Week 13
Week 13
~SEEKING WISDOM
DUBAI CONNECTION
Last summer, Marriott International, which operates hotels across 139 countries, agreed to start a 350-room hotel
on Al Marjan Island, one of the four islands of Ras Al Khaimah, a city in the United Arab Emirates.
Set to open in 2026, under Marriott’s Le Méridien brand, the property is being developed by a company called
Three Musketeers Hospitality. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of UAE-based Plus Holding Ltd.
Surendra Bagri, Ajay Halwasiya and Hari Shankar Tibrewala are the three founders of this hospitality company.
SURENDRA BAGRI
JE Impex DMCC [No. 3], which was set up in April 2016, calls itself a global cashew importer and exporter. It
also buys and sells furniture and machine spare parts. But its business of owning and selling shares is what sets it
apart. Its owner is Surendra Bagri, one of the co-founders of Three Musketeers Hospitality.
AJAY HALWASIYA
Ajay Halwasiya, the third co-founder of Three Musketeers Hospitality, is the grandson of Madan Mohan
Halwasiya, who founded the Kolkata-based Universal-Halwasiya Group.Ajay’s younger brother is Aditya
Halwasiya, managing director of Cupid Ltd, a contraceptive maker.
CONTROL OF BLB
BLB Ltd is a Kolkata-based firm that buys and sells shares. Sometime during January-March last year, Tano
Investment Opportunities Fund made its first appearance on BLB’s cap table—with an 8.65% stake in the
company.
Who owns this fund is not clear as disclosures made to the stock exchanges by two public companies point to two
owners. Tano Investment has invested in Gensol Engineering Ltd, an Ahmedabad-based firm that installs ground-
mounted and rooftop solar panels. Gensol, in a filing dated 9 February, mentions Hari Tibrewala as the beneficiary
owner of Tano Investment.
But Cellecor Gadgets Ltd, a Delhi-based electronic goods company in which Tano has invested, says in a 12 March
disclosure to the exchanges that Ashwanee Ramsurrun,
a Mauritius-based lawyer, is the beneficiary owner of the
fund.
Tano Investment Opportunities Fund is registered in the
Mauritius. OFS Finserv Services Ltd, which counts
Ramsurrun as the cofounder, manages Tano Investment,
according to registration documents Tano filed with the
Mauritius Financial Services regulator.
“The surprising thing is why would a person running an obscure fund look to buy a company?" asked a Delhi-
based executive at an alternate investment fund, declining to be identified. “Running a listed company comes with
more scrutiny from the regulator than merely running a fund."
THE SAME FACES
BLB may not have changed hands for now. But over the last 15 months at least five small-cap firms, valued at between ₹400 crore and ₹3,000 crore, have raised capital after issuing shares to a group
of investors.
These companies are Specialty Restaurants Ltd, which runs the Oh! Calcutta and Mainland China restaurants; agro-processing firm BCL Industries Ltd; Ok Play India Ltd, which makes plastic-
moulded toys; engineering firm Balu Forge Industries; and Gensol Engineering Ltd.
All these firms issued shares to some investors, a few of whom are now being probed by ED.
There is nothing wrong with a company raising capital through convertible warrants. These financial instruments allow investors to buy equity in a company or allow a company to issue shares to
investors, enabling swift capital-raising.
So what was common in the above transactions? The same faces—Tibrewala, Bagri, Kumar, and Ajay Halwasiya and family—surface again and again.
Also, the share price of companies that issued preferential shares jumped.
Sample this. Speciality Restaurants, in December 2022, made a preferential allotment of shares. The group of investors included Tibrewala and Bagri. Ekta Halwasiya, the mother of Ajay and Aditya
Halwasiya, also bought shares. Finally, Kumar, who owns Caterfield Global, too subscribed.
Gensol’s preferential share allotment saw participation from both Tibrewala and Bagri, while Balu Forge Industries’ preferential issue of equity saw both Tibrewala and Kumar investing in the shares.
