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G2 Bayesian Analysis

The document discusses Bayesian analysis and statistics. It defines key Bayesian terms like conditional probability, likelihood function, prior belief distribution, Bayes' theorem, and Bayesian inference. It also provides an example of using Bayesian theorem to calculate the probability that a person with breast cancer is male.

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Balte, Richard F.
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38 views4 pages

G2 Bayesian Analysis

The document discusses Bayesian analysis and statistics. It defines key Bayesian terms like conditional probability, likelihood function, prior belief distribution, Bayes' theorem, and Bayesian inference. It also provides an example of using Bayesian theorem to calculate the probability that a person with breast cancer is male.

Uploaded by

Balte, Richard F.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Republic of the Philippines

CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE


F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

is a mathematical method for solving statistical issues using probability. It gives people the resources they need
to reconsider their views in light of new information.

BAYESIAN STATICS BAYESIAN INFERENCE TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE

CONDITIONAL NERNOULI P-VALUE


PROBABILITY LIKELIHOOD
FUNCTION Following the
It is defined as the: calculation of the t-
The probability of The likelihood of score for a specific
an occurrence A seeing a specific sample from a sampling
given B is equal to number of heads in a distribution of fixed
the likelihood of A specific number of coin size, p-values are then
and B occurring flips for a specific predicted.
together divided by number of coins This
the likelihood of B indicates that our
occurring. likelihood of seeing
heads or tails depends
on the coin's mass.
CONFIDENCE
INTERVALS
BAYES THEOREM
Considering that C.I. is
when a number of PRIOR BELIEF not a probability
events combine to DISTRIBUTION distribution, Which values
produce an are likely to occur cannot
is employed to express
exhaustive set with be determined.
event B. our opinions' strengths
regarding the criteria
based on prior
experience.

BAYES FACTOR
is the equivalent of p-
value in the bayesian
framework

HIGHDENSITY
INTERVEAL
HDI is formed from the
posterior distribution after
observing the new data.
Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
- To revise and update the initial assessments of the event probabilities generated by the alternative
solutions.
- is a statistical paradigm that answers research questions about unknown parameters using
probability statements.

BAYES’ THEOREM/RULE:

LIKELIHOOD RATIO – it tells us how much


we should shift our suspicion for a particular
test result.

EVIDENCE – This is the probability of data


as determined by summing (or integrating)
across all possible values of θ, weighted by
how strongly we believe in those values of θ.

POSTERIOR ODDS – It is the result of how


much you would believe a particular
statement based on numerical data that you
have obtained.

PRIOR ODDS – it refers to the strength of


our belief.
Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

Example:
Claire mentions to her brother that she has a friend who has breast cancer but doesn’t say much
else. Recently her brother saw a documentary about males with breast cancer. He wonders if his
sister’s friend is a male. His gut feeling is that it’s not that likely they’re male. To know the probability
that his sister’s friend is a male having a breast cancer he used Bayesian Theorem.

BAYES’ CRITERION
Selects the decision alternative having the maximum expected payoff, or the minimum expected loss
if he is working with a loss table.

Therefore, since the result was 0.79%,


which didn't even reach 1%, we may
arrive at the conclusion that it is
unlikely for his sister's acquaintance, a
man, to get breast cancer.

This idea about updating beliefs is core to BAYESIAN STATISTICS and can be used to Test
Hypotheses, by starting with some idea or belief about how something works.
Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

Reference/s:

Bayesian Statistics Explained in Simple English For Beginners (analyticsvidhya.com)

You Know I’m All About that Bayes: Crash Course Statistics #24 - YouTube

GROUP 2
MEMBERS:

Asis, Jemm

Avellana, Gjene Reijh

Balte, Richard

Bardon, Hannah Mikaela

Bersabe, Anna Marie

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