Balancing growth in

connectivity with a
comprehensive global air
transport response to the
climate emergency.

FIRST EDITION:
SEPTEMBER
2020
The air transport industry is the global network of commercial aircraf t operators,
airports, air navigation service providers and manufacturers of aircraf t and their
components. It is responsible for connecting the global economy, providing millions
of jobs and making the modern, internationally-connected quality of life possible.
The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), based in Geneva, Switzerland, represents
the full spectrum of this global business. ATAG brings the industry together to form
a strategic perspective on commercial aviation’s sustainable development and the
role that air transport can play in supporting the sustainability of other sectors of
the economy.

www.atag.org

This publication is for information purposes only. Although every ef fort has been
made to ensure the quality and accuracy of information in this publication, it is
made available without any warranty of any kind. All currency is in United States
dollars at 2020 prices, unless otherwise stated. Forecasts and forward-looking
statements in this publication are attributed to those organisations referenced, or
to the Air Transport Action Group.

*Updated to correct minor errors.

 Waypoint 2050 1

CONTENTS
FOREWORD Green recovery provides an extraordinary opportunity for 2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
air travel: by members of the Air Transport Action Group.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overview of a scenario for air transport CO2 emissions 3

The Waypoint 2050 project was initiated by the Air Transport Action Group Board of
and a series of action points for industry, governments,
Directors in 2017 and was assisted by the following 70 experts from across the air
researchers
transport and energy
sector. ATAG suppliers.
would like to sincerely thank them for their expertise and
dedicated input.
THE CHALLENGE A review of the factors that make decarbonisation in 11
BlueSky: Philippe
aviation a globalBonnefoy www.bluesky-d2d.com
challenge.
AeroSpace and Defence Industries Association of Europe: Maria Chiara Detragiache
A NOTE ON COVID-19 Aerospace
How the Industries Association:
biggest shock David
in aviation Hyde may impact the
history 15
Airbus:
pathKevin Goddard, Andrew Gordon, Olivier Husse, Steven Le Moing, Sandra Sassone,
to decarbonisation.
Simone Rauer, Eric Maury, Mark Galle,
WAYPOINT 2050 Airlines for America:
An overview Nancy
of the vision Young, Tim Pohle
for aviation in 2050 and beyond, 19
Airports Council International:
the overarching scenariosAram Karagueuzian,
generated David and
by the project Gamper, Guillaume
Rodier,
howJuliana Scavuzzi,
aviation’s globalMichael Rossell,
goals can factorNina
intoBrooks, Patrick Lucas,
the Paris
Rajasundaram Chidambararaman
Agreement trajectories.
Airports Council International Europe: Marina Bylinsky
ATR:Demographic
Solène Flahault, Bertrand Pabon
a) reviewing traffic and economic shifts will have a profound 30
Boeing: Sean
impact onNewsum,
the way Amy
air Bann, Dale
transport Smith,
grows Danielthe
around M Allyn,
world,David C Franson, Michael
forecasts Lakeman, Mohamed Alghailani, Monica Alcabin
associated emissions growth, and policy perspectives.
British Airways: Andy Kershaw
CFM International: Valerie Guenon, Francis Couillard
b) innovating with How developments in technology will help lead to a
Civilreduction
Air Navigation Services through
Organisation (CANSO):changes
Coleen Hawrysko,
40
Michelle Bishop,
aircraft technology Eduardo in emissions, evolutionary in
Garcia, Rafael Quezada and the CANSO Environment Working Group
aircraft and engine design, to a revolutionary approach
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt / the German Aerospace Center (DLR):
with electric and hydrogen systems.
Klaus Lütjens, Thorsten Ehlers, Christian Weder, Florian Linke
European Business Aviation Association: Bruce Parry
c) improvements Although the main pathway to decarbonisation in aviation
GE Aviation: Arjan Hegeman, Jieun Kirtley, Hermann Scheugenpflug 54
in operations and will rely heavily on technology and energy solutions,
General Aviation Manufacturers Association: Alex Grose
a range of operational and infrastructure measures
infrastructure Groupement des Industries Françaises Aéronautiques et Spatiales (GIFAS): Anne
can help cut emissions further and are able to be
Bondiou-Clergerie, Corinne Lignet
implemented sooner.
Heathrow Airport: Andrew Chen, Ben Brewer, James Rose, Matt Prescott
Inmarsat: Mary McMillan
d) deploying Sustainable fuels for air transport are already being
International Air Traffic Automation Systems: Ori Shloosh
66
sustainable used and will remain the most significant opportunity
International Air Transport Association: Brian Pearce, Andrew Matters, Arnaud Vanolli,
for emissions reduction in the long-term, particularly
aviation fuel Daniel Vaca, Jes Halim Nauckhoff, Michael Schneider, Robert Boyd, Thomas Roetger,
for long-haul
Viktoria Bognar traffic. What will be needed to ramp up
deployment
International to meet
Airlines the Jonathon
Group: needs of Counsell,
aviation’sCarrie
2050 goal,
Harris, Leigh Hudson,
and Gordon
Samuel beyond?
McKinsey: Daniel Riefer and Clemens Kienzler (SAF feedstock and cost curve analysis)
e) investing in out- NATS:
Once all other
James Deeley measures of the industry pillars of action 82
of-sector carbon have
Pratt & been
Whitney: exhausted,
Mary there may
Prettyman, still Winter,
Michael be a need forGray
Larry offsets
to bring CO 2 emissions down to the industry goals. But
reduction measures Rolls-Royce: Adam Morton, John Salmon
the offset opportunities in 2050 may not be the same as
(offsetting) Safran: Benoit Guyon, Chems Chkioua, Nicolas Jeuland
those available today.
Sustainable Aviation: Andy Jefferson
United Airlines: Aaron Robinson
METHODOLOGY OF ANALYSIS Virgin Atlantic: Geoff Clark
90
Alejandro Block
GLOSSARY 93

