Basic Definitions of Probability

– People use the term probability many times each day.

– For example, physician says that a patient has a 50-50 chance

of surviving a certain operation.

– Another physician may say that she is 95% certain that a

patient has a particular disease

– An economist may say that he is 80% certain this year inflation

may be higher than last year.

• Probability: is the likelihood of occurrence of an outcome.

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1.1. Deterministic and non-deterministic
models
• Models are integral parts of both social and natural
sciences. In both cases we construct or fit models to
represent the interrelationship between two or more
variables.
• Particularly, in the fields like Statistics and
Economics models are fitted for the sake of
forecasting.
• It is possible to classify models in to different
groups based on varied attributes or criteria.
• Based on the type of experiment for which we fit the
model, we classify model as Deterministic and
Nondeterministic models.
Experiment
• Experiment is any activity (process or action) that
we intended to do under certain condition to obtain a
well defined results, usually called the outcome of
an experiment.
• The possible results of an experiment may be one or
more. Based on the number of possible results, we
may classify an experiment as Deterministic and
Non-deterministic experiment.
• Steps involved in an Experiment:
– Input Equipments, material, input data etc.
– Action to be performed
– Output list of all results of the experiment
Deterministic Experiments
• A precisely deterministic input yields a precisely
deterministic output. This is an experiment for which the
outcomes can be predicted in advance and is known prior
to its conduct.
• For this type of experiment we have only one possible
result (certain and unique).
• The result of an experiment is assumed to be dependent on
the condition under which an experiment is performed.
• A mathematical form of equations to be defined on this
experiment is called a deterministic model.
• Ex: Distance covered by a car traveling at a constant
speed; An experiment conducted to verify the Newton
Laws of Motion: F = ma; an experiment conducted to
determine the economic law of demand: Qt =a+bPt where
Q is a quantity demand, P is the price and t is a time; etc…
Non-deterministic Experiments
• Even exact knowledge of input and action does not allow exact
prediction of outcome.
• This is an experiment for which the outcome of a given trial
cannot be predicted in advance prior to its conduct.
• We also call this experiment as unpredictable or probabilistic or
stochastic or random experiment.
• Usually the result of this experiment is subjected to chance and
is possibly more than one.
• Ex:
– Tossing a coin;
– Throwing a dice;
– Life of an electric bulb;
– Number of road accidents in a day at Addis Ababa;
– Queue size at a railway reservation counter; etc.
• In probability theory we are mainly concerned with the random
experiments.
 Non-deterministic Experiments cont’
• In this experiment, whatever the condition under which an
experiment is performed, one cannot tell with certainty
which outcome occurs at any particular execution of an
experiment though it is possible to list those outcomes.
• This types of experiments are characterized by the
following three properties:
I. The experiment is repeatable under identical conditions.
II. The outcome in any particular trial is variable, i.e., it
depends on some chance or random mechanism.
III. If the experiment is repeated a large number of times,
then some regularity becomes apparent in the outcomes
obtained. This regularity enables us to set some
mathematical form of equations called non-
deterministic model.
• Outcome: is the result of a single trial of a random experiment.

Example: in tossing a fair coin {T}, {H}

• Sample Space: is the Set of all possible outcomes of a probability

experiment
• Example 1: Rolling a die:
• Example 2: Tossing a coin once: .
• Example 3: Tossing a coin twice:
Event: is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one or
more outcomes of a random experiment.
– They are denoted by capital letters.
Example: Getting an odd numbers in rolling a die.
Solution: Let “A” is an event of getting odd numbers. Then
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• Equally Likely Events

– Events which have the same chance of occurring.

• Roll a die, let A be observing a number less than 4 and B be observing a
number greater than 3.
– A and B are equally likely events

• Complement of an Event
– the complement of an event A means non-occurrence of A and contains
those points of the sample space which don’t belong to A.
• Example: Toss a fair die, let A be observing an odd number, then
A={1, 3, 5}

AC ={2, 4, 6}

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• Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or
sample point.

• Mutually Exclusive (disjoint) Events: Two events which cannot

happen at the same time (no intersection).

• Independent Events: Two events are independent if the

occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other
occurring.

• Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event

affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the
probability is changed

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 1.2. Review of set theory
• Set: A set is a well-defined collection or list of objects.
• An object that belongs to a particular set is called an element.
• Sets are usually denoted by capital letters (A, B, C etc). On the other
hand, elements of sets are usually denoted by small letters (a, b, c etc).
 Two sets are equal if they have exactly the same elements in them
 A set that contains no elements is called a null set or an empty set
 If every element in Set A is also in Set B, then Set A is a subset of Set B
• Examples: The set of students in a class; the set of even numbers; the
set of possible outcomes of an experiment; etc.
• Note: If X belongs to set A we write X ∈ A, and if X does not belong to
set A we write X ∉ A
 Review of set theory

Definition and Types of Sets

Universal set (U): Universal set is the collection of all objects
under consideration.
Example: The set of real numbers can be seen to be
universal set of numbers.
Empty set (φ or {} ): A set with no element is called empty set.
Example: If the universal set is the set of positive integers,
then getting a negative integer is impossible
Subset: A ⊆ B iff X ∈ A ⇒ X ∈ B for all X element in the
universal set.

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 Review of set theory

Set operations
Complement: For any set A, the complement of A denoted by A/, or Ac or
Ā is given by:

{X ∈ U/ X∉A}
Note: U′= φ ; φ′= U ; ( A′)′= A

Union: Given two sets A and B, the union of A and B denoted by A∪ B is

the set of all elements, which belong to set A or B, or both.

A∪B ={ X: X ∈ A ∨ X∈ B}

13
 Review of set theory

Set operations
Intersection: For any two sets A and B the intersection of A and B is
defined to be the set of all elements that occur in both set A and also set B.
Symbolically, we write
A ∩ B = { x U | x  A and x  B }

Set difference: elements in A but not in B

A - B = { x | x  A and x  B }
A - B = A ∩ B c  Important!
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 Review of set theory

Properties of set operations

I.Commutative law

 A∪ B = B∪ A, and

 A∩ B = B ∩A

II.Associative law

 A∪ (B ∪ C) = (A ∪ B) ∪ C, and

 A ∩ (B ∩ C) = (A ∩ B) ∩ C

III.Distributive law
 A ∪ (B ∩ C) = (A ∪ B) ∩ (A ∪ C),

 A ∩ (B ∪ C) = (A ∩B) ∪ (A ∩ C),

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 Review of set theory

Properties of set operations…

V. Demorgan’s law

• (A∪ B) c = A c ∩ B c and (A ∩B) c = A c ∪ B c

Remark

• A ∩ B = B - (Ac ∩ B) or

• A ∩ B = A - (A ∩ Bc)

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Combination of events

Union: The event A∪ B occurs if either A or B or both occur.

Intersection: The event A ∩ B occurs if both A and B occur

Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A

means nonoccurrence of A

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Exercise 1: A person is selected at random from a population
of a given town

A: be the event that the person is male

B: be the event that the person is under 30 years

C: be the event that the person speaks foreign language

Describe the following events symbolically

a) A male under 30 years who does not speak foreign language.

b) A female who is either under 30 or speaks foreign language.

c) A person who is either under 30 or female but not both.

d) Male who is either under 30 or speaks foreign language but not both.

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Solution 1
a) A male under 30 years who does not speak foreign
language.
(A ∩ B) ∩ C′
b) A female who is either under 30 or speaks foreign
language.
A′ ∩ (B ∪ C)
c) A person who is either under 30 or female but not both.
(B ∪ A′) ∩ (B ∩ A)′
d) Male who is either under 30 or speaks foreign language but
not both.
A ∩ [(B ∪ C) ∩ (B ∩ C) ′]

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 Counting Techniques

• In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know

– The number of elements of an event

– The number of elements of the sample space.

• That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what

is possible.

• In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several

rules of counting.

