DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

Climate Change: Science and Ethics

CIE4510-20

Climate Lab 1
CL1: Zero-dimensional climate model

Group 20
Alice Caseiro, nº 5605903
Josephine van Ruiten, nº 4598040
Juliette Bruining, nº 4465180
Maxine Luger, nº 4494555
Niels Koldewijn, nº 4543386

Instructor
Dr. S.L.M. Lhermitte
2021/2022
Contents

1 Sensitivity of Earth’s climate to Earth’s emissivity 1

1.1 What is the solar constant used by the model (in W/m2)? How does this compare to
the solar constant of the earth? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 What is the albedo used by the model? How does this compare to the albedo of the
earth? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.3 What is the equilibrium temperature? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.4 What is the Earth Emission in Jules per year at equilibrium? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.5 What is the Earth Emission in units of flux (W per m2)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.6 What is the absorbed flux at equilibrium? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.7 What emissivity do you need to get a global mean temperature of 15oC? How does this
compare to the typical emissivities of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere? . . . . . . . 2
1.8 What are the equilibrium temperatures for emissivities of 0.5, 0.6, 0.7 (for an albedo of
0.3)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.9 What are the equilibrium temperatures for albedos of 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 (for an emissivity of
0.6)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.10 Make a combined time series figure for the following 6 scenarios: . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.10.1 emissivities of 0.5,0.6,0.7 (for an albedo of 0.3)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.10.2 albedos of 0.2,0.3,0.4 (for an emissivity of 0.6)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.11 Based on the figure: what can you learn from changing the value of albedo and emissivity
on Earth’s temperature? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.12 Make a plot where you compare the temperature of Earth for different ocean depths of
100m and 50 m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.13 Based on the figure: what can you learn about the ocean on stabilizing temperature
change? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2 Sensitivity of Earth’s climate to solar constant and albedo feedback 5

2.1 Describe the solar constant variation. Which forcings could result in solar constant
variation? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2 What is the initial and final temperature (in deg C) in both runs? . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.3 What is the minimum temperature reached by both runs? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.4 Why is the temperature dropping much faster in the variable albedo vs. constant albedo
scenario? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.5 What is the temperature at which the albedo starts decreasing (around year 750) and
increasing (around year 1500)? Why is the albedo in between until then regardless of
increasing energy coming from the sun? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.6 What is the difference in solar forcing between Run 1 and 3? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.7 What is the difference in temperature between Run 1 and 3? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.8 Why is not the return of the solar constant to present-day levels sufficient to make
Earth return to initial temperatures? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

3 Sensitivity of Earth’s climate to 1000 years of forcing 10

3.1 Plot the observed temperatures and 5 modeled temperatures in one figure for the last
1000 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.2 Shortly describe the observed temperature changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.3 Shortly describe the effect of solar cycle on the modeled temperature . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.4 Shortly describe the effect of volcanic eruptions on the modeled temperatures. How
long does it last? Is the amplitude of the response well simulated by the model? . . . 11
3.5 Shortly describe the effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on the modeled temperature 11
3.6 Shortly describe the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on the modeled temperature 11
 3.7 Use the figure to explain how the last century forcing can be attributed to anthropogenic
forcing and not to natural variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.8 Explain in the model why solar and volcanic activity affect the insulation in the model
whereas GHG affect the emission? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.9 What would be the effect of doubling the GHG concentrations (GHG switch = 2) on
the modeled temperature? How does that compare to literature values of doubling the
GHG concentrations? What may cause the differences between this simple model and
more complex models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

4 Contributions 13

References I
Climate Change: Science and Ethics 2021/2022 Group 20

1 Sensitivity of Earth’s climate to Earth’s emissivity

1.1 What is the solar constant used by the model (in W/m2)? How does this
compare to the solar constant of the earth?
The solar constant used by the model is 1370 W/m2 and the solar constant of the earth is 1368
W/m2 according to slide 13 of the second lecture of this course. When this last number is rounded
up, they are the same.

