EQUITY RESEARCH

MYOR - Company update - 07 March 2024

CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

BUY Mayora Indah

Cautious optimism
TP: Rp3,000 (+26.6%)

Sector Consumer Providing conservative ground in 2024F

Mayora Indah (MYOR) management shared more conservative stance for aiming high
Bloomberg Ticker MYOR IJ
single digit revenue growth YoY in 2024F given i) higher input cost which may prompt the
Share Price Performance
company to increase ASP, ii) weak mass market purchasing power, iii) slow recovery in
China’s market. Based on YTD sales run rate, MYOR noted an encouraging traction in Feb-
Last price (Rp) 2,370 24 with domestic sales growing at +10% YoY, after a decent sales performance in Jan-24
Avg. daily T/O (Rpbn/USDmn) 16.0/1.0 given the impact of social assistance and campaign spending had minimal effect on
reviving local demand. For overseas market, China's market has shown signs of
3m 6m 12m
improvement in Feb-24, driven by non-festive products (+30% YoY), while Vietnam market
Absolute (%) -1.3 -7.1 -10.6 still not performed well. The A&P cost targets 8%-9%, reflecting a more prudent approach
Relative to JCI (%) -4.2 -13.0 -21.8 in investing in brands where the new product prices and presence have been well
acceptance along with focusing on key driver products. The management is also
52w High/Low price (Rp) 2,900/2,260
considering the possibility of distributing a higher dividend, although the DPR has not yet
been decided.
3,000 10%

2,500 5% Headwinds from raw material cost

0%
This year, MYOR sees its gross margin will likely to hover within 25%-27%, and similarly,
2,000 its net profit margin to hover within 9%-10%, having considered the upward trend in raw
-5%
1,500 material prices (eg. sugar, coffee, cocoa) and manageable opex. Although MYOR has not
-10% implemented price increases thus far, it may reconsider the necessity of price
1,000
-15% adjustments by potentially reducing product sizes or increasing prices for retailers or
500 -20% consumers and will be supported by promotional activities, However, if the high input
price situation persists in the long term, there is a downside risk of 2% to the GPM in FY24,
0 -25%
should the company fail to pass through the burden.
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jun-23

Jan-24
May-23

Jul-23
Jul-23
Mar-23

Feb-24
Apr-23

Aug-23
Sep-23

Exciting product innovation

MYOR 1yr Rel. to JCI (RHS)
The company has a proven track record of product innovations capable of generating
Outstanding shrs (mn) 22,359 excitement in both both the domestic and export markets. This year, MYOR has introduced
several new products, including Kopiko Volcanic Drip (premium coffee) for the Chinese
Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/USDmn) 52,990/3,385 market, Roma Biskuit Durian (biscuit), and Fruta Gummy (soft candy) for the local market.
Estimated free float (%) 15.7 Management has entered into a new category, soft candies, after observing a shifting
trend among the middle-income segment from hard to soft candies. If the new product
Major shareholders gains traction, it could increase the company's market share in the candy category, which
Unita Branindo PT 32.9% currently stands at 22% in 4Q23 (compared to 21% in 3Q23), securing the 2nd position.
Mayora Dhana Utama PT 26.1% Fine-tuning estimates and reiterating our Buy rating
Jogi Hendra Atmaja 25.2% We revised down our 2024F/25F sales by -2%, respectively given the uncertainty recovery
demand, but net profit to increase by 10%/7% in 2024F/25F supported by opex efficiency.
EPS Consensus We apply a lower PE of 19.5x (-1std. of 3-year mean PE) as a multiple to reflect
unfavorable domestic conditions and arrived at lower 2024F TP of Rp3,000/sh (prev.
Ciptadana Cons. % Diff Rp3,300/sh). We maintain our Buy rating as our new TP still offers an attractive 26%
2024F 153.6 140.1 9.6 upside to current share price. Risk to our call: include slower than expected sales volumes
in consumer down trade and higher than expected raw material prices.
2025F 159.6 155.8 2.4
2026F 170.7 174.0 -1.9 Exhibit 1 : Financial Highlights
Year to 31 Dec 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue (Rpbn) 30,669 31,485 33,882 36,779 40,106
Operating profit (Rpbn) 2,433 4,299 4,594 4,732 5,044
Net profit (Rpbn) 1,942 3,194 3,434 3,569 3,816
EPS (Rp) 86.9 142.8 153.6 159.6 170.7
EPS growth (%) 63.7 64.4 7.5 3.9 6.9
Putu Chantika Putri EV/EBITDA (x) 16.4 10.2 9.4 8.9 8.3
+62 21 2557 4800 ext. 740 PER (x) 27.3 16.6 15.4 14.8 13.9
[email protected] PBV (x) 4.2 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.4
Dividend yield (%) 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.6 2.7

http://www.ciptadana.com ROE (%) 15.4 21.2 20.0 18.4 17.5

Source : MYOR, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
MYOR - Company update - 07 March 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

