MGMT 642: Agile Project Management
MGMT 642: Agile Project Management
Shahrzad Khosravi, PMP, ACP, SP, RMP
Week 6
Outline
• Estimating Nature
• Drivers on Cost and Schedule
• Building Estimates
• Activity: Planning and Scheduling
• Assignments
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Estimating Nature
Relative Sizing and Story Points
• Fibonacci Sequence
Fibonacci Sequence, Math is Fun
5 2023-08-13
Relative Sizing and Story Points Continued
• Guidelines for Using Story Points
• Agile teams create their own estimates.
• The team should own the definition of their story points.
• Story point estimates should be all-inclusive.
• The point sizes should be relative.
• When disaggregating estimates, the totals don't need to match.
• Agile estimates are all encompassing; they should include time for
documentation and testing.
• Complexity, work effort, and risk should all be included in the estimates.
• User Story is recommended to be estimated in story points.
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Ideal Time
• Task is recommended to be estimated in ideal time.
• Example: Assume that after you have slept and performed essential
activities like washing, preparing food, and eating, you have 12
available hours left in your day. Now let's say that studying for the
SAFe exam will take you 60 hours. Using this information, calculate
the ideal time estimate and the likely time estimate for studying for
the exam.
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Ideal Time Continued
• Ideal Time: • Likely Time:
• If preparing for the exam • To come up with a likely time estimate,
we take other factors into account, like
theoretically takes 60 hours and work and family and the fact that there
we have 12 hours a day available, are nights when we arrive home and are
then we do the following too tired to think about anything.
calculation: • Perhaps it is more realistic to assume
• 60 / 12 = 5 that, on average, we will likely get 4
• So in ideal time, it should only take hours per week to spend on preparing
us 5 days to complete all studying for the exam.
required to pass the SAFe. • Using this information, we can do the
following calculation:
• 60 / 4 = 15
• So at this rate, it will take 15 weeks to
prepare for the exam.
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Drivers on Cost and Schedule
Estimation Considerations
• Optimism
• Progressive Elaboration
• Normalized / adjusted historical data
• Accounting for time
• Expert judgment
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How to Review an Estimate
• Review definition of the system
• Study ground rules, constraints, and assumptions
• Focus on data sources
• Compare estimate with established standards
• Determine whether methodology is acceptable
• Determine whether estimate is within target
• Consider customer expectations
• Look for "cost drivers“ (Cost of Delay) and "schedule drivers"
• Estimate Convergence Graph
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Estimating Stipulations
• Estimates are not: • Estimates must be:
• Carving the constraints • Based on a set of assumptions
• You’re given the deadline and you and collected data
fill your estimate within that! • Based on the current approved
• Bullying scope and project specifications
• You have to put your estimate • Changed when the project scope
within this! changes significantly
• Task negotiation • Changed when there are
• Random guesswork authorized changes in resources,
materials, services, and so forth
• Blind optimism
• Estimates are guesses; budgets
are only estimates.
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Cost of Delay
• “If you are going to quantify one thing, quantify the cost of delay,”
says lean thought leader Donald Reinertsen.
• Despite that compelling maxim, most product development
organizations today have little, if any, shared knowledge of the cost
of delay for each feature.
• To quantify the cost of delay is to answer the question: “What will be
the cost per time unit if we delayed delivery?”
• You can then compare your answer with the estimate to deliver the
feature with the highest cost of delay, and is cheapest to do, first.
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Cost of Delay Continued
• Considering Value and
risk = Cost of Delay
• Considering CD3 score
for value
• CD3 = Cost of Delay
Divided by Duration
• Then, prioritize by the
Cost of Delay
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Estimate Convergence Graph
PMI-ACP Exam Prep, by Mike Griffiths
15 2023-08-13
Building Estimates
Theme, Epics, Feature, User Stories, Tasks
• Epics are simply a collection of related User Stories, whereas Themes are broad
areas of focus with an associated business value.