1.2 What is the albedo used by the model? How does this compare to the albedo
of the earth?
The albedo used by the model is 0.3, which is the same as the albedo of the earth according to the
measuring of the earth’s albedo by NASA [2].

1.3 What is the equilibrium temperature?

The figure below shows that the equilibrium temperature is 255 K, which is -18 °C.

Figure 1: The change of ’Temp K’ in the first model over time

1.4 What is the Earth Emission in Jules per year at equilibrium?

In the figure below is shown that the earth emission at equilibrium is equal to 3.85e24 J/year.

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Figure 2: The change of ’Heat emitted’ in the first model over time

1.5 What is the Earth Emission in units of flux (W per m2)?

The total surface of the earth is 5.1e8 km2 [4], so the earth emission in units of flux is 239.38
W/m2:

3.85e24/(5.1e14 ∗ 365 ∗ 24 ∗ 3600) = 239.38W/m2 (1)

1.6 What is the absorbed flux at equilibrium?

’Flux in’ in the first model shows that the absorbed flux at equilibrium is 239.78 W/m2.

1.7 What emissivity do you need to get a global mean temperature of 15oC?
How does this compare to the typical emissivities of the Earth’s surface and
atmosphere?
Trial and error showed that an emissivity of 0.615 gives a global mean temperature of 15 °C. The
typical emmisivity of the Earth’s surface is between 0.6 and 1 [3] and the typical emissivity of the
earth’s atmosphere is typically 0.8 for a single-layer atmosphere model [1]. The emissivity given by
the model is within the range of possible emmissivities of the Earth’s surface, but is not typical when
a single-layer atmosphere model is used.

1.8 What are the equilibrium temperatures for emissivities of 0.5, 0.6, 0.7 (for an
albedo of 0.3)?
The equilibrium temperatures for the different emissivities are shown in the figure below.

Equilibrium temperature for emissivity of 0.5 (Run 1 in figure): 303 K

Equilibrium temperature for emissivity of 0.6 (Run 2 in figure): 290 K
Equilibrium temperature for emissivity of 0.7 (Run 3 in figure): 279 K

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Figure 3: The change of temperature in the first model over time for different emissivities and a
fixed albedo of 0.3

1.9 What are the equilibrium temperatures for albedos of 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 (for an
emissivity of 0.6)?
The equilibrium temperatures for the different albedos are shown in the figure below.

Equilibrium temperature for albedo of 0.2 (Run 1): 279 K

Equilibrium temperature for albedo of 0.3 (Run 2): 290 K
Equilibrium temperature for albedo of 0.4 (Run 3): 300 K

Figure 4: The change of temperature in the first model over time for different albedos and a fixed
emissivity of 0.6

1.10 Make a combined time series figure for the following 6 scenarios:
It is split up in two figures, because it was not possible to show 6 runs in one graph in Stella.

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1.10.1 emissivities of 0.5,0.6,0.7 (for an albedo of 0.3)?

Figure 5: Time series figure for different emissivities

Legend
Run 1: emissivity of 0.5
Run 2: emissivity of 0.6
Run 3: emissivity of 0.7

1.10.2 albedos of 0.2,0.3,0.4 (for an emissivity of 0.6)?

Figure 6: Time series figure for different albedos

Legend
Run 1: albedo of 0.2
Run 2: albedo of 0.3

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Run 3: albedo of 0.4

1.11 Based on the figure: what can you learn from changing the value of albedo
and emissivity on Earth’s temperature?
The graph of an emissivity of 0.5 with an albedo of 0.3 is the same as an emissivity of 0.6 and an
albedo of 0.2, the graph of an emissivity of 0.6 with an albedo of 0.3 is the same as an emissivity of
0.6 and an albedo of 0.3 and the graph of an emissivity of 0.7 with an albedo of 0.3 is the same as an
emissivity of 0.6 and an albedo of 0.4.