– The Addition rule − The Permutation rule

– The multiplication rule − The Combination rule

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 1. Addition Principle (Rule)
• If a task can be accomplished by "k distinct" procedures
where the ith procedures has “ni” alternatives , then the
total number of ways of accomplishing the task is:

Example: There are two transportation means from city A to

city B, either using bus transportation or train transportation.
There are 3 buses and 2 trains. How many ways of
transportation is there from city A to city B?
Solution: A person can take any of 5 means of transportation
from city A to B.
 Multiplication Rule
– If an operation consists of k steps and
• the 1st step can be performed in n1 ways,
• the 2nd step can be performed in n2 ways (regardless of how the
1st step was performed) ,
…

• The kth step can be performed in nk ways (regardless of how the

preceding steps were performed) ,
then the entire operation can be performed in
n1 ∙ n2 ∙… ∙ nk ways.
Example: If we have 6 different shirts, 4 different pants, 5 different
pairs of socks and 3 different pairs of shoes, how many different
outfits could we wear? (Ans: 360)
Exercise: How many 7-character license plates are possible if the
first three characters must be letters, the last four must be digits 0-9,
and repeated characters are allowed?
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 Permutation Rule
– A permutation is an arrangement of "n distinct" objects in a
specific order.
– The number of ways of selecting r distinct objects from n distinct
objects and rearranging those r objects is given by the formula
n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!
– The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together
is n! or

– The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are alike (the

same), k2 are alike, ... etc, then the total number of arrangements is

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Example 1: In how many ways can the letters A,B and C be arranged
taken two at a time.
Example 2: a) In how many ways can 3 students be arranged in
rows of 3 chairs?
b) In how many ways can a student arrange his/her 4 different
books on a shelf?
Example 3: If 2 different mathematics books, 3 different statistics
books and 2 different Chemistry books are to be arranged in a shelf,
then how many different arrangements are possible if:
a) The books in each particular subject must "stand all together".
b) Only the Mathematics books must stand all together.
c) There is no restriction.
Example 4: How many different permutations of n objects can be
made from the letters in the word MISSISSIPPI.

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 Combination Rule
–Combination is a selection of n distinct objects without regard to
order.
–It is used when the order of arrangement is not important, as in the
selection process.
–The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is
denoted by

–Example: A committee of two people must be chosen from a group

of five people. How many different committees can be formed?
(Ans: 10 ways)

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Example 1: Given the letters A,B,C & D. List the number of
permutations & combinations for selecting two letters.

Example 2: Out of 30 male students and 20 female students in

Statistics department, a committee consists of 3 male students and 2
female students is to be formed. In how many ways can this be done
if:
a) any male students and any female students can be included (all
students are eligible). (Ans= )
b) One particular female must be a member. (Ans= )
c) Two particular male students cannot be member for some reasons.
(Ans= )
 Basic approaches to probability
– There are four different conceptual approaches to the study of
probability theory. These are:
• The Classical Approach.
• The Frequents (Empirical) Approach.
• The Axiomatic Approach.
• The Subjective Approach.
1. The Classical Approach
This approach is used when all outcomes are equally likely. Total
number of outcome is finite, say n.
Example 1: When a single die is rolled, then what is the probability
of getting an odd numbers?
Solution: let A- be an event that getting an odd numbers in rolling a
die. Then

Example 2: A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non

defective candles. If 10 of these candles are selected at random
without replacement, what is the probability that:
a) All will be defective?
b) 6 will be non defective?
c) All will be non defective?
Exercise: From a group of 5 men and 7 women, it is required to form
a committee of 5 persons. If the selection is made randomly, then
what is the probability that 2 men and 3 women will be in the
committee?
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 2. The Frequents Approach (Empirical Probability)
• This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to
an event.
• In a given frequency distribution, the probability of an event A
being in a given class is:

Example 2: In a sample of 50 people, 22 had type "A", 5 had type

"B", 2 had type "AB" and 21 had type "O" blood. Find the
probability that a person has blood type "O"?
Solution: Let A- be the event that a person has blood type "O". Then

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 3. Axiomatic Approach
– Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated
with E. With each event A a real number called the probability of A
(P(A)) satisfies the following properties called axioms of
probability or postulates of probability

1) P(A)≥0
2) P(S)=1
– P(Ac)=1- P(A)
– P(Ø) =0
– P(AnBc) = P(A)-P(AnB)
3) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
– If If A1, A2, A3 ... is a finite or infinite sequence of mutually
exclusive events of S, then
P(A1 u A2 u A3 u ...) = P( A1) + P( A2) + P( A3) + ...=  P( Ai )
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 Approaches to Measuring Probability
Derived Probabilities
P(φ)=0 for any sample space S

