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SOURCE: NRC (2007c), based on information from NASA and NOAA websites for mission
durations. Enhanced integrated assessment capability, including improved representation of diverse
elements of the coupled human-environment system in integrated assessment models, promises
benefits across a wide range of scientific fields as well as for supporting decision making. Another is
that, beyond the character of the innovation itself, it is essential to understand the role of the
decision and institutional environment in fostering or constraining its adoption (Lemos, 2008; Rayner
et al., 2005). Many of these concepts and research needs also emerge from the next two themes in
this chapter. End with a strong conclusion that restates your thesis in a different wording and sums
up what the reader should take away from the essay. A coordinated strategy for promoting and
integrating energy-related research is needed to ensure the most efficient use of investments among
these disciplines and activities. Finally, additional paleoclimate data from ice cores, corals, and ocean
sediments would be valuable for testing models and improving our understanding of the impacts of
sea level rise. Finally, as discussed in Chapter 10, there are a number of potential options for
reducing GHG emissions from the agricultural, fisheries, and aquaculture sectors through new
technologies or management strategies. While scientific research alone cannot determine what actions
should be taken in response to climate change, it can inform, assist, and support those who must
make these important decisions. For example, many of the conclusions and research
recommendations in Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (NRC, 2003b) and Radiative
Forcing of Climate Change (NRC, 2005d), such as those highlighted in the following two
paragraphs, remain highly relevant today. For example, nuclear reactors or hydroelectric systems
produce relatively few GHG emissions but have other environmental impacts (see, e.g., NRC,
2009d; NRC, 2009f), and it is not clear how to weight trade-offs across different types of impacts
(but see Huijbregts et al., 2008). Finally, LCA is not familiar to most consumers and policy makers
so its ultimate contribution to better decision making will depend on processes that encourage its
use. Creating a personal classroom management plan requires careful consideration of how you
envision your classroom culture fr. IAV assessments can aid in vulnerability and adaptation
assessments of the sort described in Theme 3 above. A variety of efforts are under way to develop
alternative indicators of both human well-being and of human impact on the environment that may
help monitor social and environmental change and the link between them (Frey, 2008; Hecht, 2005;
Krueger, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; Wackernagel et al., 2002; World Bank, 2006). Similar
difficulties could be in store for “smart meters,” which are promoted as devices that will allow
households to manage energy use to save money and reduce emissions, but which are often designed
mainly for the information needs of utility companies rather than consumers. As noted in Chapters 2
and 6, some of these feedbacks have the potential to dramatically accelerate global warming (e.g.,
the possibility that the current warming of permafrost in high-latitude regions will lead to melting of
frozen soils and release huge amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 into the atmosphere). It will also require
pursuing multiple emissions-reduction strategies across a range of sectors, as well as continued
research and development aimed at creating new emissions-reduction opportunities. These can all be
evaluated through scientific research efforts (NRC, 2010d; Oldenburg et al., 2009). For example,
research will be needed to improve understanding and analysis of the credibility and effectiveness of
specific approaches, including positive and negative unintended consequences. Global Climate
Change and Climate Protection: Current Summary. Third, people commonly use analogies,
associations, or simplified mental models to communicate or comprehend climate change, and these
simplifications can result in significant misunderstandings. Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to
achieving this capability is the lack of comprehensive, robust, and unbiased long-term global
observations of the climate system and other related human and environmental systems. Other
scientific and technical challenges. Successful application of seasonal climate forecasting tends to
follow a systems approach where forecasts are contextualized to the decision situation and
embedded within an array of other information relevant for risk management. Develop at least three
support paragraphs about your perspective. In addition to improved computational resources and
improved understanding of human and environmental systems, integrated assessment modeling
would also benefit from model intercomparison and assessment techniques similar to those employed
in models that focus on Earth system processes. Improved understanding of forcings, feedbacks, and
natural variability on regional scales is also needed. Often referred to as reanalysis, the fundamental
idea behind such efforts (see, e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996) is to use data assimilation methods to
capitalize on the wealth of disparate historical observations and integrate them with newer
observations, such as space-based data. Chapter 5 discusses how this broader, more integrated
climate change research enterprise might be formulated, organized, and conducted, and provides
recommendations for the new era of climate change research. Your essay must be focused, must
have clear and relevant details, must be well researched (with good, credible sources and accurate
documentation), and must be well presented and persuasive. Finally, a research enterprise that
includes the development, testing, and implementation of improved risk assessment approaches and
decision-support systems will enhance the capacity of decision makers in the coastal zone—as well
as other sectors—to respond effectively to climate change. The base in fundamental science for
designing more effective decision-support systems lies in the decision sciences and related fields of
scholarship, including cognitive science, communications research, and the full array of traditional
social and behavioral science disciplines. If validated against in situ measurements, such measures
can allow for monitoring of human-climate interactions at much finer spatial and temporal scales than
is currently feasible with surveys or other in situ measures of human variables.
