Scribd
Upload
65 views

Task Card 3 - Probability and Contingency Tables

This document discusses probability and contingency tables using data on number of siblings from a survey. It provides examples of calculating various conditional probabilities from contingency tables, including the rare disease paradox where the probability of a positive result indicating the rare disease is actually quite low.

Uploaded by

sandhusatvinder08
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
65 views

Task Card 3 - Probability and Contingency Tables

This document discusses probability and contingency tables using data on number of siblings from a survey. It provides examples of calculating various conditional probabilities from contingency tables, including the rare disease paradox where the probability of a positive result indicating the rare disease is actually quite low.

Uploaded by

sandhusatvinder08
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 4

Task Card 3: Probability and

Contingency Tables
This task card focuses on the Number of Siblings data from our
First-Day Survey that can be found in Statcrunch.

Question 1
1. Which statement below best describes the data? (highlight or bold your answer)
a. Siblings
b. Number of siblings
c. How many siblings

2. Make a Frequency Table using Statcrunch (Stat>Tables>Frequency) and copy/paste it


below:

3. Answer these probability questions that are stated in English using probability notation
a. P(a randomly selected student has exactly one sibling)
P(A) = .142857

b. P(a randomly selected student has more than one sibling)


P(A') = 1 - P(A) = 1 - .142857 = 0.857142

c. P(a randomly selected student has 4 to 7 siblings)

P(4 ≤ x ≤ 7) = 0.857142

d. P(a randomly selected student has 8 or more siblings)

P( X ≥ 8) = 0.047619
4. Answer these probability questions that are stated in mathematical symbols using
probability notation and where 𝑋 = number of siblings of a randomly selected student.
a. 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) Compute the answer and explain what the question is asking in words.
3 Siblings or less. 0.7857142

b. 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 5) Compute the answer and explain what the question is asking in words.
5 Siblings or more. 0.0714285

c. P( 2≤ 𝑋 ≤ 3) Compute the answer and explain what the question is asking in


words.
Between 2 to 3 siblings. .5952380

d. 𝑃(3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 7) Compute the answer and explain what the question is asking in
words.
Between 3 to 7 siblings. 0.4523809

Question 2
The contingency table shows whether someone has a disease and whether they tested positive
or negative for the disease. Notice that very few people have the disease. This is a very common
situation and it has interesting results.

Test positive Test negative Row Totals


Has Disease 56 4 60
Does not have Disease 998 18942 19940
Column Toals 1054 18946 20000

1. How many people are there in total?


20,000

2. How many people have the disease?


60

3. How many people don’t have the disease?


19,940

4. Compute the probability someone has the disease.


0.00300902

5. Compute the probability someone tests positive GIVEN they have the disease. Also,
write the problem using the conditional probability notation P(A|B)
P( A|B) = .93

6. Compute the probability someone tests negative GIVEN they do not have the disease.
Also, write the problem using the conditional probability notation P(A|B)
P( A|B) = .94994984

Now let’s explore false positives and false negatives. False positives are people who test positive
but do not have the disease. False negatives are people who test negative but actually have the
disease.

7. Compute the probability someone tests positive GIVEN they do not have the disease.
Also, write the problem using the conditional probability notation P(A|B)
P( A|B) = 0.05005015

8. Compute the probability someone tests negative GIVEN they do have the disease. Also,
write the problem using the conditional probability notation P(A|B)
P( A|B) = 0.066666666

Finally let’s explore the “rare disease paradox”.

9. Compute the probability someone has the disease GIVEN they test positive. Also, write
the problem using the conditional probability notation P(A|B)
P( A|B) = 0.05313092

10. Compute the probability someone does not have the disease GIVEN they test positive.
Also, write the problem using the conditional probability notation P(A|B)

P( A|B) = .94686907
11. Do these last two probabilities surprise you? Write a sentence or two reacting to the
“rare disease paradox”.
The last two probabilities are very surprising as it essentially means that 94.6% of
positives for a rare disease are false positives.

You might also like