• Feature can be a level in between Epic and User Story.
17 2023-08-13
Exploring Scrum, Dan Rawsthorne and Doug Shimp, 2011
Epic
Reasons a Backlog Item May Be an Epic (CURB)
Complex The item might be too complex to be understood well enough to be agreed to.
Unknown Maybe nobody on the Team knows enough about the Item to even make a guess whether or not
it can be agreed to.
Risky There are too many unknowns; it is too risk to agree to the item without further investigation or
a mitigation strategy.
Big The item could just be too big to do in one Sprint, even though it is well understood.
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User Story
The INVEST Criteria for ‘Good’ Stories (INVEST)
Independent • Stories should be internally independent during their execution; the success of one Story should not
depend on the success of another being done at the same time.
Negotiable • Stories are the negotiation units in Scrum; It is Stories that are agreed to in Planning and are delivered;
and the Team negotiates actual content of Stories during development.
Valuable • Stories are, by definition, units of value that are requested by Stakeholders or Team Members.
• The value can be external or internal – for Stakeholders or the Team.
Estimable • The Team needs to be able to agree to the Story, which implies that the Story’s effort could be estimated.
• However, some Stories are ambiguous and must be time-boxed
Small • Stories should be small enough that there is little confusion about what they mean, and so they can be
completed relatively quickly.
• Recommend a single focus per Story.
Testable • Stories should be testable; more precisely, each Story needs to be verifiable, so that the Team can
determine when it is Done.
• Doneness takes different forms for different Stories.
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Story Point
• StoryPoint
• A unit of relative size of a Story based on velocity. Story Points Meaning
• The Story's size in StoryPoints is usually determined by 100 Way too big
the Team using a consensus-based estimation method. 40 Really big (too big?)
• Roughly based on the Fibonacci sequence
20 A lot bigger than 5
• Each number is the sum of the two preceding ones,
starting from 0 and 1 13 More than twice as big as 5
• One benefit: Intended to avoid arguments over 8 Less than twice as big as 5
meaninglessly small details. Start 5 Middle-sized story
• Start by identifying the middle-sized story among the here
stories currently in the backlog and go from there. 3 More than half as big as 5
• Agile estimates are imprecise but accurate – an 2 Less than half as big as 5
estimate should be accurate enough to make decisions
with (accurate) but not estimated to the precision 1 A lot smaller than 5
where the estimating time diminishes the return value. ½ Tiny
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Velocity
• Velocity
• A measure of how fast a Team produces Results, and is defined as the number
of Story Points earned in a Sprint (#Story-Points per Sprint), where a Story's
StoryPoints are earned once the Story is Done (it meets its Agreement - no
partial credit).
• Velocity is the number of story points completed by a team in an iteration.
• Our team delivers 3 user stories. The sum of the story points equals 20. Our velocity is
then 20.
• If, in the next iteration, our team delivers 30 story points, then our average velocity is (20
SP + 30 SP) / 2 iterations = 25 SP.
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T-Shirt Sizing
• High-level estimating tool
that is used to do the initial
"coarse-grained" estimates
of the product features and
user stories during the
initiation stage of a project.
• Used at the pre-project and
early stage of a project.
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Adapted from Slide Team
Wideband Delphi
• Group-based estimation technique in which a panel
of experts submits estimates anonymously so that
none of the participants know who has made which
estimate.
• The estimates are collected iteratively until everyone
agrees on the final task list and estimate range.
• Question a number of people who have had
experience on a similar task (Subject Matter Experts
(SMEs))
• Best if done confidentially
• Responses are consolidated and returned to the
subject matter experts for comment
• Done repeatedly until consensus is reached
Estimation Techniques - Wideband Delphi, Tutorials Point
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Planning Poker
• Planning Poker is based on Delphi technique.
• Each participant receives a set of cards.
• The facilitator will read a user story.
• The group will discuss the story briefly and
then each estimator will select a card to
represent his/her estimate of the size of that
story, without showing it yet.
