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Overview
4. Probability and statistics / 4.5 Probability and expected outcomes
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Events and probability
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Table of Random events and sample space
contents


Let us consider a random experiment, for example rolling a regular dice.
Notebook Random experiments are those where, although we don't know the exact result
 in advance, we do know the set of all possible results. This set of all possible
Glossary outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space, U , of the
 experiment. For example, if the random experiment is rolling a dice, then the
Reading sample space of this experiment is the set of all possible outcomes on the
assistance

upper face of the dice, i.e. U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} .

 Be aware
Assume a dice has six sides unless you are told otherwise.

We denote the number of all possible outcomes that make up the sample
space U as n(U ) . Thus, for the random experiment of rolling a dice,
n(U ) = 6 .

Any subset of a sample space of a random experiment is called an event .

The event consists of one or more outcomes of the experiment. Each time an
experiment is repeated, it is considered a trial of the experiment. For example,
in the experiment of rolling a dice, the subset {2} of the sample space is an
event that can be described as 'the number on the face is 2'. The subset
{1, 3, 5} is an event that can be described as ‘the number on the face is odd’.

Example 1
★★☆

A coin is flipped four times. Find all the possible outcomes of the four coin-
flips, that is, the sample space S for this experiment.

The experiment is repeated, but this time only the number of heads is counted.
Find the sample space S for the second experiment.
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Heads or tails – what are the chances?

Credit: robynmac Getty Images

If we let H represent heads and T represent tails, then we can list all the
possible outcomes of the four coin-flips as follows.

Four heads can occur one way.

H −H −H −H

Three heads can occur four ways.

H −H −H −T

H −H −T −H ,
H −T −H −H

T −H −H −H

Two heads can occur six ways.

H −H −T −T

H −T −H −T

T −H −H −T

H −T −T −H

T −H −T −H

T −T −H −H

One head can occur four ways.

H −T −T −T

T −H −T −T

T −T −H −T

T −T −T −H

No heads can occur one way.

T −T −T −T

As you can see, there is a total of 16 possible outcomes for the four
coin-flips. The sample space is:

HHHH, HHHT , HHT H, HT HH, T HHH, HHT T , H

S = {
HT T H, T HT H, T T HH, HT T T , T HT T , T T HT , T T T H

The goal of the second experiment was simply to count the number of
heads in four flips, regardless of their sequence.
  Therefore, the sample space you are interested in is
 (https://intercom.help/kognity)
Overview S = {4H , 3H , 2H , 1H , 0H } .
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The name ‘heads’ refers to the fact that many countries have faces of
notable people on their coin currency. The other side has another
design and is referred to as ‘tails’. Some countries do not use faces on
their coins, but you can assign heads to one side for an experiment.

Experimental and theoretical probability

As we stated earlier, there are two types of probability: theoretical and
experimental. Experimental probability, also known as relative frequency , is
found inductively by repeating an experiment a number of times and counting
the number of times that particular outcome occurs.

 Exam tip
Experimental statistics is used extensively in a wide variety of fields.
In sports, managers determine which player would be the best one to
play in certain situations from data on how they have performed in
similar situations previously. When analysing large records of data,
financial analysts can detect fraud using Benford’s Law
(http://mathworld.wolfram.com/BenfordsLaw.html), a process
dependent on how often the leading digit of numbers in a list tends to
be a 1, 2, 3, etc. You might be surprised to learn that they are not
equally likely – 1 occurs approximately 30% of the time. Why do you
think that might happen?

A truly random experiment will have a long-term regularity in the

outcomes. For example, if we repeat the experiment of rolling a regular
(or fair) dice many times, i.e. for a really big number of trials, say N , we
will see that the number of times 2 appears on the upper face of the dice tends
to stabilise to one-sixth of the N rolls. Thus, we say that when rolling a fair
1
dice, the theoretical probability of getting a 2 on the upper face is . This is
6

also the theoretical probability of getting any other number . We would expect
that in a large number of trials, one-sixth of the rolls would have resulted in a
1 , one-sixth of the rolls would have resulted in a 3 , and so on, as the
experimental probability tends to approach the theoretical probability for a
large number of trials. Therefore, rolling a dice is a random experiment.

A significant concept when considering related events is whether or not the

events are mutually exclusive , meaning they do not share any outcomes –
they cannot occur together. For example, rolling a 2 and rolling an odd
  number would be mutually exclusive because 2 is not in the set of odd
 (https://intercom.help/kognity)
Overview numbers. Rolling a 2 and rolling a prime number would not be mutually
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c/sid- 100 ) the proportion of heads in the number of trials approaches 0.5. Why do
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Simulating the probability of getting a ‘Heads’ flipping a fair coin.

Thus, when running an experiment for N trials that results in an event

A occurring n(A) times, the probability of A happening, P(A) , is

n(A)
P(A) = lim N→∞ .
N

In probability theory, if an experiment has equally likely outcomes, the

probability of event A occurring is defined as

n(A)
P(A) =
n(U )

Number of outcomes in which A occurs

P(A) =
Total number of outcomes in the sample space

Finding probabilities deductively like this is what is known as

theoretical probability.

We have the following axioms for probability:

 Important
For any event A, 0 ⩽ P(A) ⩽ 1 .

