Critical path analysis

Introduction

Critical path analysis is a project planning technique that can assist in identifying all
the activities required for the successful completion of a project and the expected
time required to complete the entire project. The critical path refers to the set of
activities in which there is no slack; in other words, if any of the activities on the
critical path over-runs its time, then the whole project will be delayed.

Networks and dependences

In a network the planned activities are linked logically - to show the dependences,
that is, where tasks cannot be started until earlier tasks have been completed.
Networks provide a model of the overall activity which are not necessarily time
dependent and which can be more difficult to describe than can be achieved using a
Gantt chart. On the other hand, they can easily show which activities are
dependent on others and which are critical.

It is important to
differentiate
Consult
Consult Do
Do Prepare
Prepare
members research proposals between events and
members research proposals
activities. An
activity needs time
to undertake
whereas an event is a milestone: a specific point in time such as the end of an
activity. This may also be a signal for the next activity to commence.

Imagine that you are about to embark on a project and have identified the
following activities:
Task Analysis Chart
No. Task Dependence Duration
A. Consult with members 30 days
Critical path analysis

B. Undertake research Task 1 60 days

C. Prepare draft proposals Task 2 20 days
D. Build alliances with stakeholders Task 1 30 days
E. Seek meetings with policy makers Task 1 10 days
F. Modify draft proposals Tasks 3, 4,5 10 days
G. Meet with Minister Task 6 1 day
H. Publish final proposals Task 6 5 days
I. Issue press release Tasks 7, 8 1 day
The network in
30
30 60
60 20
20 10 11 the figure shows a
10
11 22 33 66 77 99 typical set of
activities (shown
30
30
30
30 10
10 as lines, with their
55 durations) and
44 88
events (the end of
30
30 10
10 an activity, shown

55
Critical path analysis 1
 as circles). The path requiring the longest time (and which will therefore delay the
entire project if a delay in any activity occurs) is critical and is highlighted.

One effective way of setting out the model is to use boxes which show activities
start times, durations and finish times.

Start by setting these out

Earliest Earliest
showing which activities follow
start Activity finish
other activities and add the
time time durations. Note that some
Latest Latest activities can be undertaken in
start Duration finish parallel but that others cannot
time time start until specified earlier
tasks have been completed.

Now, starting from the left, show the earliest possible start times in the left hand
box and earliest possible finish times in the top right hand box. Note that the
earliest start time for activity C is the earliest finish time for activity B.

This gives the earliest finish time for the entire project of 126 days. Now, starting
from the right and working backwards, enter the latest permissible finish time in
the bottom right hand corner and latest permissible start time in the bottom left
hand corner.

The critical path can now be seen as the path which includes the critical activities of
A, B, C, F, H and I. If there is any delay in any of these activities, the entire
project will be delayed. There is, however, some slack for activities D, E and H.

2 Private sector advocacy

 Activity E, for example, could start up to 40 days late and still not delay the project
(provided of course that it was completed in its allowed time).

Computerised project planning software makes the preparation of critical path

networks very easy. Most have the facility to add resource requirements. Critical
path can also be used to monitor progress and are easily amended if necessary.

Handling uncertainty

Invariably, the estimates of time required will be exactly that – estimates. They
may be based on previous similar projects or they may have been determined by
looking at the detailed requirements for each activity. For most projects undertaken
by a BMO, Gantt charts and Critical Path Analysis will probably be quite sufficient.
For larger projects, however, especially where the final completion date is critical, it
may be necessary to use statistical methods or simulation methods to give a
greater degree of confidence in the likely finish time. Programme evaluation and
review technique (PERT), for example, requires the duration of each activity to be
defined to give the most optimistic duration (with, say, only a 10% chance of doing
better), the most likely duration and the most pessimistic duration (with, say, only
a 10% chance of doing worse). These are then used to calculate the standard
deviation and mean completion times each activity and so for the entire project

The mean time or expected time (te)is not the most likely time, but the average
time if the activity is undertaken many times over. A close approximation for the
expected time is given by the formula:

(to + 4tm + tp)

te =
6

Where to is the most optimistic, tp is the most pessimistic and tm is the most likely
time. If the optimistic and pessimistic times are equidistant from the most likely,
than the expected time will equal the most likely. Frequently, however, the most
pessimistic time will be further away.

Imagine for example, that you need to appoint a consultant to undertake part of
your project. You know from experience that recruiting a consultant typically takes
10 weeks, by the time you have written terms of reference, identified suitable
consultants, sent them the invitation to tender, given them time to prepare a
proposal, selected the most appropriate, and given them time to start. If you can
identify consultants quickly, give them a little less time than usual to respond,
speed up the selection process, and they can start straight away, you may reduce
the time required to eight weeks. On the other hand, you may take longer than
expected to identify consultants who could pitch, longer to select the best
consultant and they can’t start for a month, giving a pessimistic time of 18 weeks.
Thus the expected time for this activity would be

(8 + 4(10) + 18)
te = = 11 weeks
6
This is the time that you would use in your critical path analysis or your Gantt
chart. You may think this is unnecessarily complicated, but if for example you were
building a new office, using borrowed money, then any delays could have serious
implications for the total cost.

Critical path analysis 3