
5-6 10 57 67 57 67 0 0

The least possible day to complete entire project is 67 days

Prob 4The following table gives the list of activities and
duration
Activit TIM
y E
1-2 4
1-3 5 1. Draw the arrow diagram
1-4 3 2. For each activity calculate early start and
early finish time
2-3 3
3. What will be the total float
3-4 4
2-6 2
3-5 6
5-6 5
6-8 7
5-8 6
4-7 4
5-7 4
7-8 8
Activ TI LF
ity M 4 ES
E 4 18
1-2 4 18
1-3 5 2
6
1-4 3

2-3 3
0
7 13
3-4 4 0 25
7 13
2-6 2 5 8 25
1 3
3-5 6

5-6 5

6-8 7

5-8 6
7
4-7 4 4
5-7 4 13 17
11 17
7-8 8

Critical Path is = 1-2-3-5-6-8 or 1-2-3-5-7-8

 Earliest Latest
Activit TIME
y Start (ES) Finish(EF) Start (LS) Finish (LF) TF
ES+tij LF-tij LS-ES
1-2 4 0 4 0 4 0
1-3 5 0 5 2 7 2
1-4 3 0 3 10 13 10
2-3 3 4 7 4 7 0
3-4 4 7 11 9 13 2
2-6 2 4 6 16 18 12
3-5 6 7 13 7 13 0
5-6 5 13 18 13 18 0
6-8 7 18 25 18 25 0
5-8 6 13 19 19 25 6
4-7 4 11 15 13 17 2
5-7 4 13 17 18 17 0
7-8 8 17 25 17 25 0
The least possible day to complete entire project is 67 days
 Programme evaluation and Review
technique (PERT)
PERT activities are probabilistic in nature. The time required to
complete the PERT activity cannot be specified correctly. Because
of uncertainties in carrying out the activity, the time cannot be
specified correctly.

Example1:, if you ask a contractor how much time it takes to

construct the house, he may answer you that it may take 5 to 6
months. This is because of his expectation of uncertainty in carrying
out each one of the activities in the construction of the house.

example 2: if somebody asks you how much time you require to

reach railway station from your house, you may say that it may take
1 to 1½ hours. This is because you may think that you may not get a
transport facility in time. Or on the way to station, you may come
across certain work, which may cause delay in your journey from
house to station. Hence PERT network is used when the activity
times are probabilistic.
There are three time estimates in PERT, they are:
• OPTIMISTIC TIME: Optimistic time is represented by 𝑡𝑜. Here
the estimator thinks that everything goes on well and he will
not come across any sort of uncertainties and estimates
lowest time as far as possible. He is optimistic in his thinking.

• PESSIMISTIC TIME: This is represented by 𝑡𝑝. Here estimator

thinks that everything goes wrong and expects all sorts of
uncertainties and estimates highest possible time. He is
pessimistic in his thinking.

• MOST LIKELY TIME: This is represented by 𝑡𝑚. This time is in

between optimistic and pessimistic times. Here the estimator
expects he may come across some sort of uncertainties and
many a time the things will go right.
PERT Procedure:
So while estimating the time for a PERT activity, the estimator
will give the three time estimates. When these three estimates
are plotted on a graph, the probability distribution that we get is
closely associated with Beta Distribution curve. For a Beta
distribution curve as shown in figure, the characteristics are:
Frequency

t0 tm tp

Time distribution curve

• Expected Time or Average Time
𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝒕𝒆 =
𝟔
𝒕𝒑 – 𝒕𝟎
• Standard deviation = = 𝝈,
𝟔
𝑡𝑝 – 𝑡𝑜 is known as range
• Variance = (𝒕𝑷 – 𝒕𝑶)/𝟔 𝟐 = 𝝈𝟐

• The main objective of the analysis through PERT is to find the

completion fate for a particular event within the specific date given
by
• 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝐷) where D is
𝑻𝒔−𝑻𝒆
• 𝑫=
𝝈
• Where Ts is scheduled time to complete the project
• Te Normal expected project length

These equations are very important in the calculation of PERT times.