REFERENCES 94
2 Waypoint 2050

FOREWORD
Green recovery provides an extraordinary
opportunity for air travel

Aviation has been through tough times in the past. But There should be no doubt about the extent of the challenge
our joint efforts have always brought us together to lead we face. Unlike most other sectors, where technology
in extraordinary ways. As the industry grew rapidly in the solutions have already been proven to work, aviation
middle of the 20th Century, we worked collaboratively to has no off-the-shelf fix. We need to pursue a rapid and
create the safest form of travel on earth. Downturns have global energy transition away from fossil fuels and
always been followed by strength in collective action. towards sustainable sources of energy, some of which
Covid-19 has had an impact on aviation more acute and far- are technologically mature but need massive scaling up.
reaching than on most other sectors, but that has brought Others, such as fuels produced from green electricity, are
us together like never before. The #WeAreAviation spirit at the start of their journey from initial development into
has been clear to see throughout the network. our wings.
There have been some silver linings in the dark clouds of And there have been remarkable advances in new concepts
the pandemic. A renewed appreciation for clear skies in in propulsion, such as electric, hydrogen and hybrid
many parts of the world, clear lakes and seas in others. aircraft. More work needs to be done to bring these to
A reminder of the fact that we can do things better. It has commercial reality. But if there is one thing you can say
come at a terrible human cost, but like many of the world’s about aviation: we never stop innovating.
citizens, we are looking at the opportunity that the re-start It took aerospace engineers around 30 years to get us from
of the economy could provide. How can we continue to the first commercial air service to the jet engine. The last
connect the peoples and economies of the world, long into 30 years have seen us halve the CO 2 emissions for every
the future, but with a much lower footprint? What can we passenger’s journey. The next three decades to 2050, and
do better? the ones that follow, will allow us to enter the third era of
Despite the devastating impact that the pandemic has had aviation: that of sustainable fuels, electric and hybrid flight
on our business, our commitment to climate action today and, eventually, zero carbon connectivity.
and for the long term remains strong. By 2050 we will Pivotal in that quest will be bringing experts from across
halve aviation’s CO 2 emissions compared with what they air transport together with governments and researchers.
were in 2005, worldwide. But 2050 is only a waypoint on our Collaboration and engagement of stakeholders from within
journey. With the right help from governments, the energy and outside the aviation sector is essential, especially
sector and technologists, we expect that global aviation for disruptive concepts. It can be done, but only if we do it
will be able to hit net-zero emissions a decade or so later. together. The challenge is considerable, but necessary
Indeed, some parts of the world will be able to move faster and inspiring.
towards this point.
We are committed to making it a reality.

Michael Gill
ATAG Executive Director

On behalf of the Board of Directors of the Air Transport Action Group:

Airports Council International (ACI), Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO), International Air Transport
Association (IATA), International Business Aviation Council (IBAC), Airlines for America (A4A), Association of Asia-
Pacific Airlines (AAPA), Airbus, Boeing, CFM International, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce and Safran.
 Waypoint 2050 3

EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
Aviation can play its part in the global
climate mission
4 Waypoint 2050

