ann/tri dates ventes mm4 mmc4 yt/mmc4

1 33
2 45
3 25 28.75 29.75 0.840336134
ann1 4 12 30.75 30.25 0.396694215
5 41 29.75 31.625 1.296442688
6 41 33.5 33.125 1.237735849
7 40 32.75 31.375 1.274900398
ann2 8 9 30 32 0.28125
9 30 34 33.125 0.905660377
10 57 32.25 33.625 1.695167286
11 33 35 38 0.868421053
ann3 12 20 41 41.125 0.486322188
13 54 41.25 41.625 1.297297297
14 58 42 42.625 1.360703812
15 36 43.25
ann4 16 25

ventes et mm4
70

60

50

40 ventes
mm4
30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
dates

ann/tri 1 2 3 4 totale
1 0.840336135 0.396694215
2 1.296442688 1.237735849 1.274900398 0.28125
 3 0.905660377 1.695167286 0.868421184 0.483622219
4 1.297297297 1.360703812
moyenne 1.166466787 1.43120231566667 0.994552572 0.387188811 3.979410487
indi sais 1.172502099 1.438607372 0.999698398 0.38919213 4

ann/tri 1 2 3 4
1 0.840082688 0.154390267
2 1.520081773 1.780615917 1.274515886 0.109460287
3 1.061888694 2.438680155 0.868159135 0.189272769
4 1.521083805 1.957518536

xt yt xy x2 y2
1 33 33 1 1089
2 45 90 4 2025
3 25 75 9 625
4 12 48 16 144
5 41 205 25 1681
6 41 246 36 1681
7 40 280 49 1600
8 9 72 64 81
9 30 270 81 900
10 57 570 100 3249
11 33 363 121 1089
12 20 240 144 400
13 54 702 169 2916
14 58 812 196 3364
15 36 540 225 1296
16 25 400 256 625
136 559 4946 1496 22765

x barre 8.5 a=0,5710

an/tr yt Y=0,5710X+30,0925yt/va
1 33 30.6635 1.076198086
2 45 31.2345 1.440714594
3 25 31.8055 0.786027574
4 12 32.3765 0.370639198
5 41 32.9475 1.244403976
 6 41 33.5185 1.223205096
7 40 34.0895 1.173381833
8 9 34.6605 0.259661574
9 30 35.2315 0.851510722
10 57 35.8025 1.592067593
11 33 36.3735 0.907253907
12 20 36.9445 0.541352569
13 54 37.5155 1.439405046
14 58 38.0865 1.522849304
15 36 38.6575 0.931255254
16 25 39.2285 0.637291765
y=a.Yt-1+(1-a)Yt-1
33
42
29.25
16.3125
34.828125
39.45703125
39.8642578125
16.716064453125
26.6790161132813
49.4197540283203
37.1049385070801
24.27623462677
46.5690586566925
55.1422646641731
40.7855661660433
28.9463915415108
0.75