17/12/23

COP-28: The UAE Consensus

 Basics: Recently in Dubai. Concluded on 12/12/23. Adoption of Dubai/UAE

consensus. 198 signatories. Divided opinion on the UAE consensus.
o Criticism for lack of targets and timelines; devil’s advocacy for the goals
set. Praise for the progress made and outcomes established.
 Countries have agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and
equitable manner to achieve net-zero by 2050.
o Equity in tackling climate change is driven from the debate over
Developed nations v. Developing nations + SIDS.
o Historic emissions of developed nations hence more contribution needed
from them.
 In previous conference of parties, there has not been a mention of
fossil fuels or their phase out.
o There are no timelines yet, only consensus that all fossil fuels need to be
done away with to prevent global temp. from rising further. Critics argue.
 Key highlights of the Dubai Consensus
o Biggest outcome: transition away from fossil fuels. Moving towards
greener and renewable sources. Achieve net zero by 2050
o Countries agreed on Economy wide nation reduction targets. Across all
sectors of the economy.
o Global Renewables & Energy Efficiency Pledge – signed by 118 countries.
Calls for 3x renewables capacity to 11000 GW + 2x energy efficiency to
more than 4% by 2030.
 India & China + other major emerging nations x sign this pledge.
 Since India is already committed to achieving a certain renewable
capacity under its NDCs; we do not want to overcommit and
overpromise. We do not want the pledge to hamper our growth
trajectory.
o Launch of Alterra Fund: UAE brought several private investors and
companies together to setup a $30 billion private finance vehicle to
catalyse climate financing. Mobilise $250 billion for global climate action.
o COP28 Declaration on Agri, Food & Climate embedding sustainable
agriculture and food systems in response to climate change.
o COP28 Declaration on Climate & Health accelerate the development of
sustainable, climate-resilient and equitable health systems.
o Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) Pledge:
 To advance the integration of sub-national leaders (at state
levels/provincial levels) in climate-related decision making.
o Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC):
 Commits signatories to zero methane emissions + end routine
flaring by 2030 and to net zero operations by 2050 at the latest.
 Why UAE Consensus matters: As per IPCC Synthesis report, 2023. Global avg
temp has increased by 1.1°C BY 2011-2020 compared to 1850-1900.
 Is this the end of fossil fuels?
o The Dubai Consensus is significant only because this is the first time since
1995, when the first ever COP was held in Berlin, that there is a formal
acknowledgement that emissions from fossil fuels are the main culprit
driving global warming.
o So far, all agreements have only spoken of the need to stem “greenhouse
gas emissions”.
 o This is despite it being common knowledge that three-fourth of such
emissions and 90% of carbon dioxide are the result of burning coal, oil
and gas.
o It was only in the COP26, in Glasgow in 2021, that countries agreed to
tackle coal — the fossil fuel with the biggest global warming footprint — by
agreeing to “phase down” its use.
 Coal v. Other fossil fuels
o It’s important to keep in mind here that “phase down” and “phase out”
have no meaning on their own because they do not refer to any specific
year by which the use of these fuels must terminate.
o Large, developing countries like India and China, have protested against
the singling out of coal among fossil fuels, on the grounds that they need
them for lifting their masses out of poverty and providing energy security.
o Now that all fossil fuels have been included in the Dubai Consensus, it
brings parity among fuels and acknowledgement that they all need to be
done away with.
o But because there are no timelines yet, fossil fuels are going to be the
mainstay of economies everywhere in the years to come.
 Can fossil fuels be immediately replaced?
o There is a well-oiled infrastructure system to extract, process and
distribute coal, oil and gas.
 Unfortunately, power from natural sources of power such as solar
and wind are not as easily available, on demand, as fossil fuel.
 The sun because of its unavailability at night and wind due to the
temperamental nature of the ocean and atmosphere.
o The infrastructure to store all of the energy produced this way is grossly
inadequate.
 Energy transition feasibility
o India’s National Electricity Plan, 2022-27, plans to add nearly 87,000 MW
in this period in the form of fresh coalfired capacity: 27,000 MW via under
construction power plants and 60,000 MW from new plants.
o Oil production in the U.S. has hit record levels.
o The Dubai Consensus agreement stating that a transition from fossil fuel,
while necessary, suggests that “transition fuels” could play a role in
“facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.”
 Though there is no definition of what these fuels are, natural gas
has been touted as one of the contenders.
o Even though natural gas production leads to methane emissions,
estimates by the International Energy Agency states that, switching from
coal to gas reduces emissions by 50% when producing electricity and by
33% when providing heat.
o Could disproportionately benefit gas producing countries.
 Methane Emissions
o Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and has several times more heat
trapping capabilities compared to carbon dioxide.
o It is a key component of natural gas and responsible for about a third of
planetary warming just behind carbon dioxide.
o The Global Methane Pledge to cut methane emissions 30% of 2020 levels
by 2030 was signed on by nearly 150 countries at the COP-27 summit in
Egypt, last year.
o China and the U.S. have also agreed to address industrial methane
emissions, that result from natural gas production.
o India has resisted pressure to cut methane emissions on the grounds that
most of its methane results from the agricultural sector.
o However, India has unveiled plans to make its energy production
processes more efficient to reduce its release