While some research has focused on useful outputs for decision making and adaptation planning
(Luers et al., 2003; Moss et al., 2002; Polsky et al., 2007. Research is needed on processes for
providing decision support, including the operation of networks and intermediaries between the
producers and users of information for decision support. Several of the themes in this chapter
represent new or understudied elements of climate change science, while others represent established
research programs. Progress in all seven themes is needed (either iteratively or concurrently) because
they are synergistic. In addition to directly supporting research on the Earth system and specific
decision-making needs, these observations are critical for calibrating and validating satellite
measurements and for developing and testing climate and Earth system model parameterizations. To
make decisions about climate change, a basic understanding of the processes of climate change and
of how to evaluate the associated risks and potential benefits would be helpful for most audiences.
Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of
interest when they're released. For example, U.S. households could significantly reduce their GHG
emissions (and save money) by adopting more energy-efficient driving behaviors and by properly
maintaining automobiles and home heating and cooling systems (Dietz et al., 2009b). Research on
behavioral change suggests that a good portion of this potential could actually be achieved, but
further analysis is needed to develop and assess specific strategies, approaches, and incentives. These
and other examples of research needs for supporting actions to limit climate change are listed in
Table 4.4. The challenge of limiting climate change also engages many of the other research themes
identified in this chapter. A better understanding of the dependence of ocean heat uptake on vertical
mixing and the abrupt changes in polar reflectivity that follow the loss of summer sea ice in the
Arctic are some of the most critical improvements needed in ocean and Earth system models.
Improved data assimilation techniques have also led to improved data sets for analyses of climate
change. Given the global scope of satellite observations and the expense of designing, launching, and
operating satellites, the decadal survey (NRC, 2007c) and other reviews call for international
coordination as a key component of the nation’s satellite observation strategy. Around two-thirds of
the Hindu Kush Himalayan Glaciers may be lost by 2100. These systems should link existing data on
physical, ecological, social, economic, and health variables to each other and develop new data and
key indicators as needed” for estimating climate change vulnerabilities and informing responses
intended to limit and adapt to climate change. Research investments in the behavioral and social
sciences would expand this knowledge base, but such investments have been lacking in the past (e.g.,
NRC, 1990a, 1999a, 2003a, 2004b, 2005a, 2007f, 2009k). In the following sections, the seven
integrative, crosscutting research themes identified by the panel are discussed in detail. If validated
against in situ measurements, such measures can allow for monitoring of human-climate interactions
at much finer spatial and temporal scales than is currently feasible with surveys or other in situ
measures of human variables. Begin with a strong introduction that engages your reader and
provides a clear thesis at the end of the introduction. However, the development of each report
included input from and interactions with members of all five study groups; the membership of each
group is listed in Appendix A. Land that is not covered in ice absorbs the light from the sun making
the earth warmer. They can also either encourage or help us avoid situations where individual actions
lead to outcomes that are undesirable for both the individual and the group (sometimes called “the
tragedy of the commons”). SEC 455 Grand Canyon University Personal Classroom Management
Plan Paper. These analyses can then be used by decision makers to help decide where, how much,
and in what ways to intervene in human or environmental systems to reduce vulnerability, enhance
resilience, or improve efficient resource management (Eakin et al., 2009; Turner, 2009). Identification
of differences in vulnerability across space and time is both a pivotal research issue and a critical
way in which scientific research can provide input to decision makers as they make plans to adapt to
climate. In addition, the construction of channels and levees and other changes in the lower delta
have affected vegetation, especially the health of cypress swamps. Our ability to predict future
ecological impacts of climate. Improved data assimilation techniques have also led to improved data
sets for analyses of climate change. Institutions shape incentives and the flow of information. In
addition, a variety of institutional factors—such as distributed responsibility across many different
entities—complicate the development of a robust and integrated climate observing system. Format
your paper according to MLA style (Links to an external site.). Improved understanding of natural
variability modes is also critical for improving regional climate projections, especially on decadal time
scales.