• When everyone is ready, the facilitator will
count to three, and then everyone will lay
down their cards at the same time, showing
their estimates of the effort required to
develop that user story.
• The group does this iteratively until everyone How to Play Planning Poker and Involve the Whole Team in Estimates,
agrees on the final task list and estimate range. Easy Agile
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Affinity Estimating
• After each round of estimating, we create columns on a whiteboard
that represent different story point sizes of user stories.
• Next, we start placing the user stories we have just estimated into the
appropriate columns.
• If the new user story looks like it is about the same size as the other
stories already posted in that column, then great.
• If that story looks different, however, we will need to do a checkpoint
to discuss what exactly a story point means, and then recalibrate the
estimates.
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Ideal Time
• Effort in hours / Ideal time
• How many hours will the story take for 1 person to do?
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Activity: Planning and Scheduling
Watch Videos about Delphi and Planning Poker
• Delphi Estimates: (1:16 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2A_Viq7RDM&ab_channel=Wiki4All
• Planning Poker: (8 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cBICmuf2C0&t=5s&ab_channel=Agilemania
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Agile Project Management Certifications
Clarifying terms – 4 ways we talk about managing
projects
• Approach: A theory, mindset about how projects should be managed.
• Framework/Standard:
• A loose but incomplete structure which leaves room for other practices and tools to be included but provides much of
the process required.
• e.g. SCRUM could be considered a framework, as it leaves room for teams to choose their own technical processes,
development roles, etc. (https://scrumguides.org/scrum-guide.html).
• Methodology:
• A system of practices, techniques, procedures, and rules used by those who work in a discipline.
• A complete set of processes, documents, practices to manage a project.
• e.g. PRINCE2, Kanban
• e.g. XP might be considered a methodology, as it provides guidelines for all the same things that Scrum does, along
with relevant technical practices.
• Practice:
• A specific type of professional or management activity that contributes to the execution of a process and that may
employ one or more techniques and tools.
• A routine
• e.g. Daily stand-up, Work Breakdown Structure, Kanban board, a risk Register
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World’s Best Known Project Management
Standardization/Certification Bodies
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Project Management Institute (PMI)
• Project Management Institute (PMI)
• Based in the United States, the PMI is seen by some as the main official source
for project management standards, certification, and promotion of the
profession.
• PMI issues the following project management certifications:
https://www.pmi.org/
• PMI publishes the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), which is
accepted in most parts of the world as the most authoritative project
management methodology.
• There are a number of “practice standards” which, together with the PMBOK
create a comprehensive project management methodology.
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International Project Management Association (IPMA)
• International Project Management Association (IPMA)
• Based in Switzerland, the IPMA is the global standards body for a network of
project management organizations throughout the world.
• Each country has an IPMA member organization through which the IPMA’s
certification and training activities take place.
• The member organizations issue IPMA’s project management certifications in
four levels: https://www.ipma.world/individuals/certification/
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International Project Management Association (IPMA) continued
• The IPMA publishes the Individual Competence
Baseline (ICB4)
• The ICB4 is the international standard on competence
for project, programme and portfolio managers.
• The competence needed for each of these domains is
defined in the following competence areas:
• “People”: how do you interact with the people around you, and
yourself;
• the “Practice” of our work: needed for Projects, Programmes and
Portfolios.
• the “Perspective” of the initiatives you’re running: the context within
which the initiative is run and the link to what needs to be achieved.
• In short, project management is an art as well as a
science.
• Whereas the PMBOK focuses almost purely on the From: https://pmac-agpc.ca/certification
science, the ICB retains a substantial focus on the art
form.
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Axelos
• Axelos
• Partially owned by the UK government, Axelos is the standards development body for the
PRINCE2 project management methodology.
• PRINCE2 is a system developed in the UK which is very similar in purpose (although not in
content) to the PMBOK.
• Axelos and PRINCE2 have a very basic structure.
