MAT201-SHS-SG-WK11

FUTURE READY FUTURE SMART PROGRAM

STUDY GUIDE

Subject STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Topic Probability and Random Variable
Level Grade 11
Week Week 11
School Year 3rd Quarter/SY 2021-2022

I. Objectives

− Recall solving simple probability problems.

− Illustrate a random variable (discrete and continuous).
− Distinguish between a discrete and a continuous random variable.
− Find the possible values of a random variable.
− Illustrate a probability distribution for a discrete random variable and its properties.

II. Discussion

Probability

An experiment is any procedure that can be infinitely repeated and has a well-defined set of
possible outcomes.

“A sample space, also called an outcome space, is simply the set of all possible outcomes in
a given selection or in a combination of selections (Albay 16)”. Determining the number of
outcomes is important in determining the probability of an event. In addition, determining the
sample spaces and events is also important.

A sample space or outcome space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. An
event refers to a part or portion of the sample space.

Remember that sample space and event are sets so they should be written in a set way
(roster form).

Example 1: Imagine a coin is tossed. The possible outcomes are tail and head (T and H). Then
the sample space is 𝑆 = {𝑇, 𝐻}. There are two possible events and those are 𝑋 = {𝑇, } and 𝑌 =
{𝐻}.

Example 2: Mrs. Reyes has 5 applicants for the positions of his secretaries. The five applicants
are Khryzhelle, Diana, Elaine, Trisha, and Lovelyn. Mr. Reyes is about to choose 1 secretary

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from five applicants (Khryzhelle, Diana, Elaine, Trisha, and Lovelyn). The sample space for this
is 𝑆 = {𝐾ℎ𝑟𝑦𝑧ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒, 𝐷𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑎, 𝐸𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒, 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑎, 𝐿𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑦𝑛} and some of the possible events are 𝑀
=
{𝐸𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒} and 𝐷 = {𝐿𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑦𝑛}.

Example 3: Mr. Santos is thinking of which woman he will invite as his partner for their
school’s prom. The women he’s considering are Raychelle, Vanessa, Niña, Jannica, Winnie,
and Abegail. Therefore, the sample space is 𝑆=
{𝑅𝑎𝑦𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒, 𝑉𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑎, 𝑁𝑖ñ𝑎, 𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑐𝑎, 𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑒, 𝐴𝑏𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑙}. Since Mr. Santos can only choose
one partner, then the possible events can only have one woman. Some examples of
possible events are 𝐴 = {𝑉𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑎}, 𝐵 = {𝐴𝑏𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑙}, and 𝐶 = {𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑐𝑎}.

Example 4: Ms. Garcia, a fashion specialist, wants to select two candidates to be his models.
There are three candidates and they are Shemmery, Jannina, and Akemie. Therefore, Mr.
Garcia has a sample space of 𝑆=
{(𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑦, 𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑎), (𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑦, 𝐴𝑘𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑒), (𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑎, 𝐴𝑘𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑒)}. Some of the possible
events are 𝐽 = {𝑆ℎ𝑒𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑦, 𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑎} and 𝐾 = {𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑎, 𝐴𝑘𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑒}.

Simple Probability

Since you know how to determine the sample space and events, then you can now compute
the probability of an event.

The probability of an event is a numerical value that describes the possibility that an event will
happen or not. It is simply calculated using the ratio of the number of events and the number
of the sample space (Albay 17).

Probability of an Event

The probability of an event, with the symbol P(E), is the numerical measure of the possibility
that an event will happen. It is calculated by determining the quotient of the number of
favorable outcomes and the total number of possible outcomes.
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝑆)

𝑛(𝐸) = the number of the elements in the event

𝑛(𝑆) = the number of the elements in the sample space

Example 1: Imagine a coin is tossed. The possible outcomes are tail and head. Then the
sample space is 𝑆 = {𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙, ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑}. There are two possible events and those are 𝑋 = {𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙} and
𝑌 = {ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑}. What is the probability of getting a tail from the coin?

