Mark Scheme

Summer 2023

Pearson Edexcel GCE

In Mathematics (9MA0)

Paper 31 Statistics
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Summer 2023
Publications Code 9MA0_31_2306_MS
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General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners must mark the
first candidate in exactly the same way as they mark the last.
• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must be rewarded for
what they have shown they can do rather than penalised for omissions.
• Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not according to their
perception of where the grade boundaries may lie.
• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark scheme should be
used appropriately.
• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded. Examiners
should always award full marks if deserved, i.e. if the answer matches the
mark scheme. Examiners should also be prepared to award zero marks if the
candidate’s response is not worthy of credit according to the mark scheme.
• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will provide the principles
by which marks will be awarded and exemplification may be limited.
• When examiners are in doubt regarding the application of the mark scheme to
a candidate’s response, the team leader must be consulted.
• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has replaced it
with an alternative response.
 EDEXCEL GCE MATHEMATICS

General Instructions for Marking

1. The total number of marks for the paper is 50.

2. The Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

• M marks: method marks are awarded for ‘knowing a method and attempting to apply it’, unless
otherwise indicated.

• A marks: Accuracy marks can only be awarded if the relevant method (M) marks have been
earned.

• B marks are unconditional accuracy marks (independent of M marks)

• Marks should not be subdivided.

3. Abbreviations

These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the mark schemes.

• bod – benefit of doubt

• ft – follow through

• the symbol will be used for correct ft

• cao – correct answer only

• cso - correct solution only. There must be no errors in this part of the question to obtain this
mark

• isw – ignore subsequent working

• awrt – answers which round to

• SC: special case

• oe – or equivalent (and appropriate)

• dep – dependent

• indep – independent

• dp decimal places

• sf significant figures

•  The answer is printed on the paper

• The second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark

4. For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or materially simplify it, deduct
two from any A or B marks gained, in that part of the question affected.

5. Where a candidate has made multiple responses and indicates which response they wish to
submit, examiners should mark this response.

If there are several attempts at a question which have not been crossed out, examiners should
mark the final answer which is the answer that is the most complete.

6. Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct answer.

7. Mark schemes will firstly show the solution judged to be the most common response
expected from candidates. Where appropriate, alternatives answers are provided in the notes.
If examiners are not sure if an answer is acceptable, they will check the mark scheme to see if
an alternative answer is given for the method used.
 General Principles for Mechanics Marking

(But note that specific mark schemes may sometimes override these general principles)

• Rules for M marks: correct no. of terms; dimensionally correct; all terms that need resolving (i.e. multiplied by
cos or sin) are resolved.
• Omission or extra g in a resolution is an accuracy error not method error.
• Omission of mass from a resolution is a method error.
• Omission of a length from a moments equation is a method error.
• Omission of units or incorrect units is not (usually) counted as an accuracy error.
• DM indicates a dependent method mark i.e. one that can only be awarded if a previous specified method mark
has been awarded.
• Any numerical answer which comes from use of g = 9.8 should be given to 2 or 3 SF.
• Use of g = 9.81 should be penalised once per (complete) question.
N.B. Over-accuracy or under-accuracy of correct answers should only be penalised once per complete question.
However, premature approximation should be penalised every time it occurs.

• Marks must be entered in the same order as they appear on the mark scheme.

• In all cases, if the candidate clearly labels their working under a particular part of a question i.e. (a) or (b) or
(c),……then that working can only score marks for that part of the question.
• Accept column vectors in all cases.
• Misreads – if a misread does not alter the character of a question or materially simplify it, deduct two from any
A or B marks gained, bearing in mind that after a misread, the subsequent A marks affected are treated as A ft
• Mechanics Abbreviations

M(A) Taking moments about A.