P(A′)=1-P(A)

P(A U B)=P(A)+P(B) - P(A ∩B)

For any two events say, A and B, the probability that exactly one of the
events A or B occurs but not both is :

P(A U B)=P(A)+P(B) - 2P(A ∩B)

31
Example: Sixty percent of the families in a certain community own
their own car, thirty percent own their own home, and twenty percent
own both their own car and their own home. If a family is randomly
chosen,
a) what is the probability that this family do not have a car?
b) what is the probability that this family owns a car or a house?
c) what is the probability that this family owns a car or a house
but not both?
Solution: Let A represents that the family owns a car and B
represents that the family owns a house. P(A)=0.6, P(B)=0.3, and
P(A n B)=0.2.
a) P(Ac)=0.4
b) P(AUB) =0.7
c) P((AnBc)U(AcnB))=0.5

32
 Subjective Approach
– Subjective probability is a prediction that is based on an
individual's personal judgment, not on mathematical calculations.
– Subjective probabilities, like the name suggests, are probabilities
that come from an individual's personal judgment of an event
happening.
– Subjective probability differ from person to person, and because
they are subjective, they can be based on a person's beliefs or
other factors.
– Used when no historical data.

33
 Conditional probability and Independence
– Conditional probability provides us with a way to reason about the
outcome of an experiment, based on partial information.
– If the occurrence of one event has an effect on the occurrence of
the other event then the two events are conditional or dependant
events.
– The conditional probability of an event is a probability obtained
with the additional information that some other event has already
occurred.
– The conditional probability of an event A given that B has already
occurred, denoted P(A|B) is
P A  B 
P( A | B)  , if P(B)  0
P B 
– Remark:
P ( Ac | B )  1  P  A | B 

34
 Conditional probability …
 Definition
 The probability that B occurs given that A occurs is called the conditional
probability of B given A and is written
P( B | A)
 The conditional probability of B given A is the probability that an event, B,
will occur given that another event, A, has occurred
P A  B 
P( B | A)  , if P(A)  0
P  A
 Example: A fair coin is tossed two times. What is the probability that the
second coin is a head if you know that at least one head appears.
Conditional
outcome, new
sample space
(reduced)
Example: A family has two children. What is the conditional
probability that both are boys given that at least one of them is a boy?
Assume that the sample space S is given by S = {(b, b), (b, g), (g, b),
(g, g)}, and all outcomes are equally likely. (b, g) means, for
instance, that the older child is a boy and the younger child is a girl.
Solution :
• Let A be both are boys and
• B be at least one of them is a boy
P A  B 
1
4 1
P( A | B)   
P B  3 3
4

Exercise: Let A and B are two events such that P(A Ս B) = 3/4,
P(A Ո B) = 1/4 and P(A′) = 2/3, then find P(A′/B)? Ans = 5/8.

36
 The addition Rules for Probability
1. If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the
probability that A or B will occur is

2. If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then the

probability that A or B will occur is

Example 1: If a single card is drawn from an ordinary deck and its

number is noted, then find the probability that:
a) It is an ace or a diamond.
b) It is an ace or a black.
c) It is an ace or a Jack.
 The Multiplication Rules (Theorems)
The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or
more events that occur in sequence.
• Independent events: Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of "A" does not affect the probability of "B" occurring.
• Dependent events: Two events are dependent if the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way
the probability is changed.
5.6.1 The Multiplication Rules for Probability
1. If two events A and B are independent, then the probability of
both A and B will occur is

2. If two events A and B are dependent, then the probability of both

A and B will occur is
Example 1: A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
Solution: These two events are independent since the outcome of the
first event (tossing a coin) does not affect the probability outcome of
the second event (rolling a die).

Example 2: An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white

balls. A ball is selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A
second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of:
a) Selecting two blue balls.
b) Selecting a blue ball and then a white ball.
c) Selecting a red ball and then a blue ball.
Example 3: A card is drawn from an ordinary deck and its number
noted. Then it is not replaced. A second card is drawn and its number
noted, then find the probability of:
a) Getting two Jacks (J). b)Getting an ace ( A) and a king (K).
c) Getting a flower and a spade. d) Getting a red and a black in order.
 Independence
– Two events A and B are independent if and only if P A  B  P APB
– independence is equivalent to the condition P(A|B) = P(A).