WAYPOINT 2050 IS A COLLABORATION OF EXPERTS FROM ACROSS THE

AVIATION SECTOR, LOOKING AT HOW THE INDUSTRY CAN ACCELERATE
WORKING TOGETHER TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WORLD’S CLIMATE ACTION
MISSION. AS OTHER SECTORS AND POLITICAL AUDIENCES ALL OVER THE
WORLD EMBRACE A SPIRIT OF COLLECTIVE RESPONSE TO THE CLIMATE CRISIS,
AVIATION SEES THIS AS A CONTINUATION OF ITS TRADITIONAL WAY OF DOING
BUSINESS THROUGH COLLABORATIVE EFFORT. IN 2009, THE AIR TRANSPORT
INDUSTRY SET ONE OF THE FIRST GLOBAL, SECTOR-WIDE, CLIMATE PLANS FOR
ANY INDUSTRY.
In the decade since, airlines have spent over a trillion dollars Waypoint 2050 suggests a slowing of growth when compared
on more efficient aircraft1; the aerospace sector has spent with recent years (even without the impact of Covid-19).
over $150 billion on efficiency research and development2; Taking into account the impact of Covid-19 on longer-term
CO2 emissions per seat kilometre have improved by 21.5%3; growth trends, we can expect a compound annual growth
ten new (and significantly more efficient) aircraft types have rate of 3% from 2019 until 2050, mainly from Asia-Pacific,
entered service (or are about to)4; over 270,000 flights have the Middle East, Latin America and Africa, although there
taken off on sustainable aviation fuel (which wasn’t even remains significant growth in North America and Europe.
certified until 2011); the world’s first CO2 standard for aircraft Three possible limits to growth: environmental concerns
and the first carbon pricing mechanism for a single global from consumers; governments moving to reduce growth; or a
sector were negotiated and adopted at the International shift to other modes of transport (such as rail), are expected
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO); and collaboration across to have limited impact on the overall growth picture. Despite
the sector has driven efficiency improvements in air traffic this, the sector must innovate and accelerate the energy
management. It’s been a busy ten years. transition to low (and, ultimately, zero) carbon fuel sources in
But while the industry is accustomed to working together, order to ensure its continued licence to operate.
the race towards 2050 and beyond is going to require a
considerable acceleration in efforts by partners working b) innovating with technology
within the aviation sector and with other institutions,
Evolutionary technology will continue to be developed,
particularly governments.
bringing with them around a 20% improvement in fuel
Air transport has committed to cutting its net CO2 emissions efficiency to each generation of aircraft. But in the next 30
to half of what they were in 2005, by 2050 (which would result years, the industry will likely see even more radical shifts.
in a total of 325 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050). Whilst many By 2050, it is expected that electric- and hydrogen-powered
countries are putting in place net-zero emissions goals for propulsion will have the potential to serve regional, short-haul
2050, there are different speeds of decarbonisation underway and perhaps medium-haul markets. Traditional liquid fuels
in different parts of the world; and the lack of readily-available are expected to remain necessary for long-haul aircraft and
solutions for aviation means that the sector falls into a for the remaining short and medium haul aircraft that have
category of ‘hard to abate’ parts of the economy. not shifted to electric or hydrogen, but with a transition to
Waypoint 2050 demonstrates, however, that there are 100% sustainable and low carbon sources.
potential options for the almost complete decarbonisation
of air transport with the industry at a global level able to c) improvements in operations
meet net-zero emissions a decade or so after 2050 (and some
regions and companies able to reach this point sooner). This and infrastructure
assumes the right level of support from governments, the These areas present a vital area of early action to help
finance sector, the energy industry and research institutions. the pathway to 2050. A wide range of measures can be
The industry itself will need to redouble efforts as well. implemented by airlines, airports and air traffic management
There are a range of measures that can help drive aviation to reduce CO2 from the operation, with collaboration playing
towards the technology, energy system and operational a vital role. Importantly, increasing congestion can degrade
measures that are required to meet these ambitions. Many of airspace efficiency, so continual improvements are needed to
these are incredibly challenging, but all are achievable with the maintain (or enhance) existing operational efficiency.
right policy environment and the necessary focus of resources.
d) deploying sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
a) reviewing traffic forecasts Perhaps the single largest opportunity to meet and go
By 2050, it is expected that over 10 billion passengers will beyond the industry’s 2050 goal is the rapid and worldwide
be carried by air some 20 trillion kilometres each year and, scaling up of sustainable aviation fuel and new energy
without any additional improvement in technology, fuels or sources. It is likely that aviation will need around 450-500
improvements in operations, this activity would generate million tonnes of SAF per annum by 2050. Analysis shows
some 1,800 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 . Demographic shifts and that this is achievable, with rigorous sustainability criteria
population changes mean that the central forecast used in ensuring a transition that does not impact food or water use.
Rather than relying on a single option, there are a range of
 Waypoint 2050 5

feedstocks available, from non-food crops to waste sources Waypoint 2050 explores three consolidated scenarios for how
and eventually a shift to power-to-liquid fuels made from air transport can meet its goal. Which of these scenarios plays
recycled or directly-captured CO2 and low-carbon electricity. out over time will be determined by a number of decisions in
The scale-up will be a significant challenge, although with the the course of the coming decades, induding:
right support from government and the energy sector, it is far »» How do we prioritise investment in both sustainable
from insurmountable. Policy will play a core role in this shift aviation fuel deployment and radical new technologies?
— government support to channel feedstocks towards aviation
»» Can energy providers massively scale up SAF and
and not to other transport sectors (where alternative energy
hydrogen production at the same time?
sources are already available).
»» Will governments, finance institutions and
consumers play the role they need to accelerate
e) investing in out-of-sector carbon the energy transitions?
reduction measures (offsetting) Whilst the solution will likely be some combination of all the
Aviation will need to turn to carbon offsets in the medium- scenarios, the important lesson learnt from the work in this
term to stabilise CO2 emissions as it works on long-term, report is that it can be done. Aviation can meet its ambitious
permanent, in-sector reductions through the ramp-up in -50% climate goal in 2050 and pursue net-zero emissions by
alternative energy and new technology. It is not envisioned 2060/65 at a global level, with some parts of the world hitting
that investing in out-of-sector carbon reduction should be the that point earlier. There is enough feedstock to produce the
primary means of meeting long-term goals. Due to the long necessary SAF and hydrogen is a realistic possibility for some
time horizons of fleet turnover and the global nature of the aircraft. Efficiency will continue to improve and modern air
industry, it is expected that there could be a need to remove transport will remain a key driver of connectivity, business
residual CO2 emissions, even if aviation manages to meet 100% and social connections across the world well after 2050.
of its energy requirements from SAF, and progresses radical »» Due to the nature of technology developments, the energy
new technologies. But the types of ‘offsets’ available in 2050 transition and political realities constantly changing, it is
will likely be restricted as demand from other sectors also envisioned that this report may also be subject to change as
grows. Forestry, natural carbon sinks and carbon removal the outlook evolves.
opportunities may play a role in 2050 and beyond.
6 Waypoint 2050

10 QUESTIONS

Q1 Q2
Can aviation meet its climate Is net-zero emissions
goal in 2050? possible in aviation?
Yes. But it will take an enormous effort by committed Yes. Based on aggressive scenarios developed for
industry experts, governments, the finance sector Waypoint 2050 and a shift to low carbon energy with
and the research community to make it a reality. It will some use of ‘offsets’, net-zero emissions from aviation
mean a rapid and massive transformation of aviation’s will likely be possible worldwide sometime in the decade
‘drop-in’ liquid energy supply using sustainable aviation or so after 2050 (with some regions able to move faster
fuel — from both traditional sources and new sources towards this point). But in order to meet this goal,
such as power-to-liquid — over the course of just 30 collaborative action across the ecosystem (governments,
years. It will also require an acceleration in aircraft research, finance, energy sector and aviation itself) will
and engine technology development, including faster be needed. Unlike most other sectors, aviation does not
progress towards new types of propulsion: electric, yet have readily available solutions. But aviation also
hybrid and hydrogen powered aircraft. It is possible, but it has a strong track record of innovation and collaborative
is going to be a significant challenge. action which makes it a strong candidate for achieving
such a monumental shift.