• The methodology is maintained and updated by Axelos, and anyone wishing to demonstrate
their project management expertise can obtain the official guide and write the exam.
• There are no experience requirements, no courses to take, and no CV’s to submit.
• The certifications are: https://www.axelos.com/certifications
• PRINCE2 certification is much easier to obtain than PMP.
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Association for Project Management (APM)
• APM
• The Association for Project Management promotes the professional disciplines
of project management and programme management in the UK, where it is
the largest professional body of its kind.
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TenStep
• TenStep
• Helps companies implement their goals and strategies through the successful
execution of projects.
• Their consulting services help organizations establish an environment where
projects are successful.
• This includes helping set up and run PMOs, methodology customization and
deployment, portfolio optimization, strategic planning, contract staffing, and
much more.
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Comparisons
© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS.
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What is PMP?
• PMP certification is a popular certification among project management professionals, which is
administered by PMI (Project Management Institute), USA.
• PMI is headquartered in Philadelphia, USA and was founded in 1969 (www.pmi.org).
• It is the world’s leading not-for-profit membership association for the Project Management
profession.
• PMP stands for Project Management Professional.
• PMP certificate is most popular in the USA, Australia, and America. However, it is valued
worldwide within the project management domain.
• The PMP certification exam structure is primarily based on PMBOK.
• PMBOK guide is also called as a bible for project managers and stands for Project Management
Body Of Knowledge.
• The latest PMBOK Guide 6th Edition was published in Sep’17.
• PMBOK Guide Sixth Edition.pdf – Get one
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PMI Certifications
1. Project Management Professional (PMP)
2. Program Management Professional (PgMP)
3. Portfolio Management Professional (PfMP)
4. Certified Associate in Project Management (CAPM)
5. PMI Professional in Business Analysis (PMI-PBA)
6. PMI Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP)
7. PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)
8. PMI Scheduling Professional (PMI-SP)
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PRINCE2
• PRINCE2 Processes.pdf
• PRINCE2 Definition
• PRINCE2 (an acronym for PRojects IN Controlled Environments) is a de facto
process-based method for effective project management.
• Used extensively by the UK Government, PRINCE2 is also widely recognized
and used in the private sector, both in the UK and internationally.
• The PRINCE2 method is in the public domain, and offers non-proprietorial best
practice guidance on project management.
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What is PRINCE2?
• PRINCE2 is detailed project management method (HOW)
• PRINCE2 is a structured (sequential) project management method based on
principles and themes that originate from lessons learned from projects
• The PRINCE2 project management approach is:
• process based
• product based
• PRINCE2 provides easy to understand project lifecycle
• PRINCE2 creates project organization structure with clearly defined roles and
responsibilities
• PRINCE2 recognizes performance projects factors for time, costs, quality, scope,
benefits and risks
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PRINCE2 History
© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS.
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Project Definition
• PRINCE2 - "A temporary organization that is created for the purpose of
delivering one or more business products according to an agreed
Business Case“
• PMBOK – “A temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique
product, service, or result.”
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Process Model
• PRINCE2 • PMBOK
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© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS. From A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, 6th Edition (2017)
PRINCE2’s Other Process Model
• Two-stage project PRINCE2 model • One-stage project PRINCE2 model (shortest
possible version)
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© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS.
What PRINCE2 does not provide?
• PRINCE2 method does not include:
• Specialist aspects (PRINCE2 is purely general in nature, not industry/domain
specific)
• Detailed project management techniques (see PMBOK Guide)
• Leadership/coaching/mentoring skills
• Soft-skills
• Communication techniques
• Human resource management
• Contract negotiations
• Software for project management
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Key Benefits of Adopting PRINCE2
• Applies to any type or project and business domain
• Project security with EWIs (Early Warning Indicator) and risk management
• Accountability with clearly defined roles
• Project process analysis and optimization
• Efficient use of senior management time by “management by exception”
• A principle that establishes how management is delegated down the line of a PRINCE2 project. It
delegates authority for decision-making (the project board), managing (the project manager), and
delivering (project team members).