Example: Toss a fair a coin and die together, what is the probability
of getting head on the coin if the die shows an even number.

Exercise: A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the
probability of getting two black balls in drawing one after the other
under the following conditions?
a) The first ball drawn is not replaced?
b) The first ball drawn is replaced?

40
 Independent events

Example: A box contains four black and six white balls. Two balls are drawn
one after the other. What is the probability that the second ball drawn is black
under the following conditions?
a) The first ball drawn is not replaced.
5
9
6
10
4
9
4
10
6
9

3
9
The second ball drawn is black with probability 4 10
b) The first ball drawn is replaced.
41
Bayes' Theorem and The Total Probability Theorem
• The law of total probability: Suppose 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … , 𝐵𝑚 are
disjoint events such that 𝐵1 ∪ 𝐵2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐵𝑚 = 𝑆. The probability
of an arbitrary event A can be expressed as:
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃 𝐵1 𝑥 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵1 + 𝑃 𝐵2 𝑥 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵2 + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐵𝑚 𝑥 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵𝑚 .
 Bayes' Rule
Suppose the events 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … , 𝐵𝑚 are disjoint and 𝐵1 ∪ 𝐵2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐵𝑚 = 𝑆.
The conditional probability of Bi given an arbitrary event A, can be
expressed as:
𝑃 𝐵𝑖 ∩ 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵𝑖 𝑥 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵𝑖
𝑃 𝐵𝑖 /𝐴 = =
𝑃𝐴 𝑃 𝐵1 𝑥 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵1 + 𝑃 𝐵2 𝑥 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵2 + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐵𝑚 𝑥 𝑃 𝐴/𝐵𝑚

Example 1: Box 1 contains 2 red balls and one blue ball. Box 2
contains 3 blue balls and one red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls
heads up, Box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, Box
2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Then find the probability of
selecting a red ball.
Example 2: A shipment of two boxes, each containing 6 telephones,
is received by a store. Box1 contains one defective phone and box 2
contains 2 defective phones. After the boxes are unpacked, a phone is
selected and found to be defective. Then find the probability that it
came from box 2
 Random variable
• A random variable is a variable that has a single numerical
value, determined by chance, for each outcome of the
experiment or
• a numerical valued function defined on sample space, usually
denoted by capital letters.
• Example: If X is a random variable, then it is a function from
the elements of the sample space to the set of real numbers. i.e
• X is a function X: S  R
• A random variable takes a possible outcome and assigns a
number to it.
• Example: Flip a coin twice, let X be the number of heads in
two tosses
• X={0, 1, 2}

44
• A random variable is discrete if it takes on a countable number of
values (i.e. there are gaps between values).
• Example
– the number of jobs submitted to a printer,
– the number of errors in a program,
– the number of failed components of a computer
• A random variable is continuous if there are an infinite number of
values the random variable can take, and they are densely packed
together (i.e. there are no gaps between values).
• Example
– thickness of an item
– time required to complete a task
– temperature of a solution
– height, in meters
• A probability distribution is a description of the chance a random
variable has of taking on particular values. It is often displayed in
a graph, table, or formula.
45
Probability Distribution

• A probability distribution consists of a value a random variable

can assume and the corresponding probabilities of the values.

• Example: Consider the experiment of tossing a coin twice. Let X

is the number of heads. Construct the probability distribution of X
– First identify the possible value that X can assume.

– Calculate the probability of each possible distinct value of X and express X

in the form of frequency distribution

X 0 1 2
P(X=x) 1/4 2/4 1/4

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 Discrete Random Variable
• If the random variable X can assume only a
particular finite or countably infinite set of
values, it is said to be a discrete random variable.
• For example, if you throw a die, the outcome X is
a random variable, which can assume only the
values 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
Example: Consider an experiment of "flipping a
fair coin 3 times". List the elements of the sample
space that are assumed to be equally likely (as this
is what is meant by a fair or balanced coin) and the
corresponding values x of the r-v X, the number of
heads observed.
 Discrete probability distribution
• A probability distribution describes the possible values and their
probability of occurring.
• Discrete probability distribution is called probability mass
function (pmf), p(.) and need to satisfy following conditions.
for all x where X is a discrete r.v.