N2L Newton’s Second Law (Equation of Motion)

NEL Newton’s Experimental Law (Newton’s Law of Impact)

HL Hooke’s Law

SHM Simple harmonic motion

PCLM Principle of conservation of linear momentum

RHS, LHS Right hand side, left hand side

Qu 1 Scheme Marks AO
(a) [0.13 + 0.25 = ] 0.38 B1 1.1b
(1)
(b) Independence implies:
e.g.  P ( B  C ) = P( B)  P(C )  0.3 = ( 0.3 + 0.05 + 0.25 )  ( 0.3 + p ) M1 1.1b

So p = 0.2 A1 1.1b
[Sum of probabilities = 1 gives] q = 0.07 B1ft 1.1b
(3)
(c) P ( A  B ) 1.1b
[ P ( A | B ) =]
0.13
or M1
P ( B ) (1 − 0.6 ) or ( 0.13 + "0.2"+ "0.07")

13
= or 0.325 A1 1.1b
40
(2)
( 6 marks)
Notes

(a) B1 for 0.38 (or exact equivalent)

If answers are given on Venn Diagram and in the script then the script takes precedence.

(b) M1 for a correct equation in p or P(C) only.

May be implied by an answer of p = 0.2 provided this does not come from incorrect
working.
Condone missing brackets if they get 0.2
Other rules for independence will give simple rearrangements of this equation.

Beware If p = 0.2 comes from incorrect working, we’ve seen p = 0.6

0.3 = 0.2 , score M0A0

A1 for p = 0.2 (or exact equivalent)

B1ft for q = 0.07 (or exact equivalent) ft their p i.e. q = 0.27 – “0.2” where 0 „ p „ 0.27

(c) M1 for a correct ratio of probability expressions or a correct ratio of probabilities

ft their values of p and q (provided both probabilities) or letters p and q
A1 for 0.325 or exact equivalent. Correct answer only will score 2/2
NB on epen this is labelled M1 but treat it as A1
 Qu 2 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Comment in context about either independence or random packing e.g.
“prizes must be placed in packets at random/independently of each other” 3.5b
B1
or about constant probability e.g.
“the probability of a packet containing a prize is constant/ the same/fixed”
(1)
(b)(i) [P(T = 6) = ] 0.17273… awrt 0.173 B1 1.1b

(ii) [P(T < 3) = P(T „ 2 ) = ] 0.061587… awrt 0.0616 B1 1.1b

(2)
(c) [K= no. of boxes with fewer than 3 packets containing a prize]
K ~ B(5, “0.0616”) M1 1.1b
P(K = 2) = 0.031344… in the range [0.0313~0.0314] A1 1.1b
(2)
(d) H0 : p = 1
7 H1 : p 
1
7
B1 2.5
[X = no of packets containing a prize] X~B(110, 17 ) M1 3.3
[P(X „ 9 )] = 0.038292… A1 3.4
[Significant result or reject H 0 ]
A1 2.2b
E.g. there is evidence to support Kamil’s claim
(4)

( 9 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 May use idea of independent events: a suitable reason, in context, covering idea of
random packing or packets filled independently.
Should mention key words/ideas of: prizes in packets or packets in boxes
May use idea of constant probability. Must see key words underlined in scheme.
Idea of probability with “independence” or “not affected by other packets” is B0
B0 for: Idea of only 2 cases. E.g. Packet contains a prize or not
or Idea of a fixed number of trials. E.g. Need a fixed number of packets in each box

(b)(i) B1 for awrt 0.173

(ii) B1 for awrt 0.0616
(c) M1 for sight of B(5, “0.0616”) or C2 ("0.0616") (1 − "0.0616")3 ft their answer to (b)(ii).
5 2

A1 for an answer in the range [0.0313 to 0.0314] Use of 0.0616 gives 0.031356..ans only 2/2
(d) B1 for both hypotheses correct in terms of p or 
M1 for selecting an appropriate model, may be implied by 1st A1 or P(X = 9) = 0.0199(2…)
1st A1 for 0.038 or better or allow 0.04 with sight of P(X „ 9 )
ALT Critical Region. Allow CR of X „ 9 (or X < 10) provided a supporting probability is seen
e.g. A1 for correct CR plus P(X „ 10 ) = 0.0718… (accept 2sf or 1sf if prob statement seen)
2 A1 (dep on 1st A1 but indep of hyp’s) for a suitable conclusion in context that suggests
nd

support for (Kamil’s ) claim or states that there is evidence that proportion
/probability/chance of packets containing a prize is less than 17
Do not award 2nd A1 for contradictory statements e.g. “not significant” so “supports claim”
Normal  110 660 
Sight of N  , or awrt 13.5  or probability of 0.045(20..) or 0.033(66..) scores M1
 