The share price of many of these companies had already run up before the preferential allotment. Shares of Balu Forge Industries, for instance, had almost doubled in the 12 months to 21 June 2023,
when its board agreed to raise money from the preferential allotment. Post the allotment, the share price further jumped 40% between 22 June and 7 March this year.
The share price of many of these companies had already run up before the preferential allotment.
To be sure, preferential allotment by these six small-cap firms was not limited to only these entities or individuals.
Gensol Engineering raised ₹900 crore through a preferential share allotment to 162 investors, who would own a 21.6% stake in the company. Speciality Restaurants raised ₹127.23 crore by issuing
shares to two dozen investors. Balu Industries raised ₹158.5 crore from 14 investors. BCL Industries raised ₹210 from preferential allotment to 28 public investors.
“Anjan Chatterjee (founder of Speciality Restaurants) is a dear friend and the deal was formulated by Prabhudas Lilladher Investment Banking and preferential warrants were allotted to a Halwasiya
family member,"
“BCL Industries deal was brought to Aditya by a reputed (investor relations) and brokerage firm and investment was done on the basis of its promising business and future prospects," he added.
“Having investments along with multiple other investors (30-60+ investors) in certain preferential allotments does not mean the Halwasiya family has business dealings with Hari Tibrewala if one or
two of Hari’s connected entities are also listed as allottees in a specific deal," Ajay Halwasiya further said.
“All Indian investments are done from proprietary funds of the Halwasiya family from India and the Halwasiya family does not remit funds abroad into any foreign companies," he clarified.
“Zenith (fund owned by Hari Tibrewala), a passive shareholder since September 2022, holds less than 1.5% in Gensol and holds neither decision-making rights nor any involvement
in the business and operational strategies of the company,"
Gensol Engineering told the exchanges on 13 March. “The company does not exercise control over or have access to its shareholders’ business dealings or private transactions,"
it further added.
“We have already submitted our clarification on the subject matter on NSE & BSE on 13/03/2024, that neither the company nor its promoters have any personal association
with any of the alleged entities including M/s. JE Impex DMCC or its promoters except that it has been allotted 10,00,000 equity shares on preferential basis by the company in
January 2023, which is not even 2% of the total allotments," ~BCL.
“So far, we have not received any query from ED or Sebi about the investments made by M/s. JE Impex DMCC in the company," BCL stated in its clarification, adding that
the company had completed all due diligence required by Sebi.
INSTITUTIONAL YES. QUANTUM LOST
Four prominent proxy advisory firms—InGovern, SES, IiAS and ISS-- have favoured the Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund and Quantum ELSS Tax Saver Fund owns shares in
scheme of arrangement that proposed delisting of equity shares of ICICI Securities by ICICI Bank and ICICI Securities. The fund house estimates that the merger will result in a net loss
issuing equity shares of its parent, ICICI Bank, to the shareholders of ICICI Securities. By of at least Rs 6.08 crore to its unitholders.
virtue of the delisting, ICICI Securities will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI
“It is our opinion that the recent proposal by ICICI Bank to merge with ISEC (ICICI Bank owns
Bank. a 75 percent equity stake in ISEC) is detrimental to the interests of our unitholders as we believe
it undervalues ISEC and gives ICICI Bank access to the full business of ISEC at a less than the
According to InGovern, over a period of six months prior to the date of announcement of fair market price. Even if the company was valued at the lowest PE (Price to Earnings) multiple
delisting i.e. from December 28, 2022 to June 28, 2023, the average ratio of VWAP reflected in its peer set (20.4 times for Angel One) the merger offer would have been at least 30
(Volume-Weighted Average Price) of ICICI Securities stock price to the VWAP of ICICI percent higher. The current proposed merger ratio transfers at a minimum Rs 1,780 crore to
Bank stock price is 0.54. The proposed swap ratio of 0.67 represents a premium of 24.07% ICICI Bank shareholders from ISEC minority shareholders,” the fund house said
to this. The VWAP ratio during the period from June 28, 2023 to March 9, 2024 is 0.70
which closely mirrors the swap ratio offered by the company to its shareholders, said the As per the fund house, had a reverse merger swap ratio set on the day of its listing, the ratio would
InGovern report. have been set at 1.65 ICICI Bank shares for every 1 share of ICICI securities (a 146 percent
premium to the current offer) based on the closing price for both the companies. Further, had the
The InGovern report also added that the broking business is inherently volatile. By being ISEC IPO price been used as a benchmark, then the share swap ratio would have been 1.9 shares
offered shares of the comparatively stable shareholding in the parent company, of ICICI Bank for every 1 share of ICICI securities (a 183 percent premium to the current offer)
shareholders of ICICI Securities gain from enhanced liquidity and better price discovery. on the day of its listing.
