Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Atika Rubab (17), Sidra Ishfaq (10), Tayab Tariq (47)

Population, Settlement and Urbanization of Pakistan (PKS-406)

Ms. Ayesha Tahir

BS-Pakistan Studies: Semester 8th

Department of Pakistan Studies, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan

Submission date: 3-04-2023

Contents List:

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

1. Introduction
2. Definitions
3. Stages of Demographic Transition Model
4. Significance of DTM
5. Limitations of DTM

Demographic Transition in Pakistan

1. Declining Mortality
2. Falling Behind in Fertility Transition
3. Policy Response
4. Conclusion
 Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

1. Introduction:

Beginning in the late 1700s, something remarkable happened: death rates declined. With new
technologies in agriculture and production, and advancements in health and sanitation, a greater
number of people lived through their adolescent years, increasing the average life expectancy
and creating a new trajectory for population growth. This sudden change created a shift in
understanding the correlation between birth and death rates, which up to that point had both been
relatively equal, regardless of location.

The observation and documentation of this global phenomenon has produced a model,
the Demographic Transition Model, which helps explain and make sense of changes in
population demographics. The demographic transition model operates on the assumption that
there is a strong association between birth and death rates, on the one hand, and industrialization
and economic development on the other. The theory is based on an interpretation
of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson
(1887–1973). In the 1940s and 1950s Frank W. Notestein developed a more formal theory of
demographic transition. By 2009, the existence of a negative correlation between fertility and
industrial development had become one of the most widely accepted findings in social science.

2. Definitions:

Demography: is the statistical study of human populations. Demography examines the size,
structure, and movements of populations over space and time.

Birth rate: This is the number of live births per years per thousand people. It is calculated by
dividing the number of births in a country by the total population and then multiplying by 1000.

Death rate: This is the number of deaths per years per thousand people. It is calculated by
dividing the number of deaths in a country by the total population and then multiplying by 1000.
Natural Increase/Decrease: This is the change in the total population of a country because of
births and deaths (i.e. not including migration). If the birth rate is higher than the death rate then
the population will increase. If the death rate is higher than the birth rate then the population will
decrease.

Demographic Transition Model:

In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the

historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology,
education (especially of women) and economic development, to low birth rates and low death
rates in societies with advanced technology, education and economic development, as well as the
stages between these two scenarios.

Factors affecting birth rate Factors affecting death rate

3. Stages of Demographic Transition Model:

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) suggests that a country’s total population growth
rate cycles through stages as that country develops economically. Each stage is characterized by
a specific relationship between birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and
death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people). Within the model, a country will
progress over time from one stage to the next as certain social and economic forces act upon the
birth and death rates.
Stage 1 - High Fluctuating

In Stage 1, which applied to most of the world before the Industrial Revolution, both birth rates
and death rates are high. As a result, population size remains fairly constant but can have major
swings with events such as wars or pandemics.

Reasons:
Birth Rate is high as a result of:
 Lack of family planning
 High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
 Need for workers in agriculture
 Religious beliefs
 Children as economic assets

Death Rate is high because of:

 High levels of disease
 Famine
 Lack of clean water and sanitation
 Lack of health care
 War
 Lack of education
Typical of Britain in the 18th century, and the least economically developed countries today.

Stage 2 - Early Expanding

In Stage 2, the introduction of modern medicine lowers death rates, especially among children,
while birth rates remain high; the result is rapid population growth. Many of the least developed
countries today are in Stage 2.

Reasons:
Death Rate is falling as a result of:
 Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
 Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
 Improved sanitation
 Improved food production and storage
 Improved transport for food
 Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

Stage 3 - Late Expanding

In Stage 3, birth rates gradually decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions,
an increase in women’s status, and access to contraception. Population growth continues, but at a
lower rate. Most developing countries are in Stage 3.

Reasons
 Family planning available
 Lower Infant Mortality Rate
 Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
 Increased standard of living
 Changing status of women
Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating

In Stage 4, birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. Most developed
countries are in Stage 4.

Reasons:

 These countries tend to have

 Stronger economies
 Higher levels of education
 Better healthcare
 A higher proportion of working women
 Fertility rate hovering around two children per woman.

Typical of USA: Sweden: Japan: Britain.

Stage 5:
A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly
below replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful
population. The latest example can be taken of Japan and China, where the birth rate has fallen to
a dangerous level.

Every country can be placed within the DTM, but not every stage of the model has a country that
meets its specific definition. For example, there are currently no countries in Stage 1, nor are
there any countries in Stage 5, but the potential is there for movement in the future.

4. Significance of DTM:

The relationship between birth rate and death rate is an important concept when discussing
population and any patterns, such as those provided by the DTM, that aid in understanding are
helpful. Using the Demographic Transition Model, demographers can better understand a
country’s current population growth based on its placement within one of five stages and then
pass on that data to be used for addressing economic and social policies within a country and
across nations.

5. Limitations of DTM:

There are limitations of the demographic transition model:

o Limited Predictive Capacity: Each country has its own set of social and cultural attributes
that can heavily influence its demographics, causing them to operate differently than you
might expect based solely on the DTM.

o The DTM itself is continuing to shift: when first established, the demographic transition
model had just four stages. Demographers then added a fifth stage to accommodate new
trends in development they had noticed. Experts note that the DTM is likely to continue
to evolve as the real world evolves.

o Significant influence of migration: Both in- and out-migration affect natural and actual
increases and decreases in population, for which the demographic transition model does
not explicitly account.