Q3 Q4
Will aviation rely on offsets to Will shifting to sustainable aviation
meet its goals, or to shift to fuels require large amounts of land, or
net-zero emissions? impact food and water use?
The expectation is that offsets (or other forms of out- No. Airlines have committed to ensuring a shift to
of-sector carbon reductions available in 2050) are not sustainable aviation fuel will be done with fuels “which
primarily relied on to meet the goal, although there conserve an ecological balance by avoiding the depletion
will inevitably be some emissions that offsets can help of natural resources”5. Analysis has shown that 100% of
mitigate. Depending on the progress of technology aviation fuel in 2050 can come from sustainable sources
development (both in carbon capture / direct air capture — including some (non-food or rotational) crops, waste
and for aviation technology and energy deployment), sources and fuels made from renewable electricity and CO2
there may be an increased role to play for some form of removed from the air. Robust mechanisms need to be put in
market mechanism or offsetting. In the long term, the place to ensure the sustainability of these fuels — a global
removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere will be key, not just industry can also lead to pockets of less stringent regulation
compensating for unavoidable emissions. — but a full shift to sustainable sources is possible.

Q5 Q6
When will passengers be able to board Can we speed up the transition to fully
electric or hydrogen aircraft? sustainable aviation?
Sooner than may be expected! Already, there are small With enough money, anything can be sped up, but only
commercial aircraft being test flown using retro-fitted electric as far as technology, materials and politics allow. At
engines. Scaling this up to regional and short-haul aircraft the same time as aviation is trying to decarbonize its
will take the next 15-20 years, but passengers might be able to energy system and develop radical new technologies,
purchase tickets for electric, hybrid-electric or hydrogen flights the rest of the world is also tasked with decarbonising
around the 2035 timeframe. There is a lot of work still to be other sectors in the economy. We believe the Waypoint
done. Battery technology is progressing quickly but needs to be 2050 scenarios presented here to be a realistic and still
accelerated to provide enough energy for the right size of aircraft aspirational timeline for development. There is a good
over reasonable distances. Hydrogen is an increasingly viable case for current fossil fuel subsidies around the world to
option, but aircraft and engine systems need to be developed and be re-directed towards low-carbon energy which would
storage must be progressed. And then the manufacturers must help speed up the transition.
complete safety and operational certification in completely new
types of technology, as well as sell these novel aircraft types to
airlines. Importantly for both options: increased production and
new distribution systems of low carbon electricity and green
hydrogen are required to make them a reality.
 Waypoint 2050 7

Q7 Q8
Will tickets cost more in future to pay Is it not easier to simply reduce
for new technologies or new fuels? passenger growth?
This is not an easy question to answer, as airline ticket Reducing passenger growth (either by reducing supply
prices comprise a range of costs and the price to the with fewer seats or reducing demand by increasing ticket
public doesn’t always reflect the underlying costs of taxes) will not necessarily reduce CO2 emissions in the
things such as fuel or aircraft purchases. In addition, way many think and will inevitably restrict air travel for
while the cost of sustainable aviation fuel may be higher less wealthy citizens. The steps taken in this report and
than fossil fuel, it is unknown how much the cost of our recommendations will allow us to restrict the growth
fossil fuel may evolve (particularly as other transport of CO2 emissions, but not the connectivity, societal or
modes shift to electricity or hydrogen). Based on today’s economic benefits that come from air travel being available
estimates, it is likely the cost of energy for aviation may to people everywhere. The growth rates identified in this
be higher in the future, but this could also be partially report are also at a lower level, generally, than aviation has
offset by an increase in efficiency with new technologies experienced in the last decade, signifying a shift to slightly
and improvements in operational performance. What lower levels of growth (and that growth taking place mainly
we do know is that aviation will continue to serve global in emerging economies whose citizens should have the
connectivity in all parts of the world, even if tickets are a chance to enjoy economic prosperity experienced in more
little more expensive in the future. established parts of the world for years).

Q9 Q10
How has Covid-19 and the shutdown of Some countries or regions have specific
air traffic impacted the analysis? roadmaps for aviation climate action,
Aviation has never experienced an impact on the system how does this compare?
as severe as the one caused by Covid-19 in 2020. The The Waypoint 2050 analysis is on a global basis and has tried
immediate hit on the industry is obvious, but there will to take into account the varying rates of decarbonisation
likely be a very long-term reduction in growth projections and geopolitical environments in regions and countries
as a result of the slow recovery. The central traffic around the world. Due to the nature of a global analysis, the
forecast used for Waypoint 2050 has reduced by around timeframe and roadmap cannot be as precise as that for
16% in 2050, compared with the pre-Covid forecast. a specific country (or individual company), but the various
However, despite the severe financial state of the sector technology and energy solutions should be aligned. ATAG
over the next five years, commitment to climate action encourages all parts of the industry to focus on how they
remains strong. can play a role in accelerating a decarbonisation pathway.
8 Waypoint 2050

CALLS TO ACTION AS PART OF A DECARBONISATION PATHWAY

A range of actions will be needed to help reduce emissions in line with the scenarios presented in Waypoint 2050. In each
section of the report, action points for different stakeholder groups are explored in detail. Here is a summary of the broad
areas of action.

Technology Operations and

Infrastructure
•S
 ignificantly scale-up avenues for collaborative • Significantly scale-up avenues for collaborative
approaches – within industry, between industry approaches – within industry, between industry
and governments and with the research and governments and with the research
community and other stakeholders. community and other stakeholders.