The combined entity with the strategic imperative of combining wealth management, Quantum Mutual Fund estimates that the current swap ratio values ICICI securities at a 30-77
broking services with banking services will fuel growth and profitability, the InGovern percent discount to its other listed peers based on consensus earnings forecast for the fiscal year
report added. ending March 2024. Based on the above to protect the interests of its unitholders, Quantum Mutual
Fund has decided to vote against the resolution.
67 / 100
PARANOID MANAGEMENT NEEDS SCREENSHOT OF VOTE
1. ICICI Securities shareholders started receiving calls in February (I 4. If that was not enough, ICICI Bank branch managers and relationship
received on February 13) from some company named "Trustwell managers are asking for a screenshot confirmation that the vote was cast.
Management Consulting". It called ICICI Securities shareholders on I got multiple calls and requests from both the branch manager and
the pretext of "contact update" but actually it was to inform them relationship manager asking for confirmation on my voting
about benefits of delisting. Voting dates for ICICI Securities delisting
resolution were not even announced at that point. 5. And if that wasn't enough, we are hearing reports of branch managers
actually visiting homes of shareholders to get their voting confirmation.
2. After the voting period began on March 22, the same company has Quite unbelievable!
been calling all shareholders to cast their vote. The same data privacy
breach again
‘RM asked me to either vote in the bank's favour or sell my
3. ICICI Bank seems to have access to entire database of ICICI shares’.
Securities shareholders, irrespective of the broker account in which
ICICI Securities shares are held. ~A User on X
Late last year, ICICI Securities responded to questions raised by Unifi Capital, a Chennai-based portfolio management services Before the resolution was passed, ICICI
firm, and a Bengaluru-based retail investor, Soarabh Gupta. Gupta is a relative of Manu Rishi Gupta, who runs a Bengaluru- Bank faced significant backlash from
based investment fund, MRG Capital, who too has voiced his unhappiness over the transaction. minority shareholders. Several of them took
to the social media platform X and said the
Both Unifi Capital and Gupta had written to the nine-member board of ICICI Securities, expressing their displeasure at the bank's executives had been calling ICICI
proposed transaction. Finverse Ventures’ Darak told Mint that investors are paying a premium on the shares of ICICI Securities Securities' stakeholders to influence their
because they believe they are worth more than the price dictated by the original 100:67 swap ratio, and that this suggests that voting.
the market does not expect the transaction to receive investor support.
The stock exchanges even wrote to ICICI
“The stock price has run up significantly in the past year; so, minority investors have to consider whether the business prospects of ISEC Securities and ICICI Bank to provide a
(ICICI Securities) are better than the prospects of a diversified portfolio of businesses at ICICI,” Subramanian of InGovern said. clarification on the same.