• License-free
• Full project control/assurance
• Common vocabulary and approach
• Tailored project documentation
• Proven integration with Agile (e.g. DSDM/Scrum)
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PRINCE2 Agile
• PRINCE2 and Integration with Agile
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© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS.
What are the different AXELOS Certifications?
• PRINCE2 2009 - Certification for Project Management
• PRINCE2 2017 - Certification for Project Management with tailored consideration including Agile
• PRINCE2 Agile – Based on agile approaches to provide PM solutions
• AgileSHIFT – Certification providing an enterprise agility solution
• MSP – Program Management Certification
• M_o_R – Risk management
• P3O – Project, Program, and Portfolio
• MoP – Portfolio management
• MoV – Value management
• ITIL – IT service management based on ITIL framework
• RESILIA – Cyber resilience
• PRINCE2 2009 certification offers two levels of project management certifications
• Foundation – Basic level
• Practitioner – Significantly valued
• While PRINCE2 2017 comprises of PRINCE2 Foundation and practitioner along with PRINCE2 Agile scheme.
• PRINCE2 Foundation and PRINCE2 Practitioner are the most common and widely accomplished certifications.
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Relationship with other AXELOS Global Best Practices
© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS.
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Relationship with other AXELOS Global Best
Practices and Models
© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS.
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How PRINCE2 Fits with Other AXELOS Global Best
Practice Guides
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© AXELOS Ltd. 2013. Material is reproduced under license from AXELOS.
PRINCE2 Vs PMP: How to choose the right
credential for your Project Management career?
• https://www.greycampus.com/blog/project-management/prince2-vs-pmp-how-
to-choose-the-right-credential-for-your-project-management-career
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61RnrsWQE7A&feature=youtu.be
• Prince2 or PMBOK – a question of choice Matos and Lopes 2013.pdf
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PMI-ACP Exam
• 120 questions
• 3 hours to complete it
• Exam questions will draw from a range of agile methodologies
• Qualifying to take the exam:
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From: PMI-ACP Handbook (2015)
The Seven Domains
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From: PMI-ACP Handbook (2015)
Domain Overviews
1. Agile Principles and Mindset: This domain focuses on the agile mindset, its fundamental values and
principles, the agile methodologies, and agile leadership.
2. Value-Driven Delivery: This domain deals with maximizing business value, including prioritization,
incremental delivery, testing, and validation.
3. Stakeholder Engagement: This domain focuses on working with the project stakeholders, including
establishing a shared vision, collaboration, communication, and interpersonal skills.
4. Team Performance: This domain focuses on building high-performing teams, including how teams form
and develop mastery, team empowerment, collaborative team spaces, and performance tracking.
5. Adaptive Planning: This domain deals with sizing, estimating, and planning, including adaptive planning,
progressive elaboration, value-based analysis and decomposition, and release and iteration planning.
6. Problem Detection and Resolution: This domain deals with the agile practices used to prevent, identify,
and resolve threats and issues, including catching problems early, tracking defects, managing risk, and
engaging the team in solving problems.
7. Continuous Improvement (Product, Process, People): This final domain focuses on continuous
improvement in the areas of product, process, and people, including process analysis and tailoring,
product feedback methods, reviews, and retrospectives.