Example: Suppose we record four consecutive baby births in a

hospital. Let X = The difference in the number of girls and boys
born.
Solution
S={mmmm, mmmf, mmfm, mfmm, fmmm, mmff, mfmf, mffm,
fmfm, ffmm, fmmf, mfff, fmff, ffmf, fffm, ffff}
 Continuous Random Variables
• A random variable X is said to be continuous if it
can take all possible values (integral as well as
fractional) between certain limits.
• Continuous random variables occur when we deal
with quantities that are measured on a continuous
scale.
• For instance, the life length of an electric bulb,
the speed of a car, weights, heights, and the like
are continuous.
• In such cases, probabilities are associated with
intervals or regions of a continuous random
variable, and not with individual points.
 Probability Density Function (pdf)
• A formula giving the probability of the different values
of Continuous random variable X is the probability
density function (pdf) and is usually denoted by f(x).
• A random variable, X, is said to be a continuous random
variable if there is a non–negative function, f, that
satisfies the following conditions.

• the probability is simply the area

under the pdf curve over the interval [a,b].
Important remarks: In the case of discrete random variable,
the probability at a point, i.e., P(X = c) is not zero for some
fixed c. However, in case of continuous random variables the
probability at a point is always zero,

• This property of continuous r.v leads us to the following

important result:

• i.e, in case of continuous r.v, it does not matter whether we

include the end points of interval from a to b. However, this
result is, in general, not true for discrete random variables.
Example: The diameter of an electric cable, say X, is assumed to be
a continuous r.v with pdf:

a). Check that f(x) is pdf.

b). Compute P(X < 1/2).
Exercise: Let X be a continuous random variable with pdf:

a). Determine the constant a.

b). Compute P(X ≤ 1.5).
• Ans: a) . a = 1/2. b). P(X ≤ 1.5) = 1/2.
 Expectation: Mean and variance of Random Variable

Mean
Definition: The (mean) expected value of a random variable X
denoted by E(X) or μ is given by
i) E ( X )   xPX ( x) if X is discrete r.v.

  xf X ( x)dx if X is continuous r.v.

Variance
Definition: The variance of a random variable X denoted V(X) or σ2
is defined as V(X)=E[(X- μ)2] = E(X2) – μ2.
•if X is discrete, V ( X )  [ x 2 PX ( x)]   2

•if X is continuous, V ( X )  [  x 2 f X ( x)dx]   2


53
Example: Calculate the mean and variance of the random variable
X=number of heads of tossing a coin twice
1 1 1
E ( X )   xPX ( x)  0   1  2   1
4 2 4
1 2 1 2 1
E ( X )   x PX ( x)  0   1   2   1.5
2 2 2

4 2 4
V ( X )  E ( X 2 )   2  1.5  12  0.5
Example: The diameter of an electric cable, say X, is assumed to be
a continuous r.v with pdf:

Find the mean and variance of X.

1
E( X )   x 6 x (1  x ) dx  2 x 3  1.5 x 4  0.5
1
0
0
1
E( X )  x 6 x (1  x ) dx  1.5 x 4  1.2 x 5  0.3
2 2 1
0
0

Var ( X )  E ( X 2 )  [ E ( X )]2  0.3  0.5 2  0.05

 Common discrete probability distributions
Binomial Distribution
• A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the
following four requirements called assumptions of a binomial
distribution.
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial has only one of the two possible mutually exclusive
outcomes, success or a failure.
3. The probability of each outcome does not change from trial to trial,
and
4. The trials are independent, thus we must sample with replacement
Example
• Diagnose for a certain disease (present, absent)
• Surgery from a certain injury (successful, fail)
55
• The outcomes of the binomial experiment and the corresponding
probabilities of these outcomes are called Binomial Distribution.
• If X represents the number of successes that occur in the n trials,
then X is said to have binomial distribution with parameters n and
p. X ~ Binn, p 
• The probability mass function of a binomial distribution with
parameters n and p is given by