Aviation sector Aviation sector

•A
 ccelerate research into radical airframe designs, • Work in partnership to re-build air traffic volumes
electric and hydrogen propulsion. based on optimised flight profiles.
•F
 orm partnerships with non-aviation technology • Work towards full implementation of fixed
providers. electrical ground power, weight-based efficiency
•P
 rovide incubator opportunities for new green measures, continuous approach and departure,
technology start-ups. airport collaborative decision making, aerodynamic
•W
 ork to prepare for new energy requirements for efficiency opportunities and assisted taxiing
electric and hydrogen aircraft. opportunities.
• Collaborate to speed up investigating, testing and
Governments and policymakers certification of new efficiency measures.
•C  ontinue to fund research programmes where • Encourage efficiency action throughout the system.
they exist, develop projects where they do not. • Investigate new approach technologies and
• I mplement the ICAO CO 2 Standard. procedures at all applicable airports.
• Develop wider energy strategy to, aside from •Investigate opportunities for increased use of
deploying sustainable aviation fuel, include intermodality, including for connecting air passenger
hydrogen and low-carbon electricity requirements traffic and for passenger access to airports.
of aviation.
Governments and policymakers
• Prepare agencies for certification processes for next
generation aircraft, including with unconventional • Make military airspace flexible use.
airframe, materials and energy sources. • Implement the ICAO Aviation System Block
Upgrades.
Research institutions • Encourage and fund, where viable, intermodal
• Ensure research programmes for new technology transport planning.
reflect real-world requirements
• Continue research in collaboration with industry Research institutions
into non-CO 2 effects of aviation. • Focus on operational procedure improvements for
aviation system.
Energy industry
•P
 lan strategic energy needs, including potential Energy industry
for aviation requirements for low-carbon • Work in partnership with airports to ensure low
electricity and low-carbon hydrogen. carbon energy supply.

Finance community Finance community

•F
 ocus on funding new efficient aircraft acquisition • Fund infrastructure upgrades and developments to
and explore sustainable finance opportunities. meet system efficiency needs.
Other stakeholders Other stakeholders
•C
 ollaborate on synergies with automotive, battery • Pursue community and aviation system
and hydrogen sectors to encourage development engagement on new procedures and techniques for
of feed-in technology pathways for aviation. air traffic management.
 Waypoint 2050 9

Sustainable Offsetting or out-

aviation fuel of-sector carbon
reductions
• Significantly scale-up avenues for collaborative • Significantly scale-up avenues for collaborative
approaches – within industry, between industry approaches – within industry, between industry
and governments and with the research and governments and with the research
community and other stakeholders. community and other stakeholders.

Aviation sector Aviation sector

• All airlines should investigate sustainable aviation • Investigate partnership opportunities with future
fuel opportunities – small or large. Start by doing offset providers.
a first test flight.
• Make substantial and bold SAF offtake Governments and policymakers
agreements at an early stage. • Support the ICAO Carbon Offsetting and Reduction
• Make the case to governments and the finance Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and
community for SAF scale-up. ensure it continues to evolve.
• Bring passengers and major customers on board • Set a long-term CO 2 goal through ICAO.
with sustainable aviation fuel financing. • Do not duplicate market mechanisms, base any
domestic measures on CORSIA principles.
Governments and policymakers • Work with fellow governments to conclude
• Foster a clean energy transition push across UNFCCC Article 6 discussions.
government, including for sustainable aviation fuel. • Promote development of carbon capture and
• Prioritise aviation (and other hard-to-abate removal opportunities.
sectors) as a user of alternative fuel.
• E xplore potential for SAF development at a Research institutions
national or regional level. • Accelerate development of carbon capture and
• Support development of SAF industry, including direct air capture efficiency.
attracting capital to expand SAF capacity through
loan guarantee programmes (de-risking the early Finance community
investment anxiety for new technologies), direct • Support development of carbon capture and direct
research and development activities for local SAF air capture opportunities.
production pathways and new energy industries,
committing to policy certainty. Other stakeholders
• Demonstrate leadership with a commitment for • Develop additional carbon credit products.
government travel to be undertaken on SAF, adopt
globally-recognised sustainability standards and
work to harmonise global standards, encourage
user-friendly sustainable aviation fuel accounting
methods and work to harmonise global standards.

Research institutions
• Implement SAF research programmes into
technology pathways, feedstock and emissions
reduction factor improvements, production
efficiency improvements.

Energy industry
• Demonstrate substantial commitment to
sustainable aviation fuel production and scale-up.

Finance community
• Focus funding on SAF opportunities worldwide.

Other stakeholders
• Other transport modes should prioritise best
available energy options.
10 Waypoint 2050
 Waypoint 2050 11

THE
CHALLENGE
 12 Waypoint 2050

AIR TRANSPORT HAS CONNECTED THE WORLD FOR MORE THAN A

CENTURY, WITH 86.5 BILLION6 PASSENGERS HAVING FLOWN SINCE THE
FIRST COMMERCIAL SERVICE TOOK OFF IN 1914. IT IS A SYSTEM RELIED ON
BY MILLIONS OF PEOPLE FOR CONNECTIVITY TO THEIR LOVED ONES; BY
BUSINESSES TO ENGAGE IN TRADE, DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION; BY
GOVERNMENTS TO ENCOURAGE THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TOURISM, AND TO
SUPPORT NEARLY 88 MILLION JOBS WORLDWIDE.