(In Rp Bn) Old Forecast New Forecast Forecast Changes

2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F

Revenue 34,674 37,558 33,882 36,779 -2.3% -2.1%

COGS -25,343 -27,397 -25,114 -27,151 -0.9% -0.9%

Gross profit 9,331 10,162 8,768 9,627 -6.0% -5.3%

Gross profit margin 26.9% 27.1% 25.9% 26.2% -3.8% -3.3%

Operating profit 4,233 4,570 4,594 4,732 8.5% 3.6%

Operating profit margin 12.2% 12.2% 13.6% 12.9% 11.1% 5.7%

Pretax profit 3,905 4,260 4,403 4,566 12.8% 7.2%

Pretax profit margin 11.3% 11.3% 13.0% 12.4% 15.4% 9.5%

Net profit 3,130 3,346 3,434 3,569 9.7% 6.7%

Net profit margin 9.0% 8.9% 10.1% 9.7% 12.3% 8.9%

Source: Ciptadana Estimates

Exhibit 3: MYOR market share trend across categories

Category 1Q23 Rank 2Q23 Rank 3Q23 Rank 4Q23 Rank

Biscuit 39% 1 39% 1 42% 1 42% 1
Candy 22% 2 21% 2 21% 2 22% 2
Wafer 22% 2 20% 2 23% 2 23% 2
Chocolate 26% 1 32% 1 33% 2 33% 2
Coffee 6% 5 5% 5 5% 5 5% 5
Breakfast Cereal 69% 1 69% 1 69% 1 69% 1
Source: Company, Ciptadana Sekuritas

Exhibit 4: PE band
38

31

24

17

10
May-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

May-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

May-23

Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Mar-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

P/E Std. Dev 1 Std. Dev -1

Std. Dev 2 Std. Dev -2 Avg. PE

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
MYOR - Company update - 07 March 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 5: ESG
Company Description FMCG Company
Environmental
1. MYOR has facilities to manage its waste through
Wastewater Treatment Plan (WWTP)
2. The company only used raw materials in the form of
Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and its derivatives from suppliers
who are registered as members of the Roundtable on
Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)
3. The company is working with the Del Technology Institute
(IT DEL) to turn water hyacinth into organic fertilizer
4. The company successfully reduced its energy used by
1.2% in 2022, after gradually replacing new machine
5. MYOR’s production facilities participating in KLHK’s
PROPER

ESG-related
opportunity or risk Social
assessment 1. Company workers health and safety are well protected
reflected by the ISO14000 certification granted to the
company
2. On the food productions, company is already certified by
ISO 22000 to ensure the food production hygiene and
safety
3. The company has actively contribute to improve social
welfare through various programs such as Mayora Smart
and Mayora Care

Governance
1. The BOC and BOD do not have female members while
40% of the BOC are independent commissioners
2. The president commissioner and CEO of the company are
family related with majority ownership (25.4% stake)
3. Majority of distribution of company’s products are run by
related party

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
MYOR - Company update - 07 March 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 6 - Income Statement

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue 30,669 31,485 33,882 36,779 40,106
COGS -23,830 -23,077 -25,114 -27,151 -29,527
Gross profit 6,839 8,408 8,768 9,627 10,579
Oper. expenses -4,406 -4,108 -4,174 -4,895 -5,534
Oper. profit 2,433 4,299 4,594 4,732 5,044
EBITDA 3,361 5,211 5,649 5,942 6,422
Interest income 31 85 97 102 106
Interest expense -389 -303 -293 -289 -334
Other income (exp.) 71 159 151 21 66
Pre-tax profit 2,506 4,094 4,403 4,566 4,882
Income tax -536 -849 -914 -941 -1,005
Minority interest -28 -51 -55 -57 -61
Net profit 1,942 3,194 3,434 3,569 3,816

Exhibit 7 - Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Cash & cash equivalent 3,262 4,157 4,369 4,524 4,729
Acct, receivables 6,605 6,197 6,669 7,239 7,894
Inventory 3,870 3,557 3,871 4,185 4,551
Other curr, asset 1,035 828 891 968 1,055
Total current asset 14,773 14,739 15,800 16,915 18,229
Fixed assets - net 6,645 8,160 9,742 11,357 13,054
Other non-curr.asset 859 972 976 980 986
Total asset 22,276 23,870 26,517 29,253 32,268