n x
P X  x     p 1  p  , x  0,1, 2,, n.
n x

 x
– Let p be probability of success and q=1-p be probability of
failure
• The mean and variance are
• E(X)=np
• Var(X)=np(1-p) 56
Example 6.3: A fair coin is flipped 4 times. Let X be the number of
heads appearing out of the four trials. Calculate the following
probabilities:
i. 2 heads will appear (Ans= 0.375)
ii. No head will appear (Ans= 0.0625)
iii. At least two heads will appear (Ans= 0.6875)
iv. Less than two heads will appear (Ans= 0.3125)
v. At most heads 2 will appear (Ans= 0.6875)
Exercise: An investigator notices that children develop chronic
bronchitis in the first year of life in 3 of 20 households in which both
parents have chronic bronchitis, as compared with the national
incidence of chronic bronchitis, which is 5% in the first year of life.
How likely are infants in at least 3 of 20 households to develop
chronic bronchitis if the probability of developing disease in any one
household is 0.05? (Ans= 0.0754) 57
 Poisson Distribution
• A random variable X is said to have a Poisson distribution if its
probability distribution is given by:
e   x
P X  x   , x  0,1, 2,
x!
• The Poisson distribution depends only on the average number of
occurrences per unit time of space.
• Note that poisson distributions is used to model situations where the
random variable X is the number of occurrences of a particular event
over a given period of time (or space).
• Together with this , the following conditions must also be fulfilled:
– events are independent of each other,
– events occur singly, and
– events occur at a constant rate (in other words for a given time interval the
mean number of occurrences is proportional to the length of the interval).
• The Poisson distribution is used as a distribution of rare events, such as
Number of misprints, Natural disasters like earth quake, Accidents.
• Mean and variance: E(X)=λ, variance(X)= λ
58
Example: Suppose the number of admissions to the emergency room at a
small hospital follows a Poisson distribution, but the incidence rate changes
on different days of the week. On a weekday there are on average two
admissions per day, while on weekend day there is on average one
admission per day.
A. What is the probability of three admissions on Wednesday?
(Ans: 0.1805)
B. What is the probability of at least one admission on Saturday?
(Ans:0.3679)
C. What is the expected number of admissions on a weekday?
(Ans:2)
Example: Suppose that the number of typographical errors on a single page
of this lecture note has a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = 1. if we
randomly select a page in this lecture note, calculate the probability that
A. No error will occur. (Ans:0.367879)
B. Exactly three errors will occur. (Ans:0.061313)
C. Less than 2 errors will occur. (Ans:0.73576)
D. There is at least one error. (Ans:0.632121)
59
 Uniform distribution
• We want to define a random variable X that is “equally likely”
to take on any value in some finite interval (a,b).
• Formally this is non sensical since the probability of a
continuous random variable assuming a particular value is
always 0.
• A better way of formalizing our intuition is that the probability
of X falling in a subinterval of (a , b) should depend only on
the length of the subinterval, not on its location within (a , b).
• The random variable X that satisfies this condition is the
uniform random variable. We write X~ uniform (a, b). It has
the probability density function

• E(X)=(a+b)/2 ,
Example 2. The random number generator in Excel is set to
produce numbers at random from 4 to 20 using a uniform
distribution. Let the random variable U denote the value of a
uniform random number.
a. What is the probability of getting a value less than 8?
(Ans= 0.25)
b. Calcúlate P(U > 6 AND U < 14) (Ans=0.5)
c. Calcúlate P(U > 15 OR U < 8)? (Ans=0.5625)
 Normal Probability Distribution
• A random variable X is said to have a normal distribution if its
probability density function is given by
1  x 
2
  
f x  
1 2  
e where x (-∞,∞ ), μ (-∞,∞ ) and σ (0,∞ ).
 2
– It is bell shaped and is symmetrical about its mean and it is
mesokurtic.
– It is asymptotic to the axis, i.e., it extends indefinitely in either
direction from the mean.
– It is a continuous distribution.
– It is a family of curves, i.e., every unique pair of mean and
standard deviation defines a different normal distribution.
– Total area under the curve sums to 1, i.e., the area of the
distribution on each side of the mean is 0.5
– It is unimodal, i.e., values mound up only in the center of the
curve.
62
• Since a normal distribution is a continuous probability
distribution, the probability that X lies between a and b is the area
bounded under the curve, from left to right by the vertical lines x =
a and x = b and below by the horizontal axis.

