PROJECT MANAGEMENT –

ESTIMATION , COSTING, SCHEDULING &

RISK MANAGEMENT
PROJECT FAI LURES ARE SERI OUS
❑ In 2016, at least 300,000 heart patients in NHS were given the wrong
drug or advise as a result of a software fault.

❑ In the mid-2000’s many Toyota drivers were reporting that their car
was accelerating without them touching the pedal.

❑ Ola, faced major security flaws within their system when software bugs
detected helped basic programmers enjoy unlimited free rides – at the
expense of Ola and at the expense of users. The issue went public
when customers brought up the weaknesses in the system.

❑ One of the most known glitches in history is the Amazon 1p price

glitch, where third-party sellers listed on Amazon saw their products
being priced at 1p each. While the products were delivered, numerous
small-time retailers had to appeal to the customers to return the items.

AND MANY MORE>>>>>>>>>>

PROJECT MANAGEMENT I S I MPORTANT
A Q UI CK CONTEX T
TH E LARGER PI CTURE
To manage the project iron
Needs triangle
PROJECT PROJECT MANAGEMENT
A project is a set of tasks that must be Project management is the process of
completed within a defined timeline to planning, organizing, and overseeing the
accomplish a specific set of goals overall execution of a project from the
beginning to its end.
Consists of following
phases
Includes
INITIATION Executed by Following key practices and
many more
Project team
PLANNING
Spread across
these phases
EXECUTION

RISK
MONITORING ESTIMATION COSTING SCHEDULING
MANAGEMENT
AND CONTROL
• Takes place through out the project life cycle
• Needed to manage the uncertainties in the project
CLOSING
TWO DI MENSI ONS I N PROJECT MANAGEMENT

• Small project both engg and PM can

be done informally

• Large projects require formality

• Formality: well defined processes

used for each task; measurements
used to control
SESSI ON DEEP DI VE

ESTIMATION, SCHEDULING AND

COSTING
ESTI MATI NG I S WHAT
YOU DO , WH EN YOU
DON’ T KNOW
ESTI MATI ON
• For a project total cost and duration
has to be committed in start.

• Requires effort estimation, often in

terms of person-months

• Effort estimate is key to planning -

schedule, cost, resources depend on it

• Many problems in project execution

stem from improper estimation
 KEY QUESTI ONS TH AT WOULD BE ANSWERED

• How much effort is required to complete an activity?

• How much calendar time is needed to complete an activity?

• What is the total cost of an activity?

Project estimation and scheduling are interleaved management activities

 ESTI MATI ON

• Early estimates are more likely to be inaccurate

than later
• More uncertainties in the start
• With more info, estimation becomes easier

• Estimation accuracy can improve with more

information about the project

• Hence estimation is always and iterative and

continuous process.
VARI OUS TYPES OF ESTI MATI ON
Bottom
Activity based/
Up/ top
Analytical
Down

Parametric
or
Ex Function points
algorithmic
models

Expert
Am just guessing here.
opinion

Comparative, ex :
Analogy
Story points

Parkinson
and ‘price Based on what I have
to win’
BOT TOM UP AND TOP DOWN

BOTTOM UP TOP DOWN

• used when no past project data available. • Based on past project data
• Identify all tasks that have to be done – so • Divides overall estimate between jobs to be
quite time-consuming done.

STOP WHEN YOU GET

BREAK PROJECT INTO DETERMINE SIZE USING DETERMINE OVERALL
WHAT ONE PERSON CAN
SMALLER COMPONENTS SIZING METHODS EFFORT
DO IN 1 OR 2 WEEKS

EFFORT IS SEEN AS Effort distribution data

ESTIMATE COSTS FOR ROLL UP ESTIMATES TO FUNCTION OF SIZE - Effort = from similar project are
LOWER LEVEL ACTIVITIES HIGHER LEVELS a * size b used to estimate effort for
( SIZE CAN BE kloc/ different phases
FUNCTION POINTS)
A LGORITHMIC/PARAMETRIC M ODELS
• COCOMO (lines of code) and function points examples of these.