Demographic Transition in Pakistan

Important demographic transitions are underway in Pakistan. Pakistan is slowly entering the
latest stage of the demographic transition, when both fertility and mortality rates rebalance at low
levels. Since 1998, Pakistan has been in the third stage of the demographic transition whereby
birth rates have fallen as a result of contraceptive awareness, wage increases and urbanization,
but not made headway in further reducing fertility rates to reach stage four, where birth rates are
equal to death rates i.e. the replacement level fertility rate.

The current population growth rate of 2.4% is unsustainable despite a decline from 3.1% prior to
1998 to 2.6% in 1998, which is still higher than anticipated 1.9%. If nothing changes, Pakistan’s
population will double in only 29 years, whereas the average doubling time for other South
Asian countries is about 58 years.

If Pakistan does not equate its birth rate and death rate by 2045 – requiring a total fertility rate
(TFR) of 2.1 – its productive population will be sandwiched between an ageing and an
adolescent population, both segments dependent on the smaller productive population segment.

1. Declining mortality:

Death rates have been falling steadily since the 1950s. The crude death rate was as high as
around 27 per 1,000 populations in 1950–1955 and declined to 7 per 1,000 by 2015–2020. This
decline has led to a very substantial increase in life expectancy. Since the middle of the twentieth
century, Pakistan has experienced exceptionally rapid improvements in life expectancy, rising
from 41 years in 1950–55 to 65 years today. These improvements are in large part due to the
global spread of medical and public health technology (e.g., immunization, antibiotics) and rising
standards of living and nutrition. Over the next 40 years, projections assume that life expectancy
will continue to rise, reaching 72 years in 2050. Thus the impact of mortality decline will
continue.

However, the overall figures hide a darker picture about mortality in the country, especially
under-5 mortality, which could affect the fertility decisions of couples attempting to increase the
chances of having enough surviving children. A baby born in Pakistan is 41 times more likely to
die in its first month than one born in Iceland, Japan, or Singapore and twice as likely compared
to a baby born in India or Bangladesh. Critical factors responsible for this high number include
the poor state of reproductive health care, closely spaced births, and insufficient nutrition,
especially during pregnancy. Once a baby has lived past the first month, its chance of survival
improves greatly.

2. Falling behind in fertility transition:

Fertility decline gained momentum in the 1990s, when the total fertility rate decreased from
around 5.0 children in 1990–1991 to 4.0 children by 2006–2007. Some transformations were
influential in initiating fertility reduction in the 1990s. However, most recognized determinants
that lead to a decrease in the number of births per woman have shown little change after 2006–
2007. Some of the main reasons for little transition in fertility rate are described as follows:

 Women marrying at young ages (from 21.4 years in 1990– 1991 to only 23.1 in 2017–
2018) have little awareness about family planning, lack of education and mostly jobless,
leading to a larger family size in most cases.
 Family-planning programs remain very weak overall. Unmet need for family planning
remains at 17%, one of the highest in South Asia. This translates into about 6 million
married women aged 15–49 who would like to maintain their current family size but do
not have access to modern contraception.
 Sharp inequalities exist in unmet need and contraceptive use by education and income
level, and across urban and rural populations.
 The short average interval between successive pregnancies is also inconsistent with a
robust fertility transition. The time between pregnancies decreased from an average of
29.1 months in 1990–1991 to a spacing interval of 28.2 months in 2017–2018.
 Decreased from six to four children on average between 1975 and 1991. However, since
2006–2007, there is no indication that women in Pakistan are moving away from a four-
child ideal, and acceptance of a two-child family size appears limited.
 Fertility will be considered “high” if it exceeds the replacement level of 2.1 children per
woman. Currently, replacement fertility equals 2.3 births per woman in Pakistan. Because
this level is above replacement, high fertility will remain one of the key forces
contributing to further population growth until replacement fertility is reached.

3. Policy Response:

Demographers and population specialists in Pakistan are most aware of these issues and
challenges and are taking steps to address them. The government has been taking proactive steps
to control population growth through multiple ways.

The Population Policy of Pakistan was launched in July 2002 with the vision to achieve
population stabilization by 2020.
Country Engagement Working Group (CEWG) was constituted in 2016 to review and steer the
efforts of the stakeholders working in family planning and reproductive health (FP/RH) to
achieve the commitments made by Pakistan at the London Summit (2012) on FP.

The Population Council in Islamabad is also leading a major effort around the demographic
issues in the country.

4. Conclusion

Pakistan is at a critical point in its demographic transition. After decades of rapid population
growth, the prospect of slower growth lies ahead because fertility is declining. The future
trajectory of population growth is very sensitive to the timing and extent of further fertility
declines. Any program-induced fertility decline changes the future trajectory of population
growth. A small change in fertility can have a large impact on future population size. According
to a standard projection, If a strong investment in family planning is made, the future population
of Pakistan will grow from 174 million to just 266 million by 2050. On the other hand, if no
further investment in family planning is made, then fertility could be higher and the population
of Pakistan could reach 342 million in 2050. The key policy question is how to reduce growth
through voluntary measures. An obvious response is to strengthen the family planning program.
Women in Pakistan have high levels of unmet need for contraception, and as a result many
unplanned and unwanted pregnancies occur each year. Therefore, another most effective way to
address these drivers of growth is through improvements in girls’ education. Preventing
unwanted and short interval pregnancies and reducing fertility and population growth lead to a
variety of health, social, and economic benefits.

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