Probability and Statistics

ENG-PST

Lecture

Dr. Tarik Adnan

Email: [email protected]
Office: Kat.1, # 164
Binomial , Poisson , Normal

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 Binomial Distribution (Binom dağılımı)
• When independent repeated observations are binary in nature (e.g.,
defective or not, survive or not, allergic or not) with value 0 (i.e.
failure) or 1 (i.e. success), the distribution covering this situation is
called the binomial distribution and the probability function is
known. Then the probability distribution of the binomial random
variable X 𝑛𝐶𝑥

𝑏 𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑝 = 𝑓 𝑥 =

* Where, 𝒏 = number of trials or experiments, 𝒙 = number of correct

results, 𝒑 = probability of success on a single trial, 𝒒 = probability of failure
on a single trial 3
 Example
• Let 10 questions exist in an online exam, where the answers are: yes or
no, what is the probability of finding the correct answer to all 10
questions in the marking made without reading the questions?

Solution

𝑓 𝑥 =

𝒏 =10,
𝒙 =10,
𝒑 = 0.5 (the probability of getting yes (i.e. success),
𝒒=1 − 0.5 = 0.5 probability of failure on a single trial

𝑃(𝑋 = 10) = 1 (0.5)10 (0.5)10−10 = 0.00097

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 Example

• The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a shock

test is 3/4. Find the probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 components
tested survive

Solution
• Assuming that the tests are independent and p = 3/4 for each of the
4 tests, we obtain:
𝑛

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Binomial Distribution (Cont.)
Example
• In a grocery store, there are 500 cans of canned food, 80 of which are
spoiled. 5 boxes are randomly taken from this warehouse.

1- What is the probability that two of the cans bought are spoiled?
2- What is the probability that at most one of the cans purchased is spoiled?

Solution 𝑓 𝑥 =

5 80 2 80 5−2 5 2 5−2
1- 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 2
1 − = 2
0.16 0.84 = 0.151
500 500

2- 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 ,
5 0 5−0
5 1 5−1
𝑃 𝑋≤1 = 0.16 0.84 + 0.16 0.84 = 0.8
0 1 6
 Example
• There are 10 machines in a factory, 4 of which are defective. 4 machines
are randomly picked under the condition of replacing the selected one.

1- The probability that two of the purchased machines are broken.

2- What is the probability that at most one of the machines purchased is
defective?
Solution
4 4 2 4 4−2 4 2 4−2
1- 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 2
1 − = 2
0.4 0.6 = 0.3456
10 10

2- 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 ,
4 0 4−0
4 1 4−1
𝑃 𝑋≤1 = 0.4 0.6 + 0.4 0.6 = 0.4752
0 1
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Binomial , Poisson , Normal

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Poisson Distribution (Poisson dağılımı)
• Experiments yielding numerical values of a random variable 𝑋, the
number of outcomes occurring during a given time interval or in a
specified region, are called Poisson experiments.
• The given time interval may be of any length, such as a minute, a
day, a week, a month, or even a year.
• For example, a Poisson experiment can generate observations for the
random variable 𝑋 representing the number of telephone calls
received per hour by an office, the number of days school is closed
due to snow during the winter, or the number of games postponed
due to rain during a baseball season.
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Poisson Distribution (Poisson dağılımı)
• The number X of outcomes occurring during a Poisson experiment is
called a Poisson random variable, and its probability distribution is
called the Poisson distribution.

𝑃 𝑥; 𝜆 =

• We can calculate 𝜆 (the mean of the variable with the Poisson

distribution) by: 𝜆 = 𝑛 ∗ 𝑝 , where 𝑛 is the total number of
outcomes and 𝑝 is their corresponded probabilities 10
 Example

• It has been reported that, on average 4 people lost their lives in a week
due to an epidemic in a city. Calculate the probability that no one (𝑋
= 0) will die from this epidemic in a selected week.

Solution

𝑓 𝑥 =

40 𝑒 −4
𝑓 𝑥 =𝑃 𝑋=0 = = 0.0183
0!

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Example
• There are 5 ambulances dedicated for emergency and can move
independently of each other. If the probability of each ambulance
being ready for service at any time, is 0.85, what is the probability
that at least 3 ambulances will be ready in an emergency?

* Solution

𝜆 = 𝑛 × 𝑝 = 5 × 0.85 = 4.25

𝑥 = 0, 1, 2
2

𝑷 𝑿 ≥ 𝟑 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑋 < 3 = 1 − ෍ 𝑃(𝑥; 𝜆)
𝑥=0
= 1 − [𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 ]
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Example (Cont.)

4.250 × 𝑒 −4.25
𝑃 𝑋=0 = = 0.01426
0!

4.251 × 𝑒 −4.25
𝑃 𝑋=1 = = 0.06062
1!

4.252 × 𝑒 −4.25
𝑃 𝑋=2 = = 0. 12882
2!

𝑷 𝑿 ≥ 𝟑 = 1 − 0.01426 + 0.06062 + 0. 12882 = 0.7963

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 Poisson Distribution (cont.)
Example
• There are 4 industrial engineers working in factories in each city of a
certain region. If it is accepted that the distribution of industrial
engineers in the region conforms to the poisson distribution, in this
region;

1- What is the probability that no industrial engineers will be found?

2- What is the probability of having two industrial engineers?
3- What is the probability of having more than two industrial engineers?

* Solution

𝜆=4
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Example (cont.)

1- The probability that no industrial engineers will be found:

40 × 𝑒 −4
𝑃 𝑋=0 = = 0.0185
0!

2- The probability of having two industrial engineers?

42 × 𝑒 −4
𝑃 𝑋=2 = = 0.148
2!

3- The probability of having more than two industrial engineers?

𝑃 𝑋 > 2 = 1 − [𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 ]
= 1 − 0.0185 + 0.046 + 0.148 = 0.7875
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Example
• In the assembly of a machine consisting of 200 parts, 100 parts were
randomly assembled incorrectly. In a randomly selected piece;
a) Two and
b) What is the probability of having less than two assembly errors?
* Solution
𝜆 = 100 (error) / 200 (piece)
Hence, for each piece, 𝜆 = 0.5 (error/ piece)

a) 0.52 × 𝑒 −0.5
𝑃 𝑋=2 =𝑓 2 = =⋯
2!
1
b) 𝜆𝑥 × 𝑒 −0.5
𝑃 𝑋<2 =෍
𝑥!
𝑥=0 16
 Thank you

Feel free to ask questions in the class or

through Microsoft Team.

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