It can also inform the design and implementation of national and international climate policies (see
Chapter 17 ). For example, crops respond to multiple and interacting changes in temperature,
moisture, CO 2, ozone, and other factors, such as pests, diseases, and weeds. A refutation paragraph
that cites another perspective on your topic and offers a rebuttal with textual evidence. Although
adoption of and resistance to innovation, especially in new technologies, have been extensively
studied (e.g., Stern et al., 2009), much of this research has been technology specific. We thought of
ways to prevent climate change and created a poster using the iPads. Research is needed to
understand how rapidly species and ecosystems can or cannot adjust in response to climate-related
changes and to understand the implications of such adjustments for ecosystem services. Of particular
concern are water resources for agriculture, which are influenced at regional scales by competition
from other uses as well as by changing frequency and intensity of rainfall. One of the major
contributions the social sciences can make to advancing the science of climate change is in the
understanding, development, assessment, and improvement of these decision-making processes. The
paleoclimate record indicates that such abrupt changes have occurred in the past, but our ability to
predict future abrupt changes is constrained by our limited understand-. Global Climate Change and
Climate Protection: Current Summary. For example, widespread adoption of batteries and fuel cells
would switch the main source of transportation energy from petroleum to electricity, but this switch
will only result in significant GHG emissions reductions if the electricity sector can provide low- and
no-GHG electricity on a large scale. An emphasis on climate and weather is evident, as is a decline in
the number of missions near the end of the decade. LCA has been used to examine the GHG
emissions and land use requirements of renewable energy technologies (e.g., NRC, 2009) and other
technolo-. Scientific research can, for example, help identify the information that decision makers
need, devise effective and broadly acceptable decision-making processes and decision-support
mechanisms, and enhance learning from experience. LCA has been used to examine the GHG
emissions and land use requirements of renewable energy technologies (e.g., NRC, 2009) and other
technolo-. Numerous decisions about climate change, including setting emissions targets and
developing and implementing adaptation plans, rest on understanding how the Earth system will
respond to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other climate forcings. Until recently, there has
been relatively little research focused on the development and implementation of climate-friendly
energy sources or land use practices, socioeconomic and behavioral processes that affect responses,
adaptation strategies, analytical approaches to evaluate trade-offs and unintended consequences of
actions, policy mechanisms, and other response issues. Ice dynamics and thermal expansion are the
main drivers of rising sea levels on a global basis, but ocean dynamics and coastal processes lead to
substantial spatial variability in local and regional rates of sea level rise (see Chapters 2 and 7 ). Note:
You must make a comment to enable your classmate to see your feedback. Third, people commonly
use analogies, associations, or simplified mental models to communicate or comprehend climate
change, and these simplifications can result in significant misunderstandings. However, as noted in
Chapter 7, precise projections are not easy to provide. As explored in the companion report Informing
an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b), there is still much to be learned about the
best ways of deploying science to support decision making. Register for a free account to start
saving and receiving special member only perks. This corresponds with the number of ice ages
throughout the earth’s history and has had effects on seasonality and the distribution of energy over
the earth’s surface. For example, in 2000, the coastal counties of California were home to 77 percent
of the state’s residents, 81 percent of jobs, and 86 percent of the state’s gross product—which
represents nearly 19 percent of the total U.S. economy (Kildow and Colgan, 2005). A number of
climate and climate-related processes have the potential to damage human and environmental
systems in the coastal zone, including sea level rise; saltwater intrusion; storm surge and damages
from flooding, inundation, and erosion; changes in the number and strength of coastal storms; and
overall changes in precipitation amounts and intensity. Meeting this expanded set of research
requirements will require changes in the way climate change research is supported, organized, and
conducted. Create an interesting title that captures the interest of your reader and focuses your
essay. Our report covers a great deal of scientific territory and has been accomplished over a
relatively short time period. An additional and valuable role of integrated assessment activities is to
help decision makers deal with uncertainty.