 7 49 
Qu 3 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Need to replace tr with a numerical value M1 1.2
Value of tr is between 0 and 0.05 suggest using e.g 0.025 , 0 or value „ 0.05 A1 1.1b
(2)
(b)(i)  389.3 ~ 390.8  195
x =  = 2.119… awrt 2.12 allow or 2 11
92 B1 1.1b
 184  92
(ii) (awrt)4336 (awrt)4336
 = − " x 2 " or allow  2 =  − " x 2 " or awrt 19.1
M1 1.1b
184 184
= 4.367… awrt 4.37 A1 1.1b
(3)

(c)(i) Only covers May~Oct (so not a suitable sample) B1 1.1b

(ii) e.g. Winter months are missing when we’d expect more rain
B1 2.4
so expect estimate in (b)(i) to be an underestimate (oe)
(2)

( 7 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for recognising that tr must be replaced (oe) with a numerical value
The following examples would score M0: The tr values are worth 0 so ignore (not replacing)
or must remove outliers or fill gaps in table or make widths the same or need to find mid-points
A1 for using a suitable value: e.g. 0.025 (or allow 0) i.e. any value in [0, 0.05]
(these give  x = 390 (3sf), use of 0.05 gives 390.8, use of 0 gives 389.3 allow in (b)(i))

(b)(i) B1 for awrt 2.12 or allow simplified fraction or mixed number. B0 for 184
390

(ii) M1 for a correct expression for standard deviation or variance. Allow  x 2 = awrt 4336
Ignore their label  or  2 Can ft their mean

A1 for awrt 4.37 [Use of s gives 4.3791… so for correct use seen allow awrt 4.38]

(awrt)4336
SC Using n = 155 Allow M1 for expression [ =] − " x 2 " = 21.64... or 4.65…
155

Part (c) can effectively be marked together.

(c)(i) B1 for a comment mentioning that data is just from May~Oct (so not representative of the
whole year).
Just saying “only 184 days so not representative” is B0, must mention May ~ Oct

(ii) B1 for comment that missing/winter months expected to have more rain (oe) and
“underestimate”(oe)
We are looking for all 3 of these ideas here:
1. A statement or implication that missing data is from winter or different months.
2. A suggestion about the rainfall in these months (probably more rain).
3. A statement about the impact on the estimate in (b)(i) equivalent to saying it would be
an underestimate or the (actual) mean will be higher.
SC If you see “Leeming or N or NE has less rain in winter months” – please send to review
Qu 4 Scheme Marks AO
(a) [Let N = height from region A; P(N > 180) = ] 0.24937… awrt 0.249 B1 1.1b
(1)
(b) H0 :  = 175.4 H1 :   175.4 B1 2.5
 6.82 
 Allow  = awrt 0.889
2
[S = height from region B] S ~ N 175.4, M1 3.3
 52 
[P( S > 177.2)] = 0.02814… A1 3.4
[0.028… > 0.025, Not sig, do not reject H 0 ]
A1 2.2b
Insufficient evidence to support student’s claim
(4)

(c) [p-value = 2  0.02814... =] 0.05628…

B1ft 1.2
in range 0.056~0.06 or 5.6(%)~6(%)
(1)

( 6 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for awrt 0.249

(b) B1 for both hypotheses correct in terms of  (See below for one-tail test)
M1 for selecting the correct model, may be implied by standardisation using correct values or
may be implied by a correct value in 1st A1
e.g.(Prob =) 0.028 or awrt 0.972, (Z =) 1.9(08..) (CV=) 177.25
Condone use of S (or any other letter) instead of S
 6.82 
Condone use of S ~ N 177.2,  but this will lose 2 A mark
nd