Problem 1: The following table shows the jobs of a
network along with their time estimation
Job 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8
a (Optimstics) 1 2 2 2 7 5 5 3 8
m (Most likely) 7 5 14 5 10 5 8 3 17
b (pessimistic) 13 14 26 8 19 17 29 9 32

Draw the project and find the probability of the project

completing in 40 days.

Solution: First calculate expected time and standard

deviation of each activity
Activit a m b Expected time (te) Variance
y 𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝒕𝒆 = (𝒕𝒑 – 𝒕𝒐)/𝟔 𝟐 = 𝝈𝟐
𝟔
1-2 1 7 13 7 4
1-6 2 5 14 6 4
2-3 2 14 26 14 16
2-4 2 5 8 5 1
3-5 7 10 19 11 4
4-5 5 5 17 7 4
6-7 5 8 29 11 16
5-8 3 3 9 4 1
7-8 8 17 32 18 16

Then draw the critical path

 LF
ES
21
21
7 3 32
7
32
2
5

0 4
1
0 24 8
36
12
36
6
7 7
6 18
17

Critical Path is = 1-2-3-5-8

Expected project duration=36days
 • Project length variance = 𝝈𝟐 =4 + 16 + 4 + 1 = 25
• Standard deviation = 𝜎 = 5
• The probability that the project completed in 40 days is
• 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝐷) where D is
𝑻𝒔−𝑻𝒆 𝟒𝟎−𝟑𝟔
• 𝑫= = = 𝟎. 𝟖
𝝈 𝟓
• Area under the normal curve for the region 𝑧 ≤ 0.8
• 𝑃 𝑧 ≤ 0.8 = 0.5 + ∅ 0.8
= 𝟎. 𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖𝟖𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖𝟖𝟏 = 𝟕𝟖. 𝟖𝟏%
TABLE 1
TABLE 2 Conclusion: If the job is
POSITIVE performed hundred times,
NEGATIVE
under the same condition,
there will be 78.81 occasion for
this job to be completed in 40
Z=0.8 days.
0.5 0.5
1
Problem 2: A small project is composed of seven activities, whose time
estimates are listed in the table as follows

Job 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 3-5 4-6 5-6

a (Optimstics) 1 1 2 1 2 2 3
m (Most likely) 1 4 2 1 5 5 6
b (pessimistic) 7 7 8 1 14 8 15

You are required to find

1. Draw the project network
2. Find the expected duration and variance of each activity
3. Calculate the variance and standard deviation of project length
4. What is the probability that the project will be completed
i. 4 weeks earlier than the expected,
ii. Not more than 4 weeks later than expected,
iii. If the projectf’s due date is 19 weeks, what is the probability of
meeting the due date?
Solution: First calculate expected time and standard
deviation of each activity
Activit a m b Expected time (te) Variance
y 𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝒕𝒆 = (𝒕𝒑 – 𝒕𝒐)/𝟔 𝟐 = 𝝈𝟐
𝟔
1-2 1 1 7 2 1
1-3 1 4 7 5 1
1-4 2 2 8 3 1
2-5 1 1 1 1 0
3-5 2 5 14 6 4
4-6 2 5 8 5 1
5-6 3 6 15 7 4
 LF
ES
4
4

3 10
10

0 2
1
0 9 6
17
2
17

4
17
3

Critical Path is = 1-3-5-6

Expected project duration = Te =17 weeks
 • Project length variance = 𝝈𝟐 =1 + 4 + 4 = 9
• Standard deviation = 𝜎 = 3
i. The probability that completing the project in 4 weeks earlier
than the expected is given by
• 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝐷) where D is
𝑻𝒔−𝑻𝒆 (𝟏𝟕−𝟒)−𝟏𝟕 −𝟒
• 𝑫= = = = −𝟏. 𝟑𝟑
𝝈 𝟑 𝟑
• Area under the normal curve for the region 𝑧 ≤ −1.33
• 𝑃 𝑧 ≤ −1.33 = 0.5 − ∅ 1.33
= 𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎𝟖𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟏𝟖 = 𝟗. 𝟏𝟖%