The world with modern, rapid, air transport is a rich and transport mode. A majority of these are international services
rewarding one. The fundamental challenge is to ensure that and must therefore be dealt with by international rules
connectivity can continue, whilst working to significantly which have to balance the need to help grow economies
reduce its impact on the climate. But that overarching balance with the need to reign in CO2 emissions. The framework of
brings with it a number of underlying challenges which make the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is the
up counterbalancing dynamics, sometimes working against most effective place to achieve that balance. The aviation
each other. industry has played a leading and progressive role in pushing
governments meeting at ICAO to adopt global climate
standards, including the current process to develop a long-
Challenge: growth is not taking place term goal for CO2 emissions reduction.
evenly around the world
Political situations play a role when considering technological Challenge: forecasting
and policy solutions to global issues such as climate change.
Whilst air travel has been growing very quickly in the last There are a number of uncertainties when looking out ten
decade, the majority of that growth (and the growth to come years, let alone 30 or longer. How will traffic evolve? Will there
in the next 30 years) is in emerging economies. These nations be further shocks to the system that alter the fundamental
have a right to give their citizens access to the same business, growth patterns of mobility? What will be the price of fuel —
tourism and travel opportunities that those in established will it rise or fall as other sectors shift more easily to alternative
economies have enjoyed in the past 30-40 years. sources of energy? What will be the availability (and cost) of
offsets or other carbon mitigation options? When will new
Around 80% of air transport emissions are from flights technologies be available and how much can they contribute to
over 1,500 kilometres in length7, which have no alternative

Fuel efficiency through technology since the Operational efficiency since 1990,
early jet age8 global numbers9
The development of new airframes and engines has delivered Through deploying new technology, operational and
an 80% + improvement in the efficiency of aviation. infrastructure efficiencies and improvements in fleet
utilisation, a flight a passenger takes today will, on average,
produce 54.3% less CO 2 than the same flight in 1990.

100 300 2,000

90 1,800
250
Grams of CO2 per passenger kilometre

80 1,600
Grams of CO2 per tonne kilometre

Engine fuel
consumption
70 1,400
200
% of base (Comet 4)

60
1,200

50 49%
Aircraft fuel 150 1,000

40
burn per seat 54.3%
Lower CO 2 per 800
passenger kilometre
30 100
600
20
82% 400
10 50
200
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0 0
1996
1998

2006
2008

2016
2018
1990
1992
1994

2000
2002
2004

2010
2012
2014

Year of model introduction

 Waypoint 2050 13

reducing emissions? The interplay between these questions is amount of CO2 as a small car with average occupancy. Each
also important: if traffic reduces significantly, will airlines have generation of new aircraft improves fuel efficiency even
enough capital to invest in new fleets or sustainable fuels? Does further, but the gains through evolutionary technology are
the industry prioritise investing in technology development or getting more and more challenging to achieve. This is because
in an energy transition? air travel tends to be very efficient on a per-kilometre basis
Obviously, each of these tracks can generate many hundreds already, given its speed and ability to cover large distances.
of different forecasts and scenarios. Bringing them together Significant CO2 savings will continue to materialise in the
increases further the complexity. Waypoint 2050 attempts coming decade through continuous fleet renewal with today’s
to focus on several likely scenarios that represent potential new generation aircraft providing immediate 20-25% fuel- and
paths forward, as identified by industry experts involved in CO2 savings compared to the previous generation.
the analysis.
Inevitably, analysis with so many variables raise more Challenge: cost of the transition is high
questions. The hope is that Waypoint 2050 can provide and the technology is not available… yet
a basis for further discussions about aviation’s future
Aviation is inherently a costly business, with low margins for
emissions trajectory.
its frontline airline operators. Aircraft are high-value assets
that take a long time to build, and a long time to pay off. Unlike
Challenge: aviation is already cars and many other machines, aircraft can remain in useful
remarkably efficient service for 25+ years and so fleet turnover tends to be slow. An
airline or lessor which has spent hundreds of millions on an
Fuel efficiency has been a key driver of development since the
aircraft is unlikely to want to upgrade without a reasonable
dawn of the air transport industry. The sector has shown a
return on investment.
consistent improvement in:
For example, the combined fleet value of the ten largest leasing
»» The efficiency of technology platforms (engines and
companies in the world — comprising 6,863 aircraft, or just
airframe developments): 85% improvement since the
under 20% of the world fleet — is $205 billion11. Airlines have
first jet engines in the 1950s.
spent over a trillion dollars on new aircraft orders since the
»» Operational efficiency (the combination of technology industry climate goals were agreed in 200912.
across the entire aircraft fleet, the way these aircraft
The transition to radical new technologies will require
are operated, the infrastructure environment and the
significant investment by the commercial aerospace
utilisation of assets — load factors on board flights): 55%
sector, research institutions and governments. Once a new
improvement (combined technology, operations and
technology has been identified, the aerospace sector must
load factor) since 1990.
work to commercialise at scale in order for prototypes and
A passenger taking a flight today produces around the same commercial versions to be produced, sold to airlines, put

Comparison of operational fuel efficiency between different modes of transport, 2014 EU10
Using European Union data, this chart shows the operational CO 2 emissions of air transport compared with other European
averages (data for 2014, with update to aviation figure in 2018. If analysis only included the latest generation of aircraft, the
potential is for around 50g of CO 2 per passenger kilometre).

PASSENGER 14 (assume nuclear or renewable electricity)

RAIL 28 European average

BUS 68

SMALL 42 with 4 passengers (petrol / gas)

CAR 104 1.5 passengers*

AIR 108 European fleet average (2014)

TRAVEL 96 European fleet average (2018)

LARGE 58 with 4 passengers (petrol / gas)

CAR 158 1.5 passengers*

Grams of CO2 per passenger kilometre

*Average occupancy of cars is around 1.5. These figures do not include embedded emissions
from construction and maintenance of infrastructure, which are less important for aviation.
 14 Waypoint 2050

Efficiency improvements have been impressive, more work needed

Efficiency measures have already saved 11 Gt of CO ² since 1990, but further work is needed to get the sector down to the industry
goal in 2050 (the required emissions reductions are explored in this publication), and further towards net-zero at a global level.
ATAG analysis.