 52 
1st A1 for probability of awrt 0.028 (allow 0.03 if P( S > 177.2) is seen)
Condone 1 – 0.02814 … = 0.9718…(awrt 0..972) only if clearly compared with 0.975
ALT Allow Z = 1.9(088…) and comparison with 1.96 (or better: calc gives 1.95996…)
or CR of  S  … 177.248…(awrt 177.25) Allow  S   >177.248…(awrt 177.25)
Implied by diagram or correct interpretation of inequality with their CV
(Ignore any attempt at a lower CR for S )
2 A1 (dep on 1st A1 and use of correct model. Use of N(177.2, …) scores A0)
nd

for a conclusion using context: e.g. does not support student’s claim
or e.g. insufficient evidence of a difference in heights
Do not allow 2nd A mark for contradictory statements
e.g. “significant” so “no support for claim”

(c) B1ft for answer in range 0.056~0.06 or 5.6%~6% (Ranges are inclusive, condone missing %)
(can ft their probability, provided < 0.5, from part (b) but not 0.025 leading to 5%)

NB One-tail test [Max of 3/5 for (b) and (c)]

In (b) B0 (hypotheses) M1(model as above) 1st A1[for probability or Z compared with 1.6449 or
CR  S  … or > 176.95… (awrt 177)] 2nd A1 for conclusion in context that supports claim or
“heights of men from B is different from/greater than from A”
In (c) B0
Qu 5 Scheme Marks AO
(a) k k
P(S  {X = 50}) = P(S  {X = 80})[= a constant, V]  b  = c
50 80
M1 3.1a
k V k V
May see: = and = (condone any letter for V even S)
50 b 80 c
8
So c= b * A1cso* 1.1b
5
(2)
(b) 2 5 M1 2.1
d = 2b or a = b or c = 4a or d = 5a or d = c A1 3.3
5 4

2 8
b + b + b + 2b = 1 M1 2.1
5 5
1
 5b = 1 so b = (o.e.) A1 1.1b
5
2 1 8 2
a= b= c= d= A1 3.2a
25 5 25 5
(5)
(c) [Experiment suggests for Nav] P(S | {X = 100}) = 0.3  k = 30
V
or 0.3 =  V = 0.12
0.4
B1 2.4
So model won’t work since
30 0.12
P(S | X = 20) = or and so would be greater than 1
20 0.08
(1)
(8 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for use of P(S | X = x)  P(X = x) for x = 50 and x = 80 (Must see k or their V)
Any expression or equation MUST be based on the probability statements in qu.
* A1cso for rearranging to required result, no incorrect work seen, condone poor notation
NB 50
Use of values e.g. b = to prove (a) is M0A0 but scores 2nd M1A1 in (b)
20 + 50 + 80 + 100

Marks for (b) may be awarded for work seen in (a)

(b) 1st M1 for at least one other relationship (either probability the subject) from the list.
1st A1 for a second different relationship (either probability the subject) from the list.
ak bk ck dk
or Allow for: = = = for 1st M1 1st A1
20 50 80 100
2nd M1 for using or stating sum of prob’s = 1 May be implied by one correct probability.
2nd A1 for one correct probability e.g. b = 15 or exact equivalent such as 0.2
3rd A1 for all correct probabilities. Allow exact equivalents e.g. c = 0.32
Sight of correct distribution or list of probs with no obvious incorrect working is 5/5

(c) B1 for deducing k = 30 and giving a suitable example to show model breaks down
Qu 6 Scheme Marks AO
(a) 2  4.2 , 4  4 , 4  3.5 ,10 1 (= 8.4 + 16 + 14 + 10 = 48.4) M1 1.1b
 48.4  121
[So P(10 < T < 30) = ]  = = 0.53777... 0.53~0.54 (2sf OK) A1 1.1b
 90  225
(2)
(b) (Not suitable as) data is not symmetric or is skew (normal is symmetric) B1 2.4
(“Even” distribution or a diagram on its own is not enough so B0) (1)

 xe ( dx ) =  xd( − e
(c) −x −x M1 2.1
)
(
=  − xe− x  −  −e− x ) ( dx ) (+c) A1 1.1b
n n

 xe ( dx ) = − xe
−x −x −x
( )
− e  = − ne − n − e − n −  − ( 0 ) − 1 dM1 1.1b
0 0