1.12 Make a plot where you compare the temperature of Earth for different ocean
depths of 100m and 50 m.

Figure 7: Plot of the temperature of the earth for different ocean depths
Legend
Run 1: Ocean depth is 100m.
Run 2: Ocean depth is 50m.

1.13 Based on the figure: what can you learn about the ocean on stabilizing tem-
perature change?
The temperature stabilizes faster when the ocean depth decreases.

2 Sensitivity of Earth’s climate to solar constant and albedo feed-

back
For this step the model 2a albedo+solarCs is used. Here two runs need to be made. One run with
a variable albedo and variable solar constant. The second run has a variable solar constant and fixed
albedo of 0.3. From these runs a few plots are made seen below.

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Figure 8: Modelled solar constant variation over time

Figure 9: Modelled temperature over time

Figure 10: Modelled Albedo over time

Figure 11: Modelled absorbed solar radiation over time

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2.1 Describe the solar constant variation. Which forcings could result in solar
constant variation?
The start of the perturbation in the solar constant radiation starts around the year 750 and ends
around the year 1500. This could be due to orbital variations or difference in the sun activity. You
see also in figure 2 that the temperature dropped starting at year 750 and increased around year 1500.
This can be linked that the sun activity was less around 750 and increased around 1500.

2.2 What is the initial and final temperature (in deg C) in both runs?
This is the initial and final temperature for both runs.

288K − 273, 15K = 14, 85°C (2)

Between the year 608 and 1803 the temperature was different. Due to change in albedo

2.3 What is the minimum temperature reached by both runs?

The minimum temperature is:
Run 2:
248K − 273.15 = −25.15°C (3)
Run 1:
191K − 272.15 = −82.15°C (4)

2.4 Why is the temperature dropping much faster in the variable albedo vs. con-
stant albedo scenario?
The solar constant variation has been decreasing around the year 750 as well. This is causing
the sharp decrease in temperature, due to this the earth is covered in snow and ice this is causing
an increase in the albedo. An increase in the albedo results in an increase in radiation which is
accelerating the temperature drop.This is happening in run 1, however in run 2 the albedo is constant,
this means there is less feedback happening resulting in a smaller temperature drop.

2.5 What is the temperature at which the albedo starts decreasing (around year
750) and increasing (around year 1500)? Why is the albedo in between until
then regardless of increasing energy coming from the sun?
For year 750:
Run 2:
271K − 273.15K = −2.15°C (5)

Run 1:
266K − 273.15K = −7.15°C (6)
1500 year:
Run 2:
326K − 273.15K = 52, 85°C (7)

Run 1:
328K − 273.15K = 54, 85°C (8)

Temperature drop leads to more snow and ice increasing the reflection leading to a fast temperature

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drop as explained in the previous question. After this the albedo will remain constant this is due to
the delayed effect of the increase of the temperature and solar constant. The snow and ice are melting
and this is decreasing the radiation.

2.6 What is the difference in solar forcing between Run 1 and 3?

Figure 12: Modelled solar constant variation over time

The solar radiation in run 3 decreases and increases as in run 1 the solar radiation decreases and
increases and decreases again (so becomes higher than the initial temperature)Does not go higher than
the intial value.
This relates to the albedo of run 3, this one remains constant after year 750.

2.7 What is the difference in temperature between Run 1 and 3?

Figure 13: Modelled Temperature over time

The end temperature does not increase again in run 3 because the albedo stays constant after year
750.

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2.8 Why is not the return of the solar constant to present-day levels sufficient to
make Earth return to initial temperatures?
The solar constant increases around the year 1000. This increase leads to the increase of the
temperature. Resulting in the snow and ice melt and the albedo to remain constant instead of
increasing even more. Due to the increase in solar constant the earths temperatures do increase but
do not increase enough to reach the initial temperature values.