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Agile Toolkit by Domain
Domain Tools and Techniques Knowledge and Skills
1. Agile Principles and Mindset • Servant leadership • Agile frameworks and terminology
• Agile methods and approaches
• Agile values and principles
• Leadership
2. Value-Driven Delivery • Agile tooling • Agile contracting
• Compliance • Agile project accounting principles
• Continuous integration • Incremental delivery
• Cumulative flow diagrams • Managing with agile KPIs
• Customer-valued prioritization • Prioritization
• EVM for agile projects • Regulatory compliance
• Frequent verification and validation
• Kanban board
• Kano analysis
• Minimal Marketable Feature (MMF)
• Minimal Viable Product (MVP)
• MoSCoW
• Relative prioritization / ranking
• ROI / NPV / IRR
• Task board
• Testing, including exploratory and usability
• Work In Progress (WIP)
• WIP limits
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Agile Toolkit by Domain Continued
Domain Tools and Techniques Knowledge and Skills
3. Stakeholder Engagement • Active listening • Agile project chartering
• Agile modeling • Assessing and incorporating community and stakeholder values
• Brainstorming • Communication management
• Chartering • Facilitation methods
• Collaboration • Knowledge sharing / written communication
• Collaboration games • Participatory decision models (convergent, shared collaboration)
• Conflict resolution • Stakeholder management
• Definition of done
• Emotional Intelligence
• Information radiator
• Negotiation
• Personas
• Social media-based communication
• Two-way communications (trustworthy,
conversation-driven)
• Wireframes
• Workshops
4. Team Performance • Adaptive leadership • Building agile teams
• Burndown / Burnup charts • Developmental mastery models (Tuckman, Dreyfus, Shu-Ha-Ri)
• Osmotic communication for collocated and/or • Global, cultural, and team diversity
distributed teams • Physical and virtual co-location
• Team space • Team motivation
• Velocity • Training, coaching, and mentoring
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Agile Toolkit by Domain Continued
Domain Tools and Techniques Knowledge and Skills
5. Adaptive Planning • Affinity estimating • Agile discovery
• Architectural spike • Agile sizing and estimation
• Backlog grooming / refinement • Value-based analysis and decomposition
• Daily stand-ups
• Ideal time
• Iteration and release planning
• Product roadmap
• Progressive elaboration
• Relative sizing / story points / T-shirt sizing
• Requirements reviews
• Risk-based spike
• Story maps
• Timeboxing
• User stories / backlog
• Wideband Delphi / Planning poker
6. Problem Detection and Resolution • Control limits • Problem solving
• Cycle time
• Defect rate
• Lead time
• Risk-adjusted backlog
• Risk burndown graphs
• Throughput / productivity
• Variance and trend analysis
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Agile Toolkit by Domain Continued
Domain Tools and Techniques Knowledge and Skills
7. Continuous Improvement • Approved iterations • Agile hybrid models
• Feedback methods • Continuous improvement
• Fishbone diagram analysis • PMI’s Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct
• Five Whys • Principles of system thinking (complex, adaptive, chaos)
• Kaizen • Process analysis
• Learning cycle • Self-assessment tools and techniques
• Pre-mortem (rule setting, failure analysis)
• Process tailoring
• Product feedback loop
• Retrospectives, Intraspectives
• Reviews
• Value stream mapping
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Assignments
Homework Problem 6: Agile Estimation
• Answer each question.
• Explain why and justify.
• Do NOT search the Internet.
• To be more consistent, please use below naming convention for your following
assignment:
• Homework6_[Last name]_[First letter of first name].pptx
• If file naming is not followed, there will be a grade deduction.
• Upload to the Homework section in Moodle.
• I will pick one group and the group will do 8-10 minute presentation at the start of the next
class.
• If you go under or over time, there will be a grade deduction.
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Homework Problem 6: Agile Estimation
Continued
• True or False
• Agile estimates are all encompassing; they should include time for documentation and testing.
• Agile estimates are timeboxed; once the estimates are set, they cannot be altered.
• Agile estimates are created by the product owner.
• Story points are preferable to ideal days, because story points better match estimate characteristics;
they are called "stories" because not all stories are true.
• Agile teams create their own estimates.
• Risk should not be factored into user story estimates.
• Teams new to agile should rely on an experienced project manager to create the estimates for them.
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Assignments due before next class
• Online forums
• One most interesting thing you learned about agile from today
• Weekly summary
• Review today’s lecture and summarize
• Homework Problem #6
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