= 1 − ( n + 1)e − n (*) A1cso* 1.1b

(4)
(d) (n)

 xe
−x
Require area = 90 i.e. k dx = 90 (ignore limits) M1 3.1a
(0)

Using the result in part (c) with n = 4 gives k 1 − 5e−4  = 90 M1 2.1
( k =) 99(.0729…) (*) A1cso* 1.1b
(3)
(e)(i) [P(10 < T < 30) = ] 0.64863… awrt 0.649 B1 1.1b
(1)
(ii) [No. of patients =] ( 99 ) (1 − 4e−3 ) − (1 − 2e−1 )  (= 53.1..) M1 3.4
0.5366...  99 A1
Prob = = 0.59027... [or 0.5907...] = awrt 0.590 or 0.591 3.2a
90 (2)
(f) eg Patients might stay longer than 40 hours B1 3.5b
(Can ignore other comments unless clearly contradictory.) (1)
( 14 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for an attempt to find the number between 10 and 30 ( 2 correct products or 48 or 48.4 seen)
A1 for 2sf answer in [0.53 ~ 0.54] NB use of 48 gives 0.5333… [Correct ans implies 2/2]
(b) B1 for a comment suggesting not suitable based on (lack of) symmetry or “not bell shaped”

(c) 1st M1 for attempting integration by parts in right direction. Must have u = x and v =  e− x
1st A1 for a correct first step, correct first integration and expression for second integral
2nd dM1 (dep on 1st M1) for all integration attempted and some use of at least one limit
* 2nd A1 for cso with no incorrect working seen. Minimum is correct int and use of limits seen.
(d) 1st M1 for realising need area under the curve (implied by the integral) = 90
2nd M1 for use of (c) with n = 4 and set = 90 May be implied by sight of 99.07… or better
* A1cso for k = 99 or awrt 99.1
NB Allow use of k = 99 and show area = awrt 89.9 with a conclusion to score 3/3
(e)(i) B1 for awrt 0.649
(ii) M1 for use of (c) with n = 1 and n = 3 Don’t need the 99. Implied by sight of awrt 0.54
A1 for awrt 0.590 or awrt 0.591 Allow 0.59 from correct working seen.
(f) B1 eg for comment, in context, about the upper limit for time (t or x)(time/hour may be implied)
 Notes on Question 5

The question essentially uses the definition of P(A | B) given in the formula booklet.

P ( S   X = x)
In particular P ( S |  X = x) = 1
P ( X = x)

The first "blob" tells us that P ( S |  X = x) =

k
where k is a constant.
x

( ) ( )
The second “blob” tells us that P S   X = x is the same for all x so P S   X = x = V where V is a
constant.

k V
Using these results in 1 gives = 2
x P( X = x)

k
Line 1 of MS for part (a) uses V = P ( X = x )  for x = 50 and x = 80
x

Line 2 of MS for part (a) uses 2 with x = 50 and x = 80

Other implications

V
Equation 1 can be rearranged to give P ( X = x ) = x  3
k

V V 1
So when a + b + c + d = 1 is used this gives 1 = ( 20 + 50 + 80 + 100 ) or = 4
k k 250

In particular if we use this relationship in 3 the probabilities a, b, c and d can simply be written
50
down for example b = as given in the NB in the notes on the MS.
250

The point is that k and V will vary according to equation 4 but as part (c) shows there are some
restrictions on the values k, and therefore V, can take.

k k
Since is a probability then, ignoring the trivial cases*, 0   1 and the “restricting” value of x is
x x
20 2
clearly x = 20 so 0  k  20 and from 4 we get 0  V  = =a
250 25

So the restrictions on k and on V are given by the shortest distance and its associated probability.

* k = 0 would say Tisam can never get the ball in the cup no matter what the distance.

k = 20 says she always gets the ball in the cup for any distance.
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