The probability of nothing (o ) occurring is zero, i.e. P(o) = 0 , and

the probability of one of all the outcomes in the sample space
occurring , that is, of something occurring, is 1, i.e. P(U) = 1 .
 
If A and B are in U and are mutually exclusive, then the probability
(https://intercom.help/kognity)
Overview
of either A or B happening is P(A∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) .
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Example 2
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261340/o Four boys and six girls are waiting to see the doctor, but the receptionist does
not remember who arrived first. If the receptionist chooses one of the patients
at random, find the probability that a boy is chosen to see the doctor next.

Start with the formula for probability, letting B represent the boys
waiting and U represent all the people waiting for the doctor:

n(B)
P(B) =
n(U)

Since there are four boys, n(B) = 4 , while n(U ) = 10.

4 2
Therefore, P(B) = = = 0.4
10 5

 Exam tip
Unless a problem specifically asks for an answer in a certain form,
probabilities can be given as a fraction or decimal. When giving
answers as a decimal, remember to give them accurate to 3
significant figures.

Example 3
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For a normal 365-day year, find the theoretical probability that a person has a
birthday in August, assuming that a person is equally likely to be born any day
of the year.

Start with the formula for probability, letting A represent the event days
in August and U represent the days in a year:

n(A)
P(A) =
n(U)

Since August has 31 days in it, n(A) = 31, while n(U ) = 365 .
 31
 Therefore, P(A) = ≈ 0.0849 . (https://intercom.help/kognity)
Overview 365
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write the complement of A as A (spoken as ‘not A’). Thus, A and A exhaust
′ ′

c/sid- all possible outcomes, and are necessarily mutually exclusive, P(A ∪ A ) ′
= 1
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′
P(A ) = 1 − P(A) .

Thus, the complement to rolling a 2 with a regular dice, which itself has a
1 5
probability of , is rolling a 1, 3, 4, 5 or 6 , which has a probability of .C
6 6

ombined, these exhaust all possible outcomes for rolling a regular dice and
1 5
thus, add as + = 1 .
6 6

Example 4
★☆☆

Given your answer from Example 3 above, find the probability that a person
does not have their birthday in August.

Previously, we found the probability that someone is born in August to

be P(A) = 0.0849 .

The complement of being born in August is not being born in August, so

′
P(A ) = 1 − P(A) = 1 − 0.0849 = 0.9151

Some probabilities are not difficult to find, but they require numerous,
repetitive calculations. For example, suppose A represents serving an ace on
any serve in a volleyball match (an ace is a serve that your opponent cannot
return). If you know the probability of serving an ace on one serve and your
team serves the ball 25 times in a game, you could find the probability of
serving at least two aces by calculating
P(2A) + P(3A) + P(4A)+. . . +P(25A) . But, looking at it from a different
perspective, you could more easily use the complement to find it, by
calculating 1 − P(0A) − P(1A).

 Be aware
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Some of the more challenging probabilities to calculate are those that
(https://intercom.help/kognity)
least 1’ of event A. The easiest
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ask for the probability of getting ‘at
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P(at least 1A) = 1 − P(no A) = 1 − P(A )
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rest of this section is only relevant for exam preparation if you read this
section as part of the higher level analysis and approaches book.

Combinations are used to determine how many different ways you can choose
a group of r items in any order out of a group of n items, given by the formula
n!
n
Cr = . For example, if you want to assemble a committee of
r!(n − r)!

students and teachers to plan a school event, you could determine how many
possible committees you could have. If you want the committee to contain 3
of the 24 teachers and 12 of the 75 students, you can choose the 3 teachers out
of the group of 24 using the combination 24
C3 = 2024 . You can choose the
12 students out of the 75 using the combination 75
C12 = 26 123 889 412 400 .
Each of the 2024 different groups of teachers could be paired with any of the
26 123 889 412 400 groups of students to form the committee, so there are
2024 × 26 123 889 412 400 = 52 874 752 170 697 600 different committees
that could be formed.

Scenarios like these are typically beyond the level of this course, but it is
worth exploring briefly the fact that combinations can be applied when using
the basic probability formula, as you can see in Example 5.

Example 5
★★★

A deck of playing cards contains 52 cards. Suppose you select 5 cards. Find
the probability that exactly 2 of the cards are face cards (jack, queen, king).

Note that in a standard 52 -card deck there are four suits (clubs, diamonds,
hearts and spades). In each suit there are 13 cards (an ace, a jack, a queen, a
king and nine cards with numerals from 2 to 10 ).
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Standard 52 -card deck

Source: "English pattern playing cards deck

(https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:English_pattern_playing_cards_deck.svg)" by Dmitry

Fomin is in public domain.

To use the probability formula, you need to use combinations to find the
number of ways to select 2 face cards and the number of ways to select
5 cards.

If you want to select 2 face cards out of the 12 face cards in the deck,
there are 12
C2 = 66 ways to do that.

For each of those ways to get 2 face cards, there are many ways to draw
the other 3 cards. They need to be something other than a face card, and
there are 40
C3 = 9880 ways to draw them.

If F is the event ‘selecting two face cards’, then

n(F ) = 66 × 9880 = 652 080 .

The total number of ways you can choose 5 cards out of the 52 cards in
the deck is given by 52
C5 = 2 598 960 .

Finally, you can use the probability formula to find the answer:

652 080 209

P(F) = = ≈ 0.251 .
2 598 960 833

Complete section with 5 questions

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