THE SITUATION TODAY LESSONS FROM CHINA
Copper is a critical metal, and its consumption According to the International Copper Study Group, global copper consumption rose by 5% to 27.1 million tonnes (mt) in 2023, against
is closely associated with economic growth. Its production of 27mt. China accounted for 68% of the world’s copper consumption in 2023, at 18.5mt, registering a 9% increase over the previous
importance has risen in recent years with the year. Its own production of refined copper stood at 13mt, while imports accounted for the rest.
focus shifting to renewable energy, electric
vehicles (EVs)—electric cars use four times Copper consumption in the US was flat while it contracted in Europe. Global demand grew marginally, thanks to strong consumption in China.
more copper than those powered by petrol or That came as a surprise as the Chinese economy as a whole is facing massive headwinds. Industrial output is down as both domestic and export
diesel—and related infrastructure demand have fallen. The country’s property sector is in the doldrums. Demand for copper came primarily from EV and renewable energy.
development. “Of the 13.5 million electric cars sold globally in 2023, 9.5 million were in China. EVs account for 40% of all car sales there,” Sundeep Daga,
founder & chief executive officer (CEO), Regsus Consulting, a metal price risk management advisory firm, said.
According to Government of India data, the The EV sector alone consumed in excess of a million tonnes of copper in the last year.
country’s per capita copper consumption, at
0.6kg, pales in comparison with the world The other big source of demand was the renewables sector. Realizing that a sharp increase in the sale of EVs will call for enhanced electricity
average of 3.2kg. If India has to become a demand, China has been ramping up its renewable energy capacity. In 2023 alone, it added renewable capacity of 160 giga watts (GW), mostly
developed nation by 2047, it needs to secure its in western China, where land was available and cheap. Long transmission lines were laid to evacuate the electricity generated to meet the
copper supply. demand on the east coast.
India’s copper consumption has been rising
sharply. In 2022-23, it stood at 986,000 tonnes, “There is a lesson for us to learn from China,” said Daga. Anticipating demand for copper from its EV and renewable energy drive, policymakers
growing 23% over the previous year. In the there ensured creation of smelting capacity. In 2023, the country added 2mt—four times India’s capacity—in just one year.
first nine months of this year, demand has That’s not all. “China’s smelting capacity will increase by 25% in 2024 and 15% in 2025, if one looks at the pipeline of smelting projects,” he
already touched 852,000 tonnes. “This demand said. They are well prepared, and it is high time India starts planning similarly, he added.
is primarily driven by the government’s
NEO-COPPER AGE
infrastructure spending,” said Priyush
Ruparelia, vice-president and co-group head—
corporate ratings, at Icra, a rating agency.
The central government’s capex, which was
just ₹4.12 trillion in 2020-21, amounting to
2.1% of GDP, has risen to ₹10 trillion in 2023- The industrial metal’s economic importance has risen in recent years because of the shift to renewable energy and EVs
24 (3.4% of GDP).
The government has also been pushing
affordable housing through programmes such
as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY).
A BIGGER PROBLEM
Buildings and construction account for 22% of
copper demand. Added to this is demand from The self-sufficiency, he clarified, should not just be in refined copper. India’s bigger problem is copper
the consumer durables and automotive sector. ore. According to the ministry of mines, government of India, copper ore production in the country is
Icra expects consumption in 2023-24 and estimated at 4mt, which is equivalent to just 4% of the country’s refined copper consumption. State-
2024-25 to grow by 11%. owned Hindustan Copper is the only producer of copper ore in the country. Hindalco imports copper
concentrate and converts it into refined copper.
“The copper business is enjoying some very
good demand. The electrification sector is Chile and Peru account for 40% of global copper ore output. China has a 9% share followed by the
quite strong. Copper is going to be good going US (7%). India’s established copper ore reserves are low.
forward,” said Satish Pai, managing director of “It is high time India invests in prospecting for copper ore,” said Daga. Without access to ore, there is
Hindalco Industries Ltd, during the company’s no self-sufficiency or control over prices.
earnings call in February. His words are already ringing true. In the last fortnight, international copper prices have shot up from
around $8,300 per tonne to $9,066 before dropping to $8,900 levels due to the acute shortage of ore
Hindalco is one of India’s biggest metals after the closure of a mine in Panama.