ST debt + curr. maturity 2,718 734 515 676 810

Acct, payable 2,016 2,063 2,245 2,427 2,639
Advances received 0 0 0 0 0
Other curr. liab 903 1,216 1,318 1,427 1,553
Long term debt 2,811 3,533 3,889 3,891 3,946
Other non-curr, liab, 994 1,042 1,121 1,217 1,327
Total liabilities 9,441 8,588 9,088 9,638 10,275
Shareholder equity 12,628 15,039 17,187 19,372 21,750
Minority interest 206 243 243 243 243
Total liab + SHE 22,276 23,870 26,517 29,253 32,268

Exhibit 8 - Per Share Data

Year to 31 Dec(Rp) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
EPS 86.9 142.8 153.6 159.6 170.7
BVPS 564.8 672.6 768.7 866.4 972.8
DPS 20.6 35.0 57.6 61.9 64.3
FCF per share 14.5 146.1 76.2 75.7 79.1

Source : MYOR, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
MYOR - Company update - 07 March 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

Exhibit 9 - Cash Flow

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Net income 1,942 3,194 3,434 3,569 3,816
Depreciation 927 912 1,055 1,210 1,378
Chg in working cap. -1,429 1,148 -490 -578 -665
Other -2 365 342 317 313
CF-Oper activities 1,439 5,619 4,341 4,518 4,842

Capital expenditure -1,195 -2,427 -2,637 -2,825 -3,074

Others 79 76 0 0 0
CF-Investing activities -1,116 -2,351 -2,637 -2,825 -3,074

Net change in debt 395 -1,262 136 164 188

Net change in equity 0 0 0 0 0
Dividend payment -460 -783 -1,287 -1,384 -1,438
Other financing 352 -111 -341 -317 -313
CF-Financing activities -70 -2,373 -1,492 -1,537 -1,563

Net cash flow 253 895 212 155 205

Cash - begin of the year 3,009 3,262 4,157 4,369 4,524
Cash - end of the year 3,262 4,157 4,369 4,524 4,729

Exhibit 10 - Key Ratios

Year to 31 Dec 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Growth
Revenue (%) 9.9 2.7 7.6 8.5 9.0
Operating profit (%) 37.3 76.7 6.8 3.0 6.6
Net profit (%) 63.7 64.4 7.5 3.9 6.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross margin (%) 22.3 26.7 25.9 26.2 26.4
Operating margin (%) 7.9 13.7 13.6 12.9 12.6
EBITDA margin (%) 11.0 16.6 16.7 16.2 16.0
Net margin (%) 6.3 10.1 10.1 9.7 9.5
ROA (%) 8.7 13.4 12.9 12.2 11.8
ROE (%) 15.4 21.2 20.0 18.4 17.5
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio (x) 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.3
Quick ratio (x) 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.3
Cash conversion cycle (days) 110.8 106.8 102.4 102.1 102.1
Activity Ratio
Inventory turnover (days) 59.3 56.3 56.3 56.3 56.3
Receivable turnover (days) 75.5 74.2 69.3 69.0 68.9
Payable turnover (days) 23.9 23.6 23.2 23.2 23.1
Solvency Ratio
Interest cover (x) 8.6 17.2 19.3 14.2 15.3
Debt to equity ratio (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Net debt to equity (x) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Source : MYOR, Ciptadana Estimates

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
MYOR - Company update - 07 March 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

EQUITY RESEARCH

HEAD OF RESEARCH ECONOMIST ANALYST

Arief Budiman Renno Prawira Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA
Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Economist Banking, Hospital
Construction, Oil & Gas and Shipping T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 735 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 919
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 819 E [email protected] E [email protected]
E [email protected]

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Yasmin Soulisa Gani Thomas Radityo
Property, Plantations Telco, Tower, Media, Technology Coal, Metal Mining
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 799 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 734 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 795
E [email protected] E [email protected] E [email protected]

ANALYST ANALYST ANALYST

Putu Chantika Putri Nicko Yosafat Muhammad Gibran
Consumer, Cigarette Retail, Pharmaceutical Cement, Poultry, Toll road
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 740 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 760 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 798
E [email protected] E [email protected] E [email protected]

TECHNICAL ANALYST RESEARCH ASSISTANT

Asrul Husni Sumarni
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 780 T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 920
E [email protected] E [email protected]

EQUITY SALES

DIRECTOR OF INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES

Dadang Mulyana
Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59
Jakarta - 12190
T +62 21 2557 4800 ext 838
F +62 21 2557 4900
E [email protected]

BRANCH OFFICES

JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA SURABAYA

Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Intiland Tower Surabaya
Rukan Blok C No.10 Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6
Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Jl. Panglima Sudirman 101-103
Jakarta - 10730 Surabaya - 60271
T +62 21 600 2850 T +62 31 534 3938
F +62 21 612 1049 F +62 31 534 3886

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 EQUITY RESEARCH
MYOR - Company update - 07 March 2024
CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA

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companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not
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