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ABNB Valuation

The document provides financial projections for Airbnb from 2019 to 2027 including revenue, costs, expenses, EBITDA, cash flow, and valuation. It includes assumptions for revenue growth, margins, expenses, capital expenditures, and discount rates to calculate intrinsic value per share of $104.89.

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Kasturi Mazumdar
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47 views

ABNB Valuation

The document provides financial projections for Airbnb from 2019 to 2027 including revenue, costs, expenses, EBITDA, cash flow, and valuation. It includes assumptions for revenue growth, margins, expenses, capital expenditures, and discount rates to calculate intrinsic value per share of $104.89.

Uploaded by

Kasturi Mazumdar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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AIRBNB FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

YEAR 2019A 2020A 2021A


ASSUMPTIONS
Revenue YoY Growth 31.60% -29.70% 77.38%
Cost of Revenue 24.89% 25.93% 19.29%
Operating Expenses 85.22% 175.87% 71.66%
Income Tax 5.47% -2.87% 0.87%
Depreciation & Amortization 2.14% 3.08% 1.20%
Stock-Based Compensation 2.04% 88.90% 15.00%
Capital Expenditures -2.62% -1.10% -0.42%
Changes in Net Working Capital -10.78% -24.36% 4.99%

UNLEVERED CASH FLOW CALCULATION Calendar Year End


Revenue $ 4,805.00 $ 3,378.00 $ 5,992.00
Cost of Revenue $ 1,196.00 $ 876.00 $ 1,156.00
Gross Profit $ 3,609.00 $ 2,502.00 $ 4,836.00
% Margin 75.11% 74.07% 80.71%
Operating Expenses $ 4,095.00 $ 5,941.00 $ 4,294.00
EBIT $ (486.00) $ (3,439.00) $ 542.00
% Margin -10.11% -101.81% 9.05%
Less: Income Taxes $ 263.00 $ (97.00) $ 52.00
EBITDA $ (749.00) $ (3,342.00) $ 490.00
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization $ 103.00 $ 104.00 $ 72.00
Plus: Stock-Based Compensation $ 98.00 $ 3,003.00 $ 899.00
Less: Capital Expenditures $ (126.00) $ (37.00) $ (25.00)
Less: Changes in Net Working Capital $ (518.00) $ (823.00) $ 299.00
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $ (1,192.00) $ (1,095.00) $ 1,735.00
% Margin -24.81% -32.42% 28.96%

Terminal Value $ 74,157.78


Discount Rate 10.00%
Perpetual Growth Rate 4.00%

Timing of FCF (mid year)


Present Value of FCF

Enterprise Value $ 59,008.13


Plus: Cash & Marketable Securities $ 9,622.00
Less: Total Debt $ 2,341.00
Equity Value $ 66,289.13
No. of Shares Outstanding (in miilions) 632
Intrinsic Value per share $ 104.89
IRBNB FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND VALUATION
2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

40.17% 13.99% 15.16% 14.82% 12.94% 14.72%


17.85% 17.46% 17.23% 17.00% 16.81% 16.52%
59.61% 58.00% 57.00% 56.00% 55.00% 54.00%
1.14% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 20.00%
0.63% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
11.07% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00%
-0.30% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50%
-5.33% 12.40% -0.04% 4.50% 6.50% 4.00%

Calendar Year Ending December 31, ( Value in millions)


$ 8,399.00 $ 9,574.02 $ 11,025.44 $ 12,659.41 $ 14,297.54 $ 16,402.14
$ 1,499.00 $ 1,671.62 $ 1,899.68 $ 2,152.10 $ 2,403.42 $ 2,709.63
$ 6,900.00 $ 7,902.40 $ 9,125.76 $ 10,507.31 $ 11,894.12 $ 13,692.50
82.15% 82.54% 82.77% 83.00% 83.19% 83.48%
$ 5,007.00 $ 5,552.93 $ 6,284.50 $ 7,089.27 $ 7,863.65 $ 8,857.15
$ 1,893.00 $ 2,349.46 $ 2,841.26 $ 3,418.04 $ 4,030.48 $ 4,835.35
22.54% 24.54% 25.77% 27.00% 28.19% 29.48%
$ 96.00 $ 117.47 $ 284.13 $ 512.71 $ 806.10 $ 967.07
$ 1,797.00 $ 2,231.99 $ 2,557.13 $ 2,905.34 $ 3,224.38 $ 3,868.28
$ 53.00 $ 95.74 $ 110.25 $ 126.59 $ 142.98 $ 164.02
$ 930.00 $ 957.40 $ 992.29 $ 1,012.75 $ 1,000.83 $ 984.13
$ (25.00) $ (47.87) $ (55.13) $ (63.30) $ (71.49) $ (82.01)
$ (448.00) $ 1,187.18 $ (4.41) $ 569.67 $ 929.34 $ 656.09
$ 2,307.00 $ 2,050.08 $ 3,600.14 $ 3,411.71 $ 3,367.36 $ 4,278.33
27.47% 21.41% 32.65% 26.95% 23.55% 26.08%

0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50


$ 1,954.68 $ 3,120.54 $ 2,688.38 $ 2,412.21 $ 2,786.17
CAGR
14%

15%

20%

15%

20%

5.00
$ 46,046.15
B

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