manufacturing company and its copper
division, Birla Copper, operates one of the “This has reduced capacity utilization at the smelters. Competition for the ore has reduced the smelting
largest single-location copper smelters in the margins from $90 per tonne levels to $10,” said Icra’s Ruparelia. Many smelters across the world are
world. Hindalco is the only major refined shutting down operations as the process of smelting is unviable at the moment.
copper producer in the country today, with a The government of India has taken the first step to find more reserves. The Mines and Minerals
capacity of about 500,000 tonnes. (Development and Regulation) Act, 2023, has introduced an exploration license that encourages
The public sector Hindustan Copper produces private sector participation in prospecting for 30 critical minerals, including copper ore. This move is
another 60,000 tonnes. The rest of the demand expected to bring in advanced technology, expertise and capital to prospect for copper ore. The
is met through imports of refined copper, ministry of mines expects availability of ore to increase from 4mt to 12.2mt by 2028-29.
copper scrap and value-added products.
Experts also said that the government and the private sector must work together to strike strategic
The copper ore is converted into a copper supply deals with countries that have large ore deposits. They point out that China has already signed
concentrate which is then smelted into refined deals in Africa. Many of these countries have also woken up to the benefit their economy gets by
copper. The refined copper can then be used to adding value to the ore locally rather than just exporting it. This calls for a different approach. India
make value-added products such as copper Inc. should look at investing in ore processing facilities in these nations and shipping the concentrate
rods and wires. to feed smelters in India, said experts.
As per government data, in 2022-23, copper The writing on the wall is clear. If India wants to expand its economy rapidly, it needs to move quickly to fix its copper supply. History is
imports rose by about 20% in value terms to replete with such examples: Europe in the 1700s, the US in the 1900s, Japan in the 1960s and China in the 2000s ensured self-sufficiency in
₹27,131 crore from ₹21,985 crore the year copper as their economies grew at a rapid pace. India cannot become a developed nation any other way.
before. This will change soon .
Boeing said Monday that Calhoun will step aside by the end of the year, though he is expected to leave as soon as his replacement is found.
Calhoun’s biggest ally on the board, Chairman Larry Kellner, is also stepping down, and the top executive for the commercial aircraft unit was
replaced on Monday.
Airline executives and government officials said they welcomed the shake-up. By setting Calhoun’s exit date at the end of the year, Boeing gave
itself ample time to find a successor who the board hopes could instill confidence in the company internally and externally. And if other
controversies surface at Boeing in the coming months, Calhoun can take the blame for them instead of the new CEO, executive advisers said.
A long transition could slow turnaround efforts: Outgoing CEOs rarely make bold strategy moves, and uncertainty at the top can ripple through a
company, paralyzing decision-making and weighing on employees and other executives.
“The faster they get someone in, the better,” said Bill George, former chairman and CEO of Medtronic, who has co-written case studies on Boeing’s
challenges. “The new CEO is going to have a massive job.”
While 19 companies have already received approval from Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise nearly ₹25,000 crore in the upcoming fiscal, an additional 37 companies are waiting
for Sebi approval to raise about ₹45,000 crore. Out of these, nine are NATCs (new-age technology companies) aiming to raise roughly ₹21,000 crore.
“The strong performance in the secondary market suggests continued activity in the primary market (IPOs) for the next few quarters. However, investor focus will shift towards a company’s past
earnings performance, especially for those listed in the last two years. While overall IPO subscription might remain high, investors will become more selective, placing greater emphasis on individual
company performance,” Kranthi Bathini, director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities, told Mint.
Several companies have already secured Sebi approval for their offerings. These include Ebixcash Ltd (₹6,000 crore), Go Digit General Insurance Ltd (₹3,500 crore), Indegene Ltd (₹3,200 crore),
and Tata Play Ltd (₹2,500 crore).