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Our event pertains to getting a tail. In tossing a coin, you can only get a tail once. Therefore,
the number of elements in the event is only 1. Therefore, 𝑛(𝐸) = 1.

The sample space contains 2 possible outcomes which are 1 head and 1 tail. Therefore, 𝑛(𝑆)
=2

𝑛(𝐸) = 1

𝑛(𝑆) = 2

Computing for the probability:

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝑆)
𝟏
𝑷(𝑬) =
𝟐

𝑷(𝑬) = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟎

𝑷(𝑬) = 𝟓𝟎%

Therefore, there is a 50% possibility that you will get a tail in tossing a coin.

Example 2: David has a bag with 6 red, 4 blue, and 8 green marbles. What is the probability
that a marble chosen at random is not red?

There are 12 marbles that are not red (4 blue + 8 green = 12 marbles). Therefore, 𝑛(𝐸) = 12.
Since the total of marbles is 18, then 𝑛(𝑆) = 18.
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝑆)
𝟏𝟐
𝑷(𝑬) =
𝟏𝟖

Reduce the fraction to its lowest term.

𝟏𝟐 𝟔
𝑷(𝑬) = ÷
𝟏𝟖 𝟔
𝟐
𝑷(𝑬) =
𝟑

𝑷(𝑬) = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟕

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𝑷(𝑬) = 𝟔𝟕%

Random Variable

“A random variable, also called a stochastic variable, is a rule that assigns a numerical value
or characteristic to an outcome of an experiment. It is essentially a variable, usually denoted
as X or any capital letter of the alphabet., because its value is not constant” (Albay 34).

For example, a die is rolled three times and a random variable X is assigned as the number of
times a “3” appears. The random variable X can take on the values 0, 1, 2, and 3 as the
outcome may vary from trial to trial.

“There are two categories of random variable: discrete and continuous random
variables. A discrete random variable takes on the countable number of distinct values, which
are whole numbers such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 … while a continuous random variable assumes an
infinite number of possible values including the decimals between two counting numbers”
(Albay 34).

The values of a discrete random variable are “counts” and those of a continuous random
variable are “measurements”.

Example 1: Discrete vs. Continuous Variables

a. A fair coin tossed 8 times and the number of times X that a tail appears is a discrete
random variable since its possible values may be determined by counting, such as 0, 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

b. A machine ran and the recorded time it starts to experience a glitch Y illustrates a
continuous random variable since the value of the variable may be assigned using
measurement.

The set of all values possible for a given random variable is called the range space. For
example, when two fair coins are tossed and the random variable X is defined as the number
of heads that appear, the range space is the set {0, 1, 2}.

The “0” in the range space stands for the event that there is no tail that will appear. The “1” in
the range space stands for the event that there is 1 tail that will appear. The “2” in the range
space stands for the event that there are 2 tails that will appear.

Identifying the range space allows you to find the possible values of a random variable. The
value of a random variable X at a specific outcome x, is usually denoted as X (xi).

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Example 2: A pair of dice is thrown and the random variable Y is defined such that Y gives the
sum of the two numbers that appear.

Determine the following:

a. range space b. 𝑌(3,2) c. 𝑌(4,6) d. 𝑌(1,3)

Solution:

a. The range space is the set of all possible sums {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}.

b. 𝑌(3,2) = 5 c. 𝑌(4,6) = 10 d. 𝑌(1,3) = 4

Discrete Probability Distribution

“We don’t only determine the value of a random variable but also the probability that the
variable will assume that particular value. If you have a random variable and you know all the
possible values that the variable can take on, you can easily determine the probability that the
random variable will have a particular value” (Albay 36).

For example, consider the random event of tossing four coins and the variable X gives the
number of heads that appear. Your range space, then, will be the set {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}. You
know that there are 16 possible outcomes as follows:

2 possible outcomes – head and tail

4 coins

24 = 16 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

HHHH HTHH THHH TTHH

HHHT HTHT THHT TTHT

HHTH HTTH THTH TTTH

HHTT HTTT THTT TTTT

Random Variable: 𝑿 = {𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒}

Probability of random variable X when it assumes a value of 0:

There is only one possible outcome of not getting head and that is the “TTTT”.