Figure 14: Modelled Albedo over time

Figure 15: Modelled absorbed solar radiation over time

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3 Sensitivity of Earth’s climate to 1000 years of forcing

3.1 Plot the observed temperatures and 5 modeled temperatures in one figure for
the last 1000 years

Figure 16: Modelled temperatures for all forcings

Figure 17: Observed temperatures

In the first graph there are depicted the modelled temperatures for 5 different runs of the simple
zero-dimensional climate model for the last 1000 years. Run 1 includes the effect of all 4 different
forcings, while run 2, 3, 4 and 5 include the effect of only a single type of forcing: GHG, Aerosols,
Solar and Volcanic forcings respectively. The second graph represents the observed temperatures for
the last 1000 years.

3.2 Shortly describe the observed temperature changes

After analysing figure 17, one can take conclusions on the variability of the observed temperatures
both on a small and on a large scale: On the one hand the temperature shows a nearly cyclic pattern
on a smaller scale (with a period of approximately 100-200 years). This cycles seem to have a low
approximately every 125 years. On the other hand there is a large scale trend: an overall decrease in
temperature up until approximately year 700 and from there it climbs up again, showing a new low
point around year 850. Finally, the temperature takes a rapid increase from the last low point on.

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3.3 Shortly describe the effect of solar cycle on the modeled temperature
Solar spots and solar forcing are a source of natural climate variability. The effect of the solar cycle
on the modeled temperature is illustrated in figure 16 under run 4, the green trend line. A solar cycle
has approximately a 11 year period and causes the solar constant to rise and fall again. Thus we can
clearly observe that the solar forcing makes the modelled temperatures of run 4 in figure 16 also show
a rising and falling behaviour. This type of behaviour is mostly noticeable between the years 750 and
1000. However the amplitude of the variations caused by the solar forcing are small in comparison
to the ones of other forcings taken into account. Thus, we conclude that the solar cycle has a small
effect on the overall modeled temperatures.

3.4 Shortly describe the effect of volcanic eruptions on the modeled temperatures.
How long does it last? Is the amplitude of the response well simulated by the
model?
The effect of volcanic eruptions, another natural source of climate variability, is represented in
figure 16 with a yellow trend line (run 5). One can notice that this forcing is one of the most dominant
ones in the climate model, showing variations with very big amplitudes. Thus, the trend of the overall
modeled temperatures correlates most and is almost similar with the trend of the volcanic forcing but
only up to approximately the year 800. Before that point the other forces were not as big, but they
grow significantly from there on. Before the year 800 both the line with the effect of the volcanic
eruptions forcing and the line of the overall modelled temperatures show several high and low points
with great and varying amplitudes and also with a variable time interval between those extreme points.
The frequency of change is very high and both the increases and descents in temperature are very
abrupt. Considering only the overall temperatures these peaks seem to have a little delay and the
peak effects of the forcing are flattened, presumably by other (stabilizing) forcings. We can conclude
that the volcanic forcings are very capricious: (volcanic) events have a large influence, causing high
peaks and low lows.

3.5 Shortly describe the effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on the modeled
temperature
Man-made aerosol emissions since the industrial evolution are one of the non natural sources of
climate variability. The effect of these anthropogenic aerosol emissions is represented in figure 16
with an orange trend line (run 2). Aerosols are the most important anthropogenic forcing that leads
to cooling. However, aerosols can have both warming and cooling effects because of the different
properties of the different types of aerosols. While for example black carbon absorbs radiation and
leads to a temperature rise, sulfates and nitrates mostly reflect radiation and make the temperature
fall. Furthermore, aerosols also serve as catalysators for the formation of clouds, as they can serve as
cloud condensation nucleii allowing a faster formation of clouds. Additionally they lead to more, but
smaller cloud droplets. Consequently, clouds become wider and more reflecting, which ultimately will
lead to a higher albedo and thus a cooling effect.