• However, evaluating P(a  X  b)   f X ( x)dxis very complicated.

a

• To facilitate this problem, we use the standard normal table which

gives area values bounded by two points.

63
• Note: To facilitate the use of normal distribution, the following
distribution known as the standard normal distribution was derived
by using the transformation
1
 z2
f z  
1 2
e
2
• Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution:
– Same as a normal distribution, but also...
• Mean is zero
• Variance is one
• Standard Deviation is one
• Areas under the standard normal distribution curve have been
tabulated in various ways.
• The most common tables give areas bounded between Z=0 and a
positive value of Z.

64
• In addition to the standard normal table, the properties of normal
distribution and the following theorem are useful to make
probability calculations very easy for any normal distribution.
Theorem : Standardization of a normal random variable. If X has a
normal distribution with mean, μ and standard deviation ,σ , then
i. X   will have a standard normal distribution.
Z

ii. a X  b
P ( a  X  b)  P (   )
  
a b
 P( Z )
 
• Example (read from table); determine the following probabilities

– P(0<Z<1.43)=? (Ans: 0.4236 )

– P(-1.2<Z<0)=? (Ans: 0.3849)

– P(Z<-1.43)=? (Ans: 0.0764 )

– P(-1.43≤Z<1.2)=? (Ans: 0.8085)

– P(Z≥1.52)=? (Ans: 0.0643 )

– P(Z≥-1.52)=? (Ans: 0.9357 ) 66

 • Remark:

pa  x  b  p  a
  x
  b
   p a
 z b
  for population
pa  x  b   p a s x  x x
s  bs x   p a s x  z  b s x  for sample
Example: Consider the distribution of serum cholesterol levels for all
20 to 74 year old males has a mean of 210 mg /100 ml, and the
standard deviation of 20 mg/100 ml. If an individual is selected from
the population randomly, what is the probability that
A. serum cholesterol level is between 200 and 240?
(Ans:0.6247)

B. serum cholesterol level is higher than 225? (Ans:0.2266)

67
Exercises
1. Glaucoma is an eye disease that is manifested by high
intraocular pressure (IOP). The distribution of IOP in the
general population is approximately normal with mean = 16
mm Hg and standard deviation = 3 mm Hg. If the normal range
for IOP is considered to be between 12 and 20 mm HG, then
what percentage of the general population would fall within
this range?
2. Assume that the test scores for a large class are normally
distributed with a mean of 74 and a standard deviation of 10.
A. Suppose that you receive a score of 88. What percent of the
class received scores higher than yours?
B. Suppose that the teacher wants to limit the number of A
grades in the class to no more than 20%. What would be the
lowest score for an A?
68
69
 Exponential Probability Distribution
• Used to model the length of time between two occurrences of an
event (the time between arrivals)

– Examples:

• Time between trucks arriving at an unloading dock

• Time between transactions at an ATM Machine

• Time between phone calls to the main operator

70
 Exponential Probability Distribution
• The exponential random variable T (t>0) has a probability density
function
λ t
f(t)  λ e for t  0
• Where

–  is the mean number of occurrences per unit time

– t is the number of time units until the next occurrence

– e = 2.71828

• T is said to follow an exponential probability distribution

71
 Exponential Probability Distribution
• Defined by a single parameter, its mean  (lambda)

• The cumulative distribution function (the probability that an

arrival time is less than some specified time t) is

λt
F(t)  1 e
where

e = mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

 = the population mean number of arrivals per unit

t = any value of the continuous variable where t > 0

72
 Exponential Probability Distribution
• Example: Customers arrive at the service counter at the rate of 15
per hour. What is the probability that the arrival time between
consecutive customers is less than three minutes?
• Solution:
 The mean number of arrivals per hour is 15, so  = 15
 Three minutes is .05 hours
 P(arrival time < .05) = 1 – e- X = 1 – e-(15)(.05) = 0.5276
 So there is a 52.76% probability that the arrival time between
successive customers is less than three minutes

73