Section 5.1 Probability Distribution.

A random variable is a variable whose values are determined by chance.

There are two types of random variables: continuous and discrete.

Discrete variables have a finite number of possible values or an infinite number of

values that can be counted. Discrete variables are the result of counting outcomes rather
than measuring them.

Examples of discrete random variables:

• The number of days during the month in which it rained;
• The number of customers standing in line waiting to check out at the grocery
store;
• The number of cars that were found driving faster than the speed limit during the
past hour

Variables that can assume all values in the interval between any two given values are
called continuous variables. Continuous random variables are obtained from data that
can be measure rather than counted. Examples of continuous variables are heights,
weights, temperatures, and time.

Examples of continuous random variables:

• The amount of local rainfall, in inches, this month;
• The length of time a customer required at a checkout lane in the grocery
store;
• The speed of a vehicle measured by a radar gun

Example # 1: In the table below decide if the given example is that of a discrete random
variable or a continuous random variable.

Random Variable Discrete or Continuous?

The number of heads when 3 coins are tossed
The speed of a race car
The number of people who play the lottery each day
The number of births at a hospital on a specific day
The weight of an elephant
The highest temperature recorded on a specific day
The number of people in a household for a certain
community
The time it takes to have a medical physical exam
The number of mathematic majors in your school

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A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can assume
and the corresponding probabilities of the values. The probabilities are determined
theoretically or by observation. Discrete probability distribution can be shown by using a
graph, a table, or a formula.

Example # 2: A die is rolled. Assume that a random variable X represents the outcomes
of this experiment. Construct a probability distribution table and represent this probability
distribution graphically. (Use the x-axis for values of X and the y-axis for P(X)).

Outcome X
Probability P(X)

Example # 3: A coin is tossed 3 times. Suppose that the random variable X is defined as
the number of heads. Construct a probability distribution of X and represent this
probability distribution graphically. (Use the x-axis for values of X and the y-axis for
P(X)).

Outcome HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTT

X

X 0 1 2 3
Probability P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

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Example # 4: A coin is tossed 3 times. Suppose that the random variable X is defined as
the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails. Construct a
probability distribution of X and represent this probability distribution graphically. (Use
the x-axis for values of X and the y-axis for P(X)).

Outcome HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTT

X

X -3 -1 1 3
Probability P(X)

Example # 5: A box contains three $1 bills, two $5 bills, four $10 bills, and one $20 bill.
Construct a probability distribution for the data if X represents the value of a single bill
drawn at random and then replaced.

X
P(X)

Value # of bills
$1
$5
$10
$20
Total:

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Requirements for a Probability Distribution.

1. The sum of the probabilities of all events in the sample space must equal 1.
 P( X ) = 1
2. The probability of each event in the sample space must be between or equal to 1
or 0.
0  P( X )  1

Example # 6: Determine whether the distribution represents a probability distribution.

X 20 30 40 50
P(X) 0.05 0.35 0.4 0.2 YES!
20(0.05) + 30(0.35) + 40(0.4) + 50(0.2) = 37.5 = Mean
Example # 7: Determine whether the distribution represents a probability distribution.

X 7 14 21
NO!
P(X) 0.3 0.1 1.7
0.3+0.1+1.7=2.1 Sum P(x) > 1
Example # 8: Determine whether the distribution represents a probability distribution.

X 5 7 9
P(X) 0.6 0.8 - 0.4 NO!

0.6+0.8+(-0.4) = 1 -0.4 is less than zero not between 0 and 1

Section 5.2 Mean, Variance , Standard Deviation, and

Expectation
Average
The mean of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is
 = X  P ( X ) +X  P ( X ) + X  P ( X ) +    + X  P ( X ) =  X P ( X )
1 1 2 2 3 3 n n
where X X X ....X are the outcomes and P(X ),P(X ),P(X ).....P(X )
1, 2, 3, n 1 2 3 n

are the corresponding probabilities.

=  ( X −  ) 2  P ( X ) 
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The formula for the variance of a probability distribution is   

To simplify computations, a short cut formula can be used.  =   X 2 P ( X )  − 

2 2
 

The standard deviation of a probability distribution is  =  2 . 1475 − (37.5∗37.5) = 68.75

20*20*0.05+30*30*0.35+40*40*0.4+50*50*0.2 = 8.291561976
20 315 640 500 8.29
8.292 4
8.2916
Rounding rule for the Mean, Variance , and Standard Deviation for a
Probability Distribution

The mean, variance, and standard deviation for a probability distribution should be
rounded to one more decimal place than the outcome X.

Example # 9: Find the mean, variance, and the standard deviation of the number of spots
that appear when a die is tossed. (Use the distribution from Example # 2).