“FY25 is shaping up to be another stellar year for IPOs," Nirav R. Karkera, head of research, Fisdom, said. Several factors are contributing to this expectation. Firstly, major players which had
shelved their IPO plans earlier, are now expected to launch their offerings. Secondly, with the general elections going to be out of the way soon, the political certainty will lend to investor confidence.
“Expected reversal in the global and domestic rate environment can be expected to translate into incremental liquidity; majority of which can be expected to percolate into capital markets,” he said.
“With the resurgence of a risk-on environment and conducive macros we expect domestic and foreign appetite for primary markets to grow significantly and companies with fundraising objectives
to utilise such an environment to advantage through expedited listing,” he added.
THE OLD AND WISE
NEXT SOMETHING
Peter Lynch is one of the most When people tout a stock as the next IBM, it often marks the end of prosperity not only for the imitator, but also for the original.
successful and well-known
investors of all time. Lynch is the DI’WORSE’IFICATIONS
legendary former manager of the Instead of buybacks / dividends, a dedicated diworseifier seeks purchases that are a) overpriced, b) beyond the realm of understanding.
Magellan Fund at the major o Every second decade, companies switch between diworseification and restructuring
investment brokerage Fidelity. o 1960’s was the greatest decade for diworseification, which ended in the crash of 1973/74
He took over the fund in 1977 at o Synergy (2+2=5): theory of putting together related businesses and making the whole thing work, which doesn’t always happen. A vigorous
age 33 and ran it for 13 years. buyback is the purest synergy of all.
His success allowed him to retire
in 1990 at age 46. WHISPER STOCKS
Long shot companies with whiz bang stories.
His investment style has been o Are often on the brink of solving the latest national problem with a solution that’s: a) very imaginative, or, b) impressively complicated.
described as adaptive to the o The great story has no substance, but it relieves the investor of the burden of checking the financials.
prevailing economic o If prospects are so phenomenal, then it will be a fine investment next year as well. Wait till the company has established a record.
environment at the time, but
Lynch always stressed that you BEWARE THE MIDDLEMAN
should be able to understand Company sells large % of sales (20-50%) to a single customer.
what you own. Short of order cancellation, that customer has enormous leverage in getting cuts and concessions that reduce profits.
In this context, “X” factor can be attricuted to market’s extension of expectations for above-cost-of-capital returns. The length and relative change of CAP can have a substantial impact on the value of a business and
the market overall.
Remarkably, in spite of CAP’s importance in the analytical process — it remains one of the most neglected components of valuation. This lack of focus appears attributable to two main factors.
First, the vast majority of market participants attempt to understand valuation and subsequent stock price changes using an accounting-based formula, which generally defines value as a price/earnings multiple times
earnings. Thus CAP is rarely explicitly addressed, even though most empirical evidence suggests that the stock market deems cash flow to be more important than earnings, holds true to the risk/reward relationship
over time, and recognizes cash flows many years into the future.
Second, most companies use a forecast period for strategic planning purposes (usually three to five years) that is substantially different from their CAP. As a result, investor communication is geared more toward
internal company-based expectations rather than external market-based expectations.
THEORETICAL DECAY
summarized as follows:
NOPAT I(R−WACC)CAP
Value = +
As time goes on, competitive forces drive returns to a level equal to the cost of capital. WACC +(WACC) (1+WACC)
Graphically, CAP can be represented by the accompanying two figures. In Figure 1, the Y axis where
represents expected return spread (return on invested capital less the cost of capital) while the X NOPAT = net operating profit after tax
WACC = weighted average cost of capital
axis is time. I = annualized new investment in working and fixed capital
The shaded area under the curve, therefore, is what the market is trying to determine, and is the R = rate of return on invested capital
CAP = competitive advantage period
basis for P/E ratios, cash flow multiples and various rate of return measures. Figure 1 presents the
Rearranged, the formula reads,
theoretical decay in excess returns as competitors are drawn into the industry.