5,000
4,770 Mt
CO ² (millions of tonnes)

4,000

Emissions reductions already achieved:

3,000 over 11 Gt of CO ² avoided through Required 2050
emissions emissions
investment in technology and operational reductions
improvements since 1990 without
2,000 additional
efforts:
1,800 Mt
1,000
Carbon-neutral Industry
growth goal: 325 Mt
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

through rigorous testing and certification procedures and It is important to note that not all gases have the same climate
then entered into service. The development of a new aircraft impacts. CO2 is the most notable greenhouse gas because
type using evolutionary technology can be up to ten years and of its long life, whereas some other gases (such as methane
cost tens of billions of dollars13. To introduce radical technical from agriculture and waste) have a much stronger impact on
changes (such as hybrid, hydrogen or electric aircraft) will climate change, but a very short life.
command a similar or greater level of investment. One of the most visible signs of aircraft movements are the
On top of the aircraft themselves, their operation brings with contrails left behind as flights move through some areas of
it incentives to reduce fuel use (and therefore emissions), with the atmosphere. These are made up of ice crystals from the
airlines spending $188 billion on fuel in 2019. This represents condensation of water vapour (like naturally-occurring clouds)
just under a quarter of operating costs (and the same amount produced from the combustion process inside the engine.
as spent on labour)14. The development of a new energy system The impact of contrails (and the hazy cirrus clouds they
for aviation will also require significant investment. The most sometimes generate as they dissipate) on climate change
attractive option is through drop-in sustainable aviation is complex and still includes large uncertainties, despite
fuel which can make use of existing fuel systems in aircraft advances in research. Some recent studies have shown that
and at the world’s 3,780 commercial airports. There are still contrail-induced cirrus could help cool the planet during the
high levels of investment required in the production and day, but warm it at night, similar to ordinary clouds.
distribution of the sustainable fuel, but not to the extent of
It is actually possible to avoid creating contrails, either by
building a whole separate network as would be needed with,
flying around the areas of super-saturated cold air in which
for example, hydrogen.
they form, or flying at a different altitude. However, this brings
This is against a backdrop of a race for all other sectors also to with it some downsides, as airlines could use more fuel (and
decarbonise — with many of the other transport and industrial therefore emit more CO2) to avoid these areas. The emission
sectors able to make the transition sooner, due to existing of any additional unnecessary CO2 , however, needs to be
technologies already being available. prevented wherever possible.
A number of airlines and aviation experts are engaged with
Challenge: CO2 is not the research teams to investigate the impacts of contrails further.
only consideration While chances are good to avoid contrail formation with
almost negligible CO2 penalties, the bigger challenge is to
This report, and the analysis that underpins it, concentrates
obtain highly reliable meteorological data and to re-arrange
on the reduction of CO2 emissions from commercial aviation
flights on fewer flight levels in busy airspaces.
services. However, air transport also produces other
greenhouse gases. Whilst carbon dioxide is the greenhouse Some of the technology solutions being developed and
gas that has the most long-term impact, there are other explored in this report also have a positive impact on the
emissions from flight. Recent analysis has shown that the full other non-CO2 impacts of aviation. Sustainable aviation fuels
impact of aviation may be around 3.5% of all anthropogenic can reduce contrail formation as they contain no sulphur
climate impact15. nor aromatic hydrocarbons, their exhaust is almost free of
particulate matter, which is necessary to make water vapour
The exhaust of a jet engine is made up of:
condense into contrails. Electric and hydrogen energy supply
»» 5% to 6% CO2; would have virtually no contrail formation. Using hydrogen
»» 2% water vapour; leads to increased water vapour emissions, but due to the lack
»» around 0.03% nitrogen oxides, unburned hydrocarbons, of particles contrail formation is suppressed16. Each new type
carbon monoxide and sulphur oxides; of energy would burn cleaner than fossil jet fuel and would also
»» traces of hydroxyl family and nitrogen compounds and therefore likely produce fewer particulate matter emissions.
small amounts of soot particles; and The important focus is how to bring down CO2 emissions
»» between 91.5% and 92.5% is normal atmospheric oxygen in balance with reducing other environmental impacts of
and nitrogen. the sector.
 Waypoint 2050 15

A NOTE ON
COVID-19

GATE
16 Waypoint 2050

THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS ON ALL ASPECTS OF THE ECONOMY

AND SOCIETY IS WELL KNOWN. THE IMPACT ON AVIATION HAS BEEN
PARTICULARLY ACUTE, EQUIVALENT TO ADDING TOGETHER THE EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS SHOCKS (9/11, SARS, THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND
EYJAFJALLAJÖKULL ERUPTION AIRSPACE CLOSURE) INTO ONE ‘BLACK SWAN’
EVENT WHICH WILL HAVE FAR-REACHING IMPLICATIONS ON THE INDUSTRY
FOR MANY YEARS.