TABLE 1
TABLE 2
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
Z=-1.33

0.5 0.5
1
 ii. Probability that completing the project not more than 4 weeks
• 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝐷) where D is
𝑻𝒔−𝑻𝒆 (𝟏𝟕+𝟒)−𝟏𝟕 𝟒
• 𝑫= = = = 𝟏. 𝟑𝟑
𝝈 𝟑 𝟑
• Area under the normal curve for the region 𝑧 ≤ 1.33
• 𝑃 𝑧 ≤ 1.33 = 0.5 + ∅ 1.33
= 𝟎. 𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎𝟖𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟎𝟖𝟐 = 𝟗𝟎. 𝟖%

TABLE 1
TABLE 2
POSITIVE
Z=1.33
NEGATIVE
0.5 0.5
1
 ii. Probability that completing the project within 19 weeks
• 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝐷) where D is
𝑻𝒔−𝑻𝒆 (𝟏𝟗)−𝟏𝟕 𝟐
• 𝑫= = = = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟔
𝝈 𝟑 𝟑
• Area under the normal curve for the region 𝑧 ≤ 0.66
• 𝑃 𝑧 ≤ 0.66 = 0.5 + ∅ 0.66
= 𝟎. 𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓𝟏𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓𝟏𝟒 = 𝟕𝟓. 𝟏𝟒%

TABLE 1
TABLE 2
POSITIVE
Z=0.66
NEGATIVE
0.5 0.5
1
Problem 3: Assuming that expected times are normally
distributed, find the probability of meeting the schedule time as
given for the network
Job 1-2 1-3 2-4 3-4 4-5 3-5
a (Optimstics) 2 9 5 2 6 8
m (Most likely) 5 12 14 5 6 17
b (pessimistic) 14 15 17 12 12 20

Scheduled project completion time is 30 days. Also find the date

on which the project manager can complete the project with the
probability of 0.90

Solution: First calculate expected time and standard

deviation of each activity
Activit a m b Expected time (te) Variance
y 𝒕𝒐 + 𝟒𝒕𝒎 + 𝒕𝒑
𝒕𝒆 = (𝒕𝒑 – 𝒕𝒐)/𝟔 𝟐 = 𝝈𝟐
𝟔
1-2 2 5 14 6 4
1-3 9 12 15 12 1
2-4 5 14 17 13 4
3-4 2 5 12 5 1
4-5 6 6 12 7 4
3-5 8 17 20 16 1
 LF
ES
8
6

2 21
19

0
1
0 5
28
28

12
12

Critical Path is = 1-3-5

Expected project duration = Te =28 days
 • Project length variance = 𝝈𝟐 =1 + 4 = 5
• Standard deviation = 𝜎 = 2.236
The probability that completing the project in 30 days.
• 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝐷) where D is
𝑻𝒔−𝑻𝒆 𝟑𝟎−𝟐𝟖 𝟐
• 𝑫= = = = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟗𝟒𝟒
𝝈 𝟐.𝟐𝟑𝟔 𝟐.𝟐𝟑𝟔
• Area under the normal curve for the region 𝑧 ≤ −1.33
• 𝑃 𝑧 ≤ 0.8 = 0.5 + ∅ 0.8944
= 𝟎. 𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟑𝟏𝟑𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟏𝟑𝟑 = 𝟖𝟏. 𝟑𝟑%

TABLE 1
TABLE 2
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
Z=0.89

0.5 0.5
1
 ii. If the Probability of the completion time is 0.90 then the
corresponding value of z = 1.29
𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 𝐷) where D is
𝑻𝒔−𝑻𝒆 (𝑻𝒔)−𝟐𝟖
• 𝒁= = = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟗
𝝈 𝟐.𝟐𝟑𝟔
• 𝑻𝒔 = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟗 𝟐. 𝟐𝟑𝟔 + 𝟐𝟖 = 𝟑𝟎. 𝟖𝟖 𝒘𝒆𝒆𝒌𝒔

TABLE 1
TABLE 2
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
Problem 4: The following table shows the jobs of a network
along with their time estimates. The time estimates are in days.

(i) Draw the project network.

(ii) Find the critical path.
(iii) Find the probability of the project being completed in 31
days.
First we calculate the expected time and variance for each
activity as shown in the table below.
PROBLEM 1
PROBLEM 2
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD

PROBLEM 2

LAST
PROBLEM 1
PROBLEM 2
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD

PROBLEM 2

LAST