(Value∗WACC−NOPAT)(1+WACC)
CAP =
But things get interesting here… I(R−WACC)
Figure 2, on the other hand, is how we believe the market actually works. Although value creation A company’s CAP is determined by a multitude of
may occur beyond the CAP, as shown in this figure, risk-averse investors are only willing to factors, both internal and external. On a company
specific basis, considerations such as industry
go so far into the future. structure, the company’s competitive position within
that industry, and management strategies define the
length of CAP. Important external factors include
It appears that Warren Buffett has used this concept for years in his investment process. He buys businesses Second is the rate of industry change. High returns
in a rapidly changing sector (e.g., technology) are
with “high returns on capital” (returns in excess of the cost of capital) that have “deep and wide moats”
unlikely to be valued as generously as high returns in
(sustainable CAPs) and holds them “forever” (hoping that the CAPs stay constant). Although this technique seems fairly straightforward, finding a more prosaic industry (e.g., beverages).
businesses with enduring CAPs is not simple.
The final driver is barriers to entry. High barriers to
INCORPORATION OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE PERIOD entry or in some businesses, “lock-in” and increasing
returns are central to appreciating the sustainability of
In his 1992 letter to shareholders, Buffett points out that stocks with low price-to-book ratios, low P/E ratios or high dividend yields are not high returns on invested capital.
necessarily good values while stocks with high valuations are not necessarily bad values. We believe the inclusion of CAP in the dialogue helps
Changes in CAP are a critical driver in valuation.
explain the seeming success of some investors, irrespective of their stated approach. Said differently, the techniques employed by most successful Experience shows that CAPs are rarely static, and are
money managers— no matter how they are characterized— collapse into a model that is rooted in the drivers of cash flow, risk and CAP. usually in the process of expanding or shrinking.
~
The essence of growth investing, it appears, is to purchase stocks of companies with high returns, and stable or expanding CAPs. We would note ABOVE-COST-OF-CAPITAL RETURNS
that CAP is unlikely to expand if the rate of return on incremental investment is declining sharply or is below the cost of capital. Value investing, Refers to the returns on investment that surpass the
on the other hand, appears to either seek out those value-creating companies that have particularly short CAPs for reasons that can be identified as cost of capital. The cost of capital is the minimum rate
of return required by investors to compensate for the
transitory, or to identify businesses with improving returns, and hence potential for widening CAPs. Investing that focuses solely on statistically risk of investing in a particular asset or project. It
cheap companies often leaves portfolio managers with a number of value neutral or value-destroying companies that show little potential to improve represents the opportunity cost of using funds for a
their performance. specific investment rather than alternative uses.
THE TECHNICALS
DEFINITION OF
TREND
THE TREND ANALYSIS
The concept of trend is absolutely essential to
the technical approach to market analysis. All
of the tools used by the chartist- support and CLASSIFICATIONS OF TREND
resistance levels, price patterns, moving In addition to having three directions, trend is usually broken down into the three categories. Those three categories are the major, intermediate, and
averages, trendlines, etc.-have the sole near term trends. In reality, there are almost an infinite number of trends interacting with one another, from the very short term trends covering minutes
purpose of helping to measure the trend of the and hours to superlong trends lasting 50 or 100 years. Most technicians, however, limit trend classifications to three. There is a certain amount of
market for the purpose of participating in that
ambiguity, however, as to how different analysts define each trend.
trend. We often hear such familiar expressions
as "always trade in the direction of the trend," Dow Theory, for example, classifies the major trend as being in effect for longer than a year. Because futures traders operate in a shorter time dimension
"never buck the trend," or "the trend is your than do stock investors, I would be inclined to shorten the major trend to anything over six months in the commodity markets. Dow defined the
friend." So let's spend a little time to define
what a trend is and classify it into a few
intermediate, or secondary, trend as three weeks to as many months, which also appears about right for the futures markets. The near term trend is
categories. usually defined as anything less than two or three weeks.