An emphasis on climate and weather is evident, as is a decline in the number of missions near the
end of the decade. The recommendations in Chapter 5 provide advice on some steps that can be
taken to address these challenges. Begin with a strong introduction that engages your reader and
provides a clear thesis at the end of the introduction. They can advise you on scales, time scales and
marking criteria. The aim of these approaches is not to overcome or reduce uncertainty. End with a
strong conclusion that restates your thesis in a different wording and sums up what the reader should
take away from the essay. The body of science reviewed by the Panel on Advancing the Science of
Climate Change makes a compelling case that climate change is occurring and suggests that it
threatens not just the environment and ecosystems of the world but the well-being of people today
and in future generations. The utility and potential applications of LCA have been recognized by
government agencies in the United States and around the world (EPA, 2010a; European Commission
Joint Research Centre, 2010) and by the private sector. For example, in 2000, the coastal counties of
California were home to 77 percent of the state’s residents, 81 percent of jobs, and 86 percent of the
state’s gross product—which represents nearly 19 percent of the total U.S. economy (Kildow and
Colgan, 2005). The design and evaluation of such mechanisms requires collaboration across
disciplines (including, for example, ecology and economics) and improvements in the ability to link
incentives with trade-offs and synergies among multiple services (Jack et al., 2008). Valuation of
goods and services that typically fall outside the realm of economic analysis remains a significant
research challenge, although a number of approaches have been developed and applied (Farber et al.,
2002). When trees are cut down, greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide is released into the
atmosphere. These models are based on numerical representations of fundamental Earth system
processes, such as the exchange of energy, moisture, and materials between the atmosphere and the
underlying ocean or land surface. Your instructor will review your recommendation and assign a
grade based on how well you met the criteria described above. Numerous decisions about climate
change, including setting emissions targets and developing and implementing adaptation plans, rest
on understanding how the Earth system will respond to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other
climate forcings. Such efforts, often referred to as geoengineering approaches, encompass two very
different categories of approaches: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, and solar
radiation management (SRM). Scientists are only beginning to understand how recent and longer-
term trends in weather influence perceptions of climate change (Hamilton and Keim, 2009; Joireman
et al., in press). It is also difficult to unambiguously attribute individual weather events to climate
change, and climate change is easily displaced by events people perceive as exceptional or simply as
more important at any one time (Fischhoff, 2007; Marx and Weber, 2009; Marx et al., 2007; Weber,
2006). For example, crops respond to multiple and interacting changes in temperature, moisture, CO
2, ozone, and other factors, such as pests, diseases, and weeds. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency
of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing
services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. A variety of
efforts are under way to develop alternative indicators of both human well-being and of human
impact on the environment that may help monitor social and environmental change and the link
between them (Frey, 2008; Hecht, 2005; Krueger, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; Wackernagel et al.,
2002; World Bank, 2006). Rising temperatures, new precipitation patterns, and other changes are
already affecting many aspects of human society and the natural world. Decisions based on
knowledge from multiple disciplines are thus much more likely to be effective than decisions that
rely on the perspective of a single discipline, and advances in the understanding of climate and
related environmental decision making are likely to require collaboration across multiple social
science disciplines (NRC, 1997a, 2002b). This paradigm currently has NASA developing and
demonstrating new observational techniques and measurements deemed useful for prediction or
other applications. Development of new fertilizers and fertilizer management strategies that reduce
emissions of N 2 O is one area of interest—one that may also yield benefits in terms of agricultural
contributions to other forms of pollution. Step 3: Contact Sustainable UCL Arrange a meeting with
Sustainable UCL to ensure your project can make a valuable contribution to UCL. Scientific
research, monitoring, and assessment activities can also assist in the ongoing evaluation of the
effectiveness and unintended consequences of different actions or set of actions as they are
taken—which is critical for supporting adaptive risk management and iterative decision making (see
Box 3.1 ). This section highlights some pressing research needs related to efforts to limit the
magnitude of future climate change. This is a case of twins born prematurely at 26 weeks age of
gestation. Changes in ocean circulations and heat transport are also connected to the rapid
disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. A coordinated strategy for promoting and
integrating energy-related research is needed to ensure the most efficient use of investments among
these disciplines and activities. Such observational data are most useful when geocoded (linked to
specific locations) and matched (aggregated or downscaled) to scales of interest to researchers and
decision makers, and when human and environmental data are collected and archived in ways that
facilitate linkages between these data. Likewise, in looking to the future, we emphasize the scientific
advances that could help decision makers identify, evaluate, and implement effective actions to limit
its magnitude and adapt to its impacts.