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Probability

The document discusses basic probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, sample spaces, events, mutually exclusive events, unions and intersections of events, and probability calculations. It provides examples like coin flips, die rolls, and more to illustrate these probability topics.

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ehllamaeescobar
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11 views

Probability

The document discusses basic probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, sample spaces, events, mutually exclusive events, unions and intersections of events, and probability calculations. It provides examples like coin flips, die rolls, and more to illustrate these probability topics.

Uploaded by

ehllamaeescobar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

• Probability is simply how likely something is to happen.

• The best example for understanding probability is flipping a coin:

• There are two possible outcomes—heads or tails.

• What’s the probability of the coin landing on Heads?

But before we proceed to answering that question, we need to understand some


terminologies.

Basic Terminologies

Experiment or trial

• is any procedure that can be infinitely repeated and has a well-defined set of
possible outcomes

Outcomes

• results coming from an experiment

Random Experiment

• experiment with more than one possible outcome

• a process for which the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty

Sample Space

• is the set of all possible outcomes in an experiment and denoted by the symbol S.

Sample Point

• is an element of the sample space.


• a single possible observed value in an experiment

Cardinality of S

• denoted by n(S)
• it gives the number of elements of S

Event

• is any subset of a sample space (including the empty set, and the whole set)
Example 1

Experiment: Flipping a coin

Outcomes: Head and Tail

Sample Space: S = {Head, Tail} or simply S= {H, T}

n(S) = 2

H is a sample point in the experiment

T is another sample point

Example 2

Experiment: Rolling once an unbiased die (singular for dice)

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6}

n(S)= 6

4 is a sample point or any other element in A

Let A be the event of an even number

A = {2,4,6} n(A) = 3

B be an event of less than 3 dots

B= {1,2} n(B) = 2

Example 3:

Experiment: Tossing a coin twice

Sample point: HH (or any of the 4 outcomes) Sample space: = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

n(S) = 4

Let A be an event of a double: A = {HH, TT}

n(A) = 2
Mutually Exclusive Events

• cannot happen simultaneously


• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive iff.
A ∩ B = Ø (or they have no common element)

Example 4

Experiment: rolling a die

Let A - the event of getting even number of dots

B – the event of getting odd number of dots

C – the event of getting more than 4 dots.

A = {2,4,6} n(A)=3

B = {1,3,5} n(B)=3

C = {5,6} n(C)=2

A & B are mutually exclusive events

B & C are NOT mutually exclusive

A & C are NOT mutually exclusive

Unions and Intersection of Sets/Events

Union of Events

The union of events A and B, denoted A ∪ B, is the collection of all outcomes that
are elements of one or the other of the sets A and B, or of both of them.

Example 5

In the experiment of rolling a single die, find the union of the events E = the number rolled
is even and T = the number rolled is greater than two.

Solution:

E = {2,4,6} and T = {3,4,5,6}

E ∪ T= {2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Intersection of Events

The intersection of events A and B, denoted A ∩ B, is the collection of all outcomes that
are elements of both of the sets A and B.

Example 6

E = {2,4,6} or T = {3,4,5,6}

E ∩ T = {4, 6}

Complement of an Event

• The complement of event A is denoted by A′ (read as “A prime”).


• A′ consists of all outcomes that are NOT in A.
• A′ = S - A

Probability of an Event

• The probability of an event E is given by

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 (𝐸 ) =
𝑛(𝑆)

• is a measure of the likelihood that an event will occur in a Random Experiment.


• It is a number between 0 and 1, where, loosely speaking, 0 indicates impossibility
and 1 indicates certainty.
• The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur.
• P(S) = 1 and P(Ø) = 0

The Addition Rule for Probability

• Given two events, A and B, the probability that A or B will occur is

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃 (𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)

• When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, A ∩ B = Ø, hence


𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐵 )

The Multiplication Rules

• Used when we calculate probabilities involving one event AND another event
occurring.
• In some cases, the first event happening impacts the probability of the second
event. We call these dependent events.
• In other cases, the first event happening does not impact the probability of the
seconds. We call these independent events.
The probability that both events occur simultaneously

• When 2 events are independent


𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 (𝐵 )
• When 2 events are dependent
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 |𝐴 )
𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴) read as "the probability that B occurs given that A has occurred."

Conditional Probability

• The likelihood of an event occurring based on the occurrence of a previous event


or outcome.
• The conditional probability of B given A, denoted by

𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐴)

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