Outcome X 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Probability is the # of ways that I get what I want over the total # of way possible!
Mean = sum of the X * P(X)
1*(1/6) + 2*(1/6) + 3*(1/6) + 4*(1/6) +5 *(1/6) + 6*(1/6) = 3.5
Variance = {sum of X * X * P(X)} - 12.25
1*1*(1/6) + 2*2*(1/6)+3*3*(1/6) + 4*4*(1/6) + 5*5*(1/6) +6*6*(1/6)
(1/6) (4/6) (9/6) (16/6) 25/6 36/6 91/6 = 15.1666667
15.1666667 - 12.25 = 2.9166667 = Variance
2.92 = rounding to 2 decimal places
2.917 = rounding to 3 decimal places
2.9167 = rounding to 4 decimal places
Standard Deviation = square root of the Variance = square root of 2.91666667 = 1.707825128
Example # 10: A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the mean, variance, and the standard
deviation for the number of heads. (Use the distribution from Example # 3).

X 0 1 2 3
Probability P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
Mean = sum of X * P(X) = 0 + (.375) + (.75) + (.375) = 1.5
Mean * Mean
Variance = {sum of X * X * P(X)} - (Mean * Mean) 1.5 * 1.5 = 2.25

0 * 0 * (1/8) + 1 * 1 * (3/8) + 2 * 2 *(3/8) + 3 * 3 * (1/8)

= 24/8 = 3
0 + 3/8 + 12/8 + 9/8

Variance = 3 - 2.25 = 0.75

Standard Deviation = Square root of the Variance = 0.8660254038

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Example # 11: A coin is tossed 3 times. Suppose that the random variable X is defined
as the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails. Find the
mean, variance, and the standard deviation for X. (Use the distribution from Example 4).

X -3 -1 1 3
Probability P(X)

Expectation

The expected value of a discrete random variable of a probability distribution is the

theoretical average of the variable. The formula is  = E ( X ) =  X  P ( X ) .
Expected value is used in varies types of games of chance, in insurance, and in other areas , such
as decision theory.

Example # 12: One thousand lottery tickets are sold at $1 each. The prize is a television
value at $350. What is the expected value of the gain if you purchase one ticket?

Win Lose
Gain X
Probability P(X)

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Example # 13: A lottery offers one $1000 prize, one $500 prize, and five $100 prizes.
One thousand tickets are sold at $3 each. Find the expectation if a person buys one ticket.

Win $1000 Win $500 Win $100 Lose

Gain X
Probability P(X)

Example # 14: A ski resort loses $70,000 per season when it does not snow very much
and makes $250,000 profit when it does snow a lot. The probability that it will snow at
least 75” (it means a good season) is 40%. Find the expectation for the profit.

Good season Bad season

Profit X
Probability P(X)

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Section 5.3 The Binomial Distribution.
A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the following four
requirements:
1. There must be a fixed number of trials.

2. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes can be reduced to two
outcomes. These outcomes can be considered as either success or failure.

3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of one another.

4. The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.

The outcomes of a binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these

outcomes are called a binomial distribution.

Example # 15: Which of the following are binomial experiments or can be reduced to
binomial experiment?

a) Tossing a coin 100 times to see how many heads occur.

b) Drawing 10 cards from a deck with replacement and counting the number of
diamonds

c) Drawing 10 cards from a deck without replacement and counting the number of
diamonds

d) Asking 50 people what is their favorite brand of coffee.

e) Taking a 20- question, multiple-choice exam with 5 choices for each question.
( Assume that a student guesses all answers).

Example # 16: A coin is tossed 4 times. Suppose that the random variable X is
defined as the number of heads. Construct a probability distribution of X and draw the
probability histogram.

Outcome
X

Outcome
X

X 0 1 2 3 4
Probability P(X)

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 Binomial Probability Formula

In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in n trials is

n!
P( X ) =  p X  q n− X where
(n − X )! X !

P - the probability of success

q - the probability of failure. q=1- p
n - the number of trials
X - the number of successes in n trials

Problem # 17: Complete the probability of X successes, using the binomial formula.
n = 8, X = 5, p = 0.3.

Example # 18: Form the binomial distribution of the experiment of rolling a die 3 times
and counting the number of times a 5 turns up.

n= p= q=

X P(X)

Total

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Problem # 19: A students takes a 7 – question, true/false exam and guesses on each
question.

n= p= q=

a) Find the probability of guessing exactly 5 out of 7 correctly.

b) Find the probability of guessing at least 5 out of 7 correctly.

Problem # 20: A students takes a 6 – question, multiple-choice exam with four choices
for each question and guesses on each question.

n= p= q=

a) Find the probability of guessing exactly 2 out of 6 correctly.

b) Find the probability of guessing at most 2 out of 6 correctly.

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Example # 21: It is reported that 77% of workers aged 16 and over drive to work
alone. Choose 8 workers at random. Find the probability that

a) All drive to work alone

b) At most 7 drive at work alone

c) At least 7 drive at work alone

Example # 22: Compute the probability of X successes, using Table B in

Appendix C

a) n = 4, p = 0.60, X = 3

b) n = 12, p = 0.30, X=7

c) n = 16, p = 0.20 , X = 5

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation for the Binomial Distribution

The mean, variance, and the standard deviation of a variable that has the binomial
distribution can be found by using the following formulas.

Mean:  = n  p Variance:  2 = n  p  q Standard deviation:  = n  p  q

Example # 23: Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the number of heads
when ten coins are tossed.

Example # 24: If 3% of calculators are defective, find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a lot of 300 calculators.

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