Each trend becomes a portion of its next larger trend. For example, the intermediate trend would be a correction in the major trend. In a long term
In a general sense, the trend is simply the
uptrend, the market pauses to correct itself for a couple of months before resuming its upward path. That secondary correction would itself consist of
direction of the market, which way it's
moving. But we need a more precise defi- shorter waves that would be identified as near term dips and rallies. This theme recurs many times that each trend is part of the next larger trend and
nition with which to work. is itself comprised of smaller trends.
When someone asks what the trend is in a given market, it is difficult, if not impossible, to respond until you know which trend the person is inquiring
First of all, markets don't generally move in a
straight line in any direction. Market moves about. You may have to respond in the manner previously discussed by defining the three different trend classifications.
are characterized by a series of zigzags. These Quite a bit of misunderstanding arises because of different traders' perceptions as to what is meant by a trend. To long term position traders, a few
zigzags resemble a series of successive waves days' to a few weeks' price action might be insignificant. To a day trader, a two or three day advance might constitute a major uptrend. It's especially
with fairly obvious peaks and troughs. It is the important, then, to understand the different degrees of trend and to make sure that all involved in a transaction are talking about the same ones.
direction of those peaks and troughs that As a general statement, most trend-following approaches focus on the intermediate trend, which may last for several months. The near term trend is
constitutes market trend. Whether those peaks used primarily for timing purpos- es. In an intermediate uptrend, short term setbacks would be used to initiate long positions.
and troughs are moving up, down, or sideways
tells us the trend of the market.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
In any event, support is an area on a price chart that shows buyers’ willingness to buy. It is at this level that demand will usually overwhelm supply,
causing the price decline to halt and reverse. Resistance is the opposite of support. Prices move up because there is more demand than supply. As the
prices move higher, there will come a point when selling will overwhelm the desire to buy.
In an uptrend, the resistance levels represent pauses in that uptrend and are usually exceeded at some points. In a downtrend, support levels are not
sufficient to stop the decline permanently, but are able to check it at least temporarily.
Whenever a support or resistance level is penetrated by a significant amount, they reverse their roles and become the opposite. A resistance would
become a support and support would become resistance.
RBI Policy
The next important event to focus on next week would be the interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee in its three-day meeting. All economists are of the view that there will be no change in policy
rates on April 5 and any cut in interest rates going ahead will be majorly dependent on the US Federal Reserve action, but the commentary will be closely tracked.
CPI inflation in February eased to 5.09 percent from 5.10 percent in previous month, and the core inflation (inflation excluding food and fuel) dropped further to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent during the same
month.
Oil Prices
The crude prices rallied for third consecutive month, rising 6.3 percent for March month and 13 percent in March 2024 quarter. This surge was attributed to OPEC+ output cuts and market anticipation of lower
interest rates. Additionally, signs of Russia complying with OPEC production pledges, shifting the focus from exports to production, may further stimulate price increases in the crude oil market.
IPO
On the primary market front, the new financial year (FY25) will kick off by Bharti Hexacom IPO, but there will be no new IPO launch in the SME segment. Bharti Hexacom will open its Rs 4,275-crore public
issue for three-day subscription on April 3, with a price band at Rs 542-570 per share.
In the SME segment, seven companies namely Radiowalla Network, TAC Infosec, Yash Optics & Lens, Jay Kailash Namkeen, K2 Infragen, Aluwind Architectural, and Creative Graphics Solutions India will
close their initial public offerings next week.
Further, SRM Contractors will be the only company from the mainboard segment scheduled for listing next week on April 3, while there will be nine companies from the SME segment making the debut on the
bourses which are Vishwas Agri Seeds, Naman In-Store (India), Vruddhi Engineering Works, Blue Pebble, Aspire & Innovative Advertising, GConnect Logitech and Supply Chain, Trust Fintech, Radiowalla
Network, and TAC Infosec.
WEEK
25 to 31st March 2024
INSIDER
TRADING
BUY?
Sentiment Measures from External Data
SELL?
PLEDGE?