Whilst the size of the crisis is unprecedented, history has shown levels of passengers or traffic until 2024. Particularly impacted
that air transport services and the desire to travel does return, will be the long-haul traffic which makes up a large proportion
eventually. The Covid-19 crisis may have several impacts on the of industry revenue passenger kilometres, the key metric used
analysis of this report, and the changes it is intended to drive. in Waypoint 2050 analysis.
Some of those (for example a potential impact on investment Shocks to air traffic growth in the past have always been
capacities) are commented on below but not included in this followed by a reversion to trend, but the severe nature of this
analysis, as they are not immediately qualifiable. shutdown and the slow return to travel may have much further-
reaching implications than expected. The central passenger
Traffic forecasts growth scenario used for Waypoint 2050 was already based
on lower growth rates than had been experienced in the last
There have been reductions in passenger traffic caused by decade and which are likely lower than some other forecasts.
shocks in the past, but never a near total shutdown of the full But the analysis also now includes a reflection of what will likely
global system. At the peak of the shutdown in mid-April 2020, be a ‘new normal’ in air travel: an industry smaller than was
the number of flights operating globally was an average of a expected just a year ago.
quarter the number operating just six weeks earlier17 (and many
of these flights were operating with very limited occupancy: The post-Covid-19 revision of long-term growth suggests that
revenue passenger kilometres fell some 94.3% compared with the central traffic forecast used for Waypoint 2050 is around
April 201918). 16% lower in 2050 than it was in a pre-Covid world. This is
due to:
The re-opening of routes is going to be slow, as a result of
government health measures and the concerns of passengers »» a slow recovery from a severe drop-off in traffic in the 2020
to travel too far from home. This, accompanied by the broader year, likely to not recover to 2019 levels until 2024, and
economic conditions resulting from Covid-19 suggests that completely re-baselining the growth of air travel;
there will be a prolonged period of soft demand. Many industry »» a longer-term impact on GDP growth in economies around
analysts suggest the industry may not return to pre-Covid-19 the world;

Global air passengers (billions) 1914-2020F19

Previous crises have resulted in a fairly rapid return to trend. The Covid-19 situation will likely see a much slower recovery and has
been so impactful on traffic that it has re-set the baseline of growth for decades ahead.
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

5.0
9/11 FOLLOWED BY SARS

4.5
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

4.0
1918 / 1919 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC

3.5
Passengers (billions)

3.0
9
1973 OIL SHOCK

GULF WAR

2.5
SECOND WORLD WAR
GREAT DEPRESSION
FIRST WORLD WAR

10
2.0 8
7 9
COVID-19

1.5 6

1.0 5

0.5
1 2 3 4
2020F
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
 Waypoint 2050 17

»» a reduction in the propensity to travel due to concerns Investment environment

over health situation at destinations and the potential for
quarantine inconvenience — this will recover as the world The area where efficiency may be impacted in the medium-
eases out of the Covid-19 crisis, but there may be a long tail term by the Covid-19-associated economic recession will be the
of concern, particularly amongst older travellers; investment environment. This has several possible impacts:
»» a reduction in business travel in the medium-term, due »» The ability for airlines to invest in new aircraft, at least
to a soft corporate financial situation and the reliance for a few years, will be limited as they fight for survival.
on video conferencing and remote working during the Coupled with the extremely low cost of fuel, there could
shutdown leading to a change in behaviour amongst be an incentive to retain older aircraft longer. However, it
corporate travellers. is unlikely that brand new aircraft will not be delivered,
and that the price of fuel will remain as low as it has been
in early 2020. There are also a number of governments
Efficiency improvements investigating the opportunity to support airline investment
The reduction in air travel has had a dramatic impact on the in new aircraft or accelerated retirement of older aircraft
use of aircraft. At its peak, the Covid-19 shutdown saw 64% as part of assistance packages. Such programmes could
of the global jet fleet grounded21 and, given the long recovery materialise immediate and significant CO2 reductions due
expected, some of those aircraft will not re-enter service. At to new aircraft being 20 to 25% more fuel efficient.
the same time, a backlog of 11,650 new aircraft were due to »» Airlines, governments and energy suppliers may find it
enter service over the coming years, prior to the shutdown22. A challenging to invest in the infrastructure and forward
number of these orders may be delayed or cancelled, but many purchase agreements required to facilitate the energy
of them are already in production or awaiting delivery. This transition needed towards sustainable aviation fuel. This,
could lead to competing efficiency outcomes: however, is a vital step for an industry with few other
»» An accelerated retirement of older (less efficient) aircraft. options for energy sources and is in need of acceleration:
governments should see this crisis as an opportunity to
»» A higher percentage of newer (more efficient) aircraft build new energy industries across the world as part of a
in fleets. green recovery.
»» A short-term reduction in the delivery of newer aircraft. »» Airframe and engine manufacturers are also facing
»» A medium-term reduction in the purchase of newer aircraft. a significant financial impact which may create a
Already, airlines have announced retirements of older model challenging investment environment for development
aircraft, particularly large four-engine models such as the of new conventional aircraft and research into radical
Boeing 747-400, Airbus A340 and A380. However, a number technology shifts.
of narrowbody older generation aircraft are also being Despite these challenges, the industry has committed to
permanently parked because of the crisis. maintaining its efficiency and long-term emissions reduction
How these short- and medium-term developments will impact strategy, even in the face of the unprecedented crisis of 2020.
the fuel efficiency of the sector remains to be seen, however the Additionally, the industry is urging governments to use
timelines being considered in Waypoint 2050 will not likely be stimulus financing to help push new technology research and
impacted by these short-term developments. development and as a way to kick-start the energy transition
away from fossil fuels.

Global air passenger traffic forecast comparison, pre- and post-Covid20

Comparison between the traffic forecasts used before Covid-19 hit and those used in the Waypoint 2050 report: the deep impact of
Covid-19 on passenger traffic, as well as the long recovery will mean a 16% reduction in traffic in the central scenario in 2050.

35

30
Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKS)

25
H
16%
reduction in
20 C
2050 traffic for
L
central forecast
15

10

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

H WAYPOINT C WAYPOINT L WAYPOINT

2050 TRAFFIC 2050 TRAFFIC 2050 TRAFFIC PRE-COVID-19 POST-COVID-19 HISTORICAL
FORECAST: HIGH FORECAST: CENTRAL FORECAST: LOW FORECAST FORECAST
18 Waypoint 2050