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𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑋 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓

0
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) =
𝑛(𝑆)
𝑛(𝐸) = 1

𝑛(𝑆) =
16
1
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) =
16

𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟎) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟐𝟓

Probability of random variable X when it assumes a value of 1:

There are 4 possible outcomes of getting 1 head and those are the “HTTT, THTT, TTHT,
TTTH”.

𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑋 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓

1
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) =
𝑛(𝑆)
𝑛(𝐸) = 4

𝑛(𝑆) =
16
4
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) =
16
4 4
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = ÷
16 4
1
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) =
4

𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓

Probability of random variable X when it assumes a value of 2:

There are 6 possible outcomes of getting 2 heads and those are the “HHTT, HTHT, HTTH,
THHT, THTH, TTHH”.

𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑋 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 2

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𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) =
𝑛(𝑆)

𝑛(𝐸) = 6

𝑛(𝑆) =
16
6
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) =
16
6 2
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = ÷
16 2
3
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) =
8

𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟐) = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓

Probability of random variable X when it assumes a value of 3:

There are 4 possible outcomes of getting 3 heads and those are the “HHHT, HHTH, HTHH,
THHH”.

𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑋 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓

3
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) =
𝑛(𝑆)
𝑛(𝐸) = 4

𝑛(𝑆) =
16
4
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) =
16
4 4
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = ÷
16 4
1
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) =
4

𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟑) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓

Probability of random variable X when it assumes a value of 4:

There is only one possible outcome of getting 4 heads and that is the “HHHH”.

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𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑋 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓

4
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) =
𝑛(𝑆)
𝑛(𝐸) = 1

𝑛(𝑆) =
16
1
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) =
16

𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟒) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟐𝟓

Number of Heads (X) 0 1 2 3 4

Probability (P(X)) 0.0625 0.25 0.375 0.25 0.0625

This table is called a probability distribution which is also known as probability mass
function.

Probability Distribution

“A probability distribution, also known as probability mass function, is a table that gives a list
of probability values along with their associated value in the range of a discrete random
variable” (Albay 36).

Note from the previous probability mass function that the following properties are observed
given that pi is the individual probabilities for each value in the range of a discrete random
variable.
1. Each probability value ranges from 0 to 1, in symbols, 0 ≤ 𝑝i ≤ 1.
2. The sum of all the individual probabilities in the distribution is equal to 1; thus,
n

𝑝1 + 𝑝2 + 𝑝3 + . . . +𝑝n = Σ 𝑝i = 1
i=1

Also, note that like any other statistical distribution, a probability mass function may be
graphed using a histogram in which the horizontal axis represents the values of the random
variable X and the vertical axis gives the corresponding probabilities, P(X).
For example, shown below is the related histogram of the random variable X (showing a head
after tossing four coins).

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Example 3: A card is drawn from a deck of 20 cards (i.e. all the cards numbered 1 to 5 in a
standard deck) and the random variable W gives the number on the card. Construct the
probability mass function and its corresponding histogram.

Solution: The range space is the set {1,2,3,4,5}. 4 1

𝑃(𝑊 = 1) =
4 = 1 = 0.2
𝑃(𝑊 = 2) = 20 5
4 = 1 = 0.2
𝑃(𝑊 = 3) = 20 5
4 = 1 = 0.2
𝑃(𝑊 = 4) = 20 5
4 = 1 = 0.2
𝑃(𝑊 = 5) = 20 5
= = 0.2
20 5

Number of Heads (W) 1 2 3 4 5

Probability (P(W)) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Histogram:

Reference:
Albay, Eduard M. Statistics and Probability. DIWA LEARNING SYSTEMS INC, 2019.

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