• Estimates are arrived using determining ( estimating) the size of the product using expected
system characteristics.

System
algorithm Project size Effort
characteristic Apply
productivity

system characteristics can be

• no of screens
• no of reports
• no of entity types
• Number of input and output transactions
( function points )
E X PERT O PI NION
Several experts on the proposed software development techniques and the application domain are consulted. They
each estimate the project cost. These estimates are compared and discussed. The estimation process iterates until
an agreed estimate is reached.

PARKINSON’S L AW
Parkinson’s Law states that work expands to fill the time available. The cost is determined by available resources
rather than by objective assessment. If the software has to be delivered in 12 months and 5 people are available, the
effort required is estimated to be 60 personmonths.

P RI CING TO W I N
Pricing to win The software cost is estimated to be whatever the customer has available to spend on the project. The
estimated effort depends on the customer’s budget and not on the software functionality
S TORY P OI NT E STIMATION

W H AT I S A S T O R Y P O I N T ?

A story point or SP, is a relative unit of measure , decided upon and used by invidvual scrum teams to provide relative
estimates of effort for completing requirements.
It is done by teams using a technique called planning poker.
Story point estimates are part of agile methods and is now a widely used estimation technique
S TORY P OI NT E STIMATION
S CH EDULING I N P RACTICE
• A project Schedule is at two levels - overall schedule
and detailed schedule
• Overall schedule comprises of major milestones
and final date
• Detailed schedule is the assignment of lowest
level tasks to resources/teams.

• Overall schedule : Depends on total effort estimated.

• For example: a 56 PM project can be done in 8 months
(7 people) or 7 months (8 people)
I N A GI LE – S C H EDULING I S D O NE TO FACI LITATE VA LUE
D ELI VERY I N S M ALL I TERATIONS

Planning Planning Planning Planning Planning

event - event - event - event - event -
PROGRAM BOARD – VI SUALI SI NG DEPENDENI CES
BETWEEN TEAMS
S CH EDULING I N P RACTICE

• Various tools used in today’s project to schedule and manage projects.

Very effective for end to end view,

critical path dependencies, auto
scheduling, large complex projects

Frequently used in Agile projects

M S P ROJECT U S E C A SES AT A G L ANCE
END TO END VIEW – Needs experience to understand and use
HELPS VERSION CONTROL
GRID AND BOARD effectively, else becomes cumbersome.
OF BASELINES OF CHANGES
VIEW

GANNT VIEW- HELPS

TASK VIEW – DURATION, PEOPLE, EFFORT –
TRACKING DEPDENCIES
HELPS IN MANAGING TRIPLE CONSTRAINTS
A GI LE P ROJECTS – A V I EW I NTO S C H EDULING A N D
T RACKING

Scrum framework Kanban approach

Spotify agile model

Various Agile approaches exist today. But the overall principles applied don’t change - The variations happen to cater
to size,type, complexity of the programs involved.
A TYPI CAL JI RA BOARD
A TYPI CAL JI RA BOARD
MANAGEMENT
WH AT I S RI SK?

DUE TO FLOODS IN BANGALORE, THE 24*7 SUPPORT GOT IF THE 3RD PARTY VENDOR DOES NOT GIVE THE API DETAILS
DISRUPTED SINCE TEAM MEMBERS COULD NOT COME TO BY MONTH END, THEN OUR PROJECT WOULD BE DELAYED
OFFICE.

Issue Risk

Risk :: Anything that could prevent or marginalise

project success – if it materialises .
Risk is an issue, in the event it materialises.
A TYPI CAL RI SK LOG

Risk rating = Likelyhood of risk occurring * impact of risk

occurring.
Risk Likelihood ( 1/2/3) Impact ( 1/2/3) Rating

Disruption due to earthquake 1 3 3

in Bangalore
Key resources being on leave 3 3 9
during festive season
3rd party delaying their 2 2 4
delivery
THANK YOU