Note
Note
China
In China the power generation for industrial usage is robust, an increase of 3.6% YoY or 0.8% MoM to
846.2 billion kWh. From January to July, the total power generation for the country was around 5.01
trillion kWh, up by 3.8 percent YoY. In 2022, total coal consumption was 3.03 billion tonnes standard
coal, while production was 3.2 billion tonnes and imports approximately 200 million tonnes standard
coal. In 2023, China’s coal imports, including low-grade lignite, climbed to an all-time high of 44 million
tons in August, while domestic production of 382 million tons was also a record for the time of year.
Imports over the first eight months have nearly doubled to 306 million tons. There is a major shift from
domestic to imported coal among coastal users. A mismatch has also emerged in coal quality between
what is produced and what users need. The three main seaborne exporters to China are Australia,
Indonesia and Russia.
India
Coal accounts for 55% of India’s total commercial energy production. Although its share in India’s overall
energy mix is expected to reduce over the next decade, it would remain a primary energy source and
absolute coal offtake is expected to improve given higher demand from sectors such as power and steel.
Industry estimates suggest that India’s coal demand could reach 1,250-1,500 million tonnes by FY2030,
assuming a 6-8% growth in power demand.
Others
Australia’s exports of thermal coal for power plants and coking coal for steelmaking rose to 6.69 million
tons in August 2023, the highest since July 2020, according to the latest data from Chinese customs.
Russian coal has also found favor after the invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow turning to its strategic ally
to offload commodities shunned by other buyers, often at discounted rates. Imports from Russia in
August hit their second highest level this year at 9.96 million tons.
Coal future prices forecast from S&P CapitalIQ Commodity Prices
USD per T
USD per T
Map of retired announced, pre-permitted, permitted and in-construction coal fired power plants
The declining use of coal in the West is driven by the fact that many coal-fired power plants are reaching
the end of their useful lives. In contrast, in Asia, the average coal power plant is only a dozen years old.
Seen in this light, the cost of abandoning fully functional energy infrastructure in the peak of its productive
life is far higher than transitioning away from an already aging infrastructure.