3.6 Shortly describe the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on the modeled
temperature
The heating of the atmosphere through greenhouse gases (GHG) can happen naturally as Earth
emits radiation, that some GHG in the atmosphere trap and reemit towards the surface heating it
further. The problem is that humans are increasing the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere from
fossil fuel burning and changes in land use (e.g. soil disruption and fires for agricultural practices).
This anthropogenic emission of GHG is another non natural source of climate variability.

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The effect of these anthropogenic GHG emissions is depicted in figure 16 with a purple trend line
(run 3). The last century warming is actually attributed to GHG, which is clear in the picture since
the temperature variation is approximately zero until 850/900 when it starts to go up exponentially.
From that year on the trend line for GHG becomes the one that correlates the most with the trend
line for the overall modelled temperatures that includes all forcings.

3.7 Use the figure to explain how the last century forcing can be attributed to
anthropogenic forcing and not to natural variability
As stated in the previous subsection, the main source of the warming in the last century is at-
tributed to GHG emitted by mankind, which is an anthropogenic forcing and not a natural variability.
This becomes clear in the graph 16, because between the year 900-1000 the trend line of the overall
modelled temperatures has a positive slope and resembles the most to the trend line representing the
anthropogenic GHG emissions, which shows a great positive slope as well.

3.8 Explain in the model why solar and volcanic activity affect the insulation in
the model whereas GHG affect the emission?
Volcanic eruptions cause global temperature decreases as shown in figure 16, run 5, through the
great amplitude of the low points of the yellow trend line. This happens because the eruptions cause
ash clouds that reach very high in the atmosphere. The small ash particles decrease the amount of
sunlight reaching the surface of the Earth, which in turn lowers average global temperatures. This
effect adds to solar heat insulation of the Earth. Additionally, solar activity determines the intensity
of the solar heat that will reach Earth’s surface, which varies with the solar cycle. When the solar
constant falls it can be said that less solar heat reaches Earth’s surface, which in turn becomes more
insulated. When the solar constant rises then the opposite occurs. On the other hand, greenhouse
gases trap heat radiated off of the surface of the earth and re-radiate it back to the surface, which in
turn will emit again more heat. Thus, GHG affect Earth’s heat emission.

3.9 What would be the effect of doubling the GHG concentrations (GHG switch =
2) on the modeled temperature? How does that compare to literature values of
doubling the GHG concentrations? What may cause the differences between
this simple model and more complex models
The effect on the modeled temperature is that for the first years it becomes slightly lower but
starts increasing exponentially a bit earlier (year 800 approximately). On top of that the exponential
increase has a higher slope and after 1000 years higher temperatures are reached (16.2576 compared
to 15.788 degrees Celsius). This means a 0.47 degree increase in temperature. In the literature
scientists say that doubling carbon dioxide levels and with that GHG, will likely increase the global
average surface temperature between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees in a period of up to thousand years. Thus,
literature values show a much higher and problematic temperature increase compared to the model.
The zero-dimensional climate model considered has some limitations, namely it is a zero-order energy
balance model, where Earth is represented by single values (no vertical or horizontal variations). As
a consequence, the model gives too cold temperature if Earth behaves as a black-body.

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4 Contributions

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

Niels Koldewijn Josephine van Ruiten Alice Caseiro
Maxine Luger Juliette Bruining -

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References
[1] A Single-Layer Atmosphere Model. url: https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/
atmosphericwarming/singlelayermodel.html.
[2] Measuring Earth’s Albedo. url: https : / / earthobservatory . nasa . gov / images / 84499 /
measuring-earths-albedo.
[3] NASA Spacecraft Maps Earth’s Global Emissivity. Oct. 2014. url: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/
images/nasa-spacecraft-maps-earths-global-emissivity.
[4] What is the Surface Area of the Earth? Feb. 2017. url: https://www.universetoday.com/
25756/surface-area-of-the-earth/.